More Vegas, Arizona Condo Projects ‘Postponed’
Some housing bubble reports from the soutwestern US. “One high-rise condo project has halted construction pending new financing and another has closed its sales center, sources said Friday. Construction of Spanish View Towers in the southwest Las Vegas Valley stopped for two weeks and should resume sometime next week when the developer closes escrow on a new loan, David Berg of Prudential Americana said.”
“A skeleton construction crew remains on the 15-acre site doing small jobs. Liens that have been filed against the project should be released next week, Berg said. ‘There will be some major lawsuits for nonperformance,’ he said. ‘It’ll be names people will recognize.’”
“Meanwhile, Vegas 888, a high-rise condo tower planned for 10 acres at Flamingo Road and Valley View Boulevard, has closed its sales center, broker Bruce Hiatt said. The Vegas 888 site, purchased for about $50 million, is reportedly up for sale.”
The AZ Star Net. “Tucson’s condo conversion craze appears to be over, as the number of condos for sale has almost doubled over last year, and some developers have postponed plans to turn apartments into condominiums.”
“Last year, some condo sales had people waiting in line, even camping out overnight to buy multiple units. This year, there were plans for dozens of condo projects with most involving conversion of apartment complexes.”
“In January, Dino Paone, president of Paone Mortgage Corp., estimated more than 2,000 new units would become available this year for sale in the Tucson area. Now he believes that number has dropped to less than 1,000. He said he’s worked with three different developers who have postponed plans to build or renovate 600 units around town.”
“‘I would say that the temperature to convert condos has cooled,’ Paone said. The days of buying a condo and flipping it for quick profit are over, Paone said.”
“In the first six months of this year, there were 2,840 condo and townhouse units listed for sale on the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS, a 74 percent increase over the 1,629 units listed during the first half of 2005.”
The Arizona Republic. “The median home price in metropolitan Phoenix is holding steady and even inching up, thanks to pricey home sales. In the wake of home sales plummeting, the uptick in the median home price may look like the housing market’s bright spot. Some homeowners may be cheered, thinking that their values are climbing. But the figure is deceptive.”
“In June, almost 40 percent of all existing homes to change hands sold for $300,000 or more. Early last year, only 25 percent of all resales cost that much. Only 14 percent of the houses to sell last month cost less than $199,000. At the beginning of 2005, before Valley home prices started their rapid ascent, 38 percent of all resales were priced below $200,000.”
“Phoenix’s relatively affordable housing for the West has enticed businesses and people to move here for the past 50 years. After last year’s 50 percent run up in home prices, economists are concerned that if people can’t move here, make the typical wage and afford the typical home, growth will slow. The average Valley income climbed less than 3 percent during the past year.”
Thanks to the readers who sent in these links. Some related links:
‘Patrick Aulds, has been heading up Pulte’s Las Vegas south division. How has the market changed in the past year? Wethor: The market’s changed dramatically, as you know. Even within the last three months it’s changed quite a bit. We were seeing cancellation rates in the 10 to 12 percent range, which is very low historically. We’ve seen that creep (up) over the last few months especially.’
From the reports on the bilked Las Vegas mortgage investors:
‘Ben Costa is embarrased that a big chunk of his retirement savings disappeared in a mortgage investment scandal. However, he accepts only partial blame for the bad investments. He says the federal government forces seniors into questionable investments by keeping interest rates artificially low, that Nevada’s state government pretends to police investment brokers without actually doing it, and that a federal court has dawdled in divvying up available funds among investors, while allowing a bankruptcy receiver to deplete those funds with unreasonable charges.’
‘You wonder why so many of the people who were hurt are seniors? It’s not because they’re dumber than others but because the government compels seniors to invest with mortgage brokers.’ The traditional senior investment, the bank account, is no longer of much use because the prime rate, set artificially low for political reasons, allows banks to pay depositors rates that either fail to cover inflation or barely do. We have to get enough interest to survive and pay our bills, or else we’ll eat up our substance and become burdens on society,, Costa said. ,So the government forces us to invest with mortgage brokers by setting interest rates so low.’
‘Lisa Bastian says she’s tired of being depicted as greedy and naive. The greed in Nevada’s trust deed investment scandals was exhibited not by investors but by mortgage lenders licensed by the state yet inadequately policed by it, she said.’
‘Media accounts of lending firm breakdowns, she says, imply that investors should have known better than to expect ‘double-digit’ returns on investments in deeds of trust secured by a borrower’s real estate. ‘But the fact is we were, by and large, prudent investors. I looked at the loan-to-value ratio, and USA Capital said they were lending 50 percent of the value of a property. They told me this was a client with a good past record, and the worst thing that could happen was the loan could go into default and we could go get the land.’
So the government forces us to invest with mortgage brokers by setting interest rates so low.’
Did they hold a gun to his head and force him to invest???
A fair point. But have you sat down with a fixed income adviser lately? The first thing they start on is Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac paper. Keep in mind, these folks probably got in this when CD’s were yielding very little. IMO, this is a good preview of what we can expect if the MBS’s experience defaults on a large scale.
I cannot believe that any fixed income advisor would be irresponsible enough to advise *any* individual to buy Fannie/Freddy paper. It’s no big secret that they are both in trouble - anyone who bothers to read the newspaper knows that, and a financial advisor is duty-bound to keep track of what he/she is recommending.
And if any advisors are recommending to Ma and Pa Kettle that they invest in individual seconds and thirds, they should be hunted down and shot.
NEW INVENTORY ALL TIME HIGH FOR PHOENIX BUBBLE CENTRAL: 51,537!!!!!!!!
http://www.ziprealty.com/maps/level2/index.jsp?usage=null&level2=az&pageLink=%2Fregistration%2Fregister.jsp%3FcKey%3Dqrq87vnt%26
PHX condos for all!!! I’ll take 2!!
No Problems in Sarasota. We just need more brokers.
Brokerages boom despite slowdown
http://heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060717/BUSINESS/607170616/1007
Schwab gave me this advice just 2 months ago. I didn’t take it and I now have concern about their competence now.
If you don’t have enough money to invest in first liens, you should be ready to lose your investment. In foreclosure, holders of seconds (and especially thirds) rarely get their money.
Oh, Please. These people recommend whatever pays them the biggest commission. Merrill had my in-laws (late 70’s, retired) in Internet funds, so nothing these so-called financial advisors do surprises me.
Yea, define what Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac “paper” your referring to because I think what you are referring too and what’s being described in the articles are two very different beasts.
A well placed trust deed investment can yield you double digit returns in a up or down market. The LTV is usually low enough to where you can recoup your principle if the loan goes bad unless there was fraud or mismanagent.
The article is talking about private investor money. I assume it was hard money lending. The full story was in my last post on this past Friday.
I know that Wells Fargo is pushing ‘agency’ paper. I don’t know if it was a fund or what, because I’m not interested. Treasury Direct is working for me just fine, with even bills coming in over 5%.
mr income stream.
Rosy left the Las Vegas market last January when US Capital went down. The ususal LTV as you will soon read about is a fraudulent appraiser if one ever existed at all.
The dominoes in this and other “HARD MONEY” stories are just beginning to develop. It seems they all have 6 month extenision of HOPE! The LTV was based on a value = 250% over trend for real estate (desert) that would soon be all bought up and all gone! Twelve months later (as in NOW) it turns out the housing developers have plenty of land and more than enough inventory for the next 7-15 months. Leaving the land speculators with NO one to sell the rocks and dust to but EAT the negative cashflow of 12% annually. Of course the hard money guys that lent @ 75% LTV now have 110=120% interest in the land (Trust deeded) that they as yet do not control… YOU do the math is that an income stream or foreclosure. I smell foreclosures! What say you?
A good hard money investor that buys 2nd trust deeds goes out and checks the property themselves ,(however they bear forclosure costs should the property defaullt ).Investing in a fund is different . You have a manager who is the investor and you are on a limited liability basis usually .
Remember the “Keating” mess in Arizona ?The investors in that mess were investing in that stupid Hotel that went belly-up. I think at the time the investors were promised a 12% yield .The investors thought the investment was Federally insured,(wasn’t), because a Bank was marketing the investment .Forget the name of the Bank . At the time ,(I believe the late 80″s),the yield was only a couple of interest points above a CD yield .
I believe it was Lincoln Savings and Loan.
mrincomestream,
In today’s market, I would not touch individual TDs. The temptation is too great for fraud and worse as desperation rises. I know some people who fall back on that business when straight RE transactions are soft; but right now, I wouldn’t buy a TD from my best friend unless I audited him first. Which of course I would never do to a best friend, I would just decline the opportunity. That’s how bad it looks to me.
YMMV.
mrincomestream is a broker.he wood sell his first born to make a buck
sm_landlord-
I would probably still invest in a TD even in todays market if the price and LTV was right and the deal was local. I’ve had pretty good success with them. But I only buy first TD’s. I can much hit the number myself as far as value.
If Fannie, Freddie or the FHLMC fail the senior bond holders will very likely be bailed out by the US govt under the too big to fail doctrine and to protect the banking system. Remember congress chartered these corporations and set them up with LOC with the US treasury. Pretty tough to renege on that.
But the common stock and preferred stock holders and subordinated debt holders will likely lose everything.
Pleeease… That old greedy bastard would not have invested in a CD even after 17 Fed rate increases cause that greedy bastard wanted the double digit returns offered by those deeds of trust. So I’m glad he lost his money. That’s the only way these greedy people will ever learn. Good riddance.
Easy, Paul.
Just hope you have your wits about you when you’re 94, assuming you live that long. Mortgage fraud is somewhat subtle, and when your choice is surviving on cat food or taking a chance, just hope that it’s not you that has to make that choice.
There are going to be a lot of desperate oldsters going forward, and they deserve some warning, at least. They will not get it from the paper peddlers.
Yep, the older people have been taking a bath the last five years because of the low rates . I have talked to alot of older people who say they are looking forward to the higher CD rates coming up finally .
I’m not 95 but I’m over 55 and I remember reading in the newspaper the ads about those LV deeds of Trust, but I also read the fine print which clearly stated that these were not FDIC insured. So… if it means that when you become 95 you also become stupid on top of being greedy, then I’m glad he was taken to the cleaners.
I rmember explaining patiently to my 92 year old mother-in-law and other older relatives that in March of 2000 during the dot.com crase, I didn’t think it was wise to have money you needed to live on every month in the stock market. But all the residents on the retirement home were watching CNBC and buying into the dot.com, as if they were just starting out. It was like talking to a wall. So after she lost 50% of here savings in the stock market, rmember she was 92, she started bad mouthing the greedy wall street brokers, the CNBC talking heads, the government, every body but herself. Sorry, but, greed is greed, and if you can’t budget now, and live frugually, without taking risks of trust deeds, I say TOUGH. You made your bed now lie in it.
You don’t need much more than a single wit to know that an investment paying a 6+ pt spread on treasuries might have a decent chance of not paying back principle. I’d hope that if you only learn one lesson by the time you retire it’s that there is no free lunch.
If you actually go to the links and read these bagholders’ tale of woe, you see that their own greed and stupidity made them classic marks for fraudsters. I have no sympathy.
Neither do I have sympathy for those who bought at the top. I agree with Russ. The Federal Government did not send any goons to force Ben Costa to take out a loan. Mr. Costa is a typical American - not willing to take responsibility for his failures, but blaming others for them. We Americans were not that way 100 years ago. Americans held themselves accountable.
Costa didn’t take out a loan, he put money into loans. What has these folks in a bind is that the judge put everything in the hands of the three biggest creditors and the collateral (property) can’t be sold until they want to. IMO the reason it is getting so much press in Vegas is they are elderly.
Considering how many mutual funds are holding MBS’s, this could be a problem coming to other portfolios.
Ben - In USA Captial’s case nearly 60% of all the deals that USA underwrote were also directly invested in by the “now bankrupt company”
In addition many of the interest (income streams were “false/ phonied up) and those Trusts have a claim, maybe even a claim in other deals as it may have been their funds that were used to close the next deal.?
Yes the regulators dropped teh ball BUT onemust consider to whom and what snake pit you are dealing with. These loan brokers get BIG MONEY and have a scalpers reputation.
Welcome to the illiquid world of Real Estate.
“Considering how many mutual funds are holding MBS’s, this could be a problem coming to other portfolios.”
Indeed. I reviewed the allocation of all my mutual funds late last year and dumped everything that had a bit too much FNM in it.
“I would say that the temperature to convert condos has cooled,’ Paone said.”
I’d say that as temeperatures have risen to the 110s, interest in rapidly cooling. LOL
Simmssays…New Technology Makes Drinkable Water
http://www.americaninventorspot.com/dirty_water
Friends refer to Paone as Mr. Understatement.
“Phoenix’s relatively affordable housing for the West has enticed businesses and people to move here for the past 50 years.
I would wonder if air conditioning, gas and water are equally as affordable in Phoenix.
My 2 bedroom 2 bath 1,000 square foot luxury apartment costs $940 per month between my sister and I - roughly $470 each. Our electric bill for June, a hot month was $280 and we keep the place at 75 or 76 degrees. So there you go. Water is paid for. I pay extremely low rent for a shared apartment in California on the beach for now, but the neighborhood houses are selling for $1.3 million. i figure that’s $8,000 per month mortgages. My expenses including $50 for my share of cable TV ring up to $685 per month on two places I’m renting. Compared to $8,000 per month mortgage payment (not to mention the 6% commission to RE agents, I am getting a major bargain in the “unbearably hot” Phoenix. And I’m earning the same $ per hour as I did when my job was in LA the last 3 years.
“The traditional senior investment, the bank account, is no longer of much use because the prime rate, set artificially low for political reasons, allows banks to pay depositors rates that either fail to cover inflation or barely do. We have to get enough interest to survive and pay our bills, or else we’ll eat up our substance and become burdens on society,, Costa said. ,So the government forces us to invest with mortgage brokers by setting interest rates so low.’”
Interesting since I am a senior citizen. I know a lot of seniors who get along on pensions without any money to invest. I know many like myself who would never invest like Mr. Costa. I was getting 4.6% or better on a deferred account since 2001 and the rest goes into ETF’s. I don’t want to loose this money but even if I did my wife and I would still retire with a six figure fixed indexed income only because we planned and stayed with one company for 30 years.
You are fortunate to have:
1. a pension
2. a secure job for 30 years
Unfortunately, these things are becoming extinct now. There are also many people in your age group who did not have pensions or the benefit of working for a stable company. They really are in a world of hurt with fixed-income returns being what they were these past few years.
That’s why I’d much rather have a decent 401k match over a 30 year career than a pension. A pension is little more than semi-secured debt of a single company, a 401k can have 100-1000 companies all of which operate in different industries and parts of the globe.
‘But the figure is deceptive. In June, almost 40 percent of all existing homes to change hands sold for $300,000 or more. Early last year, only 25 percent of all resales cost that much. Only 14 percent of the houses to sell last month cost less than $199,000. At the beginning of 2005, before Valley home prices started their rapid ascent, 38 percent of all resales were priced below $200,000.’
The writer could also have said that prices could very well be falling in Phoenix, and it’s disguised by statistics.
Prices are falling in certian areas of metro phoenix. New homebuilders, noticeably kb home, are reducing prices quicker for sure. Outlying areas such as queen creek and maricopa are coming down quicker. The resale market is still in” hope in one hand and sh@t in the other” mode thus resale homes are not selling as fast.
Unless I’m reading the article wrong, he got back all the money he invested, but not the interest? God, he’s 94 years old. He doesn’t have that much time left–he should be happy he got anything back IMO.
You read it wrong, I think. I read that he got back ten cents on the dollar.
The general psychology surrounding housing is what needs deperately to get adjusted back to reality. Residential housing is an expense - Period. You live in it and work pay it off. At that point you have EARNED a “free” place to live (barring taxes & maint). This business about housing being an investment that grows at a rate over inflation is basically nonsense.
Housing 101 class started this summer. It’s a 4 year class. Most drop out (BROKE). The rest learn a lesson. Ben’s blog is the study guide.
What does that make us? Is there a name for us ben’shousingbubblebloggers?
Exactly. A house is a home and it needs occupants. It needs regular maintenance and, at times, repair. A house isn’t something bought and sold 3-4 times in a span of a few years for profit each and every time, with no maintenance, and oftentimes, no occupants. I cannot believe how naive people were to believe this sham could keep going. And these builders and their “luxury condos” with flippers camping out and snapping up multiple units per person, only to sell them before they were even built. Were these builders on crack along with these flippers? Did they think that, all of a sudden, we had some rapid population growth and were suddenly blindsided with a housing shortage/crisis? This whole thing was/is absurd. And right now, in some small town USA, there are flippers buying/selling as we speak!! It is still going on!! What an absolute joke. Anyone buying right now deserves whatever they get. Buyer beware and prepare to live in that house indefinitely. A house is a home and always will be.
Totally absurd speculative frenzy architected by the NAR & lenders and enabled by the FED. Now, I will concede that all housing regions are not created equally. There are financial and industrial centers that, because of competition, should carry a premium. But that premium was already present in the past 20 years. The latest couple of rounds of instantaneous price jumps are pure bullshit speculation without any fundamentals to support the spikes. As soon as the frenzy subsides watch as the bubble area prices contract to historic norms…
You are correct but it does not have to be that complicated to figure out. Here are some easy (if approximate) calls:
LA will revert to its mean, because business is balanced there. Import traffic has offset the decline in textiles, and tourism is doing OK as usual. Entertainment is sucking, but usually turns up in downturns.
Detroit will be pure hell, because no one has any further reason to live there. The unions have burned the crops and salted the earth.
New York will be volatile, but it’s still the financial capitol of the world and there is no sign of that changing.
Washington DC will adjust, but the FedGov is not going to shrink.
Florida will get hammered, as usual.
Texas will get hammered, as usual.
Phoenix? What’s that about? I remember there was a town in AZ by that name, what ever happened to that???
Las Vegas? Alway been cyclical, always will be. Makes NY look sane.
Atlanta? Always muddles through.
San Francisco? Who Cares?
Silicon Valley? Defines Cyclical. Crap houses will always be overpriced near Stanford, the only question is: “by how much”.
Oops, I’m ranting.
{/rant}
Ben, any new photos this week?
Yes, but we’re starting a new gallery style and are finishing with the details.
Thanks
Read about House repossessions triple.
“THOUSANDS of Victorians risk being thrown out of their homes for falling behind on loan repayments.
Almost 3700 Victorians, or 20 a day, have been hit with property repossession warnings in the Supreme Court this year already.
This is on track to triple last year’s total.
Easy credit, soaring petrol prices and tight household budgets have been linked to a surge in struggling homeowners being threatened with eviction.
The figures came as home buyers attended 400 auctions statewide on the weekend amid signs of another real estate boom.”
Are we next?
Also more foreclosures filed by mortgage brokers than banks .
LV Landlord –
Care to comment?
I have not seen him in a long time… have you?
C’mon, Stucco. You’re trolling for a dead woman. She hasn’t been seen here for months.
Someone is not happy…
http://tinyurl.com/gow7m
Ouchie. There will be so many people disgusted with realtors. I hope their ways and means changes dramatically (commission, way they get paid for business). When you think about it… what do we really need them for?
WTF? Is this a Craigslist troll?
On further consideration, this is definitly a troll. Nothing is for sale, the posting simply redirects to the bulider.
What’s completely insane is the prices. Remember, this is in Northern Virginia, where lots are worth about $25,000 on a good day when the buyers are smoking crack. Completely worthless property. So houses should sell for about the cost of construction. Completely insane.
Oops, I’m repeating myself.
{/rant off}
Read about You can see which one he is talking about.
The Troll is mad because the realtor advertised that the models were selling for 619K, when in fact they are priced from 540K.
(New York will be volatile, but it’s still the financial capitol of the world and there is no sign of that changing.)
eh, the wealth is heading to the east.
Yesterday, I spoke with a retired couple from Reno who had bought 5 “investment” condos there. They were talking up their “investments”, and I expressed concern about the future market of buyers, citing the stalling Las Vegas market. Their response: “of course, Reno is so much nicer than Vegas, it won’t…” You get the picture.
A house is the biggest investment for most families. Every smart member of this capitalist society knows that. This is why smart capitalists don’t buy a house at the top of a housing bubble. Why would any one want to spend a ton of money on a sure fire loosing investment like real estate, which is now drooping in value?
The problem is most people hear “a house should be your biggest investment” when financial advisors have been saying “a house is your biggest investment.” Major difference.
Why do I always end up at the end of these comments — because I’m too buisy to read them as they happen. —-
My comment - Mr. Paone, Dino, has gone from a two office 13 person firm in Conn. and here, to a one office two person firm. He was the lender of choice for all condo conversions in Tucson, he is not any more.
Condo loaning has been “berry berry good” to Dino for many years… but “not so berry beery good” this last year. — Berry berry slow paperwork and work ups make for berry unhappy customers.