A Stealthier Storm Has Already Hit Florida
A report from the Miami Herald in Florida. “Hurricanes have given Florida a break thus far this summer. But a stealthier kind of storm has already hit the state. A new study by Attom Data Solutions shows Florida had one of the highest rates of foreclosure starts in the U.S. in July, compared to the same period last year. The report, which tracked foreclosure filings issued by county governments on single-family homes and condos, shows one in every 1,180 housing units in Florida was subjected to a ‘list pending’ — a filing by a bank warning of pending foreclosure activity due to late payment.”
“Dr. Ned Murray, associate director of the Florida International University Metropolitan Center, said that although exact figures aren’t yet available, his research confirms the foreclosure-start activity in South Florida has increased significantly. The neighborhoods primarily affected are Homestead, Opa Locka, City of Miami, Hollywood and Pompano Beach — all working-class areas.”
“‘It’s a disturbing trend, especially when you see the biggest impact is in less affluent communities,’ he said. ‘This is the older, less valued housing stock.’”
“Ironically, Murray said one possible cause of foreclosure starts in more modest neighborhoods could be growing real estate values. ‘Because values have increased steadily over the last five to six years, some homeowners took out second mortgages and equity loans,’ Murray said. ‘But wages have remained flat and housing costs such as insurance keep going up.’”
“Analysts warn this new wave of foreclosure starts could even impact higher-priced homes, such as the oversupply of expensive condos in the downtown Miami area. ‘The condo situation is starting to mirror the way it looked pre-recession in terms of price drops in Miami,’ said Michael Sichenzia, president of the Deerfield Beach-based consulting firm Global Advisors. ‘Prices have dropped considerably while supply keeps increasing, and there’s still a ton of product that has yet to come to market. I think that the next two years do not bode well for prices in general in Miami. The market is overheated again and you’re seeing the beginning of that cool-down now.’”
The Miami New Times. “By nearly every metric, Miami’s housing and rental markets are Kafkaesque nightmares. Few people can afford their homes here because they are expensive, while median incomes are embarrassingly low. It’s a dangerous predicament — one natural disaster could throw tons of cash-strapped homeowners spiraling into bankruptcy.”
“Well, according to a new report from Attom Data Solutions, the Magic City is now dealing with the fallout from one of those disasters: Foreclosures in Miami spiked 29 percent from July 2017 to July 2018, and Hurricane Irma is partly to blame.”
“The city saw 1,119 new foreclosures in the past month alone. Though some of that spike can be attributed to damage from Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Attom’s analysts warn the foreclosure spike could be a sign of greater trouble on the horizon. Statewide, Florida saw 35 percent more foreclosure filings this month than in July 2017 — the largest single-state spike in America.”
“‘The increase in foreclosure starts is not just a one-month anomaly in many local markets given that July represented the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in 33 metro areas, including Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Detroit, San Diego, and Austin,’ Attom Senior Vice President Daren Blomquist said. ‘Gradually loosening lending standards over the past few years have introduced a modicum of risk back into the housing market, and that additional risk is resulting in rising foreclosure starts in a diverse set of markets.’”
“The Miami Herald reported in January that Irma-related damage was forcing money-stretched homeowners into foreclosure — but thanks to the city’s absurd housing market, where locals have no money but outside investors continue to inflate real-estate prices, it appears homeowners are still struggling nearly a year after the storm.”
‘As evidence of its booming economy, Tampa Bay is the only major metro area in Florida where foreclosure filings haven’t started to climb. In July, by contrast, Orlando, Jacksonville and Miami all recorded a year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts for the third consecutive month, the property database ATTOM Data Solutions says.’
‘Nationwide, 15 percent of the 96 metro areas surveyed had three consecutive months of increased foreclosure filings with the biggest increases in Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia and San Francisco.’
From the comments:
“It’s going to happen. Sooner or later the wave is going to hit the beach. It always does. I see people, some of the same people at that doing the same thing today they did 12 years ago. And the same thing will happen again. Some people just don’t learn.”
“now the tampon foot ball team is facing foreclosures now thats funny too”
“Here we go again. The Republicans take charge, they let the banks do as they please, and soon the public pays. When are we going to learn their policies only benefit the rich.”
“you wont joey—you and the dimorats are the guilty parties….”
“It was your beloved rapist-in-chief Billy Bob Clinton and clown-in-chief George W Bush. We call these two individuals establishment-swamp-creatures-in-chief. Another establishment creature, Barney Franks (Are you getting the trend here?) decided in his infinite wisdom of over-lordship, that government bureaucratic giants Fannie and Freddie needed to start buying up subprime mortgages of low income borrowers thus allowing banks to start to lend money that had a very high risk of not being paid back. The quota implemented by Barney the Dinosaur was executed by Clinton in the 90’s requiring Fannie and Freddie to have a 30% makeup of these risky loans in their portfolio. In the 2000’s, that quote was raised to 55% in the Bush era. So effectively, Barney enacted regulation, that Clinton and Bush executed, forcing the government beasts of Fannie and Freddie to purchase loans that should of never been leant in the first place because of the risk. On top of that, the structure of their portfolios had to include 55% of those loans. By creating that environment, banks had no problem lending money that they were most likely going to lose. Why not? They weren’t going to lose that money anyways. The federal government was. Or to put it in better terms, Joe Nappi and John Lallemand were robbed of that money. After all, the federal government doesn’t “earn” that money do they? They take it from you two (taxes). Because a few people up in Washington DC decided that they knew better than Joe Nappi and John Lallemand and the 55% of tax paying citizens (make note the other 45% pay nothing and which of the 55% that do, the top 6% pay nearly 60% of the whole tax bill), on how to spend your money. Taking it from you, and then giving you dollars earned by you to someone else so they could buy a home that they were never going to be able to afford; hence the financial crisis of 2008 born. Created by: not private banks, not by citizens, but by a few people in one city that are drunk off of power and our money and think that it is OK to take the fruits of the individual citizens intellectual and physical labor, and redistribute the fruit how they see fit. So wake the hell up Joe, John and the rest of the country. It’s not a Republican thing or a democrat issue. You want situations like the 2008 financial crisis to stop, then you have to open your eyes to the cause. It’s called the DC Swamp! It’s called the Establishment! Once you figure that out and want to know how to change it, then enlighten yourself. Learning about Article V, the Convention of States (COS).”
“…government bureaucratic giants Fannie and Freddie needed to start buying up subprime mortgages of low income borrowers thus allowing banks to start to lend money that had a very high risk of not being paid back.”
Good thing that ended.
Oh wait!
10 years after crisis, Fannie, Freddie trigger new alarms about growing role
By KATY O’DONNELL
07/26/2018 02:17 PM EDT
Republican lawmakers are raising alarms that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-run companies at the center of the U.S. mortgage market, are quietly expanding their activities to fortify themselves against any efforts to rein them in.
A decade after the government rescued the mortgage financiers from a spectacular collapse, critics are stunned to see Fannie and Freddie back in a position to pick winners and losers in the private market, introduce new products, and rapidly grow their multifamily lending business.
…
They should have been eliminated last time, now it’s too late as they are neck deep in it again.
‘‘It’s a disturbing trend, especially when you see the biggest impact is in less affluent communities…This is the older, less valued housing stock.’
Couldn’t see this coming? There are radio and TV ads blaring cash out refinancing constantly and have been for years. And poorer people are more susceptible! Sacre bleu!
‘Ironically, Murray said one possible cause of foreclosure starts in more modest neighborhoods could be growing real estate values. ‘Because values have increased steadily over the last five to six years, some homeowners took out second mortgages and equity loans’
So just what did they think was going to happen? You wave free (in their thinking) money in front of people and guess what? A bunch of them are gonna take it.
This wasn’t a trend. It’s not the weather. These loan standards were purposefully lowered again and again for years now, to the point that you can basically get a government backed ninja loan now.
The “just enough rope to hang themselves” economy.
Plenty of credit for those willing to sell their future, after the “bankruptcy reform” passed.
Ubiquitous casinos.
Ubiquitous porn.
Booming “artesinal” alcohol as the latest economic development great hope.
And all the heroin you can inject.
Up next — another bankruptcy reform to allow parents to borrow against their children’s future income to keep the consumer economy afloat. Individually, not just collectively.
I very much enjoy a craft beer from time-to-time. But I have to agree that alcohol (and pot, which I do not consume) as an economic development strategy makes me a little uncomfortable.
I commented to some friends the other day that, at this rate, organized gambling opportunities will become like television screens — seemingly everywhere. Is that really what we want? Video poker in the doctor’s office waiting room? In Las Vegas you can play the slots in CVS. And I suppose people are using their smart phones for this purpose, too.
I skipped my fortieth high school reunion in part because it was held at a casino.
There’s enough vice demand to keep a few metros afloat, but not if you spread it out. Native reservations and state slots killed Atlantic City.
Craft beer is still a better industry than crypto. I’d much rather own a share of a brewery than BTC
Welcome to our instant gratification society.
People spending money they don’t have, buying things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t know.
Pure genius.
That’s right….
A wise man once said, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”
He’s right.
Falls Church VA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Mortgage Fraud Ravages DC/NoVa Area
https://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/
hey Oxide are you being ravaged on that side of the river?
I’m not Donk Craterton.
The new American Dream ?
“Couldn’t see this coming? There are radio and TV ads blaring cash out refinancing constantly and have been for years. And poorer people are more susceptible! Sacre bleu!”
“And poorer people are more susceptible!”
Yeah? Maybe that is why they are poor.
“Ironically, Murray said one possible cause of foreclosure starts in more modest neighborhoods could be growing real estate values.”
Oh? And why is that, pray tell?
“Because values have increased steadily over the last five to six years, some homeowners took out second mortgages and equity loans.”
Oh, you mean because the PRICES of the comps increased steadily over the past five years some ignorant puke home buyers just could not stand any hint of prosperity and just had to cash out their price-generated equity even though they knew or should have known that this equity was a result of the bizarre behavior of total strangers that happen to be buying in the same neighborhood that the ignorant pukes Iive in and were willing - even eager - to pay an enormous increase in price over the going price by somehow (and magically) using money that they did not have.
(whew)
“So just what did they think was going to happen?”
Think? Bahahahahahahahahaha. Such a word.
“You wave free (in their thinking) money in front of people and guess what? A bunch of them are gonna take it.”
A nation of dummies.
“This wasn’t a trend. It’s not the weather. These loan standards were purposefully lowered again and again for years now, to the point that you can basically get a government backed ninja loan now.”
And thus the banks get to enjoy a free ride.
😁
“And thus the banks get to enjoy a free ride.”
Situation-appropriate bailouts are only a few years ahead now.
I’ve got it marked on my calender.
That might have been the longest sentence I’ve ever seen. That actually made sense, at least.
Some of you posters need to clean up your language if you want to comment on my blog.
Realtors are liars.
…. and every closing a crime scene.
Trust me, I’m a REALTOR
Traffic must be picking up…trolls vs housing bears…just like the old days!
Trolls coming out of the woodwork to post are a crash indicator… just like in the old days.
Their losses will be incalculable.
Who has potty mouth?
Let’s see how “tech savvy upstarts” do in their efforts to break the stranglehold of the NAR mafia.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-tech-savvy-upstarts-who-think-they-can-finally-give-realtors-a-run-for-their-money-2018-08-16
A few years ago, Chad Torstenson decided to sell his house. His experience, he said, was “fairly typical.” A real-estate agent came to his home with a contract, a photo shoot was done, and a sign went up in the front yard.
“With the press of a button, the home was online and buyers began touring the home,” Torstenson said. “However, my listing agent was not giving the tours, the buyer’s agents were. After the home sold, I realized that my agent did very little to earn his share of (the commission),” he said.
“However, my listing agent was not giving the tours, the buyer’s agents were. After the home sold, I realized that my agent did very little to earn his share of (the commission).”
There is nothing more annoying that a seller’s agent that wants, or is forced by the buyer, to give tours. They always focus on stupid stuff I don’t care about such as the new granite, paint, design choices, etc., and gloss over the cracked foundation, asbestos, lead paint, barking pit pull next door who is big enough to jump the fence at any time, the highway noise, dangerous plumbing and electrical work, etc. All I want to do is flee. The only thing that I find works to get them to stop following you around is starting a discussion on the bursting of the housing bubble and whether they are willing to cut their fee to get the deal done. They always give you the same look.
A good agent, regardless of who they represent, would say take your time, I will sit outside. Please feel free to ask me any questions you may have.
The one thing I would agree on is that a realtor commission based on sales price makes no sense. They make more money as their job becomes easier. Go figure.
I’m not sure which group I’d most like to see “disrupted”: the RE industry, or the higher ed industry.
‘The city saw 1,119 new foreclosures in the past month alone. Though some of that spike can be attributed to damage from Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Attom’s analysts warn the foreclosure spike could be a sign of greater trouble on the horizon. Statewide, Florida saw 35 percent more foreclosure filings this month than in July 2017 — the largest single-state spike in America’
It’s been many months since it was reported that 10% of Florida loans were in some state of default. Greater Miami was over 12%. How could a storm at the southern tip possibly cause a 10% statewide default rate? I asked that at the time. It can’t. Florida is a huge land mass.
And do the GSE’s not have analysts? Do they not have ratings companies pouring over their tranches of this and that. They do, I assure you. Where are they?
How could a storm at the southern tip possibly cause a 10% statewide default rate?
There’s an obvious explanation here, Ben. This is divine wrath against speculators and people who live beyond their means.
“How could a storm at the southern tip possibly cause a 10% statewide default rate?”
See? Climate change.
Yes An ice age is over due.
LOL, how funny it would be if temperatures started trending noticeably in the cooler direction.
“…storm at the southern tip…”
Sounds a lot more MSM plausible than the ongoing invasion of the killer bees.
they’re gov workers w no fear
Yeah, the storm has been used as an excuse for faltering real estate almost since the day it hit. Strangely, the part of this state which was hardest hit (besides the middle Keys) was Jacksonville, parts of which flooded badly.
But here’s a better reason:
“But wages have remained flat and housing costs such as insurance keep going up.”
“Few people can afford their homes here because they are expensive, while median incomes are embarrassingly low.”
When I first moved here in the 1990s, this was a low-cost place to live, which made sense, because this is a low-wage state. You get paid in sunshine, as the saying goes. The bubble destroyed that balance.
Something I’ve been meaning to bring up: there’s a lot of different types of speculating. Refinancing and helocs are one. These people aren’t planning to pay the money back. They expect the price to go up even more and bail them out. Plus they can refinance again!
This is why they default so quick. Life happens, “heck I can’t pay that new mortgage”. Look back a few years and note how many times this happened - a few million?
They already got the money. So what if they don’t pay the loan?
Nothing says collapse like the ubiquitous no appraisal cash out refinance.
That raises a good point. The rise in foreclosure starts may stem from the inability of people that were living beyond their means to save themselves through refi’s as appreciation cools and at the same time rates are going up. These ppl were never really solvent to begin with despite outward appearances. They were just being carried by the wave.
Considering everyone who paid too much for a rapidly depreciating asset the last 18 years, in this case a house, are/were meeting their monthly mortgage payment using HELOC’s and cash out no appraisal refis, you’re correct.
“These ppl were never really solvent to begin with despite outward appearances.”
Deep down they were incredibly stupid despite their outward appearances.
“They were just being carried by the wave.”
They were just being carried by stupidly, their own stupidity and the stupidity of others.
“So what if they don’t pay the loan?”
That’s why the loans are government; guaranteed. The borrower and the lender are both backed up by our tax dollars.
😁
Which raises the question: why are cash-out refis being backed by the federal government? Why are “vacation” loans, investor loans the same? And the apartments! Only around 10% of the GSE business is with first time buyers.
where locals have no money but outside investors continue to inflate real-estate prices
Hmm…maybe the Miami Herald could shine a spotlight on who these “outside investors” are and why they have so much [Yellen Bux] to speculate with, while locals with stagnant wages and lacking living-wage jobs or job security are priced out of the market.
I expect the Miami Herald’s owners would spike any such story and fire any reporter or editor who dared to broach that particular topic.
last downturn for RE in N VA was fall 2005 to spring 2011
Miami is in 5th inning?
‘The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced Tuesday that Fannie and Freddie will both be shutting down their single-family rental pilot programs and ending their participation in the single-family rental market, outside of their previously existing small investor programs – Fannie Mae’s Multiple Financed Properties and Freddie Mac’s Investment Property Mortgages.’
‘According to the FHFA, the GSEs’ expansion into single-family rentals was conducted on a “test and learn” basis, designed to determine if the GSEs were needed to support the growing single-family rental market. But the FHFA said that it has since learned that the market can function without the GSEs.’
‘The FHFA said that it recognizes the “potential need for long-term financing for mid-size investors that own affordable single-family rental assets,” but states that it believes it is “premature” to allow the GSEs to enter that part of the market because the potential impact on rent growth, long-term affordability, for-sale assets, and homeownership is currently “insufficiently understood” and requires “significantly more extensive research and analysis.”
If the rule of law ever returns to America, we’re going to need a lot more prisons to lock up all the criminals responsible for taking down our financial system and ruining the lives of millions.
fre/fnm
that was fast for big gov
the casinos are still packed. people have discretionary income.
People are stupid.
Some irony: The “People are smart” campaign we bankers inflicted on the public some years ago only worked on people who were stupid.
Yes if we had truth in advertising, it would be titled “Few people are Smart”.
“…the casinos are still packed. people have discretionary income…”
Correction: people *think* they have discretionary income
Seen too many examples of those living paycheck-to-paycheck who *do* go to the casinos, or buy that $1K Iphone, or lease an expensive car in lieu of going to the dentist for a checkup, or saving *anything* in their 401(k), or cutting down on eating out..
Lots of very questionable life decisions that can only have very bad endings.
Not only do all of us pay (in the form of higher insurance premium, police service) but in the form of overall lower quality of life, as those who made these bad decisions are angry, delusional and blame those who made good life decisions.
death by refi
my relative got 100% refi in FL at age 77
negative cash flow for years
100% refi in FL at age 77
WTH?!
Should I assume we taxpayers are guaranteeing that somehow?
Very likely but it won’t prevent falling housing prices. No amount of braying, clucking and creative writing can change that.
One Against Many, if you get a chance you should check out the latest edition of High Country News, it has an article about Saint George.
Thanks Dan, I’ll check it out. I get upset at planners around here. A lot of local politicians are run by developers and they have allowed some stupid development to occur, such as allowing houses on ridge lines of the red rock of amazing hikes and destinations. I think it has tightened up a bit. St. George needs to add density here. They recently built some amazing density apartments for students at the university. A couple of new apartment complexes are coming online. I work at the hospital and what people don’t realize is that SFH are not what aging boomers need as they cash out. They need smaller spaces, elevator friendly access.
Tyngsboro, MA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Desperate Sellers Slash Prices
https://www.movoto.com/tyngsboro-ma/market-trends/
Here’s sumtin’ you pukes should keep in mind:
The PRICE that is paid for a house affects the VALUES of the comps. Got that?
If an ignorant puke who was somehow able go get access to the money decides to vastly overpay for a house then the values of the comps will reflect this in that the values of the comps will rise.
Rising values of the comps creates equity, equity is seen as wealth, wealth that can be cashed out and spent.
Thus an ignorant puke with access to money can create, for others, enormous quantities of wealth. The more ignorant the puke the more the created wealth.
The way this process will end and reverse itself is by:
1. Running out of ignorant pukes (unlikely) or
2. Ignorant pukes no longer having access to money (most likely).
Which means: Whomever it is that gets to control ignorant pukes access to money gets to control the creation and thus the flow of equity wealth.
Whomever gets to control the flow of equity wealth gets to control a large part of our stupid seventy-percent consumer-based economy.
Just sumtin’ to think about.
Big miss with July Existing Home Sales. Forecast +0.4 Actual -0.7
Even CNBC’s Diana Olick said that home sales are currently extremely weak.
“Lowe’s shares surge as investors laud new CEO’s turnaround plans, company to shutter 99 Orchard Supply Hardware stores
-Lowe’s reports second-quarter earnings and sales that top analysts’ expectations, but same-store sales fall short of forecasts.
-The retailer also announces it will be shuttering its 99 Orchard Supply Hardware stores by year-end.
-New CEO Marvin Ellison lays out his plans to mange inventory better and remain competitive.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/lowes-earnings-q2-2018.html
Sammy the troll showed up at yesterdays thread. Here’s what he said, redacted:
Sammy Houston
“You’re a p****”
This is why you can’t engage trolls. He’s made about three angry comments: all had some kind of personal attack and now the foul mouth stuff starts, as always.
My good friend is very angry.
That Realtor koolaid must be interacting badly with all his other psych meds.
Sad, sad Sammy
“My good friend is very angry.”
He’s an Angry Elf, Santa probably doesn’t even know he’s left the workshop.
The Angry Elf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ_dL_IMPP4
This is why you can’t engage trolls.”
This is why it is fun to engage trolls.
“He’s made about three angry comments: all had some kind of personal attack and now the foul mouth stuff starts, as always.”
Bahahahahahahaha … got to him, didn’t you?
What power, what control: Post a few words on a message board and some unknown stranger loses his mind.
I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.
😁
National Suicide Prevention Lifeline
Call 1-800-273-8255
Just Walk Away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ttKJwvFIgw
Allen, TX Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Dallas/Fort Worth Housing Market Runs Out Of Profligate California Spendthrifts
https://www.movoto.com/allen-tx/market-trends/
The plunge protection team is doing a fine job of stabilizing the stock market on a news day that would have sparked a major selloff a generation ago.
La Jolla, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As San Diego County Housing Correction Accelerates
https://www.zillow.com/la-jolla-san-diego-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Still looking for any proof people cashed out equity to pay off student loans….then defaulted.
That sure sounds like a great plan! I can’t believe no one has done it.
The HELOC or Refi can be discharged in bankruptcy, the Student Loans can’t. In the right circumstances, it makes a lot of sense.