July 17, 2006

‘What’s Important Is What Is Not Selling’

A pair of reports from the northeastern US. “Fairfield County’s housing market is getting a little squishy around the edges, but it’s nothing to be alarmed about, real estate agents say. The market should settle into a buyer’s market stretching into next spring.”

“Right now, however, things are in a bit of flux. Inventories are starting to build throughout the county as sales soften, houses are staying on the market longer, and some sellers are being forced to reduce their asking price to market value in order to sell their property.”

“‘Sellers have begun to realize they have to be competitive with their asking prices, that they can’t reach beyond what’s market value,’ said George Schneider in Danbury. ‘It’s taken a better part of a year to realize we’re in a trend of reduced demand, increased inventory and the need for sellers to be more realistic in their pricing.’”

“The housing market ‘is definitely in transition to a buyer’s market,’ which is a month or two away, Schneider said. ‘The market is about to turn, but it won’t happen until the mindset of the sellers change, where sellers begin to welcome any interest in their property, when a buyer makes any kind of an offer and the seller begins to welcome that.’”

“As buyers become more cautious, ‘deals are becoming tougher to put together,’ said Todd Debek in the town of Fairfield, as potential home buyers bring more considerations into their equations than location, price and condition. ‘People don’t want to buy something they think is going to be a depreciating asset.’”

“Not that depreciation is on the horizon, ‘but no question about it, some markets haven’t seen appreciation since August,’ Debek said, especially in new construction in the $1 million to $1.5 million range in the Fairfield area.”

“‘The market has really changed around here,’ Peggy Nye said. ‘We’re back to a normal market, but people aren’t used to a normal market. People are panicked; they don’t know what to do.’”

The Boston Globe. “Home sellers are learning what any retailer already knows: Low prices are one of the surest ways to beat the competition. Coldwell Banker is coaching agents on how to persuade clients to list their homes at an asking price that undercuts those of comparable ones on the market.”

“The hope is low prices will attract more prospective buyers, leading to faster sales. Other real estate agents in the Boston area report success with similar strategies in a housing market with an unprecedented glut of properties for sale.”

“Buyers are ‘overloaded’ with options and ‘only respond when they see a perception of value,’ said Angela Stamoulos, who teaches Coldwell Banker’s course on this pricing technique, which the firm rolled out this spring in Connecticut and last month in Massachusetts. By grabbing buyers’ attention, she said, ‘the true market value of the property comes to fruition.’”

“Coldwell Banker’s efforts reflect a sea change in the market’s psychology. Today, what’s important is what is not selling. Drama pricing focuses on what buyers see on the market, forcing sellers to look at the prices of active listings.”

“‘It’s another indication that it’s clearly a buyers’ market,’ said Timothy Warren Jr., CEO of The Warren Group. ‘There’s a lot of stuff on the market, and it’s going to have downward pressure on prices.’”




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35 Comments »

Comment by NjGal
2006-07-17 05:51:02

““Not that depreciation is on the horizon, ‘but no question about it, some markets haven’t seen appreciation since August.”

Huh? But inventories are increasing, sellers are “undercutting” (anyone remember the Tom Green sketch about Undercutters Pizza?:)) but no depreciation, no way! Ridiculous.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-17 06:30:09

“Home sellers are learning what any retailer already knows: Low prices are one of the surest ways to beat the competition. Coldwell Banker is coaching agents on how to persuade clients to list their homes at an asking price that undercuts those of comparable ones on the market.”

It’s a buyer’s market — shu-u-ure… Buy now and watch undercutters pare hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of your detained equity, as the comps depreciate to the bottom.

 
 
Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2006-07-17 05:57:24

“Undercutters Pizza” was great. Tom Green would follow a pizza delivery guy to a home and offer to sell his pizza for less. It was pretty funny and the pizza guy’s would get mad. I think he was quasi-attacked.

“‘It’s another indication that it’s clearly a buyers’ market,’ said Timothy Warren Jr., CEO of The Warren Group. ‘There’s a lot of stuff on the market, and it’s going to have downward pressure on prices.’”

When prices are 30% lower and sellers are begging, then it will be a buyer’s market. You’re getting warmer there Timmy.

Comment by praetorian
2006-07-17 06:17:51

Tim-tim-timaaaaaaay!!!

Timay?

Comment by cereal
2006-07-17 07:32:09

“what is it lassie?”

‘woof”

“you say timmy’s been telling lies again?”

“woof”

 
 
 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-07-17 05:59:23

“The housing market ‘is definitely in transition to a buyer’s market,’ which is a month or two away, Schneider said. ‘The market is about to turn, but it won’t happen until the mindset of the sellers change, where sellers begin to welcome any interest in their property, when a buyer makes any kind of an offer and the seller begins to welcome that.’”

So, what you are saying here is that the stupid prices are so high that no one is even making any offers? This is not indicative of a buyers market - this is a train heading off a cliff.

“Coldwell Banker’s efforts reflect a sea change in the market’s psychology. Today, what’s important is what is not selling. Drama pricing focuses on what buyers see on the market, forcing sellers to look at the prices of active listings.”

“Drama pricing” - WTF ??? Is this a joke ? This sentence has no meaning whatsoever. This “drama” unfolding is going be a tragedy that all the stupid realtor-speak in the world won’t be able to soft-pedal

Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-17 06:32:55

“The housing market ‘is definitely in transition to a buyer’s market,’ which is a month or two away, Schneider said.

Try half-a-decade or two…

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-07-17 19:59:27

“The housing market ‘is definitely in transition to a buyer’s market,’ which is a month or two away, Schneider said.

Try half-a-decade or two… ”

Right. Maybe 2 times a day on these blogs I see a hopeful post about the market being at its bottom sometime this year or the next 10 months. Realistically, it could take quite awhile. Ask yourselves just how many people in this bubble bought in 2004 and 2005? How does that number compare with those who bought in 2001 through 2003? Or for those who bought before those years? What number of houses up for sale now are from desperate people, or just from people who can make the payments but decide to try to take advantage of the bubble prices? I guess a lot of for sale signs are in front of houses that don’t really have to sell. I cannot tell you the numbers. I’m being realistic. I would say the bottom is 5 or 6 years from now on the coastal houses, even houses in Phoenix and Vegas won’t reach bottom for a few years, IMO.

 
 
Comment by pismobear
2006-07-17 19:13:06

Drama Pricing? Is this where you ’stage’ people in the property during an open house. Husband-wifey-kids-one of each, woof woof and kitty to do their thing, Members of the actors union of course.

 
 
Comment by optioned unarmed
2006-07-17 06:03:02

“It’s not a buyer’s market,” she said. “It’s a procrastinator’s market.”

(from the seller in the Boston article)

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-17 06:18:38

“By grapping buyers attention she said,’the true market value of the property comes to fruition’.”

Oh , so your going to publish to all potential buyers the rental ratios that determine true market value . Or maybe the NAR is going to make it well know that the income levels of a area is the true determining factor in long term prices . Or maybe a true cost approach to value might grap some attention .

I guess the industry would rather have a car give-a way or offer a trip to Las Vegas to determine true market value .

 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-07-17 06:19:34

flux or flush?
6 years up 1 neutral and 4 down folks
same as last time

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-17 06:28:16

From the NY article:

‘The transition is coming at the end of an historic, 10-year market that saw several years of double-digit appreciation in housing values fueled by historically low mortgage rates.’

After 10 years, this cycle is due for a turn.

Comment by chilidoggg
2006-07-18 02:47:39

will they ever print “fueled by historically low interest rates and historically reckless lending standards?”

 
 
 
Comment by Craven Moorehead
2006-07-17 06:21:34

Once again, a whole bunch of softball articles chock full o’ quotes from Realty Clowns and soothing editorialism, i.e. “not that depreciation is on the horizon”. Proving that the main stream media, with a few exceptions so far, is still not on board and doing a severe disservice to its readership by not quoting some real economists. The bottom line is that the economic fundamentals do not support anything but massive depreciation going forward. All of this is just a lot of whistling past the graveyard. Add the Real Estate section editors to the list of people who should be show-tried when this is all over.

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-07-17 06:25:33

100% correct. We are in store for the biggest azz-pounding this country has ever seen.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-17 06:31:38

“… but it’s nothing to be alarmed about, real estate agents say. The market should settle into a buyer’s market stretching into next spring.”

I am amazed that all these Realtors (TM) opt to gave up their lucrative careers in economic forecasting in order to sell houses instead.

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-07-17 06:33:48

Consider it a public service. LMAO

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-07-17 06:46:24

The market should settle into a buyer’s market stretching into next spring.”

AHHHH, the vautned spring selling season we’ve been waiting for all year…

I guess they actually meant everything will pick up in the spring of 2007! Maybe Gary Watts meant 15% was ‘in the bag’ for 2007?

The thought that there will be a buyers market only until 2007 spring is laughable at best.

Please.

Clouseau

Comment by Backstage
2006-07-17 09:54:35

Maybe Gary’s bag has a hole in it.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-17 07:06:27

I also don’t get this prediction of appreciation come spring of 2007 .
If you look at what the holding the bag flippers are doing now ,it appears they really believe there will be a upturn in 2007 . Is this based on a belief that the Feds will lower rates by that time ,or that the baby boomers won’t be able to hold out anymore on buying ?

I don’t get it . The market is correcting and any predictions of a upturn in 2007 is ridiculous.

Comment by Backstage
2006-07-17 09:56:20

The realtors are the procrastinators. They are postponing until spring ‘07 what they should realize today.

Comment by chilidoggg
2006-07-18 02:50:27

Maybe they think we’re living on Neptune. Doesn’t Neptune take like 3 years to go around the Sun? So next “spring” should be fine.

 
 
 
Comment by HonestAppraiser
2006-07-17 07:08:34

One thing I have learned is when they (realtors) say financing fell through that means appraisal did not justify value. Comparable sales get lower and lower as people bail out. The trick is to be one of those first sellers to bail thus creating the lower comparable sale,

Comment by jim A
2006-07-17 08:36:17

Well that’s certainly true in these breathing=prospective borrower days. When money is tight, there are actually people who the banks won’t lend money to. That’s when we’ll know we’re approaching bottom, when it is actually difficult to borrow money from a bank. Prices will not be able to start creaping back until stupid spendthrifts can’t spend somebody elses money to buy a house.

 
 
Comment by Bostonian
2006-07-17 07:25:52

Ha,ha ha. “Drama pricing” - that is the best euphemism EVER!!! Don’t worry, prices aren’t going down, its just drama pricing! Looking forward to ever more “dramatic” prices here in New England.

 
Comment by Rainman18
2006-07-17 07:56:03

We’re back to a normal market, but people aren’t used to a normal market, said Peggy Nye

“Sista, there aint nuthin’ normal about this. And since you’ve only been a licensed realtor since 1995 how would you know what normal is?”

 
Comment by PontiacMI
2006-07-17 08:59:22

“…some sellers are being forced to reduce their asking price to market value in order to sell their property.”

This looks very much like an admission that pricing was not “at market value” for the last many years.

 
Comment by Rainman18
2006-07-17 09:09:21

my bad. It’ls close

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-07-17 10:14:09

Coldwell Banker agents getting training on how to tell sellers they need to take a bigger haircut. I hear 10%, do I hear 15%, 15% 15%, let me hear 25%, 25%, 30%, 35, 40% - 40% haircut to the big burly bald dude in the back. Congratulations sir.

Comment by Chip
2006-07-17 12:00:13

LOL.

 
 
Comment by Orion
2006-07-17 10:21:05

“Buyers are ‘overloaded’ with options and ‘only respond when they see a perception of value,’ said Angela Stamoulos, who teaches Coldwell Banker’s course on this pricing technique, which the firm rolled out this spring in Connecticut and last month in Massachusetts.

This is amusing, Coldwell Banker has to teach a class about pricing your home lower than other comperables homes to sell it. I can see it now…

Angela: Ok class, let’s review. You’re listing a home which needs to sell quickly in a market with a lot of housing inventory. What do you do?
Realtor1: Oooh ooh, I know I know… you have a free barbeque on the deck for all the agents in the area.
Angela: Ok. That’s a good start. Anyone else?
Realtor2: Ummmm… How about lots of signs on the street?
Realtor3: With balloons!!
Everyone: Yeah balloons!! Balloons!!
Angela: That’s fine everyone, but remember when we talked about pricing? How would you price the house?
Realtor1: I know I know… you’d start a bidding war and take the highest price.
Realtor2: And make them write an essay on why they should get it.
Everyone: Yeah an essay!!
Angela: Ok everyone, settle down, maybe we should take a break.

Comment by pismobear
2006-07-17 19:20:47

How about feeding the squirrels ? No contingencies of course. ‘WaWa sorry I forgot about that one’, said the newbe in the back.

 
Comment by ca renter
2006-07-17 23:26:03

LMFAO, Orion!!!! :)

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-07-17 21:37:05

Who are we feeding the squirrels to? Prisoners, dogs, wolves, lions at the zoo?

 
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