July 20, 2006

‘It Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better’

The Wall Street Journal has this report on the housing market. “The Wall Street Journal gathered data on inventories of homes for sale at the end of the second quarter from a variety of local sources. Metro areas showing large increases of homes for sale and relatively weak employment growth include Boston, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and New York.”

“A June survey of real-estate agents..found that home prices had weakened from the prior month in 30 of the 42 metropolitan areas covered. The markets with the weakest pricing trends included Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, St. Louis and Washington, D.C.”

“The number of homes on the market in Orlando, Fla. is nearly five times the year-earlier level, while the inventory has quadrupled in Phoenix and Tampa, Fla., and nearly tripled in the Washington, D.C., area.”

“In Miami prices have been about flat in recent months, says Ronald A. Shuffield, president of (a) brokerage firm. Mr. Shuffield says he expects prices of condos in less-attractive parts of the Miami area to fall slightly in coming months.”

“So many new homes are available on the outskirts of Phoenix that it is ‘a total bloodbath,’ says Ivy Zelman, a housing analyst for Credit Suisse Group. She doesn’t see a recovery in most major metro areas in the near term. ‘It could actually get worse before it gets better,’ she says.”

“Sherry Chris, COO of Prudential California Realty, says condo prices in downtown San Francisco are about level with a year ago because new buildings have helped supply catch up with demand. Overall, the number of homes on the market in the Bay Area has more than doubled from a year earlier.”

“Orlando shows the biggest surge in inventory. Beverly Pindling, president of the Orlando Regional Realtors Association says prices in the Orlando area generally are down about 3 percent to 7 percent from a year ago. Home builders, eager to make sales, are ‘romancing the Realtors,’ she says; some are offering agents who bring in buyers commissions of up to 10 percent.”

“Kent Fowler, a real-estate agent and investor in Washington, is bracing for an extended period of pain. Construction was recently completed on a condo near the city’s Chinatown district that he bought in 2004 for $629,000. Mr. Fowler believes the two-bedroom condo now is worth at least $800,000. But potential buyers are scarce in today’s glutted market.”

“So he is trying to find a renter for the condo for the next year or two at around $3,500 a month, even though that rental income would fall about $900 short of his monthly loan payments, condo fees, taxes and insurance.”

“‘I do think we’re going to see some tougher times ahead,’ says Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. By August, he says, most cities in California will be showing modest declines from a year earlier in home prices, and prices also may decline further in parts of Florida, Nevada, Arizona and the Northeast.”

“Headlines about falling prices could make buyers more aggressive in negotiating and persuade some sellers to ‘get out with what they can,’ Mr. Anderson says.”




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78 Comments »

Comment by Getstucco
2006-07-20 12:50:39

“Headlines about falling prices could make buyers more aggressive in negotiating and persuade some sellers to ‘get out with what they can,’ Mr. Anderson says.”

Headlines about falling prices could lead to falling prices.

Comment by ric
2006-07-20 17:27:44

Falling prices could lead to headlines about falling prices, which could lead to falling prices, which could lead to even more headlines about falling prices, which could lead to more falling prices, which could….

Point being, there is no chicken/egg argument here. The prices fell before the headlines.

 
Comment by skipintro
2006-07-20 18:21:32

Bottom line: No cause for celebration by bears as of yet. Prices up here in Cali 150% over the past 6 years, but to date no significant decline in prices, although inventory building dramatically, which should presage declining prices.

However, remains to be seen whether significant price declines will occur over the next couple of years. If this doesn’t materialize, I would then argue that there’s been no bubble here in Cali, just a dramatic increase in prices, and that bubble bears should give it up (by the way, I’m a bear).

Next 12 to 24 months are key. If prices remain flat over this period, bears have lost, imho.

Comment by BKlawyer
2006-07-20 19:38:37

Skipintro- Prices don’t matter. There are no buyers, period. The market has ground to an abrupt halt: as gruesome and sudden as when a tree trimmer falls into the wood chipper.

 
 
Comment by Larenter
2006-07-20 18:27:47

Well I am already seeing $50k to $100k off of some houses and this is just the beginning! I really think as the inventory continues to build we will start seeing some good declines. This thing has just begun and we aren’t even to the heavy resets!! The fun begins in 2007! I hope the rates keep going up and up!!

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-07-20 20:39:43

Yeah. Funny thing is that I have been lurking Yahoo Real Estate for too long. Prices in 90254 and 90277 have been showing up as hardly budging. Then I look at some of those addresses on zillow.com and most show lower prices, some show higher prices. Sure. Zillow is just estimates, based on the market while Yahoo R.E. is supposedly buyer’s asking price. I believe Zillow.

 
Comment by loonofficer
2006-07-21 07:50:45

I concur. I track prices on the west side…. Westwood and Brentwood in particular. Asking prices were amazingly sticky for a period of around six months. At last I have seen significantly lower asking prices (but they are still too high).
To me that is evidence that the pain is being felt by the obstinate.
Inventory has surged and all we need is those one or two investors to finally dump and there go your sales comps. The face off is ending between sellers and buyers. Sellers are blinking and mopping their brows and realtors are heading to Costco to buy diapers in bulk.

 
 
 
Comment by DC Bubble Watcher
2006-07-20 12:52:02

Mr. Fowler, what the HELL is your “belief” based on?

Comment by Judicious1
2006-07-20 14:50:51

wishful thinking?

Comment by Shawn
2006-07-20 20:57:16

Here’s the place.

http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/apa/183377856.html

Nice view of…other buildings. 1310sf, seems like a $3300/mo rental. Good idea to wait out the “blip” in prices for a year. Over the long term RE prices increase with incomes. But there are bubbles and depressions in the short term. I guess his “belief” is that this is a 9-month blip and that the tulip bulbs with magically resume their ascent because “it’s different this time”.

 
 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-07-20 12:53:52

“Kent Fowler, a real-estate agent and investor in Washington, is bracing for an extended period of pain. Construction was recently completed on a condo near the city’s Chinatown district that he bought in 2004 for $629,000. Mr. Fowler believes the two-bedroom condo now is worth at least $800,000. But potential buyers are scarce in today’s glutted market.”

Then why wouldn’t he sell it? $3500/mo rent for a two bedroom condo? Anyone from the DC area like to comment on that possibility? Seems a tad high to me, like a grand or so. Oh, this guy is an investor alright, no doubt about it. Hes got it all figured out real good! Hehehehe

Comment by LIrenter
2006-07-20 12:56:03

probably couldn’t sell it for $600k today.

 
Comment by lina
2006-07-20 13:03:09

It will be very hard to get, 3500 for a 2 bedroom. In established parts of town, you can get a two bedroom for 2500-3000 a month (Dupont, Woodley, even Georgetown).

He definitely won’t get $800,000 for it. Again, you can buy a similar condo in a better and established part of town.

 
Comment by Dave S.
2006-07-20 13:04:05

The ceiling on the rent he can get from that is probably about $2k. I can’t imagine anyone paying more for a 2br in that area. I had a homeless guy throw a rock at me there once.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2006-07-20 14:08:17

2400 UP-SIDE DOWN a month!? Tough ‘investment’.

Comment by ric
2006-07-20 17:30:30

3500+900 = 4400/month upside down. Nobody is going to rent it from him.

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Comment by BillM
2006-07-20 13:07:58

I’ll comment on that. I’m currently renting (cashed out late 2003) a large single family home in excellent condition in a prime DC neighborhood (Cleveland park) for $3800.00 month. The guy’s dreaming about only a $900 month carrying cost. It’ll be much more, cause there is no way for $3500.00 month. There are literaly a ton of newly developed condos on the market in that area. Many of these will be converted back to apartments competing with him for tenants. Of course, any month he doesn’t have a tenant he carries everything. Don’t you just love it when they say “No big deal. I’ll just rent it”. Yeah right. Most of these poeple have no idea what it means to be a landlord, believe me. Look out below. I encourage everyone to read the Harper’s Ferry cover article of a couple of months ago “Real Estate: The New Road to Serfdom”.

Comment by lalaland
2006-07-20 13:51:46

“I encourage everyone to read the Harper’s Ferry cover article of a couple of months ago “Real Estate: The New Road to Serfdom”.”

The magazine is called Harper’s.

Here’s a link (pdf) to the excellent article:

http://www.shloky.com/files/housing%20boom.pdf

Comment by chiphxla
2006-07-20 14:38:40

Excellent article; I bought the magazine when it came out but it’s great to propagate this link. What impressed me was the abundance of statistics to back up theory. Plus, the author does not seem to have an axe to grind, so he appears fairly objective. If his prediction is true, and the U.S. housing market parralels Japan’s, we could be in for a prolonged downward spiral that will impact the entire economy. I wonder if Bernanke and his crew ever ponder that possibility.

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Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-07-20 14:55:11

bb had a very scared look on his face today.he will keep raising rates you can count on it.

 
 
Comment by V1m
2006-07-20 20:46:32

Best monthly in America.

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Comment by Dupontguy39
2006-07-20 13:23:31

He probably bought at $500/sq ft., and thought they’d go up to $600/sq ft. But prices in that part of town I bet aren’t pulling more than $350/sq ft, and I expect will drift down to not more than $150/sq. ft. before its over. It also depends, of course, on what part of Chinatown it’s in — if it’s right next to the Metro, that’s great; but there’s a part called “NoMa” (which I think is short for NoMa[n's land]) which is the border with a very dicey area, mostly parking lots which were intended to be real estate development but which now, I expect, will stay parking lots for another twenty years or so. If it’s one of the new buildings bordering “NoMa”, he’ll probably be lucky to get $300/sq ft now, $100/sq ft a year from now.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2006-07-20 13:56:21

NoMa - North of Massachusetts Avenue. Not terrible, but getting dicey. Certainly not worth paying that rent for, if it’s up there. He’s dreaming. And it will soon become a nightmare.

 
 
Comment by DC Condo Watcher
2006-07-20 13:53:56

$3500/month for a new 2BR/2BA condo, preferably with parking, and around 1200 sq. ft., would actually be a fairly competitive rate in DC, especially in Chinatown. $4500/month is not uncommon for class A 2BR/2BA apartments.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2006-07-20 14:00:32

If his place is in NoMa, he’s competing against:

$2750 / 4br - 4 Bedroom 3 Bath House, 2 kitchens, 2 fireplaces, CAC, W/D

35 Hanover Place NW in the heart of NoMa just 2 blocks from the NY Ave Metro has 3 big equal sized rooms on 2nd floor, 1st floor has spacious kitchen, full bath, big dining room, and cozy living room with gas fireplace. PLUS separate in law apartment with its own bath, kitchen, living room, in basement.

Some people might prefer a smallish condo, though. (Right.)

 
 
Comment by bacon
2006-07-20 14:13:13

Kent’s a flipper…

Garfield 1021, unit 913- bought 8/17/05: 686k, sold 12/2/05: 779k, so almost 100k in 4 months. apparently some GF was not paying attention to inventory in that building.

Comment by implosion
2006-07-20 15:08:51

$100k - easy come, easy go.

 
 
Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-07-20 14:48:41

and he will be unemployed soon.

 
Comment by Matilde
2006-07-20 14:51:48

A nice two bedroom apartment in desirable areas of DC can be obtained for $1800-$2500 a month. In fact, the huge, pre-war, vacant 2 bedroom down the hall from me in Adams Morgan can be had for $1900/month right now. You can rent a house for $2800-$4000 a month.

Craigslist apartments for rent are filled with these guys. Their ads mostly just get reposted, week after week.

 
Comment by TulipsAllOverAgain
2006-07-20 19:04:48

I’m in DC and he is screwed. Chinatown is crowded with tourists and MCI Center riff raff. There is no food store within walking distance, so unless you can live off Pringles from CVS and Chipolte its a stupid place to live. Nobody would list it at $800k and nobody would buy it at $600k. I hope he enjoys the cash burn rate on the place.

 
Comment by Virginian
2006-07-21 06:12:54

I know this area well, and I have couple friends who bought in that area. The place went up some upgrades, but not much. It is not great place to walk around at evening. There are shemales prostitutes all over, you can see smashed car windows all the time. It is one the worst area to find parking, and if you are lucky to get one at any time of the day because of the convention center, you AYOR if you venture to the area. There are many places in DC area where you pay half rent than the Mr. Fowler would charge you, and they are nicer, safer areas. $800,000 for two bedroom condo is just too much, I seen friends’ places and they are not big either.

 
 
Comment by LIrenter
2006-07-20 12:54:28

“Headlines about falling prices could make buyers more aggressive in negotiating and persuade some sellers to ‘get out with what they can,’ Mr. Anderson says.”

blame it all on the media, and those stingy selfish buyers!

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-20 12:59:20

As has been posted before, when the prices were going through the ceiling, it was fundamentals driving the market. But now the reporting is making prices fall. Did the reporting cause the homebuilders to put up 300-400k more homes than they sold for years?

I will say, the media did play a role in promoting concepts like, we were all going to own 2+ homes and that baby boomers were going to need even more square footage as they retire. Everyone with a grandmother knows she has to have multiple homes.

Comment by Backstage
2006-07-20 13:30:04

Personally, I think it’s the bloggers making this crash happen.

After all, dosen’t the MSM get all their information here? Then Ben posts what they’ve printed, we comment, then they print it, then Ben posts it, then we comment……

It’s a feedback loop that will drive prices to $0.

Let’s here it for the bloggers.

 
Comment by MB Renter
2006-07-20 14:44:51

Reporting is making housing prices fall.

Reporting is making us lose in Iraq.

Reporting is making the climate change.

Yes, clearly it’s all the reporters’ faults.

Comment by foreclose_me
2006-07-20 16:39:15

Nope, it’s the bubble that is making the bubble pop. I was reading bubble-alarm stories in some financial MSM in 2002, and alarmed by it myself. They had no effect in the overall picture.

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Comment by V1m
2006-07-20 20:54:05

Heh. Of all the things reporting is or isn’t accomplishing, one thing’s for sure: U.S. reporting is making the news media lose its audience (newspapers at a rate of 3-4% annually).

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Comment by Estanley
2006-07-20 12:58:36

…Just as headlines about rising prices lead to rising prices.

Comment by Judicious1
2006-07-20 15:03:40

“In a bubble, high prices are sustained only by the expectation of more high prices. That is what makes a bubble a bubble, prone to bursting.” - Robert Shiller

It’s driven by specualtion on the way up and by reality on the way down.

 
 
Comment by SFC
2006-07-20 13:00:52

Home builders, eager to make sales, are ‘romancing the Realtors,’ she says; some are offering agents who bring in buyers commissions of up to 10 percent.” To me, this says that someone using an agent to buy a house there would be upside down that 10%, as someone without an agent should be able to buy the same house for 10% less?

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-07-20 13:08:14

Absolutly! As I commented some weeks back on the same topic, this should be a 10% price reduction benifiting the buyer, not a fat check to the realtor. Anyone who gets sucked into something like this is and idiot and deserves what they have coming…….a good old fashioned hosing!

 
 
Comment by Melody
2006-07-20 13:03:29

“So many new homes are available on the outskirts of Phoenix that it is ‘a total bloodbath,’ says Ivy Zelman, a housing analyst for Credit Suisse Group. She doesn’t see a recovery in most major metro areas in the near term. ‘It could actually get worse before it gets better,’ she says.”

Did I see bloodbath? Wow, it’s on now!!

Comment by Catherine
2006-07-20 14:00:30

1. Queen Creek
2. Gilbert
3. East Mesa
4. Maricopa

I am in Phoenix about every 2 weeks. Last evening I was driving down Camelback (high end homes)…there were so many for sale signs on EVERY BLOCK and every north/south intersection…I could not believe it, not even with all the data streaming in about Phx. It’s not just builders, it’s not just the newby-stucco-outskirt homes…it’s 1M+ established, old school neighborhoods too!

Comment by LIrenter
2006-07-20 14:28:48

i foresee a growth of those old ghost towns from the ‘wild west’ days - only made of ugly stucco boxes.

maybe they can start a tourism boom - come see the remains of the housing bust of 2007!

 
 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2006-07-20 18:47:31

The same 6 houses have been for sale in my Chandler subdivision for 6+ monts now. Not a single one has lowered their price, even though most bought in 2002 when they were first built for half their current asking price. G R E E D… Soon they will HAVE to sell and hence HAVE to lower the price. The smartest idiot would drop his hasking price 10% and out while the gettings good. Are these people blind? Can’t they see all the for sale signs? I’m also amazed at how many people I know with muliple properties, I’m talking about 20 somethings with 4 or 5 *investment* properties. I’m simply amazed by all this. I had the same amazement at the dot.bomb fiasco. There is no logic here. You drive prices up so first time buyers are priced out, you’re holding 5 properties who are you going to sell them to? Oh, you’re smart, you’re going to rent them??? Yes you and all the other flippers. It’s getting uglier by the day.

Comment by AZ_Cowboy
2006-07-20 19:55:15

Same thing in my part of Chandler. Three new “for rent” signs popped up on my street last month. My lease expires in Oct, and I’m anticipating a bidding war for my rent dollars. Can’t wait.

 
 
 
Comment by kerk93
2006-07-20 13:05:08

Read the link for the definition of fractional reserve lending. I think it’ll answer any question of how it will end if folks are still having a difficult time sorting it out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement

Comment by Luvs_footie
2006-07-20 13:24:29
 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-07-20 13:07:03

Ya see Mr Banker, Here is my business plan. Did I mention that I’m an investor? Good! Now, I’m gonna borrow around 600K from ya and plunk it down on this here 2 bedroom condo. Then I’m gonna rent it out for a couple of years at a loss of around 12-20K per year. How do ya like it so far? OK, good. Now, around 2008 or so I’m gonna sell it, are ya with me so far? OK, now, I figure that come 08, even though another 20,000 condos will be on the market, even though a person has to be in the upper 1 percentile of incomes to afford it, I’m a gonna sell this here condo for a million bucks, easy! What do ya think of that plan?!!! Are ya with me or a-gin me? Alright! This stuff’s easy, let’s go!

Comment by SFC
2006-07-20 13:26:32

My target market, Mr. Banker, are people who are both:
a) smart enough to be in the top 1% in incomes
b) insane

Comment by Luvs_footie
2006-07-20 13:31:24

LOL……..to funny

 
2006-07-20 13:37:50

“Dear investor, since I can repackage your loan and off-load the risk and still get paid for making the loan. I accept your proposal. ”

– Mr. Banker

Comment by HARM
2006-07-20 16:36:43

Precisely.

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Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-07-20 19:34:24

LOL — so true

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Comment by implosion
2006-07-20 14:27:07

Too bad Howard Hughes is dead.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-07-20 14:49:27

Now, I’m gonna borrow around 600K from ya and plunk it down on this here 2 bedroom condo.

You forgot-

BTW, MR. Banker-Ya got an appraiser’s in yer hip pocket who can pad that purchase price a tad? Things been kinda slow with my biz, and I’m a bit late on my $50k credit card debt and BMW lease.

Extra $100k on the number outta get me right…and yeah, and don’t forget to roll in those closin’ costs…and why don’t ya add a couple thou to yer commisssion for gettin’ the numbers right…

Got all that now????

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2006-07-20 13:08:11

Ah Mr. Anderson “By August, he says, most cities in California will be showing modest declines from a year earlier in home prices, and prices also may decline further in parts of Florida, Nevada, Arizona and the Northeast.” You put a real big smile on my face with them thar words. I’m going to go outside now and bask under a shade tree in 70 degree weather with a slight wind a’blow’in and a tall cold drink in me hand.

Comment by Luvs_footie
2006-07-20 13:45:41

Me too…………..gotta watch this “soft landing”…….particularly with the under carriage locked in the up position……..GROUND CONTROL TO MAJOR TOM…………

 
 
Comment by david cee
2006-07-20 13:41:36

What happened to Summer Buying Spree. Yeah, like in 100 degree temperature there will be a swarm of qualified buyers to give up a day at the beach or the mountains to go look at another overpriced, unaffordable house with a used car salesman disguised as a realtor. Based on sales statistics from last 5 years, even in really hot markets, sales slowed in July and August. I beleived that July 4, 2006, the PANIC would begin. When the July sales figure get reported in middle of August, blood will be running in the streets, and prices will dump 25% overnite. We are weeks away from the dot.com crash of 2006 in real estate.

Comment by Backstage
2006-07-20 13:47:27

Nope, David, it will be slower.

Niels Bohr said “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-07-20 16:47:35

His peers also said and proved some very freaky things about time (past/present/future).

 
 
Comment by Otto
2006-07-20 13:47:47

Recently

Comment by Otto
2006-07-20 14:17:26

Oops sorry, first time posting.
Slightly off topic but…
Recently I visited my dad’s birthplace in Germany. He’s from a small village 45 minutes south of Dresden. I was blown away by the whole experience.
Like many of you on this blog, I’ve always wondered about the disconnect between today’s housing prices and the fundamentals, which gets back to my story.
So I actually find the house my dad grew up in. The house has been abandoned for about 6 years now, but it’s a nice house. About 2000 sq. feet, probably quarter acre, and right up against a nice creek. I was allowed in the house and it’s not in too bad a shape. House was built in 1890 and it’s a solid bricks and mortar type house. It needs some upgrading but it is habitable. The town itself is mainly deserted but there is a bar and parttime post office. Nearest grocery store is 10 minutes away by bicycle. So the ” realtor” asks me if I want to buy it.
“How much” I ask . 5000 Euros is the reply.
I bought the house.
( For those interested ther are literally hundreds of similar houses for sale all over Saxony)
Now remember, this place is a 45 minute commute from Dresden which is Europe’s most happening city right now. Jobs in IT pay the same as her in SoCal, and they are plentiful.
How I ask myself, can one possibly justify today’ prices?
People who say that housing prices won’t or can’t drop significantly or not students of history.
You wan’t to know the ultimate irony?
When I checked the records of the house I bought, it’s original selling price was almost exactly 3000 Euros! And it’s 116 years old.

Comment by LIrenter
2006-07-20 14:31:29

what are taxes/carrying costs like on a house there?

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Comment by Russ Winter
2006-07-20 13:44:44

Gini out of the Bottle:
http://www.xanga.com/russwinter

 
Comment by MeShell
2006-07-20 14:06:49

He’d be very, very lucky to get $2000/month for that apartment. My coworker was robbed at a bus stop a few weeks ago in the nice part of Chinatown.

I’m continually amazed by all the greedy jerks willing to be interviewed for these news stories. I would be mortified if that was me, and everyone I knew was reading about 1) how greedy I was and 2) how f’ed I was…

 
Comment by dl
2006-07-20 14:37:36

Every single economist & media analyst including Wall Street admits that prices are trending down & inventory is way up, but none of them thinks it will crash. What is considered crashing to them? To me, the market is either crashing now or will crash soon. Can anyone tell me what is wrong with their great minds?

Comment by Catherine
2006-07-20 14:51:11

The word “crash” is associated with suicides, bank runs, repossession, depression, etc.
They just can’t bring themselves to say it, because it acknowledges that they’ve been wrong, very wrong, even culpable….they hyped on the way up, but the best they can come up with on the way down is sh*t like…”souffle”.

Comment by luvs_footie
2006-07-20 17:13:21

”souffle”. ……….is the past participle of the French verb souffler which means “to blow up”

So………does “souffle” and “bubble” have something in common?……..

maybe they both blow up……..hehehe

 
 
Comment by loonofficer
2006-07-21 08:28:33

Every single economist & media analyst including Wall Street admits that prices are trending down & inventory is way up, but none of them thinks it will crash. What is considered crashing to them? To me, the market is either crashing now or will crash soon. Can anyone tell me what is wrong with their great minds?

What irks me is that every television news reporter cites the housing slowdown is due to higher interest rates. They never once mention affordability or the fact that specuvestors have left the market and a pile of overpriced inventory.
Okay so today’s 30-year fixed is about 1% higher than it was 18 months ago…. We all know that this was probably the most under-applied -for mortgage in the last 3 years.
The rate on the oh-so-popular neg am loan is still 1% and it’s now even easier to qualify than ever (you can even finance 100% with some lenders now).
My experience with the “mainstream” media’s treatment of a subject matter of which I happen to know a little more than a layperson has permanently soured my tendency to cut them a little slack. I even hear the same crap on Bloomberg television…. you would think (perhaps naively, granted) that they would inject a litlle more analysis than KTLA5, no?

 
 
Comment by SF_renter
2006-07-20 14:59:56

>What is considered crashing to them?

 
Comment by d
2006-07-20 16:20:49

Two observations:
1) NoMa is an ABSOLUTE hell-hole. To most Americans it looks like downtown Kampala.
2) Mr Ronald Shuffield’s phlegmatic comments would be most reassuring were it not just one year since he offered the defining quote of this economic opera> Namely that Miami was working on “a new paradigm”, in which land shortage would support indefintely increasing price. This begs the question: what idiot at the WSJ is asking this clown for input?

 
Comment by JCanada
2006-07-20 16:53:52

Wil Wheaton a housing economist at MIT? That explains everything ;)

 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-20 17:15:45

A different point of view below. I don’t know what to make of this guy? Anyway I paste it here as a reference in case , well hes very wrong about The Inland Empire. Smog capital of S. Cali. Personaly I think it will do a bit worse than this regional economist thinks. haha

RANCHO CUCAMONGA - Anyone waiting for a housing bubble to hit the Inland Empire will be waiting for a long time. That’s the message regional economist John Husing had for an audience of real estate professionals Wednesday at the Rancho Cucamonga Civic Center.

There’s just too strong an economy and too much job growth for much other than the “soft landing” Husing and other economists have been predicting for the end of the five-year housing boom.

“We are right on the cusp of a very powerful period in job growth,” Husing said. “Local unemployment in May was 4.2 percent, and that’s the lowest I have seen for May in 42 years of studying the local economy.

“The market may have some ragged edges, but our overall economy is as strong as it has ever been.”

It’s an economy that was providing affordable housing and population-serving jobs in 1975 in Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. Now those same homes and similar jobs are in Barstow and Yucca Valley.

“I used to say I would be amazed when we get to Baker,” Husing said. “It will still be amazing, but I think we will get there someday.”

With some economists, the question hasn’t been whether there would be a price bubble, but how far prices would fall when that bubble burst.

Only Tuesday, senior economist Christopher Thornberg of UCLA’s Anderson School of Management had called the soft landing theory “nonsense” and said we were in a “classic bubble.”

“If we are lucky, prices will go flat,” he said, suggesting that we could see five years without price appreciation.

That may be true elsewhere, Husing said, but it won’t happen here.

“Is the housing market vulnerable?” he asked. “Yes, it is. But is a bubble likely to happen? No, it is not. The underlying strength of our economy is too great.”

Clearly, the audience was happy to hear what Husing had to say. He has studied the regional economy since 1964 and has watched the Inland Empire grow into an economy bigger than 22 states.

“We have more than 4 million people here now,” he said. “There are 24 states smaller than us, and within five or six years that number will be 30.”

One of the more interesting factors to watch will be growth of the logistics industry around Victorville, although Husing told one questioner that the dream of an “inland port” there that would replace much of the function of Los Angeles/Long Beach didn’t make economic sense.

“The railroads don’t make money on trips short of the Rocky Mountains,” he said. “So if you want them to transport just to Victorville, you have to figure out a way to make it worth their while.”

In the end, the veteran economist is still very upbeat about the future.

“We are a state of risk-takers,” he said. “California has the most entrepreneurial culture in the entire country.”

Michael Rappaport is business editor of the Daily Bulletin. He can be reached at (909) 483-9395 or at m_rappaport

A few facts about the Inland Empire economy:

– Created 56,658 jobs in 2005, more than Orange County and San Diego County combined

– Created 500,192 jobs from 1990-2005, 46 percent of all new jobs in Southern California

– From 2000-20, projected to have more population growth than all except six states - California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1669494/posts

Comment by ockurt
2006-07-20 17:46:50

It is true that the IE has been growing at a breakneck pace recently. Part of it has been because people have been priced out of homes in the LA basin over the past few years, and as the population grows, eventually job and infrastructure growth follows. But, of those 56,658 jobs created in the IE in ‘05 they don’t mention what the average salary is; I can bet that most of them aren’t that great and probably are focused in retail or construction (which is ready to take a dive.) Most people I know that live out there still drive 2 hrs each way to the LA basin for higher-paying jobs. The logistics companies have been there a long time, mainly for the cheap, raw land that was available to build state-of-the-art facilities. Once that’s gone, they will build further out. I mean, really, how far will people move inland for a job? To Baker? Whatever. The bottom line is that while the IE will still be a growth engine for many years to come, it’s still a shitty place to live and the infrastructure sucks.

End rant.

 
 
Comment by ockurt
2006-07-20 18:14:25

Oh, just to mention about people thinking renting their place out is so easy and such a money-maker…my neighbor recently moved to Vegas for a mortgage broker job (yeah, I know) and tried to rent her condo out here in Irvine. Guess she was asking too much. Now she’s got it listed for sale (been on the market for a month, no bites).

Maybe she’s not making any money in Vegas and needed the $$$???

 
Comment by ockurt
2006-07-20 18:15:28

And what’s with this italics shit?

 
Comment by luvs_footie
2006-07-20 22:21:51

There you go………..

http://www.positioniseverything.net/explorer/italicbug-ie.html

Hope that answers your question

 
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