The Housing Bubble

A report from CNBC. “A slew of negative housing numbers for July are piling up on top of a slew of negative housing numbers from the last several months. Sales of new and existing homes are falling, construction of single-family homes is basically flat for the year, mortgage rates are rising and affordability is weakening. It certainly feels like the housing recovery that really took off in the last four years has come to a grinding halt, but it hasn’t.”

“Is the ultra-hot and competitive housing market cooling off? Absolutely. Home prices rose too far, too fast, and the market is now hitting a price wall. We know that because the price gains are finally starting to shrink, according to a report this week from the National Association of Realtors. Anecdotally, real estate agents across the country are saying that their sellers are beginning to come back down to earth.”

“Foreclosure starts hit a 17-year low in June, according to Black Knight Inc., and mortgage delinquencies are at their lowest level in more than a decade. That includes a slight bump in troubled loans from states hit hard by last year’s hurricanes.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “One year after Hurricane Harvey indiscriminately hit Houston’s wealthy and working-class neighborhoods, life is returning to normal for many residents, though to varying degrees. Property values, said real estate agent Craig Kooken, have come down enough to where young families who may have been priced out before the storm can now afford to buy in the area, known for its good schools and friendly neighbors. He recently sold a lot for $340,000 to a young couple who plan to tear down the flooded house on the property and build a new one.”

“‘It’s a good time to buy in here — if you’re not scared,’ Kooken said.”

“Flooded homes that were purchased by investors who renovated them and put them back the market have been slower to move. Four houses in Ashford Forest have been on the market more than 90 days and none has sold, Kooken said. Property values have plummeted in communities that flooded multiple times in recent years. Parts of Meyerland, Braes Heights and Bellaire, along with parts of west Houston that flooded from the Addicks and Barker reservoir releases, are now a jumble of overgrown lots and empty homes.”

“Those who can afford it are paying six figures to elevate their houses. Builders are starting from scratch on lots they purchased at big discounts. Many didn’t have a choice but to sell. Some homeowners have been unable to keep up with the mounting bills and are falling behind on their mortgages. The grace periods that banks offered immediately following the storm have expired.”

“In Harris County, 267 properties were sold at the foreclosure auction in July, more than double the number that sold in January, according to local data firm Foreclosure Information & Listing Service.”

“One thing most Harvey neighborhoods have in common is an abundance of for-sale signs. In Meyerland, home sales were up 30 percent during the second quarter of the year, compared with the same pre-Harvey period last year, according to data from Martha Turner Sotheby’s International Realty. The median sales price, however, was down 11 percent to $350,000. Bellaire saw 12 percent and 7 percent declines in sales and prices, respectively.”

“TaMeca Smith bought her house for $98,000 three years ago. Now it’s valued at $61,289, according to the Harris County Appraisal District. Aside from lower values, her neighborhood near Tidwell and Wayside, south of Halls Bayou, has changed in other ways. Most of her neighbors are back in their homes, but the atmosphere is different. A lot of the houses now have security cameras because of some break-ins that happened after the storm.”

From the Sacramento Bee in California. “After six years of price increases, Sacramento residential real estate just hit a wall. Is it the summer doldrums? Or are home prices in for a fall? Real estate experts and economists are of mixed minds. No one, however, is predicting a catastrophe like the one that happened here and everywhere in the mid-2000s, when home values in Sacramento plummeted 60 percent, tens of thousands of over-leveraged owners lost their properties and new home construction went into deep hibernation.”

“Christopher Thornburg of Beacon Economics was known as Dr. Doom for his predictions in the mid-2000s that California real estate was about to crash. His answer to the bubble-bursting question today is emphatic: ‘No, no, no,’ he said, ‘and, by the way, no!’”

“Most real estate watchers agree, however, that red warning flags have popped up in the last few months both in Sacramento and California. Home sales in Sacramento County and statewide have slipped, and some homes are spending more time on the market. Sacramento real estate analyst Ryan Lundquist conducted a twitter poll last week among followers that showed most of them suspect the market is in some sort of a bubble. Lundquist preaches calm. ‘We have to be cautious about saying the market is crashing just because (sales numbers) soften.’”

“But the California Association of Realtors has noted the market appears to have hit a ‘what now?’ moment. CAR President Steve White introduced the idea of ‘buyer fatigue’ in July, saying a ‘lackluster spring home buying season could be a sign of waning buyer interest as endlessly rising home prices and buyer fatigue adversely affected pent-up demand.’”

“Jordan Levine, an economist with the association, pointed last week to early signs of a slowdown in particular at the lower end of the housing market: Sales of starter homes, the least expensive homes on the market, have dipped in recent months. Levine said the shift in the lower-end housing market is so recent that it’s unclear whether it will even become a trend. ‘There’s not enough data yet.’”

“He said he’s among those who believe we are seeing the market shifting to a lower gear, with lower price increases. ‘You want to give incomes a chance to catch up,’ he said.”