Speculative Expectations Have Been Taken Out Of The Market
A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. “Buyers’ fear of being left out is waning as real estate sales in the Vancouver region decline to a six-year low while prices for various housing types weaken during a summer slump. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver saw 1,929 residential sales in August, down 36.6 per cent from the same month in 2017. It marks the lowest number of sales for August since 2012, with total transactions down 25.2 per cent compared with the 10-year average for the month.”
“‘The fear-of-missing-out mentality is much weaker. Buyers are being patient and not being rushed into purchases,’ said Josh Gordon, assistant professor at Simon Fraser University’s School of Public Policy. ‘Speculative expectations, where people think that prices will continuously increase at strong rates, have been taken out of the market for now.’”
“Steve Saretsky, a real estate agent who also writes a housing newsletter, said the trend of fewer detached houses being flipped could soon spill over to result in less speculation for presale condos in Canada’s most expensive housing market.”
“Mr. Saretsky notes that the price for detached houses sold within the City of Vancouver averaged $2,493,952 in August, down 19 per cent from the record high of $3,080,907 in April, 2016 – four months before the introduction of the foreign-buyers tax in the Vancouver area.”
The Daily Mail on Australia. “Housing prices in Australia’s top cities have been steadily falling for months now, and it appears there is no end in sight. Multi million dollar properties in a handful of Sydney’s most affluent neighbourhoods are experiencing the fastest price falls in the nation, falling twice as fast as less well wealthy suburbs. Overall property value in these suburbs is sliding at a rate of eight per cent annually, in comparison to the average of four per cent in properties in lower socio-economic areas, an analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley shows.”
“A property in Point Piper, the home of Australia’s most former prime minister, could be falling by upwards of $1.2 million a year, or $23,000 a week, when looking at the suburb’s median house price of $15 million.”
From Domain News in Australia. “The cranes filling Sydney’s skyline should be enough to prompt investors to consider selling up and tapping out of the city’s cooling property market, according to a leading economist. With a ‘huge increase’ in supply set to come onto the market at a time of tightening bank-lending standards, sensible investors should be weighing up their options, according to AMP Capital chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver.”
“‘If I was an investor … I’d be tempted to get out,’ Dr Oliver told Domain. ‘Particularly if there are cranes all over the place.’”
“But other experts disagree, urging people to hold on to their properties in the falling market, or even snap up more. ‘Every percentage drop makes the market more affordable,’ said Property Buyer chief executive Rich Harvey.”
“While Dr Oliver is wary of encouraging people to sell, he thinks investors could be better off cashing-out of the Sydney market, which he expects will continue to fall up to 2020. ‘We’ve now come back about 5.5 per cent, which is really just a flick off the top,’ he said. ‘A better time to sell would have been a year ago, but I think there is still more to come.’”
‘But other experts disagree, urging people to hold on to their properties in the falling market, or even snap up more’
That’s what they said in Vancouver two years ago. BTW, these Vancouver stats above are the UHS numbers. It’s a lot worse.
But whatever you do, Dont PANIC OK. Dont panic! Please dont panic!!!! I got 20 investment properties I need to unload so Dont SELL…PLEASE BUY MORE PLEASSEE
Speaking of that, the Seattle Times said the latest shack numbers were coming out this past Monday. I haven’t seen boo.
I just checked in at SeattleClownHouse… Clown says demand is high, supply is low and prices are going up.
Lying 🤡
What site?
SeattleClownHouse
FOMO: a condition in which millennial FB’s use Realtor math to accelerate bankruptcy.
Wonder if these “experts” are actually REALTORS in disguise
Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Mortgage Crime Permeates California
https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/
Multi million dollar properties in a handful of Sydney’s most affluent neighbourhoods are experiencing the fastest price falls in the nation, falling twice as fast as less well wealthy suburbs.
Gosh, in such an environment, it seems like a lot of speculator and FB “wealth” would be getting vaporized.
“But other experts disagree, urging people to hold on to their properties in the falling market, or even snap up more. ‘Every percentage drop makes the market more affordable,’ said Property Buyer chief executive Rich Harvey.”
Hmmmm…I think Rich has some vested interest on people buying more properties. And I wouldn’t call him an expert though. That’s like me asking an “expert” used car saleman if I need to buy a car or keep my old one. We all know what the expert’s advice will be.
How does the saying go? Never ask a barber if he thinks you need a haircut.
‘Every percentage drop
makes the market more affordable,wipes out millions of dollars in FB home equity wealth…’Fixed it!
Realtors are liars
The National Association of Realtors is a criminal organization.
Sydney Median Income is about $60K. Median House Price (1,111,124) in 2017.
5% discount = more affordable? Can someone making 60k afford $1,050,000?
This housing bubble burst is just in the first pitch of the first inning of a long 9 innings game. The problem isnt the crash, it was the boom that causes housing prices to skyrocket to the moon. That’s the problem. The crash is the solution but there will be alot of speculators (both domestic and international) burn. Crash hasn’t even started yet! Lets hope Rich isnt one of these speculators (aka. FB, Bagholders) HiHiHi
Not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning…
This housing bubble burst is just in the first pitch of the first inning of a long 9 innings game.
But to be fair it is the second game of a double header. Some of us have been eating popcorn and drinking beer for quite a while already. Could get pretty rowdy pretty quickly after that last one was suspiciously called for rain while the home team had the bases loaded.
Some of us have been eating popcorn and drinking beer for quite a while already.
$ome others of us are $pectating whil$t $ampling whine$ …
“A property in Point Piper, the home of Australia’s most former prime minister, could be falling by upwards of $1.2 million a year, or $23,000 a week, when looking at the suburb’s median house price of $15 million.”
That’s a pity. BTW, my rent has remained constant since 2014. Aren’t you happy for me, FBs?
I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.
Even the Olick chick agrees:
It’s Better To Rent Than To Buy In Today’s Housing Market
CNBC
9/5/2018
Diana Olick
“It is easily the question most asked by anyone moving into their first home or downsizing into retirement. Should I buy or should I rent?”
“For nearly a decade the answer has been buy. The crash in home prices, combined with record-low mortgage rates made buying and owning a home both cheaper than renting one and a better investment.”
“Now, the tide has turned.”
“Fast-rising home prices and higher mortgage rates have shifted the calculation to rent. The monthly costs of buying and owning a home that you occupy are up 14 percent over the past year, more than three times the annual increase in rent rates nationally, according to realtor.com. Rents are up just 4 percent. The number of local housing markets where it is cheaper to rent than buy is growing by the day. Buying a home was cheaper than renting in just 35 percent of the nation’s counties.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/its-better-to-rent-than-to-buy-in-todays-housing-market.html
My rent has only gone up $50 in 10 YEARS.
And Sydney is a mess to drive in. It sucked 20 years ago and the last time I went in 2016 it was a good way to lose one’s mind. It is or was one of the most beautiful cities I’ve been to with an amazing harbor and generally great weather.
‘My rent has only gone up $50 in 10 YEARS.’
Now THAT’S winning! Well done.
falling by upwards of $1.2 million a year, or $23,000 a week.
I agree. I really can’t comprehend that. Just amazing
MSM by years:
2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016: Isn’t housing appreciation awesome? Buy buy buy!!!!
2017, 2018: Housing is the worst investment ever. You’d have to be crazy to buy now.
Gee I wonder why the sudden change in sentiment in 2017 by the MSM?
Yes but the MSM while trying to hurt Trump is actually helping him. While an economy built around consumption is helped by higher house prices and the related debt, an economy built around production is helped by increasing mobility of workers which is facilitated by lower prices. Even more important in this hot economy, freeing up workers from the housing sector, means more workers to build pipelines and work in the steel industry making pipe etc. the globalists want consumption spending in the US and production in the rest of the world. Trump wants the opposite. Hence what we read in the NYT. Keeping him from signing tarriff authorizations is not saving the Republic it is saving globalization.
Trump derangement syndrome victim alert!
No, I had not read any of your TDS posts.
I read many of yours, though the rampant proliferation of them makes it hard to keep up.
Dan, the Tesla model 3 outsold all BMW passenger cars in August in the US. That is truly astounding. Tesla is the most American-made car by far, at virtually 100%, not like the 62.5% required now. Even Trump wanting to up NAFTA cars to 85% NAFTA components won’t result in US built cars being near as “American-made” as Teslas already are. That is making America great again.
Considering that EVs like Tesla are going to far outlast standard ICE cars, what do you think that does to gasoline demand over time as the EV truly ramps? Mercedes-Benz just announced that they are going “all-in” for EVs investing $12 billion and a partnering with other automakers for the Ionity charging network in Europe. Bottom line: we should be looking beyond pipelines for carbon-based fuel.
I am not seeing the ramp up on the Bloomberg tracker. A few weeks ago I saw 6000 plus a week now back down in the low 4s. Do not know if it is a production problem or worse a demand problem. You and I agree that ICE vehicles will and need to be replaced. However when that will occur we disagree. Unless there is either a breakthrough in battery technology or fuel cell technology I see ICE production staying strong for decades. Meanwhile we will see 100 million barrels per day demand this year and we are running out of oil. We have seen peak conventional oil production and we will see peak combined oil production soon. Unconventional oil production will have to increase and it is all expensive oil and requires a lot of energy to produce
With a globe full of oil, year over year demand plummeting and more oil formed every day, were a long way from running out.
Prediction$, like Building refinerie$, is ea$y!
1,900 (-86) = 1,814 more needed to be built in the next 24 months … Go dog, go!
Cheney unveil$ energy policy
Aim is to build more plant$, find more fuel
Tuesday, May 01, 2001
By Ann McFeatters, Post-Gazette Washington Bureau
Cheney said the nation must build as many a 1,900 new power plant$ over the next 20 years to keep abrea$t of new demand. He said the White Hou$e, Congre$$ and indu$try must work together to avoid major $hortage$.
If the open house looks like a cocktail party, don’t buy. You want to be the only offer in a month.
Why buy at all? Rent it for half the monthly cost. Buy later after prices crater for 75% less.
Ebola!
Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As DC/NoVA Rental Rates Plunge
https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/
In bellevue wa. I’ve been going to open houses for two years. In the last six months the attitude is changed. Attendance is down. But more importantly is the next part.
Open houses aren’t hosted by the listing agent. They are hosted by agents who are looking for buyers who are unattached. I was never really hassled by these women, even though I was a buyer looking for a house in the neighborhood. This changed in spring 2018. The agents started hassling me, would I consider working with them, would I sign my name and number in their book, etc. I have drawn the conclusion that there is insufficient work for them, they’re hungry, so they’re bugging me more.
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Tech Layoffs Ravage Bay Area
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Three month U.S Treasury yield …
https://goo.gl/images/udfuY7
Cr8er.
https://www.coinbase.com/charts
I took my tax cut to walmart.
Many are. Hence the 4 percent plus growth
“Buyers’ fear of being left out is waning as real estate sales in the Vancouver region decline to a six-year low while prices for various housing types weaken during a summer slump.”
It sounds like FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) has given way to FONGO (Fear of Never Getting Out).
“It marks the lowest number of sales for August since 2012, with total transactions down 25.2 per cent compared with the 10-year average for the month.”
Comparing a one-month sales tally to a ten year average that includes most of The Great Recession (2007-2009) and its long tail is a good way to hide the magnitude of the decline. Does anyone know how far below the recent Housing Bubble 2.0 peak the current August sales tally for Vancouver is? I’m guessing it’s off by a lot more than 25 percent.
“Mr. Saretsky notes that the price for detached houses sold within the City of Vancouver averaged $2,493,952 in August, down 19 per cent from the record high of $3,080,907 in April, 2016 – four months before the introduction of the foreign-buyers tax in the Vancouver area.”
It’s kind of amazing that prices are only off by 19 percent, if foreign speculators have morphed into foreign sellers since April 2016. But the price declines are likely to increase if the Fed continues to normalize interest rates, due to cross-borrder spillover effects on Canada’s lending rates.
Over two years since the law and prices are probably only back to where they were in April of 2015. It shows just how sticky prices can be.
No, it just shows there were plenty local knife catchers (aka speculators). Once the bottom falls out, these speculators will be heading for the exit too and then the fun only really begins. Remember the median income in Vancouver is only $70k. 70k can’t afford 2.5 millions, even with a discount from 3.1 millions. They’re SCHLONGED!
Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Housing Train Wreck Spreads
https://www.zillow.com/rose-city-park-portland-or/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Mr. Banker, can you please use your connections to find out more about this vacant “women’s underwear trader” position? I’m asking for a friend.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/womens-underwear-trader-ing-busted-eu150-million-money-laundering
Perhaps this will be of help to your friend …
“Sell Used Panties”
“Selling your used panties is one way to make easy money. The market is ripe with eager customers and the panty seller has plenty of room to set her price point. Some used panty collections have sold for $200 and up. To make fast money and eliminate the need to launder your underwear, sell your used panties one at a time or in a week’s worth seven-day bundle. So just how do women sell their used panties? Take a look at some of the most popular ways to make a buck.
“Sell Used Panties with Pantydeal
“The art of selling used panties to total strangers requires some wisdom and discretion. If you would like to branch out your sales for some quick cash, try an the classifieds of pantydeal here to market your pantie products. Before you jump in there and hock your first bunch of panties, be sure to follow a few simple guidelines to keep your identity safe from a predator.
“When advertising your panties online, be sure to use a post office box to receive your checks or money orders. If you plan to accept only online payments, your classified ad should refer your client to your website. If you feel the need to keep a safe distance from your used panties customers, place your online advertising far away from where you live. For example, a New York used pantie seller may wish to sell her wares via west coast online advertising to ensure a safe and sane transaction. Finally, it is good common sense to never disclose your name. This measure of security must be strictly followed and you should refrain from using transaction services, such as PayPal, that will identify your account holder’s name.
“Who Buys Women’s Used Panties?
“The sniffing used panties trend had small beginnings some twenty years ago in Japan, however men from all over the world are participating in the used pantie trade. Males and females have a different scent that only the opposite gender is keen to pick up on. Men who purchase used panties get an erotic thrill when they sniff the underwear, very much like some males enjoy sniffing women’s shoes. The number of men who enjoy sniffing a woman’s panties will never be known as fact. However, many talkative males have come forward and disclosed that they are naturally aroused by the scent of used women’s underwear and they suspect that most other men will not admit it.
“Both selling and buying used panties is perfectly legal as long as the transaction is fair and equitable. In most cases, the used pantie customer is not a social deviant or one to be judged by a lower standard. Your customers will include male professionals, blue collar workers, retired gentlemen and college students. Many men enjoy the scent of a woman who does not wear perfume or cover her natural aroma with fragrant hair products. The used panties for sale are merely an extension of this desire to take a whiff of the female scent.”
https://pantydeal.com/pages/sell-used-panties
Sometimes in here I learn things I wish I could unlearn.
Mr Banker I have to admit you are always sniffing out opportunities. Now you have to tell your realtor friends that their clients can qualify for that house if they are just willing to rent rooms on Airbnb, drive Uber, sell blood, and sell their used panties.
I am the friend.
Do they use naked shorts?
“Housing prices in Australia’s top cities have been steadily falling for months now, and it appears there is no end in sight. Multi million dollar properties in a handful of Sydney’s most affluent neighbourhoods are experiencing the fastest price falls in the nation, falling twice as fast as less well wealthy suburbs. Overall property value in these suburbs is sliding at a rate of eight per cent annually, in comparison to the average of four per cent in properties in lower socio-economic areas, an analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley shows.”
Any thoughts on how long it will take for this highly contagious strain of ebola to reach California shores?
“… $23,000 a week, when looking at the suburb’s median house price of $15 million.”
The poor HODLers!
Why would any knife catcher buy a house that’s shedding that kind of value each week?
A question realtors better be asking themselves in every “outlier” real estate market.
‘Every percentage drop
makes the market more affordable,generates millions of dollars in losses for the poor suckers who recently bought’Fixed it!
Try not to catch yourself a falling 🔪.
‘A better time to sell would have been a year ago, but I think there is still more to come.’
There’s never been a better time to sell…than last year.
Looks like cryptocurrencies are leading the implosion on the Everything Bubble.
Die, scam currencies, die.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-crash-cryptocurrency-market-value-ethereum-ripple-eos-cash-a8523761.html
Hurry up and buy the dip before the price rockets up to $50,000 per Bitcoin!
“Ethereum, bitcoin cash and ripple all lose a tenth of their value in less than an hour amid market turmoil”
February 4, 2010
Catastrophic Negative Equity In The House
The Daily Herald in Illinois. “Officials at the Northern Illinois Food Bank say the increase in the number of people in the region needing food assistance is ‘exploding,’ and the recession is to blame. Lake Villa Township Supervisor Dan Venturi said he can sometimes spot the first-timers by their cars.”
“‘Someone may drive in with a Lexus. These are people who have lost good jobs and their circumstances have changed,’ Venturi said. ‘They were otherwise affluent before the economy turned.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5865
“‘Someone may drive in with a Lexus. These are people who have lost good jobs and their circumstances have changed,’ Venturi said. ‘They were otherwise affluent before the economy turned.’”
A good many Lexus drivers aren’t “affluent.” They’re debt donkeys living beyond their means.
Big difference.
That one is littered with Lola excrement.