August 28, 2018

The Most Expensive Markets Seen Serious Jumps In Inventory

A report from CNN. “If you’re a real estate agent, odds are you haven’t been closing as many deals lately. ‘We’re hearing things from our real estate agents that we haven’t heard in three years about homebuyers stepping back from high prices,’ said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman on the real estate firm’s second quarter earnings call.”

“Foreclosures plagued the housing market during the financial crisis as borrowers struggled with loans they couldn’t afford and homes prices plunged. These days, borrowers are in much better shape, but there are signs that foreclosures are on the rise again. The housing analytics firm Attom Data Solutions found that foreclosure starts are increasing again for the first time since 2015. The trend is particularly visible in hurricane-hit cities like Houston, but also increasingly expensive places like Los Angeles.”

“The loans having the most trouble are those that the Federal Housing Administration-insured in 2014, when the agency was backing off on the very tight standards it had imposed during the great recession. ‘We’re seeing enough in these bellwether markets that I think it’s an inflection point,’ says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president for communications at Attom.”

The Boca Raton Observer in Florida. “Risky Business? Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales in Miami are down, with the Miami Herald reporting that ‘only 9.9 percent of the sales in January involved properties in trouble, including bank-owned and short sale properties. Those kinds of properties accounted for 12.7 percent of the sales last year.’”

“But they’re baaack! Borrowers and investors are hot on the trail of so-called ‘nonprime’ mortgages, according to CNBC. These are basically the same subprime mortgages, only supposedly better underwritten, for people with poor credit scores, the self-employed and others who are unlikely to qualify for a prime mortgage.”

From The Mortgage Report. “According to a new analysis from Realtor.com, some of the nation’s most expensive markets have seen serious jumps in housing inventory. The biggest increase? That was in San Jose, California, where listings rose 44 percent over the year. Seattle — another pricey Western housing market — took second, with a 29 percent spike in listings year over year.”

“Other areas that also saw big jumps in housing inventory include Providence, Rhode Island; Portland, Oregon; San Diego, Sacramento, Riverside and San Francisco, California; Dallas; and Jacksonville, Florida. ‘July inventory growth is in high-priced, competitive markets, and often at the pricier end of these markets,’ according to Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. ‘It’s not just California markets that have seen an increase in inventory, markets on both coasts and in the South reported inventory increases in July.’”

From Geek Wire on Washington. “Seattle’s 21-month run as the nation’s hottest housing market is over. Las Vegas topped the Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index this month. Buyers in cities dealing with the positives and negatives of tech booms, such as Seattle and San Francisco, are sitting out, said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin.”

“‘In Seattle, Portland and San Jose where prices have increased the most, the percentage of homes selling in the first two weeks on the market declined in June from 61 percent to 52 percent,’ Kelman said. ‘As U.S. home prices have increased faster than wages for 70 straight months, buyers in markets like these have finally had enough, at least for now.’”

“The purported slowdown, as well as Seattle abdication of the title of the nation’s hottest housing market comes as the city’s biggest employer has somewhat slowed its dizzying pace of growth. Amazon reported its first decline in headcount in nine years during the first quarter of this year, when its overall figure dropped by 2,900 employees.”

From NBC Bay Area in California. “A recent report from the San Francisco Chronicle revealed a hair-raising fact: thousands of homes that got a green light to be built are idling on untouched land. Experts NBC Bay Area talked to said it cannot all be explained by higher costs and a lack of labor. A look at the sun-kissed skyscrapers in San Francisco’s South of Market area and you may think new housing projects are popping up all over the city. Don’t be fooled.”

“‘Why are we only seeing ultra-luxury projects get built? Because those are the only things that developers currently can make any money on,’ said Todd David, executive director for the San Francisco Housing Action Coalition.”




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115 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 15:33:25

‘The trend is particularly visible in hurricane-hit cities like Houston, but also increasingly expensive places like Los Angeles’

Oh dear…

‘The loans having the most trouble are those that the Federal Housing Administration-insured in 2014, when the agency was backing off on the very tight standards it had imposed during the great recession’

Actually it’s 2014 and later. This was when Mel and the gang went hog wild cutting loan standards.

Comment by Lisa
2018-08-28 16:11:44

***
‘The loans having the most trouble are those that the Federal Housing Administration-insured in 2014, when the agency was backing off on the very tight standards it had imposed during the great recession’

Actually it’s 2014 and later. This was when Mel and the gang went hog wild cutting loan standards.
***

Oh yeah. And we’re still at peak stock market / peak employment, too, and already there’s trouble in paradise.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-28 19:24:39

Right. I have a hard time imagining a worse indicator for the Housing Bubble’s future survival prospects than to see price declines and an inventory explosion against the backdrop of record low unemployment and strong economic growth. Is it too early to start preventive bailouts at this point?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-28 19:26:34

It’s almost like a lightning bolt striking out of a clear blue sky.

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Comment by Magoo
2018-08-28 21:04:09

“there’s trouble in paradise”

Cheesebola Burgers in Paradise? I’m new at this…

Student loans failing, average car age creeping up, mortgage NODs spiking, seems pretty wide spread and yeah, good point about all this during peak employment. The punch bowl keeps getting filled up but the sun is rising…

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-29 05:20:30

during peak employment

Keep in mind that we are at a 40 year low in labor force participation.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-28 16:18:55

“This was when Mel and the gang went hog wild cutting loan standards.”

Cutting loan standards takes that ugly and nasty looking “un” prefix out of the word “unaffordable” and leaves behind that wonderful and promising and, oh so enticing word “affordable” (I feel orgasmic as I write this) which allows - promotes! - higher and higher and higher prices for houses AND (more importantly) this activity creates - CREATES - home equity for all the neighbors!

The higher to the prices the more equity, the more RICHES, for the neighbors and for the economy.

Hence Mel and the gang was acting in our, in everyone’s behalf.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-28 16:29:02

You pukes need go remember this: One buyer can bid way up the price (and hence the value) of one house and by doing this he will be creating equity wealth for many, many of his neighbors.

But the puke can only do this if he can get hold of the money. If a puke cannot get hold of the money then equity wealth for the neighbors will
not be created.

Enter Mell and the gang to save the day. You pukes should be grateful.

Comment by azdude
2018-08-28 16:44:22

master puke,

did you know my house works for me?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 16:48:09

If foreclosures are up in Los Angeles, that must mean people tried to sell and couldn’t. And that would mean that prices have been…falling?

Looks like those 3% down loans have become a bit of a problem.

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Comment by azdude
2018-08-28 16:50:48

they will be the first to walk. they have already proved its better to let the shack go and then get another govt loan when prices bottom.

 
Comment by Anonymous
 
 
Comment by Lisa
2018-08-28 16:52:59

And this is made worse by all cash deals, especially in the tech bubble markets when unicorn / private money was in full swing.

All cash = no one needs to qualify for the mortgage, bank doesn’t do an appraisal, no analysis of the price paid relative to the neighborhood comps.

It’s just poof. House sells.

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Comment by hunkydory
2018-08-28 18:46:29

You forgot the part where the local govt goons raise the taxes on everyones property so they can enjoy those 6 figure pensions at age 55 after a rough 20 years of working 35 hour weeks shuffling paper.

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 16:55:46

(I feel orgasmic as I write this)

Where, exactly where you in 2008? … Modifying digital $ignature$ on loan$?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-28 19:19:44

“Where, exactly where you in 2008? …”

2008 was a very busy (and, oh, so much fun!) year for me.

“Foreclosures up a record 81% in 2008″

https://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/real_estate/millions_in_forecl
osure/

😁

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 20:52:20

$eems oppo$ite the present tense?

“Orga$mic”? … Are ye embelli$$ing yer current realtie$

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-08-29 07:01:59

So the question is what is happening now did the standards continue to drop after 2014? Even more to the point since Trump was elected and it became clear that interest rates would rise did bankers become more or less conservative in their lending? Are home sales dropping due to higher standards? Depending on the answers to the questions the bubble is either being slowly deflated or is about to burst.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 15:56:27

‘Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales in Miami are down, with the Miami Herald reporting that ‘only 9.9 percent of the sales in January involved properties in trouble, including bank-owned and short sale properties. Those kinds of properties accounted for 12.7 percent of the sales last year.’

Only 10% are distressed. Good thing there aren’t tens of thousands of additional condos under construction there.

Wait…

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-29 05:33:02

Realtors are liars.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 15:57:56

‘in San Jose, California, where listings rose 44 percent over the year. Seattle took second, with a 29 percent spike in listings year over year.’

‘Other areas that also saw big jumps in housing inventory include Providence, Rhode Island; Portland, Oregon; San Diego, Sacramento, Riverside and San Francisco, California; Dallas; and Jacksonville, Florida’

I sense many new ebola outbreaks very soon. Isn’t it strange that these cities had the biggest shortages, what 3 months ago?

Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-28 17:59:40

That’s great! Here I’ve been told it’s gonna be an upward march for the RE in sillycon valley. Guess these realtors really are liars

 
Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-28 18:03:40

Something I have been noticing (in addition to local RE staying on the market longer and more price reductions) is many homes that showed as pending are returning to the mls as “back on the market”. Suggests to me the buyer backed out, wonder why 🤔🎢

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-28 19:30:29

There suddenly seem to be too many outliers to count!

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-29 05:37:59

“You gotta roll with it” — Caitlyn Vestal, Millennial, Portland, OR

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-28 16:08:46

Emeryville, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Bay Area Housing Goes Off The Rails

https://www.movoto.com/emeryville-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 16:46:09

‘A recent report from the San Francisco Chronicle revealed a hair-raising fact: thousands of homes that got a green light to be built are idling on untouched land. Experts NBC Bay Area talked to said it cannot all be explained by higher costs and a lack of labor.’

‘Why are we only seeing ultra-luxury projects get built? Because those are the only things that developers currently can make any money on’

Way ahead of ya’ NBC.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 17:09:57

“Way ahead of ya’ NBC.”

It’$ the alien$ Ben!

https://www.cnet.com/news/congressional-candidate-says-she-was-abducted-by-aliens/

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 17:56:51

IMO this news about the stalled projects in downtown San Francisco is the biggest bubble revelation imaginable. SF has become like Miami Beach, condo crater central!

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 18:52:21

Well, hurricane$ … Ver$es … Earthquake$? … Eye reckon the di$aster to $trike fir$t win$ the American taxpayer$ dollar$ devotion$ … What do you reckon in AZ?

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-28 22:36:20

Whatever happened to Rental Watch? He/she has a massive helping of crow waiting.

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Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 06:34:27

Curled in a fetal position somewhere.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-28 16:53:22

Friday Harbor, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Appear Nationally

https://www.movoto.com/friday-harbor-wa/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 17:03:46

‘The loans having the most trouble are those that the Federal Housing Administration-insured in 2014, when the agency was backing off on the very tight standards it had imposed during the great recession. ‘We’re seeing enough in these bellwether markets that I think it’s an inflection point’

The “sound lending” posters here have some crow to consume.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 17:19:03

“very tight $tandard$”

Eye’m confu$ed … Plea$e define: very tight

 
 
Comment by Norma
2018-08-28 17:14:53

On indeed.com there are a lot of new ads for foreclosure specialists

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 17:18:51

I’m starting to get emails asking if I want property preservation jobs. Not again Arizona!

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:14:18

Well Ben, as they say: “whatever float$ yer boat” … Knot exactly what that means in AZ?

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-28 19:18:19

I’ve got bigger fish to fry.

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Comment by Norma
2018-08-28 17:19:27

I think 🤔 this time lenders are trying to get in front of the curve and see it coming.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 17:30:16

” foreclo$ure $pecialist$”

Oh plea$e Norma,

Label it a$ it$: “we live … On yer death$!”

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-29 05:44:23

Wells Fargo is laying off alot of mortgage origination jobs.

The radio ads from American Financing (based in Denver) for mortgages are getting more desperate, and sad.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-28 17:18:58

Lone Tree, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Denver Area Mortgage Default Rate Triples

https://www.movoto.com/lone-tree-co/market-trends/

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 17:45:22

d$trump says Google bia$ against him!

Eye googled: d$trump equal$ = a$$clown Wiktionary

a$$·clown
ˈasˌkloun/Submit
noun: a$$clown; plural noun: a$$clowns; noun: a$$ clown; plural noun: as$$ clown

NORTH AMERICAN : vulgar $lang a $tupid or contemptible per$on.

Why is there even a dî$agreement with “alternative fact$”?

Comment by Obama Goons
2018-08-28 17:48:34

President DJT lives in your empty skull rent free.

Comment by jeff
2018-08-28 18:09:49

The Trump Band is marching in that skull.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HTGQSekPW4

Comment by hunkydory
2018-08-28 18:51:15

Indeed, for he is one of those low IQ types President Honey Badger lives to mock. They think they are clever when theyre really just annoying.

Might be the firewater, or herbs. Lots of self proclaimed geniuses viewing their efforts through clouded eyes feel the same. They’d all be supermen if they could only motivate to get off the couch.

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:28:31

“They’d all be $upermen if they could only motivate to get off the couch.”

Like the 400 lbs $uperman who only have x1 hand avaible to offer their “$upport” to d$trump … The devil i$ in the detail$!

 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-08-28 19:37:13

How very bigly of you to share your big thoughts here.

 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 18:16:32

Ha! … You reveal yer$elf! … You promote to read$ my mind … a Zealot without qualification$ … $peak on …

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 18:22:17

Fill your empty skull with good things my friend…. with something positive like this.

Saint George, UT Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Salt Lake City Housing Market Goes Down For The Count

https://www.movoto.com/saint-george-ut/market-trends/

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 18:44:59

Mafia dude, have you ever been to any of the place$ you hope repre$ent the truth$ you expout? Ju$t wonderin’, where the heck to do call: “my paradi$e?” ???

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 23:03:44

Housing

Bloomfield, CT Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 18:24:12

You don’t $eem to deny the di$qualification$ of d$trump a$ an a$$clown … Why the trepidation $? … In$tead, you attack$ me … Weak, & $ad …

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 23:06:37

Housing

Keller, TX Housing Prices Crater 33% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/keller-wa/market-trends/

 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 18:39:37

“Obama” goon$? … dudette, who live$ yer cerebrum?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 18:41:09

Housing my friend.

Allen, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Sellers Slash Prices And Beg For Offers

https://www.movoto.com/allen-tx/market-trends/

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:05:23

Why are you knot able to an$wer a query, without adverti$ing yer agenda? Ya seen like … the fella that $tates every day: realtor$ are liar$? … Why do ya figure$ the folk$ that dwell on Ben’s HBB Blog need to bee educated on a daily ba$i$?

Well, eye’m $low that’s fer $ure, please edacate’ me … no offen$e taken.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 23:02:17

Housing

Avon, CT Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/avon-ct/market-trends/

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 19:33:33

Ahhhht!……… housing.

Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/naples-fl/market-trends/

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:52:29

Ronald “raygun” Reagan:

“There’$ you go again!”

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 23:00:21

Housing

North Palm Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/north-palm-beach-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-08-29 07:26:07

Never mind Trump, Ronald Reagan is still living in your head. The man that defeated the Soviet Union and grew the country more in three years than Obama did in eight. Obama wanted to be the left’s Ronald Reagan instead he just was Jimmy Carter II, just as I predicted.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-29 15:43:07

just as I predicted

We’re not paying any attention to your thousand wrong predictions.

 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:46:08

Crictal thinking hard fer you to proce$$ in real time?

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 19:53:26

Housing my friend.

Beaufort, NC Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Plunging NC Beach/Vacation Housing Market Bankrupts Coastal Homeowners

https://www.zillow.com/beaufort-nc/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 20:10:55

Mafia dude, have you ever been to any of the place$ you hope repre$ent the truth$ you expout? Ju$t wonderin’, where the heck to do call: “my paradi$e?” ???

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 20:29:23

Housing

Arvada, CO Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 21:16:19

Artfull Dodger … Where is you rooted? ?#4

 
 
 
Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-28 17:55:08

A report from CNN. “If you’re a real estate agent, odds are you haven’t been closing as many deals lately.

Aww…

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-29 05:51:33

Starve.

Or maybe try getting a real job.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 06:43:18

Buyers are balking at shack prices even though the MSM has been keeping its relentlessly upbeat “Everything is Awesome - Buy Moar Stawks!” mantra even as socioeconomic fundamentals are deteriorating and debt and credit bubbles have reached dangerously unsustainable levels. Given that most of the sheeple still get most of their news and information from the corporate media, most have no inkling of how FUBAR the housing bubble is, yet are growing number are refusing to overstretch to buy a shack.

Now, imagine how thin on the ground buyers are going to be when inventory is soaring, prices are plummeting, foreclosures and jingle mail are surging again, and “for sale” signs are showing up on every block a la 2006/7. Then even the MSM truth-makers are going to have to start conceding that the bubble is bursting, while of course intoning that “no one saw it coming.”

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-28 18:10:22

Chandler, AZ Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Housing Correction Rocks Phoenix Area

https://www.zillow.com/ocotillo-chandler-az/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 21:13:15

Artfull Dodger … Where is you rooted?

 
 
Comment by MWR
2018-08-28 19:01:01

NOTE: This analysis is made to address a comment made in the previous post:

goudey: comment made in last post at 2018-08-28 13:21:51
There is NO evidence of a nationwide housing bubble.

Using the St. Louis Fed data I beg to differ:
I ran the nominal Home index Q2 2018 of 424.05 vs
Nominal Home Prices Peak bubble Q1 2007 of 378.25 (Calc. % increase)
(424.05/378.25 – 1) = 12.1% increase in NOMINAL home prices since the peak.
I ran Nominal Household income 2007 $50,223 vs Latest income data 2016 $59.039 (Calc. % increase)
59,039/50,233 – 1 = 17.5% increase in Nominal Household income.
(Note 2016 income (Latest available) vs. 2018 Home Price data)
Based on this quick analysis we are not at PEAK Bubble. We are on some area on the line lower than Q1 2007. But where is the question.
If at Peak bubble based on income HPI Nominal would be 378.25*1.175 or (378.25*1 + 378.25*17.5%)
= 444.44 Current Peak HPI theoretical. Then Calc. the % current HPI is vs. Theoretical Current Peak Pricing or 424.05/444.44 = 95.41%.
Take this 95.41% vs, Peak Pricing Q1 2007 to get place on the curve. 378.25 * 95.41 = 360.89 HPI in 2007 HPI equivalents.
HPI theoretical – 360.89 as calculated above,
St Louis Fed Data has Q4 2005 at 360.56
St. Louis Fed Data has Q12006 at 366.28.
So, my best estimate is that current HPI, based on the St, Louis Fed data, is currently in early Q1 2006.
So, ask yourself, if you knew then what you know now, would you have bought a house in Q1 2006 or would you calmly wait and but one for much less in 2011? With this knowledge, if you would have waited in Q1 2006, then don’t buy now, because we are at the same bubble stage now as we were in early Q1 2006.
My humble opinion is we are in a bubble, but not at peak bubble, and I expect the current bubble to run and grow for at least 1 more year.

Data Used: All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States from St. Louis Fed (Q2 2018)
Median Household Income in the United States from St. Louis Fed (Latest data 2016)
You can use this same data and compare back in the late 1990s vs. today and you see almost a 100% increase in HPI with a slightly less than 50% increase in Median income.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 19:21:19

Geez, plea$e cut to the cha$e!

“My humble opinion is we are in a bubble, but not at peak bubble, and I expect the current bubble to run and grow for at least 1 more year”

Humble i$ good. … Who i$ the prophet$ of this me$$age of enlightment$, exactly? … Dear

Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-28 19:42:32

Haha well an “A” for effort and who knows Mabye he is right! Stats are great but if we had a formula to pinpoint the timeframe of this bubble we would all be rich. To many variables that can arise to throw off these types of predictions.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 20:05:41

Well, eye’m all ear$, … tell who promote$ this is the Be$te$t time$ to purcha$e real e$tate?

Eye’ve head$ the “Oracle.of.Delphi/Omahaha” took a $3.100,000,.00 reduction$ on his real e$tate in thee.O.C.

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Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-28 20:16:29

Not shooting to insult here but Is there a plug-in to understand your cryptic verbiage 🤣. No really!

 
Comment by drumminj
2018-08-28 20:52:16

Is there a plug-in to understand your cryptic verbiage

I actually thought about adding that as a feature to the JoshuaTree extension, but….then I got lazy :)

Maybe when the shorter days get here/more darkness I’ll feel motivated to add that.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 21:06:40

$orry BubblevilleCA, eye do knot aim for cryptic interpretation$, eye think that everyone here “under$tand$” this exchange of though$ is about how knot to bee a fool about “True Believer$” per$i$tent promotion$ of using yer existence to grab onto real e$tate @ any co$t$! … Eye’m open to alternative fact$!

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 21:45:41

Comment by drumminj … Here eye am … Edit me a$ ye wi$h!

 
Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-29 21:23:40

Hwy50, yes I think most do. I can understand you about 1/2 the time ;)

 
 
 
 
Comment by steadykat
2018-08-28 21:35:41

National SFH sales spiked in June of 2006, last crash. Prices continued to ramp until the next summer of 2007. Inventory also started to increase dramatically over this same time period.

By the end of 2007 house sales had noticeably stalled to the point where even the most ardent housing pom-pom types couldn’t cover up the decline.

In 2008 the fun started. I personally believe that we are in the same place we were during the summer of 07 and that things get interesting next year, 2019.

 
Comment by Fisherman
2018-08-29 07:04:11

What about:
1) credit card debt
2) HELOC debt
3) Student loan debt
4) Auto debt
5) Medical insurance costs
6) Proportion of retirees versus workers

Lots of things have changed so the same rules don’t necessarily apply. But good on you for the effort to pull real numbers. They are enlightening even if not hard predictors of timing.

In my opinion, the trigger will be a catalyst of some sort. Something that the press can wrap their heads around. I think that once the collapse in construction hits employment and the decline in auto sales stacks on top of that, then things will blow up all over.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-28 19:23:48

El Dorado, CA Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Sacramento Housing Market Contracts Ebola

https://www.movoto.com/el-dorado-ca/market-trends/

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 20:30:55

Mafia dude, have you ever been to any of the place$ you hope repre$ent the truth$ you expout? Ju$t wonderin’, where the heck to do call: “my paradi$e?” ??? This.time?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-28 20:34:03
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 21:12:09

Artfull Dodger … Where is you rooted?

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-28 22:40:58

He’s in the northeast - MA if I recall.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-08-28 20:53:09

I’ve been here, Howard took us.

But I didn’t buy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAkMTu6q2pY

 
 
Comment by John
2018-08-29 00:35:01

I checked your link, what I saw was
inventory steady,
price per square foot gone up
percent distressed unchanged at zero.

Compared to a year ago much smaller houses were on offer so the mix changed.

Trouble may be coming but this doesn’t show that it is here yet.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-08-29 06:52:19

Please do not confuse him with the facts.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-29 08:29:50

Again.$/sq ft valuation is a poor performer as it excludes all items in the transaction except for the structure and the area of dirt directly under it.

Santa Monica, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As 2010-2016 Subprime Mortgages Fail

https://www.movoto.com/santa-monica-ca/market-trends/

 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-08-28 23:18:24

Deliver it tomorrow Mr. Ben.

Eye’s a’waitin the real e$tate verdict of the “True Believer$! Choru$ of “thou $halt bee!” … My time on this spinning planet, does knot afford me to engage in banter$ about “dotted line$,” of “American puke$” … or invert curve$ of Economic con$equence$ … Mr. Bear is the one to pay heed. (& you as well!) He offer$ for free his in$ights to long.term.thoughtfulne$$ ” … Like Vanguard & now “other$”you can inve$t for free. … anywho, you’ve been a voice to the ma$$e$, with this humble HBB blog … Hope.to.meet ya once again before our Bone$ are du$t!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-28 23:38:21

Twas a memorable afternoon.

https://pizzaport.com/locations/carlsbad/

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-29 03:29:35

Yeah, I used to hit the late-night bottle too, a long time ago, and I, too, became incoherent.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-29 05:58:19

Three Dog Night — Mama Told Me (Not To Come):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utPwb22sJLg

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-08-29 04:43:58

Interesting (to me) an OT post…..

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/harvey-weinstein-wants-appeals-court-define-a-commercial-sex-act-1137996

Under the relevant trafficking statute, a commercial sex act must be shown. But what exactly does that mean? If a commercial sex act is defined as something of value in exchange for sex — a quid pro quo — does the possibility of a film role represent value?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-29 07:56:38

“… does the possibility of a film role represent value?”

I suppose the same question could be asked of a loan application.

Being banker does have it’s perks.

😁

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-08-29 05:36:47

my house brings in the cash for me and pays for my beer and wine.

There is nothing like letting your assets do the work for you.

Comment by lostinspace
2018-08-29 06:42:35

Azdude. House pimp extraordinaire.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 06:56:10

Your adult beverages of choice will soon be Ripple or Night Train in a paper bag being passed around a trash can fire.

Comment by Young Deezy
2018-08-29 07:53:45

Pretty sure they don’t make Ripple anymore

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-29 10:54:37

There are no collectors with cellars full of aging Ripple? I’ve heard 87 is exquisite.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-29 07:11:48

I hadn’t considered the possible use of home equity wealth gains as a means to finance drug habits. I wonder how many opioid addicts use a similar strategy?

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 06:27:13

‘We’re hearing things from our real estate agents that we haven’t heard in three years about homebuyers stepping back from high prices,’ said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman on the real estate firm’s second quarter earnings call.”

The bidding war “winners” are carrion, while most of the FBs who borrowed above 85% of their shacks’ price better start packing their bags for Schlongville.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-29 07:52:37

… while most of the FBs who borrowed above 85% of their shacks’ price better start packing their bags for Schlongville.”

Bleed ‘em and reap.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 06:31:19

“But they’re baaack! Borrowers and investors are hot on the trail of so-called ‘nonprime’ mortgages, according to CNBC. These are basically the same subprime mortgages, only supposedly better underwritten, for people with poor credit scores, the self-employed and others who are unlikely to qualify for a prime mortgage.”

When the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate and its congressional hirelings try to ram the next banker bailout down taxpayers’ throats, will the sheeple bend over with the same docility they showed in 2008?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-29 07:51:06

“When the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate and its congressional hirelings try to ram the next banker bailout down taxpayers’ throats, will the sheeple bend over with the same docility they showed in 2008?”

Count on it.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 07:10:00

‘Muricans hitting the shack ATMs just when equity is posed to take a tumble. Haven’t we seen this movie before?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/2018/08/28/homeowners-making-cash-out-mortgage-refis-great-again#gs.M8u1GgY

(Bloomberg) — Rising property values and record household wealth is allowing homeowners to use their homes as ATMs. In more than two-thirds of refinancing loans last quarter, homeowners pulled equity to finance consumer spending, property improvements and pay off other debts. While these refis rose to the highest share of total refinancings since early 2007, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data, both the volume of total refinancings and cash-out refinancings decreased.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-29 07:49:42

Wonderful news! Our consumer-based economy gets go enjoy an infusion of money and so do we bankers.

😁

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-29 07:13:44

Gig economy workers won’t be buying your overpriced shack, greedheads.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/28/about-half-of-californias-gig-economy-workers-struggling-with-poverty.html

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
 
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