February 17, 2006

The Great Condo Sell-Off Has Begun!: NYT

The New York Times has this report on condo mania. “When developers in Arlington, Va., threw a party 18 months ago to showcase plans for Clarendon 1021, a condominium development that had not yet been built, 3,600 prospective buyers stood in line just for the chance to book reservations to bid on the apartments. Now, less than a year after the building opened, speculators in this and other buildings are putting dozens of units on the market at the same time, causing asking prices and profits to slip.”

“Of 23 investors who sold since Clarendon 1021 opened last summer, the three most recent sellers actually lost money. ‘I hate it when people say prices can never go down,’ said Frank LLosa, a resident of the building. ‘The speculators make the profits more volatile.’”

“The Great Condo Gold Rush is fading from memory and the Great Sell-Off has begun. ‘Money Down! Motivated Seller, Want More? Just Ask!’ screamed an investor’s online advertisement last week for a one-bedroom apartment in Clarendon 1021 that had never been lived in.”

“As more speculators look to cash out in recently hot condo markets around the country, some economists say they could put even more downward pressure on prices in those buildings where for-sale listings are swelling. In Miami, at the Jade Residences, more than 20 percent of the building’s 352 units are on the market. In San Diego, about a third of the 96 units in the Alicante, a condominium that opened last fall, are listed for sale and sellers are already starting to cut asking prices.”

“In Donald Trump’s luxury condos at 120 Riverside Boulevard in Manhattan, owners of more than one-fifth of the building’s 250 units are currently marketing their apartments. With so much inventory, said Ilan Bracha, ‘the buyers are coming in, checking the best views and then they negotiate. This is the reality.’”

“This is not the first time that condo markets have been influenced by investors. In the late 1980’s, developers converted thousands of condo units in the Northeast and many of them were bought by speculators, said Karl E. Case, an economist at Wellesley College. Many of those investors, he said, ended up losing money when they sold in the early 1990’s. ‘It was ugly,’ he said.”

“A little over a year ago, Shabana Qureshi, a 26-year-old engineer, put deposits down on two condos in Arlington. ‘My friends were making hundreds of thousands of dollars off of properties,’ Ms. Qureshi said.But having taken a pay cut with a new job, she can no longer afford the mortgage and maintenance fees, which are almost $3,000 a month.”

“Having scrimped to buy at what she said she believed was the peak of the market, Ms. Qureshi said she regretted her investments. If she had to do it all over again, she said she would have spent more money on travel and a new car. ‘I would have been more carefree and invested once I had a family,’ she said.”




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109 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-02-17 06:30:50

Thanks to the readers who sent this in.

 
 
Comment by george_ie
2006-02-17 06:33:56

“Having scrimped to buy at what she said she believed was the peak of the market, Ms. Qureshi said she regretted her investments. If she had to do it all over again, she said she would have spent more money on travel and a new car. ‘I would have been more carefree and invested once I had a family,’ she said.”

Some lucky guy is going to marry this girl… and inherit her “investments”… and no-doubt the $40k in student loans, and $8k in CC debt, that she’s carrying around.

What a catch.

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 06:50:01

… and the person who sold her those condos must be having a great time right now. There’s a bag holder born every day.

 
Comment by ockurt
2006-02-17 07:46:15

Ha ha that 8k in CC debt will be 80k if she tries to hold on to those properties too long…

 
Comment by Scott
2006-02-17 07:51:08

What’s sad is her comments on what she would have spent her money had she to do it over again: cars and travel! I don’t know what she paid for her condos, or what she’s going to sell them for, but I’d bet that her loss, percentage-wise, is less than you lose on a car in the first two years (~40%).

And her idea of waiting to “invest” when she has a family. So she’d rather have a husband to stress out with and a couple of hungry kids when she makes her financial blunders, rather than no one but herself? As you said, this lady sounds like a real catch!

Comment by annata
2006-02-17 09:14:26

Percentage loss is irrelevant for someone in her situation. What she cares about is real total dollars loss.

A 10% loss in an $300K investment condo with 5% down is a real $15000 loss if she has to sell (not including transaction costs).

40% depreciation on a car she can still drive is a zero-dollar loss.

 
 
Comment by TXchick57
2006-02-17 08:00:15

Her “friends” were just bullshitting her. I doubt any of them has retained a dime of “profit.”

 
Comment by rudekarl
2006-02-17 08:10:06

If she had it to do all over again, she would have just blown every dime she has on some other trash. “I love being broke and probably will never, ever have two nickels to my name for the remainder of my life,” said a carefree Shabana Qureshi.

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 08:34:39

“A little over a year ago, John Smith, a shrewd accountant, paid 475,000 in cash for two condos in Arlington. ‘The bankrupt seller, Shabana Qureshi, once boasted that her friends were making hundreds of thousands of dollars off of properties,’ Mr. Smith said. Having been laid off, Qureshi could no longer afford the mortgage and maintenance fees, which were almost $3,000 a month.” Says Qureshi, ‘I am very glad this nightmare has finally ended. Thankfully, I met my fiance last month and we’ll be married very soon. He is a very kind and generous man.’

Comment by ockurt
2006-02-17 08:38:16

u guys are 2 funny :)

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Comment by Lato1394
2006-02-17 06:40:33

I can see the stories on 20/20 and 60 minutes featuring all the speculators on tv telling there sob stories about how “its not fair we were lied to”, “we stood in line for 3 days to buy our 6 condos and now no one wants to buy them from us, its just not fair I don’t know what we are going to do”, “we bought these condos and we want to sell them for a profit but no one is giving us a fair offer its just not right its not fair”.

Comment by WillM
2006-02-17 08:15:58

“we bought these condos and we want to sell them for a profit but no one is giving us a fair offer its just not right its not fair”.

And the only “fair” price is 20% more than what I paid 6 months ago. Even us speculators have bills to pay.

 
 
Comment by deb
2006-02-17 06:41:10

And anyone who thinks that discounted condo prices won’t have any effect on SFR prices is living in their own little dream world….

 
Comment by knockwurst
2006-02-17 06:41:30

Yeah, and of course, once you have a family it’s so much easier to scrimp, save, and invest. Not like when you’re single and have all those expenses.

 
Comment by TheGuru
2006-02-17 06:45:04

This girl is an idiot — you don’t wait to start investing until you have a family. Gotta be able to bring something to the table so that the family has margin for error. Moron — I hope she attempts bankruptcy and her application is rejected. “My friends did it: so it must be a good idea. She is a worthless group think sheep heading for slaughter.

 
Comment by The Lingus
2006-02-17 06:46:51

“she said she would have spent more money on travel and a new car.”
[grimmace] You’ve got to be shittin’ me. Where do they find idiots like this?

Comment by San Mateo, Bitch!
2006-02-17 07:11:43

If she was prudent it wouldn’t be good reading…

 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 06:50:16

The story about clarnedon1021 gets worse. There are condo developments to the west and east of this one that are in construction phase. In a year or two the glut of condos should be amazing.

Comment by Bob R
2006-02-17 10:14:35

You got that right! Miami, San Diego….the story is the same. A huge wave of condos is coming to glut the market. Anyone who bought a unit in these bubble cities in the last 6 months is going to take a bath.

Comment by sf jack
2006-02-17 10:39:59

I say: “Downtown San Diego condos for everybody but feepness!”

 
 
 
Comment by Lato1394
2006-02-17 06:50:37

They just announced in the Orlando Sentinal there is another condo conversion project in Metrowest and a brand new condo being planned for downtown.
Even most realtors in Orlando will tell you the market for condos is saturated. We have had around 20% of apartments here go condo in the past 2 years. Now we are seeing speculators trying to sell condos even before the developers sell out. On top of that inventory glut, they are building and converting more and more.

Me, I am waiting for the condos in downtown Orlando, a lot of those were sold prior to buildings worrying about investors buying up 70% of the building. Now they are nearing completion, should be some good steals… I mean deals in the next 6-12 months.

Comment by KirkH
2006-02-17 08:00:04

Prices are so horrendously high is some places that developers can make a profit even if prices drop a few hundred thousand dollars depending on when they bought the land. They can lowball homeowners who can’t afford to lower their prices.

Prices could drop so fast that nobody will want to sell their home unless they’re forced to.

 
Comment by ilsm
2006-02-17 09:34:50

The problem with busted condo developments is the developers are usually gone and the association is left with lawyer fees trying to get any defective due to developed financials losses fixed.

Be very careful on these busted projects, make sure the association is solvent or you just get a less than hugely expensive disaster.

The real problem is they need a new set of suckers thinking they are getting a deal, when all you get is headaches.

 
 
Comment by David
2006-02-17 06:53:55

There certainly is a condo glut in the Washington, DC metro area especially in high priced newer buildings.

David
Bubble Meter Blog

 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 06:59:12

Check out this one and a half year old article from the Washington Post that the condo clarendon1021 site actually has a link to

It’s titled “Who’s buying them?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1038-2004Oct1.html

This blurb is classic herd mentality:
“The most recent condo preview Schmitt attended, which the developer said drew almost 4,000 people in the pouring rain, convinced her she should jump into the market again. You could get an appointment to buy only if you attended the party, she said.”

Comment by John in VA
2006-02-17 07:31:55

A rational person would have said that seeing 4000 people standing in the pouring rain would have convinced her to run like hell.

 
Comment by bacon
2006-02-17 09:51:40

that article answered my biggest question back then: “who could afford to live there?!” and now that i know, i’m glad i couldn’t afford those outrageous prices, those people sounded really lame. yeah, lady, there’s a reason you’re 40, single and live w/ 2 cats. definitely not the hip urban chic i envision.

 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 07:04:11

What’s weird about clarendon1021 is the largest investor is the Carlyle Group. That’s the private equity firm George Bush Sr, Saudi’s and other powerful people have connections to.

It makes me wonder why so many leaders are conditions to manifest that allow Americans to get into so much debt?

 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-02-17 07:05:28

“In San Diego, about a third of the 96 units in the Alicante, a condominium that opened last fall, are listed for sale and sellers are already starting to cut asking prices.”

GMAFB. Already? 30 units and there isn’t a clue in there someplace? What person in ther right mind would buy into a building with 30% vaccancy, record high prices, likelyhood of multiple defaults causing HOAs to possibly double, no idea of who a third of your neighbors will be ecept that they are the type to rent from FF (F@cked Floppers) and no hope of ever seeing any appreciation at all? If you buy condo #30 then you are assured the next 29 will pay progressively less. totally toxic.

Comment by markmax33
2006-02-17 07:35:48

30% Vacancy in San Diego means the building is full! Has anyone drove around at night and looked at these highrise buildings? I work right next a the 2 Grande buildings and is pretty easy to count the lights on at 8 pm every night. During the day most of the blinds are pulled down. I estimate that some of them are ATLEAST 70% vacant. They may not all be on the market….yet. Guess what? They are just now starting to build the LARGEST condo highrise in San Diego, the Electra. They are trying to charge $1000/sq ft. What a deal!

Comment by annata
2006-02-17 09:18:24

Actually, if the vacancy rate is high enough, not only does it become unattractive to potential buyers, but it may become difficult to finance. Fannie-Mae loans typically require some percentage of units to be already occupied.

 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 09:46:57

Flippers got a better rate on their loans by BSing that the unit would be owner-occupied. What we are seeing now is the reality of the rubber meeting the road– Dark high-rises.

 
Comment by sf jack
2006-02-17 10:48:25

One thing to consider about condo towers with “no lights on” is that some owners (of course not all, nor even a majority I suppose) could be seasonal residents. Though I’d have to say that they should be living in them this time of year (winter - coming to SD from the colder climes).

Just my observation and anecdotal evidence, but I have seen this phenomena in the new condo towers in the SOMA neighborhood in SF, near the ballpark. They seem quite empty during the cool summer fog season, somewhat more busy/occupied in the spring and fall, and quite busy in the winter, judging by restaurants and parking availability in the area.

I call it the “winter invasion of the bluehairs.” They are nowhere to be seen down there in the South Beach area near the ballpark in summertime.

 
 
Comment by LowTenant
2006-02-17 08:57:16

“GMAFB. Already? 30 units and there isn’t a clue in there someplace? What person in ther right mind would buy into a building with 30% vaccancy, record high prices, likelyhood of multiple defaults causing HOAs to possibly double, no idea of who a third of your neighbors will be ecept that they are the type to rent from FF (F@cked Floppers) and no hope of ever seeing any appreciation at all? If you buy condo #30 then you are assured the next 29 will pay progressively less. totally toxic. “

A genuine real estate investor would see this as an opportunity. Meet with all 30 panicking sellers, offer 50% of their asking price, and pull the “prisoner’s dilemma” — say, “a couple of you are going to cave at some point, and then the comps will take the rest of you down. I’ll buy all 30 right now and save you the misery.” Soon that kind of thing will be big business and some investors are going to get mighty rich doing it.

Comment by Robert Cote
2006-02-17 09:25:31

They can’t take 50%. They don’t have that much money to bring to the table. This isn’t 2004 when you could turn in the keys.

 
 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-02-17 07:09:01

arlingtonva,

Nobody forced them to “invest”. They did it out of their own greed and stupidity.

 
Comment by va_investor
2006-02-17 07:09:06

All of those 3,000 or so people were not investors. Your kidding yourselves if you think that the owner-occupants weren’t giddy at the prospect of their good fortune. I wonder what percentage were investors (long term), flippers, and residents.

They ALL thought that they would make a ton of money. Why put all the blame on flippers? Everyone was speculating. People speculate everyday in many aspects of life.

Friends of the Developer and sales staff got first crack at these units. Prices rose weekly or daily by 25k to 75k. If you were one of the first ones in, you may be OK. Otherwise you are screwed.

 
Comment by bacon
2006-02-17 07:10:06

what’s the difference between an accountant and an engineer? an accountant knows he’s not an engineer.

Comment by TXchick57
2006-02-17 08:08:05

Engineers are some of the easiest people to take money from in the stock market tool

Comment by destinsm
2006-02-17 08:12:05

Hey now, be nice to the engineers who frequent this board :)

Comment by greenlander
2006-02-17 08:38:11

I’m an engineer. I’ve been waiting for the bubble to pop all this time, but many of my colleagues aren’t. Some of them are so stupid it makes my head hurt just to hear their stores. I can’t figure out how they could have taken so much math and still not be able to see what’s coming…

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Comment by destinsm
2006-02-17 08:49:47

greenlander,
I think the same thing everyday… constantly here of fellow young engineers saying they are tired of “throwing money away for rent” and they are lining up to pay twice as much to what is guaranteed to be a non inflating maybe even a deflating asset over the next 5+ years…

Did they not take the same math courses and get the same problem solving skills that I thought was necessary to be an engineer??? :)

I think overall it proves no matter the intelligence or area of expertise, if you follow the herd and dont think independently, your bound to make some very interesting decisions throughout your life…

 
Comment by mo
2006-02-17 18:56:41

I’m an engineer and I dropped it all to become a full time investor. I think the stereotypical engineer jokes are true, but still there are contrarian common-sense people like me, there are many of them. And it’s not about housing or stocks or anything….it’s simpler: the very fact that we dropped engineering we the first contrarian move we did :D

 
 
 
Comment by Uncle_Git
2006-02-17 10:12:02

I’m an engineer and I’m going nowhere near this mess…

I watched the .com bust from the sidelines and it taught me some good lessons - the most important of which being, run the fundamentals - if they don’t add up, sooner or latere economic gravity will fix the situation for you.

Comment by sf jack
2006-02-17 10:52:23

Re: “economic gravity will fix the situation for you”

So true.

The dotcom craziness - it was just a matter of waiting it out. Life did return to normal for a while in SF. Then housing took off - it will return to normal again someday.

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Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 08:49:44

Hey Guys, Go easy on us Engineers.

Comment by rent2home
2006-02-17 10:44:55

Hi All,

I am an engineer, probably took the right math course and did my homework. Well, I did my homework for deciding to buy or not as well. Guess what, lost to “financial engineering” of the mortgage btoker.

Even three years back It did not make sense to buy a home in Southern California (Orange County). However I think financially would have been better off!! The 400K house has become 700k+

It will take rest of life to save 300K aftertax.

Any comments?

Comment by sf jack
2006-02-17 11:01:32

Would you be willing to have sold it 3 months ago for $700K?

If not, this story isn’t over yet.

Among other issues/details, some might say that place will go for $550K in the not too distant future. How would you have financed it? No down, 10%, 20% down? What would you have done with the $80K in the meantime? What has or will, if you refinance to a fixed, your rent payment have been/be vs. the mortgage? And in the ensuing five years, on a possibly declining asset, no less.

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Comment by va_investor
2006-02-17 12:57:46

Oh come on SF Jack. Can’t you conceed that this guy is in good shape. If only we all could get a do-over every few years.

 
Comment by sf jack
2006-02-17 13:47:32

He’s in great shape, yes!

But the story’s not over, just like I said.

 
Comment by lmg
2006-02-17 19:53:36

There’s an old song from Kenny Roger’s “The Gambler”, that says the following:

“…You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done….”

I would think that being ahead in the ‘housing game’ consists of lots of cash (or cash equivalents, bonds, stock etc.) in the bank, and comparable housing to what you’ve sold.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-02-17 09:22:57

Accountants know they are not good enough to be engineers, that’s why they are accountants. Engineers are accountants and scientists and managers and just about everything else.

Comment by Betamax
2006-02-17 11:57:22

easy, big fella.

 
 
Comment by circling_vulture
2006-02-17 17:32:14

i’m an engineer as well. and i have to admit being around other engineers for about 10 years now, they are some of the most gullible and sheepish people i’ve ever seen.

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-02-17 20:27:05

I work with a bunch of propeller head engineers. Nice people, no social grace and that can either translate to anti-social behavior or very conformist social behavior.

 
 
Comment by lato1394
2006-02-17 07:11:33

arlingtonva: Carlyle Group might have bought dozens of the condos for corporate housing, sometimes big companies do that. Especially Carlyle since they are such a big defense contractor, they have people in Washington all the time.

Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 07:16:25

You may know the Carly group has ex Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State and Prime Ministers as members.

My point is it seems from Greenspan to Big Media to the Carlyle Group, most leaders don’t seem to care that Americans are taking on big debt. And every knows just like a company, the less debt you have the more competitive.

How are Americans going to compete with these 800,000 dollar houses and 500,000 condos?

Comment by Scott
2006-02-17 07:55:34

How are Americans going to compete with these 800,000 dollar houses and 500,000 condos?

Quite simply - HELOCs! See, it’s all about leverage and making your house work for you. See, your house is your best investment, I mean, it’s even a tax break!

 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-02-17 08:06:02

“If U.S. citizens ever allow private banks to issue their currency, first by inflation, then deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the peopleo of their property until one day their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered”. Thomas Jefferson, 1809. during debate over the recharter of the 2nd U.S. bank.
“Give me control over the issuance of a country’s currency and I care not who makes her laws” O. Rothschild. (17??)
The Federal Reserve is a PRIVATE banking cartel, Rothschild family being one of the owners.
The question about our leaders encouraging this massive uptake of debt is interesting. Que Bono? Who benefits? Who is going to end up with the properties and the indentured servants when this all comes crashing down?

Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 08:30:24

America needs another Thomas Jefferson

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Comment by circling_vulture
2006-02-17 17:47:00

auger-inn - excellent comment. i have said similar many times on this blog. i agree that this whole bubble fiasco is not just “random”, it’s a scam. i don’t claim to be an expert on the matter - but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that banks do NOT just give away loans to anyone with a pulse. and the gov’t simply can’t be ignorant of the fact that the loans they are backing are worthless.

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Comment by KirkH
2006-02-17 08:09:08

Easy, we’ll work like slaves to avoid bankruptcy. Sorta like a white-collar sweatshop .

Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 08:27:47

we’ll work like slaves to avoid bankruptcy
I won’t. Life is too short. And I’m prepared for any social ramifications that may entail. I’m doing it my way ;)

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Comment by hoz
2006-02-17 08:10:39

from Yahoo this morning:
http://tinyurl.com/cthar
Maybe I’m paranoid. But I’m not alone. As one reader e-mailed me, “Whether we like it or not, our government has ultimate control over our financial future. In the coming years, the government will be grasping at any source of cash that they can get their hands on…. I think people sense this, consciously or subconsciously, and figure that they might as well spend now. I do worry that all my hard work and effort in being frugal will be confiscated by the government, which would make me feel foolish for not adopting a ’spend until you drop’ attitude all along.”

Comment by rent2home
2006-02-17 11:08:13

The article offer some voice of sanity. It is dangerous for all, the savers as well.
The governement is contrlled by majority voters in a democratic system. So in a democratic system a Government is Bound to BAIL OUT the majority. Fair or Unfair.

I can see what happened in the last five six years. By financial engineering the government has pumped money into the economy by allowing the real estate asset price to boom. More money into a homeoweners hand, more “wealth effect”. So those home owner and opportunistic speculators enjoyed a good life, vacation , SUV, a boat, a second home etc. etc.

The KEY here, I do not hear people on the street complain about risising housing price!! I an not imagine there will be Ballot initiative to “reduce” housing price and make it affordable.

WHY? Because 69% of household in usa owns a home. They are the majority! The rest of us who do not own, not only we are Minority, we are also like to be without as much money. The clout that this group has is of even less than 31% weightage.

When the housing prices decline by unstoppable rule of supply and demand, that is the time we will hear COMPLAIN about housing price coming down, why the consuumers need be bailed out.

And yes, the government is bound to listen, and will do their best to make the hosuing price decline as mild as possible ( at a level, in a sustainable way)

So I expect the “value” of my savings $$ to go down…

I hope I am wrong!

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Comment by Scott
2006-02-17 12:40:07

The only problem with bailing out the majority is that the funds have to come from the minority. And if the minority has the funds to bail out the majority then we’re in a pretty dangerous place, economically and socially.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-02-17 07:12:30

What person in ther right mind would buy into a building with 30% vaccancy?

If a building has high vacancies, isn’t it an opportunity for the government to offer subsidized housing? And if that’s the case, usually people who need subsidized housing have some issues that would make them less than ideal neighbors ;)

Comment by novasold
2006-02-17 08:46:52

arlingtonva:

Exactly! That’s what I was thinking.

What I worry about is when all of the subprime FBs hit the street. Think about all of the areas in NoVa with packed flop houses. If many of those become FBs, where are these people going to go? Next think of, as arlingtonva mentioned, all of the unoccupied condo conversions. What are we going to get? Projects in NoVa. Be careful where you buy, even if prices fall.

novasold

 
Comment by mo
2006-02-17 19:14:02

those losing their entire net worth in real estate will need subsidized housing. so they don’t even have to move, i guess..

I guess all of the poor people in harlem who were forced out of their neighborhoods for the greedy condo projects will be able to move back, and have pretty nice homes too.

 
 
Comment by PW
2006-02-17 07:26:14

the same thing is happening on the left coast in orange county’s only highrise condo development Marquee Park Place which contains 232 units. The first builder closings started taking place last month (jan 2006). There are already 28 units back on the market. most appear to be vacant and ready to flip.

Comment by va_investor
2006-02-17 07:34:54

Why anyone would even close is beyond me. Most of these contracts limit damages to loss of your deposit. Run, don’t walk, away for that deposit.

Comment by va_investor
2006-02-17 07:39:36

Throwing good money after bad is just plain stupid.

Comment by va_investor
2006-02-17 07:47:22

A Fairfax County Judge (Northern VA>) just threw out one of these builder contracts as unenforceable because it was so one-sided for the builder as to be “unconscionable”. Purchaser got deposit back.

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Comment by million
2006-02-17 07:33:00

if you didn’t click the link, there’s a little more detail into her plight:
Last week, she put the condo, for which she paid $438,000, on the market for $470,000 and plans to move into the other condo she bought in Arlington. She is selling the Clarendon condo herself to save on the real estate commission. But even if she gets her asking price, she figures she will break even after closing costs.

maybe she’ll get her asking price… and maybe i’m a chinese fighter pilot.

Comment by george_ie
2006-02-17 07:45:13

She figures she’ll break even?

LOL

Even if she sells it herself for full asking price, there’s no way she can turn a profit on that deal, once you factor in her original closing costs, carrying costs, taxes and utilities.

Not a chance.

 
Comment by rudekarl
2006-02-17 08:16:19

Well, are you a chinese fighter pilot?

 
Comment by Rich
2006-02-17 10:08:18

He’s not Chinese,

Duh!!! Google blocks access to this site at the request of China’s government.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-02-17 11:45:51

That’s funny. Good one

 
 
 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 07:46:00

From the same story:

A year and a half ago, Erez Abkzer, who owns a window treatment business in New York, signed a contract for a one-bedroom condo facing the river in 120 Riverside for $850,000. “The market was booming and I decided to jump on that wagon,” he said.

He closed on the apartment last month and immediately listed it for $1.1 million. He said he would rent the apartment rather than lower his price. “Otherwise it would all be in vain,” Mr. Abkzer said. “I won’t make money on it.”

Good luck Erez, you’ll never see that 1.1M.

Comment by rudekarl
2006-02-17 08:18:06

Jumping on the wagon - he’ll be off the wagon, soon. Might I suggest a nice 40 ounce bottle of malt liquor Mr. Abkzer?

 
 
Comment by AmazedRenter
2006-02-17 08:16:03

“Of 23 investors who sold since Clarendon 1021 opened last summer, the three most recent sellers actually lost money. ‘I hate it when people say prices can never go down,’ said Frank LLosa, a resident of the building.

‘The speculators make the profits more volatile.’

hahahahahahahaha. Bummer huh Frank, that you don’t get to be the only speculator. Priceless how Frank accuses other of speculation while referring to his own “profits” on a condo less than 1 yr old, all in the same sentence.

Comment by million
2006-02-17 08:44:50

Frank’s a realtor, actually one of the very very few to go on record w/ a less-than-rosey picture…

from WSJ September 15, 2004 - Frank Borges LLosa, a real-estate agent who works in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, said he warns his clients they can’t bank on continued price gains. “Do I think it is a bubble? I don’t know,” he said, “but I’m sick of agents pretending like it is an impossibility.” He is giving his customers T-shirts that read, “I bought a house during the ‘04 bubble and all I got was this lousy T-shirt!”

 
 
Comment by Cody
2006-02-17 08:16:50

What I love most about this article is the implicit assumption that there is a huge group of renters out there just dying to rent these ‘investments’. “If I can’t get my preferred asking price, I’ll just rent it out” and so on. Where are all these renters coming from? And if you can afford to pay rent on a 400k+ condo, wouldn’t you already own - or be too smart to rent from these losers?

Every single article about speculators includes that “I’ll just rent it out” caveat. Yeah, right. There are so many reliable tenants with good jobs and good credit waiting around to rent your place….

Comment by TXchick57
2006-02-17 09:08:42

No kidding. I’m a renter with a good income and credit and am a very hard bargainer. You want me to rent your place, there’s a bunch of rules. Among them is you leave me the hell alone. No selling, no appraisers, no real estate agents in while I am there. No big deposits. You don’t like it, tough, there’s a million other idiots with places to rent.

 
 
Comment by lato1394
2006-02-17 08:19:28

Scott: Are you a mortgage broker or just another sucker?

Taking out equity is not “making your house work for you” its more like nailing your own financial casket shut… We are faced with the very real possibility of price declines or stagnation. You also need to realize when you take out HELOCS and other loan products you have to pay that money back with interest and fees!!!!

As far as tax breaks that was a good idea, but now in most hot housing markets there is such a difference in rent vs own that the tax breaks are not even worth it. Down here in Florida I can rent for 1/2 even 1/3 of what it would cost to own.

Comment by hoz
2006-02-17 08:46:24

I thought “Scott” was being facetious! After having heard that BS for the last few years - it was nice to read a comment that poked fun at the sheeple stupidity. I hope “Scott” was being facetious.

 
Comment by homelessguy
2006-02-17 08:56:09

lato,

Switch your sarcasm detector to the “on” position - Scott’s comment was tongue-in -cheek (at least, I hope so)!

 
 
Comment by safe_as_apartments
2006-02-17 08:23:14

Ha! The title of this article made me think of the whole sell-off taking place to “The Flight of the Valkyries”.

Comment by safe_as_apartments
2006-02-17 08:23:44

title of this blog, i meant

 
 
Comment by cereal
2006-02-17 08:37:55

so a drop in condo prices will not effect the sfr market? this is flawed logic. given the choice between a 1250 sf new condo at 250k or a 1250 sf typical sfr at 750k guess where i’m going tp spend my money. the demand for sfr’s will drop, and that creates downward price pressure.

why do we have to clarify such basic things whenever these idiots speak? it’s embarrassing.

 
Comment by David Dougherty
2006-02-17 08:53:41

This is just another example of the greater fool theory. Ms. Qureshi thought that she could find a greater fool to flip her two condos to after a couple of years. As it turns out, there are no greater fools left, which makes her the greatest fool. It is hard to feel sorry for her since it appears that the only way someone like this learns their lesson is through financial agony. Perhaps because of all this she will remain poor the rest of her life and thus be unable to makes such rash financial decisions. I guess that she was hoping that she could flip her financial agony onto someone else and profit handsomely thereby.

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-02-17 08:59:44

Didn’t you hear the good news? Qureshi just announced her happy engagement today! :-)

 
Comment by Rick
2006-02-17 09:52:24

It’s a pyramid scheme - always to find a bigger idiot who will buy for more. People are greedy and blind becuase of money so they don’t see who is usually a winner in pyramide scheme games.

 
 
Comment by lato1394
2006-02-17 10:08:43

Hoz: I don’t think he was, unfortunately mortgage brokers are becoming more and more desperate to find lenders these days. Still trying to convince people to take out that equity and waste it on boats, cars, vacations and so on.

I remember the good old days, well 5 years ago when taking out a HELOC was a very difficult decision and typically reserved to pay for medical emergencies or other financial disasters. It was once the last resort to come up with cash in a bad situation. Almost embarassing to have taken out a 2nd mortgage on your home.

I saw one re-run of “the simpsons” (late 90’s) where Homer buys a computer and to finance it they run the deed to his home only to find he is on his fifth mortgage. Now it seems like people brag about taking out equity to buy that new Hummer H2, the new boat or other items that will actually depreciate in value significantly.

 
Comment by lato1394
2006-02-17 10:09:56

sorry,
meant leeds not lenders.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-02-17 11:54:48

*snicker* leads.

LOL I had to do that take it as humor not an attack.

 
 
Comment by Spykeeboi
2006-02-17 10:43:08

I meet Qureshis all the time. They live by mantras that someone else has put in their ears: “Real estate never goes down,” “What have I got to lose?” “Just do it.” They are absolutely incapable of critical thought. They have no idea what APR stands for. Their credit cards are charged monthly for gym memberships and email accounts that they haven’t used for years. Nathanael West’s Faye Greener in “The Day of the Locust” is the template for this kind. Qureshi’s next mantra will be “It’s all good,” and she’ll utter it repeatedly as she meets with a lawyer to file for bankruptcy.

Comment by bacon
2006-02-17 11:07:01

“Real estate never goes down” should be added to the Bad Idea Jeans skit from SNL along w/ such classics as: Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, “When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?”, and I thought about it, and even though it’s over, I’m going to tell my wife about the afffair.

 
Comment by Betamax
2006-02-17 12:14:50

“Real estate never goes down,” “What have I got to lose?” “Just do it.” They are absolutely incapable of critical thought.

Qureshi’s next mantra will be “It’s all good,”

Banker: “Sorry Ms. Quereshi, we’re going to have to foreclose.”

Quereshi: “It’s all good. As one door closes, another opens. What doesn’t kill us makes us stronger. In the places where you only see one set of footprints, that’s ’cause Jesus was carrying me. Pork, the other white meat.”

 
 
Comment by indiana jones
2006-02-17 11:28:34

Sometimes when I read these stories I have the feeling that I am looking at a caged animal in a zoo. There they are up for public display and all of us are going ‘oh’ and ‘ah’ about this and that. The animal, on the other hand, wants to be free, but there is no where to go.

 
Comment by Betamax
2006-02-17 12:16:14

here’s my fave quote from the article, not quoted on the main page:

Some brokers say that speculators have unrealistic profit expectations. “I think a lot of sellers are saying I should make X percent,” said Eve Thompson, an agent with Long & Foster in Fairfax, Va. “But your chances of being able to do that are as good as going to Oracle and telling them you want more for your stock.”

 
Comment by bendbear
2006-02-17 13:56:08

perhaps the best thing about this article is that it is today’s #1 most emailed article, beating out calcium study which can’t be easy since half of America takes calcium supplements

 
Comment by John Law
2006-02-17 14:30:22

A year and a half ago, Erez Abkzer, who owns a window treatment business in New York, signed a contract for a one-bedroom condo facing the river in 120 Riverside for $850,000. “The market was booming and I decided to jump on that wagon,” he said.

He closed on the apartment last month and immediately listed it for $1.1 million. He said he would rent the apartment rather than lower his price. “Otherwise it would all be in vain,” Mr. Abkzer said. “I won’t make money on it.”

dude is going to lose a lot of money not trying to lose money!

Comment by circling_vulture
2006-02-17 18:00:28

it’s called denial

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2006-02-17 14:59:07

Unfortunately, the online article doesn’t show a graphic that is shown in the print version. The graphic displays the number of condos “ready for move-in” in 2005 and 2006.

The highlights (city; units finished in 2005; units that will be finished in 2006), respectively:

Miami;18000;21000
SD;12000;11000
Chicago;8000;23000!!!!!
Ft. Laud;7500;16000
LV;7500;11000
Washington;7000;16000
NY;6000;11000
Boston;6000;6000
Palm Beach;5000;11000
Orlando;5000;20000!!!!!

Get ready for more and more articles like this.

By the way, the print version has a picture of Ms. Qureshi as well. I suspect she’d have no problem finding “generous” suitors……

Comment by dawnal
2006-02-17 22:13:35

If Miami finisihed 12,000 new condos in 2005 and expects to finish 18,000 in 2006, how do those numbers compare with actual new condos built in the past 5 years? I seem to remember that the 5 year number is well below 12,000 and clearly not near 18,000. The indigestion suggested is extraordinary. Developers will have to give them away…..

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-02-17 15:06:06

I hope that Ms. Quereshi is a good lay for her happy engagement, as she will be a big money loser. The dude has to get something for his money somewhere. Ciao’

 
Comment by foreclose_me
2006-02-17 21:43:40

Qureshi? They seem to be in the news today.

In Pakistan, Mohammed Yousaf Qureshi announced the bounty for killing a cartoonist to about 1,000 people outside the historic Mohabat Khan mosque in the northwestern city of Peshawar.

“This is a unanimous decision of by all imams of Islam that whoever insults the prophets deserves to be killed and whoever will take this insulting man to his end, will get this prize,” he said.

 
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