The Housing Bubble

A report from the Riverdale Standard on Florida. “These are some of the findings of the 2018 Miami-Dade Real Estate Study. Analysts say the increased optimism reflects an oversupply of unsold condos and a growing number of new rentals buildings — two factors that should make sellers and landlords adjust their asking prices in order to remain competitive. ‘You’re starting to see the repercussions of overbuilding,’ said Peter Zalewski, founder of a website that tracks condo development in South Florida. ‘The supply of rental apartments is going through the roof and as the cranes come down, rents are going to come down, too. And there’s a 32-month supply of condos in downtown Miami alone, so the only way you’re going to move a condo in this market is to lower your price.’”

“Half of the study respondents said the current market inventory of luxury properties priced at $1 million and above is high, with comments such as ‘the industry is stagnant,’ ‘tons of inventory on the market much longer’ and ‘buyers’ market right now.’ Daniel de la Vega, president of One Sotheby’s International Realty, said luxury properties are trading at 15 percent to 20 percent lower than their asking price, but they’re still selling.”

“For the fourth year in a row, Miami Beach was once again named the most overvalued neighborhood, with a median price per square foot price of $520, . Brickell clocked in second at $497 per square foot, while the luxury enclaves of Sunny Isles Beach ($554) and Key Biscayne ($753) tied for third. ‘Brickell has a majority of the properties that are condos,’ a broker from Miami commented for the study. ‘They are always overvalued, because they are catering to offshore buyers.’”

“Henry Torres, CEO of The Astor Companies, said that although the pre-construction buyers overall at his Merrick Manor condo development at 4200 Laguna St. are 60 percent foreign, this year’s buyers have been predominantly locals, with foreign buyers ‘few and far between,’ he said. ‘We used to have a big influx from Venezuela, but that has slipped to practically nothing,’ Torres said.”

From Fox 5 New York. “Housing inventory in New York City is at a 7 year high and it is one of the best times to buy in recent history, especially as a lot of homes typically come on the market in September in our area. Grant Long, Senior Economist at StreetEasy says he’s expecting that inventory to hit new records in September and October. Once that happens, expect homes that have been on the market a little bit longer to lower their prices to compete for buyers.”

“Grant says the striking part about the housing market right now is that there’s a lot of inventory across the city. So whether you’re looking in Manhattan, Brooklyn or Queens, there’s a good chance you’ll find plenty of homes available. And that means prices could come down even further.”

“Grant says 1 in 4 homes on the market right now has had a price cut. Overall it is a buyer’s market in New York right now. And the best thing buyers can do is take their time. Grant says there’s a lot to choose from and buyers have the upper hand. They can afford to pass on a home that isn’t quite right for them or isn’t at the right price and wait for a better fit.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “If you’re looking to build wealth, it might be wiser to rent a home in Dallas-Fort Worth than to buy. That’s the finding of a study by economists at Florida Atlantic and Florida International universities. That’s because Dallas-Fort Worth has the most ‘overheated’ residential real estate market, in terms of price appreciation, among the 23 largest metro areas in the U.S., according to the economists. They don’t think the region’s home price growth is sustainable.”

“‘I can’t tell you when it’s going to happen, but there’s going to be some downward [pricing] pressure,’ said Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University and co-creator of the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent (BH&J) Index. ‘There’s 50 or 49 other times this has happened, and prices always come down. The prices of the houses will eventually get too high. I can’t tell you when, but I know they’ll come down.’”

“North Texas home price increases have been decelerating in recent months as the supply of houses for sale has grown and purchases have slowed. The Dallas-Plano-Irving metro saw a year-over-year increase of more than 32 percent in housing inventory — homes, new and old, available for sale — during the April-June period, according to Trulia.”

“That means the Dallas metro’s inventory grew to include 14,875 houses, up from 11,653 in the first quarter — and up from 11,234 houses for sale in the second quarter of 2017. The Fort Worth-Arlington metro was similar, with nearly 35 percent inventory growth in that time period.”

“Ben Caballero, CEO of Addison-based HomesUSA.com, makes his living based on consumers buying homes. He holds a Guinness World Record as the most productive real estate agent in the world, in terms of sales. What he’s not buying is the notion that North Texas is facing a housing bubble.”

“‘I don’t see that nationally or locally that there’s any fear of a bubble,’ he said, echoing the sentiment that prices are easing locally as supply picks up. ‘I haven’t talked to anybody in the industry that’s concerned about a bubble and that’s Realtors, everybody. If you’re talking about a bubble, I don’t see it.’”

“He also thinks that, even at eight years, owning a home would still win out financially in most cases. ‘I would say there’s been very few times in history where you have an eight-year period that if you held a home for eight years you’d be in a negative [financial] situation,’ he said.”

From Dear Monty. “Reader Question: Before the banks caused the 2008 meltdown, I purchased my home for $475,000. Homes directly around me have recently sold for anywhere between $215,000-$360,000. Prices are finally rebounding here, and I have the most beautiful home in the area. Can I expect to make any money by putting my home for sale or should I wait to die in this house before I make a profit?”

“Monty’s Answer: Many areas have recovered entirely from the meltdown our federal government created years before 2008 (more about this below). We all don’t live in Seattle, San Francisco, or Las Vegas, but around the country, even the slowest markets to recover are progressing. Currently, many pundits expect the market’s appreciation rate to cool because of rising mortgage rates.”

“Many consumers incorrectly believe the banks were responsible for the 2008 meltdown. While the banks and many others were undoubtedly complicit, they were not the cause. The Federal government runs the banks. Insights from folks such as Warren Buffett, who studies financial markets daily, are excellent sources of information. Here are excerpts from his 2008 Annual Letter to Shareholders for his perspective on the meltdown.”

“‘Derivatives are dangerous … They allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to engage in massive misstatements of earnings for years,’ Buffett wrote. ‘So indecipherable were Freddie and Fannie that their federal regulator, OFHEO, whose more than 100 employees had no job except the oversight of these two institutions, totally missed their cooking of the books.’”

“‘On June 15, 2003, OFHEO sent its 2002 report to Congress — specifically to its four bosses in the Senate and House, among them none other than Messrs. Sarbanes and Oxley. The report’s 127 pages included a self-congratulatory cover-line: ‘Celebrating 10 Years of Excellence.’ The transmittal letter and report were delivered nine days after the CEO, and CFO of Freddie had resigned in disgrace, and the COO had been fired. No mention of their departures was made in the letter, even while the report concluded, as it always did, that ‘Both enterprises were financially sound and well managed.’ In truth, both enterprises had engaged in massive accounting shenanigans for some time. Finally, in 2006, OFHEO issued a 340-page scathing chronicle of the sins of Fannie that, more or less, blamed the fiasco on every party but — you guessed — Congress and OFHEO.’”