Condo Fever—I Don’t Sense It In The Air Anymore
A report from Mansion Global on New York. “Manhattan luxury housing is still feeling the summer sales slump, recording the worst activity since January in the week ending Sunday, according to the Olshan Report. Buyers signed contracts for just 12 homes priced at $4 million or more, one of the borough’s worst weeks this year, according to the weekly report. ‘For the first time since September 2016, not a single co-op went into contract,’ wrote Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty and author of the report.”
“The most expensive home to go into contract was a townhouse on Sutton Place, asking $12.995 million—a significant discount from the $19.5 milion the sellers originally wanted when they listed the home in October 2016. The second most expensive home to find a buyer was a brownstone asking $11.9 million in the West Village. The pending sale also marks a major discount from the initial listing price of $17 million.”
From 27 East in New York. “Construction on the Southampton Pointe condominium complex at the intersection of County Road 39 and Tuckahoe Lane is finished, according to the Corcoran Group. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in the past 10 years to build condominium complexes for zero-maintenance, turnkey, luxury living for aging baby boomers who want to downsize, or millennials looking to buy their first home—that is, if they can afford it.”
“The problem: Condos go through spikes in selling, with high highs and low lows. ‘I felt like condos was all we could talk about for years,’ said Carl Benincasa, a Douglas Elliman regional vice president of sales. ‘Condo fever—I don’t sense it in the air anymore. I think condos are a strong option and will continue to thrive in the Hamptons. But as prices have come down, perhaps the larger homes remain more attractive.’”
“Mary Slattery, the exclusive listing agent for Southampton Pointe, said luxury units have been on the market for about a year, during a time when the complex was not yet completed. Now that the construction dust has settled, and considerable price reductions have occurred for 16 select units priced under $1 million, she said several units are under contract—with the first closings anticipated for early October.”
“Because condos don’t appreciate the way single-family residences do, said Judi Desiderio, the CEO of Town & Country Real Estate, ‘people don’t go chasing them.’ On the other hand, there are condos that have struggled to sell because of overpricing—asking potential buyers to sign contracts for more than $3 million and put down more than 20 percent before the walls were even up.”
“That’s what happened in 2012, when what is now a three-story, 19-unit luxury condominium building called Harbor Edge at 21 West Water Street in Sag Harbor was nearing completion—and the owners, East End Development, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The complex is now open for business under a new investor, Longview Ultra, offering waterfront property.”
“In 2013, Corcoran brokered the first 20 units of the Watchcase condos in Sag Harbor from a trailer on the construction site. Two years later, developer Cape Advisors poured more than $40 million into renovating the late-19th century factory complex into luxurious, multimillion-dollar penthouses, bungalows and townhouses. ‘There have been nine units that we have re-sold, and there are currently five units as re-sales on the market,’ said listing agent Cee Scott Brown. ‘In most instances, either the apartment was purchased as an investment or major life changes mandated the sale.’”
The Miami New Times in Florida. “Earlier this year, real-estate analyst Peter Zalewski warned that South Florida developers had so overbuilt luxury condos for the global 1 percent that it would take an estimated four years to sell them all. At the rate condos were selling downtown, he found, the 505 available units would have taken nearly 6.5 years (78 months) to sell off during the slower, winter buying season. Well, the state of affairs in what Zalewski dubs ‘greater Downtown Miami’ has only gotten worse.”
“Now, according to a new report Zalewski’s CraneSpotters.com issued this week, there are even more luxury units available downtown: For sale are 559 ‘preconstruction’ units at an average price of $2.13 million. Even at the peak of the Miami summer real-estate ‘buying season,’ Zalewski warns, those 559 units could take 70 months — or 5.8 years — to sell off.”
“‘It is worth noting this report only tracks those Greater Downtown Miami condos formally listed for sale. The report does not factor in the nearly 47,500 new condo units currently in the development pipeline east of Interstate 95 in the tricounty South Florida region,’ Zalewski’s study ominously notes.”
“The overall trend is clear: Miami’s real-estate development community and public officials have approved a truly absurd number of new luxury condo projects pitched at global investors, rather than actual, homegrown Miamians.”
‘Because condos don’t appreciate the way single-family residences do, said Judi Desiderio, the CEO of Town & Country Real Estate, ‘people don’t go chasing them.’
The shacks out there have been cratering for years Judi.
My good friend Judi hasn’t learned the important but painful lesson that a house is a depreciating asset.
‘Even at the peak of the Miami summer real-estate ‘buying season,’ Zalewski warns, those 559 units could take 70 months — or 5.8 years — to sell off.’
‘It is worth noting this report only tracks those Greater Downtown Miami condos formally listed for sale. The report does not factor in the nearly 47,500 new condo units currently in the development pipeline’
I mentioned this when The Real Deal first ran this report. They didn’t mention the 20 year plus supply (in that price category) that’s under construction. Maybe these Miami guys can get some of those “inventory loans” we read about yesterday?
Centreville, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Fairfax County Meets the 2018 Housing Crash
https://www.movoto.com/centreville-va/market-trends/
‘The most expensive home to go into contract was a townhouse on Sutton Place, asking $12.995 million—a significant discount from the $19.5 milion the sellers originally wanted when they listed the home in October 2016. The second most expensive home to find a buyer was a brownstone asking $11.9 million in the West Village. The pending sale also marks a major discount from the initial listing price of $17 million’
Outlier.
Let’s all observe a moment of silence for the millions of Yellen Bux that perished in those transactions.
Let’s all observe a moment of silence for the millions of Yellen Bux that perished in those transactions.
How does not getting one’s asking price === yellen bux perishing? I get the phrase when someone loses money (of course, the initial seller has those bux so they’ve not died), but I’m not sure how it applies just because a seller had to lower their asking price?
“…considerable price reductions have occurred…”
Outliers, outliers, everywhere,
Nor any deals to ink.
‘In 2013, Corcoran brokered the first 20 units of the Watchcase condos in Sag Harbor from a trailer on the construction site. Two years later, developer Cape Advisors poured more than $40 million into renovating the late-19th century factory complex into luxurious, multimillion-dollar penthouses, bungalows and townhouses. ‘There have been nine units that we have re-sold, and there are currently five units as re-sales on the market,’ said listing agent Cee Scott Brown.’
You actually were inside a trailer Cee? Gosh, I hope you didn’t have to sit down or anything.
‘In most instances, either the apartment was purchased as an investment or major life changes mandated the sale.’
So they got divorced or were gambling.
Perhaps more subprime lending can save the US housing market.
New loan programs target home buyers with just 3% down—or less
Published: Aug 13, 2018 9:36 a.m. ET
Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s affordable mortgages
Bloomberg
By Hal M. Bundrick
This article is reprinted by permission from NerdWallet.
For years, the Federal Housing Administration was the king of the low-down-payment mortgage mountain. Now, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises that provide capital to the mortgage market, are designing loan products for hopeful home buyers with skinny savings accounts.
With Fannie Mae’s HomeReady and Freddie Mac’s Home Possible, a 3% down payment — or what lenders refer to as 97% loan-to-value — is available on so-called conventional loans. Conventional loans are the loan products most often issued by lenders.
…
I was telling “strong lending” Dan about that article. Here’s one bit:
‘While Home Possible will continue to be Freddie Mac’s “flagship” affordable mortgage product, Patricia Harmon, senior product manager at Freddie Mac, says there’s even more flexibility in a new program called HomeOne.’
‘At least one borrower must be a first-time home buyer, but there are no income limits or geographic restrictions’
No income limits? Shazam!
What did Freddie call the one for illegal immigrants? You know, the one where unlimited people could say they were renting a room to help qualify.
Shoot, I don’t remember that program either. But IIRC, rental income has always counted toward the buyer’s income. The new feature was that a buyer could add 5% more income from anyone who was not formally renting a room. So, any buyer could use his income, his wife’s income, rental income from dicey “bedrooms” in the basement, plus 5% more from some guy sleeping on the couch. When I was househunting in 2012, I saw quite a bit of that.
Any word on Mel Watts’s harassment case? If he goes, you can bet Trump will install someone who will shut off this nonsense.
Maybe 2% for every white van parked outside,on the lawn or otherwise
Fannie and Freddie have been shuckin’ out 3% DP mortgages since 2011.
Nothing says subprime like 3% down payments.
Interesting thing about the GSE’s is that they’re “pro-cyclical”, not “counter-cyclical”. Meaning as prices run up, they increase max loan amounts, then loosen loan quality standards, boosting prices further.
Not a secret to anyone who watches this, and recently, looks like it creates a time bomb. However, it suits the decision makers just fine. Specifically, rising real estate prices increases politicians’ coffers. Interestingly, so do casinos.
WARNING! THE FOLLOWING POST IS OFF TOPIC!
“United Nations Leader Warns of a Cash Shortage - The New York Times”
“The secretary general of the United Nations said Thursday that its cash supply had been severely depleted because of what he described as delayed contributions by many member states, and he warned the organization’s employees that they must find ways to cut expenses.”
(snip)
“The United States, by far the biggest single contributor at 22 percent of the budget, has not yet paid, but diplomats said the Americans typically completed their payments toward the end of the year.”
(snip)
“The reminder came against a backdrop of pressure on the United Nations to control its expenses, which has been led by the American ambassador, Nikki R. Haley.
“After the budget committee of the General Assembly agreed last December to a $5.4 billion budget for 2018-2019, Ms. Haley took credit for a $285 million cut from the previous budget.
“The inefficiency and overspending of the United Nations are well known,” she said at the time. “We will no longer let the generosity of the American people be taken advantage of or remain unchecked.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/world/americas/united-nations-leader-warns-of-a-cash-shortage.html
This is another case where people want to feel important without actually doing any decent work. Funneling money to corrupt regimes etc.
Why do the top brass of UN need to stay in New York. If they were really interested in providing support to war torn regions they would be on the ground in those countries.
Apparently one of the major expenses is the peace keeping force (PKF). Is force really needed to keep peace. UN was supposed to foster peace.
“Why do the top brass of UN need to stay in New York.”
Because that’s where the white women frolic.
Logan, UT Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Builders Chop Prices
https://www.movoto.com/logan-ut/market-trends/
“Crater”. Stupid fear mongering. That’s a correction you fool.
August 5, 2018
A report from The Real Deal on New York. “Westchester residents, many trying to avoid the hefty tax bill that 2018 promises, are finding themselves in an unforgiving buyers’ market. Prices in the county fell 18 percent in the second quarter of 2018, with homes asking between $1.5 million to $3 million faring the worst, according to Bloomberg. In Scarsdale alone, prices dipped 5 percent in the first six months of 2018, while Mamaroneck saw a 13 percent drop.”
“As a result, the number of homes for sale in Westchester has been increasing: in late June, inventory was up 5 percent compared to last year and, for homes priced between $2-2.5 million, listings were up 26 percent.”
“Buyers are feeling no sympathy for homeowners who bet on turning a neat profit when they decided to sell off their prestige address. Compass broker Angela Retelny says her clients tell her ‘Look, I’m not going to spend more than $35,000 in taxes.’ … Houses are just being dismissed, even though they’re superior homes, and they have to be reduced — because their taxes are just way too high for the price range.’”
“With buyers taking a hard line, sellers are being forced to bend, according to her. There are ‘dramatic price reductions every single day — every hour, pretty much,’ she told Bloomberg.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.php?s=westchester
Sounds like more than a correction troll.
He’s an Outliar.
‘dramatic price reductions every single day — every hour, pretty much,’
Outliers, every single one of them.
Why is the REIC categorically against the interests of buyers. Don’t the geniuses running our housing policy realize that continually pricing out young families results in an abysmally low birthrate?
U.S. Birth Rate Cut in Half Since 1950’s, Expected to Remain Below Replacement Level into Next Century
George Marks/Retrofile/Getty Images
22 Jul 2018
Washington, D.C.
The United States birth rate has been cut in half since the 1950’s, with the country’s fertility expected to remain below replacement level into the next century.
In a revealing chart released by Axios’ Harry Stevens, the U.S. birth rate is tracked between 1950 to the year 2100. Between 1950 to 1955, the U.S. birth rate was about 3.3 children per woman.
Between 1955 to 1960, the U.S. birth rate peaked with nearly 3.6 children being born per woman.
…
Why so angry, Tom?
A lot of low life’s on this website/board. Most here live with their parents or have been renting the past 10 years. Now they are hoping for an economic downturn to have their chance to buy. Good luck with your loan when you lose your job and your purchasing power vanishes. Home ownership is not a get rich quick scheme. People buy for the long term to raise families. An apartment or renting is no way to live. Most like to know what their cost of living will be so they can make decisions. You all missed out. I would take advantage of the recent correction if you have been waiting on the sidelines. By May next year you will see record high’s again. Bull market is not over yet. Will go to at least 2020 if not 2022. The technology we have at are disposable is unreal. Wake up you clowns.
I let this troll’s comment go through to show readers why I don’t bother with them any more. He’s an ass-hat from the get go. Know nothing generalizations and lame school yard put downs. Nothing to add. And it will only get more foul mouthed and pointless as it is allowed to go on.
At one time I allowed trolls. And people would say, don’t feed the trolls. But that doesn’t work. Next thing you know I’m spending several hours a day moderating this horse-shit. And I’ve got better thing to do.
‘The technology we have at are disposable is unreal’
Seems incoherent. Substance abuse, I reckon.
Debt slavery can drive a person insane. Drip, drip, drip away flows your life servicing the bank. You have to believe you’re going to get rich through being in debt, which is totally illogical.
It’s another DebtDonkey Stampede Of One. One braying donkey at a time.
He’s just another doubting Thomas.
Flagler Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Retirement/Vacation Property Demand Collapses
https://www.movoto.com/flagler-beach-fl/market-trends/
Q: Would you allow these troll comments through if he provided some evidence and/or detail to back up his claims? I’d be very interested in who “we” is and what “technology” we have at our disposal. Uber? Automated cherry-picking? Self-driving Segways?
More ways to print money? Does he have some inside info?
‘we have at are disposable ‘
Flying cars?
He seems like an angry guy on a drinking binge. Probably lost a bundle on his real estate HODLings and came here to vent. The grammar and spelling issues are a dead giveaway.
Must be visiting from city-data or biggerpockets.
have been renting the past 10 years
I’ve been renting in South Denver for the past 8+ years.
The freedom of renting has given me the ability to live a lifestyle than most of you loanowners would find incalculable.
renting is no way to live
I haven’t mowed a lawn since 2006. And I don’t shovel my own parking lot, there’s a snowplow contractor who does that.
Ben Jones, these loanowners have such a crab-bucket mentality, it’s sad
I spent the last four or so weeks on the beach and doing my art on my boat. The tops of my feet are as tan as my hands.
I can live this way for the rest of my life because I didn’t have a mortgage on a bubble house for the past 15 years.
Hip.hip.hooray! … many way$ knot to bee a fool$ in America, congrat$ to yer $trategy!
Sing it Willie! …”nothin’ but Blue Skye’s do eye $ee …”
“The tops of my feet are as tan as my hands.”
Tans don’t lie.
Blue, you were fortunate to have a relatively high-pay job in a low-cost area. I tried that in the Midwest but couldn’t hold the job in the recession. Yes, I paid probably three times in MD for an equivalent house where you live. But I’m also making double the income — and that double income will last for 25+ years. It outweighs the higher cost of living.
I chose the job that would let me live anywhere. Fortunate indeed. Also, I think I paid 1/10th what you did for what is probably an equivalent house. Given the mortgage and taxes, maybe 1/20th. No traffic and no commute. Yes, I’ve been fortunate.
Mowing the lawn in 100+ degree heat is a sucky way to spend your weekend. Been there, done that… but not for over two decades now. I volantarily mowed my sister’s yard for old times’ sake during a recent visit, but generally don’t miss it at all.
A lot of low life’s on this website/board. Most here live with their parents or have been renting the past 10 years.</I?
You have us all wrong, Tom. Most HBB posters, and Ben himself, sob inconsolably whenever a flipper or speculator gets their head handed to them.
I’m probably the least knowledgable person on here (relative to real estate) and I can see this guy is a fool. Sometimes I think the trolls are sincere but just uninformed or in denial, but this guy is delusional.
Also, I’m close to deciding on whether or not to take a new job out of state… and you know what I’m not thinking about? Selling a house! Mobility is a valuable asset.
I’ve lived in 13 different rentals (10 apartments, 1 condo, 2 houses) since 1992. In that time, I’ve owned one house. I was only unhappy with my residence during the time when I owned the house and I didn’t get screwed or take a huge loan. Life isn’t just about turning a buck. How you actually live your life, and if it is congruent with your personality is really f’ing important.
I get it. A fella said to me “There’s more to life than the beach.”
Tom.$uck.my.own$.thumb$.Mcke$$on, … tank$ for edicatin’$ u$ $kippy!
Wow you have just confirmed that the Boise market is headed for a crash !
An apartment or renting is no way to live.
The last two jobs I got involved moving a few hundred miles. Most companies won’t pay to buy the house etc. unless you have a unique skill, or they really want you.
But you know what. Because I was Renting I just left and took the better paying and most importantly better lifestyle job.
renting has a lot of perks. If you want a home, rent one.
I prefer a house but that’s just me.
Everybody - meet Tom “Short Bus” McKesson.
A lot of low life’s on this website/board. Most here live with their parents or have been renting the past 10 years.
Yep, I’m a low-life who’s been renting the past 10 years. Sold my house in 2008. Life’s been good to me since then — cashed in on my company’s IPO, met the woman I intend to spend the rest of my life with, have travelled the world and get to spend my money on things that make me happy.
Do I wish I had a house I could use as the foundation for settling down in life? Sure — would love to build out a great wine cellar, have a few acres, go for walks on my property, etc. But I’d have to give up too much to do that right now — I’m still stacking cash and enjoying the ability to focus on living life to the fullest before paying cash for my toe-tag house.
In the interim, I can walk to work and spend my time responding to trolls on a housing blog vs mowing the lawn, cleaning the gutters, etc.
“A lot of low life’s on this website/board. —snipped—”
@Tom-
Whew… feel better now?
There’s a decent bit of cognitive dissonance in this post (”Home ownership is not a get rich quick scheme” vs “You all missed out”, that there’s been a recent “correction” while Case Shiller reports no such thing, etc).
But here’s my point: every option has costs and benefits, financial and lifestyle-wise. You’re not going to find nirvana in a house. Bills still gotta be paid, people still gonna get sick, chores still gotta be done.
Speaking of air, the air quality in Denver is really bad right now.
I was driving back into town on 285 an hour ago and normally when crossing Windy Point you can see the downtown and tech center skyline, but today just brown/grey haze.
Don’t move to Denver unless you want your kidz to have asthma.
That’s from California fires I think.
It’s a nasty place to live. Good base camp to go do other things from, but the day to day quality of life here has been continuously dropping for the past few years. Make your money in Denver. And go buy some fun somewhere else. That’s the only way to live here.
Make your money in Denver. And go buy some fun somewhere else.
If you’re gonna do that you might as well do it in California. For techies anyway.
Where da dog?
Denver air was terrible 40 years ago. So Cal sir seemed to get better.
Salt Lake City air is also terrible nowadays. When the inversion (cold weather) hits, the mountain bowl traps all the pollution in. At least on the coast it can disperse a bit.
That’s been a recurring phenomenon at least since I started visiting SLC with my wife over a quarter century ago.
PS Refineries at the base of the mountains in close proximity to bedroom communities is not good for the residents’ air quality.
Got Sahara dust?
THE DUST IS BACK! More African dust blows over Houston through Tuesday
By Travis Herzog
Monday, August 13, 2018 06:37AM
https://abc13.com/weather/the-dust-is-back-more-haze-from-african-dust-now-overhead/2245790/
“Speaking of air, the air quality in Denver is really bad right now.”
Visibility at 2.00-mi with winds out of the SW in the Columbia Basin right now, and it was worse this morning. No cycling workout in this schitt!
Is there a fire in the Columbia Basin? Seems like one of the worst fire seasons on record in the West this year.
There are, or recently have been, fires to north and west of us. The Columbia Basin itself is largely desert sage brush, no forest.
Tarzana, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Technology Accelerates Los Angeles Area Housing Bust
https://www.zillow.com/tarzana-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘In most instances, either the apartment was purchased as an investment or major life changes mandated the sale.’
Bankruptcy related to flopped real estate “investments” no doubt qualifies as a major life change.
“The overall trend is clear: Miami’s real-estate development community and public officials have approved a truly absurd number of new luxury condo projects pitched at global investors, rather than actual, homegrown Miamians.”
Miami’s public officials, like those in nearly every other U.S. municipality, are on the make and on the take from developers and special interests. When will the sheeple wake up and start electing non-crooks to represent them?
Condo fever—I don’t sense it in the air anymore.
No, I sense something else - fear.
So, Condomentum is over????
da bear
If finding a “dream home” can be a nightmare due to crazy prices and low inventory, here’s a novel idea: wait for the impending housing bubble bust.
https://gazette.com/business/in-colorado-springs-finding-a-dream-home-can-be-a/article_b40b18ec-860c-11e8-8880-bf996aaa4f5b.html
Inventory?
This is a very big country with lots of open space. One can arrange not to be in the middle of the 10 lane quite easily.
I have heard that for years. Yes there is a lot of open space but its the quality of that open space thats the problem. Good topsoil and good water that is what is becoming less available.
Good topsoil and good water that is what is becoming less available.
If that’s your top priority there is a ton of space in the midwest. Usually it sells fairly cheap by coastal standards.
Washington DC Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Crushing Housing Losses Clobber Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/washington-dc-20003/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Owning a condo was the worst thing I ever owned (I owned some pretty shitty vehicles and some Enron stock). Didnt much feel as I actually “owned” it as the rules and regulations prevented many activities and changes / upgrades from happening. I bought this condo because of the low maintenance for my lazy ass. Well within the 6 years I was there I replaced every appliance, water heater 2x, hvac, both decks (fought the HOA on paying for that because the HOA president and a couple other board members had there’s paid for and got reimbursed about 1/2). I really really started hating my neighbors, the board, my shack I “owned”. Finally after having my 2nd son and getting complaints about children playing in the front or back yard from new retirees whom moved in, joined the board, and started changing rules so they had a perfect calm peaceful place to relax and how dare any kids disturb them with laughter or the sounds of playing. I finally had it and put it on the market and decided to rent while the insanity of the housing boom slowed down. My HOA started at under $150/mo when we purchased and was at $540/mo 6 years later. I wouldnt be surprised if that was now at $600. Been very happy renting for the last 1yr and a half and we have a two car garage, big front and back yard, no longer pay for maintenance or appliances, we have the freedom to move at any moment to anywhere. I will likely buy again in the future especially if I can do a full cash buy but I’m way to stubborn to overpay now and pay more property tax than I have too. Oh and Tom is prob a realaturd in denial of what’s soon to come and not come to him financially