August 15, 2018

The Glut Is A Sign The Market Is Weakening

A report from the Times Free Press in Tennessee. “Already, rising home prices and mortgage rates have cut into some home sales, keeping overall sales of single-family homes relatively stable despite the overall improving economy. In June, for instance, single-family home sales by Chattanooga Realtors were down 5 percent from a year earlier. Credit standards are higher than before the Great Recession so qualifying for a mortgage is more difficult than a generation ago for many young home buyers. In response, the Tennessee Valley Federal Credit Union (TVFCU) said it is offering a no downpayment mortgage for those with strong credit ratings and good income ‘and we’re really killing it with that product,’ TVFCU President Todd Fortner said. ‘This is our most popular mortgage product right now,’ he said.”

“Home prices in Chattanooga during the second quarter already rose twice the rate of inflation.”

From ABC 7 News in California. “What was once the murder capital of the U.S. is now a town selling multi-million dollar homes - East Palo Alto. Forty-four percent of students in the Ravenswood School District are considered homeless. Schools Superintendent Gloria Hernandez-Goff said, ‘Families that are split up with children in a friend’s house and another child in a friend’s house. Their parents are sleeping in cars.’”

“East Palo Alto has always been a working community. Most residents hold down two jobs to survive. Simply put, the socio-economic condition has not caught up with the rising home and rental prices.”

From Northern Nevada Business View. “In July, sales of single family homes in Washoe County decreased 17 percent compared to July 2017. While this drop in unit sales may seem high, it can be attributed to the seasonal cycle we see annually, but also due to the fact that there’s not enough supply of homes to buy. What we have seen is that year-to-date sales are lagging behind prior years. Does this mean we have reached the peak?”

“A correction in housing, like in any market sector. is normal, foreseeable and possible. In February 2018, we started to see a shift for the first time in 16 months that pending sales were not tracking closely with new listings coming on the market. You only need to drive around the Reno-Sparks area to see the number of new home projects coming online. When they are in full swing, I expect the resale market will adjust.”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Prospective buyers of Metro Orlando homes who sat on the sidelines in June might have scored a bit of a bargain in July as prices dropped 1.3 percent during the month, according to Orlando Regional Realtor Association. The median sale price dropped for all home types to $235,000 – down $3,000 from a month earlier. It’s the second time in three months that prices dropped month-to-month, with a $4,000 drop recorded between April and May.”

“Among numbers that have remained consistent from June to July: Pace of sales: Down 2 percent. Distressed sales: 3.6 percent of all sales. Supply of listed homes: 2.2 months. Pending sales: Down 9.9 percent for the second straight month.”

The Dallas Observer in Texas. “Rent prices in Dallas are known to skew high. The August 2018 National Apartment List Rent Report shows Dallas has a median rent of $894 for a one-bedroom apartment. While that’s nowhere near as high as rents get in the suburbs, the near constant rise of new developments such as the 400-unit tower at 2000 Ross Ave. has done much to add high-priced square footage to the local apartment market.”

“‘I mean prices are just ridiculous,’ says Kara Zielinski, a local realtor and agent for The Locators Real Estate Brokerage. ‘If I was to pinpoint it to a neighborhood, I would say Uptown proper and then also the Arts District for sure, and those are like $2,500 [a month] easy. It’s crazy.’”

“Here are 10 of Dallas’ most expensive apartment complexes with vacancies to spare: One Uptown. It’s our first Uptown entry to make the list but certainly not the last. At one point rent for a 571-square-foot entry-level unit ran for as high as $1,805. With the recent slump in rent price, $1,600 per month will get you in the building.”

From Williamette Week in Oregon. “Renters who can afford an apartment in one of the new luxury towers sprouting up across Portland are now being offered cash incentives to move in. Take the Emery, a seven-story building along the South Waterfront. It has nine apartments available within the next two months, starting with a $1,356-a-month one-bedroom. There’s air conditioning, a shared bike if you don’t have one, a bike room if you do, a pet washing station, and a clubhouse for parties. And there’s a bonus for some units: a $1,000 gift card from Amazon to encourage prospective renters to sign a lease.”

“Not far away, at Sky3 in the West End, the owners as recently as last week were giving some tenants a $1,000 Visa check card and six weeks free rent to move in. (Studios there start at $1,328 a month.) That’s just the start. As of last month, at least 33 high-end buildings in the central city and South Waterfront have more than 700 apartments sitting vacant or available for rent within the next two months, according to numbers WW found via publicly available listings and on a private management company spreadsheet.”

“So landlords in those buildings are advertising concessions: free rent for as long as eight weeks, along with other perks like gift cards, free parking and a yearlong free membership at a nearby health club. Even Burnside 26—the building that captured Portland’s imagination in 2015 as a symbol of invading yuppies driving out artists—is now offering six weeks free rent.”

“The deals represent a 180-degree change for a Portland housing market that’s seen relentlessly rising rents and vacancy rates lower than 3 percent. New construction has sent a flood of new luxury apartments onto the market—by December, it’ll be 12,000 units over two years—and they’re arriving at a faster clip than landlords can fill them.”

“‘It’s a sign that the market is weakening,’ says Portland economist Joe Cortright. ‘The last thing that apartment owners want to discount is the rent on a building. One-time offers—gift cards, free parking, waived deposits or other fees—it’s an indication they’re scrambling to fill apartments. It tends to predict that rents should ease further.’”

“The glut of new buildings is having a larger effect. After years of rent hikes, last month brought news that the average rent in Portland had fallen. From June 2016 through June 2017, average rent for one-bedroom apartments dropped 3 percent, according to ApartmentList. Data from real estate company CBRE show rents fell 3.1 percent during the last quarter of 2017 alone. That’s the largest drop in a single quarter since the early 2000s.”

“‘The market works, but with a lag,’ writes Cortright. “After lagging well behind demand in the early post-recession years, housing supply has finally caught up, with the predictable effect that rents have flattened out and now clearly started to decline.’”




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133 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 07:51:25

‘You only need to drive around the Reno-Sparks area to see the number of new home projects coming online’

Ebola.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 08:17:44

‘Prospective buyers of Metro Orlando homes who sat on the sidelines in June might have scored a bit of a bargain in July as prices dropped’

Ebola again-a! Gosh, I bet there’s some trolls who are hopping mad right now.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-15 20:33:28

Just wait until prices are off by 30%, and they discover that the Bush/Obama bailouts are not part of the Trump economics team playbook. That’s when the rage cage shortage will really hit home.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-16 09:45:52

If that happens then we will get a real correction to flush things out. Hope springs eternal.

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 09:35:19

The Reno-Sparks housing market is the biggest bubble in the US. It is 100% speculation and CA locust money.

Comment by taxpayers
2018-08-15 10:20:51

obviously running out of dessert

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 10:22:21

That’ll never happen at the Golden Corral.

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Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:13:21

CA locusts swarming the Golden Corral in Reno, seeking refuge from the Nevada ebola epidemic.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 15:43:23

Note to $elf: ( do knot di$embark @ Amtrak Reno Depot ) … Winnemucca bound!

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-15 10:47:08

Reno’s elevation is high enough for snow to drift, so you can’t avoid shoveling it. “It’s gotta be done, Tom, gotta be done!”

 
 
Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-15 13:09:20

I like how you cherry pick your data. No mention that prices are still on a vertical climb even though sales are down. Funny how that works in a centrally planned ZIRP environment. It is all by design and coordinated.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 14:59:03

^^Angry Realtwhore.

Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:14:46

Son, you remember what I taught you about realtoRs, don’t ya? “realtoRs are liars“.

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Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:16:53

So, foobarbaz. Now that sales are down and a whole truckload of new housing developments are coming online, what do you think is going to happen to prices next? Zillow shows me that house prices have been declining during the prime selling season in many places across the United States. Do you think the trend will reverse with sales declining and new units coming on board faster than existing units can sell?

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-08-15 22:51:29

Housing prices can continue to outpace wage growth indefinitely, just like they have done for the past 7 years, you just need to believe. I think the new Dumbo movie is coming out, go watch that and just believe. If you believe, anything is possible!

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 15:49:03

“I like how you cherry pick your data.”

Here pick any cherrie$ between Jan 1$t 20007 - Dec 31$t 2008

“Well punk, do ya feel lucky? … well do ya?” … Lt. Callahand

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 07:54:14

‘The deals represent a 180-degree change for a Portland housing market that’s seen relentlessly rising rents and vacancy rates lower than 3 percent. New construction has sent a flood of new luxury apartments onto the market—by December, it’ll be 12,000 units over two years—and they’re arriving at a faster clip than landlords can fill them’

That’s some shortage. Golly, I guess some of those landlords might have trouble paying their bills. Lucky for them, the tenants in Portland are likely to remember how kind the landlords were all these years and start crowdfunding rescue money to pay the mortgages.

Or maybe not?

Comment by near_seattle
2018-08-15 09:31:20

“…the building that captured Portland’s imagination in 2015 as a symbol of invading yuppies driving out artists…”

Hoo boy, that shark was jumped in Portland some time around 2003.

Comment by whirlyite
2018-08-15 10:46:56

Yuppie? I thought the current term was hipster.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-15 11:02:37

Yuppies are upwardly mobile. Pretty sure hipsters gave up on that. They’re probably siblings though. Neither are likely to be from Wyoming.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2018-08-15 12:56:47

Wyoming is just about the last stand. Boise, long a holdout, is gone. Parts of Montana are falling as we speak.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-15 13:30:02

“Wyoming is what America was”. For better and worse.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 14:16:12

all WY ha$ to do is $ub$titute Catapiller’$ coal diggin’ machine$ for China $pinnin’ wind blade$ delivered on BN$F & UP Rail car$… they can still party from Jack$on to Laramie with their $ki’s & lariat$ … Big Truck$ & $now boards!

(Is wind $hortage an i$$ue?)

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-08-15 13:15:31

Was anyone ever touting a shortage in luxury apartments? If anything, they were touting a shortage of housing in general (especially affordable), so they used that shortage to build luxury housing for tax breaks or to sell to a greater fool. The usual privatizing of the profits…

By the way, isn’t there *still* a shortage of affordable units?

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-15 15:31:10

No shortage of housing inventory. Not here, not there, not anywhere.

Portland, OR Rental Rates Crater 9% YOY As Record High Housing Inventory Goes Higher

https://www.zillow.com/downtown-portland-or/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-15 08:01:56

Mukilteo, WA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Seattle Area Tech Layoffs Accelerate

https://www.movoto.com/mukilteo-wa/market-trends/

Comment by Daz
2018-08-15 08:20:12

I’m confused. I have asked before but still not clear. Yes, I see down 14% but when broken down Condos TH’s are up 3% YOY and SFH’s are only down 5%. Please help explain how they have a number of -14% ?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 08:26:40

So long as prices are cratering, all is well.

 
Comment by SWFL
2018-08-15 09:50:26

Funny math

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 09:53:06

crushing.housing.losses.

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Comment by Magoo
2018-08-15 11:58:16

Don’t bother questioning it, they will just ask you to install a FireFox plugin. The median home size fell 27% per their data, so it stands to reason the median sales price will be lower. Again, it won’t be moderated, you have to switch to FireFox and install a plugin.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 12:36:49

Again.$/sq ft valuation is a poor performer as it excludes all items in the transaction except for the structure and the area of dirt directly under it.

Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Miami Mortgage Meltdown Heats Up

https://www.movoto.com/miami-beach-fl/market-trends/

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 13:09:21

You expect Ben to moderate when it doesn’t suit your tastes or opinions? Wow.

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 13:11:34

Personally speaking, I like to see as many comments as possible. Trolls don’t even bother me. I like to see both sides of the story, not live in an echo chamber.

I am so sick and tired of this snowflake bullsh!t, where everything is censored and a narrative is crafted.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 13:13:12

This blog is one of the last places on the net where real information is disseminated. It’s laid out there bare.

 
Comment by Magoo
2018-08-15 13:29:00

I agree, but if we’re talking about “real information” we should be able to ask about basic contradictions in that information. Daz asked:
“I’m confused. I have asked before but still not clear. Yes, I see down 14% but when broken down Condos TH’s are up 3% YOY and SFH’s are only down 5%. Please help explain how they have a number of -14% ?”

Can I just say “Home prices down 90%” with no data to back it up, and that’s ok on this blog because we don’t want censorship? Isn’t posting false or misleading data “crafting a narrative”? If I said home prices are UP 90% without data to back it up, that would certainly be censored under the heading “Troll”, isn’t that snowflake censorship?

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 13:47:04

This blog is one of the last places on the net where real information is disseminated. It’s laid out there bare.

Right. Here’s Margot Robbie in a bubble bath on “The Big Short” explaining bankster creative finance that caused the meltdown of Housing Bubble 1.0. Laid out there bare for educational purposes only.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epb98OcFLZE

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 14:22:12

Nobody is censored. You can put up your own money, spend the time to maintain a website. Moderate comments. Once you’ve done all that get back to me about how many hours you would spend - every-freaking-day - moderating the comments of a bunch of assholes. I did it for a three years and grew tired of it.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 14:23:38

He’s provided the links which back up the numbers he’s posting. A lot of whining from you lately.

 
Comment by rms
2018-08-15 14:54:48

“Here’s Margot Robbie…”

Wondering if I could get her to iron my shirts?

 
 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:32:42

According to the little chart labeled “Market Statistics”, the price per square foot in Mukilteo, WA has been trending down since May. Is it normal for prices to decrease in the summer in Washington?

I have no clue why the houses would be shrinking so much though.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-15 18:16:45

why the houses would be shrinking

Larger houses were a mega trend the entire time the housing bubble was forming. The more house you buy the richer you will become… People increaaasingly bought impractical houses they couldn’t furnish, let alone populate.

A shift to more practical housing is to be expected when prices stop rising. JMO.

 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 19:00:22

That makes sense.

 
Comment by Montana
2018-08-15 20:16:23

Does it ever actually happen?

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-08-15 22:57:38

Regarding large houses, this is worth posting again I think:

“As you can see, most square footage is wasted as people tend to gather around the kitchen and the television, while avoiding the dining room and porch.”

““The findings were not pretty. In fact, they helped prove how little we use our big homes for things other than clutter,” Adcock said. “Most families don’t use large areas of their homes — which means they’ve essentially wasted money on space they don’t need.””

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-american-dream-of-owning-a-big-home-is-way-overrated-in-one-chart-2018-05-21

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:28:33

Maybe there is also land and mobile homes mixed into those numbers.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 08:15:21

‘the Tennessee Valley Federal Credit Union (TVFCU) said it is offering a no downpayment mortgage for those with strong credit ratings and good income ‘and we’re really killing it with that product,’ TVFCU President Todd Fortner said. ‘This is our most popular mortgage product right now’

We all know that people with strong credit and good income need to put zero down.

They do this because they are running out of buyers.

Comment by b
2018-08-15 08:37:15

Credit Union exes are not paid on shareprice etc. They should be paid on great service, keeping admin costs low, and safety of deposits of their members.

Why the heck is Todd invested in a no downpayment offering …

 
Comment by taxpayers
2018-08-15 10:23:05

this a dept of AG 0% down make smelly mel look conservative

 
Comment by whirlyite
2018-08-15 10:48:05

I had strong credit and good income before I got laid off.

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-08-15 13:17:27

but i sill have safe drivers insurance

 
 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:37:38

They are killing what with the product? Their future prospects? Down payments aren’t there for the benefit of the borrower, duh.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 08:23:04

‘What was once the murder capital of the U.S. is now a town selling multi-million dollar homes - East Palo Alto. Forty-four percent of students in the Ravenswood School District are considered homeless. Schools Superintendent Gloria Hernandez-Goff said, ‘Families that are split up with children in a friend’s house and another child in a friend’s house. Their parents are sleeping in cars.’

Well schools are important for shack prices.

 
Comment by b
2018-08-15 08:26:49

Another rental complex approved in Seattle - in the middle of Belltown. On the smaller side 104 units, 14 floors —- but 25 are affordable cost units. Generally, in Seattle the builders have provided $s to build the affordable units is a separate building. Imagine what the rents are going to be for the regular renters.

https://news.theregistryps.com/104-unit-project-in-seattles-belltown-neighborhood-approved-at-early-design-guidance-meeting/

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 08:27:44

No worrie$ about any Min$ky moment fla$hbang grenade$ being to$$ed until the long lever$ puller$ get unpacked from their $ummer ending $oriee’$.

‘If there were ever a moment to harve$t gain$…it is August 2018,’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd

By Mark DeCambre / Published: Aug 15, 2018 / MarketWatch

‘If there were ever a moment to harves$t gain$ and reduce ri$k, it is August 2018. And if it turns out not to be the moment, I don’t think you are giving up much up$ide.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 08:37:41

Fear and loathing in cryptocurrencies [Video]
Yahoo Finance · 1 hour ago
Reddit users share suicide helpline on cryptocurrency page after bitcoin price crash
The Independent · 22 hours ago
More for crypto suicide
Web results
Crypto market crash prompts suicide concerns - Yahoo Finance
https://finance.yahoo.com/…/crypto-market-crash-prompts-suicide-concerns-1352482...

2 hours ago - Crypto market crash prompts suicide concerns. … On Tuesday, one of the top posts on the popular bitcoin forum of Reddit was information for suicide prevention hotlines. … So futures expire in one day, alts just capitulated 20%, hodlers are on suicide watch, bitcoin shorts are stacked …
Reddit users share suicide helpline on cryptocurrency page after …
https://www.independent.co.uk › LIFE › Tech › News

23 hours ago - Support forums for suicide prevention are being shared on cryptocurrency forums amid concerns for the mental health of bitcoin investors after a major market downturn. The price of bitcoin dropped to around $6,000 on Tuesday, down from above $8,000 at the beginning of August.
College Student Commits Suicide After Mounting Cryptocurrency …
https://www.reddit.com/…/CryptoCurrency/…/college_student_commits_suicide_after...

Feb 4, 2018 - But these scumbags put together “suicide” and “crypto currency” and saw $$$. It’s just another shitty attempt to label crypto as a bad thing, …
+1(800)273-8255 - U.S. National Suicide Hotline
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Let’s talk about suicide. Let’s talk about when someone chooses to take their own life and end it all. What has this got to do with cryptocurrencies? In the coming …
Suicide By Speculation: Crypto Volatility Chokes Adoption | Crypto …
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Jun 24, 2018 - Speculation on crypto price has for a long time been the main route … Suicide by speculation - how crypto price crashes are killing the market …
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Apr 3, 2018 - He estimates 70 percent of his friends who traded crypto lost money. … in cryptocurrency was reported dead by suicide on February 1st.
Russian crypto-millionaire, 23, found dead in St. Petersburg apartment …
https://www.rt.com/business/425819-russian-cryptocurrency-millionaire-death-suicide/

May 4, 2018 - He may have committed suicide according to Russian tabloids. … Russian crypto-millionaire, 23, found dead in St. Petersburg apartment.
Trader Threatens to Commit Suicide, as Millions Worth of Bitcoin Were …
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/…/okex-incident-shows-responsible-trading-importanc...

Mar 30, 2018 - He was trying to commit suicide right in front of the okex office. … Crypto Experts Say Bitcoin Will be Much Stronger This Time Around.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 08:39:27

Bob, Tom, foobar, I’m seriously. If you are getting that sinking feeling, reach out. Get help. Yes, it’s more money than you’ll earn the rest of your lives, but hey, it was cheaper than renting.

1(800)273-8255 - U.S. National Suicide Hotline

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 08:50:09

Uh-Oh: Some Observations from Both Sides of the Refrigerator Door: by Robert Fulghum

Steve Bannon says he own$ bitcoin$ and is working on his own cryptocurrency

“Too many investor$ get blown out by thing$ that aren’t thought through,” he said.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom /Published Wed, 18 July 2018

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 09:11:25

Maybe we should come up with slogans for the hot line? How about:

“No one put a gun to your head to take that shack loan, so don’t put a gun to your head if you’re stuck underwater!”

Just Walk Away

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ttKJwvFIgw

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Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 18:17:36

I never make light of suicide. Had a close friend that opted for that exit strategy, thinking his estranged wife and two young daughters would be better off with his insurance than with him, especially as depressed as he was with losing a huge sum in the markets (ironically, shorting based on fundamentals, when Zimbabwe Ben and Yellen the Felon ensured that fundamentals don’t matter). Taking his own life has brought tremendous pain to the people he most cared about.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-15 18:25:33

I have a suggestion. If you were living in the world of virtual currency or virtual home equity, the perfect suicide is a virtual one. End your virtual life and join reality!

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-08-15 23:00:06

Logic - 1-800-273-8255 ft. Alessia Cara, Khalid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kb24RrHIbFk

 
 
 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 09:47:14

This 20% price spike in a day is the shot of heroin they needed:

https://www.coinbase.com/charts

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 11:02:46

Don’t lo$e yer phone, iffin’ it contain$ yer digital wallet$ too!

BITCOIN$

Cryptocurrency inve$tor robbed via his cellphone account $ues AT&T for $224 million over lo$$

AT&T was the plaintiff’s cellphone provider at the time.
The U.S. investor accuses the telecommunications giant of negligence that allegedly caused him to lose roughly $24 million in cryptocurrency.

“What AT&T did was like a hotel giving a thief with a fake ID a room key and a key to the room safe to steal jewelry in the safe from the rightful owner,” the complaint alleges.

Kate Rooney / CNBC

In a 69-page complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, Michael Terpin claimed that because of “AT&T’s willing cooperation with the hacker, gross negligence, violation of its statutory duties, and failure to adhere to its commitments in its Privacy Policy,” he lost nearly $24 million worth of cryptocurrency.

Terpin, who was using AT&T as his service provider, said the digital tokens were stolen through a “digital identity theft” of his cellphone account. Terpin was the victim of two hacks within seven months.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2018-08-15 13:06:29

Its a really really big scam……why not call it affordable luxury units for people who dont make enough to pay full price?

What ?? do they put sears appliances, home depot cabinets, commercial carpeting, washer dryer in the basement, Formica countertops and NO dishwasher in the cheaper units?

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-08-15 08:58:01

Bank grants a 100% ,30 year Refi to a 77 yr old.
So she has to live till 107 to pay it off.

Comment by b
2018-08-15 09:08:57

good for her - what does she care if the smartest bankers and regulators give her $s. If i were 77, i would buy expensive bottles of Brandy or Whisky and sip them on my porch.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 10:53:05

“i would buy expensive bottles of Brandy or Whisky and sip them on my porch.”

Eyes agree, … Why knot?

Tanks! & Cheers!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BcjKTDIRCKI

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-08-15 13:13:46

If the wife or kids are co-signers on the loan they will inherit the loan smart move for the bank. If not then we all should get the same deal when we are 77 and live life to the fullest.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2018-08-15 08:59:17

Its all crumbling down again…early stages like 2007…lots of up and down until it all collapses again

Comment by rms
2018-08-15 10:49:33

Like a roller coaster… a long slow climb, and then whoosh!

 
 
Comment by b
2018-08-15 09:04:58

RE: Dallas most expensive rental complexes

I understand if you are only going to be in the area for 1 or 2 years and you like nice things. But spending $3500 US per month on a 1 bedroom is kinda crazy

“1 Bedroom $1,878 – $3,759
While some luxury apartment complexes may be a bit more austere in their presentation, this complex is much more bombastic. Designed to feel more like a luxury hotel than a luxury apartment, The Ashton’s amenities are near overwhelming. Residents get access to more than 200 private clubs across the country, including Canyon Creek Country Club and Gleneagles Country Club. Monthly events, like cooking classes and comedy nights, as well as personal concierge and valet service, are included. What’s more, a baseline unit runs slightly larger, starting at just over 900 square feet. All things considered, this place is downright affordable.”

 
Comment by Sean
2018-08-15 09:10:44

“The glut of new buildings is having a larger effect. After years of rent hikes, last month brought news that the average rent in Portland had fallen.”

Glut…………There’s that word again. Too bad nobody predicted this.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 09:12:42

Rents have been falling in Portland for a year at least.

Comment by Sean
2018-08-15 09:30:14

Oh at least. I’m just stretching out my “nobody predicted this” line for the Experts and Analysts in the coming future. It’s warming up in the bullpen.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 10:17:22

That reminds me of something. These trolls that showed up recently didn’t mention that I had said there was going to be gluts and there was no shortage of shacks in say, Seattle, because as soon as speculators think the jig is up they would flood the market. Is it possible they didn’t read what I said then?

Maybe they only showed up here now that gamblers out there on the internets are getting skerd and are lashing out? Why that would be highly irrational, as nothing is going to save them from their actions. If every person who reads this blog swore there wasn’t a bubble it wouldn’t change one dang thing.

Possibly the trolling has more to do with this:

https://grief.com/the-five-stages-of-grief/

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 10:27:03

The fields are ripe, the RageCages full….. and the thresher just broke over the hill.

 
Comment by Sean
2018-08-15 11:30:23

“Is it possible they didn’t read what I said then?”

No,they didn’t read any of it. Most people don’t read the article and just jump right to their opinion - like the kid in junior high who writes a book report on a book he didn’t read.

Years ago NPR had an April Fools Prank on Facebook. It was a link to a fake article that says “Congratulations, you wanted to read something. Just click like if you get the joke, but do not comment on it.” Obviously the joke was people who didn’t read it went straight to writing a comment about “Who had time to read” or “I read everyday”. It was savage and hilarious, and kind of sad.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-15 13:25:40

“No,they didn’t read any of it.”

Sort of how these pukes treat loan documents. Put into the document such laugh-in-your-face terms as “adjustable interest rate” and - behold! - the pukes will sign the bottom line EVERY TIME!

And they will then thank you for allowing them the opportunity to do so.

Amazing! (and oh so profitable. 😁)

 
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2018-08-15 10:56:10

Rents have been falling in Portland for a year at least.

I just heard from a buddy (a bubble believer) who is looking to rent a different SFH in Portland that he isn’t seeing any evidence of lower rents in that market. Rent declines may be limited to the over-produced segments at this point.

Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:43:53

Your friend may not be a very good shopper. Just sayin.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 12:34:11

The question still remains;

Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? Buy later after prices crater for 75% less.

Potomac Falls, VA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Housing Demand Craters To 20 Year Low

https://www.movoto.com/potomac-falls-va/market-trends/

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-15 09:36:40

Portland, OR 97209 Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Rental Rates Freefall

https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97209/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Sacguy
2018-08-15 10:56:22

Well, I am still waiting for real estate prices to drop, inventory to increase and rents to drop. Prices are SKY HIGH in California metro areas. So when will this bubble pop if rich Asian buyers and bay area people keep flocking to Sacramento?

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-15 11:16:23

So when will this bubble pop if rich Asian buyers and bay area people keep flocking to Sacramento?

I’m watching from Folsom. I see that the nicest houses in a given price range are still going pending. BUT…I notice there are very few of them lately. I wasn’t watching this area last year…is it normal for things to get so slow by July/August? It feels like November to me.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-15 11:50:14

You mean those water swillin’, chili/mustard eating, cracked cell phone/can’t go on vacation anymore Chinese?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 12:48:27

They can’t even change out of their pajamas.

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Comment by oxide
2018-08-15 13:19:34

That guy was one of the little people. Even if 1/1000 of Chinese are big kahoona chilis in China with money to launder and export, that’s still a million comps to smash in America and Australia.

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Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:47:48

Oxide,

America and Australia and the rest of the world are very big places. For that matter, so is China. The few rich people in China cannot possibly prop up real estate prices all over the world, and that includes Sacramento.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 16:02:50

“The few rich people in China cannot possibly prop up real estate prices all over the world, and that includes Sacramento.”

Say: “QE hugh” fa$t 5x … Eye hear: Federali$t Re$erve … What do you hear?

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-15 15:00:27

“…is it normal for things to get so slow by July/August?”

The kids school starts in September.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-15 15:49:36

The kids school starts in September.

I know, I know. But I mean it’s SERIOUSLY slow in Folsom now, like somebody shut off a switch around the end of June. I understand it trailing off but this feels different to me. When I started watching later last fall there were still interesting things coming onto the market fairly regularly even though it was slow. So my expectation was that it would never get below that level.

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Comment by Sean
2018-08-15 16:55:20

The kids school starts in September.

Even earlier in some places, but for most of the Nation school season is closer than the minimum escrow to close on a house. That’s why I’ve always thought the summer selling season ends in late July/early August - Gives the parents enough time to close on a house and set up the kids in their new school.

Summer selling season is over. It’s August but in RE it’s officially the fall time.

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Comment by Montana
2018-08-15 20:27:15

Starts middle of august here. Seems stupid to me because it’s still hot.

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Comment by Dave
2018-08-15 11:49:09

Maybe CA should take a hint at what’s happening around the world. CNN reported today that New Zealand is cutting off foreign investment in real estate. And in Barcelona, Spain, the local residents are taking to the streets to protest Air B n B and other modes that lead to gentrification.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-15 13:16:06

Are you kidding? The local pols and bureaucrats are desperate to keep prices high in order to fleece the citizens via property taxes. They’ll happily welcome foreign buyers by the score.

 
Comment by rms
2018-08-15 15:28:44

“CNN reported today that New Zealand is cutting off foreign investment in real estate.”

Here’s a repost from: 2018-05-16 08:36:20

This is worth the 45-min if you’re just waking-up. Enjoy!

Who Owns New Zealand Now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU

 
 
 
Comment by Sam (SW)
2018-08-15 21:15:50

Sac guy.

I’m not so sure Chinese and Bay Area folks are driving up the Sacramento market. If you’ve read this blog of bens for a while you’ve probably noticed that the Australians thought the Chinese were driving up their market too but it turns out the real driver was local speculators.

A) Bay Area cash is not gutting Sacramento. Only 15% of all sales were cash in the region last year. Cash used to be about 30% during the “Blackstone” days.

B) Nearly 20% of sales in the region last year were FHA, which tells us first-time buyers are winning in this market – not just loaded Bay Area residents.

http://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/tag/bay-area-migration/

 
 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 11:31:57

“East Palo Alto has always been a working community. Most residents hold down two jobs to survive. Simply put, the socio-economic condition has not caught up with the rising home and rental prices.”

Ben and Janet deserve to burn in hell for the terrible stress and hardships they placed on the working poor by making decent housing unaffordable.

Comment by rms
2018-08-15 15:20:04

“East Palo Alto has always been a working community.”

EPA was former repo turf in the eighties. The only people working around there back then were in government jobs while working on their disability gig. Lots of drugs and violent crime. A cop was killed there during a three strikes arrest while I doing my thing. Last I heard feisty, hard working Asians were slowly displacing the African Americans who made up the bulk of the population. Also, the area gets a nice, fresh south bay breeze through there. It could be really nice around there if the government would get out of the way.

 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:50:06

East Palo Alto has actually always been a welfare and prostitution community. But ya know, who’s counting?

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 11:40:34

London home prices suffer biggest drop in nine years. Pity the FBs who vastly overpaid in this most bubblecious of markets.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/15/london-house-prices-suffer-largest-drop-nine-years/

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-08-15 11:48:49

BBC is saying that New Zealand is enacting an out right ban on foreigners buying property. There are limited exceptions such as buyers from Australia but it goes far beyond Canada’s actions.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 11:58:28

In response, the Tennessee Valley Federal Credit Union (TVFCU) said it is offering a no downpayment mortgage for those with strong credit ratings and good income ‘and we’re really killing it with that product,’ TVFCU President Todd Fortner said. ‘This is our most popular mortgage product right now,’ he said.”

Sane people, pull your money from this doomed credit union and its clueless President that is fated to be cautionary tale as Housing Bubble 2.0 implodes.

 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-08-15 12:07:33

Did you buy the dead cat bounce in Bitcoin today?

Tech & Science
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Many Crypto Coins Could Soon Become ‘Worthless’
By Jason Murdock On 8/15/18 at 8:59 AM

In November last year, as the price of a bitcoin reached $20,000, cryptocurrency advocate John McAfee hit the headlines by claiming on Twitter that he would eat his own p#n#s should his prediction about the coin—that it would reach $1 million by 2020—not come true.

The outspoken nature of the claim was par for the course at the time. During the last few months of the year, crypto prices were skyrocketing. Despite warnings it was a bubble, investors with no prior knowledge of financial technology were rushing to get in on the action, pouring money into little-known startup ventures that promised them easy riches and quick rewards.

If it seemed too good to be true—that’s maybe because it was. Experts this week warned the market—often defined by its volatility—remains in a state of flux. But what comes next?

“How low [the price] can go is anyone’s guess,” Niels Pedersen, senior fintech lecturer at the Manchester Metropolitan University, told Newsweek. “If cryptocurrencies become mainstream, then prices could go a lot higher. If not, many become worthless. Even if you believe in cryptocurrency, picking the long-term winner is like looking for a needle in a haystack.”

https://www.newsweek.com/how-low-will-bitcoin-go-many-cryptocurrencies-could-become-worthless-expert-1073846

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 12:30:24

Dead cats don’t actually bounce.

Don’t ask me how I know this.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-15 13:29:29

How do you know this?

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-08-15 13:53:30

Don’t ask.

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Comment by CryptoNick
2018-08-15 20:42:24

The poor, poor HODLers…

Markets
Cryptocurrency Market Plumbs New Depths in 2018
At $191 billion, the total market value of cryptocurrencies world-wide is at its lowest since November
By Steven Russolillo, Paul Vigna and Akane Otani
Updated Aug. 14, 2018 7:50 p.m. ET

A broad investor retreat has pushed the market for digital currencies down 70% from its January high, reflecting user frustration over their modest inroads into commerce and a general shakeout in speculative investments.

The value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation this week fell below $200 billion for the first time in 2018, its lowest since November. The selling has been widespread and, some holders say, indiscriminate. Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value, 98 were down over 24 hours, according to research…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cryptocurrency-market-plumbs-new-depths-in-2018-1534241274

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 12:13:22

Remind me again why this Deep State bagman required a security clearance.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-revokes-security-clearance-of-former-cia-chief-john-brennan-2018-08-15

 
Comment by Boo Randy
 
Comment by california woman
2018-08-15 12:24:27

All I get from these movoto links is that the median home size is decreasing, so of course the prices would be dropping. In other words, people are buying smaller homes so there is not necessarily a price drop. Am I missing something?

Comment by oxide
2018-08-15 13:22:56

No, you’re not missing anything. This particular poster has been doing this for years. Basically you just need to ignore the posts.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-15 13:28:49

Housing

Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY Barbecuing NoVA/DC Homeowners

https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/

 
 
Comment by Big V
2018-08-15 15:59:45

California woman:

Yes, you are missing the chart on the page if you scroll down a bit where you can choose to see price/sq ft.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-15 18:42:59

Am I missing something?

Yes. People are spending less on houses. Big houses are white elephants.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-08-15 12:39:29

Any theories on why oil is rapidly tumbling away from $80?

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 13:04:24

$ame i$$ue as with American Cow$ liquid product$ production$.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-15 12:42:37

Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Expand

https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-08-15 12:50:47

Any thoughts on why Mr Market is so unhappy today? Certainly Wall Street doesn’t care that much about the Turkish lira!?

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 13:02:29

It help$ the kiddie$ bottom$, iffin’ ya pre.moi$turize their $lip & $lide.

Long lever$ $ummer vacation$ nearly @ a clo$e …

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-08-15 13:40:40

There’s never been a better time to sell.

‘If there were ever a moment to harvest gains…it is August 2018,’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd
Published: Aug 15, 2018 2:58 p.m. ET
Scott Minerd advises us not to ‘be fooled by recent complacency’
By Mark DeCambre

Scott Minerd isn’t bullish on U.S. stocks. And he can’t emphasize that point enough.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -0.54%), the S&P 500 index (SPX, -0.76%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, -1.23%) are all trading lower early Wednesday, with the equity benchmarks wallowing in a resumption of their hand-wringing over the health of Turkey’s economy as the Turkish lira (USDTRY, -7.2910%) relinquishes some hard-fought gains against the U.S. dollar (DXY, +0.02%).

Minerd, chief investment officer for Guggenheim Partners, meanwhile, wondered aloud Tuesday, via Twitter, why investors aren’t dumping stocks more heartily in an August that he expects to offer limited upside—at best:

‘If there were ever a moment to harvest gains and reduce risk, it is August 2018. And if it turns out not to be the moment, I don’t think you are giving up much upside.’

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-08-15 15:00:43

Good thing investors are piling into US stocks. Think of how ugly the action would be otherwise!

The Financial Times
Emerging market investing
Emerging markets index falls into bear market
EM equity benchmark has dropped nearly 20% from January high
updated 38 minutes ago
Investors pile into US stocks, BofAML survey shows
Emerging markets need Turkey to deliver a circuit breaker
Emerging markets hit as Turkey keeps investors on edge

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-15 16:09:00

Geez, Profe$$or “Teddy” Bear, $carring the little one$ … again!

t$k, t$k … Mom! ….

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-15 21:41:25

There’s no reason to be afraid… just because we are in an unprecedented global credit bubble, the likes of which no human alive or who ever lived has seen before over the entire course of financial history.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-16 00:06:13

For how many years already have the stopped-clock handwringers worried about China growth concerns? You’d think they would have run out of lotion by now.

The Financial Times
Global Market Overview
Growth concerns keep emerging markets muted
Fears over China’s economy overshadow continued recovery for Turkish lira

2 hours ago

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-16 00:14:52

Obviously the Plunge Protection Team will ride in to the rescue at any moment now.

Credit Markets
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Weigh Emerging-Market Risk
Investors seek haven despite Turkish lira’s rebound and strong U.S. retail-sales data
By Akane Otani
Updated Aug. 15, 2018 3:37 p.m. ET

U.S. Treasury yields fell Wednesday as fears of an emerging-market rout rippling into developed markets kept global investors cautious.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 2.852%, compared with 2.893% Tuesday.

Yields, which fall as bond prices rise, slipped overnight and held on to their declines as major stock…

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-15 14:03:40

Imagine being a London FB who climbed up on that property ladder in the last year or two, and reading headlines like this.

https://www.scmp.com/property/international/article/2159419/uk-house-prices-are-longest-losing-streak-financial-crisis

 
Comment by b
2018-08-15 15:05:33

did you guys catch this? So it is the big guys performing the fraud - not just the little real-estate agents scamming on qualifying income on the perspective buyer

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pursues-one-of-the-biggest-mortgage-fraud-probes-since-the-financial-crisis-1534357872?mod=e2fb&page=1&pos=1

“Still in its early stages, the investigation has so far yielded a fraud-conspiracy indictment against four real-estate executives in upstate New York. Loans that some or all of them were involved with totaled about $170 million, the indictment alleges.
Investigators have sought mortgage data on dozens of other apartment buildings, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and interviews with people familiar with the probe. Investigators have looked at student housing and self-storage facilities in addition to apartment complexes.
About $1.5 billion of securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are backed by mortgages from just one developer who has been under scrutiny, according to a Journal analysis of loan data from Thomson Reuters . “

Comment by CryptoNick
2018-08-15 21:36:56

Outlier

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-15 15:23:51

Denver, CO (hilltop) Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Pummel Denver Area

https://www.zillow.com/hilltop-denver-co/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
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