Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Auctions? “Newly Remodeled Harbor Estates Home on extremely rare Single Loaded Street. Bike to Dana Point Harbor, Capo Beach and Doheny Beach.
“How about builder incentives? “In addition to the fixed four-percent over three years, Standard Pacific’s Summer Savings Program will include events offering additional buyer incentives at several of the builder’s East Bay communities, including Cortina in Oakley , Oxford Square in Tracy, Andalucia in Fairfield and Portofino in Vacaville.”
The Buffalo News. “Home sales in the Buffalo Niagara region fell 8 percent in June compared to the same month last year, as the number of homes on the market continued to rise. Miriam Treger, president of the BNAR, said prospective sellers shouldn’t ‘overreact’ to the market conditions and rush to cut their prices, unless they are facing an immediate deadline to sell.”
“‘We can create an artificial dip by overreacting,’ she said.”
From Florida. “The number of foreclosures in South Florida jumped dramatically in the first quarter of 2006, up about 3,000 (or 40 percent), when compared to the end of 2005. ‘I’m seeing foreclosures in many areas where they just weren’t prevalent before,’ said Rhonda Light, who operates in Palm Beach and Broward counties. ‘The foreclosures we’re seeing now are all over the board and in all different price ranges.’”
“The downturn in the real estate market should be a lesson to all potential investors: You should think long and hard before using creative financing, such as adjustable-rate mortgages, to purchase a home.”
A landlord like this in Dallas? “In many cases though, it’s not just the home owner, but anyone renting or leasing the home that is affected by foreclosure. The home Gwendolyn McGirt lives in is scheduled to be foreclosed in early August. ‘We have never been late on our rent, but whatever’s happened on his end, the rent hasn’t been paid and the mortgage is due and the people are harassing him now,’ said McGirt.”
From the topics thread. “San Diego inventory is already at record levels, and I’m trying to get a handle on how many (more) people have to/will have to sell. Corrections to these numbers are welcome.”
Home sales in SD ‘04 (Patrick Heald): ~52,000
Home sales in San Diego ‘05 (Bob Casagrand): ~42,000
“According to an old SD Union Trib article, 63% of buyers in SD used I/O loans in ‘04 = 32,700 homes. Some of the sales volume in ‘05 was probably resales of ‘04 flips, but that’s still a lot of of hot potatos floating around.”
Here’s a new ad from the Verde Valley in Arizona:
‘$379,900 Priced Below Recent Appraisal! This 3br 2ba 9 year-yound home is located on 1/2 acre at the base of Mingus Mtns w/ great views!’
Just put up the newest edition of “Price Reduced” for Northern NJ. An amazing list this week. The high-end seems to be where all the reduction action is over the past month.
Price Reduced 6/23 - 7/15
For those interested in the price reduction statistics..
Total Price Reductions: ~4400
Average Price Reduction: 4.3%
Total Dollar Reduction: $105,086,522
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Northern NJ Real Estate Bubble
For those interested in June sales data for North Jersey, we’re trending at down approximately 21% year over year.
Northern New Jersey June Residential Sales
June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)
“$379,900 Priced Below Recent Appraisal!”
Wow!! Instant Equity!!
I’ve got some new Sacramento stats out:
sacrealstats.blogspot.com
-Pending sales 27% lower in July than April
-All-time record inventory by next week
I’ll have my flipper and price-level inventory data up by the end of the day.
Just added a “Filppers In trouble” gallery:
sacrealstats.blogspot.com
It’s like a car crash. Horrible, but you can’t stop looking.
Max — thanks for the research and all the hard work to put that together. It is like a Flippers’ Morgue.
It really is sad. On the one hand, these are investors who are supposed to know what they’re doing. The reality is, these are naive people who were sold on a get-rich-quick scheme and are now paying dearly.
The hope is these people will take something away from this and make smarter investment choices in the future. They’ll have 7 long credit-rebuilding years to learn the lesson.
“these are naive people who were sold on a get-rich-quick scheme and are now paying dearly.”
These “naive people” are the ones who made housing such overpriced and unaffordable .
True enough, though tend to blame the lending standards more than the borrowers. You can’t blame somebody for trying to make money, but when value of the “investment” is tied directly to the availablity of credit, the more credit there is, the more competition.
Thank god the days of competing against every dumbass guy willing to bid $10K more than you for a house are coming to an end.
Had a client in my office yesterday or BK7. Trying to sell his home. A VERY well known RE agent here in San Diego assured him they would sell within days at $895k. 30 days later the same broker recommended he drop price to $750k. He owes ~600k on the home. Client asks RE agent why he can’t measure the market and WELL KNOWN RE agent says he hasn’t had to “work” a sale in over 5 years so he’s a bit rusty at coming up with trends and markets. We’re walking away from the house in the BK. . . In the rear view mirror we’ll all be prophets. . .
BKlawyer — good story. Timely and predictive of the future for most places.
Thank you, BK lawyer. Trying to figure out who that VERY well-known RE agent is.
“The reality is, these are naive people who were sold on a get-rich-quick scheme and are now paying dearly.”
This is another page out of California history in the making, and a direct reflection of the 49’s who drove the state’s first mania, the Gold Rush. Back then, after the initial discovery of gold and the gathering of the big nuggets lying in plain view, the waves of immigrants joining the gold rush found an increasing level of competition and slimmer pickings for the ore. By analogy, as more post-bubble sellers add their homes to the growing mountain of inventory, they will perceive a growing dearth of qualified buyers.
That’s great!!!! Good work, Max.
Is it my imagination, or did most of those first listings sell for over the reuced asking price?
Due to popular demand:
Flippers in Trouble Gallery: Yolo County Edition
Flippers in Trouble Gallery: Placer County Edition
I plan on a major expansion of this gallery feature. Check my blog next week for details.
sac,ca is back to 04 pricing=wow
I didn’t think that would happen anywhere till nov/dec
I read this last night.
Turn Your Backyard Into Paradise
“In fact, spending six digits to create a backyard retreat isn’t a big deal anymore.”
Choke.
Really. And when they try to sell the house with the cool “retreat”, they’ll also try to add what they’ve spent into the get-what-I-put-into-it asking price. I can hear them now….”but, but…the house is beautiful. Look at what we’ve done. It’s SO worth what we are asking. The right buyer will see that.”
Not….
BayQT~
Someday (and I mean SOMEday) I’ll put a lot of sweat - maybe a bit of money - into the landscaping of my future house. It’ll likely end up like a little Japanese garden (maybe half of the back will be a zen-like rock garden). Then, I plan to spend the rest of my days there. Like, forever.
Why, oh, why would anyone put tons of cash into a place they have no intention of calling “home?” Simple. It’s called greed. Look, I don’t knock people for trying to sell their homes for the most they can get. This is atarimae - it goes without saying. But borrowing half a million to buy a piece of land with some wood, stone, and pipes above it… WITH THE INTENTION OF SELLING FOR PROFIT is greed. Just greed. A deadly sin. We could tack on sloth, as well - trying to make a living without working. Wait, pride (Hummers), gluttony (Americans = fat), envy (Joneses)…
Interesting.
Floppers trying to unload new construction:
http://www.homesinpbc.com/REwebAPP_01/HomeInfoDisplayForm.aspx?homID=2663363
http://www.homesinpbc.com/REwebAPP_01/HomeInfoDisplayForm.aspx?homID=2670234
http://www.homesinpbc.com/REwebAPP_01/HomeInfoDisplayForm.aspx?homID=2661813
These illustrate what I believe to be a flaw in the content of MLS listing sheets for buyers in Florida. The flaw is that the sheet does not project taxes at the current millage and asking price. In the first example, the taxes shown are $3,000/yr., but if a buyer paid the asking price, the taxes would be more like $8,000/yr. This has caused a lot of pain and anguish for a lot of buyers, whether young people just squeaking into the place, monthly-payment wise, or retirees who pay cash for a place and need minimal cash flow out during their years in it.
It is a problem of the time, only because of the rapid run-up in prices and so may not be remedied because the need is about to drop off a cliff.
I posted this in another thread yesterday, but don’t want it lost in the shuffle. Lennar saying “Any reasonable offer will be accepted” during a one day sale it’s running throughout South FL next weekend. Crazy, huh?
http://www.lennarhurryhome.com/index.php
Mike — wow — We’re having a Screw the Comps Party and you’re invited!
I’d love to be a fly on a reseller’s wall when they read that.
I’d like to show up at that sale with Mike Morgan. That would be a laugher!
Would a reasonable price be local rental comps x 120, or a 30-year fixed monthly mortage payment in the ballpark of rents I wonder??
Re the Dallas landlord story: this is personal to me. Right now we have a landlord who owns outright, but we pay more rent than I’d like, and I’m guessing 2-5 years before we can buy “close enough” to a bottom. I’m also expecting that by this time next year, the FB-or-REO-turned-landlord trend we are seeing in adjacent communities will hit here, but I’m wrestling with the issue of how to protect our backsides while benefitting from a glut of FBs, speculators & empty homes.
In Tennessee, enters can be out on their butt with mere DAYS advance notice, if they weren’t aware of a foreclosure in process. (And sure, you can sue the foreclosed owner for breaching the contract. Good luck!)
There needs to be a change either in tenant law, or in the culture of the rental market - if no legal recourse against eviction for a renter, then renter should be getting a clause in the lease releasing him on 30 days notice in the event that the landlord is in foreclosure or serious default. Question is, how much will it cost to assert such a demand? - i.e. can the landlord afford to wait for the dumb sheep such that the demand would be a deal breaker?
In reality a tenant will have more than a few days notice of a pending trustee sale. “We buy houses” hucksters will be showing up asking to look at it. The bank will have an appraiser or two coming by to evaluate before the auction. And of course, you can follow the public notices yourself. Just do a courthouse search once a month for NOTICE OF DEFAULT recorded against the owner by the mortgagee.
Dude, like, I think you live in the deep south, where everyone except the uber-wealthy is totally screwed, no matter what.
But seriously, in more northern climes a rental lease is no different than any other lien at a foreclosure - it must be honored - you can’t kick a rent-paying tenant out. The new owner gets the rent, sure, but the renter stays.
It really is yet another irony of the housing bubble, that, depending where you live, renters have greater protection under the law than do house owners. I know of no jurisidiction where there is a prayer for an owner in default on a mortgage - it’s curtains. Let “the man” come after me, and he will grow old whilst his lawyers grow rich trying to get rid of me.
> a rental lease is no different than any other lien at a foreclosure - it must be honored
Is this also true, if the rental contract is younger than the mortgage that is reason for the foreclosure? If yes, it strikes me as unfair to the lender who could not know of any contract restricting his rights to take the property. In which state do you live?
> I know of no jurisidiction where there is a prayer for an owner in default on a mortgage - it’s curtains.
A renter not paying the rent is out pretty soon, too.
I think a lot of states are like that. It’s the same thing when you sell a rental that has a tenant with a lease. The buyer has to honor the lease.
> It’s the same thing when you sell a rental that has a tenant with a lease. The buyer has to honor the lease.
That could be easily misused by a homeowner facing foreclosure. If he in this situation rents his house to his brother for five years and small rent and then lets the foreclosure happen, would the bank have to honor the lease? The brother could even sublease the house back to the old owner for the small rent. To take the lender’s money in this way sounds too easy to be possible.
The rents in my apartment building are dropping. Apparently the huge glut of housing that’s developing locally is also affecting the rental market. Not surprising given that a lot of investors are trying to rent out their properties as it gets harder to sell and wages have been largely stagnant for the past several years.
“The rents in my apartment building are dropping. ”
Where? Please let us know.
We heard a rumor a couple of weeks ago that our apartment complex in Ahwatukee was going condo. Today I asked the manager on duty at the main office. She said that it’s untrue. Other places have been going condo in the area. One Equity apartment complex was about to on Chandler Blvd (Lakeshore?) but they decided to wait and see (smart) how the market is. I think by July 2007 the condo conversions will no longer happen. They are probably slowing down significantly, by what one of Ben’s blogs suggest.
“Other places have been going condo in the area. One Equity apartment complex was about to on Chandler Blvd (Lakeshore?) but they decided to wait and see (smart) how the market is.”
And it turned out to be the smartest move they ever made. By 2020, amidst global warming and summer high temps regularly reaching the mid 120’s, and on the heels of several major mid summer power outages rendering air conditioners useless for days at a time which subsequently roasted small children and the elderly like marshmallows over a campfire, the desert was experiencing a mass exodus not seen since biblical times, of those delusional folks who always cried “but it’s a dry heat”. Let the good times roast Phoenicians!!!
YAH… took a look @ havasu -forecast for tomorrow is a chilly 121 friggin degrees. SHEEEIT.
I still want to know where the rent reduction was.
I lived in AZ since 1996 and never had power outage problems. Our energy is far less regulated than California’s. A big chunk of energy in Phoenix is from nuclear power anyway. I’m more worried about drought. I am not worried at all about global warming. “Global Warming” is a ploy by fans of big government to take more control of the individual. I’m very afraid of Al Gore and Coward Dean than the weather.
al has 2 v8 cars -wonder how many the deanster has ?
no nukes
no drilling , just hot air
Darwin will take care of this one.
I live in Montgomery County, PA. I was hoping to find another rental to move to and wait out the crash, but the rents are staying pretty high around here (and landlord’s will NOT negotiate). So I decided to stay put and re-sign at my current place for the 4th year in a row.
My landlord reduced my rent by $20/month for the upcoming year. Of course the reason is because we used to have gas included and now will have to pay for it (cooking, hot water, heat) - but it was still a pretty nice gesture. I pay peanuts compared to what condos are being rented for. My rent for a 2BR, 1.5BA, 950 sq. ft. apartment is $779 (was $775 in year one, $785 in year two, $799 in year three, and now going to $779). It’s a small complex owned by one guy (not a company). The apartments are HUGE, but old and noisy. Plus I face the parking lot which wouldn’t be so bad if all the neighbors would be polite (most are, a few are totally inconsiderate - of course those are the ones who’s apartments don’t face the lot).
Anyway, I can’t beat this rent price anywhere so I’m sticking around for at least one more year (and buying a few sound machines so my son and I can sleep better).
Two reductions on my street (Utah Street, North Park in San Diego). Two houses for sale DIRECTLY across from each other, listed for $689K. One just blinked $689K -> $659K. Another house on the corner two doors down was listed for $970K. Reduced a week later to $920K.
I haven’t seen any sold signs recently either.
It’s over and everyone knows it’s over here in San Diego.
tampa here. on the way home from the movies saw a billboard for what look like converted apartments, offering no closing costs and no hoa dues for the first year.
right behind the theater in soho there is a huge condo going up.
That theater is in Hyde Park, not SoHo, and you’ll notice that people are not buying the codos going up behind it. PAsking prices have doubled and tripled from their excessive pre-construction levels
Somebody needs to tell the pretentious twits of South Tampa that it is not Beverly Hills, and does not merit Beverly Hills prices. It’s an ugly, humid, crowded dump with delusions of grandeur.
Some fool bought the theater building with the intention of putting condos there, too, but apparently he’s re-thinking the stupid idea.
Incidentally, the property taxes in Hyde Park are 2.5% of selling price, so any idiot paying a million dollars for a condo next to, and overlooking, the Crosstown Expressway and its retention pond, is going to have to pay 25K for the joys of breathing exhaust fumes and trying to keep tire dust (black oily stuff) off his floors and furniture. P.T. Barnum was correct after all.
Hey, the Crosstown is a great view. I’m just waiting for one of these idiot FL drivers on their cell phone in their H3 to go flying off the Crosstown and straight into one of those overpriced POS condos. Do you suppose hurricane shutters will stop a flying car?
During the past week here in Bradenton, FL I’ve had 3 different flyers put on my apartment door (actually they were on every door in the complex). Two were from the same Real Estate joint around the corner and one was from a mortgage broker. I emailed both with the following:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.87%
5-year ARM: 6.52%
30-day teaser rate on Option ARM: 1%
Desperate Realtors/Mortgage Brokers preying on apartment renters in one of the most hyperinflated markets in Florida: Priceless.
No response……yet.
Yesterday at my wife’s beauty shop in central Florida, she overhead two old-timer agents:
A: “Open houses are so ‘90s.’”
B: “Yeah, no one shows up anyway. If I do an open house, I don’t pay for advertising in the paper. I just put the sign out. Everyone can go online and look up the pictures and everything. They’re doing all their searching online and not reading the paper.”
A: “We had seven transactions last month that fell apart, three of them the day before closing. All were because of financing. The buyers had OK credit scores, but now the lenders are re-checking the day before closing and not giving the financing.”
Both remarked how they are not very busy.
Lenders are re-checking what? Did the credit scores change during escrow?
“Did the credit scores change during escrow?”
It sounds like either they did, or the lender boosted the minimum score for the loan that was applied for. Presumably in the latter case, there was weasel wording in their commitment to allow that. I thought that was the highlight of the remarks.
It may not be the credit score, per se. They may be checking the credit report for signs of unusual activity just before loan funding is to occur (e.g., other borrowing).
Could of been a double check on the appraisal .
Oh, also saw a client that is a Realtor a couple days ago and asked her how business was. She went on to say she’s extremely busy and has listings in neighborhood X, Y & Z..etc. Then she goes on to say she hasn’t had one showing on any of them. I guess her idea of busy is sitting around open houses picking her nose.
Seattle’s eastside area still seems to be booming with multiple offers & escalation clauses very common. First time home buyers are feeling the pressure
Seattle’s eastside definitely different!!
She may be right, probably the last of the fools rushing in. You would think, by now, that anyone with even a smidgeon of common sense would realize which way the market is headed and wait it out. I guess some idiots still compare anywhere USA prices to California and as long as dollar for dollar it is less, then it is a good buy!! People will learn the hard way in time that real estate prices are much more closely tied to the local economy, than the national economy, etc. There’s a sucker born every minute.
Nah, there is pecular breed of American idiot that would ONLY buy if they were in a bidding war. They have no sense of value and can only judge by what others are doing.
Ah come on. It’s not just an american disease. We are all little monkeys. “Monkey see, monkey do.” It’s the same thing in Europe, in Canada, in Australia, in China, in Japan, in the UK etc…. Mass civilization gives mass stupidity and it is global. The peculiar breed is quite common across the world too.
Inventory in the tiny village of Wrightwood CA has doubled since I unloaded my last property there in April. Wrightwood “by coincidence” was just featured in the Life Magazine article about great places to visit*.
[* you know the punchline.]
Ate at one of the quaint little restaurants there after comimg out of a weekend hiking trip in the San Gabriel Back Country. This was some years ago but back then it was not a bad little mountain community.
My all time favorite little vacation village is Lone Pine, The gateway to the Eastern Sierras.
Lived in LP for years……. love it there, lots of new “retirees” moving there now. Not too many properties available.
I sincerely hope that the RE Bubble does not hit Lone Pine and that it is not turned into another Charming little desert/mountain community”discovered” by Scal RE vultures.
Liked to fish and hike at Whitney Portal (8000′ elev) 15 miles above Lone Pine, west toward Mt. Whitney. Catch and release of course.
Visit, yes. Live, no? There are definite QOL differences among locations. Current pricing seems to reflect that less and less. Yet we do not adhere to the convention of comparing houses by price per sq. ft. Interesting, I think.
Inventory continues to climb on the Central Coast, due primarily to the drop in sales. Sellers were holding firm with list prices during the spring, but there have been increasing number of reductions in asking price during the past couple of months. Some sellers do seem to be pulling their properties off the market if they don’t get their price. However, as of just this past week, I am finally starting to see reductions in list prices as compared to a year ago, and there are even a few (small, old) SFH (not just condos) in San Luis Obispo listed at under 500k. Zillow indicates that prices are heading down, and assuming that Zillow’s sales data are correct, I even saw one newish house listed today for less than it had sold for in 2004.
The “psychology” in the area is also at a tipping point, I think, and the conversations I hear seem to be split between people who think that the market is changing vs. those who do not think that prices here will ever come down.
“Inventory continues to climb on the Central Coast, due primarily to the drop in sales. ”
I’m keeping an eye on that area, as well as the far north coast in the Mendocino to Westport area. For now, T-bills are my thing.
I am in Cambira this week and WOW! There are tons of homes for sale here! My family rents a house here every summer and I have never seen sooo many open houses and for sale signs. I looks like everyone is trying to get out of the elevator at the same time. WOW!
*Cambria
They’re building homes on a large scale in the Ca central coast? I thought the Central Coast was No-growth, off limits to large-scale housing/urban development?
Yeah, water restrictions. I remember the water cops in SLO growing up. Whenever I go back I don’t see that much in the way of new housing developments, except in Paso Robles.
These are all pre=owned homes for sale. I took a pic of a street with several houses for sale. I will send to Ben.
True about pre-owned. Many people don’t realize water problems exist off and on in central California besides, of course, all of the heavily populated Southern California areas. Quality water will be more and more scarce in the next few decades in the southwest.
I’m in Charlotte, have neighbors renting nearby with a house in Buffalo they’ve been trying to sell all year. They drove all the way back this weekend to clean and prep the house some more for a “prospective buyer” — so I suppose even now it’s not real firm. Sounds like a tough market there.
Meanwhile my own little neighborhood in the 28210 zip code is still doing OK. After a slow June, homes began selling during the past couple of weeks. I’d still call it a rising market with normal inventory levels.
Just anecdotal stuff, but RE agents in my neck of the woods (San Fernando Valley) are starting to show signs of real desperation.
There’s been one RE guy around here who has been blitzing the neighbourhood for weeks - scratchpads, flyers, ads at the bus stop, and on the 4th of July, a flag (with his details on it) stuck into my front yard!
So, this morning, there’s an ice cream truck outside our house. Turns out that they’ll give you a free popsicle if you also take the card of this new realty office…
And, although we’ve never had a mortgage, my husband got three (count them, three!) offers for different mortgages, personally addressed to him in the mail today.
Anyway, I can smell thier fear and see panic in the whites of thier eyes….
(yes, there are decent honest hardworking people who are realtors. The guys coming out of the woodwork at the moment stike me as being, well desperate. I’m sure that the former will survive, but its interesting to see the latter implode).
Well, the two places Ive been tracking in oc are still on the market….SINCE DEC 17th. One dropped the price 35K the other 2K….new photos though. Zgoing on 7 mos now…bwahahah.
Northern Nevada is up over 10K
http://rgj.homescape.com/rgj/index_map.jhtml?userId=UPAZSUCUNU2IZLAZGQPSFEY227531&_requestid=8370
Yeah, it’s getting pretty fugly over here. The core is exposed and it’s moments to meltdown.
LOL. Burn baby burn, Reno/Carson is TOAST!!! Local wages don’t support those prices you IDIOT BUYERS/SELLERS!!! Nobody with an IQ over 75 should even bother to look at houses there anymore. You could make an argument that Reno is the most overvalued city in the whole US.
Hubby did interviews on Thursday. They had 50 apps for 2 jobs, there was an add in the paper.
Here’s someone trying to unload an “investment” in Fort Myers.
http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/rfs/181998636.html
Let’s see… assuming 20% down, the mortgage interest would be around $1000-$1100 a month, so there goes all the advertised rent just cover the interest.
The new “investor” gets to pay principal, taxes, HOA, insurance, maintnenance and rental management fees.
Whatta deal!!!
..Let’s not forget Insurance which has gone up what? several 100 percent?
Found a couple more in the local paper. This one is in Verde Santa Fe, in Cornville, AZ. This is a development that has a buch of flippers.
‘FSBO buyers market. VSF golf course community. A pictures worth 1,000 words. Save on gas and time. I will send out a full color flyer for you. Politeness to all.’
It didn’t give a price. The next one didn’t say what town it was in.
‘2005 Very unique. 2,260 sq ft. Top-of-the-line everything. Taking loss. $720,000.’
Does mentioning he has taken a loss make anyone want to buy?
“Taking loss. $720,000.”
“Does mentioning he has taken a loss make anyone want to buy?”
In the Deep South, when we make an offer like that, we might send along some BBQ. That says, “Nothing personal.”
Makes me want to offer less. I mean, hey, if you’re already taking a hit…
Seriously - no I think “taking loss” is completely unneccessary to include and would think it would deter more people than attract.
In other words:
“Depreciating asset for sale!”
Heard a condo developer is no longer selling separate units and calling current owners to try to sell them a whole building with units of 8. Too much inventory.
Simmsays…Like Music While You Run
http://www.americaninventorspot.com/nike_ipod_sports
Moved to S. Oregon 7 years ago with my husband and kids from The Motor City. It was so hard to purchase a home (what with the wages here), that finally we were able to buy 56 miles away from Medford,(where my husband works as a truck mechanic). This wasn’t an easy commute, going over 3 passes, especially in winter. Anyway, we sold our house last November and got double what we paid. The house sold in 3 days with backup offers in cash. Now, this was like the tail end of the bubble because our neighbors waited a month or so to list their houses and guess what? Still for sale! We are now renting from our broker who has informed us that she is listing the rental because the housing market is so slow. It is really beginning to come down here. Over the past 7 years, houses sold right away and you couldn’t make an offer quick enough! It was like everything stopped last November. Price reduced everywhere around here.
Housing in Sterling Heights, MI still stinks. Only 2 homes have sold in our subddivision this year. They sold at drastically reduced prices of $305k (2700 sf) and $330k (3100sf plus 1600sf finished basment). Last year these homes were going for $360-$398k). They were built in 2001 by Pulte for those prices!
Just an update on our home. We finally received our first offer for our home priced at $339k (3133 sf). They offered $400k, but asked us to pay their $80k downpayment and closing costs. I understand they have horrible credit and no money. They also want all our appliances because they don’t own any. My realtor said there were other hideous contingences in the offer as well but didn’t want to go into it. What a scam! Of course, we rejected it.
“They sold at drastically reduced prices of $305k (2700 sf) and $330k (3100sf plus 1600sf finished basment). Last year these homes were going for $360-$398k). They were built in 2001 by Pulte for those prices!”
The new reality: houses depreciate. If I owned your house, I’d cut that price every two weeks until a credible buyer comes along — and take my lumps philosophically as a good life lesson.
Discalimer: that’s easy for me to say, since I cashed out at a profit.
We have been reducing our price every month. We started in March at $392k.
It took us 6 years to save for a 20% downpayment for our
“dream home”, plus cash for landscaping, window treatments, air conditioner, etc. We took out a 30 year fixed low rate loan. We bought the home to live in, not as an investment. Even after 5 years of living here, we are looking at losing a significant amount of hard earned money. I am bitter and have extreme disgust for the greedy sellers in bubble markets.
We won’t be buying in Phoenix anytime soon.
We won’t be buying in Phoenix anytime soon.
Neither will anyone else!
I’m sorry for your misfortune. It can’t be easy to sell in Michigan these days even without the current financial environment, from what I’ve read.
Uhhhhhh… look, you are trying to get as much at the market will bear. I’m sure you are asking for a price well above fundamentals. So are the sellers in Phoenix. If somebody wants to price a cardboard box in the park at a million dollars, that’s their right, and if they sell, all the better, and if they don’t sell, that’s just market mechanics at work.
Your assessment could not be more incorrect. We are by far the lowest priced home in our area (similar houses are priced $399-$450k). The problem with the Michigan market is there are no buyers due to the demise of the auto industry (massive layoffs due to bloated UAW contracts for the past 30 years). Even homes priced below $150k are now sitting on the market for months/years. I suppose you can make an argument that they are not priced to fundamentals, but home prices have not increased in value since 2001 (we never saw a bubble). How many people are willing go to a closing with money to give to the buyer after they have owned their home for more than 5 years? People will foreclose before they do that.
It is easy to say “you are priced too high compared to what the market is willing to pay”. However, the situation here in Southeast Michigan is far more complicated than that. Despite what many people think of the Detroit area, this region was a major factor in fueling the world’s economy for over 50 years after the end of the second world war. The problem is that the American auto industry became complacent and arrogant, thus losing huge market share.
We are trying to figure out how to migrate from an old manufacturing based economy to a more diverse, high tech and entrepreneurial base. Until that transition gains traction, the real estate market will continue stagnate. These are long term, highly complex problems with no easy or quick solutions. These economic and political issues are every bit a part of “market mechanics” as our asking price.
Unfortunatly for you the only part of all that within your control is your asking price, which you may have to lower (through no fault of your own). Of course, if you can wait till the economy in SW Michigan comes back you should do that. That may be a very very long time though.
You are correct, Will. Local economists, corporate leaders and business owners all say that any turnaround will take a minumum of 5 years. That’s just with the auto industry. The trick, of course, is to be able to attract non-auto business (drug companies, computers, etc.) to the area. With our taxes as high as they are and the big labor union influence, it is difficult to imagine why a company would want to come here. Things are going to get much worse before they get better I’m afraid.
Mi huh? I have a friend there who has a house for sale in Birmingham, a really nice place.
Couple of weeks ago he was offered 2/3rd his list price if he would take cash. Literally, cash. The person was going to give him a sack full of cash - not kidding. He asked the buyrer where he worked, the buyer said he was in imports and located at the Detroit airport.
A guy from a notorious drug area bought a car from me about ten years ago — $30K in cold cash. I told him we’d go to the bank together and he would deposit the cash to my account, which we did. I wasn’t about to get stuck with counterfeit or drug-stained stuff.
was it monopoly money?
imports = drug money
Whatever it is, it didn’t pass the IRS test first.
It’s always monopoly money.
There is no better time to invest than now. Prices will continue to rise, making that property you’ve been looking at priced out of the market with rates going up.
Queen Creek Az realtor from Realtor.com.
Anyone follow the Charlotte, NC market? I looked at some 2br condos on Lake Norman about a year and a half ago that were selling for $125k. They are just over $200k now. I did not think that they were getting this type of increases…is this a lakefront issue, or is the rest of charlotte jumping up too?
I think Charlotte has mini-bubbles mixed in with normalcy. It’s kind of like a potato stew.
Some of the nice inner neighborhoods like Chantilly have doubled in 4 years. ‘Hoods near Eastland Mall where the signs are not in English anymore, have hardly budged.
I’m in the future light rail district (28210) which has shown some very healthy gains in Madison Park and Wilmore.
Used to live in Charlotte. Talking with friends and after a recent visit, there may be a condo bubble. Everyone owns or is about to buy a condo to rent/flip in uptown. The lake has gone up in prices, but was undervalued for many years. Looking around my old neighborhood, the prices have gone up, but you still get so much for your money. You really get $500K worth of house when you spend $500K. I think there will be a slowdown though as what’s been causing the growth are the northeasterners making a killing on their homes and relocating to Charlotte. Warning: Slimeballs stay away from Charlotte too!!!!!!!!! The parties already over! No money to be made!
“The current home sales environment is characterized by an increase in both existing and new homes available for sale, higher than normal cancellation rates and an increase in the use of sales incentives in many of our markets,’ said Chairman Donald R. Horton”
SCal update on increasing home inventory in Riverside county:
Pardee is building a huge master-planned community of SFH’s out in beaumont/banning. Just went out to the Capella development tract and seen the plot designs for tracts 31893-1 and 31893-2, each of about a hundred homes. Capella is just one phase:there may be as many as 4-6 other phases.
You can google Pardee homes and click on Inland empire under Sundance homes/Capella. The Development is off the 10 fwy:get off going north on highland springs road about a mile to Sundance rd : go left into develoment, which is at border of Beaumont/Banning.
Not especially enamoured of this area: a bit seedy close to the fwy, with rough patches,some low elements , ragged trailer parks and low-income housing pockets. The units are listed in the high $300,000’s , which IMHO is way too high and should drop down to under $300,000 as the IE experiences slowing sales and exploding inventory.
The sales pitch on Pardee’s website says that Commutes to LA,OC are close and convenient, a real whopper. Try 3 hrs min commute to OC and add another half to 1 hr into LA.
Temecula/Murrieta inventory of SFHs is a little more than double what it was last year at the end of July: 1748 then vs. 3539 now…
Murrieta/Temecula at least has a large diversified industrial park with some major corporations there, which is a big improvement over the rest of the Inland Empire/Southwest Riverside region.
I have seen a flood of cars from New Jersey and Rhode Island in Houston this week. Are they all moving here?
Friend of a friend’s place in Santa Barbara, CA was just put on the market for 740K, which is virtually the same they bought it for in 2004. They are sending out spam emails to try and generate interest. With their remodelling, they are already be in the red if they sell for what they are asking.
So much for the supposed 20% YOY ‘gains’ we’ve had here in paradise since they purchased…
I always was jealous oF Santa Barbara because it has everything desirable in a community( pristine Beaches, beautiful old Mission area, Lots of greenery, clean air, ocean views, ect.
I hate even more that fact that SB by exclusionary zoning/no growth policies keeps all but the rich from buying homes there. Home values falling there would be deserved justice for an overpriced, snotty area.
Hmmmm… Santa Barbara… all the excitement of the Central Coast (Not!) with a snotty attitude to boot. Count me out. If you want to just sit around all day and look at the beautiful beaches it is okay, although so are many other place in California. Otherwise, spend a weekend there and it gets old. At least in Cambria you have an out of the way, relaxed, groovy, artsy place, and same with Mendocino to Eureka.
Yeah I live here and pretty much agree. I do like it a lot, if only that it’s southern california without the crowds. I.e. like La Jolla or Del Mar would be if they nuked the rest of San Diego, Palos Verdes sans LA, etc. The whole wannabe American Riveria stuff is a load of crap…
Heh heh, yeah, I bad mouth San Jose mostly, now Santa Barbara too… and I forget about all the people who live there! Santa Barbara would be a nice casual college town if it wasn’t for the American Riviera stuff, illegalizing homeless people, etc. As you said, upscale SoCal without the rest of the big city attached.
Carpenteria(just north of ventura) used to be a small quaint coastal farm village till it got “gentrified”.
How is Morro Bay doing as far as RE Development? Last I went there 20 years ago it was just starting to sprout a few new home tracts.
Do you have a link to it? I would imagine 2 bed 2 bath for that price in SB.
It’s at the office, sorry. It’s a newer 3BR townhome. Single-story,which makes it ‘almost’ a SFR. Nice, but not 700K nice.
…time to hurry up before the music turns off!
My neighborhood, popular neighborhood on the eastern part of Tampa.
Description
Price reduced - $80k below appraisal on this grand majestic ii floor plan by suarez homes in heron glen. With over 3100 sq. Ft. And located on a conservation/waterfront lot, this home has it all! Won’t last!!! (its been a few weeks. Lasted fine)
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 06/21/06 — $434,900 to $399,000
Days on Market: 29
Here is another one, same nice neighborhood:
Price Reduced: 06/08/06 — $414,900 to $399,900
Price Reduced: 07/02/06 — $399,900 to $394,900
Price Reduced: 07/09/06 — $394,900 to $369,900
Two price drops totalling 30k in one week, 45k in 5 weeks. No bubble here. Move along.
Days on Market: 58
One more just for fun:
Move in ready 2944 s.F. Like new home in fh ranch. Seller will pay $5,000 in buyer’s closing costs at closing. This spacious home has 4 huge bedrooms, plus an office, plus a guest room. The home features brand new stainless steel kitchen aid appliances. His and hers walk in closets in master suite. No backyard neighbors and lovely view. The backyard is fully fenced with easy maintenance white fencing. This home is located in the #1 school district in hillsborough county. Enjoy all the amenities of fishhawk ranch while enjoying the less congested streets that phase i offers.
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 05/13/06 — $450,000 to $439,900
Price Reduced: 05/17/06 — $439,900 to $430,000
Price Increased: 06/06/06 — $430,000 to $435,000
Price Reduced: 06/09/06 — $435,000 to $425,000
Price Reduced: 06/30/06 — $425,000 to $415,000
Price Reduced: 07/06/06 — $415,000 to $400,000
Check out the price INCREASE! Some early June optimism? (or a mix up with the agent about the 5k offer) And what’s with the 400k? Why not 399,900, more of an eye catcher, right? I can just hear it: I WON’T GO BELOW 400k, that is my bottom price or I’ll lose money! My house is worth 450k! Bernake’s fault! Realtor’s fault! There is no bubble here! My everyday conversation 4 months ago: Them-Prices won’t go down! Me-Why? Them-Cause I don’t think they will. Prices never go down!
One guy told me back then-have you ever seen the price of milk or a stamp go down???
I might have a lone opinion on this, but I think $400K is a much better “price” than $399,900. The reason: MLS search criteria. The buyer tells their agent the price range in which to look. Some agents adhere strictly to this instruction. The more experienced troll 10% or even 20% above, as a “see what you can get” option. But in the range this property would be marketed, the upper or lower limit is infinitely more likely to be $200K than it is $199,900, so you pull in more potential buyers in the sense that it is at the bottom of the $200-300K lookers’ range and at the top of the $150-200K lookers’. The $1.99 concept is just about useless in real estate, IMHO.
Phase one at Fishhawk ranch…bet they didn’t pay over 200K for the house. I visited FH ranch over the 4th of July weekend and went to some model homes…prices were in the high 600s for what I would want. My buddy who was showing us around paid 195K for his home there 4 years ago. Dammed if I’m would ever pay 3 times the property tax rate as my neighbors. I also visited one resale open house. House was empty (very loney older realtor woman inside) and it was a “classic” situation. The house was empty, price reduced, and the realtor explained that the owners had already moved into another bigger house. I was thinking if I was a serious buyer this would be a great opportunity to low ball. I’m positive the owners are currently stuck with two mortgages, taxes, etc. trying to sell the empty one in a slowing market. That’s what I’ll be looking for next summer, but not in Florida!
Fishhawk Ranch isn’t in the #1 school district of Hillsborough County, unless the seller means the most embarrassing or something. Plant High (Golf View/Palma Ceia) is the best high school not only in the country, but possibly the entire state, and Gory and Wilson (Hyde Park) are the best grade schools in the county.
Why can’t people tell the truth in their ads? Brandon is redneck territory, demonstrated by the Baptist and other bible-thumper churches on every corner, the trailors everywhere, and the cows munching in the fields.
I had a friend who went to Brandon high school and reported boys having sex with cows (kept by members of the F-H Club back then) during home room. The cows would moo, and his home room teacher would dash to the school barns to stop the beastiality. That’s Brandon for you. #1 school district? Yeah, for hicks who like having sex with cows.
Incredulous,
Fishhawk is the only A rated schools for elementary, middle and high school in Hillsborough County. Yes, Plant is rated A this year, but 2004-2005 as well as 2003-2004 they had a B rating. How can the be the best high school in Florida without consistent scores. Looks like your info is a little outdated! Fishhawk’s high school was the only A rated high school in Hillsborough county for the 2004-2005 school year. Get your facts straight before spewing false, negative remarks! Fishhawk is located in Lithia south of Brandon, not in Brandon. It is a wonderful community! Although just like the rest of Florida it is over priced! Brandon is a wonderful community as well and does have pockets of not so nice areas, as does south Tampa. That’s just the way Florida is. One of the reasons so many choose to live in a master planned community in Florida. How hateful of you to say such nasty things about a family community!
Get serious. Brandon is hicksville and always has been. I remember when the first Chinese restaurant opened there. All the food came out of cans, but the locals didn’t know the difference, and lined up in bliss.
Whatever grades your Fishhawk schools got mean nothing. One year does not great schools make. And what is the test in any event? That goofy thing that Pres. and Gov. Bush have been pushing? The one that teachers call a joke? Gory, Plant, and Wilson have consistently scored high year after year in tests of real academic performance, not pre-rehearsed standardized tests past by memorizing answers; they also have some of the most advanced scholastic programs, and great parental participation.
Lithia Springs is even worse than Brandon. I’ve been here a very long time, and well know all these areas, and portraying them as modern, sophisticated and cultured is hilarious. The reason people live in planned communities around here is because they’re WAY cheaper than real neighborhoods.
Fishhawk Ranch gives its address as Brandon on its Web site, but what difference does it make? East Hillsborough County is filthy, industrial, redneck, and hideous. Now you have an influx of Scientologists taking over downtown Plant City, so it should get even more disgusting.
Hateful? I don’t hate Fishhawk Ranch; it’s not worth the effort. You obviously fell for the sales propaganda, hook, line, and sinker, no pun intended. Either that, or you have a financial interest at stake.
No financial interest, don’t live there but have researched schools, neighborhoods, and communities that best meet the needs of my family. Renting until prices come down in Westchase. Won’t stay in Westchase because the high school stinks. South Tampa does not appeal to me as aside from Bayshore, there is no where for my kids to ride their bikes, rollerblade…. Not to mention you can spend a million dollars and be stuck next to a dump.
Test scores are test scores. Fishhawk has consistently scored high, never a B. People move there for the schools. People in South Tampa don’t move there for the schools. Most of my friends that live in S. Tampa do private. Your schools you mention are great schools, just don’t bash other schools you know nothing of. Test scores are the best tool we have at this time for judging schools. If they didn’t mean anything, then every school would say we’re the best, don’t worry about those scores. They mean nothing. Just says the kids are smart enough to memorize the test. Sorry bud, I’m a teacher and know the tests. Not a big fan of them, but they do indicate performance. Yes, the students have memorized the tests. They’ve memorized math formulas, phonics……you either know it or you don’t.
I know Tampa as well as any. A native. Grew up in Carrollwood, went to Tampa Catholic…… I know what Brandon was like. I had my first job in Brandon back in 1989-1994. It was definately country. Still has a few pockets. It is now a bedroom community or suburb. I have lots of friends that live there. What a wonderful community. They rally around their neighbors, such as a couple of sick children and have raised tons of money for them. They look out for eachother and have had no complaints. The houses typically are middle income, and for that they should be shunned! Give me a break! They are not rednecks, scietologists, or filthy people. Shame on you for saying that. However, people do like to throw stones at glass houses.
Obviously, you have been in Tampa for awhile, so you must be able to concede that most of Florida is not well kept, south tampa is no exception to this rule. Brandon isn’t either. Planned communities do retain their property values, pre housing bubble. People seek out planned communities for the deed restrictions that are necessary as many Floridians believe it’s okay not to mow your lawn and that weeds are an exotic plant. They are safer for our children with their gates(not that they are totally safe). The children can safely ride their bikes to school……..
FYI We have decided to move to either Lakewood Ranch in Bradenton, Panther Ridge in Bradenton or Odessa, Florida(to have a little land) these are the best fit for our family. We chose not to live in Fishhawk, for several reasons. 1. It’s way overpriced,as is everything in Tampa. 2. It’s still very underdeveloped around the area and if this bubble bursts, it could be years before it’s built up more. 3. It’s too far off the highway. People originally started moving their families there for the value and schools. Now the value isn’t there.
I have no vested interest except to state facts where they are necessary. You spew nasty venom about a lovely community, I feel the need to correct. Of course, you probably live in one of those south tampa 50 year old shacks that hasn’t been painted in 10 years with weeds and ant hills for grass yet feel the need to degrade a lovely community.
Actually, I live on a Bayshore corner in the only part of South Tampa you like, in a house built in 1913.
All of Tampa sucks, but East Hillsborough County is horrible. Go west on Hillsborough or east on Hillsborough and what do you get? Rednecks.
Brandon is overrun with fat people from Ohio; it was the #1 destination for people looking for cheap housing in America for many years.
Fake Yuppies and people pretending to be wealthy have taken over South Tampa. But, I notice an awful lot of “for sale” signs going up, especially on all those outrageously overpriced “townhomes” between Kennedy and Swann and on the streets off of Bayshore. Speculators, I reckon, trying to get out before being wiped out.
Rents between Swann and Bayshore are climbing into space because landlords THINK their properties are now worth zillions; as the bubble collapses, they may have to rethink their self-importance.
People in South Tampa (south of Kennedy) can’t let their lawns go, because the city fines them a fortune if they do. We also pay property taxes at 2.5 percent of selling price, more than anywhere else in Hillsborough County, to subsidize all the poor people from Kennedy north who pay little or no property taxes. And what do we get in return? Narrow potholed streets, massive traffick, hideous overbuilding.
As I said in a post above, the people of South Tampa need to realize this is not Beverly Hills, and does not justify the pretense. Tampa is a dump.
Incidentally, I too went to Tampa Catholic. I thought it was awful.
Do you have any positive thoughts?????????????????? Try Prozac. It might help!
Not about Tampa. Nothing can made this place look good. The 3 o’clock traffic on West Platt Street today was like rush hour traffic only a few years ago. The Public was crammed with pushy people.
I prefer downtown St. Petersburg.
Is this Miriam Treger an idiot? She is hurting her own realtors by telling the sellers to not panic and hold their prices. This problem is that the seller still think it is 2005. Her realtors are starving. There is a huge disconnect between buyers and sellers.
Buddy near Cave Creek in Phoenix… bought 8/05 for 305k, put it up for sale last month for 299k, reduced it yesterday to 288k. Very nice 1900sf house built in 2001.
Why is he selling? To move about 5 miles north into a “better” neighborhood with a bigger house before he’s “priced out forever”.
His exact words.
Does anyone have evidence of popping in SFe or Los Alamos NM?
Here in Los Alamos, it seems every other house is for sale.
Our neighbors (flippers) threw a hissy at us because they did not
sell their townhome the first day they showed it — our fault because
our music was too loud. Next day, three more houses went to market
in our row. Hahahaha. Los Alamos and SFe are very snotty (like SB CA
where I used to live!), and every one is leveraged up the wazzoo
(except for us, hahahaha!), and I’ve become totally fascinated by
watching the beginings of the Hummer/BMW/Escalade driving snots
slow motion wipe out. Anyone else from NM have a say?
(former lurker)
This home market is crazy.
Home sales in central orange county ca seem to have fallen off a cliff. I rent a fairly large townhome (1500 s.f. with 2 car garage and actually a large back yard) 1.5 miles from the beach. I pay $1600/mo., but this place is supposedly worth $600k according to “zillow”. In the past two days, I’ve seen yet two more places put up for sale (join the crowd!) nearby.
My landlady does think housing is way over-priced. She doesn’t care, though, as she’s owned this place (and others) for a very long time. Her taxes are very low and she’s just happy to get regular checks in the mail from her tenants.
Traditional investment people like Warren Buffet base their assessment of an investment on how the dividends or earnings of the investment stack up to the price of the investment. (Hence we have P/E ratios and such.) Appreciation of the price is not part of the earnings - but appreciation (expected or real) of the earnings can be considered. If earnings can be expected to appreciate rapidly (or actually are appreciating rapidly), then a rapid price appreciation can be considered reasonable. But the fact is that rents (the only conceivable form of earnings for a RE investment, unless you plan on striking gold or oil on the property) are *not* going up very fast at all.
So, an investor can be in denial and think to themselves “but rents may skyrocket”. OK, so if rents skyrocket, then the inflation values will also skyrocket (the inflation values that the Fed keeps its eye on, which conveniently don’t include housing prices - just rents). The Fed will do everything in its power to stop large scale increases in inflation, and will end up raising interest rates to quite high levels. In effect, the Federal Reserve will tend to work against large increases in rents.
So, my example (though my rent is perhaps low by $100-200), 600k when rent is 1600, that’s a decidedly unremarkable P/E of 31.25. Put it this way: for a stock that would be an easy sell barring some unusual circumstances. What this does *not* include: HOA fees (don’t know what they are for my townhome), taxes (approx $600/month if you buy this home now), maintenance, insurance, etc. And somehow, people who borrow large sums of money to buy a place like this: poof - the interest will now put you at a numerical loss every year. Factor in inflation (currently about 4%) for “real appreciation” and you are really losing your butt.
Even if you have the cash to buy the place, you will easily make twice as much earnings (really much more) just buying treasury bills or CDs! That’s nuts!
And for those who think that home values are supposed to appreciate by huge percentages: think again. Home prices in the US over the last 100+ years have only appreciated about 0.7%/year above inflation levels. That’s hardly the 15-30% (minus 4% inflation) we’ve come to expect from recent years experience.
This is caused just as much by fear as by “exuberance”. I think as home prices have continued to climb, more poeple jumped on the bandwagon simply out of fear that they would never be able to afford a home if they didn’t buy now. (Reality is that most couldn’t afford anyway but were offered too-good-to-be-true deals from mortgage brokers.)
There’s no substitute for calm, cool, clinical analysis. Never make a huge investment/home buying decision based on emotion.
So many a RE investor is stuck, especially if their investments are leveraged. It’s difficult to find a rational justification for the sky-high home prices in today’s “hot” markets. And all that “demand exceeds supply” and “land is running out” is hogwash. This country has an enormous supply of land, good for generations. Condos come with very little, if any, land and still they demand sky-high prices. (The real sad thing is condos you still have to pay rent. Here’s a horror story for you - a new hi-rise condo complex in Irvine, that has units from 400k-1.9mm, has HOA fees of - GASP - $1000/mo for the low-end 850 s.f. units! Whaaa?)
A great book for those interested is Robert Shiller’s “Irrational Exuberance”. The theme of the book is not to convince you to sell your home, but it is a detailed look at how bubbles (”naturally occuring Ponzi schemes”) appear and play themselves out in markets, in particular the stock market and real estate markets. Reading it, you can’t help but see the parallels between bubbles past and the current RE bubble. Very good book! By a very smart individual!
But if you are illiterate or are severely challenged in quantitative analysis (like adding two numbers together) then by all means go for broke - buy that overpriced home! In the future, those who wait will be able to pick up newly built homes from Toll Brothers, Pulte, etc, which will be sold at yesterday’s prices. (Yes that’s right, the home builders are still building houses. Imagine that!)
Thanks for coming out of the closet, so to speak (lurker to poster). Welcome to the club.
Where do you predict your rent will be in a year? Higher or lower? What if she sells?
some sonoma county,ca. news…i was talking to an honest realtor i know in santa rosa yesterday…he just did his first short sale in 7 years,and told me homes have dropped about 20% since the peak,and homes in the median range are dropping about $5k a month now.quite a bit more inventory came on the market late june and early july.and while driving around looking at the cardboard condo’s going up in petaluma and santa rosa it was obvious that construction had speeded up,or come to a near halt on all of the projects.open houses were dead.my realtor friend said 20 agents left the office where he works last month,and good riddance.my office lost 5 last month out of 20.
I found this little note on BoycottHousing.com for the SF Bay Area. This is the first time I’ve heard of “quiet listings” being a significant phenomenon.
“One thing still bothers me is that even though it is a buyer’s market now, you don’t see too many realtors turn around and sucking up to buyers by helping buyers to bargain down $50K or more. The realtors are still very well “unionized” - together they tell the sellers not to worry about it, just stick it out for 3 to 6 months, the home will sell at its asking price. Or if not, find a renter to move in instead of selling it at a lower price. I know of realtors who have so many listings that they are afraid to put them all out on the market all at once, because too many competitions will spoil the high prices. So, they don’t market them publicly. Just through word of mouth. Those are called quiet listings.”
sf,there will never be a shortage of unethical people,any more than we will see a shortage of fools,i have been a loan broker in the santa rosa area for a couple of years,and have met two highly competent and ethical real estate brokers.i am sure there are more,i just don’t know them well enough to be sure.both of these men have killed more deals than they have made in the last two years,and have told me that it is beginning to pay off,i can say the same.the incompetents and the fast money boys and girls are leaving in droves,and i’m sure a lot will end up in florida boiler rooms selling the next hot deal.good riddance.
Or “Pocket Listings” to get their commission and screw their client. Their sign will still be out!
Moved to Phoenix in May, I rent and notice rentals go fast… but for sale don’t seem to sell. Many more for sale signs up now than when I first moved here 3 months ago. This is the Awatukie area which I think means “blast furnace” in native American. Want to eventually move to Tucson area which I like much better. I think Tucson also has a over abundance of housing?
In the Hartford Connecticut Metro region, south, north, west and east of the City, priced have risen this year another 5%- However that rise has now ceased. Inventory is up over 50% in many towns over a year ago. Lots of Condos on the market (over priced/not selling) and locally one builder told me ‘too many McMansions’ 450K and over -being bought by ‘young professionals’- trouble is they have no furnature in them!-he said….
Those inventory numbers are approaching 1997-1998 levels- not a good omen say many local private economists who lived through the housing bust of 1989-1996.
NYC Outer Boros here- For Sale signs are becoming the new weed. Popping up everywhere, similar to the DC suburbs. $2000 rent for a House that was going for $650k, but hadn’t moved.
The next phase is the Arson wave. As I said here a year ago, “Saturday Night Specials” will probably start keeping Arson squads busy. Crime will also skyrocket as soon as people feel that they can’t make an “honest” buck in the flipping market.
I returned to southern CT from a year abroad. Prices are noticeably higher. One telling example: the price of a first-class stamp has held steady, but ExpressMail has risen over 30%. Im guessing that the price of a stamp is part of the government’s inflation measure, and ExpressMail is not.
Real Estate is on the minds of most of our friends, even though most own homes and are not planning to move soon. No one questions the wisdom of our selling last year and renting for a while. People tell stories of wildly overpriced houses that have come down in the last six months, but there is no casual talk of crisis.
I am struck by how far one has to drive to get anywhere. After living out of the US for a while, the inefficiency of our infrastructure is glaring.
For some reason Tucson Condo prices still going up:
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/news/138053
Im renting a 1200sf for $885 a month, could’ve bought it in ‘04 for $150k but thought it was over-priced than. Zillow shows it now for $219k, did i screw up by not buying? Or will the market come back down? Anyone else kicking themselves for not buying or is that better than kicking yourself for buying? Im so confused, the market here keeps going up even though its a low wage town. Ever since the Californicators landed here in ‘03 its gotten horrible. 3 bedroom inner-city SFH’s go for 500-800K!
Zillow is questionable at best. It is a neat little app which can give a lot of good historical data, but it cannot accurately paint an accurate current picture.
This is looking over pretty much everywhere. If you bought for $150K in 2004 you would be paying, lesse:
20% down = $30K; cost of tying up $30K = $100/month.
$120K at 5.625% (rates in 2004) = $691/month.
HOA fees = $150/month.
Prop Taxes = $80/month.
TOTAL = $1021/month.
The tax savings might be enough to bring it back down to CLOSE to breakeven with what you were paying to rent.
So all in all, you have no additional cost. You do have the trade-off of flexibility with “pride of ownership”. Of course with a condo that pride is for the air between the walls.
Ignore the $69K zillow tells you that you “could have made”. Unless you were planning on selling now, that is only illusory and probably already disappearing.
Zillows estimates look biased on the high side and not a reliable reflection of local values, based on comparable sales. But otherwise, it is a great concept — just needs lots of improvement to reach the level where it is a true competitor for a knowledable observor of local market conditions.
Hi midi,
reading the article it seems the foothills condos are still selling but other areas no. I guess we will have to wait and see? Cali equity is drying up so that should help keep a lid on prices? I still think next year will tell the trend in RE.
Very creepy observation in Roseville, CA: My wife and I decided to cruise a nearby neighborhood to check out some newly reduced properties; five of which were on an inside street that surrounded a large park. The park was packed with upwards of 40 people; kids playing on swings, a makeshift softball game, etc. When we stopped near one of the homes my wife got out of the car to get a flyer from the sign. I look over at the park and, to my surprise, probably all 25 “grown-ups” had come to a nearly catatonic stand-still — staring directly at us watching our every move. We were surrounded by vultures. The Roseville/Rocklin, CA area is in dire straits.
Yikes! I would hope your wife got back in the car and you drove off without taking the flyer!
Roseville was home to one of HPs plants. Carly Fiorini, Pres of HP, closed the plant. Got booted out too late by BOD after devastating employees and stockholders value. HP still makes a good printer but their computers suck. Lots of homeowners got screwed by her in Roseville.
That is how every good Zombie movie ever started.
Found a Flip to end all Flips.
Someone is flipping a 4-plex here in Santa Monica. It was built in 1924, and last sold in 2000 for $776,509. They converted it to a large single-family house, installed the “Chef’s Kitchen”, etc, and it’s on the market for $2,950,000.
SD zip realty = 23,066 — was well below 23K last weekend.
Today’s SD Union Tribune has six separate pages in the advertising supplement with roughly the lowest 2/3 of the page devoted to open houses. I can’t imagine that these are getting much traffic, given the recent news that prices are down by 6% since November 2005. The vultures are circling, but they will not alight until the market has truly died, and everyone is saying that San Diego real estate is a terrible investment.
Just came back from three open house visits in Playa Del Rey (in LA, just north of LAX). I looked at some 2- and 3-bedroom condos in older (1970s and in need of updating) buildings priced around $500K. There were 5 different real estate agents sitting on lawn chairs in front of one large complex waiting to greet me. I looked at 2 units in that complex. Then I went to another small building with a real creep of a RE Agent who shoved a paper infront of me saying how low my monthly payments could be (with “ARM” wordage in small print at the bottom) and asked “Why rent?” The paper showed $1,500/month with a downpayment or $2,500/month with no downpayment.
All three units had price reducions handwritten on the flyers and all three are priced well below Zillow’s “zestimates.”
As I traveled south down France Avenue in Minneapolis, from Lake to 50 street, I counted at least 20 houses for sale.
The distance between W 50th St & France Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55410 and W Lake St & France Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55416 is 3 miles.
For Northern Virginia Bubbleheads:
This article on the front page of the Washington Post stunned me today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/15/AR2006071501004.html
“In the frenzy to build subdivisions in Northern Virginia’s exurbs, one of the nation’s largest housing developers has offered to write the small Fauquier County town of Warrenton a $22 million check, an unprecedented cash donation, according to Virginia real estate specialists.
In exchange, Centex Homes of Dallas would get permission from county and town leaders to build a subdivision just outside Warrenton with nearly 300 luxury homes for seniors, starting at $850,000.
The $22 million — almost half of Warrenton’s annual budget — would pay off the debt on a new swimming pool complex in the town of 8,000 people.”
The starting price of 850K makes very little sense to me. Perhaps there is a niche market out there for this kind of stuff, but it seems far-fetched. There currently are plenty of “over 55″ developments in the works; many are even flips and rentals. There is currently a Ryan community that starts in the 500’s in the same county. I also looked up the last 12 months of sales over 750K for Fauquier County.
Homes sold over 750K
2006
June — 9
May — 5
April — 7
March — 3
February — 5
January — 4
2005
December — 4
November — 9
October — 6
September — 8
August — 10
July — 10
12 month total — 80 houses sold (and really, for over 750K, many of these properties also come with acreage).
Current Inventory (priced over 750K) — 112
Centex plans - 300, and for exclusively over age 55.
I think the County’s hopes for the 22 mil might turn into vapor! This past January the county assessed properties at “Fair Market Value”, and now homes are languishing on the market at well below 10% of that recent assessment.
In a way I hope I’m wrong, and that everything turns out hunkey dory. Maybe there are enough seniors from the D.C. suburbs willing to plunk down 850K+ on a house. That way, we get the swimming pool for the younger generation. Kind of payback for us paying for their Medicare and Social Security.
Anyone have any thoughts on a prolonged Mideast war between Israel and Iran effecting the housing market here? I don’t see how the bad news can NOT have an effect. Seems like most of the MSM here is pretty much ignoring that angle.
From Ventura, CA
(coastal community where they are not making any more land, everyone wants to live here, the weather is priceless, etc…)
In my complex where we rent a nice 3bd 2ba 1700 SQFT townhouse for $1835/mo. Two identical units are for currently sale:
Norwood Ct. 3bd 2ba 1700 SQFT attached 2 car garage $495K
33 days on market
Green Bay Ct. 3bd 2 ba 1700 SQFT attached 2 car garage $489K
45 days on market
Most Recent Sales:
Boulder Ct. 3bd 2ba 1700 SQFT attached 2 car garage
sold 4-24-06 for $560K
Norwood Ct. 3Bd 2ba 1630 SQFT attached 2 car garage
sold 11-10-05 for $540K
I don’t know, but it sure seems like the prices are coming down to me???