We’re Starting To See The Market Slow Down
A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The Dallas-Fort Worth home market retreated in August, with preowned home purchases down from a year ago and prices growing at a slower rate. In June, July and August — traditionally the hottest month for home sales — real estate agents sold slightly fewer houses than they did in the summer of 2017, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.”
“‘I think in general there’s a slowdown, yes, but again not a collapse by any stretch,’ said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center.”
“The number of houses listed for sale with real estate agents in the area was up 15 percent from August 2017 and is now at the highest volume in six years. Most of the increase in homes on the market has come in the higher price ranges. ‘The amount of total inventory has climbed slightly over the past year, but much of this inventory has been in the $300,000 to $500,000 category,’ said Ted Wilson with Dallas housing analyst Residential Strategies.”
“The slowdown in home sales growth this year comes after a long period of record sales and huge home price increases in North Texas. Median home resale prices in the area have risen almost 50 percent in the last five years. ‘I believe this month’s MLS data is an indication of D-FW’s residential real estate market stabilizing,’ said Paige Shipp with housing analyst Metrostudy Inc. ‘The root cause of the stabilization is price. As home prices appreciate, fewer and fewer buyers can afford them,’ she said.”
From Red River Radio. “Steven Powell is an agent for JP & Associates Realtors in Frisco says the region’s housing values traditionally have gone up 2 to 3 percent a year until recently. The last few years North Texas prices HAD been rising around 10 percent a year. But that’s cooling. ‘I think what we’re starting to see right now is the market slow down. It’s getting a little bit more difficult for people to afford the kind of houses they could a couple years ago because houses are starting to sit on the market a little bit longer.’”
“According to Powell, this dynamic isn’t a sign of imminent housing market collapse, but rather that the Northeast Texas real estate market is stabilizing itself.”
‘The number of houses listed for sale with real estate agents in the area was up 15 percent from August 2017 and is now at the highest volume in six years’
It’s Big Deee-bola!
You mean we have the highest inventory since 2012? Didn’t prices shoot up from 2013 about 50% due to “shortage” and low interest rates? I guess those are gone now. Look out below!!!
I know my wife’s cousin moved there last year from OC (SoCAL) to North TX (near Dallas) and brought 4 properties, one for resident and the other 3 for investments. Most of your families think they made it or was successful “owning” 4 properties. Yes, he just got married and brought 4 properties in 2017, near the peak bubble prices!
your = her
He married some girl from Vietnam and I was told her families are Communist officials. Maybe they invested some of the corrupted dirty money there? Soon to be vanish along with money from other FBs!
Where did all these shacks come from?
There are around - and waiting to cash in.
I have a co-worker that is based in DFW. He has a very nice (but small - 1500 sq ft) home near SMU (i.e. where the old money neighbourhoods are located). He was offered something like 25 % over the going rate if he would accept and move out in 3 weeks. He suspects that the buyer will build a 3500 sq ft super up scale house —- and needed to lock in the construction loan
So he took the $s and is renting - about 10 miles away.
Everyone has their price point —- and is willing for someone else to take the risk.
correction on my wording - 25% over the going rate that he bought it at 18 months ago.
That kind of money is more interested in return of capital than return on capital. Back in the home country the money could totally disappear in an instant. Cash deal on a USA house you will get at least half back and maybe more than you put in.
The problem is it’s all borrowed cash.
Ebola!
Arvada, CO Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Rampant Mortgage Fraud Trashes Denver Area
https://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/
‘I think in general there’s a slowdown, yes, but again not a collapse by any stretch’
‘this dynamic isn’t a sign of imminent housing market collapse, but rather that the Northeast Texas real estate market is stabilizing itself’
Sounds kinda spooked.
Since when did people there refer to Northeast Texas?
It’s getting a little bit more difficult for people to afford the kind of houses they could a couple years ago because houses are starting to sit on the market a little bit longer.’”
No, Steven, the tapped-out debt donkeys are balking at paying greedhead wish prices. Overpriced shacks won’t sit “a little bit longer”; they’ll languish unsold while panicked FBs who have to get out from under their alligators start chasing the market down.
“According to Powell, this dynamic isn’t a sign of imminent housing market collapse, but rather that the Northeast Texas real estate market is stabilizing itself.”
Yeah, it’s going to stabilize itself by crashing back to levels where housing is affordable again.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As US Unemployment Rate Reaches Record High
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75219/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Consumer credit hits all-time high as tapped-out debt donkeys max out their credit cards.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-10/us-consumer-credit-hits-all-time-high-credit-card-usage-stalls
Wonder what the event will be to explain the pop? Feel like it will pinned on Trump.
I’m sure they’d like to. But one advantage of everything being crazy from the beginning of the administration is that it’s tough to blame any particular bit of news for the avalanche beginning.
“Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic down 1.2%, Convention Attendance down 5.1% compared to same Period in 2017″
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Parking revenue$ + Ca$ino Video Gaming $hootout$ conte$t$ will carry.the.day!
i was there in July for a company conference — Super hot and miserable. Anyway … and i know summer is slow season.
The bartenders were complaining about the traffic. They claimed that even though there were a lot of people, the customers were only have 2 drinks instead of 3 or 4.
The discretionary spending sometime leads the visitor traffic down.
If visitor traffic slows down, the layoffs will soon follow. And once that happens, housing here will start dropping for real.
BTW, I happened to glance over while driving on I-15 today, and was shocked how much progress they’ve made building the hotel tower for the much-ballyhooed Resorts World on the north Strip. I still wonder if it will ever actually open. And if it does, if it will end up following the same path as the Lucky Dragon.
Anecdotal for the HBB: I just got rear ended in a hit and run in Denver at the intersection of Evans and Broadway.
I called the Denver City Council office and left a message for them that I’m not gonna even bother calling the police, because they voted to make Denver a “sanctuary city” and that this was just an example of the lawlessness that results from that (I live in Arapahoe County, not in Denver, a few blocks south of the Denver City/County line).
Sorry to hear that happened to you. I can relate to this here in California but in other ways like constant thefts that go on daily where the law enforcement tells the victims they are inundated with higher level crimes and to go fill out the online police report that will never get a follow up (I’ve made 3 in the past two years). The criminals get away with 90% of the crimes and when they do actually end up in jail it is for a day or two and they are out doing it again. I propose a 1 strike your out law, I recall we had a 3 but doesn’t seem to be intact as one of the local criminals here has been in and out over 20 times back on the street / your backyard.
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Glut And Defective Appraisals Ravage Bay Area Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
This guy’s on it in the DFW metro. Great assessment. Spot on. Kudos.
https://aaronlayman.com/2018/09/denton-county-home-sales-slide-7-in-august/
A couple of excerpts here:
“Contrary to Mr. Gains assertions that “short supply” is a major headwind to the housing market, the real problem is artificially inflated home prices. Prices are too high, and demand is faltering as a result. Years of central bank asset price manipulation is finally catching up to the DFW housing market.”
“As of this moment, there are over 31,000 homes for sale in the DFW area. Let me make something perfectly clear. There is NO SHORTAGE OF HOMES FOR SALE! What there is a shortage of is cheap, affordable homes that buyers can qualify to buy as owner occupants. You can thank government policy, and specifically Federal Reserve policy, for this conundrum.”
My 2 cents:
While real estate is local, DFW is in my opinion, a snapshot of the national market. Since housing has been transformed (financialized) into a commiditized asset, instead of shelter, it is now subject to the same laws of economics that apply to commodities. Note that commodities aren’t considered to be conservative assets.
Of course no one could have seen this coming, especially not anyone in the FIRE, or Central Banking cartels. Still, someone’s going to have some ’splainin’ to do as this slow-motion train wreck starts gaining momentum as I suspect it will. Right now I don’t see things as materially different vs. housing bubble 1.0. Everyone’s a genius on the way up. On the way down, not so much.
“It’s like déjà vu all over again.” - Yogi Berra
“We made too many wrong mistakes.” - Yogi Berra