September 6, 2018

The Red-Hot Market Is Taking A Breather

A report from the Democrat and Chronicle in New York. “The 1,424-square-foot, two-story Colonial is in picture-perfect condition. In the heart of the popular North Winton Village neighborhood, the home at 15 Wisconsin St. has been floating on the market, now reduced to $137,900 from $140,000, without an accepted offer. ‘If it were spring it would have 10 to 15 offers in the first two days,’ said Davide Salafia, the listing agent who with his brother Sal also flipped the home for resale. ‘The pulse is not there.’”

“Welcome to the fall real estate market in Rochester. The red-hot market earlier this year is taking a breather. Real estate professionals attribute it to a seasonal slowdown. ‘We’re seeing a shift in the market,’ said Angie Flack Brown of Keller Williams.”

“The multiple-offer situations just are not as common anymore, Brown said. Buyers are more prudent and carefully thinking things over and not rushing into a bidding war, she said. What does this mean if you’re a buyer or a seller in the current market? For the buyer, you have more of an advantage than spring, and for the seller, homes may need to be priced accordingly and not based on market highs.”

“The Greater Rochester Association of Realtors reported an increase in new listings in the second quarter of the year compared to the same time in 2017 for the following counties: Yates (+11.9 percent), Ontario (+11 percent), Allegany (+10.1 percent), Genesee (+9.2 percent), Steuben (+6.8 percent), Orleans (+5.6 percent), Monroe (+0.6 percent), and Wyoming (+0.6 percent).”

“The Monroe County region traditionally sees a slowdown in July and August as people go on vacations, but the market has been strong later into the summer in recent years due to lack of inventory, Salafia said. Salafia noted this is a seasonal cooldown and not indicative of the long-term market, which he expects to heat up again early spring. That means buyers will not have to be rushed into making a decision with fewer buyers in the marketplace.”

“‘It’s truly the perfect time for the buyer that missed out in spring,’ Salafia said.”

The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Colorado Springs-area homebuilding fell last month for the first time in a little more than a year, but remains ahead of last year’s pace and still appears on track to reach a 13-year high, one industry expert said. Permits issued by the Pikes Peak Regional Building Department for the construction of single-family homes totaled 298 in August, a 10.2 percent drop from the same month last year, a Regional Building report shows. It was the first year-over-year decline in single-family permits since June 2017.”

“Even so, the drop likely is a one-month downturn in an otherwise strong year in which building permits should top 4,000, said Mike DeGrant, board president of the Housing & Building Association of Colorado Springs and a vice president with Springs developer Schuck Communities. Through the first eight months of 2018, single-family permits totaled 2,798, a 17.4 percent increase over the same period last year. If permits exceed 4,000 for the year, it would be the highest total since a record 5,314 were issued in 2005.”

“‘I think that’s a minor blip on the radar,’ DeGrant said of the August building permit total. ‘The market is still there,’ DeGrant said. ‘If we could continue on with lot development and (regulatory) approvals and availability, I don’t think we would have seen that blip at all.’”

The San Diego Reader in California. “Villa Hermosa, a nearly-century-old mansion overlooking Mission Valley from atop the northerly bluffs of Mission Hills, offers a look at what constituted the pinnacle of design standard in the days preceding the onset of the Great Depression. Villa Hermosa has been in search of a buyer since mid-2017, when the property initially commanded an asking price of $2.8 million. That price had been reduced to $2,495,000 by July, when the property briefly entered escrow. That transaction appears to have been cancelled, and the property was offered back up for sale in mid-August with a price reduction to $2,350,000.”




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52 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-06 15:48:24

‘Through the first eight months of 2018, single-family permits totaled 2,798, a 17.4 percent increase over the same period last year. If permits exceed 4,000 for the year, it would be the highest total since a record 5,314 were issued in 2005′

Didn’t we used to have a poster who insisted, “I don’t see them building thousands of shacks like the good old days”? When I was up there a few years ago they were building on everything in sight way out into the country.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-06 15:49:48

‘If it were spring it would have 10 to 15 offers in the first two days,’ said Davide Salafia, the listing agent who with his brother Sal also flipped the home for resale. ‘The pulse is not there.’

Welcome to Eeee-bola, flippers Davide and Sal!

Comment by qt
2018-09-06 15:56:25

Lets hope these two idiot flippers were part of the bidding wars and won some of them too hihihih :-)

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-09-06 16:08:40

‘The pul$e is not there.’

Is it true that folk$ with EEE.bola$ have a pul$e, up until the exact moment in whinch they doe$n’t?

$ounds, flippin’ me$$y.

 
Comment by Tim
2018-09-07 04:23:15

Who would buy a flipped property? Their motivation is always to hide any major flaws, do a few cosmetic changes as cheaply as possible, cut corners and make sure they buyer is getting as screwed as possible. I wouldn’t even view them. Also, if you look at the Zestimate history under the Home Value tab, you can see that prices having been falling rapidly in Rochester since the beginning of the year. So much for the Spring theory. It doesn’t even seem like they truly believe it themselves since the bought the property in the Spring and listed at the end of Summer which, according to their own theory, would be foolish. Given that one of the flippers is a realtor, this challenges the whole “Realtors are Liars” theory in that it suggests perhaps, instead, they are just really, really stupid.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-Wisconsin-St-Rochester-NY-14609/30877079_zpid/

 
Comment by oxide
2018-09-07 06:37:29

The surrounding neighborhood has

369 for sale
247 foreclosed or pre-foreclosure
325 for rent

That’s a lot of housing for rent! My guess is lots of people are moving away from the Rochester but renting the properties so they don’t take a loss of the sale.

 
Comment by Avg Joe
2018-09-07 07:37:38

Rochester is the quintessential declining upstate NY city.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-09-07 07:46:39

Rochester decline already happened. NYC and Boston are in the beginning stages of decline.

 
 
 
Comment by qt
2018-09-06 15:53:23

“‘It’s truly the perfect time for the buyer that missed out in spring,’ Salafia said.”

- NOW is the BEST time to buy said every realtors!

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 16:19:12

Now is the perfect time to sit on the sidelines and watch a bursting housing bubble.

Imagine buying a house last Spring, and then when Housing Bubble 2.0 craters, suddenly finding yourself not only underwater, but living in a neighborhood riddled with foreclosures, rentals, and vacant neglected shacks.

Deep joy.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 16:13:07

Real estate professionals attribute it to a seasonal slowdown.

And what season would that be, RE professionals? Because it looks to me like the Schlonging Season has arrived in all of its terrible glory.

Comment by azdude
2018-09-06 16:43:37

u r a debbie downer. long live the bull!

Comment by Boo Randy
Comment by jeff
2018-09-06 18:42:08

SNL on youtube. now that’s Deep State approved.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 18:51:32

Whoa… I always thought Debbie Downer was a REIC strawman. I had no clue she was a real person!

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 18:42:30

A four decade high in this stock-market bear indicator is a great contrarian buy signal, as everyone can plainly see the stock market always goes up.

A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Sept 6, 2018 6:18 p.m. ET

Goldman’s bull-bear indicator is flashing red.

The report comes as stocks extend losses on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 sinking as weak technology stocks weigh on the broader market.

A gauge of bullish and bearish momentum in the U.S. stock market is ringing alarms for strategists at Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank’s so-called bull-bear indicator, which examines five market factors, indicates that the likelihood of a bear market occurring is at its highest point since around the mid-1970s (see chart below).

Goldman analysts led by Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equities strategist, said an unusual period for Wall Street, characterized by loose monetary policy and a recent spate of fiscal stimulus has resulted in an uncannily bullish cycle for markets that is likely to come to a screeching halt.

However, the upshot of the 54-page Goldman report dated Sept. 4 isn’t that investors should panic and head for the hills, but rather that a period of lower returns should be anticipated (see chat below).

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 18:58:31

A gauge of bullish and bearish momentum in the U.S. stock market is ringing alarms for strategists…

Seems reminiscent of the Titanic Prosperous Voyage indicator:

“Iceberg dead ahead!”

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 19:08:44

Don’t let the scary chart showing that every previous time this indicator reached a comparable level, the US stock market entered a protracted selloff, most often accompanied by a recession, shake your resolve to buy stocks and houses and get ever wealthier as you sit back and watch their prices rise.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 19:22:50

Here’s another contrarian buy signal: The Financial Times of London, which normally roundly ignores happenings across the Pond, is taking note of the tech stock meltdown. Buy the dip now, before everyone realizes the market is oversold and piles their YellenBux back in!

The Wall Street Report Micron
Tech stock sell-off accelerates as chipmakers fall
Micron drops nearly 10% after analyst warns of oversupply of Nand flash memory chips
Peter Wells and Nicole Bullock in New York 5 hours ago

Tech stocks helped drive Wall Street’s third straight day of declines on Thursday as chipmakers sold off on growth concerns.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9 per cent to 7,922.73, approaching its 50-day moving average of 7,817.29 — a key momentum level. The technology benchmark’s 1.2 per cent drop the pervious (SIC) day was its biggest one-day drop since mid-August.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index lost 2.7 per cent as Micron Technology fell 9.9 per cent to $44.65 and KLA-Tencor was off 9.7 per cent, while Applied Materials declined 5.3 per cent and Advanced Micro Devices lost 2.4 per cent.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-06 19:25:42
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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-09-06 21:38:12

That’s quite a convoluted corporate history. What do you see in the CompuServe saga that seems relevant to the current tech stock meltdown?

 
 
Comment by Equity Locust
2018-09-06 19:43:16

Whoa there went Boise!

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Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-09-06 23:09:37

Been tracking higher end PC SSDs and just in the last few weeks have seen some notable price reductions.

Chip gluts and shortages have happened before. I guess someone needs to set fire to a chip plant to prop the prices up again…

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Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-09-06 17:20:18

Seasonal slowdown sounds a lot better than a RE crash. I still can’t wrap my head around the article posted where the realtor says the summer slump was due to all the buyers going on vacation. I’ll give them realturds an “A” for the creative excuses they pull out of there arses

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 16:15:55

“‘I think that’s a minor blip on the radar,’ DeGrant said of the August building permit total. ‘The market is still there,’ DeGrant said. ‘If we could continue on with lot development and (regulatory) approvals and availability, I don’t think we would have seen that blip at all.’”

The iceberg that sunk the Titanic was probably a minor blip on their sonar.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-09-07 08:53:16

The iceberg that sunk the Titanic was probably a minor blip on their sonar.

When you’re unsinkable, even hitting it is just a minor blip. The major change is when you realize you’re not unsinkable. That comes later.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-09-06 16:18:05

” …offers a look at what con$tituted the pinnacle of de$ign $tandard in the day$ preceding the on$et of the Great Depre$$ion.”

$illy, the Great Depre$$ion, changed neither the de$ign, nor, the view$.

$till, it might have changed the de$igns & view$ of the owner$ $tanding on the balconie$.

($peculation$ on my part, actually eye haven’t any clue$ to that a$$ertion!)

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 17:13:28

Will “capsule housing” be the next innovation in low-income shelter for the proles?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/capsule-housing-project-sparks-outrage-spain-184804051.html

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-09-06 17:27:23

Repost of some Realtor lies from the last thread:

“Over the past four years, we’ve experienced the strongest sellers’ market in recorded history,” said Denver REALTOR Chairman Steve Danyliw in a press release. “This past month, we saw available homes for sale increase to the highest level in four years giving buyers more homes to choose from.”

Still, Danyliw says market conditions favor the home seller and the next few months should see increased activity.”

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/report-denver-housing-inventory-rises-to-highest-level-in-4-years

“Buy a used house in Denver today and you will be hundreds of thousands of dollars underwater” — said no Realtor ever.

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-06 17:31:41

North Palm Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As North To South Retiree Trend Ends

https://www.movoto.com/north-palm-beach-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 17:56:55

All the creative financing schemes “investors” used to build their pet bubble projects are going to come back to haunt them as true price discovery reasserts itself.

A decision by buyers of The Center to use bonds to finance the US$5.2 billion deal could backfire

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2163133/souring-sentiment-snares-buyers-worlds-costliest-office-tower

Four months ago, when a consortium of 10 wealthy investors settled on a financing deal by selling two tranches of 18-month bonds to raise the funds to close the HK$40.2 billion (US$5.2 billion) purchase of the world’s most expensive office tower, they felt they were sitting pretty.

They believed the innovative funding method they chose, bypassing Hong Kong’s commercial bank lending restrictions, would give them enough time to refinance, or resell some floors of the 73-storey office tower, The Center in Hong Kong’s business district, and it would deliver a chunky profit.

However, it has not worked out quite as they hoped. The dark clouds of the US-China trade war, interest rate rises and falling stock markets have combined to harm overall investor sentiment. For these investors who are bearing high interest rates through the bond issue, they are under mounting pressure to sell.

“The market is a bit down. Fast action to sell is a wise choice,” said James Mak, district sales director at property broker Midland Commercial.

 
Comment by hunkydory
2018-09-06 18:18:58

Yo Ben, your San Diego reader link is busted. Used to live in Mission Hills in a previous life and wanted to see what house it was. That is one of the finest hoods in all of SD IMO

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-06 18:30:12

Thanks for letting me know, I fixed it. It’s a heck of a shack:

‘In 1933, the home, consisting of six bedrooms, four-and-a-half baths, and nearly 4300 square feet of living space, received an “outstanding house front” award from the American Institute of Architects’ San Diego chapter.’

‘The house sits on 2.66 acres of “park like grounds,” and its hilltop location affords it “scenic views spanning from east to west from the stadium to the ocean.” The property features “multiple level terraced gardens, private lookouts, walking paths, a meditation garden and an Italian marble gazebo.’

“The ocean breezes and the presence of a majestic pine tree create a micro climate that makes the property cool even on the hottest of days.”

And they took a half a million off!

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-09-06 18:33:45

Eye’m sailin’ there this weekend, all tho$e Mi$$ion hill$ folk$ can … “Look$.down.on.me!” … $ixto @ Humphrey$.on.thee.bay …

Comment by jeff
2018-09-07 05:59:48

“Eye’m sailin’ there this weekend,”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNnjQwEwjbg

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-06 19:02:41

Tarzana, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As More Defective Appraisals Surface

https://www.zillow.com/tarzana-los-angeles-ca/home-values/

*Select price from drop-down menu on first chart

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 20:11:16

The hits keep coming for Australian FBs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-06/australias-big-banks-raise-mortgage-rates-sparking-housing-market-fears

Australia’s Big Banks Raise Mortgage Rates, Sparking Housing Market Fears

For decades, the housing market in Australia - which has not seen a recession in 27 years - appeared immune to any external or internal shocks, as prices kept rising gingerly year after year. That all changed in the past year, when according to Core Logic, home prices across Australia’s 5 top cities peaked in October of 2017 and have since declined by 3.5% on average.

That decline is now set to accelerate because overnight, two of Australia’s biggest banks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, announced within minutes of each other that they are raising mortgage rates citing higher funding costs, cutting chances of an official rate hike and risking a political backlash.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-06 20:34:24

Wall Street vulture firms used their free FedBux gambling money to buy up the distressed assets of the proles following the 2008 Great Financial Crash, then turned around and rented them out at jacked-up rates. Of course, being grifters, they were also sh*tty landlords with a business model of screwing over their tenants, so not surprisingly they’re getting sued. I hope this ends up with a jury that knows first-hand how rapacious and predatory these Wall Street scum are, and slams them with huge punitive damages.

http://rentalhousingjournal.com/articles/2018/08/21/big-wall-street-landlords-sued-tenants?utm_source=Master+Investor%2FOwner%2FProp+Mngr%2FSocial&utm_campaign=b7d684b2cb-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_29_02_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1df36dfca7-b7d684b2cb-113696977

The largest owner and landlord of single-family rental homes in the United States is fighting a class-action lawsuit filed in California that alleges illegal and overly punitive late fees in Arizona, Oregon, California, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Texas and five other states in which it operates.

Invitation Homes, which owns nearly 7,500 properties in Arizona and more than 82,500 properties nationwide, is one of a group of real-estate investment companies that went public and, plaintiffs say, have allowed stockholder demands to unfairly affect how the companies are run. The growth of Wall-Street-owned single-family landlords came after the 2008 financial crisis, when equity companies and institutional investors bought foreclosed homes in bulk.

The plaintiff in the class-action lawsuit is Jose Rivera, a tenant in a home owned by Invitation Homes in Sylmar, Calif., a community of about 100,000 in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles County. His lease said that a fee of $95 would be charged if rent was late by even a minute.

Comment by rms
2018-09-07 07:43:09

“Wall Street vulture firms used their free FedBux gambling money to buy up the distressed assets of the proles following the 2008 Great Financial Crash, then turned around and rented them out at jacked-up rates.”

+1 All part of the plan to build a floor under house prices.

 
 
Comment by Sean
2018-09-07 02:41:20

North Winton Village in Rochester isn’t the ‘heart of a popular neighborhood’, it’s just a basic city house with horrible schools. For $137K I could go to many, MANY other places in the Greater Rochester area and get a better place with nicer schools.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-09-07 04:31:15

crushing.housing.losses.

 
Comment by azdude
2018-09-07 04:55:41

do u think the school ratings are just as rigged as the credit rating agencies hand out aaa to dog sh@t?

Comment by rms
2018-09-07 07:45:55

Whoever performs the worst get the most state funding.

 
Comment by Sean
2018-09-07 07:50:41

No, not this neighborhood. The schools really are bad.

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-09-07 05:00:44

Good morning. And remember that:

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-09-07 06:02:09

….and every closing a crime scene.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-09-07 05:51:04

location.location.location

Is it time to walk when the equity dries up? why do they encourage reckless gambling in people’s major asset?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-07 05:57:49

201,000 jobs created in August. This compares to the 109,000 jobs created under Obama. Other interesting point unemployment rate was steady it shows that there are still a lot of people who will work if presented with a decent job

Comment by azdude
2018-09-07 06:11:33

same old fake news.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-07 07:04:23

What is globalist fake news is the narrative that cracking down on illegal immigration and unfair trade will destroy our economy. Now it may destroy Amazon which relies on paying slave labor to distribute Chinese goods but Americans will do just fine.

 
 
Comment by Next Shoe to Drop
2018-09-08 10:12:06

The only comparison is between one set of lies and another. How soon we forget the underlying equations get changed to produce whatever desired effect the PTB want to induce whenever they feel like it.

I’ll be impressed if me and my friends ever see real wages increase to overcome the effect of the Everything Bubble inflating the prices of everything our families need to survive. Till then they can keep their #s to themselves.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-09-07 06:03:11

Official: Woman lit dynamite, thought it was candle; blew off fingers

https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Bridgeport-PD-Something-exploded-in-13211157.php

 
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