‘An Absolutely Miserable Six Months In Real Estate’
A pair of housing analysts have predictions out today. “Real estate economist Gary Watts has revised his optimistic forecast for the Orange County housing market, telling an industry gathering this morning that he expects prices to go up 11 or 12 percent in 2006, and saying the gain could even be smaller.”
“Watts, who had forecast that local home prices would go up 15 percent this year, now believes that annual appreciation could be as low as 8 or 9 percent. ‘It’s been an absolute miserable six months in terms of real estate,’ Watts said.”
“‘I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.’”
The Review Journal in Las Vegas. “Despite historically high inventory, the cost of housing in the Las Vegas Valley increased in the first half of 2006 and will continue to rise through the end of the year, according to housing analysts.”
“‘There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn’t one in the future,’ said Larry Murphy, president of real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq.”
“Steve Bottfeld, a senior analyst with research firm Marketing Solutions, said the price increases should continue through the end of 2006 even as sales decline. The overall falloff in closings will come as the market grapples with substantial inventory. About 20,000 resales are on the market in Las Vegas as investors and homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages look to trade in their properties.”
“‘Speculators and people who bought homes with (adjustable-rate mortgages) in 2004 are in a lot of trouble and they’re trying to get out,’ Bottfeld said.” “Bottfeld..noted that his market research in the second quarter uncovered for the first time local consumers who have canceled out of up to three new-home deals as they leave their existing home on the market in search of higher offers.”
“Housing supply is also abundant in the new-home sector. Area builders were actively selling 503 subdivisions in June, a record high for the market and a 17.2 percent increase over the 429 communities they were marketing in June 2005, Murphy said.”
“The condominium-conversion market has a two-year supply of homes, with 15,785 apartment units designated as potential conversions, Murphy said, though he added there were no guarantees that all those rentals would change over to for-sale properties.”
“In the high-rise and mid-rise submarket, 37,307 units are in planning, marketing or under construction, SalesTraq’s numbers show. But Murphy said that glut of supply isn’t alarming because developers will take up to four years to finish those projects.”
“Steve Bottfeld, a senior analyst with research firm Marketing Solutions, said the price increases should continue through the end of 2006 even as sales decline. The overall falloff in closings will come as the market grapples with substantial inventory. ”
Have the laws of supply and demand been repealed or severely altered? It is ridiculous to predict futher increases when there has already been declines when comparing the same house to last year’s peak price.
Especially since the % terms of builder incentives is unknown.
that one jumped out at me too. he’s either an idiot or a liar.
and/or
He’s an idiot for being such a liar. Adios to credibilty, Mr. Watts.
You don’t understand, Watts lives in a fantasy world. As long as you believe something with all your heart (sigh) everything will be fine. He’s going to stay positive until the walls fall in on him, then he’s gonna wonder how he could have gone wrong.
Murphy’s LAW - “There never was a bubble in Las Vegasw and theis is n’t one in the future”
Well well, Larry I believe you are eminently qualified for Alan Greenspan retirement club, “thre blind mice”! All members swear to have never seen a bubble, spoke a bubble and hear no bubbles to qualify!
Unfortunately Larr.
1) Vegas is 120% above LT trend
2) 60% of 2005 homebuyers used zero arms or negative Am Loans.
3) Wages are depressed due to volume of illegal immagrants in the hotels. So affordability has never been worse.
4) 8-9 months MLS supply to sales is the beginning of overahead supply.
5) More Condo deals have blown up than are being built!
I bet you bought “insp”(equity) (go) Near 1500, and that wasn’t a bubble either.
6) check out this article, LV has same issue Sky rocketing utility and taxes.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/abox/article_1217973.php
What else is the idiot going to say. All they know is how to push real estate. What are they going to say things suck and only thing I am qualified to do if this gig goes sosouth is sell cars or flip burgers. They will lie until the bitter end.
yes, we shouldn’t be so judgemental. it’s just that some of us old fashioned, out-of-touch, un-hip folks feel that earning an honest living is better. but maybe we should get with the program and start doing things the modern way by lying and ripping off as many people as possible.
I’m looking at this chart:
http://tinyurl.com/qzn2g
And, considering that prices in OC are down for the year, and the trend for the whole freaking region is decidedly down, I don’t see how they’re going to all of a sudden take off like a rocket.
What I’m seeing — without even doing the math — is every county in SoCal following San Diego’s lead downward, like rodents down a rat hole.
The only thing apparently getting any higher here, IMHO, is Mr. Watts.
Read my press release on his announcement:
http://socalbubble.blogspot.com/
John Doe
He must not understand how the whole YOY thing works. We are already flat to slightly negative YOY. This means that for the last year, ending in June, we are already negative. And because trends in housing take a long time to develop, there’s virtually no chance there will be even a slight increase, much less an 11-12% increase. These dumbasses think that house prices are an aggregate, where we’ve had maybe 5% YOY increase through May, and this means we can get maybe 11% by end of year. Can they be this stupid?
He understands perfectly.
It is just that his customers don’t.
That is how he makes his living.
Figure it out: Real inflation at 6-7% (Not the phony CPI), Dollar decline 5-6%, Median price increase 8%, Actual net -4%. Easy math from the man behind the curtain. Move along now. heheheheheheheheheh
What price increases?
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Nevada/LasVegas/
The prices in Vegas have been flat for the past year, according to DataQuick. Are these people on drugs?
actually looks slightly negative to me…
Hey, Steve, spend some of your money on the Nevada Legal News.
It’s the paper of record for Notice of Defaults in Las Vegas. I am counting 132 Notices on July 3, 2006…last year there were 9….
Usually, 18% of the notices go full term, 3 months and 21 days, and are sold to the Trustee holder and the courthouse steps. If this economist doesn’t think 30 people losing their house in 1 day is a bid deal, then he might want to take Econ 101. But, then again, “Vegas is different”, “it can’t happen here”
Thanks to the reader who sent in the OCR link.
‘The condo craze could be losing steam according to one local housing expert. Over the past two years, numerous apartment buildings around the Las Vegas valley have been converted into condominiums creating an apartment shortage. Now, that trend appears to be changing.’
‘Dennis Smith with Homebuilders Research Incorporated studies housing trends and says there are signs the cooling housing market is also affecting condos. He says there are now fewer buyers and investors in the market. He even predicts that some of those condo conversions could be turning back into apartments.’
‘Now those number of buyers drops, so now we don’t need all those apartments as condominiums,’ said Smith. Smith does say he has also seen a trend of renters who have been renting homes instead of apartments because there is more space and little price difference.’
posted earlier, but more SoCal HB fun from npr today:
http://tinyurl.com/krcl5
wouldn’t you want neighbors who looked like this?
How much for the Mom ?
“Your Women ! Sell us your Women !”
How much for the mom *and* the whirlpool?
Just wait until builders in San Fernando/Porn Valley decide to start staging like this.
Actors portraying the ideal family … how boring. Now if they stepped up to hard-core porn, then they might start getting some sales traffic!
That’s a hoot. Does that MOM come with the house? I’ll buy it! But only if she comes fully accessorized. Looks like the wardrobe cost on that model could be excessive.
Definite high maintainance costs need to be figured into the annual expenses.
From the article:
Daughter “Danny” makes cookies in the kitchen. “I love my fake parents!”
Heh. That made my afternoon.
Look at the over bite on the daughter. Put some braces on the kid. Double ugly kids. They were adopted.
Husband-for-a-day. That job sounds like something even I can do. In fact, with that co-star, I might consider going a little longer than a day. Cantex wouldn’t even need to pay me.
Boy, Californians are wack…
I mean really.
That’s real ingenuity on the part of HB’s, using two LA/Scal staples: hollywood imagery and the large population of underemployed actors/actresses out here in LaLa land. They really need to utilized more hollywood stunts to push all those hundreds of tract home communities being built in such desolate moonscape areas as the riverside/San Bernardino(Inland Empire) boonie regions.
Here’s how to push sales in the IE:wait till late fall right after the rains when the landscape turns temporarily green and lush and the air is clear. Hire a hollywood film crew, film a newly-built home set against a backdrop of mountains and open grassy fields. Have some struggling actors/actresses having a backyard BBQ with the photographer shooting the “family” against the mountain/meadow backdrop. (May need to plant a few fake trees:the IE is basicaly treeless).
This scene can be repeated over and over for the Hundreds of new tract developments popping up all over the IE, in order to economize on production costs. Run this scene on a local TV /Cable paid programming period or put it on video/CD. This may be a way to push all those plain,cookie-cutter, assembly-line tract developments springing up all over the IE like an algae bloom infesting a lake.
Don’t you love the fantasy world of real estate shills who, in an absolutely miserable year, still expect to make a mere 8 or 9% appreciation.
Don’t you wish that you too could repeal the fundamental laws of economics? Every single chart of value over time for any asset since the dawn of humankind shows ups and it shows downs.
But if you will just go out and spend 3 or 4 hours getting a California Real Estate license you too will be able to enter this amazing world where the downs only go up 9%.
It was the same story during the NASDAQ bubble, where people thought that in a “bad year” their portfolio would only make around 10%. The thought that in a bad year they could LOSE 40% never occurred to them.
To me, the most amazing part of this whole story is the “this time is different mentality,” which is no different than the same mentality for the tech stocks circa 1999. How can it always be different, and yet end up being the same?
“We have all been here before, we have all been here before…”
hey, this time I think it really is going to be different, except not how they were thinking. All the pieces are in place for an unprecedented collapse. I’m not happy about it, I think this is going to be very ugly.
But if you will just go out and spend 3 or 4 hours getting a California Real Estate license you too will be able to enter this amazing world where the downs only go up 9%.
Hilarious! I wonder what they ask on the realtor’s exam. Like all of you, I have a friend who became a realtor about a year ago. I asked his opinion of the housing market, and he replied, “There is never a bad time to buy, but now is better than ever! Rates are low, prices are rising….I have suddenly become a robot, need more data, does not compute, does not compute, shutting down…”
Sad. I asked him how the R/E is going about six months ago. “Well, I’m not going to lie to you. It’s tough.” At least he has a day job. This was supposed to be a side gig. I’ll bet he hasn’t come close to recovering his start up and marketing costs. But hey, you gotta spend money to make money.
Know how to make a small forture in RE?
Start with a large fortune.
Two older rich guys talking…
Guy1 - So, what’s your son doing now that he’s out of school?
Guy2 - Oh, he graduated and now he’s a magician.
Guy1 - I thought he went to business school and you set him up with a business venture?
Guy2 - Sort of. I gave him $1M to get a business going. Then he started his magic career. He turned the business and all of the money into sh1t.
What we have here is a fellow who is absolutely disconnected with reality …
“Watts, who had forecast that local home prices would go up 15 percent this year, now believes that annual appreciation could be as low as 8 or 9 percent. ‘It’s been an absolute miserable six months in terms of real estate,’ Watts said.”
Wouldn’t 8 or 9 percent represent annual appreciation near the upper end of the historic range, if you exclude the extraordinary period since 1998 from the data sample? In that case, Gary is predicting an abnormally high rate of appreciation despite a miserable six months. Does anyone else detect a serious disconnect from reality here?
“‘There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn’t one in the future,’ said Larry Murphy, president of real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq.”
Vegas has historically high inventory, but nonetheless, there isn’t and never will be a bubble there. And 2+2=5.
If anything, it’s possible that LV SFHs peaked before other places. In the WSJ today, they show increases in inventory YOY. Phoenix looks like inventory is up 300% or so, LV is somewhere between 20-50% up from last year (can’t tell from the graphic), and what was most surprising is that the LV inventory increase over last year is the smallest increase in the West except for Seattle. Not saying that is good, but seems to be working on a different path than other markets in the West.
“‘I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.’”
Great weed dude…
still taking deep bong hits…
hold it in… hold it …hold it….
Weed? At the very least he’s on LSD, based upon his market hallucinations.
Or maybe he’s on Special K, that would make him so touchy-feely-positive about the market.
Weed? At the very least he’s on LSD, based upon his market hallucinations.
Or maybe he’s on Special K, that would make him so touchy-feely-positive about the market.
Isn’t “Special K” horse tranquilizer? Then again, maybe the lame old fella needs a hit of that to put him out of his misery…
If he’s talking price drops, then I agree with him.
“‘Speculators and people who bought homes with (adjustable-rate mortgages) in 2004 are in a lot of trouble and they’re trying to get out,’ Bottfeld said.”
Sounds to me like good conditions for prices to drop like a rock.
No, not at all. That only makes the market “a little challenging”. This type of desperation will cap the gains to 11%-12%, according to experts that are quoted by the media.
Total bullshit.
I think we’ve found something even lower than ambulance chasing lawyers on the job food chain…..Real Estate Economists
What does one have to do to get the title Real Estate Economist?
Ha! Check out Steve Bottfeld!
Resnet Bios Scroll down just a bit to find him.
He is an EVP of a consumer research organization that recently serviced Coca-Cola and Citibank. Now he does work for KB Homes, Beazer, Summerlin, etc. This is what makes him an expert. He does “consumer research,” whatever that means.
How about our “energy expert” Daniel Yergin? He has a BS in English and a Phd in international studies. Somehow that makes him the world’s expert on oil. Snake oil.
Pretend that the set of integers only contains the set of counting numbers above eight.
Gary Watts wears many hats.
-In the above article, he’s an economist.
-He’s a broker here: http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/13/real_estate/twomarkets_fortune/index.htm
-Here, I don’t know what, http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/05/15/sections/news/news/article_520494.php
having all that personal info freely available on the internet may not be safe for gary in the next year or so… he’d best go underground.
Now I understand…”Went to France for his honeymoon in 2004″ He has a new chicadee to support. He’s not exactly a handsome man. He needs to go on fancy trips and show his girl off. Buy, buy buy!!!
Last link states Gary majored in psychology.
This guy knows exactly what he is doing. He is playing mind games on the naive public to find a few more greater fools before the implosion.
“‘There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn’t one in the future,’ said Larry Murphy, president of real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq.”
Fast Forward 5 years:
Police Negotiator: “Mr. Murphy… Step down from the ledge….You have family…You can start over…
“There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn’t one in the future ”
Please explain the rush to buy overpriced condos located in a blast furnace.
“There isn’t one in the future”
How the F does he know? What if median prices went to $2mil in the next six months? Would that be a bubble? Denial that bubbles can exist tend to cloud your ability to recognize when one does exist.
“There isn’t one in the future”
what i find funny about that statement is the wording. instead of “there isn’t GOING to be one in the future” he simply says “there isn’t one in the future”. you see… he jumped in his dolorian, took a trip, saw no bubble, and came back to tell us.
I was thinking the exact same thing. Either he doesn’t understand how to use the future tense of the the verb to be (i.e. won’t) or he has a crystal ball he’s been gazing into.
bottfeld and murphy are real estate seminar hucksters:
http://www.crystalballseminars.com/nev/
now we know why they deny the obvious.
These guys will be out of business soon.
Murphy’s law - say what you’re paid to say and exit stage left. Mr. Murphy exemplifies the Peter Principle. Mr. Murphy doesn’t agonize over the trifles such as the “truth” because he doesn’t believe in them. Like GWB, he figures if he shouts nonsense long enough he can outlast the trend. But don’t for a minute think Mr. Murphy is going to jump from any ledge. He’s not the type. More likely he’d push his family off first and collect the insurance.
Agreed.
Anytime an experienced individual acts or speaks in a manner that seems contradictory to reality, it’s always best to ask “How does that individual benefit from those statements?” rather than to assume a sudden case of insanity or stupidity.
Agreed.
Anytime an experienced professional makes comments that seem at odds with reality, it’s best to wonder how that individual benefits from the acceptance of those comments, rather than to assume insanity or stupidity.
no bubble, good grief. or grief for him in 07!
Leslie Appleton-Young or David Lereah
If it could be found Leslie Appleton-Young, her husband, assuming she is married or if Leslie is a man his wife, son, daughter or any relation invited to their thanksgiving day celebration sold a home in last year and has not bought another for whatever reason only know to Appleton-Youngs would that be a Smoking Gun and some connection to now deceased Ken Lay who also suggested to buy while he was selling.
How would I research county sales records?
Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: “We’re expecting a fairly significant shakeout.”
DENIAL DENIAL DENIAL
these people are stuck on DENIAL! LOL
Fear is next on the slope…once they get unstuck that is.
then it’s
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency….then we’re almost done (about 5 to 10 years from now)
I Just wrapped up the latest version of Lereah’s book.
It’s the one titled “Ponzi scheme”.
http://www.putfile.com/damonbots
Enjoy and have a great weekend!
Poor little alpacas. You know Liareah will skin them alive don’t you? Chinchillas only go up…
Of course, Chinchillas are the next “sure thing” investment! That’s where all the capital sloshing around will go next. After all…
They aren’t making any more chinchillas.
Ok, maybe they are. Still, have you ever heard of chinchilla prices going down? Of course not, who ever tracks that? So that means it’s a “can’t lose” investment. Simply come to David Learah’s free seminar where you’ll learn how to “Think Like a Milllionaire Chinchilla Farmer.” There will be plenty of books and DVDs for sale and you can sign up for our exclusive “Chinchilla of the Month Club” where a cute critter will arrive at your door each month, guaranteed to make you a load of cash. Or a load of something. Your future success is “in the bag.” Be sure to bring your credit card. Actually… considering your credit, we’d prefer cash.
hehe thanks damon
bingo. 900,000 listings plus or minus 17
mid may was 799,000
6/10/06 was 836,471
6/14/06 was 840,935
6/17/06 was 846,120
6/20/06 was 850,317
6/22/06 was 855,892
6/24/06 was 860,647
6/29/06 was 866,037
7/01/06 was 858,675
7/09/06 was 870,854
7/11/06 was 882,239
7/13/06 was 886,055
7/14/06 was 890,896
7/18/06 was 895,022
7/21/06 today 900,000
http://www.ziprealty.com/maps/index.jsp?usage=search&cKey=74rbwvlk
Stanley,
Just out of curiosity, do you know how many listing there were this time last year?
I only started watching in May of this year.
“Real estate economist Gary Watts has revised his optimistic forecast for the Orange County housing market, telling an industry gathering this morning that he expects prices to go up 11 or 12 percent in 2006, and saying the gain could even be smaller.”
How can he say this? Has he done an exhaustive study of the housing market? Builders are slashing prices 100k off last year. I bet same house sales are already flat or declining. The band played on.
He’s a Real Estate Economist; he doesn’t need to do a study before making absurd pronouncements.
Research? We don’t need no stinking research.
He didn’t really sat that did he?. Where’s the link?.
It is Ben’s link on this post.
Research? Suzanne does his research for him.
Just an observation as I took a tour of the state of Ohio with my daughter looking at colleges: Sure, I know I live in the still QUITE LIVEABLE suburbs of THE rat hole - “post industrial american” Midwest. I daily see the carnage on the way downtown- you know…. a future WALMART being built where Republic Steel once stood. I see the multitude of “for sale” signs on the streets of our “hiP” uppity suburbs and in my home town—but I was quite surprised to see the FOR SALE SIGNS on the small country roads and towns as I made my way to that college Mecca [MIAMI U ] in the far corner of the state- alarming!! to even this dedicated doom and gloomer—FYI
hope everyone emailed watts ,that dipsht
2006 will equall 2004
and 07 will equal 03 pricing- take that to the bank
It’s in the Bag!
Gary can talk out of both sides of that lying mouth. He rubs me wrong worse than Liar-rah.
Just curious, but where will all these realtors, mortgage officers, builders etc. find work when this bubble implodes? There are over 500K brokers/realtors in California alone. Will they find jobs in CA, and how many will sell their homes (or “investment properties”)?
who the hell knows. one things for sure, it’s not gonna be pretty. people are pissed off out here enough as it is with the overcrowding, gangs, racial tensions, state money problems, etc. cali’s a ticking timebomb and this housing crash may just set it off. i’m saving, storing, preparing, and planning my escape.
let’s not forget all the illegals who build the houses, do the landscaping, cleaning, etc. what are they going to do? a crash could have a huge ripple effect and cause all sorts of havoc with employment. if that happens expect a spike in crime…
Story in Sacramento is the day laborers are sitting on the curb and waiting a lot longer for a pick up truck to come by and take them to a job site. I worked a construction job a long time ago and I remember watching those guys just being treated like crap and working in unsafe conditions.
I think that present warm and fuzzy feelings about allowing illegals to stay because they’re keeping the cost of living (production, really) down, will evaporate when flippers are forced to compete with them for jobs no “American” would be willing to do.
Join the NRA and take personal defense classes. Right to carry will prtect you. Buy your wad cutters now.
WADCUTTERS? i start with a glaser safety slug,followed by hydrashoks.if you are carrying a jframe try nyclads,and consider crimson trace grips,thats what my wife carries.
Glasers & hydrashoks? You just described my Beretta’s first clip! Wife has a compact Taurus, and our shepherd has a keen sense for potential targets.
Your average illegal can live on beans and tortilla every day which costs about a dollar or two. They can bunch up 10-20 to a home to save further on living costs. They can ride out long periods of umemployment. They can self-deport back to Family ranch or home in their home country and stay there till next US economic boom when they will recross back across border.
If any of you bloggers have never been to Tijuana you can just visit Santa Ana, (Orange county, CA). Cruise down First st or bristol/flower ave. Wear a Sombrero.
“let’s not forget all the illegals who build the houses, do the landscaping, cleaning, etc. what are they going to do? a crash could have a huge ripple effect and cause all sorts of havoc with employment. if that happens expect a spike in crime”
I think that Just being in this country illegally is a crime. Also, since many, if not most illegal construction crew are paid cash they do not show up in US employment/unemployment figures.
There is also a huge(20% )underground economy here in LA where the undocumented and recent immigrants can engage in all sorts of selling/buying and other economic transactions which escape State/fed tax authorities. The unemployed illegal can always find work in the numerous LA auto junkyards and repair shops which are often the main places for underground untaxed transactions. Go to any huge auto junkyard and you will see large congregations of illegals doing odd jobs for a little subsistence cash. This is very prevalent in older heavily -immigrant locales such as scentral LA, Wilmington, Harbor city,Boyle hts, East torrance, Gardena, East LA, Baldwin park, La Puente, sun Valley, Pacoima, ect.
let’s not forget all the illegals… [represent] a spike in crime[.]
That is the question. No one knows how this will play out exactly, only that it’ll be bad……real bad.
I’m going to hire a few of the unemployed Realtors to sit around and slap each other silly for a week or so, minimum wage of course. Just for my own humor of course.
My guess is that most of them will try and find a job servicing the homeless gay men down in the seedy part of town in an attempt to get their self-respect back.
Then, they’ll go to Wal-mart as greeters, for the big bucks.
Just my guess of course.
Macdonald’s, Carls JR, DEl Taco, burger KIng, Jack-in-the-box always looking for new hires. Unemployed illegals as crews, unemployed RE Agents as Managers-asistant mgrs, shift supervisors, ect.
Transferable functional skills from RE to Fast food supervisor: Ability to Talk and communicate with the public, and basic computing skills.
“a job servicing the homeless gay men down in the seedy part of town in an attempt to get their self-respect back.”
um.
who was it who was whining about the “ass-poundings” posts?
stick to the devils ye know.
It will be scary. Most of them don’t have skills to do a real job. A few will go back to their previous occupations. This, coupled with all the illegals who do construction is going to annihilate the economy.
Anyone notice that only 1/3 of salesperson-wannbees passed on their (first, but maybe not) attempt in June?
OT, but here is a $1.25 Mil townhouse in SF Bay Area.
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/rfs/184638674.html
Nice, but not $1.25 Mil nice
i’m amazed at how upper middle class places are going for 1M+ these days. where are all these millionaires coming from?
It doesn’t take a millionaire to buy a $1M property, unless you’re paying cash. Many have been bought with no money down, which could mean the “owner” of the $1M property has a negative net worth.
That is scary.
that’s unreal…. 1M home loan, NO MONEY DOWN?? damn… and we wonder why we’re in this mess. i’ve said this many times before, but lenders can’t possibly be that stupid. they must be packaging up most of these loans and selling them to the gov’t. otherwise it just doesn’t make sense. anyone else agree? i mean, why else would lenders take on all that risk?
SoCalMtgGuy can give you more details on how common this has been in SoCal.
Indeed, especially since you can buy a stand-alone home in Tiburon for that price.
I agree, it looks nice but too pricey. It is Manhattan like prices.
Yup, Mill Valley–not too surprising. Realtor says it’s a 3/2 and 2064 sqft, which works out to $605/sqft. Then you have HOA fees easily at $500/mo. Mind you, I’ve seen total dumps in MV for $1200/sqft. But those were SFH, with ample land for rebuild. This is a good example of Marin’s legendary price entitlement.
I posted the following quote in the Weekend Topics thread, not realizing that the Las Vegas Review-Journal article was already under discussion here. This is the opposing point of view from the Las Vegas Business Press (also from an article dated today):
“We just report what we find out, but it was still pretty scary to hear recently that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the federal agency that has been insuring banks since the Great Depression in the 1930s, doesn’t have ‘the historical data’ to be sure whether Las Vegas house prices are overpriced by as much as 50 percent.”
Here’s the full Business Press article:
http://www.lvbusinesspress.com/articles/2006/07/21/columnists/col01.txt
“‘I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.’”
Gary, please stop talking. I’m starting to feel embarrassed for you.
This Murphy guy is funny! No bubble! Jusy like there was not a tulip bubble in 17th century Holland, or a RE bubble in Florida in the 1920s, or a tech bubble in 2000, etc.
My dentist left a successful 30-year practice in a small midwest town a few months ago and moved to San Fran to seek his fortune. He left a town where $100K could still buy you a nice house. I wonder if he has recovered from the shock of finding out that in Frisco, $100K won’t even buy Fido’s doghouse.
That is a crazy move. Must be midlife crisis kicking in. In most places, dentist are among the high earners.
My upstairs neighbor is a dentist. She and her boyfriend split a small 2-bedroom apartment (same size as mine) for $1450/month. That’s what $100k/year buys you in San Francisco.
If that dentist had asked my advice of moving to the Bay area, he would have stayed put wherever he was. Good luck to him. Hope he finds a few rich clients who have a mouth full of cavities. More likely, will be doing free clinics for the hordes of poor folks (no racism here - but you get the picture) there where they have never seen a dentist before. Pay will be in food stamps. LOL
Since when can you change your prediction? Gary, go hide. Go hide fast… and shut the f**k up.
You already lost, enough already.
O.C. HOUSING TIMELINE
A look at key events in Orange County’s last housing cycle
–1988: Mission Viejo Co., one of the region’s largest landowners for decades, seeks more land, indicative of the construction push.
–1989: Annual appreciation rate for O.C. homes peaks at 24.1 percent in May. Price hits $216,000.
–1990: In September, O.C. home values drop 3 percent vs. previous year, one sign the housing boom that began in 1985 is over. Two large landowners, Irvine Co. and Santa Margarita Co., announce layoffs and plans to curtail development.
–1991: Waning momentum pushes the O.C. median value to a peak of $223,000 in June.
–1992: William Lyon, a large, successful homebuilder for 30 years, is forced into a smaller operation.
–1993: Fifty-six percent of Orange County sellers of detached homes sell the residence for less than original purchase price. Median loss is $30,000.
–1994: County government’s bankruptcy deals another blow to beleaguered real-estate market. Lakeview Real Estate, third-busiest brokerage in Orange County, goes out of business.
–1995: Homebuilder Fieldstone lays off employees — first cuts in its 14-year history. Homebuilder Baldwin Co. files for bankruptcy reorganization.
–1996: Santa Margarita Co. barely avoids bankruptcy with a recovery plan.
–1997: O.C. median value falls to a low of $185,000 in January. The year-over-year home price declines stop in May.
7 years from top to bottom ….
Read about Gary is blaming it on the condo converstion… he stopped tracking on his site since February..
converstion = conversion…
Still 90 degrees at 5am this morning in Tucson AZ, Scottsdale showing 97 still, good day to go House Hunting?
You guys must have skanky wives or girlfriends to consider that scaggy model to be anything special