I Just Want To Get Out, I’ve Been Holding Too Long
A report from the Vancouver Sun in Canada. “A number of Vancouver realtors believe a significant decline is happening in Metro Vancouver house prices, through official statistics are so far providing more muted signals. Realtor Ian Watt uses the independent figures from SnapStarts Publishing Company, which reports median prices. For July, it shows that prices for detached homes on Vancouver’s west side have fallen 26 per cent in a year, dropping by just under $1 million, from $3.8 million to $2.8 million. In West Vancouver, detached home prices have fallen over 30 per cent or $1.1 million, from $3.6 million in December 2017 to $2.5 million in July.”
“By comparison, the real estate board’s index shows a year-over-year decrease in July of 8.4 per cent for the west side and 8.3 per cent for West Vancouver.”
“Realtor Stuart Bonner watches detached homes on Vancouver’s west side and says the drop in sales and prices that he is seeing feel like a ‘canary in the coal mine’ — a warning of what is to come in other parts of the Metro market because the west side is where the ‘chain reaction’ starts. The downward trend would come off some intense price gains in the last few years. Watt says, in January 2015, the median sale price for downtown condos was for $493,000, according to SnapStarts. In January 2018, it was $950,000 for an increase of 93 per cent.”
“‘My thoughts are if they went up that fast, they can certainly go down that fast. That was a one-time Chinese money infusion and a spectacular frenzy, which are both over. Vancouver will never be affordable, but it will drop 25 per cent or more,’ says Watt.”
“Prices tend to be cut as properties sit unsold on the market. So another way to look at things is to count how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales, a measure called months of supply. Bonner says as this statistic increased in July, the average detached home price dropped 11.6 per cent to $3.323 million from $3.757 million last year. The median detached home price dropped more slightly from $3.009 million to $2.984 million. There has been a drop of 25 per cent in average home price and 22 per cent drop in median home price since the highs of 2017, according to Bonner.”
“‘Detached, attached and apartments on the west side are now all experiencing price reductions and while this is creating good buying opportunities, buyers are holding off in anticipation of further declines,’ Bonner wrote to clients in a note. ‘This will exacerbate the decline and soften prices further.’”
“Realtor Steve Saretsky says when prices were rising, it was the ‘irrational buyer who would set a new level by bidding $200,000 over the asking price.’ Now, the prices are being set by owners who are willing to take a lower amount because they have to sell for personal reasons, such as a divorce or an illness that forces downsizing. ‘We are in a period of price discovery,’ says Saretsky, with some sellers adjusting their expectations and some finding it harder to do so.”
“One would-be seller of a one-bedroom condo in Yaletown, for example, who thought in the fall of 2017, his place might go for $750,000. He got an offer for $735,000, but didn’t take it then, says Saretsky. ‘He asked me what it would be worth now, based on recent sales and I said, ‘asking anything higher than $700,000 would be on the high side. Maybe $685,000. And he said, ‘oh no, he couldn’t sell it for that since he had that previous offer for $735,000. So it’s tough to adjust if people have been anchoring those prices.’”
The Australian Financial Review. “All eyes have been on Sydney where the softness has been most apparent as investors are forced from the market by curbs on lending. Sydney prices have dropped 5.4 per cent for the year. SQM Research’s Louis Christopher said auction volumes are beginning to pick from the winter lows and clearance rates so far haven’t deteriorated further, in Sydney and at a national level.”
“‘The pick-up for the spring selling season is now upon us. The market is going to be very much tested,’ he said. ‘We’ll know from this whether we’re going to experience a deep crash or whether it’s going to be an orderly downturn that will last a period of time but won’t be anything at panic levels.’”
“Anecdotally, sellers are showing more signs of capitulating and a willingness to meet where the market is now at, according to Mr Christopher. ‘I’ve been hearing this more and more from sellers: ‘I just want to get out. I’ve been holding too long, I want out.’”
‘For July, it shows that prices for detached homes on Vancouver’s west side have fallen 26 per cent in a year, dropping by just under $1 million, from $3.8 million to $2.8 million. In West Vancouver, detached home prices have fallen over 30 per cent or $1.1 million, from $3.6 million in December 2017 to $2.5 million in July’
See, and I told the trolls this the other day and they said “noooo!” You want to know what’s even more crater trolls?
Prices in these Chinese gambling mecca’s in Vancouver have been dropping like a turd in a well since spring 2016! They’re probably off 50% by now.
Read it and weep trolls! “I just want out, waaah!”
Seattle is right behind Vancouver
“turd in a well”. Now that’s comedy.
It’s happening Ben…any data or information you can dig up on Irvine would be appreciated (Chinese ground central). This seems to be the last holdout for some reason. The kook-aid is still aplenty here.
It’s been happening for a while, the media just doesn’t want to admit it
February 24, 2017
“The mansion on Fallen Leaf Road in the secluded Upper Rancho neighborhood of Arcadia has all the trappings a wealthy buyer from China could want. Yet two months after it was placed on the market, the house remains unsold. Not long ago, real estate like this would have been snapped up almost immediately. ‘It would have been gone in two weeks with multiple offers,’ said Dee Chou, the property’s listing agent.”
“Median home prices have dropped in Arcadia to $930,000 at the end of last year from about $1.1 million at the start of 2015. In San Marino, the median price for a home was $2.5 million as recently as the second quarter of last year before tapering to $2.2 million by the fourth quarter. Agents say the city is left with a surplus of luxury properties whose sellers could face pressure to reduce prices. One agent said her client had to drop his asking price for a property in Arcadia last summer to $8.3 million from $10 million because it drew no interest for three months. ‘All agents are crying that the money isn’t coming,’ said Sanne Lee, an agent for A + Realty & Mortgage in Rowland Heights.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10006
‘Agents say the city is left with a surplus of luxury properties whose sellers could face pressure to reduce prices. One agent said her client had to drop his asking price for a property in Arcadia last summer to $8.3 million from $10 million because it drew no interest for three months’
Got that Dan? Eat your crow!
Ben, I’m pretty sure this is the house on Fallen Leaf Road:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1100-Fallen-Leaf-Rd-Arcadia-CA-91006/20886304_zpid/?fullpage=true
DATE
6/6/2018 Price change $8,680,000 -2.3%
3/29/2018 Price change $8,880,000 -6.4%
2/22/2018 Listing removed $9,488,000 –
11/28/2017 Pending sale $9,488,000 –
6/14/2017 Price change $9,488,000 -4%
12/1/2016 Listed for sale $9,880,000 5.3% LA Time article
6/17/2016 Sold $9,380,000 -6.1%
5/5/2016 Pending sale $9,988,000 –
3/25/2016 Listing removed $9,988,000 –
3/23/2016 Pending sale $9,988,000 –
3/20/2016 Price change $9,988,000 -2%
12/28/2015 Listed for sale $10,188,000 200.7%
7/3/2014 Listing removed $3,388,000 -1.8%
2/28/2014 Sold $3,450,000 294.3%
9/1/2004 Sold (empty lot) $875,000 –
Fallen Price Road?
were they going to pay LA times a commission
a 5.3% bump form dead tree marketing?
They missed a golden opportunity to list it at 8,888,888 this year. They would have had Chinese buyers fighting tooth and nail to get it at that price.
“In West Vancouver, detached home prices have fallen over 30 per cent or $1.1 million, from $3.6 million in December 2017 to $2.5 million in July.”
This isn’t a correction, this is an absolute meltdown. 30% in 7 months!
‘The pick-up for the spring selling season is now upon us. The market is going to be very much tested,’ he said. ‘We’ll know from this whether we’re going to experience a deep crash or whether it’s going to be an orderly downturn that will last a period of time but won’t be anything at panic levels.’
Your confidence has deteriorated significantly Louis. While mine has never wavered.
Bonner says as this statistic increased in July, the average detached home price dropped 11.6 per cent to $3.323 million from $3.757 million last year. The median detached home price dropped more slightly from $3.009 million to $2.984 million. There has been a drop of 25 per cent in average home price and 22 per cent drop in median home price since the highs of 2017, according to Bonner.”
And to think the real fun hasn’t even started yet. Right about the time the panic-selling starts in earnest, skittish buyers who realized they dodged a bullet will be waiting until the carnage has played out and the bottom is in before they even think about making an offer.
But you stick to your guns, greedheads. Your listing is special and the right buyer will be along with a full-price offer any day now.
Your listing is special, like in the short bus sense.
Realtor Steve Saretsky says when prices were rising, it was the ‘irrational buyer who would set a new level by bidding $200,000 over the asking price.’ Now, the prices are being set by owners who are willing to take a lower amount because they have to sell for personal reasons, such as a divorce or an illness that forces downsizing. ‘We are in a period of price discovery,’ says Saretsky, with some sellers adjusting their expectations and some finding it harder to do so.”
When true price discovery asserts itself, it’s game over for the central bankers’ Ponzi markets and asset bubbles. Trillions in fictitious wealth are going to be wiped out.
‘it was the ‘irrational buyer who would set a new level by bidding $200,000 over the asking price. Now, the prices are being set by owners who are willing to take a lower amount’
Drum roll…
August 19, 2018
‘In San Jose, for example, Zillow reports prices were dropped on 9.5 percent of listings in June, up from 7.2 percent one year ago. ‘What’s happening is we’re seeing prices not going up $100,000 or $200,000 over the asking price’
Gosh, Ben. I sense this housing bubble bust may not be confined to Metro Vancouver.
I was looking at a number of counties on Realtor.com
If I am understanding the data correctly, every county I looked at had an average sales price higher than the listing price. Lowest Sales price to listing I saw was in Horry County, sc. Just slightly over 100%.
The data makes no sense to me. people can’t be paying over list everywhere.
Do you really expect realtors to be truthful?
Well if the owners are setting the prices, then they might as well set them upwards. I sense some stupidity going on here.
“‘Detached, attached and apartments on the west side are now all experiencing price reductions and while this is creating good buying opportunities, buyers are holding off in anticipation of further declines,’ Bonner wrote to clients in a note.
Suck it, greedheads. You caused housing to priced completely out of reach for the prudent and responsible with your debt-fueled speculation: now we’re going to enjoy seeing you get your heads handed to you and your shacks being auctioned off on the courthouse steps.
“And don’t you love the sound…of the last laugh going down.” — Mark Knophler, “The Last Laugh.”
dropping by just under $1 million, from $3.8 million to $2.8 million.
Mind boggling that a Median/average price of a house could DROP by $1.00 MM in a year. Just crazy!
From the first Article
(list it at) Maybe $685,000. And he said, ‘oh no, he couldn’t sell it for that since he had that previous offer for $735,000.
Not gonna give it away
This is something you learn quickly on ebay…best offer means the first offer is very close to what its really worth. And ebay only gives you a short period of time to accept decline or counter offer
People really low ball you today, so i counter offer to take the lower price but you still have to pay postage unless it very light.
This unpossible. Canada and Australia are socialist. House prices can never go down in a socialist economy. I have this on good authority from Canadians I’ve known who also assure me that ever-increasing house prices are good for everyone.
Yeah, we had a troll the other day who said, “the gobernment will never let shack prices fall!”
Uh, the gobernments in Canada and Australia are forcing the market to fall.
Just like the Chinese government is trying to tamp down housing prices. The US seems to be somewhat of an outlier in this respect.
The local assessors and governments need to be cut off from funding. They’ve been living like pigs in high slop for too long.
Sisters, OR Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As The Wheels Fall Of Portland Housing Market
https://www.movoto.com/sisters-or/market-trends/
‘My thoughts are if they went up that fast, they can certainly go down that fast. That was a one-time Chinese money infusion and a spectacular frenzy’
I said years ago this China thing would peter out. Ta-da! Louis? Bob Rennie?
Bueller?
A Long Rant About Bob Rennie : vancouver - Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/…/a_long_rant_about_bob_rennie/
May 16, 2016 - One year ago I was blood boiling angry with Vancouver “Condo King” Bob Rennie. I recall distinctly thinking “I want to … You’re just rambling about how people are misattributing the housing bubble as being the result of foreign investment and idolizing an asshole developer.
Sep 13, 2017
Brace for more housing shortages, warns Vancouver real estate guru
torqcampbell on Twitter: “bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest …
https://twitter.com/torquilcampbell/status/744880110449332224
Jun 20, 2016 - … bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest asshole in canada
ASKBiblitz on Twitter: “Crash! And take that asshole Bob Rennie with it …
https://twitter.com/leobiblitz/status/613724921789743104
And the “Winners” are … the Worst of Vancouver, 2015 | scamcouver
https://scamcouver.blog/2015/09/…/and-the-winners-are-the-worst-of-vancouver-201…
Sep 28, 2015 - BMW (possibly an M5, possibly belonging to Bob Rennie) … be an asshole.
2013: The Scam Reviewed | scamcouver
https://scamcouver.blog/2013/12/31/2013-the-scam-reviewed/
Dec 31, 2013 - bob rennie is an asshole
Oh dear. Chinese speculators who had propelled the Hong Kong housing market to insane highs, just got cold feet.
And just like that, greed and FOMO turns to fear. Look out below, FBs.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2160389/few-takers-latest-batch-flats-hong-kongs-cheapest-residential-project-year
Less than half the flats on offer at a residential project in Yuen Long were sold on Sunday where a few buyers forfeited huge deposits deals last week, with analysts pointing out that investors are having second thoughts amid rising mortgage rates, US-China trade war, struggling stock market and government measures to cool runaway prices.
Sun Hung Kai Properties, the largest developer in Hong Kong, sold only 15 of the 30 units on offer at Park Yoho Milano in the northern Yuen Long district, according to Midland Reality Agency. Last Wednesday five buyers cancelled their agreements foregoing nearly HK$2 million to terminate the sales.
Crow Dan, Eat it!
Maybe now those Chinese buyers can save away 60% of their disposable income instead of 50%. 65%, if they can forgo afternoon tea.
And don’t forget the CraterTaters.
Yesterday’s FOMO is today’s FONGO.
That unfolding Australian house price crash
Financial Times-2 hours ago
Will the housing bubble go the way of all others? The turn has been well documented. …
Hey Financial Times, it’s OK if you want to follow me around to see where this is going.
Does the 8 in Section 8 make it a lucky investment ? Another good question to ask my ex-boss .. He owns a bunch of them in Stockton CA.
transferred to another group run by an European Engineer who also speculates in RE. Indianian I think and Utah?
but at least doesn’t talk about it. So life is better.
However much I get irritated with these jokers they have all made millions in this crazy RE bubble… so far.
Truck driver pay plummeted in last 30 years: Drivers association president
Mar 27, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06yRKyfdcXU
Income is half what it was 30 years ago.
Long haul truckers get paid by the mile, thus if the truck is not moving they are not getting paid. Keep this in mind.
They possibly may get go earn 40 to 50 thousand dollars a year if they are willing to drive the truck 70 to 80 hours a week.
Driving the truck is just what it means. If the driver is waiting for the truck to be hitched up or unhitched, waiting for the trailer to be loaded or be unloaded then guess what?, the driver is not getting paid.
If the truck breaks down and needs repairs then it is not being driven hence the driver is not getting paid.
If the driver feels he needs to take some time off to be with his family that he has not been with for maybe a month of more then guess what?, he is not getting paid.
The annual turnover for long haul truckers is, oh, 100 percent or so. What a surprise.
Here’s a short video …
Watch “Truck Driver Salary Pay Packages Just Don’t Cut It” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/MPT38DblVv8
In some family/cultural circles becoming a doctor or lawyer or an engineer, etc is something a young person may aspire to become.
In other family/cultural circles young people aspire to become truck drivers.
Here’s 16 favorite truck driving songs I am submitting to back up my point …
Watch “16 Greatest Truck Driver Hits Full Album [1978]” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/gksUFITl9Rw
My dad drove OTR for a decade or so after the the oil economy jobs dried up in Wyoming in the 80s. He kind of enjoyed it but my mom (the one who had to do all the accounting and try to keep everyone fed on what was left) highly advised staying out of the business. She was always the smart one.
They missed one of the best trucker songs of all time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6LzWZYWpOU
If we paid workers wages that reflected their economic contributions, that would cut into the oligarchy’s ability to concentrate all wealth and power in their own greedy hands. We don’t want that, do we?
Our oligarch-captured Republicrat duopoly and corporate media certainly don’t.
Less for thee means more for me…hey, let’s look into importing labor from North Korea. I hear they work for starvation wages. Shareholder value!
My money market fund has outpaced my wage growth over the last 20 years.
Is this why I keep hearing there’s a truck driver shortage?
I’ve noticed that nowadays, many truck drivers are obviously from some other country. Maybe it’s like the software industry, bringing in cheap foreign labor?
Neighborhood protest over tiny home development in Kansas gets ugly
BY CARRIE RENGERS
August 19, 2018 09:39 AM
WICHITA, KANSAS
The emailed threat read like dialogue from 1930s pulp fiction.
“We’re going to tell you this once,” the message began that told Jonathan Endicott to give up his fight against the MicroMansions tiny homes development planned near his Cambria neighborhood, just south of Harry and 143rd East.
“If not we will use all of our resources, money and means to stop you. You’re dealing with powerful people that have no problems attacking your business, life and family if you choose not to stop.”
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/national/article216981455.html
I come firmly on the side of the MicroMansion people. These NIMBY-ists are really part of the housing cartel. Part of the reason housing is so expensive (aside from the easy money), is because codes require minimum sq foot on lots. It’s like Oxide says sometimes, you have a choice between a bus pass or a Mercedes Benz, but not a lot in between. Condos, townhouses, row houses, micro apartments, and even tiny homes allow people to get into a place at a lower price point.
and i keep telling peeps its amazing how much less stuff you really need to live with today vs 10-20 years ago, because of the digital revolution.
For most of the country there are no minimum lot size requirements. And with a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped, why would there be.
Considering the record high glut of housing inventory it’s a moot point anyways.
So Camrys and Accords are no longer manufactured? News to me. And you can buy a $35k Mercedes. Today’s MB is not the MB of 30 years ago when it meant quality and expensive.MB destoyed itself when it went downscale with the c (for cheap) class. But I digress…..
It was just an analogy. Of course there is a whole range of vehicles at various levels or quality, features, and price points. It used to be like that for housing, but not much anymore. That’s part of why housing is squeezed.
There are 200k homes, 500k homes and 1m plus home where I live. And everything in between. Something for everyone depending on what they want to spend. There is a great big world outside of LA and San Francisco, where normalcy still exists.
Oxide clarified the point I was trying to make. In my area, the idea of “affordable” doesn’t really exist. There should be housing units at about $75k - $125k (2x - 3x median income). Instead you have starter homes at $300k. So yeah, there are no Toyotas and Camrys. And part of this is by design because NIMBYs, tax regs, zoning, and the entire REIC structure is designed not to make naturally occurring affordable housing.
Dude, Mercedes not only makes the C class, they also make the A class and B class, and have been for a time - I drove a A-class Mercedes in Germany almost 20 years ago (but the only B class here is the B250e electric)
These NIMBY-ists are really part of the housing cartel.
In the end pretty much everybody who benefits (or at least isn’t hurt) from higher housing prices is part of the cartel. That’s why the fight is so lop-sided.
Unfortunately the NIMBYs have a point here. Tiny House shows paint the residents as fine upstanding couples or small families who make a decent money but live below their means. But if you offer a house at $75K, what you’re going to get is residents who can barely afford the $650/mo payment, i.e. “undesireables.” Or, the houses will just be bought up by LLs and turned into rental slums. Or be rented out as AirBnB party houses. So don’t expect a hippie colony of kumbaya joy.
It can probably be done if the HOA and covenants are strong enough, but enforcement won’t be easy. You can’t evict an owner as you can a renter.
$650? More like $375 with a $0 down loan. This “community” will make public housing look like Beverly Hills.
But if you offer a house at $75K, what you’re going to get is residents who can barely afford the $650/mo payment, i.e. “undesireables.”
There is some reason to be concerned. During my time in the trailer park in Boulder I did see one interesting thing though. If you can make a rule that nobody can rent one out…they all have to be owners…the mix isn’t as bad as you would think. Slum lords and their customers are much worse than low income people who can qualify for a loan or have some cash. I don’t mind living among the latter.
I feel for these people who will have Section 8 renters as their neighbors. One good rule of r/e is Never buy property next to open land for this exact reason. This neighborhood will be a slum within a couple of years.
Downtown Los Angeles, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY On Resetting Adjustable Rate Mortgages
https://www.zillow.com/downtown-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
“‘Detached, attached and apartments on the west side are now all experiencing price reductions and while this is creating good buying opportunities, buyers are holding off in anticipation of further declines,’ Bonner wrote to clients in a note. ‘This will exacerbate the decline and soften prices further.’”
Don’t miss that the onset of price declines have come against the backdrop of a strong economy and a very long expansion which is now long in the tooth. Speculative demand has flown, interest rates have bottomed out and are rising, and fundamental demand can only weaken from here.
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.
“One would-be seller of a one-bedroom condo in Yaletown, for example, who thought in the fall of 2017, his place might go for $750,000. He got an offer for $735,000, but didn’t take it then, says Saretsky. ‘He asked me what it would be worth now, based on recent sales and I said, ‘asking anything higher than $700,000 would be on the high side. Maybe $685,000. And he said, ‘oh no, he couldn’t sell it for that since he had that previous offer for $735,000. So it’s tough to adjust if people have been anchoring those prices.’”
Sell now, or get priced in forever.
You can stick a fork in the cryptobubble.
The Financial Times
Analysis Cryptocurrencies
What next for cryptocurrencies after bubble bursts?
Bitcoin, the original and most valuable crypto, has plummeted from $19,000 to $6,000-$8,000
Is $600 billion alot?
After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors
By Nathaniel Popper and Su-Hyun Lee
Aug. 20, 2018
Tony Yoo, at home in Playa Vista, Calif. Mr. Yoo, a financial analyst in Los Angeles, invested more than $100,000 of his savings last fall. At their lowest point, his holdings dropped almost 70 percent in value.
Credit Rozette Rago for The New York Times
SAN FRANCISCO — Pete Roberts of Nottingham, England, was one of the many risk-takers who threw their savings into cryptocurrencies when prices were going through the roof last winter.
Now, eight months later, the $23,000 he invested in several digital tokens is worth about $4,000, and he is clearheaded about what happened.
“I got too caught up in the fear of missing out and trying to make a quick buck,” he said this week. “The losses have pretty much left me financially ruined.”
Mr. Roberts, 28, has a lot of company. After the latest round of big price drops, many cryptocurrencies have given back all of the enormous gains they experienced last winter. The value of all outstanding digital tokens has fallen by about $600 billion, or 75 percent, since the peak in January, according to data from the website coinmarketcap.com
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/technology/cryptocurrency-investor-losses.html
McGrath senses market bottom as agency loses $63m
The Australian-23 minutes ago
High-profile real estate agent John McGrath says the housing market slowdown is close to the bottom but there will be no quick turnaround, as his listed real …
McGrath reports a $63m loss in weaker housing market
The Sydney Morning Herald-10 hours ago
”There is a lot of discussion about an oversupply of apartments in Sydney, but with population growth we are predicting that in two to three years we will be ..
Mkay!
Frisco, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Homeowners Begin Walking Away From Bloated Mortgages
https://www.movoto.com/frisco-tx/market-trends/
Breaking news! (not)
Watch “Freeloaders: The Wealthy” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/DsTKAqHwj0s