The Boom Days Over And The Distress Days Coming
A report from the Miami Herald in Florida. “One of Miami’s highest-profile real estate brokerages is engaged in an ugly split, with accusations of substance abuse, mismanagement and runaway expenditures. For 25 years, International Sales Group — ISG — has been known as the sales wizards behind condo projects at Brickell City Centre, Echo Brickell and Muse Residences in Sunny Isles. But earlier this week, the Real Deal reported on a legal fight between principals Philip Spiegelman and Craig Studnicky that began last spring.”
“The legal tussle has become Topic No. 1 in Miami real estate circles. At least one observer believes the breakup is a symptom of the cooling luxury market and may be a harbinger of tougher times to come. In May, a corporate entity run by Spiegelman filed a lawsuit to dissolve ISG, claiming that his longtime partner, a Studnicky-run entity called Craig Nicole Inc, ‘burned through large amounts of cash collected by ISG on sales without producing any profit.’ He accused CNI of running up excessive expenses: ‘ISG’s current overhead expenses approximate $2.4 million per year. It should be one-fifth of that.’”
“In June, Studnicky’s firm counter-sued, claiming ‘Spiegelman’s waste and dissipation of company assets has caused the company to lose customers, employees, independent agent sales people and corporate opportunities. Spiegelman’s substance abuse problems and his unpredictable anti-social behavior and inebriation caused him to be unable to function in any productive capacity.’”
“Some experts say ISG’s breakup reflects the stress of a real estate cycle entering a downturn. While middle-class neighborhood property values are going up, luxury market values in high-end areas such as Key Biscayne and Sunny Isles Beach are down. ‘This is a result of the boom days being over and the distress days coming,’ said Peter Zalewski, principal with the Miami real estate consultancy Condo Vultures. ‘Warren Buffett always said: ‘A low tide exposes who’s naked.’”
“This type of brokerage breakup sometimes happens during stress periods, he noted. ‘But the vitriol between the two speaks to how bad our situation may be.’”
From The Real Deal. “After a more than eight-year run that changed the Magic City’s skyline, Greater Downtown Miami’s condo cycle is likely nearing the end. The Downtown Development Authority’s mid-year report, prepared by Integra Realty Resources, suggests that the cycle is coming to a close as Miami’s urban core has yet to see a new condo project break ground so far this year.”
“The average resale prices for condos fell to $392 per square foot from $405 per square foot at the end of 2017 – a sign that per-square-foot prices are returning to 2014 levels. Condo prices will likely continue to fall in the near future on a per-foot basis to about $360 per square foot. ‘It’s hard to argue there could be any better time to buy as pricing edges down late cycle,’ the report states.”
“The number of units under construction in Greater Downtown Miami totaled 3,849 by mid-year 2018, down from nearly 5,000 units at the end of 2017. By the second quarter of this year, there were nearly 28,000 condo units in the pipeline, up 5 percent year-over-year, according to the DDA. The pipeline includes units that are completed, under construction, under contract, reserved and proposed in downtown Miami, Brickell, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Midtown Miami and Wynwood.”
“Anthony ‘Tony’ Graziano, who authored the report, stresses that this cycle is healthier than the previous one because developers have more equity in their projects. In most condo projects this cycle, developers required buyers put down 50 percent deposits and banks generally required 50 percent presales before providing a construction loan. ‘You don’t have any of the big banking risk exposure,’ Graziano said.”
‘In most condo projects this cycle, developers required buyers put down 50 percent deposits and banks generally required 50 percent presales before providing a construction loan’
We’ve seen reports of less than that for years. And I found one report that quoted a broker saying that “investors” were refinancing their down payments (yes, that’s as insane as it sounds) and buying more condos.
The truth is, no one knows how shaky things are in Miami. What we do know is the price per square foot for condos is significantly higher than last decade.
‘resale prices for condos fell to $392 per square foot from $405 per square foot at the end of 2017 – a sign that per-square-foot prices are returning to 2014 levels’
This is resale. So if you bought one in the last 4 years you are fooked.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As US Unemployment Rate Reaches Record High
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75219/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Home sales price says they’ve gone up yoy 296k to 347k. Crater?
That’s old data you’re looking at my good friend.
“…with accusations of substance abuse, mismanagement and runaway expenditures.”
You’d have to be on something to invest in Miami condos at this point in the cycle.
Gonna be lots of visits from “downtown” on a “mission of mercy” to remind these failing RE offices and realtors that “coffee is for closers.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Lf8GtMe4M&t=10s
like coke’d out rock stars.
You stupid fools that have been living within your means.
“‘This is a result of the boom days being over and the distress days coming,’ said Peter Zalewski, principal with the Miami real estate consultancy Condo Vultures. ‘Warren Buffett always said: ‘A low tide exposes who’s naked.’”
Condo Vultures must be salivating as the condo investing equivalent of a hurricane warning has been quietly issued behind the scenes.
A vulture is a scavenging bird of prey. The two types of vultures are the New World vultures, including the Californian and Andean condors, and the Old World vultures, including the birds that are seen scavenging on carcasses of dead animals on African plains. Wikipedia
Human vulture
“A human vulture is a person who sucks EVERYTHING out of someone, and moves on to the next person; continuing the repeated cycle. They always have new victims. Somehow they manipulate everyone to their side. Watch out for these people.”
Come visit me at my bank and ask for a personal demonstration while you enjoy a free cup of coffee.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=human%20vulture
Oh yeah, when you visit my bank be sure to bring with you information regarding your blood type and a complete list of harvestable body parts.
August 17, 2018
A report from First Coast Connect in Florida. “Real estate broker Gabriel Miranda thought it could take a while to sell unit 905. The vacant condo is in Echo Brickell, a recently-built, sleek residential tower that overlooks Biscayne Bay and Key Biscayne. The building has elevators for cars, an enormous aquarium in the main lobby and a $42 million penthouse. But unit 905 has been on the market since February. And although its price has dropped more than 10 percent, making it the lowest-priced two-bedroom condo at Echo Brickell, Miranda is still waiting for a good enough offer.”
“Buyers from Latin America have fueled much of the boom, Miranda and other real estate analysts say. They have bought many of the new condominiums as investments in hopes of flipping and selling them for profits. But a lot of the units are vacant, and demand for them is lagging behind supply. The resulting glut is causing a decline in prices across greater Downtown, says Christopher Zoller, a realtor with EWM Realty International.”
“‘When you’ve got too many loaves of bread on the shelf, the next day you’re going to see day-old bread sold at half price,’ Zoller says, using a metaphor to describe the Downtown market.”
“In the greater Downtown area, there is a 32-month backlog of condos, says Peter Zalewski, a real estate consultant who runs the website cranespotters.com. Online listings show thousands of units for sale at luxury condo towers including Rise, SLS Brickell, the Bond and 50 Biscayne. Some of the condos are listed for more than $6 million, and others have been on sale for longer than a year. Values for several units have dropped more than 20 percent.”
“Many of the luxury condos for sale in Downtown are sitting unused. Zalewski walks around the area several nights each week and monitors the number of lights on to estimate how vacant the buildings are. There are obviously other reasons for the dark windows—snowbirds and people on vacation or just out for dinner. But Zalewski says the buildings, or ‘ghost towers,’ are unlit regardless of the day and time.”
“Zoller says the oversupply is forcing some people to sell their units for less than what they bought them for. And, on average, condos are staying on the market longer, making them less attractive to buyers who are turned off by units that have been on sale for a while. Zoller’s warning to clients: ‘If you don’t have to sell now, don’t sell now.’”
“But some people do not have that choice. And the glut is even affecting people who do live in their condos, like Deborah Shelton-Tynes. Shelton-Tynes owns two units at the Marquis across from Museum Park. She previously listed her units for about a combined $3.5 million in 2015 before deciding not to sell them. She’s now listing them for less than $2.3 million. ‘There’s just too much competition out there,’ she says. ‘By 2016, everything started to go down. I started watching properties going down.’”
“Shelton-Tynes, who plans on moving to Key West, says she will not drop her price because she can afford to wait for a buyer who is willing to pay more. But several other Marquis residents have already sold their units for losses, she says. People ‘lose their shirts.’”
“Seth Denison, a principal with the real estate firm Brickell Ventures, says prices will continue to decline as more units go on the market. Condo owners are now renting out their units until they are sold. And developers are even shelving projects until values rebound.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10549
For those wondering about Ms. Shelton-Tynes’ source of income, and how she can afford the luxury of “wait[ing] for a buyer who is willing to pay more,” she is a freelance photographer.
http://www.globalmarinemedia.com/about-us.html
That building was completed 10 months ago. Currently more than 20% of the units are listed for sale. I wonder how many other units owners want to sell but are not listed because so many units on the market right now.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/25.758007,-80.192408_ll/25.76066,-80.189319,25.757013,-80.194367_rect/17_zm/1_fr/
Tibetan Vultures — Scarf Down
https://imgur.com/a/64RWgD2
Is that a real estate investor whose bones those birds are picking over?
Human Vulture AKA Realtor
‘It’s hard to argue there could be any better time to buy as pricing edges down late cycle,’
How do you protect against catching yourself a falling knife?
Conference on the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis | LIVE STREAM
American Enterprise Institute
Started streaming 26 minutes ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfRh3yERKjc&feature=em-lbrm
Listening to this I noticed in all the complexity, a roof over your head doesn’t enter into it.
Ten years after Lehman, and nothing has been fixed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-14/10-years-after-lehman-and-nothing-has-been-fixed
Houston, TX Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As Global Oil Glut Thrashes Oil States
https://www.zillow.com/houston-tx-77081/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
This one is definitely ugly! Ouch!
The “scariest moments” from the 2008 financial crisis.
https://www.businessinsider.com/financial-crisis-scariest-moments-2015-9
Lots of blue eyes in those photos.
Well the market is hot in California- Sacramento, bay area, Los Angeles, San Diego. Not seeing price drops here.
pat - read back thru the last three months of this blog. california is rife with price reductions on for sale houses. median prices haven’t dropped yet but they will next year if things keep going along the same trajectory.
“…Well the market is hot in California- … Not seeing price drops here….”
FYI, last time I looked, the area I live in (Irvine, Orange County) was part of California.
For at least 6 months, probably longer, every MLS listing I track in my area has posted at least 1, and usually multiple price *decreases*.
Foot traffic is down at open houses.
Last realtor I talked to attributed lack of foot traffic to “the humidity”. (Humidity was pretty Florida like the entire month of august in the OC.)
Yes, a few properties have posted modest increases, but IMO these are realtor ploys to try and generate a sense of fake urgency.
Don’t look now, but the 1-month T-bill is yielding 2%. It’s high time to get off your behinds and figure out how to establish a Treasury Direct account,
rather than accepting the paltry low yields paid on your savings accounts.
Or, (door number two) keep your money in your savings account and sit back and enjoy the rise in savings account rates brought about the raise in Treasury rates.
Hey professor, check out this rate:
3.25% on 15-year share certificate (credit union version of CD):
https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/18-month-cd-rates.html
Does that lock up your money for 15 years? If you want to gamble on current rates being relatively high compared to the expected average over the next fifteen years, then it might be wiser to go for a 10-year or 30-year Treasury bond. We are already in one of the longest ever peacetime business cycle expansions, and if the economy tips into recession over the next decade, you can sell the bonds for a capital gain when rates drop, which is not an option with the CD.
Whoops, I mistyped. It is 15 month certificate, not a 15 year certificate. I definitely wouldn’t lock up for 15 years at 3.25%! That would be almost as crazy as buying a house at current levels!
I posted that one above because it’s by far the highest risk-free yield at the lowest term that I have seen by a long shot.
I ran across this …
“Threat Of Rising Global Interest Rates Not Fully Grasped By Markets”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4201175-threat-rising-global-interest-rates-fully-grasped-markets
I like the term “threat” that is used. Some folks would prefer the term “gift”. I suppose it depends on which side of the transaction you find yourself on.
Whatever.
A snippet …
“Given that there is no way to provide the global economy with further interest rate relief to make up for higher debt, a long period of debt deleveraging awaits us.”
Ah, debt deliberating could (should? will?) present us with some Interesting Times. Some very Interesting Times.
Keep in mind that our economy is a consumer-based economy that is largely powered by borrowed money. If you do not know what ramifications deleveraging will have on such an economy then I suggest you drop by my bank for a demonstration.
(Sedation offered upon request.)
“debt deliberating” = “debt deleveraging”
“debt-deleveraging” = cheap talk
“seeing” = believing
I “ladder” my CD accounts and have had occasion to renew a few over the past month.
Lately, banks are willing to negotiate rates.
My experience has been the opposite as recently as just a few months ago.
You can usually get a 15-20 basis point bump just by asking especially if you come armed with a competing banks rate sheet.. (Even an ad torn out of the newspaper will do).
I did that over the phone with the senior VP of a local bank. I just pointed them to the best offer that I could find on depositaccount.com for the term I was interested in and he said he would match it. The CD was for over $100k, so I think that helped a bit.
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Glut And Defective Appraisals Ravage Bay Area Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-geithner-and-paulson-have-invented-alternative-history-of-lehman-collapse-professor-says-2018-07-25
Somebody just posted this in one of the older story comments and now I can’t seem to find it again to comment there. But it’s irritating because the guy is claiming that things would have been even better now if the Fed had been even more aggressive about saving the bad banks like Lehman. He claims to have a lot of data but doesn’t even touch the topic of moral hazard or the practices and debt that needed to be cleaned out.
MarketWatch=garbage in garbage out
Must have been a banker or banking industry beneficiary making the comment.
Matt Taibbi (of Vampire Squid fame) has been schooling people hard lately on twitter…all the historical revisionists. My ears perked up when he said the thing to watch this time is “CLO”s (collateralized loan obligations). I had not heard of those before. But it sounds like a variation on an old theme…
Borrowed leverage$ of the long.lever$ boy$&girl$ is = to addin’ a 16′ collap$ible pole to your 24″ chain $aw, … Bad thing$ can re$ults if you trip, or it $uddenly collap$es … Wor$e than catching a falling$ knife.
Taibbi wrote a good piece on the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, and how the root-cause problems remain unaddressed.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/financial-crisis-ten-year-anniversary-723798/
I believe mortgage-backed securities are a type of collateralized loan obligation… maybe.