Is This The Beginning Of The End?
A report from the Boston Globe in Masschusetts. “Anyone who’s bought a home in Greater Boston during the last few years might describe the experience as brutal. Unrelenting demand and a tight supply have made buying options scarce and competition ruthless, driving prices into record-high territory. But as the summer housing market starts to give way to fall, there are signs that the pressure might be easing — if ever so slightly.”
“The number of homes newly listed for sale has climbed four months in a row, suggesting that homeowners are more willing to test the market and give would-be buyers something to look at. Meanwhile, some of those prospective buyers are heading for the sidelines — perhaps because they can no longer afford to stay in the hunt — which means less competition for those still looking for a home.”
“Demand has dipped ever so slightly, said Eamon Kearney, a Redfin agent on the South Shore, in part because some buyers are worried about buying at the market’s peak. ‘There’s some fear that we might have hit a ceiling,’ he said. ‘We have customers looking at stories coming out of California and Seattle and [they’re] worried it might come here next. That’s probably part of it.’”
“Other scorching-hot markets like Seattle and Denver — regions similar in size to Boston — have also seen a surge in tech jobs and a relatively tight housing stock. But in those cities, there have been signs lately that a top has been reached. Price growth has slowed, and inventory is starting to pile up as buyers simply can’t, or won’t, pay what sellers are asking.”
“‘Is this the beginning of the end? I don’t think so,’ said Dana Bull, an agent with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty in Marblehead. ‘Barring some catastrophe, I don’t see us heading toward a crash. I think it’ll be more like a plateau.’”
‘There’s some fear that we might have hit a ceiling,’ he said. ‘We have customers looking at stories coming out of California and Seattle and [they’re] worried it might come here next.’
Eeee-bola!
Debt Donkeys don’t like it. Rockin the crater, rock the CRATER.
Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Seattle Housing Market Develops Toxic Plague
https://www.movoto.com/kirkland-wa/market-trends/
‘worried it might come here next.’
What with all the tight lending standards that we keep hearing about and the 20% I’m sure everybody put down, what’s the fuss?
it might come here next
I think it just landed in my neighborhood. Several months ago houses were flying off the shelf around my block. Now there’s two that have been sitting. It’s been years since I’ve seen a house sit this long. Fingers crossed!
Rising interest rates + DJT new tax laws + the great QE unwind + Mel Watt’s last days = hitting the ceiling
“‘Is this the beginning of the end? I don’t think so,’ said Dana Bull, an agent with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty in Marblehead. ‘Barring some catastrophe, I don’t see us heading toward a crash. I think it’ll be more like a plateau.’”
“You’d be crazy to buy an insanely overpriced house right now, on the cusp of a housing bubble implosion that could financially devastate you,” said no realtor, anywhere, ever.
“Always be closing” doesn’t leave room for ethics, scruples, or fiduciary duty.
said no realtor, anywhere, ever
Lurkers and trolls, are you still in denial that Realtors are liars?
“are you still in denial that Realtors are liars?”
Make no mistake, have no doubt. Realtors are liars.
It appears the real estate market has reached a permanently high plateau.
No wait, it’s more of a souffle.
And there’s no time like last year to sell!
“In my 53 years in the business I have never seen a soft landing”
I think a “plateau” is unlikely. A big part of the price you are willing to pay for something is comprised of your opinion of its future value. So if real estate is appreciating it is “rational” to pay more than if real estate is at a plateau. The issue then is as expectations change from appreciating to plateau the price you are willing to pay is lower than the present price. The NYT used to have a handy buy/vs rent calculator. You could put in all sorts of assumptions about interest rates, inflation and RE appreciation in an effort to decide if you should buy. Holding everything constant except say real estate appreciation you could see that the price you should pay for RE was definitely partially set by appreciation/depreciation expectations.
‘Supply of Homes Surges 20% to 90% in Many Markets Just as Pending Home Sales Drop’
-In the white-hot Denver-Aurora metro, CO, active listings surged 82% from a year earlier.
-In the Vallejo-Fairfield metro, in the northern Bay Area, CA, active listings surged 69%
-In the southern half of Silicon Valley, the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro, active listings also surged 69%.
-In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro, WA, supply jumped 36% year-over-year.
-In Southern California’s San Diego-Carlsbad metro, supply jumped 28%.
-In the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, metro, active listings rose 24% year-over-year.
-In the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro, supply rose 22%.
-In the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA, metro, supply rose 20%.
-Even in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro, which is at the bottom of the list in 50th place, supply rose 13% compared to a year earlier.
Metro Median Listing Price Active Listings Increase, Y/Y
1 Santa Rosa, CA 695,050 90%
2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 450,500 82%
3 Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 465,050 69%
4 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,171,550 69%
5 Columbus, OH 248,844 60%
6 Ukiah, CA 599,050 42%
7 Napa, CA 859,300 41%
8 Marinette, WI-MI 129,975 37%
9 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 552,550 36%
10 Lynchburg, VA 164,500 35%
11 Wenatchee, WA 448,800 32%
12 Macon, GA 162,500 29%
13 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 678,964 28%
14 Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 349,950 26%
15 Baton Rouge, LA 239,950 25%
16 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–F. TN 356,048 24%
17 Modesto, CA 351,652 22%
18 Waco, TX 210,050 22%
19 Eureka-Arcata-Fortuna, CA 389,175 22%
20 Brunswick, GA 353,800 22%
21 Ames, IA 252,500 22%
22 Wooster, OH 162,025 22%
23 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 898,272 22%
24 Grants Pass, OR 350,050 21%
25 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 465,000 20%
26 Madera, CA 316,050 19%
27 Greeley, CO 379,900 19%
28 Colorado Springs, CO 367,000 19%
29 Great Falls, MT 214,050 18%
30 Opelousas, LA 140,800 18%
1 Santa Rosa, CA 695,050 90%
That explains why Sonoma is in the crapper.
Where’s Outlier Man? Passed out from eating so much crow?
Thanks for the link, Ben.
Around my neck of the woods in North Carolina, things don’t look too bad. New listings Y/Y are down by 8% and total listings are down by nearly 11% Y/Y.
There is a ton of new multifamily coming out of the ground, and pricey ($300k to $600k) new single family construction as well.
Glad to be part of the number 4. For the first time in awhile I see foreclosures showing up on the map in Santa Cruz in addition to a majority of the current homes with price reduced. Ebola is taking its coarse
Good old Santa Cruz where a 1970’s 3/2 ranch house with no insulation and no updates has an asking price of $900,000. Sure the weather is great and the beach is nice, but everything else about the place is just a nightmare. Homeless, illegals and bleeding hearts that somehow aren’t dead from lack of blood to the brain infest it. I still have fond memories of eating at Hobee’s way back when though.
The pros do not outweigh the cons that’s for sure.
the white-hot Denver-Aurora metro, CO
I am so sick of this “white-hot” phrase in the local media.
‘Supply of Homes Surges 20% to 90% in Many Markets Just as Pending Home Sales Drop’
Such an amazing coincidence! You don’t suppose that buyers getting cold feet at the exact same time that flippers decide to dump their HODLings en masse could have something to do with this inventory explosion, do you?
“‘Is this the beginning of the end? I don’t think so,’ said Dana Bull, an agent with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty in Marblehead. ‘Barring some catastrophe, I don’t see us heading toward a crash. I think it’ll be more like a plateau.’”
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
“more like a plateau.”
When have we heard that before? Give me a minute. It’ll come to me.
I must be permanently high…I can’t remember…
“At this time 85 years ago, Yale economist Irving Fisher was jubilant. “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,” he rejoiced in the pages of the New York Times. That dry pronunciation would go on to be one of his most frequently quoted predictions — but only because history would record his declaration as one of the wrongest market readings of all time.”
The Worst Stock Tip In History
Time
September 3rd, 2014
Jennifer Latson
“more like a plateau.”
Ironically, probably true. There is no “up” from there, only a steep drop.
Exactly.
‘Is this the beginning of the end?”
It may be the beginning of the end. Or it may be the beginning of the end of the beginning. Or it may be the end of the beginning of the end. Or it may just be the beginning of what may turn out to become the end.
But I don’t think it is anywhere near the end. But we will not know that until it is at the end.
Who knew Winston Churchill was such a fan of The Doors.
Sounds like a weirdly awesome lowering-expectations show on HGTV: Churchill, The Blitz, Jim Morrison, The Doors, The End, and YOU!
da bear
P.S. The end.
“The number of homes newly listed for sale has climbed four months in a row, suggesting that homeowners are more willing to test the market and give would-be buyers something to look at.”
Translation: FBs who bought due to FOMO and drinking the REIC Kool-Aid are now as nervous as a six-year-old at the Neverland Ranch as they realize they vastly overpaid and now seek to unload their “investment” post haste on the first Greater Fool or knife catcher to come along.
Meanwhile, some of those prospective buyers are heading for the sidelines — perhaps because they can no longer afford to stay in the hunt — which means less competition for those still looking for a home.”
Translation: Market sentiment has suddenly shifted from greed and FOMO to the dawning realization that Housing Bubble 2.0 is in the incipient phase of a bust that will dwarf what happened to the housing market in 2006-2011. Tapped out debt donkeys are wisely reassessing the risk-reward proposition and refusing to sign a mortgage when any upside potential is vastly outweighed by downside risk.
Be afraid, speculators and FBs. Be very afraid.
The article mentions “you can buy a house with 3% down”. You sure can.
Inconceivable! Our resident HBB REIC Kool-Aid imbibers have repeatedly lectured us on how lending standards have tightened up since Housing Bubble 1.0, i.e. “It’s different now.”
“The article mentions “you can buy a house with 3% down”. You sure can.”
If you want to double your monthly shelter expense…. but that’s nothing new either.
A wise man once said, “Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? Buy later after prices crater for 75% less.”
A wise man indeed.
Houston, TX Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Banks Weaken On Oil Bust Mortgages
https://www.zillow.com/meyerland-area-houston-tx/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
I was in Missouri last week and there was a billboard offering houses with no money down!
-In the white-hot Denver-Aurora metro, CO, active listings surged 82% from a year earlier.
Denver ain’t gonna be “white-hot” for much longer with an inventory glut like that.
Commented above on this phrase before I scrolled to this post.
white-hot
The Kool-Aid epidemic here is worse than I’ve ever seen in person anywhere, and I spent alot of time in South Florida in the 2000s.
Fraud exposed in official Chinese economic data?!! Well spank my ass and call me Judy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/more-fraud-exposed-chinese-official-econ-data
Shhhhhh - don’t tell ABQDan, he might have a coronary.
Poor poor Dan. Truth rolls off his head like water on a duck.
El Dorado, CA Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Sacramento Housing Market Contracts Ebola
https://www.movoto.com/el-dorado-ca/market-trends/
About time! Sacramento needs some of that good ole Ebola!
Don’t hold your breath…..
Days on Market = 60
Price/SF up 7%
We all know HA pays no attention to reality.
Ebola
Camarillo, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Home Sellers Beg For Offers. Any Offers
https://www.movoto.com/camarillo-ca/market-trends/
“Fried crow – a traditional Lithuanian dish | The Baltic Review”
https://baltic-review.com/fried-crow-lithuanian-dish/
“You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey’s uh, crow-kabobs, crow creole, crow gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There’s pineapple crow, lemon crow, coconut crow, pepper crow, crow soup, crow stew, crow salad, crow and potatoes, crow burger, crow sandwich.”
– Bubba’s crow recipes to add a little variety for you eaters of crow
Heritage Home Group cutting more than 700 jobs
By Spectrum News Staff | August 29, 2018 @5:27 PM
LENOIR, N.C. — Hundreds of people in Lenoir are facing layoffs.
High Point-based Heritage Home Group is cutting more than 700 jobs at its upholstery facilities in Lenoir.
“This is a small community. This used to be the furniture capital of the world and now not so much. There are a few decent paying jobs that a few people will be able to absorb, but by and large it’s going to take time,” employee Chuck Gore said.
The company released a statement saying the layoffs come as the company tries to find buyers for its Thomasville and Company and Broyhill businesses.
“Although the Company and its advisors continue to work diligently to identify and negotiate with prospective buyers for our Thomasville & Co. and Broyhill business units, we have not yet been able to reach an agreement with a potential buyer to serve as a stalking horse bidder for those businesses in the timeframe originally anticipated. Based on the delay in the sale process and the uncertainties in our efforts to find a suitable buyer for those businesses, we have provided WARN Act notices to employees at our Lenoir Upholstery and Lenoir Case facilities. This notice does not affect any other employees. Active discussions with potential buyers for these businesses, including the Lenoir facilities, are in progress. We deeply appreciate the dedication of our employees during this period of uncertainty. The previously announced sale of the Luxury business remains on track, and the auction has been set for September 20, 2018.” - Robert Albergotti, Chief Restructing Officer
I heard a radio commercial today offering people HELOC’s to free up cash to buy Bitcoin. What a time to be alive!
Commercial from American Financing dot net? They’re all over the radio here and a big sponsor on 850 KOA:
“Four ex-employees accuse Aurora-based American Financial Corp. in a lawsuit of firing them after trying to expose the company’s alleged mortgage fraud.
The mortgage originator allegedly misled at least a half-dozen banks and finance companies with faked documents and consumer loan applications, according to the whistle-blower lawsuit.
The action in Arapahoe County district court claims managers at the company knew of the alleged mortgage fraud the employees discovered and, in some cases, worked hard to try to cover it up.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/08/american-financial-corp-mortgage-fraud-aurora/
Why not sell your house before prices crash further and put all of the proceeds into Bitcoin? The cryptocurrency experts offer their frequent assurances that Bitcoin always goes up in the long run, just like real estate and stocks do.
** PANIC **
Was browsing around and wound up in the IE and ran into this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Rancho-Cucamonga/10225-Chaparral-Way-91730/unit-C/home/3296268
Look at the History… listed for $309,900 back in April 2018. Already overpriced. This would have sold for $240K-$260K back in 2014 – 2015. This flipper talked them down to $291K. Swoop?
Basically, it looks like a flooring/paint/kitchen combo for a quick flip in a so-so area of Rancho. I’m guessing $15K in work. Lists for $350K. After comiss, a cool $38,000. Ka-ching. Note: 2000 sqft + houses in this area back in 2012 sold for around the same price. This 1980’s condo is 1110 sqft with a $375 assoc. fee.
Notice the price drop in four days: $340K.
Why so sudden? No offers, obviously. Probably not a single one.
Five more days and…… $330K
If it sells for this, seller will escape with ~$20K in pocket.
I give it less than 30 days until it’s reduced to cost basis: $310K.
Market is turning around, I’m definitely noticing it. I’m in the market to buy, btw.
Try not to catch yourself a falling 🔪.
from the small business I do on craigslist it seems people r broke.
I’ve noticed no wait times and lots of vacant seats on normally busy weekend evenings at Applebee’s-comparable restaurants as of late… just like in the 2007-2009 period. Makes me wonder if it recently got harder for homeowners to cash out equity wealth gains.
I appreciate the emojis professor, although I’m not quite sure how you do it. I often listen to these posts when I am running (copy, select all, and have Siri “speak” to me). Siri always reads your posts as “Professor bear face”.
Bet you could rent a place like that for the same or even less than the mortgage and also not have to deal directly with the HOA or there fees (which never go down…). IMO, HOA tied RE is terrible, your at the mercy of others to make the decisions of what color your house is, what you can do / when you do it. If your truly set on buying an HOA bound property you may consider “interviewing” other owners to see what they say of that HOA. Ask them how many times the HOA has increased, how they treat maintenance requests, how strict the rules are (they should have a long drawn out legal doc explaining the rules). Aside from the benefits like pool maintenance, outside repairs, etc, an HOA can make you feel like a renter. Just my biased opinion as a previous HOA shack mortgage owner
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Housing Turns Radioactive
https://www.zillow.com/south-of-market-san-francisco-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Comment by Jingle Male
2018-08-29 14:30:16
I see you did not use Movoto for this post……..
https://www.movoto.com/san-francisco-ca/market-trends/
Is that because it showes prices are up, days on market are down, and inventory is dropping?
HA!
Reply to this comment
Comment by Jingle Male
2018-08-30 03:53:58
Crickets…..chirping.
Ebola
Cupertino, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Bay Area Market Implodes Under The Weight Of Rampant Mortgage Fraud</b.
https://www.movoto.com/cupertino-ca/market-trends/
Bloomberg — How Big Tech Swallowed Seattle:
“More than 114,000 people have moved to Seattle since 2010, increasing the population by 19 percent and making it the fastest-growing big city in the U.S. this decade. There haven’t been nearly enough new places for them to live, leading to steep increases in housing costs in a city poorly equipped to absorb people.
A poll published in May showed that the soaring cost of living had overtaken traffic as residents’ most-hated part of life in greater Seattle.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-30/how-big-tech-swallowed-seattle?srnd=premium
Traffic in downtown Seattle must put LA’s to shame! And the greenhouse gas emissions from all those single occupancy vehicles clogging Seattle roadways is shameful. I’m surprised their enviros don’t pass laws restricting commuters to travel by bicycle.
I’m surprised their enviros don’t pass laws restricting commuters to travel by bicycle.
If they could figure out a way to do it to everyone but themselves…
It’s actually not as bad as that:
https://seattletransitblog.com/2017/02/09/amidst-unprecedented-growth-transit-is-saving-downtown/
I need cash today.
How healthy are your body parts?
when I pull some more equity I might throw u a bone.
Realtors are getting hungry in Denver. At least 4 tried to get me to use them this week, my mailbox is full of fliers and postcards for homes on the market, and I am seeing a huge number of open house signs when I used to see none (some listing multiple day open houses - implying that one will not be enough and that the sellers were desperate). Many have multiple price reductions. Sadly, however, I would say we are only down about 1%. People are still initially listing 10% higher than last years sales, as they got addicted to the equity infusions and believe it is their entitlement.
We got really crazy with all the drug people moving in the last few years. I met a friend of mine in the RiNo District for dinner last night. Until recently, it was best known for environmental contamination, gangs and public housing projects. I had to search over 20 minutes for a parking spot in front of a boarded up public housing unit to eat a Chinese place where entrees started at over $22 per person. In between the shacks, trash and homeless were new $800k plus townhomes, and extremely over-priced craft breweries and galleries. One economic downtown and I can easily imagine all the hipsters being foreclosed on and the neighborhood going back to the gangs.
“… they got addicted to the equity infusions and believe it is their entitlement.”
True gifts from God. Send them to me.
A plateau! Same word used a decade later.
Same word used nine decades earlier for stocks. Makes me wonder whether stocks are immune to ebola. (Seems like it didn’t turn out that way in the 2007-2009 episode, but this time is different.)
Is there a market anywhere in the world, at anytime that has actually plateau’ed? Stocks, metals, housing….anything actually ran parabolic, then hit a plateau?