August 16, 2018

Fears That The Market May Be Peaking In California

A report from My News LA in California. “California’s housing market backpedaled in July on an annual basis for the third consecutive month as higher interest rates and rising home prices eroded housing affordability and dampened demand, the California Association of Realtors said Thursday. ‘In the midst of the peak home-buying season, high home prices and rising interest rates combined to crimp housing affordability, which in turn is subduing home sales,’ said C.A.R. President Steve White. ‘Some of the reluctance by buyers appears to be driven by fears that the market may be peaking. Additionally, the lack of a federal tax incentive for homeownership could be at play given that much of the weakness is in the lower-priced, first-time buyer segment of the market.’”

“The statewide median home price decreased to $591,460 in July. The July statewide median price was down 1.9 percent from $602,760 in June and up 7.6 percent from a revised $549,470 in July 2017. ‘While home sales continued to decline in recent months, the softening of the market is more indicative of a market shift rather than a major market correction,’ said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.”

“On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales in the Bay Area fell 7.1 percent monthly and increased 2.0 percent annually. Sales in the Inland Empire declined 6.1 percent from June and were up a nominal 0.1 percent from a year ago. Sales in the Los Angeles metro region dropped 11.3 percent from June and were essentially flat from a year ago.”




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51 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-16 12:16:37

https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/countysalesactivity

Santa Barbara MOM-27.0% YOY-10.0%

These guys lead the way in 2006.

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-16 13:23:26

Paging Sactoguy.. .

*****

Comment by Sactoguy
2018-08-16 11:05:08
I am praying and waiting for housing prices to crash in California metro areas. My dream would be for prices to crash 20-30% in Sacramento, San Jose, Los Angeles, Irvine, and San Diego. Alas, it is wishful thinking. Rents are skyrocketing, inventory is at an all time low, buyers are flooding open houses. I really do not see a slowdown in California at all.

Comment by Ghost of Satoshi
2018-08-17 08:47:52

No doubt the trend is down in a lot of counties, but even if we fall 30%, where I live it would still not be affordable, and still detached from reality and median household income.

Is this the big reset? Or another headfake similar to 2012? Hoping for the former

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-17 10:23:06

Is this the big reset?

The BIG reset would have happened in 2008-2010 if the Fed hadn’t gone all in on reflating. So all we can do now is watch and see how it gets handled this time.

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Comment by Magoo
2018-08-16 13:54:40

Thanks for providing solid data and not hyperbole!

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-16 14:03:59

…. with Riverside County, CA running a close second.

Riverside, CA Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As California Mortgage Fraud Runs Rampant

https://www.zillow.com/riverside-ca-92507/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-16 12:25:52

Pullman, WA Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Seattle Area Economy Staggers

https://www.movoto.com/pullman-wa/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-16 12:32:59

‘In the midst of the peak home-buying season (yadda) is subduing home sales’

OK, so that peak isn’t peaking.

‘Some of the reluctance by buyers appears to be driven by fears that the market may be peaking’

Walk me through this Steve. If I imagine a peak on a graph, what happens on the other side? It goes down! So if a person bought a shack, say 3 months ago or 6, they might… Are you sayin’ a borrower could lose money on a California shack Steve?

And these buyers you mention. I suppose they aren’t buyers yet, but potential buyers. They don’t really have anything to fear. It’s the people who just bought a shack that might have a brown spot in their pants after hearing what you said. Well, good thing the UHS always warn people they could lose a sh$tload of money, right?

‘While home sales continued to decline in recent months, the softening of the market is more indicative of a market shift rather than a major market correction,’ said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young’

Click!

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-16 13:25:53

A “shift” with a 40:1 leveraged loan at 8x income is a “correction” for most FBs…

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 14:18:00

‘While home sales continued to decline in recent months, the softening of the market is more indicative of a market shift rather than a major market correction,’ said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young’

‘While the Titanic has incurred superficial damage to her bow by sailing into a small iceberg, we remind our passengers that her builders made her unsinkable, she remains structurally sound, and the slight listing we are experiencing is to give you a better view of the ice field off to our left. Please remain calm and stay in your cabins until we can get underway again. The band will play on.”

– What Leslie Appleton-Young would’ve cooed to the passengers on the Titanic

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-16 15:22:22

Realtors are liars.

Dear HBB trolls, that sinking feeling, that desperate feeling, stop lying to yourself. You’re hundreds of thousands of dollars underwater and there’s no way out anytime soon.

Why can’t you just admit to yourself that you were lied to?

That you were sold a lie?

That you bought a lie?

Comment by Marian Rubino
2018-08-16 16:40:02

They bought a lie. Median income cannot sustain the debt.

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Comment by Sean
2018-08-16 18:13:46

Bought a lie? No, they financed it over 30 years at 60 percent their takehome pay.

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Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-16 12:36:47

San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Sellers Turn Desperate

https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92037/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-08-16 13:04:22

This news is a sure harbinger of a near-term rally in Bitcoin.

Bets against bitcoin have doubled since the beginning of August, exchange says
Published: Aug 16, 2018 12:01 p.m. ET
In the midst of a bear market, volumes betting against bitcoin have doubled this month
By Aaron Hankin
Reporter
IStockphoto

Betting on bitcoin isn’t for everyone. However, according to data from a leading cryptocurrency exchange, interest in betting against the worlds biggest digital currency is growing.

Bitfinex, the fourth largest cryptocurrency exchange with 24-hour volume of $614.8 million, has seen the number of bets against bitcoin (BTCUSD, +0.61%) double since the beginning of August as bears sought to pounce on the declining value of virtual currencies.

The outstanding short interest on the Bitfinex exchange has risen from below 18,000 BTC on Aug. 1, to more than 36,000 BTC as at Aug. 15.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bets-against-bitcoin-have-doubled-since-the-beginning-of-august-exchange-says-2018-08-16

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-16 13:28:03

Wonder whatever happen to Casey Siren (?) anyways?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-16 13:48:55

“In 2016, Serin legally changed his name to Casey Constantine. In Facebook comments, he stated that the name change is a sort of rebranding for the next chapter of his career/business in real estate, and that it will allow him much more control over his search results online, somewhat of a clean slate.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

Comment by oxide
2018-08-16 17:33:37

“it will allow him much more control over his search results online, somewhat of a clean slate.”

Since Wikipedia connects his old name with his new name, his slate will be forever filthy.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-16 16:52:48

I’ve posted a couple of updates about him in the last few months. He was working as a Realtor in the eastern Sacramento area (with a new can’t lose strategy better than everyone else’s) and then about a year ago as that got tougher he went all in on crypto (with a new can’t lose strategy better than everyone else’s). Then about a month ago he disabled/deleted his FB account. I don’t think it’s too tough to read between the lines.

Comment by rms
2018-08-16 17:51:09

“The hustlers never work, and the workers never hustle.” —Cocktail

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Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 14:26:18

So selling the graphics boards needed for “mining” cryptocurrencies with an intrinsic value of zero turns out not to be such a viable business model after all. Who knew?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-stock-falls-as-crypto-mining-decline-overshadows-earnings-beat-2018-08-16

 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-08-16 16:05:14

It’s only money — not worth nearly as much as a human life.

Cryptocurrencies plunge by as much as 10% in 24 hours wiping billions off the market and sparking investor suicide fears
- Price of bitcoin on Tuesday dipped below $6,000 from £20,000 in December
- Ethereum fell by 10 per cent in just 24 hours to $250, its lowest price this year
- Suicide prevention messages are being shared among investors on forums
By Charlie Moore For Mailonline
Published: 05:52 EDT, 16 August 2018 |
Updated: 08:26 EDT, 16 August 2018

Suicide prevention messages are being shared among investors as crytocurrencies plunge in value.

The price of bitcoin on Tuesday dipped below $6,000- down massively from its December 2017 high of around $20,000.

Ethereum fell by 10 per cent in just 24 hours to $250, its lowest price this year.

Suicide prevention messages are being shared among investors as the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum plunges (stock image)

Fearing for investors’ mental health, people posted suicide helpline numbers on the popular r/cryptocurrency forum on Reddit.
ADVERTISING

Also shared were links for the US Suicide Hotline and the National Alliance on Mental Illness.

One post reads: ‘If you feel you might be suicidal, and live in the United States, I urge you to call the Suicide Hotline at 800-273-8255 or navigate to for a live chat and additional resources.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6066347/Mass-suicide-fears-devastated-investors-cryptocurrencies-plunge.html

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-16 16:30:49

Darwin.

 
 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 13:45:25

As incredible as it seems, in 2018 there are still muppets who base their investment decisions on “research” done by so-called analysts whose paychecks are signed by financial firms with an agenda of separating the fools from their money. Even after the financial wipeouts of the muppets during the implosions of Tech Bubble 1.0 and the 2008 financial crash, when retail investor muppets foolishly put their trust in research or “recommendations” from touts for the Wall Street grifters who were happy to sell them toxic-waste garbage or take the other side of the trade, a la Goldman Sachs.

Once again, with feeling: never, ever trust the “research” or “advice” of anybody with a vested financial interest in selling you something. Suzanne doesn’t work for you - she works for Century 21.

https://www.businessinsider.com/moviepass-investors-tell-horror-stories-of-shares-dropping-99-percent-down-100000-2018-8

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 14:37:50

For the benefit of HBB noobs: the infamous 2006 Century 21 “The Debate” commercial, aka “Suzanne researched this.” It seems like a parody, but isn’t - and you can guess what happened to the FB couple featured once the 2007 housing bust rolled around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20n-cD8ERgs

Comment by Magoo
2018-08-16 15:47:50

She said pretty much everything but “Come at me bro”. Suzanne is now selling essential oils.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-16 15:50:46

If somebody ever writes a book about the economic history of the United States in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, this commercial is as historically resonant as the pulling a daisy / nukes going off commercial that defeated Goldwater in 1964.

This commercial well represents a society / economy in decay.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-16 16:12:24

This commercial was directed to every man who is totally hen pecked and wimped out, which is saying the commercial was directed to the average American male.

Millions of dollars went into the production and distribution of this commercial by an industry that has a lot at stake at which I offer up as evidence that this conclusion of mine is correct.

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Comment by near_seattle
2018-08-16 19:36:08

You obviously didn’t see the size of that garage.

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Comment by rms
2018-08-16 18:07:23

But as Ken saw the share-price tank, the analysts kept their advice to “buy.” And he did.

Fear and greed.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 13:51:50

‘Some of the reluctance by buyers appears to be driven by fears that the market may be peaking.

Ah, Steve-o, love how you spun that. Guess it would’ve spooked the herd a bit too much to say we’re seeing a sea change among buyers: from greed and FOMO, to a sudden awareness they could be financially wiped out if the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 plays out like its predecessor did.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 14:08:51

Despite the MSM’s journalistic omertà concerning the onrushing collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0, the Real Journalists are letting slip more headlines fretting over a “slowing” housing market starting to drag down the economy. No need to panic, of course. (Insert cooing REIC spin here.)

Which means, the gargantuan Ponzi markets and asset bubbles blown by ten years of Fed QE are about to come crashing down under the weight of their own fraud and artifice.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-tumble-as-housing-starts-to-drag-down-the-economy-2018-08-16?mod=MW_section_top_stories

 
Comment by hunkydory
2018-08-16 14:14:14

Just flew out of portlandia yesterday. Must have been a dozen cranes. Skyline barely recognizable from my last visit 17 years ago.

With all the tattoos, facial piercings and oddly colored hair Oregon strikes me as the worlds biggest mosh pit.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-16 16:45:45

It’s official motto:

“keep Portland wierd”

(Was just there visiting friends who lived @ the same address for 35 years, their retirement has been boo$ted bye unfor$een renting of their ba$ement apartment to a couple of youngin’s workin’ as culinary chef$. Their backyard tomatoes plants where amazingly prosperous, as where their wacky.tabaccy medicinal herb$, sometime$ change come$ to you unplanningly)

Quite immpre$$ed by the large numbers of bicycli$t, wow!… & the tennis courts @ the Japanese gardens.

Like everywhere$, $tunningly overcompen$ated habitat $helter boxe$

Comment by near_seattle
2018-08-16 20:56:27

“culinary chef$. Their backyard tomatoes”

“We only use the freshest, locally sourced ingredients” is probably what their menu says too.

“the worlds biggest mosh pit.”

Nah, in density maybe but that title is still LA in my travels.

 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-08-16 14:22:09

as down 1.9 percent from $602,760 in June and up 7.6 percent from a revised $549,470 in July 2017. ‘While home

This guy must be using movoto HA! Data

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-16 14:24:25

Witchita, KS Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Housing Fraud Epidemic Hits Heartland

https://www.zillow.com/wichita-ks-67216/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 15:11:49

As the Fed’s Everything Bubble starts to burst, the individual manias are fading to black one after the other. RIP, Bitcoin mining boom. Massive computing power and electricity usage to produce scam currency “coins” with an intrinsic value of zero turns out to be a non-viable business model for the long haul. Never could’ve imagined such an untimely demise of such a promising bubble.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-crypto-mining-boom-is-over-for-now-2018-08-16

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2018-08-16 15:22:55

Spin City. Talking out of both sides of mouth. And…if prices fall, it’s the media’s fault!
Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update (August 2018)

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 15:26:15
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-16 15:27:49

Comment by Tom Mckesson
2018-08-13

“A lot of low life’s on this website/board. Most here live with their parents or have been renting the past 10 years. Now they are hoping for an economic downturn to have their chance to buy. Good luck with your loan when you lose your job and your purchasing power vanishes. Home ownership is not a get rich quick scheme. People buy for the long term to raise families. An apartment or renting is no way to live. Most like to know what their cost of living will be so they can make decisions. You all missed out. I would take advantage of the recent correction if you have been waiting on the sidelines. By May next year you will see record high’s again. Bull market is not over yet. Will go to at least 2020 if not 2022. The technology we have at are disposable is unreal. Wake up you clowns.”

Anything good for sale at your garage sale? Or should I look for it later at a pawn shop or flea market?

That underwater mortgage will drown you, it will destroy you.

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 15:41:37

Bull market is not over yet. Will go to at least 2020 if not 2022.

The delusion is strong in that one. Too bad he’ll either get banned or will slink off without a trace once he realizes the Kool-Aid his cult idols gave him was laced with cyanide.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-16 16:22:26

Let’s analyze it, throw some sh*t in this troll’s face:

“you lose your job and your purchasing power vanishes”

Your “borrowing” value vanishes. Because you were never “purchasing” anything to begin with. Fake. Borrowed. Illusion. Of. Wealth.

You didn’t purchase anything, and you don’t own anything.

Mr. Banker owns you, you’re just a sad, bitter slave.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-16 16:36:10

“Mr. Banker owns you, you’re just a sad, bitter slave.”

😁

OMG, these stupid pukes made it so incredibly easy.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-16 16:53:15

Conventional slavery (slavery by coercion) was a stupid idea in that the slave was a pain in the ass go own. One had to feed him and house him and constantly guard him because the incentive for him was to run away.

On the other hand debt slavery (slavery by persuasion) is a great idea in that the slave, in effect, owns himself. The feeding and the housing still needs to be done but it is the slave himself who performs these tasks. And as for running away, why should he want to run away? Since it is he, the slave, that owns the slave what incentive is there for him to escape?

Ah, yes, debt slavery is the way to go. All that needs to be done to create such a slave is to lay out on a sheet of paper a dotted line or two and - presto! - along will come a stupid dumb-ass puke to willingly - WILLINGLY - sign himself up.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 16:47:34

As the Good Ship Housing Bubble starts to take on water, I expect we’ll see more bitter True Believers showing up in here, a note of sick desperation in their tirades about how only loser renters are refusing to climb on that housing ladder for the next leg up. They want so badly to believe it, I almost pity them.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-16 17:13:52

That’s how it worked last time.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-16 18:44:57

I almost pity them.

I don’t. We’ve had the internet for 20+ years, social media for 10+ years. The willfully ignorant deserve the poverty and starvation they’ve brought on themselves.

You listened to a lying Realtor, and now you’re broke. Your wife is leaving you, you’ll be lucky to see your kids 4 days a month. Kiss your boat and other toys goodbye :(

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-16 16:51:38

Fake wealth created by fake Fedbux so a corrupt and venal .1% in the financial sector can for the third time since 2001 plunder the wealth and assets of the middle and working classes that “invested” in the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate’s rigged markets and manias.

So sad, so predictable; yet no one will have seen it coming.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-16 16:23:23

The Housing Hen will just resume the old username and continue foot stamping.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-08-16 16:32:16

Bitcoin can only go to zero.

There is a significant portion of real estate that has an intrinsic value of less than zero once existing and exploding future property taxes are computed.

Add in 40:1 leverage and 8x income…

And then describe a recourse loan to a FB.

 
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