September 13, 2018

A Little More Motivated Than Normal

A report from Bloomberg on New York. “Manhattan apartment vacancies dropped in August to the lowest level in more than four years as landlords, facing the end of peak leasing season, focused on filling empty units before the slower winter months arrive. Taken together with a decline in rents and an increase in concessions, it’s a sign that landlords cared more about finding tenants than pushing the line on prices. ‘These landlords know what comes after the summer so, yeah, they definitely want to fill these vacancies as best they can,’ said Hal Gavzie, executive manager of leasing at Douglas Elliman.”

“Owners offered sweeteners, such as a month’s free rent or payment of broker fees, on 35 percent of new leases in August, up from 24 percent from a year earlier, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. The median rent, with the value of those concessions subtracted, fell 2 percent to $3,310. It was the third straight month with a decline.”

“‘The past few years, the strategy of being aggressive and not willing to react to market conditions caused them to rack up more vacancies,’ said Gary Malin, president of brokerage Citi Habitats, which released its own report on the rental market Thursday. ‘They learned their lesson.’”

The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. “The Douglas is no more. The 240 posh downtown apartments at Douglas and Market will now be known as ReNew Wichita — the result of a recent change in management. As of last Friday, the apartments at 200 E. Douglas are managed by California-based Trinity Property Consultants. Previously, they were managed by the South Carolina-based Greystar, which operated the complex since its opening last year. The most notable change: Rent has been lowered by about $200 per apartment.”

“Studios now start at $650 per month, while one-bedrooms start at $850 and two-bedrooms start around $1,200. Previously, the cheapest studio at The Douglas rented for about $890 per month. ‘The property’s gorgeous, but the main thing we hear from people is the price point,’ said Kim Lewis, who is the new community manager for ReNew Wichita.”

“The property is currently at about 74-percent occupancy, Lewis said. The new management wants to fill those vacant units — so much so that the first 10 applicants who move into the complex will receive two tickets for a Royal Caribbean cruise (good for up to three years). ‘The reason we’re a little more motivated than normal is because we’re at the tail end of leasing season,’ Lewis said. ‘We just don’t want to go into the winter months and have a huge amount of vacancies.’”

“All the amenities of the luxury complex will stay: included with the rent, residents get valet parking, 175 cable TV channels and internet, as well as access to the ‘Sky Lounge’ with rooftop wading pool, a ‘bark park’ with dog wash, a 24-hour fitness center and more.”

The Advance Titan in Wisconsin. “The Annex of Oshkosh informed students it would not be ready for move-in on Monday, Sept. 3, three days before the start of the fall semester. The luxury student housing told residents that move-in day would start Labor Day, even doing hard-hat tours every so often to show residents what the place looked like.”

“According to an anonymous source, promises were made about the readiness of the apartment complex. ‘We came in for a tour and the guy was just like, ‘Oh yeah, don’t worry about it, we have a hundred men here today. It’ll be fine.’ And that was like a month before that,’ the source said. ‘I came again and it looked the same from the outside.’”

“On Wednesday, Aug. 29, The Annex emailed residents telling them that they would have to push the move-in time on Sept. 3 from starting at 8:30 a.m. to noon, adding they will be having a final inspection that Friday, three days before move-in day and that there is a possibility they may not get approved. Residents were informed that The Annex had booked rooms at a temporary hotel in anticipation.”

“According to an anonymous source, on Saturday, Sept. 8 residents were able to move into the Annex, but not without having some problems. ‘They were supposed to have the elevator working and everything, and they weren’t working at all,’ the source said. ‘So everyone had to carry their things. It was insane.’”

“Many of the units still have chipped paint, no screens on the windows and some residents even got reassigned units because theirs weren’t ready. ‘When I got into the apartment, it looked very rushed,’ said Mailine Yang, a resident at The Annex. ‘There were holes in the wall, drywall dust on counters and dents and cracks in the walls. It’s pretty disappointing to see that in a brand new complex.’”

From KTRK in Texas. “Some students moving into off-campus housing at Prairie View A&M University say their move-in has been nothing but chaos. Students who applied to live at the brand new Panther Hill Apartments say their move-in date was delayed several times and they say the new construction units aren’t completed.”

“‘There’s debris everywhere, her bedding was still in boxes, a construction worker had to come in and put her bed together. It’s dirty,’ said parent Tracie Watson.”

“Watson says they had to clean up the mess from construction in their daughter’s apartment, the furnished apartments are missing furniture and they say they had to assemble some of the furniture. Some students moved in as workers were still painting the walls. Construction trash litters the hallways, equipment is parked outside doors and in some cases, the new tenants say the air conditioning isn’t working either.”

From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “Suburban apartment landlords keep hiking rents, but they’ve lost some of their pricing power. Ron DeVries, senior managing director in Integra’s Chicago office, attributed some of the slowdown to a shift in jobs from the suburbs to downtown. At the same time, landlords in some suburbs are having a harder time raising rents amid competition from new buildings.”

“The rising rents of the past few years have fueled a suburban construction boom, with developers adding 1,363 units in the suburbs so far this year and another 4,148 under construction, according to Integra. Developers completed 2,831 suburban apartments in 2016, an annual record, and 1,843 last year.”

“The construction is spread out over a large metro area, reducing the risk of a glut, but some suburbs where developers have been especially busy have felt the impact. On the North Shore, which has added 1,917 apartments since the beginning of 2015, the median net rent fell 6.2 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, more than any other suburban submarket, according to Integra.”

“Landlords in northwest suburban Des Plaines will also face competition over the next year or so from three new apartment developments totaling 619 units. ‘That’s going to be a challenge,’ DeVries said. ‘That’s quite a bit of inventory for one community.’”




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44 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-13 11:40:42

‘the complex since its opening last year…Rent has been lowered by about $200 per apartment…The property is currently at about 74-percent occupancy’

I’m sure after a year of losing money, they’ve already gone back to the investors and begged for operation money. Lawsuits are next. But hey. Student housing is “recession proof”!

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 11:48:16

Back in the bad old days when “safe spaces” were for tornadoes…

A 26% vacancy rate = bankruptcy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-13 12:51:58

Not only that, apartments aren’t valued by comps but rather the cap rate/ROI fairy dust. And when you whack the rent 20%, DONG goes the valuation. Equity gone, lost everything in one year!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-13 11:42:48

‘The construction is spread out over a large metro area, reducing the risk of a glut, but some suburbs where developers have been especially busy have felt the impact’

This is a business site so they have to tow the line. But Chicago’s apartment market has been fooked for a couple of years and it just gets worse:

‘The rising rents of the past few years have fueled a suburban construction boom, with developers adding 1,363 units in the suburbs so far this year and another 4,148 under construction, according to Integra. Developers completed 2,831 suburban apartments in 2016, an annual record, and 1,843 last year’

Illinois is losing population.

Comment by qt
2018-09-13 12:16:25

Not only that but I’m sure units are “luxury” units. Meaning they are overpriced and unaffordable to the masses. QE mal-investments for sure.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-09-13 12:18:11

See howmoneywalks.com shows money leaving counties,states

Comment by oxide
2018-09-13 13:27:14

That calculator only takes income tax into account. But local taxes and property taxes are what’s driving people away.

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-13 11:43:24

Pleasanton, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY On Rampant Mortgage Fraud

https://www.movoto.com/pleasanton-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-13 11:44:59

‘‘They were supposed to have the elevator working and everything, and they weren’t working at all…Many of the units still have chipped paint, no screens on the windows and some residents even got reassigned units because theirs weren’t ready…There were holes in the wall, drywall dust on counters and dents and cracks in the walls. It’s pretty disappointing to see that in a brand new complex’

I’ve lost count of the recent student opening debacles, but Bloomberg mentioned some have already gone bust.

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 11:50:33

The “luxury” student apartment rental…

But…but…recession proof!

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 11:51:27

It’s time the special snowflakes understand how things work in the world of bubble finance. Their parents will pay through the nose so they can live in shoddily-constructed, Soviet-style apartments built to ensure maximum profits for investors, not quality and durability. The sooner the kiddies can see how things work in the Everything Bubble, the sooner they might shake off their NEA indoctrination and start becoming part of the solution instead.

Comment by rms
2018-09-13 23:59:42

+1 Not just a home run… but out of the park!

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 11:45:18

I was just in NYC.

Lots of empty storefronts in nice areas.

ALL of the plethora of street advertisement for apartments for rent say “No Broker Fees”

It seems kinda strange to me - I have rented lots of apartments in my time and have never paid a broker’s fee. Must be a NYC thing…

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 11:57:59

Even the NYT, that beacon of truth and light, is starting to fret over the retail wasteland of vacant shops due to businesses being driven out by greedy landlords.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/06/nyregion/nyc-storefront-vacancy.html?action=click&module=Editors%20Picks&pgtype=Homepage

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 12:26:57

NYT also noted that the housing bubble in Las Vegas is a harbinger of another housing bubble bust.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/las-vegas-housing-crisis.html

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 13:12:45

According to the NYT in this article - it is racist if a landlord doesn’t rent to Section 8 tenents.

And they wonder why DJT is so popular.

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Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 14:12:08

As a taxpayer, I just love being on the hook for programs that encourage and enable future FBs to get into overpriced houses they clearly can’t afford.

The sisters, both in their 20s, were tired of throwing away their money [on rent]. And they wanted a home where their three kids could play. [No husbands/Baby Daddies providing any financial support, naturally.]

After looking at two properties this summer, they found a five-bedroom home with three bathrooms for $300,000. First-time home buyers, they were able to take advantage of a program that provides financial assistance in hard-hit areas. They put down less than $1,000.

“It surprised us. This was the easiest thing we ever did in our lives,” said Ms. Ricks, who works at a medical records company. “It has a huge backyard. The kids love it.”

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 14:50:42

Mr Banker plays for keeps.

In a few years we will have the “we are victims and deserve a bailout and this is all Trump’s fault” articles

 
Comment by hunkydory
2018-09-13 15:10:10

No doubt with a galaxy sized sense of entitlement like their hero Serena - “I dont cheat” while the coach admits to cheating and she looks roided out AF. “I’ve got a key-ud!”. Well hey, I guess then its ok to cheat. And sponsors hand this human excrement 100mil a year?

 
Comment by Neuromance
2018-09-13 17:44:32

Boo Randy: First-time home buyers, they were able to take advantage of a program that provides financial assistance in hard-hit areas. They put down less than $1,000.

So, they’ve got a 299K loan. I went to Google and typed in ‘mortgage calculator’ and it gives me one. I type in 299K @ 4.5% interest, and just the PI of the PITI is $1515.00 a month. With taxes and insurances, that’s gonna be right around 2000. Forget maintenance and utilities

So, they can just come up with 1000 dollars to put down, but they also can come up with about 2000-2400 each month for the house payment and upkeep?

Huh. Innovative financial engineering indeed.

When that loan goes bad, the Fed will print money, extracting that purchasing power from the rest of the economy, and buy it at face value from whoever’s holding it, like they did last time, I’d guess.

Very clever. It’s like generating bad debt IS like printing money.

 
Comment by Tikitaka
2018-09-14 10:00:04

yeah. They have to pay PMI as well. So, most likely a $2500 every month.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-13 11:52:16

Sherman Oaks, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Brokers Team With Buyers To Hammer Sellers

https://www.movoto.com/sherman-oaks-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 11:53:54

3.5 FEET of rain expected in some parts of NC

Which means lots of houses not in a flood plain are going to get flooded.

Most likely no flood insurance.

Wonder how flippers will handle that?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-09-13 12:24:50

Flipper theme song …

“They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!

(psst … “under the sea” rhymes better than “deeply underwater”)

https://youtu.be/azEOeTX1LqM

 
Comment by rms
2018-09-14 00:38:16

“3.5 FEET of rain expected in some parts of NC”

Incredible isn’t it?

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 11:54:31

As of last Friday, the apartments at 200 E. Douglas are managed by California-based Trinity Property Consultants. Previously, they were managed by the South Carolina-based Greystar, which operated the complex since its opening last year.

I would love to see laws passed requiring that apartments be locally owned and operated, and barring corporations and investment banks from the market. That would likely make them more accountable to the community and their tenants.

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 13:05:43

Nothing stops the cheap and easy money finding stuff to invest in gravy train.

Heck - even real communist governments can’t stop it.

The only solution is to make it expensive to borrow and reward savers.

But that doesn’t buy votes of the FSA.

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 12:01:53

More cautions on the housing market are cropping up in the MSM.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/3-reasons-to-worry-about-the-housing-market/

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 13:17:46

The lies of the fake legacy media…

Like homes got more affordable under obama’s ZIRP

******

“Higher rates weigh on home affordability — and thus depress demand.”

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-13 12:15:16

Westlake Village, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Housing Industry Concedes Reports Of ‘Bidding Wars’ Were Fabricated

https://www.movoto.com/westlake-village-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-09-13 12:21:57

Downtown
Wichita
Does moines
Asheville
Terra haute

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-09-13 13:16:23

Johnny’s a singin’:
It is everywhere man, it is everywhere …

I’ve been to,
Reno
Chicago
Fargo
Minnesota
Buffalo
Toronto
Winslow
Sarasota
Whichta
Tulsa
Ottowa
Oklahoma
Tampa
Panama
Mattua
LaPaloma
Bangor
Baltimore
Salvador
Amarillo
Tocapillo
Pocotello
Amperdillo

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IJya1P_j6AU

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-09-13 13:28:37

All outliers.

 
 
Comment by Sean
2018-09-13 13:52:03

Boise, Waco, Wichita………It’s different here!!!!

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-09-13 12:37:03

Median US income (if you believe the data) is $61,400. Meaning the median US shack price should be 3X that.

Something’s gotta give.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/12/census-household-income-us-pre-recession-levels

Comment by oxide
2018-09-13 13:40:10

We’ve had this discussion. Homeownership historically ranges from 60-70%. Therefore, the median income should exclude the bottom 30% of households (they rent). 30% of HH make less than $35K. If you take a range of $35K-200K, median income is about $80K.

Median house price should be 3x $80K = $240K.
Median house price $232K as of end of 2017.

Now granted, this is using median as the metric. Since so much of the activity is happening at the higher end, we should consider another metric.

Comment by qt
2018-09-13 15:31:24

“Therefore, the median income should exclude the bottom 30% of households (they rent).”

This is a nice assumption but not entirely true. I rent and I make above median income.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-09-13 18:44:37

Same for us. We could pay cash for a house well above the median house price, but choose to rent.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-09-13 14:20:13

The long term historical income/price ratio is 2x annual household income.

 
 
Comment by Tim
2018-09-13 13:03:40

“The first 10 applicants who move into the complex will receive two tickets for a Royal Caribbean cruise (good for up to three years).”

I wonder if its a related entity and they also have a lot of vacancies? Wouldn’t make any sense to “give away” prizes they bought at FMV. People would always prefer free rent and spend their money the way they wish.

Comment by 2banana
2018-09-13 13:15:04

Because these “free” cruises are usually a scam.

By the time you add up all the extras, fees and tips - you could have booked something much nicer.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-13 14:43:34

Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Media Continues To Report False Market Data Issued By Industry

https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-09-13 15:03:41

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-09-13 15:32:15

This 87-Acre Connecticut Equestrian Estate Could Be Yours for $33 Million

The property in Ridgefield just got a major price chop.

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/real-estate/g22074480/ridgefield-connecticut-equestrian-estate/

 
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