September 17, 2018

You Probably Should Have Sold Last Summer

A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The slowdown in Dallas-Fort Worth’s housing market may be worse than at first glance. Sales of preowned single-family homes dropped 1 percent annually in August in all of North Texas, according to the latest numbers from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Those numbers include data on more than two dozen counties stretching from the Red River to Waco. When you drill down in the numbers to just the immediate D-FW area, August’s dip in home purchase activity was much larger. In the Dallas area, sales of preowned homes by real estate agents fell by about 4 percent in August from a year earlier.”

“But some Dallas-area residential districts saw marked declines in home buying last month. Real estate agents say the overall numbers understate the housing sector cool down. Sales last month were down almost 31 percent in Far North Dallas. They dropped 24 percent from August 2017 totals in Allen, and were off 21 percent in Coppell. Plano had a 16 percent year-over-year sales decline and sales were down more than 11 percent in Richardson and about 9 percent lower in Frisco.”

“So what’s the takeaway from all this? D-FW still has a good home sales market, but not as robust as last year. That’s good news if you are trying to buy a house in the area. But you probably should have sold one last summer if you wanted a line of potential buyers at your front door.”

The Scotsman Guide. “Housing analysts told Scotsman Guide News this week that the U.S. housing market has hit a plateau. The latest tracking data for home-purchase mortgages appears to confirm that. Attom Data’s Daren Blomquist told Scotsman Guide News that the demand for home-purchase loans ‘was trudging along,’ but rising mortgage rates and eroding affordability have taken a toll.”

“‘Especially when you look at some of the local markets, we are starting to see mortgage rates have a chilling effect on some of the purchase originations,’ Blomquist said. He noted that home purchase counts have declined by double-digits in Los Angeles and Dallas, where affordability has become a problem.”

“Blomquist said this flatness in the home-purchase market will likely continue until home prices cool off, or come down. ‘It has been such a strong sellers’ market, but this spring and summer may have been a bit of a wake-up call for sellers that they can’t get whatever they want for homes,’ Blomquist said.”

The Scottsdale Independent in Arizona. “For the city of Scottsdale, the housing market started in a lull, but has since picked up steam, according to Becca Lining, a Realtor with RE-Max Excalibur. The market experienced a small delay at the start of the school year, but has made a quick recovery,” she said pointing out all economic indicators suggest a steady, healthy housing market. ‘There is speculation of a ‘bubble’ from consumers and economists, however, I have seen a strong market with moderate appreciation, which indicates a healthy future.’”

“Thus far in 2018, there have been 5,908 single-family homes sold in Scottsdale, numbers show. In Scottsdale, there are 24.5 percent fewer homes for sale, which experts say is fueling healthy gains in both median sales prices and closed sales. There are 21,717 active single-family home listings in the city of Scottsdale, as of Aug. 31.”

“No market illustrates the idea of affluence better than the Town of Paradise Valley, but just as any marketplace, norms and emerging trends are beginning to shift, experts say. However, as much things change, they stay the same, according to Dub Dellis, who serves as chief operating officer at Walt Danley Realty. The group now has an office in the DC Ranch area — Mr. Dellis says the idea of luxury downsize is becoming a want his group is looking meet.”

“‘The buyers today are more educated than ever before,’ he said, pointing out consumers know what they want. ‘We have shifted from being the provider of the information and our role now is to interpret that information.’”

“‘The reality is, when you look at the pricing — it has been flat for a few years, but there has been an uptick,’ he said. ‘The average price of square foot going up is due to the product that is selling. It all depends on the type of property you have. If you have a newer property, that is what the buyers are looking for, but if you are in an older home that isn’t updated, the prices are going the other way.’”




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51 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-17 07:25:01

‘Thus far in 2018, there have been 5,908 single-family homes sold in Scottsdale, numbers show…There are 21,717 active single-family home listings in the city of Scottsdale, as of Aug. 31′

That’s some shortage.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-09-17 07:29:52

As I commented to somebody here not long ago, the inventory build in the greater Phoenix area last bust was nothing short of spectacular. I expect the same this time around.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-09-17 07:35:53

I shot some video in Scottsdale a few years ago. There were foreclosures all over the place. But it’s that way all over greater Phoenix.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-09-17 07:41:24

I remember looking at the mls back in 2006/2007 when things were really starting to unravel. What struck me most is that the area is so massive that you can always count on finding like 5 of the same house available for sale in the same neighborhood, so price is the only thing that’s going to move it. The FBs are super effed.

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Comment by ItsADryHeat
2018-09-17 12:44:49

I feel like things are starting to get juicy around here. Obviously the RE shills will say it’s normal September happenings but I wouldn’t believe them.

More anecdotal evidence:

A house in the neighborhood went up for sale that was bought only a year ago. They wanted a decent markup. It sat, had a price drop, then went off the market. No one is living there, I saw them move out.

A small neighborhood to the south experienced a huge uptick in inventory. Like, every other house on a street went up for sale. One person backed out and is now trying to rent.

A neighborhood to the north with a lot of flipping activity went from about a couple houses for sale to 7 on the market and sitting.

A large neighborhood to the southeast is inundated. It lights up on zillow with for sale and rent. Lots of corporate landlords who list, let sit, take off market, then relist almost 6 weeks on the dot. Voila, fresh listing!

There’s a huge slap fight going on in the Phoenix subreddit. Mostly pertaining to rent/housing costs. https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/9gfvbr/in_the_phoenix_area_rapid_evictions_leave_renters/

More reddit with talk of housing. Was downvoted to 0 but some juicy conversation/speculation in there. https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/9g6srm/sellers_market/

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-09-17 07:56:31

Sounds like the market is constipated.

 
Comment by AlbertoMigranto
2018-09-17 08:41:00

Shortage? Globalists will import millions of foreigners to increase demand and continue to prop up the housing bubble

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-09-17 09:58:58

Ebola!

Hammond, OR Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Failing China Economy Slams West Coast

https://www.movoto.com/hammond-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 11:26:39

They will try but the November elections will determine whether they can frustrate Trump’s attempts to reduce immigration both legal and illegal.

Comment by Big V
2018-09-17 17:53:05

Immigrants are poor, Albuquerque Dumb.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 18:12:22

And if we let too many in all but a few thousand Americans will be poorer

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 18:20:05

Then all

 
 
 
 
Comment by Doom
2018-10-11 09:48:45

North Scootsdale luxury is not anywhere near healthy.
Remodel home is a RE agent excuse why they can’t sell it. Many have priced adjust, nobody is looking but investors who of course are in for the kill?

 
 
Comment by JAMESJIM
2018-09-17 07:27:47

I’m in Santa Monica, for sale signs on every corner, counted 14 at one intersection. Wife wants to move spring 2019, hope we see a 10% correction by then, otherwise i’d be jumping strait into the fire.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-09-17 08:00:27

Lots of yard signs are visible in upscale parts of San Diego as well. So far Ebola seems to have not yet hit less wealthy areas.

 
 
Comment by b
2018-09-17 07:53:52

DFW area:
Companies like Toyota, Chase, Liberty Mutual, etc were moving significant amount of employees into the Plano/Frisco are.

OK should we guess that the housing speculation perhaps happened when they made announcements and were building their new office complexes. I mentioned before that my uber driver was going to buy a second home in Frisco to rent out and then sell.

I guess it is human nature to try to win big and quickly - whats the difference between a casino in Vegas and housing. See Vancouver

“But some Dallas-area residential districts saw marked declines in home buying last month. Real estate agents say the overall numbers understate the housing sector cool down. Sales last month were down almost 31 percent in Far North Dallas. They dropped 24 percent from August 2017 totals in Allen, and were off 21 percent in Coppell. Plano had a 16 percent year-over-year sales decline and sales were down more than 11 percent in Richardson and about 9 percent lower in Frisco.”

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-09-17 08:32:38

“… whats the difference between a casino in Vegas and housing.”

Casinos are for people who are bad at math. Housing manias are for people who are bad at history.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 13:51:31

Or perhaps housing manias are for people who are bad at both history and math.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-09-17 08:02:57

“…you probably should have sold one last summer if you wanted a line of potential buyers at your front door.”

There’s never been a better time to sell…than last summer.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-09-17 08:04:46

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by qt
2018-09-17 09:56:13

I bet last summers realtors were telling clients…NOW is the best time to buy!

Comment by near_seattle
2018-09-17 10:29:18

Realtor acquaintance of ours was. Still is.

Oh, those houses with “new prices”? Those were overpriced to begin with, according to her. The part she’s ignoring is the rate of change. More and more houses are lowering prices.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-09-17 10:43:49

The part she’s ignoring is the rate of change.

Few people mentally process derivatives, especially 2nd or higher, unless it’s actually changing the forces on their body.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2018-09-17 08:04:52

Is it safe to assume that trade war fears have blown over?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 11:28:17

Not if you live in China.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 11:37:37

Today the Chinese are threatening the supply chain. Yea that will really work. Go a head do not allow key components from leaving China and see how long it will take for everyone to move production out of China to more reliable producers. China you lost to Trump, time to cut your loses and settle. The terms will only be worse after the election.

Comment by Big V
2018-09-17 18:03:47

I’m surprised you’re willing to admit that China lost.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 18:10:20

Which shows you were not intelligent enough to understand what I was saying which was China was and is a real economic and military threat. All you seem capable of is engaging in ad hominem attacks. Albuquerque dumb, my God are you in fifth grade?

 
Comment by Big V
2018-09-17 22:29:38

They pay you to lie on a forum where everyone remembers what you had been saying for years on end.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-09-18 06:48:03

Part of mania is not exactly remembering it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-17 08:13:11

Gilroy, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Santa Clara County Housing Market Implodes

https://www.movoto.com/gilroy-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-09-17 08:26:23

We are unmasking the Deep State. Here’s why:

https://www.projectveritas.com/2018/09/14/unmasking-the-deep-state-manifesto/

Better just ignore this, and go read some real journalists articles quoting anonymous sources such as “a source familiar with his thinking” (this is what the Washington Post and the New York Times consider real journalism).

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 12:04:03

The news media really is the propaganda instrument of the deep state globalists. While just checking on North Carolina out of concern I came across some interesting data on the National Weather Service site. You can check river gauges throughout the country. So I went to the North Carolina rivers and was expecting to see almost uniformly high water based on the news reports. Instead out the 888 gauges in the state only 18 are showing major flooding, 18 moderate flooding and 32 minor flooding. All the major flooding is around Fayetteville. With almost 20 deaths this is certainly a severe tragedy but there does seem to be an attempt to hype the magnitude of the storm to make it seem unusual to feed the AGW hype. Not all the gauges are working but 578 are reporting no flooding and 19 are reporting near flooding, I will add. Many of the ones not reporting are near no flooding gauges so it does not appear a case of the storm knocking out the rest of the gauges.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-09-17 12:21:25

I’ve been in S Carolina the whole time. The exaggeration and hysteria on the “news” was incredible.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-09-17 17:58:25

Flood situations do tend to foster a MSM myopic focus on low-lying areas. This is where the water flows, and it is flowing water that boosts ratings. High-and-dry is beyond boring.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 14:51:17

One minor correction 888 gauges came up when I typed in North Carolina but some are not in North Carolina just adjacent to it and considered in the flood area. Latest numbers show major flooding 20, moderate flooding 15 and minor flooding 34 and the storm and all the heavy rains have left the area. Probably 95 per cent or more of the area is showing no rain.

 
Comment by hunkydory
2018-09-17 14:56:15

I’ve been looking at rainfall maps myself. Paint a very different picture from the hype the MSM pushes.

 
 
 
Comment by b
2018-09-17 08:52:36

Yet some stuff is still going up. When will this crack in Toronto.

“The price of a typical condo in Toronto hit a new record. TREB reported a benchmark price of $505,500 in August, up 9.94% from the year before. The City of Toronto condo benchmark reached $533,600, up 11.6% from last year. The gains show an interesting change in the pattern of prices.”

Comment by Big V
2018-09-17 18:08:11

That’s incredibly annoying. Here I thought Canada was going down. Vancouver is pooping, though, right?

Comment by Big V
2018-09-17 18:09:42

I have some typos in that sentence.

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-09-17 09:06:48

Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As California Housing Bust Expands

https://www.movoto.com/santa-rosa-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by qt
2018-09-17 10:03:08

“So what’s the takeaway from all this? D-FW still has a good home sales market, but not as robust as last year. That’s good news if you are trying to buy a house in the area.”

For realtors, is there any bad time to buy a house?

Again, my wife’s cousins brought 4 investment properties last summer in this area. Is he schlonged?? My wife’s family keeps saying how successful he is, just got married, graduated 3-4 years ago. Now he owned 4 properties… of course we are much older, 2 kids, but are still renting… She keeps asking me to buy, buy now, yah da da

Comment by txchick57
2018-09-18 12:20:32

Yes, he is schlonged, if the “investment properties” are north of LBJ or west of I-30

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-09-17 10:11:58

It’s an economic miracle! It’s Venezuela!

“40% Of Venezuela Stores Go Bust After 3,000% Minimum Wage Hike”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-16/40-venezuela-stores-go-bust-after-3000-minimum-wage-hike

Comment by b
2018-09-17 11:03:39

dont worry - NYC will absolutely prosper by increasing the min wage to $25.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2018-09-17 11:31:11

We need to pass a law making everyone rich. I am sure the Democrats will have it in their 2020 platform.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-09-17 21:48:43

If all the Yellen Bux floating around were distributed just a tad more evenly, we all WOULD be rich.

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Comment by txchick57
2018-09-18 12:06:26

Dallas is a shit hole occupied with incredibly greedy sellers, flippers, scam artists and just plain idiots. I will truly enjoy watching this bubble crash here. My neighborhood - white hot in 2015-2017, is now cold as ice. You can’t give them away - at least at the prices these jerks expect. I love it.

Comment by txchick57
2018-09-18 12:17:53

I think the employment market is also topping out. I get 3-4 calls a week from headhunters and I have not worked at a law firm in a very long time. I’d rather have my eyes plucked out than drag into some crappy office every day. The layoffs will be epic.

Comment by rms
2018-09-18 20:03:52

“I’d rather have my eyes plucked out than drag into some crappy office every day.”

Indeed.

 
 
 
Comment by Doom
2018-10-11 09:56:43

I don’t have to tell anybody in the know. The major crash is here now, houses are grossly over priced, the panic is that RE agents tell sellers it is your house, they never tell them the markert is crashing?

 
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