The Price Cuts Are Due To Sellers Getting Too Confident
A report from the Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “More Charlotte home listings saw price cuts in June than a year earlier, indicating that Charlotte’s housing market is shifting ‘ever-so-slightly in favor of buyers,’ a Zillow report says. Sellers cut home prices 15.4 percent in the Charlotte metro region, according to Zillow. That’s up from 11.2 percent a year earlier. Price cuts in Charlotte averaged 2.4 percent. The numbers are similar nationwide: In June, about 14 percent of U.S. home listings decreased prices, up from 11.7 percent in 2016, according to Zillow. But one month of price decreases may not mean the market is tilting to favor buyers, a Charlotte Realtor warns.”
“The price cuts are ‘due to sellers getting too confident in a seller’s market,’ said Jason Gentry, president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association. ‘And then they’re having to do price corrections.’”
“The number of houses for sale in Charlotte in July decreased 16 percent from last year. Inventory is down even more dramatically from July 2012, when there were more than 18,000 houses available. Now, there’s barely half of that amount.”
“Gentry said Charlotte buyers shouldn’t be too optimistic. Buyers hoping for the market to shift toward them should look for signs like more inventory and houses spending a longer amount of time on the market, Gentry said. Neither has happened. ‘We’re not headed toward a buyer’s market yet.’”
From Seattle PI in Washington. “I’m going to explain why the market has been shifting towards buyers and secondly, I’m going to show you an example of a Seattle condo my client bought where we reduced the price and he ended up with an incredible 39th floor view unit. The number of homes for sale reflect a 37% annual increase in condos for sale in the downtown core. The months supply of inventory has moved up 67%.”
“For the last 6 years sellers have been be able to get 100% or more of their asking price. In fact, just 4 months ago, Downtown Seattle sellers were getting close to 5% more than their initial asking price. Recently, buying has cooled a bit (buyer fatigue) and the inventory of available homes have risen.”
“What this does is present an opportunity for prospective buyers to step in an negotiate their terms. For example, if you find a condo that has been on the market for 30 days or more, you might be able to negotiate a price reduction and even a closing cost credit. This hasn’t happened for nearly 7 years.”
“You may have noticed the negative headlines in the news the last 60-90 days. To be honest, some of it is just good honest reporting, but some of it is also sensationalism. You have to be careful what you read and how you read it. Real estate is hyperlocal. So when you hear about news stories and headlines that throw Seattle, Tacoma and Lynnwood in the same sentence, take caution.”
‘The price cuts are ‘due to sellers getting too confident in a seller’s market,’ said Jason Gentry, president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association. ‘And then they’re having to do price corrections.’
For the troll who asked, this is what I mean by ebola. Markets considered invincible (absurd, but continuing) suddenly get smacked in the noggin one after another, like it’s contagious.
FYI I lost my internet connection for 12 hours overnight and am still seeing periodic downtime’s.
The Ebola carrier doesn’t need an explanation. It’s just badgering.
I guess the the GSE did not go far enough in guaranteeing mortgages with DTIs of 50%, with 3% down mortgages where seller concessions count, and increasing the borrowing kinit in most areas to $453k.
If only the federal government would get involved more, stimulate the housing market more, so these buyers can get that equity.
In all honesty, I’m sure the federal government is coming up with more ways to boost housing backed by the tax payers.
“In all honesty, I’m sure the federal government is coming up with more ways to boost housing backed by the tax payers.”
They threw everything at it the last time and prices fell 40%+ anyways.
Oh well.
Seattle..bubble city…first knife catchers are stepping up to the plate
Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Florida Boomers Move To Nursing Homes En Masse
https://www.zillow.com/naples-fl/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Ok this does show a drop yr/yr in median sale price / sq ft.
Again. $/sq ft valuation is a poor performer as it excludes all items in the transaction except for the structure and the area of dirt directly under it.
Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Accelerating Federal Layoffs Decimate NoVA/DC Housing Market
https://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/
Realtors are liars.
Remember… Trust me, I’m a REALTOR
Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Double Digit Price Reductions Envelop Seattle Area
https://www.movoto.com/bellevue-wa/market-trends/
Do you think they will fall below $1mm??
‘Sellers cut home prices 15.4 percent in the Charlotte metro region, according to Zillow. That’s up from 11.2 percent a year earlier. Price cuts in Charlotte averaged 2.4 percent. The numbers are similar nationwide’
The media is making this murky on purpose. 11% price reductions is a bunch and suggests this “downturn” isn’t recent. Just the focus of the media is. It’s exactly the same with foreclosures. The REIC can’t ignore it anymore nor blame it on hurricanes 18 months ago, so they try to get out ahead of it by announcing some “new trend”.
Pick any month in the past 5 years and there were price reductions. It isn’t recent. Price reductions happen all the tiime in booms and busts. What changed is 11% reduced price last year and 15% did this year.
And price was reduced 2.4%. What happens is people think my house was worth 500k last year. My neighbor sold for 560 this year. I will list for 580. Doesnt sell so it is reduced to 570 and sells for 550. And this is the great “crash” happening now.
‘Pick any month in the past 5 years and there were price reductions’
You got a link for that?
You are missing something about the reductions: they haven’t sold. Loanowners tend to chase the market down. So there’s still time for these small reductions to turn into crater!
‘And this is the great “crash” happening now’
At least you’ve moved on from that humorous “outliers” thing.
Some people always overshoot asking prices, I dont need a link for that it’s common sense.
Idint move on from anything since I never said anything about outliers. Housing shot up for 6 years. It will fall back now. No outliers here.
You’re catching on.
Charlotte, NC Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Housing Bust Ravages Population Centers
https://www.zillow.com/dilworth-charlotte-nc/home-values/
*Select list price from dropdown menu on first chart
“For the last 6 years sellers have been be able to get 100% or more of their asking price. In fact, just 4 months ago, Downtown Seattle sellers were getting close to 5% more than their initial asking price. Recently, buying has cooled a bit (buyer fatigue) and the inventory of available homes have risen.”
“Buyer fatigue” What exactly is “buyer fatigue”? Inquiring minds wants to know.
Here’s a possible answer …
“Buyer Fatigue’ Setting Into Silicon Valley Real Estate Markets”
(snip)
“Hepp’s advice for buyers from her economic perspective: “The reason I talk about buyer fatigue is 90% of homes are selling over asking price, I think buyers who have been unsuccessful in bidding on properties are taking a step back. They should look elsewhere geographically to expand the market for buying opportunities.” Good advice if you live in the land of bidding wars.”
So buyer fatigue is the fatigue suffered by prospective buyers who find themselves losing out on numerous buys due to relentless bidding wars.
Okay so far. But wait! The article states: “Recently, buying has cooled a bit (buyer fatigue) and the inventory of available homes have risen.”
So if buying has cooled a bit and inventory has risen then that means the bidding wars must have slacked off, and if the bidding wars have slacked off then that means buying fatigue has slacked off.
So, IMO, the cooling of buying must be due to some other reason than buying fatigue.
On the other side of the coin (so to speak) of “buyer fatigue”, brought on by the losing of numerous bidding wars, is “buyer urgency”, which is brought about for the same reason as buyer fatigue - which is the losing out on numerous bidding wars.
How strange is it that the same stimuli will result in such different behavior amoung different people?
Hmmmm … so if the pool of buyer urgency people is depleted (because everyone in that pool has already bought) then the next pool in line is the buyer fatigue pool.
But if the buyer fatigue folks have any sense (and they probably do in that they did not get sucked into winning bidding wars as the buyer urgency pukes did) then they will see that the market is cooling and (because they have some sense) they will place themselves in the WAIT mode, which means they will become slow to buy. And this will do what to the market? It will put downward pressure pn prices, that’s what it will do.
Popcorn? Anyone?
TMA (too many acronyms)
Smiled at appearance of slight FUD (fear uncertainty dread) on Vegas city-data this week (thread “Overvalued Home Prices”). A title like that used to cause foaming at the mouth from all the speculators/homeowners there. The responses are mild; one poster’s FOMO has been replaced by FOOP (fear of overpaying).
‘For the last 6 years sellers have been be able to get 100% or more of their asking price. In fact, just 4 months ago, Downtown Seattle sellers were getting close to 5% more than their initial asking price…if you find a condo that has been on the market for 30 days or more, you might be able to negotiate a price reduction and even a closing cost credit’
And presto recent buyers can find themselves underwater.
lots of units in my building are suddenly on the market. They building is 30% renters per our HOA
1. Prices have dropped 5% - still expensive but a decent start
2. What i have noted is that all of a sudden the realtors are very dedicated? For instance having an open house on both Sat and Sun for 6 hours each, instead of 2017 experience of Sat for 4 hours. They have to work more now.
Are they more motivated? Per a Realtor friend of mine, here is a trick to use: If the sellers/realtors aren’t too motivated they’ll give the open house duties to a beginner agent. However if they are desperate for offers the listing agent will always be there to haggle.
Santa Clarita, CA (Newhall) Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Strategic Defaults Ramp Up In Non-Recourse States
https://www.zillow.com/newhall-santa-clarita-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
How long before we start hearing:
1. “People bought homes they couldn’t afford!”
2. “People were using their homes like their own personal ATM machine!”
3. “People got greedy!”
Notice how the last ones holding the bag are always the People.
I was thinking about the spike in foreclosures (which started months ago). Sometimes the straightforward answer is the correct one:
May 25, 2018
“In his corner of American finance, where hard selling meets hard luck, Angelo Christian is a star. Each time Christian sells a home loan, the company he works for, American Financial Network Inc., takes as much as 5 percent. Many of Christian’s customers have no savings, poor credit, or low income—sometimes all three. Some are like Joseph Taylor, a corrections officer who saw Christian’s roadside billboard touting zero-down mortgages. Taylor had recently filed for bankruptcy because of his $25,000 in credit card debt. But he just bought his first home for $120,000 with a zero-down loan from Christian’s company. Monthly debt payments now eat up half his take-home pay. ‘If he can help me, he can help anyone,’ Taylor says. ‘My credit history was just horrible.’”
“Christian can do this kind of deal because he is, in effect, making the loan on behalf of the federal government through its most important affordable housing program. It’s a sweet deal: He gets his nearly risk-free commission. Taylor puts no money down. If things go south, the government ultimately bears the risk. Many borrowers ‘are living paycheck to paycheck and, if they lose their jobs, they go into default immediately,’ says John Burns, a housing consultant.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10443
It’s not just their job John. What if a car breaks down? What if they fudged on their application (or Christian did it for him) and never had the ability to make the payment, or at least for very long?
Probably my all time favorite: “they should have never given me this loan!”
The answer will emerge one way or another.
… and the answer is simply…. The baffoons paid too much.
The End.
Gimmie a T!
Student Loan Debt Statistics In 2018: A $1.5 Trillion Crisis
Zack Friedman
Contributor
Jun 13, 2018, 08:32am
Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.
According to Make Lemonade, there are more than 44 million borrowers who collectively owe $1.5 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. alone. The average student in the Class of 2016 has $37,172 in student loan debt.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2018/06/13/student-loan-debt-statistics-2018/
Over 60 percent of all student loan debt in USA is held by women.
And that number will only continue growing as men stop attending four year universities.
Women make up 58% of the students so what is the big deal that they have 60% of the debt?
I predict a shortage of kittens at local shelters, as more and more women refuse to “marry down” to the guys who don’t attend four-year universities.
A shortage of kittens in shelters would be a good thing. The one I help out with got hit with 300+ kittens in recent weeks.
Wow. In Las Vegas? Lied Animal Shelter?
Coyotes are picking off people’s pets around here, and we’re in the middle of town. They have no fear of people and I saw one trotting up the block a while ago.
One of mine has been gone about a week, but hits up a lady two houses down for food, so he might be there unless he has another sucker lined up. It’s worrisome. I only found out that that’s where he’s been going when I asked around and now she’s annoyed at me. I told her don’t feed him. I don’t get these people around here; they’re very easily outraged ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hearts Alive Village on Rainbow Blvd.
Or they marry down but promptly divorce once they pop out a kid so they can score that sweet sweet child support $$ which just so happens to cover their rent and travel so they can stay active on instagram. Saw this happen to a friend of mine who is a plumber. Nice house, wife didnt have to work - but it just wasnt good enough. She even gave the “its not you, its me” excuse. It happened just as the last bubble was starting to burst so he was able to refi and give her half the home equity (a home he and his friends in the trades built) without having to down size. He just grinds it out, making payments on the house and the kid/ex (but no alimony thankfully).
She doesnt work and put the kid in daycare while she lives the high life. That kid is a symbol of his betrayal so theres resentment on his side and is probably going to turn out pretty messed up.
They’ve come a long way!
So she was the one with the edumacation and still got the child support, and still doesn’t work? Did he go MGTOW? I wouldn’t blame him.
I’m not sure what he did - I dont see him at the beach surfing much anymore. Its funny, his ex complained that he just drank beer (not more than 1 or 2 to my knowledge) and watched tv after work. Uh yeah - he just busted his hump so you didnt have to! Worked saturdays too while sunday was spent washing the cars, the dogs, and taking care of the yard. You wanna guess what she did for a little bit working? Real estate agent! I think she sold a few in the heydays but nothing major.
He was lucky in that he bought the land and built cheap before bubble 1.0 and was able to have a nice lifestyle for him and his wife via the equity appreciation - I think there were a number of refis. He was still a plumbers apprentice at the time so I dont think he was making all that much - probably somewhere around 40K? He started his own business around the time the child was born so he’s probably making double or more than that now, probably has a few people working for him.
This discussion reminds me, I will be so interested to see what happens to my friend down the road.
He is a Calif. state employee with a cushy pension awaiting him in a few years (if CA doesn’t go broke first). He’s in his 50’s and recently got married to his long-time live-in girlfriend. She is in the same age bracket. No kids involved.
So from his perspective, why the hell get married?! I suspect she is taking aim at his pension.
Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.
Mind. Blown.
Well, hopefully they enjoyed their luxury student apartment while they were in school.
I wonder if “baffoons” are created when buffoons take a financial bath.
I can help with the research in that area if you are truly interested in finding out.
Bark! Bark-bark! Bark!
What is it Lassie?
Bark! Bark-bark-bark! Bark-bark!
The Realtor is lying to Timmy?
Bark! Bark-bark-bark!
She told him it was a great time to buy!?
Marvin.the.Martian: “Take.me.to.your.Leader$hip, or eye’ll blast you with my illudium Q-36 explosive space modulator!
Opinion: Jack$on Hole guard$ the $ecrets of the Temple
By Caroline Baum / MarketWatch / Published: Aug 22, 2018
In 2007, the Jackson Hole $ymposium was dedicated to “Hou$ing, Hou$ing Finance and Monetary Policy.” The topic was definitely timely; timely, that is, if one is talking after the fact. Exploring the interaction between monetary policy and housing finance would have been more appropriate when the bubble was in its formative stage instead of during its collapse, which threatened to take the banking system down with it had it not been for government intervention.
“The price cuts are ‘due to sellers getting too confident in a seller’s market,’ said Jason Gentry, president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association. ‘And then they’re having to do price corrections.’”
No, it’s because Housing Bubble 2.0 is bursting and the previous inexhaustible supply of speculators and Greater Fools has suddenly dried up.
Now comes the sellers’ Wiley Coyote moment of realizing the bottom is a long way down.
Ok, the time has come to change my username. Apologies Ben - I know we’re not supposed to - but all the new posters here necessitate something more original than my previous handle to avoid confusion. I promise I won’t change again.
‘Lurker’ is now ‘Post-Structuralist’. I have no affiliation with anyone using any derivative of my previous (admittedly uncreative) nickname. Especially the trolls.
Little did I know when I chose it on the fly one day that we’d all still be here in 2018. But who knew that 2018 would be so interesting so far?