Sellers Have Been Too Big For Their Britches
A report from the Providence Journal on Rhode Island. “While median sales prices for single-family houses climbed 3.5 percent in July compared to the same month a year earlier, the Rhode Island Association of Realtors cautioned that the market may be cooling as the number of houses for sale increased from July last year to this year, the association said. Also, for the fifth straight month, the number of houses sold was down compared to the same month a year earlier.”
“‘All indications are that the market may have reached the tipping point at which supply and demand begin to become more balanced,’ the association stated in its release. Association president Joe Luca said that, while an increased number of houses available for sale should ease pressure on prices to go up, he doesn’t expect to see them fall like they did a decade ago. ‘We’re still firmly in a seller’s market but the tide might be beginning to turn,’ he said.”
From the Tennessean. “Apartment rents in the Nashville area dropped in July after nearly seven years of continuous upward growth, and the for-sale housing market’s sizzling post-recession prosperity chilled. The slowdown is a welcome relief to renters and buyers weary of the seemingly boundless boom that has outpaced wages and rapidly inflated home prices to nearly double their 2012 values. ‘I’m happy to see that the buyer market is getting a little bit of leverage,’ said Jeff Checko, a Realtor with RE/MAX Advantage. ‘Sellers have been too big for their britches. The market is pushing back a little on that.’”
“The downtrend is likely a market correction mirrored in cities across the nation, rather than the beginning of an economic slump. ‘We’re seeing the same pattern in Nashville in markets like Denver, Seattle and Los Angeles,’ said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. ‘It’s slowing down. But it’s still, in many cases, above the historic pace.’”
“In the greater Nashville market, homes listed for less than $300,000 in Rutherford County increased in value while higher-ticket options in Williamson County saw price declines this year, Checko said. ‘It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause but certainly the recipe would include a climate of rising interest rates, overzealous sellers, and more inventory,’ he said.”
“There are 31.3 percent more homes for sale in this quarter than during the same period last year, according to a Zillow analysis of the Nashville market. The downturn comes after seven years of significant consecutive rent hikes and feverish construction of thousands of new units. Five new apartment complexes delivered 1,200 rental units and condos to the urban core this year, loosening the tight supply and decreasing demand, according to Nashville Downtown Partnership. Seven new apartment buildings are now in the works with 1,864 units expected to open incrementally through 2020.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Is the housing boom running out of gas? During the last few years, the home market has been on a tear in North Texas and in other parts of the country, with prices soaring and buyers lining up as soon as a sign hits the front yard. But there are growing signs that the fast-paced housing market is shifting gears. In North Texas, year-over-year preowned home sales have fallen in many neighborhoods, and for the entire region, year-to-date sales were up a measly 2 percent as of July.”
“At the same time, the double-digit percentage home price gains of the last few years have faded in Dallas-Fort Worth. At midyear, the number of prospective U.S. homebuyers who said they planned to make a purchase in the next 12 months fell to just 14 percent — down from 24 percent in fourth quarter of 2017, according to the National Association of Home Builders. That’s still another sign that the home market — while not in a traditional bubble — may be headed for slower sales in the year ahead.”
“‘It’s clear that the winds that have boosted sellers over the past few years are ever-so-slightly starting to shift,’ said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.”
‘The downtrend is likely a market correction mirrored in cities across the nation, rather than the beginning of an economic slump. ‘We’re seeing the same pattern in Nashville in markets like Denver, Seattle and Los Angeles’
You don’t say?
‘That’s still another sign that the home market — while not in a traditional bubble — may be headed for slower sales in the year ahead’
So it’s a non-traditional bubble?
Shhhh. We are trying to avoid causing a panic among our client base.
We don’t call it panic. Mustn’t spook the herd. We call it “overzealous sellers.”
Remain calm - all is well!
“Apartment rents in the Nashville area dropped in July after nearly seven years of continuous upward growth…We’re seeing the same pattern in Nashville in markets like Denver, Seattle and Los Angeles…”
The tsunami of liquidity that the Fed unleashed on the world has done nothing but make most people poorer. Yet, we hear nothing in the msm about this. 7 years of escalating rents and housing prices which have crushed the standard of living.
The msm doesn’t want anything to do with reality, they only want to push their globalism and liberal narratives, and control the conversation in order to stifle any sort of dissenting opinions.
I was just on Marketwatch this morning and there was some article about how the White House flag was back at full mast and the comments turned into what a bad man Trump was, with all sorts of insults. Some guy posted how classless the move was. I simply replied that I thought “classless” was when McCain publicly announced to the world that he didn’t want Trump at his funeral. Not only was my post deleted, I was banned.
Globalists gonna globe.
“I simply replied that I thought “classless” was when McCain publicly announced to the world that he didn’t want Trump at his funeral. Not only was my post deleted, I was banned.”
Serves you right for that kinda hate speech.
Now tell Alex I said hi and practice your goose step.
“So it’s a non-traditional bubble?”
Bubble-typing seems like a major advance over the bubble denial which was rife back when you started this blog back in 2004.
Tiny bubble$, which you can combine$, create$ even bigger, bigge$t type$ of bubble$! … It’$ “bubbliciou$”!
http://www.bubblething.com/page9/bigbubblemix.html
Now Rhode Island?
‘We’re still firmly in a seller’s market but the tide might be beginning to turn’
Eeee-bola!
These outliers just keep on proliferating.
Yes but when you Google something like real estate sales and price you still get a mixture of rising and falling markets. There is increasing concern about rate lock. People do not want to sell their older house and buy a more expensive house due to losing their low mortgage rate and paying a higher rate on the new house. When you consider the tax changes impact on deductibility of interest, it makes even more sense. Definitely challenging times for the high end but those problems do not for now seem to have impacted the entire national market.
It’s early.
Lol this guy.
Greenville, RI Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Providence Housing Bust Expands To Suburbs
https://www.zillow.com/greenville-ri/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
All indications are that the market may have reached the tipping point at which supply and demand begin to become more balanced,’ the association stated in its release.
Rockets soar into space until their booster and sustainer fuel - in this case the Fed’s QE - burn out. Then they hit apogee (the peak of their arch, followed by an accelerating descent back to earth that usually culminates in burn-up on re-entry, with some debris hitting the earth.
Bubbles and Ponzis work pretty much the same way. They soar, until they don’t. Then look out below.
Try to not get hit by space debris from the bursting housing bubble.
‘It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause but certainly the recipe would include a climate of rising interest rates, overzealous sellers, and more inventory,’ he said.”
“Overzealous sellers” - meaning panicked FBs heading for the exits. Add that to our list of Realtor-speak code phrases that keep cropping up.
Where did this inventory, all across the country, come from? It’s like it was there all along! Gosh that would mean there never was a shortage at all!
There was a psychological shortage. When the psychology shifts then this shortage vanishes.
Poof go the high prices, but as for the debt that brought these high prices … bahahahahahahahaha … it gets to stay.
could it be that folks were waiting to time the market. if it looking a downturn was starting, they would jump to list and get out? Just a thought
This is basically speculation on the sell side
There’s no hiding 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses.
Las Vega, NV Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Flow Of California Speculators Gets Interrupted By California Housing Correction
https://www.zillow.com/las-vegas-nv-89124/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“‘It’s clear that the winds that have boosted sellers over the past few years are ever-so-slightly starting to shift,’ said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.”
“Winds” didn’t boost sellers. Ben & Janet’s deranged money printing created bubbles everywhere. But all Ponzis meet the same fate. And there’s nothing “ever-so-slightly” about it, despite the REIC “experts” dissembling.
‘I’m happy to see that the buyer market is getting a little bit of leverage…Sellers have been too big for their britches’
Ah yes. The UHS who scolded buyers for their weak love letters to sellers for years, now turn the knife back toward sellers to keep the paychecks coming in. Seen it a thousand times.
No honor among thieves. What’s this world coming too?
Realtors could end up being our unlikely allies. After all, six percent of zero is zero. They can’t sell shacks, they starve, so they will be fully incentivized to “work with” greedhead sellers to price their shacks for a falling market.
True. The tides really turned fast last go around when agents starting to tell people that the trick to selling in a slowing market is to list at least 10k below the last comp. I don’t think that is happened yet except in the Miami condo market which has years of inventory. Undercutting the competition is the only way to escape. It is coming fast.
…list at least 10k below the last comp.”
And, pray tell, what does such a dastardly and evil thing to the equity of the comps? Does it not destroy this equity wealth?
Yes? And what about the spending associated with the wanton destruction of this equity wealth? Does this spending dry up? Yes?
Does our consumer-based economy take a gigantic economic hit if pukes stop sucking their rapidly disappearing equity money out of their Arms?
Arms = ATMs
Well, ARM’s might become an issue too!
The German word arm means “poor.”
“Heads I win, tails you lose”
sorry - i missed (i think) the joke. What does the Ebola comment mean in context of housing?
I have never understand it exactly myself. My assumption is that is has had something to do with the government repeatedly telling the commoners that any outbreaks where isolated and contained, when in fact it was not.
Real Estate Ebola (also known as Equity Ebola) is the psychlogical condition whereby Economic Reality, in all of its ugliness, begins to seep deep into the craniums of ignorant pukes and transforms their illusiory status of solvent and prosperous pukes to the status of Tbs.
Once this psychological condition spreads it is difficult or even possible to stop, much as the ebola virus is difficult or impossible go stop.
Both viruses are relegated to run their courses.
Tbs = FBs
thank you
you are very eloquent for a banker/
“you are very eloquent for a banker/”
Thanks. My mentor was Alan Greenspan.
“ I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”
― Alan Greenspan
Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Double Digit Price Reductions Envelop Seattle Area
https://www.movoto.com/bellevue-wa/market-trends/
Raw data, no need for dramatic words like “Crater”. RedFin’s data is available for July and it’s obvious what’s happening.
Change ‘Show Values’ to ‘Year over year change’.
https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center
Looks specifically at the following tabs:
* Median price per square foot.
* Sold above list (Seattle is bad)
* Price drops
Something changed early this year. I’m eagerly awaiting August data to see if the trend continues.
I can’t wait until April when people do their taxes.
“Whadda ya MEAN I can’t deduct all of this? The Real Estate Analyst and Expert SAID I could!”
That’s gonna be Spring 1930 for real estate.
Mortgage rates went up a tiny bit. We’re starting to lap the DTI changes made last July that allowed a ton of more buyers into the market.
This year, they have gone down to 3% down-payments for conventional loans. But maybe that hasn’t done a whole lot because there was a bunch of ways to get to no-down payments already (seller concessions).
If mortgage rates go back down, the show may be able to continue. But every tiny bit that mortgage rates go up, it will slow down housing.
“Something changed early this year. I’m eagerly awaiting August data to see if the trend continues.”
Well, we did have a correction in the stock market and interest rates went up earlier this year (in the first quarter).
Littleton, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Double Digit Year Over Year Price Declines Appear Nationwide For First Time Since 2008
https://www.movoto.com/littleton-co/market-trends/
Indebted, Broke, Bernie Sanders Millennials not able to save this FB from MAGA…
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/25/wouldnt-sell-home-to-trump-fans-now-price-is-100g-lower.html
Santa Cruz, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Housing Bust Spreads Coast To Coast
https://www.zillow.com/santa-cruz-ca-95060/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Obama bought at the peak
Well, no live$ forever …
Is FOMO driving you to panicked buying of U.S. stocks?
Signs of panicked buying in Dow’s 270-point surge and Nasdaq’s rise above 8,000
Published: Aug 27, 2018 1:11 p.m. ET
By Mark DeCambre
A broad-market rally midday Monday also demonstrated some signs of panic-like buying, market internal data show. The Nasdaq Arms Index, a volume weighted breadth measure, fell to 0.443 in trade at around 1:10 p.m. Eastern. The Arms Index tends to decline below 1.000 when the broader market rises, as the intensity of buyers of advancing stocks increases relative to the intensity of sellers of declining stocks. The number of advancing stocks on the Nasdaq, at 1,764, outnumbered decliners at 942, by a about 1.9-to-1 margin. Many see Arms readings below 0.500 as implying panic-like activity.
…
Cramer remind$ you: there’$ an epic $hortage of $tock$!!!
Here’$ one to grab, up 15.5% + … today$ $pecial!
HMNY
At least some people in the finance media are starting to put out the word. I just dont see that there is any safety investments when things go really badly in 2 or 3 years
This guy is calling it the Everything Bubble. “In sustainable, organic wealth booms, household wealth tracks GDP very closely. Starting in the late-1990s, however, household wealth decoupled from the GDP as the tech stock bubble helped to inflate American portfolios until it came crashing down in the early-2000s. In the mid-2000s, the U.S. housing bubble boosted household wealth until the 2008 housing crash. Now, here we are in 2018, and the gap between household wealth and the underlying economy has never been larger. This unprecedented gap means that the coming reversion or bust is going to be even worse than the last two, unfortunately”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/08/24/u-s-household-wealth-is-experiencing-an-unsustainable-bubble/?utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=social&utm_content=1740697273&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesMainFB#4b917a746b93
I’ve definitely cut back on risk during 2018. That said, I don’t think it’s ever wise to not own any equities in your portfolio.
As of Friday, 8/24/18, the 3 year Treasury was yielding 2.68%, the 10 year was yielding 2.82% and the 30 year was yielding 2.97%.
So, for an extra 27 years on the term, an investor gained 29 basis points in yield.
We live in interesting times.
Does this mean a lot of boomers won’t be retiring? Not to mention later generations.
“Please contact us so that we can help protect your hard-earned wealth.”
” …the gap between household wealth and the underlying economy has never been larger.”
Well, could bee everyone$ mattre$$e$ are gettin’ rather $tuffed.
When all the $mart phone$ fla$h: FIRE! … watch what happen$!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246234/personal-savings-rate-in-the-united-states/
“Household wealth has ballooned by approximately $46 trillion…”
Yet all I hear is how much debt everyone has.
Maybe that debt is somehow being portrayed as net wealth?
Nashville, TN Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Housing Market Contracts Ebola
https://www.zillow.com/charlotte-park-nashville-tn/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart