The Slowdown Is Really Related To Prices
A report from the World Property Journal on Nevada. “According to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, after climbing steadily since 2012, local Las Vegas home prices have been hovering this summer through August 2018, are maintaining the same home prices as they were back in May 2018. ‘Our housing market has been cooling off a bit this summer. I wouldn’t say we’ve shifted from a seller’s market to one favoring buyers, but we’re starting to see the scales tilt more in that direction,’ said GLVAR President Chris Bishop. ‘Home prices and sales are starting to soften around the country. Most experts, including NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, have been predicting slower appreciation and more inventory heading into 2019.’”
“Bishop said the housing supply increased in August. By the end of August, GLVAR reported 5,818 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up from July and up 12.8 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,184 properties listed without offers in August represented a 73.4 percent increase from one year ago. The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during August was 3,881. Compared to one year ago, August sales were down 6.4 percent for homes.”
The Associated Press. “A slowdown in U.S. home sales is weighing on homebuilder stocks. Most of the builders are down more than 15 percent this year. Builder shares were already having a rough year as investors worried that rising mortgage rates could dampen sales. Those jitters appear to have been well-founded. A recent batch of weak housing data suggest the housing market is losing momentum. ‘The slowdown in activity is really related to prices,’ said BTIG homebuilding analyst Carl Reichardt.”
“Sales of new U.S. homes slumped 1.7 percent in July, the second straight monthly decline. Sales of previously occupied homes have fallen four months in a row. Builders have been aggressively raising prices for several quarters amid increased costs for lumber, steel and other building materials. The industry has also been grappling with escalating cost for labor and land. The average sales price of a new home climbed 5.8 percent in July from a year earlier to $394,300.”
“‘The consumer is resisting that to some degree,’ Reichardt said.”
There’s a table of the crater on the last link. Hovnanian 53%? Ouch. And William Lyon 33%!
Stock price: WLH (NYSE) $18.67 -0.66 (-3.41%)
Headquarters: Newport Beach, CA
Oh dear…
Follow the money, they always say. And clearly the money is leaving home builders.
‘Our housing market has been cooling off a bit this summer. I wouldn’t say we’ve shifted from a seller’s market to one favoring buyers, but we’re starting to see the scales tilt more in that direction’
Viva Eeee-bola!
GLVAR reported that the median price for existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during August was $295,000, matching the median price in May. That’s up 1.7 percent from July and up 13.5 percent from $260,000 in August of 2017. The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in August was $169,950. That’s up 2.4 percent from July and up 23.8 percent from the same time last year.
…
At this rate, Bishop added, “it may be some time before our local home prices surpass their all-time peak, like they have in most markets around the country.” According to GLVAR, the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada peaked at $315,000 in June of 2006. Prices hit a post-recession bottom of $118,000 in January of 2012.
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Lets hope no one overpaid in this environment. I’m sure wages increased nearly 300% so this time is different. The house prices were driven by incomes and not articially suppressed low interest rates or Fed debt-fueled housing bubble…Oh Wait
LV has been propped up, just like last time, by all those idiots flush with borrowed money who think they can beat the house’s odds. Add the CA equity locusts and locals high on recent illusionary stawk mkt wealth looking for outsized gains, and LV, just like so many other west coast areas, is ripe for a massive fall.
I’m in Fremont now (was in Sunnyvale for many years till kids graduated HS and allowed us to move to a cheaper rent area) and have been tracking the Mountain House area near Stockton, ~40mi to the east, for quite awhile.
It’s a ‘master planned community’ of newer houses started around 2003. The story went that things got extremely bubbly, then crashed till 2011 or so with new home construction stopped there till about 2013, when it all started going nuts again. I drove out there a few months ago and 99.9% of model home lookers were Indian or Chinese. Prices are insane, and I’m watching intently for this 75% renter / 25% owner occupied area to crash once again. Thought about moving there once it tanks again, but not convinced I’d survive the drive times there and back, though I’m sure that will decrease again like last time.
Yeesh, I consider Pleasanton/Dublin to be a bad commute. That looks terrible to me. I forget that those last 20 miles might go pretty quickly though. But still…
Yeesh, I consider Pleasanton/Dublin to be a bad commute. That looks terrible to me. I forget that those last 20 miles might go pretty quickly though. But still…
I’m sure that commute IS terrible. I know people that live even farther away in Discovery Bay or Lathrop though.
We’re barely surviving in the ‘real bay area’ on a ~120k/yr income. The ability to actually save some/most of a paycheck has some mighty fine benefits. If MH prices get back down to ~$250k I would have no problem braving the traffic in and out. I’d leave early like many people do anyway, and actually have cash for a vacation!
We’re barely surviving in the ‘real bay area’ on a ~120k/yr income.
I feel your pain. I was able to move to Folsom within walking distance of work and keep my San Jose salary, so I took it.
Folsom is IMO the best of the valley. I have family up there. It’s close to Tahoe, easy commute around town, clean, nice fun downtown area, people seem pretty nice, Folsom lake, and best of all not over ran by homeless zombies. If it didnt get so damn hot there I would definitely consider moving, mabye I will after this market does its thing.
“We’re barely surviving in the ‘real bay area’ on a ~120k/yr income.”
Wow, and you indicated HS kids (clothes, iPhones, etc.). I have friends in San Jose in the Almaden Valley who combined are hauling in around $200k/yr, and they’re not living the life by any means. I always buy the pizza when I visit.
If it didnt get so damn hot there I would definitely consider moving
I don’t enjoy a lot of heat and sweating in general, having grown up in Wyoming. But my step daughter basically lives at the pool and I noticed that if you’re at the pool or on the lake a lot triple digit temps are a lot less annoying.
Wow, and you indicated HS kids (clothes, iPhones, etc.). I have friends in San Jose in the Almaden Valley who combined are hauling in around $200k/yr, and they’re not living the life by any means. I always buy the pizza when I visit.
Post-HS kids now, both in ‘communist’ college. Sounds about right with Almaden area. Along with the cost of living with rent, food, gas, just include the idiotic income and sales taxes with everything, AND the traffic, and it’s no wonder so many people are leaving this area. Rumblings my company may move to Boise area at some point. I’d go there in a heartbeat.
Arlington VA Housing Prices Crater 7%YOY As Depreciation And Falling Prices Trash Seller Plans
https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
For condos and townhomes, the 1,184 properties listed without offers in August represented a 73.4 percent increase from one year ago.
Oh dear. Looks like lots of greedhead sellers will be wrestling with some very difficult decisions.
It looks like the bubble burst in spring of 2018 and everyone is trying to bail out before it blows up. It’s too LATE now
Dont worry. The median income of $58K should support $295k house price…that’s what my realtors told me.
Date US Las Vegas
2015 $56,480 $52,203
2014 $54,398 $51,921
2013 $53,838 $52,609
2012 $53,701 $51,793
House prices went from 118K in 2012 to 295K in 2018 but income only increase by 7K. There’s no bubble here said my realtor.
That’s the core of the reasons this current run is running out of steam. Housing in boring areas becoming a luxury of the upper-middle class due to rising income inequality in world flush with rent-seeking money.
Builders have been aggressively raising prices for several quarters amid increased costs for lumber, steel and other building materials. The industry has also been grappling with escalating cost for labor and land.
Developers overpay for land, hire illegals and fly-by-night contractors to throw up shoddily-constructed shacks, price in a hefty premium for corporate, then expect buyers to pay through the nose.
Homey don’t play dat.
I ran across this and, well, I just had to post it …
“Crater, California”
“Crater is an unincorporated community in Inyo County, California. It is located in the Last Chance Range …”
Last Chance Range 😁
“… 19 miles (31 km) northwest of Ubehebe Crater, at an elevation of 5305 feet (1617 m).”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crater,_California
I’ve been there, LOL. And there isn’t much there.
Has-been celebrities who make bad financial decisions, like Mary Ann from “Gilligans Island,” can always ask fans for money when their “investments” go south.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gilligans-island-star-shares-a-cautionary-financial-tale-2018-09-06
Why doesn’t Thurston Howell bail her out?
It’s better to rent than to buy in today’s housing market
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/its-better-to-rent-than-to-buy-in-todays-housing-market.html
Pleasanton, CA Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Years Of Subprime Lending Begins Failing
https://www.movoto.com/pleasanton-ca/market-trends/
“Cape Coral Realtor Arrested On Sexual Battery Charges”
https://www.winknews.com/2018/08/31/cape-coral-realtor-arrested-on-sexual-battery-charges/
Break out tiny violins for woman facing drug raps
AUGUST 30–An accused drug dealer who allegedly paid her rent in narcotics lamented to police upon her arrest that “selling methamphetamine is hard work,” according to a search warrant affidavit.
http://thesmokinggun.com/documents/stupid/selling-meth-is-hard-work-294730
Oligarchs gotta oligarch.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/2162997/chinese-student-18-lives-us65m-london-flat-how-parents-hers-are
Launderers gonna launder.
Another example of bad journalism failing to refute Realtorbabble:
“Over the past four years, we’ve experienced the strongest sellers’ market in recorded history,” said Denver REALTOR Chairman Steve Danyliw in a press release. “This past month, we saw available homes for sale increase to the highest level in four years giving buyers more homes to choose from.”
Still, Danyliw says market conditions favor the home seller and the next few months should see increased activity.”
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/report-denver-housing-inventory-rises-to-highest-level-in-4-years
Increased activity of what? Foreclosures? Ramen sales?
The biggest increased activity you can expect is:
Realtors lying.
The biggest increased activity you can expect is:
Realtors lying.
LOL, truth!
I have a buddy that just got into used house sales less than a year ago and he swears we’re not in a bubble, and that everything is wonderful.
With all debt types at all-time highs, and the bad news just now starting to come out on all fronts, the vicious cycle is definitely beginning. This sucker is indeed going down.
The first thing they tell you at the “1hr and $150” course to become a realtor is: “It’s not a lie if you believe it’s true”
Ben, I just found this site about two months ago, and I love it. You have some great content, but my favorite part is reading the comments everyday.
Get the Joshua Tree extension and it’s even better.
I totally agree though. The articles may give some insight if you can get past the realtwhore lies and propaganda, but the comments provide the best overall sense of what’s happening.