Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Incentives? Growing inventories? Here are some examples from the topics thread and the web. “Tucson and Essex County, Mass. both made our annual list of the most overpriced places in the United States. In fact, Essex County, which lies north of Boston, topped off the ranking.”
“‘We saw a lot of waterfront property being bought and smaller homes being torn down and replaced by million dollar mansions during the dot-com boom,’ explains Sara Young, at the Cape Ann Chamber of Commerce. ‘Now you’ll find a lot of those homes on the market, and they aren’t selling because nobody can afford them anymore.’”
Several readers were from Austin, Texas. “Meanwhile, mini-bubble central here in Austin, TX. ‘The booming Central Texas housing market, which is well on its way to a fourth consecutive record year. Out-of-state investors continue to flock to the market, according to broker Peter Sajovich. Sajovich estimates that investors account for as many as one-third of June’s 2,980 home sales. ‘They are picking up any excess supply that we have,’ he said.”
One wasn’t pleased. “I used to live in Westlake HIlls. I loved it, but I couldn’t afford to buy anything there now. Lots are being bought up by condo developers (!) and large properties broken up to build tract-like housing. Not only are the locusts running up prices, they’re destroying the very thing that was good about the area.” Another added,
One posted this from Las Vegas. “We just report what we find out, but it was still pretty scary to hear recently that the FDIC doesn’t have ‘the historical data’ to be sure whether Las Vegas house prices are overpriced by as much as 50 percent.”"The agency quoted one econometric model that predicted the recent speculative boom could have artificially inflated house prices by that much.”
And this from California. “The population of the city of Goleta went from 30.6 thousand in 2005 to 30.3 thousand in 2006, said Watkins, a decrease of .9 percent. The population of the city of Santa Barbara also decreased during the same period, as did the populations of other coastal cities in the state, including San Francisco and Monterey.”
“‘We expect Goleta City’s population to decline…The shrinkage is a result of high home prices, changing demographics, and the lack of opportunity for young workers,’ states the report presented by UCSB economist Bill Watkins, at UCSB.”
this just in from the nytimes:
http://tinyurl.com/llqb6
“Re-refinancing, and Putting Off Mortgage Pain”
LIrenter. Have you noticed that the chart “Newsday” prints in the sunday real estate section, showing median selling prices, has disapeared.
The last time I checked, maybe 2 month’s ago, it was showing a 5% decline in median prices, since January. The last couple of times I got the sunday paper I couldn’t find it. I figured it was pressure from advertisers to get rid of it.
“With his new loan, his third adjustable-rate mortgage, Mr. Perry, a former technology project manager, cashed about $200,000 out of his home’s equity and is investing it into his four-year-old financial planning business. “I could have sold my house and made my family move,” said Mr. Perry, 42, who lives with his wife and a 3-year-old son in Danville, about 20 miles east of Oakland. “But I didn’t do that. I said, ‘Look, I want to start a new business,’ and this product allowed me to do that.””
Remind me to stay away from financial planners. I wonder if he’s going to suggest that his clients do the same thing that he did.
My boss has been a Financial Advisor for the last 30 years. No matter how many times I try to show him the statistics, facts, articles, etc.. he is still convinced that “now is the time to buy”, “prices aren’t going to fall”, “it’s different here”.
I just look at him and shake my head. How damn blind can one possibly be?!
There are a bunch of people at work that use a particular financial planner so many years ago, I sat down and spoke with him for about 90 minutes. This was back around 2002.
I wanted to see if he could read charts and he couldn’t. No clue on what Technical Analysis was. I don’t think that he was that good with Fundamental Analysis either.
I asked him about his mutual fund picking approach. Every year, he picks the top two funds in various kinds of fund types and offers them.
His clients rode the bubble down. I stayed far away from this guy.
There’s a financial advice talk radio show on the air in Boston (not sure if it’s syndicated) and for the second time I heard the host Rick Schaefer tell a caller that now is a good time to by property. He said “I’m telling you, property prices are not going to fall. No way.”
I do not know one fee-only planner who is recommending real estate right now. They feel the market is overheated. Of course, they are real planners with actual education and experience behind them rather than just salespeople.
The guy was financing his business. In any business there is certain amount of risk involved. I was in business and know how difficult is to get any kind of loan when starting out.
What could he possibly need 200K for? An office, a computer and some business cards? He’s a financial planner not a ship builder.
marketing
If it’s the kind of marketing that requires trips to Vegas and Hawaii, I see what you’re saying.
If it’s the usual local Danville-Contra Costa-East Bay kind of thing, even expensive club memberships, then maybe.
Otherwise, what would he do with that money?
Toys?
Maybe (for once) this is a case of a borrower preparing for the worst. It’s very hard qualifying for any type of mortgage financing without a 2-yr self-employment track record so he might be getting a loan while he can just to be on the safe side.
It’s certainly a better game plan than spending every penny of your savings, running up your credit cards, ruining your credit score and then trying to refinanceas a last minute bailout.
If i were in his position I would probably do the same thing (not on an adjustable loan, though. I would have gone with a line if credit if I did not need access to all the money at once).
Several years ago, my Financial Planner revealed he had lost a ton of money on a rental SFH on Costa Mesa, CA. He had lost my wife and me about $25k during the dot.com bubble.
If you can’t recognize the writing on the wall, and you just spout the conventional rhetoric, you have no added value.
Many Financial Advisors are like realtors. They just need to take a couple tests and find a franchise to work for, not much else is needed. They make a killing off the fees they charge mom and pop. Unfortunately, they give the real professionals a bad name!
However, even the professionals couldn’t stop people from losing money in the .com. Most of the best saw it coming. My husband kept saying it isn’t right, they aren’t making any money yet their stocks are going through the roof. Months later he even bought Cisco and Microsoft. Fell for all the fluff. He knew better and got burned. It was a good tax right off. This time around, we’re going with our gut instinct!
The level of difficulty between licensing for an RE license and a series 6/7 are worlds apart. You definitely need more than a pulse for the latter but I agree with the rest.
We have a finacial planner that comes on local news to give advice. This joker several times suggested that people cash out equity to invest in various ventures. Nice! Only the experts invest on leverage and pull it off, but even they get burned. Joe Sixpack is not leverage investor.
‘Sajovich estimates that investors account for as many as one-third of June’s 2,980 home sales’
If that’s true Austin, it’s going to be a problem.
Locally, the Flagstaff market has turned, IMO. The number of new homes for sale is staggering. Other N AZ newspapers now have multiple for-sale ads touting ‘priced under appraisal.’
an acquaintance in austin is going to start ‘flipping’ real estate instead of going back to work as a teacher (took time off for kids) - nah, no bubble in austin! i hope she comes to her senses soon.
we got a random postcard in the mail from a HO yesterday:
“Last month we placed our home on the market and after only two days, we found a buyer. Unfortunately, the buyer was unable to close on the sale.
Therefore, we have chosen to run an open house this Sat-Sun 10-5 and will be selling our home Sunday evening to the highest bidder - full information and terms will be provided at the open house.
Please feel free to stop by, or pass along this card to anyone looking to live in a resort-style home.”
“will be selling sunday evening” - are you sure about that?
mls long island - inventory still rising at over 33,663, prices coming down slowly…
Some chump published a book recently sayiing this is the new way to sell your house. He was on several “Business” TV shows a few weeks back. In case you have not noticed this seems to be listed in Craigslist a lot now too. Truth be told, even such gimmicks may not work in a slow market.
Selling at the market price, either through an auction or though a conventional listing, always works. Trouble is most people are not willing to accept the market price.
Over on the SDCIA forum, that Clairmont flipper in deep trouble with four kids pleaing for advice is now getting ‘out of the box’ ideas like this one:
What? Give it away? Are You crazy? (Well, some folks think I am, but thats only because their ComfortZone/ThinkingBox is about a big, and about as sturdy, as the cheap 1′x1′x1′ cardboard moving boxes you get at Home Depot)
How can You give away a Beautifully and Totally Refurbished $600,000 Sunny San Diego House?
Well, one way is to Team Up with a National deep-pocket Charity-type organization, and sell 700 Raffel Tickets for $1000 each, or 7000 for $100 each. You keep the first $600,000, and the Organization gets the rest. You Win. They Win. The Winner Wins. Even the Purchasers of the Raffle Tickets win, with a Tax Deductable Donation to the Charity (to the extent the law allows of course!) The Organization can/will do almost all of the selling and promotion. It would be their primary FundRaising focus for the next several months, and in that time, would more-than-likely be on the Front page of a buncha papers around the Nation (and probably around the world!)
OK, now that you have that underway, You’ll probably want to attract even more attention, so furnish the place to the Max! Again, Team up with National Retailers like Home Depot/Lowes, Ethan Allen, Sears, Best Buy, Sherwin-Williams, Pergo Floors, Galleries of America, etc, etc, to really deck the place out. Do you think these companies might do a spot or two on your Home? THEY will be eager to pay you to highlight their contributions. Where? Lots of places, but most notably in National Magazines that will want to be in on the raffle/contest. (see how it morphs into something bigger with each step or idea?) What about common everyday HomeOwner Services? Culligan Water, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Title, State Farm Insurance, Bank of America, Green Mountain Power, AT&T, Cox Communications ….. this list is endless too!
http://tinyurl.com/j756g
BWAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Like charities and home-improvement companies are just lining up to have their good names associated with some bagholder clown.
Here’s my competing idea, which I might graciously post on the SDCIA forum board for the Clairmont Bagholder: set up a live, pay-per-view webcam to show your progression from greed and stupidity (OK, we missed that phase already) to uneasiness, alarm, dispair, and finally, resignation and the beginnings of WISDOM as you crawl forth from the ashes and debris of your easy-money flipper dreams.
gotta love the clown. Real solid on his facts. Raffle tickets like that are non-deductible.
I’ve noticed the RE section in our North Bay Area paper (Press Democrat) getting Bigger and Bigger and Bigger. Lately they’ve been turning it into 2 and now 3 sections to make it “blend in” with the other sections.
I no longer bother to look at the page count in the LATimes RE sections.
It is now sufficient to weigh them.
I guess I should plan on a bigger tip for my paper delivery dude come December 25th.
sm_landlord,
By the Christmas selling season, the LATimes will outweight the encylopedia britanica. They’ll do something inventive like throw the sports section in the middle of condo ads and move the sudoku into the “featured homes” pages.
Oh… the “best buy” ad will be mixed with a feature on West side homes and the Toys R Us ad will note that “there has never been a better time to buy a home.”
Add to the home ads desperate car dealers, plasma TV salemen, etc.
That paper delivery dude will need an F350 do to the rounds.
Neil
Say, anyone notice that the new paperboy looks a lot like their old realtor?
Good one Sammy….
Seattle Times RE section was growing in size for a while. Now they’ve started putting the new condo ads in the front section of the paper instead. That’s a first!
I had such an overwhelming response to my flippers in trouble galley, that I made a seperate blog for it:
flippersintrouble.blogspot.com
Updated with today’s listings, there’s over 200 loss-takers in the four-county Sacramento area. I’ll continue to publish my statistics over at:
sacrealstats.blogspot.com
We just broke the population-adjusted inventory record.
Max
We just broke the population-adjusted inventory record.
Woo-hoo!!
how about carry /commision cost= better deduct another 5-8%
No assumptions here. The numbers are the best case scenerio. That’s what makes this so scary. If you count the number of people asking for a 5% profit or less, the number jumps to 455. 8% and we’re over 1000…. That would make for a huge gallery.
Your flippersintrouble blog is brilliant Max. I wish we had one for Ventura County, CA.
That blog represents a lot of work, Max. I thank you for your trouble.
Chandler, AZ –> One of the houses on the market in my subdivision just lowered their price from 751K to 712K. Still no one coming by. I see Zip is showing ~52,300 houses for sale in Maricopa county….WOW!! Thats up nearly 600 houses from yesterday! You have to feel pretty stupid if you bought within the last year.
A 5% drop in price? BFD.
A rule of thumb for real estate:
If you’re getting offers, your price is close.
If people are looking but not making offers, you’re about 5-10% high on price.
If nobody is coming by, you’re more than 10% wrong on price.
One more rule:
If no one ever looks at yer house, bend over baby!
Also: Chandler AZ, A house I walk my dog by has twice lowered it’s price, then put up a ‘for lease’ or ‘Sale’ sign now it’s ‘for rent’ with an option to buy… This train wreck is going to be U G L Y !!
Yeah a lease with an option to buy, they really think that crap is going to work. The realtors look like they are being charitable with that crap or something. Like oh you can rent this house for a little bit and if you become a qualified future home owner then you can buy the dump and live in debt servitude for ever. Aren’t you so lucky just to have the oppprtunity. We are doing this for you. Lease options are bull shxx. It puts money in the pocket of the home owner now, that renter could have used to better their education so that this Country can get back to a real economy other than six percent commission or five points. You know this reminds of another scenario we used to have in this Country it was called the “MAFIA”.
I know this may be off meme here, but houses around me for some reason I cannot fathom have started to sell. Zip code is 92026. Not just getting a sold sign on them, but actually they seem to be closing escrow and everything. This area is seriously overpriced, and for the life of me I don’t know how they found a few more “Greater Fools”. I am sorely tempted to sell my place and rent if stuff is going to start moving again.
I rent in zip 90025 - west la. Two SF houses on my block went into escrow after being listed for about 3 weeks. The condos seem to be moving slower and seeing more “for sale” signs on them. There are so many people with money in LA that are waiting on the sidelines. They will keep the prices high - especially for SF homes.
Yeah! Wer’e diffeent. That’s all the Fed reserve has to see to raise interest 18th time another 1/4 point. West LA will eat it just like everyone else
Costa Mesa?
Costa Mesa would be 92626 (or 92627). I am in CM and have not seen housing movement. In the last month, inventory seems to have crept up by 25 or so (around 5% of the ~500 level). In the last couple of months within my area I’ve seen one “In Escrow” and one “Sale Pending” sign, but other than that the signage is showing upward creepage, especially on condos/townhomes.
Seems they’ve started to take most of the signs off the street corners at the end of the weekend and put them back up on Friday evening or Saturday morning. They used to just leave them there all the time. Probably the city was receiving complaints about the sign pollution.
My wife and I counted 7 SFH’s for sale down the street, in two clusters, along a single street that is only about 2-3 blocks long. Of course, this is much higher than most streets around here, but 7 homes within 3 blocks??? Yikes. They were nice homes, but way too expensive.
I believe 92026 is Escondido (north SD county). Yes, just today we were driving through Vista (near Escondido) and saw quite a few “sold” signs. It was a bit disturbing, to say the least. In one location, though, we saw more for sales signs than ever before, so not really sure what is going on at the moment. I do believe more sales are coming through. Expect to see higher sales, M-O-M, in July, IMHO.
Sorry, 92026 - Escondido, north end of San Diego county. My area is north of 78, west of 15.
North Escondido hill country is pretty spectacular terrain with few tracts. Can you make any observations about the kind of houses you are selling? I don’t think there are many tracts in that area.
I was on my way to the beach in oceanside, which is pretty damn empty considering its so damn hot. Maybe gas prices are keeping people in their homes? Who knows, but I also took inventory of all the places along the 78 freeway that deal with housing - windows, flooring, furniture, appliances, marble, granite, etc. All will feel the pain.
And I don’t buy that people are buying much around here. Maybe a couple here and there, but sales are dead. Lots of people do “fake” sales in SD to give the impression of phony demand for their agents, who will try to sell at a later date. Its all smoke and mirrors in real estate.
sigalam:
IMO, the trend will win out over any observational Dead Cat Bounce anomalies. Find your salvation in the data:
Look at the June YOY Median Price numbers for San Diego NC Inland:
Escondido: June 05 - $470,000……June 06 - $492,500….. 4.79%
San Marcos: June 05 - $552,000……June 06 - $519,000…. -5.89%
Vista June 05 - $508,000…….June 06 - $508,000…. 1.60%
Ignore little up ticks in house sales, the trend is UGLY on the DOWN side in the wake of double digit appreciation in that area and only slated to get much worse.
Fret not, my freind…
correction Vista June 05 = $500,000
(cut and paste challenged)
There will be many sucker rallies to trap every last one, until the final collapse.
as they say… Even a dead cat will bounce…..
Come on people, let’s get some more photos on the HBB gallery.
I think Ben is changing his photo blog software, so recent submissions are not yet posted.
Great picture of a TAMPA FLA. neighborhood!
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/
looks like a RE graveyard
Here is the LAS VEGAS MARKET in a nutshell http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/07/tracking-las-vegasclark-county.html
SCal housing update:
A medium size mid-rise condo/apt complex is going up just north of 101 free on lankersheim right across from universal studios. This area is either Universal city or Toluca lake.
The platinum triangle area oF Anaheim is seeing it’s first Massive mid-rise large condo/apt project almost completed. Address is 3 chapman i think. Project is located right off chapman ave right between 57 and 5 fwys, all very busy roads/fwys. Not a particularly attractive place for strolling around i think.
The city has cleared out and leveled huge slices of land along state college blvd between chapman and katella for condos/apts/mixed use. The area is just west of anaheim stadium. Another massive block-sized muli-unit housing project sits right at corner of state college/katella ave.
They are talking about as many as 1 dozen or so massive muli-unit projects being put up in the platinum triangle.
Another rather small project going up at corner of pico and century park east, where open land is scarce and dear. Really squeezing/squishing this complex into a tight space.
Inner-city/ coastal area HB’s must be planning for massive future demand for this type of housing even in the early stages of a RE Bubble decline. For anaheim area , it would be working class to middle class Immigrants or white collar office workers. In Toluca lake it would be Entertainment employees/professionals.
I’m familiar with the areas you discussed. They will be toast.
“Orange County’s job growth slowed again in June, rising at an annual rate of just 0.8 percent, the state Employment Development Department said Friday. That’s compared with an average growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2005. Statewide, the annual rate of job growth was 1.6 percent in the 12 months through June.” Doesn’t look like the OC is booming….
Read about Homeseller sweetens deal with Hawaii trip
Owner of Newport Shores house believes throwing in a vacation could lure a buyer in a climate of waning sales.The couple dropped the price by $41,000, to $1,549,000, since they first put the house up for sale in June. The four plane tickets, worth about $2,000, are his way to make his house stand out from the 15,000 homes currently for sale in Orange County, including eight in his neighborhood.
Read about Models in 13 neighborhoods open this weekend at old Tustin base. Model homes in 13 neighborhoods at major project are open this weekend in Tustin, Irvine. Prices on the units will range from about $400,000 for some still-to-be completed condos in one neighborhood to $1.5 million for the stars of the project – the basement houses at the Gables. These are “California” basements, meaning they are about 3 feet below ground level; windows are about a foot off the ground. In all, 10 houses will have basements, and initial buyer interest is high.
I will try to stop over there tomorrow…
No changes in my area (`burbs outside of NE Philly). Same amount of inventory; same prices. Some homes have been sitting on the market for months; some sell in a day (usually the ones priced slightly below comps - though a townhouse I was curious about sold in a day at a price I think was too high). I’m hoping this is the calm before the storm. If it merely stays flat around here, it will take forever for me to be able to afford something.
Read about Villages of Columbus, in conjunction with the City of Irvine, is proud to offer a total of 13 homes in the Savannah neighborhood for affordable homeownership. I don’t qualify
The middle class gets screwed in so many ways…
I know what you mean about the middle class getting screwed, but I seriously doubt that you would want to live in one of those places.
Unless the HOA or the city provides counseling, addiction treatment, and mental health services on site, those developments will rapidly degenerate into slums.
I was being sarcastic… I don’t like Irvine that much. I like it here in Laguna Niguel. Newport Beach is probably my favorite. So why do you think these places will turn into slums? So a mil will buy a future slum?
Irvine is changing. It borders Sanata Ana and I rememebr even in 2002 that the northeastern neighborhoods near the 5 were becoming sketchier. More rentals, and poorly maintained properties showing up. Irvine will get low income neighborhoods as the older tracts built in the 70’s age.
These “affordable housing communities” are a glorified form of “the projects.” In ten years, they will *be* “the projects.” Be happy you don’t qualify.
It won’t take ten years. During the 90’s I watched a San Bernadino neighborhood go from “nice” to “this place makes me nervous, lock the doors” in less than two years.
Date KingCo %Change since May 7
7-May 7302
15-May 7486 3%
21-May 7665 5%
11-Jun 8099 11%
18-Jun 8154 12%
24-Jun 8352 14%
1-Jul 8417 15%
8-Jul 8758 20%
15-Jul 9057 24%
22-Jul 9139 25%
Inventory still creeping up. Homes on the high end (CA equity locusts have very discriminating taste) selling well to hold up prices and keep inventory from really expanding. Homes in the mid to lower tier are sitting…and sitting…while the inventory continues to inch up.
Drove thru Kirkland yesterday, amazing the change from last summer. Last summer maybe 2 or 3 signs and bidding wars. This summer, for sale signs all over the place. Seattle is behind by CA by about a year. Can still get a pretty good rental home for $1500 up here.
Downtown Seattle condos are starting with the “incentives”.
- “Pay no homeowners dues til 2008!!! (This weekend only!)”
- “Introductory interest rate 3.875%!!! Extended one week more!!!”
- “For a limited time only!! Free upgrades and an additional 2nd parking spot for FREE!!! ”
Actually, a 2nd parking spot seems like a pretty big deal for a downtown in a city that has no public transport to speak of. There’s got to be some small print with that offer.
Folks: I beleive the FOMC is going to pause (August). From things I read, they’re more scared of deflation (and the unraveling of a propped-up housing market) than inflation. This may ignite a brief equity rally (mid-August) before the September/October storm.
debtors like inflation,but can’t live w deflation-no way
That’s what I’m reading in the financial news outlets but I also see lots of price increases for stuff like food and energy. Yeah, they aren’t core but we still have to pay them. My personal feeling is that inflation is running pretty strong. And housing prices aren’t part of the CPI, right? Just rents.
I had a look at a bunch of charts in a variety of sectors and couldn’t find any sector that looks bullish. It seems like the Fed is withdrawing liquidity and maybe that will be the approach with the pause. Withdrawing liquidity will slow down the economy and prices too. Eventually.
I disagree KLF;….I think inflation is way out of control and I believe the FED is willing to take on a mild recession and defend the dollar….Will see….
My wife and I just got back from a walk around S. Redondo Beach (Los Angeles) and she made an interesting observation; all the “take one” flyer boxes were fairly full at the (many) properties for sale. This was at 5 PM on a Saturday afternoon. Last year you wouldn’t be able to find any flyers left in the late afternoon. The writing is on the wall.
Don’t take this the wrong way…
But last year, the realtors were so confident of the sale, they never bothered to do their job an put more than 10 fliers in the box!!!
Now… they’re actually having to do their job. One day they’ll wake up and realize they need to “have the talk” with their clients about getting the asking price down to market price.
I don’t understand why any realtor wouldn’t insist a home start at “market price” and instead start at 120% market price and walk it down. There must be an expense to marketing a home that they know won’t sell. Maybe there are still a few flippers left who think they need to buy quick… Maybe… (PT Barnum made a fortune from these types.) But most of that type cannot get a mortgage for $1 Million+.
BTW, did everyone read the LA times story today on how the middle class is leaving LA and the population is becoming polarized into wealthy and working class? Sorry… it was the dead tree edition. Hmmm… traditionally the middle class pulls a region out of a downturn via their productivity and ambition.
I think a lot of flippers are going to wake up and find that their “in the bag” profits left the state years ago.
Prices will drop until salaries can support the prices. With the expected exodus of jobs (or just shear cutbacks, e.g., Disney and the rest of “Hollywood” whom are cutting production schedules like I’ve never seen before).
I’m begining to understand why Warren buffet noted that high end realestate will be hit hardest in this correction.
The floor is about to be pulled out from way to many metropolitan areas.
Neil
I didn’t see the article but not surprised. A couple of months ago the Press Enterprise had a similar story about how many people are leaving the Riverside and San Bern area and moving out of state. Menifee used to be farms now it is nothing but neighborhoods crammed together. That area is going to be hit very hard. Developers are going to be left with allot of empty homes.
Irvine, gotta love it.
This is a mostly completed condo hi-rise. Not 100% completed yet, but people are able to move in and buy. It’s an interview with the president of the homeowners’ association. I imagine a deadpan voice as he explains the $1000 HOA fees. Oh, since the condos start at about 0.5 mil, that means one will pay $1500/month just for the “privilege” of owing, not including buying the place or paying the mortgage.
Irvinites must be pissing quarters and pooping tightly-rolled logs of $20 bills.
I wonder how many employees of nearby DiTech (and many other mortgage lenders in Irvine) think this is a good buy.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1208622.php
$1000/mo….WTF? I think people are going insane. I was amazed at the repartment HOA’s here in PHX being $250 - $300. My Goodness!!!!
“Irvinites must be pissing quarters and pooping tightly-rolled logs of $20 bills.”
LOL
I still learn of what places around S.E. Phoenix are conversions and what are not. Another thing I learned is our rent is going from $940 to $1004 per month. That’s a 6.8% increase. My sister just got a new consulting gig in Scottsdale where I used to live. And I work in the part of Phoenix that is 4 miles west of where her new job is. So we are going to consider a 2 bedroom place in Scottsdale. I told her that it’s more expensive there, for one. Secondly, it will cost her about $700 to move. It will cost me only under $125, since all my stuff will fit in a $25 rented U-Haul pickup truck for about 3 or 4 trips. Sis does not want to drive 13 miles north. She has a dog and wants to be able to go home for lunch and see the dog. My commute is 14 miles. I’m not going to pay her way to move. Maybe if she writes down the economics, she will realize it’s cheaper for us to renew the lease in S.E. Phoenix. After all, she expects to move to Portland in 5 months. I have another sister who is also extremely clueless about saving money and economics. They are ages 49 and 51. I often wonder if we really had the same parents because I am a very good saver.
Failed condo projects starting to pile up here in West Palm Beach, FL:
http://tinyurl.com/lytx2
You wouldn’t believe how many projects have already come out of the ground or that are trying to sell now. These will just be the first of many failures. I can’t believe that one building said it sold just 10% of the units so far (550Q). That thing has been marketing for months and months on end. The sad thing is, many of these buildings DID get finished and now, the flippers are trying to unload into a massive glutted market. Them’s the breaks, I guess.
Single family home listings from Portland, ME (04101, 04102 & 04103):
9/29/05 224
11/3/05 248
12/5/05 241
1/3/06 210
2/2/06 212
3/3/06 204
4/4/06 180
6/4/06 194
7/22/06 220
In the last month and a half, inventory seems to have nudged up. The next reading may offer more hints.
The job market here is booming, although most jobs don’t pay well and it’s not the local job market keeping the RE market relatively healthy. Rather, I believe it’s all the “outtastaters” (people from “away”) moving in with their housing profits and often telecommutable consulting enterprises. I’ve seen them called equity nomads, equity bandits and equity locusts.
Here in Portland, I view them as the equity calvary. Not only have they kept RE prices aloft, but they have infused a once tough port city with new life. This has been going on for 20 years now.
Many natives feel priced out and resent the power of the money from away.These natives are fleeing to northern Maine fueling a resurgence up there.
But many others appreciate the improvements brought about by the infusion of new blood, ideas and wealth from the outside. The world is flat and so are the 50 states. Places like Portland have benefitted.RE prices may very well collapse, but many don’t care as Maine is the end of their road and if you don’t plan to one day sell your home, price is of less importance.
Maine is the end of their road and if you don’t plan to one day sell your home, price is of less importance.
Mainer;…If its the end of the road its of NO importance….
New Port Richey, FL
House on market for $239,000 in cookie-cutter subdivision. Dropped from $265,000. Neighboring houses bought for $250,000 last summer. Open house, no one stopped by. I almost stopped and offered $150k just to see the look on the realtor’s face.
check back when they hit 2004 prices- its like a clock ticking back now
How about the look on your face when he accepts!
I’d be more worried about the color of my shorts at that time.
Despite the expected permitting of over 4000 homes to fulfill Goleta’s state-mandated Regional Housing Needs Assessment numbers, the report indicates “a very small number of new home construction relative to the population.”
Illiterate grammar aside, how can you call 4,000 new houses, in a city whose population is only 30,000, a “very small number”?
Portland Mainer
There does, however, seem to have been an explosion in inventory in the areas around Portland - So Po, Westbrook, etc. The out of staters have been propping the real estate up, but they are getting tired… I say this fall is a bloodbath in Maine, because I see a lot of empty houses out there…
In southeast Phoenix (Ahwatukee) you see a cheaply made sign on the I-10 off-ramps (at Warner, Ray, and Chandler) advertising a 4 bedroom 2 bath house for $500 down. I wonder if it’s interest only loan and if it costs $450,000? Ha!
Turn west on Chandler Blvd and you will see lots of home for sale signs. Why is everyone selling? And were are they going?
Yes, my sister and I drove west on Pecos to Desert Foothills, then north to Chandler Blvd and headed east. For several miles almost every residential street turnoff had “open House” or “For Sale” signs. One intersection had a cluster of 6 such signs! That is significantly more than I’ve seen last time I was between Desert foothills and the Chandler/Ray road “intersection.” Bubble is expanding.
In San Francisco yesterday, on a Saturday, I saw several open houses in my neighborhood. This appears a little unusual to me, especially the “New Price” notice on one of the signs. On the other hand, maybe this really isn’t “news” and we’ve been having many more lately on “odd” days; I haven’t been paying that close attention as I’m not going to any for several years yet, when I’ll have a better opportunity to become the “Low Ball King.”
Also, last Saturday (the 15th), I went to the Giants game at Pac Bell Park. For you locals, you have probably been amazed by the number of new condos that have gone up and are going up in that area of SOMA/China Basin (though it’s “nothing” compared to what I’ve seen in San Diego and hear reports of with regard to Vancouver, Vegas, Miami, etc.; my feeling is that San Francisco’s demand for condos will likely never be vanquished, even if it slows considerably through cycles, but that’s another issue).
Currently, there’s one newer project about half-completed (in a SW direction from the park, heading toward the 280 ramps at 6th Street) that looks like it could perhaps double the number coming online versus within the past few years… though perhaps some of them are apartments.
In any case, after leaving the game, probably between 4 pm and 5 pm on a Saturday - there were workers and moving cranes and such all over the job sites. Still working away…
4 pm? On a Saturday? In July? This seems to me like desperation to have the project finished before the condo market in the City sees a bigger slowdown.
Hoboken, NJ: seeing an explosion in FSBO open houses with outrageous asking prices (i.e., they all think the housing boom is going strong)(; the realtor open houses seem (relatively) more reasonable, with price reductions (still not big enough, but definitely a trend). The question is, when will the FSBOs give in?
The high end of the San Diego market is tanking, big time. From the lastest DataQuick numbers:
Area # Sold June 2006 June 2005 % Change
Yr-to-Yr
LA JOLLA 82 $1,014,432 $1,155,000 -12.17%
RANCHO SANTA FE 17 $2,175,000 $2,578,500 -15.65%
In the SD Union-Tribune today (Sun) there are several developer ads that offer no HOAs and the like. My favorite is this one, though:
A dream home begins with a dream price. Approximately $350/month*
The * refers to the fine print, which reads:
30-year fixed rate loan/fully amortized. Loan amount $417,000. Rate 6.875% APR 7.064%. Total principal and interest payment of $2739.39. Seller pays interest portion of payment for first 6 months, buyer to pay principal portion. 90% loan to value. Interest rate subject to change without notice. (etc.)
——–
If you do the math, it works out that the seller, rather than lowering the price by $14K+ does this little finance dance. Of course, some buyers are stupid enough to see this as a great deal.
Overall, though, it is less sneaky and bad as those ads offering low payments based on wacky financing (option I/O, etc.).
In other news, the NYTimes has a big article about people refinancing into ARMs to keep payments down. It’s not a very good article as it glosses over the fact that these people are betting on increasing property values–mentions it, but just in passing.
Inventory in 91104 (Pasadena), Altadena and La Canada keeps increasing. Reduced prices have been increasing steadily as well, and right after the 4th of July jumped within a week. 91104 from 21 to 42 (reduced), while La Canada from 21 to 30 (reduced). Anybody observed this one week jump elsewhere? It looked like a few realtors in this area acted at unison.
The Gallatin Valley (Bozeman, MT) MLS now has 1299 residential listings, up from ~1100 in mid May. That comes conservatively to 1 in every 25 homes on the market. ~10% of these have accepted firm or contingent offers, but many of these contingent offers sit on the MLS for a long time as buyers can’t sell their current properties. And based anecdotally on street signs, I’d guess we have as many FSBO’s as accepted offers.
In a nutshell, RE here is crashing much faster than I would have guessed.
This wins best price reduction of the week here in Idaho. Now that its 10K less, this 1.7 million dollar house will definitely move!
http://www.cbaspen.com/Default.cfm/Page=/ForSale/Cat=/ShowPropertyInfo/PropertyType=/Residential/ML_Number=/98251654.htm
I just blows me, this kind of nickel and diming. They dont even have an idea of the losses they will look at if they do not move quick.
Carrying costs are howmuchamonth?
WOW - less than a one percent discount (.59% to be exact!) Sign me up! Since its Boise, there must be an unlimited number of people looking for $1.7M homes on .5 acres. It was built in 2005 and looks lived in or else staged. Wonder what this “massive estate” sold for new?
Lastly, the remarks section states something to the effect “that we have only began” - I believe they are subconsciously referring to the price discounts that is. Give me a call when the price drops below $750-800K then I will low ball them some more.
There still appear to be an endless supply of greater fools remaining here in San Francisco. A house down the block from me went on sale ~ two weeks ago and just went sale pending earlier this week. $1.1M for a very small three BR / 2BA SFH (~ 1,800 sq feet) in an OK part of town (Ingleside Terrace). We’ll see if this closes escrow or not. It’s very discouraging to continue to see GFers / FBers fork over seven figures for small SFH built in the 1920s. Sure the craftmanship is 1000 times better than the McMansion built in the past twenty years but > $1,000,000 that’s insane!
just did a weekend up in the Big Bear area (LA area). For Sale signs freakin everywhere. Zip says only 450+ listings, but ain’t even close. Signs on most every street.
Was up in Crestline last weekend. Zip says 225 listings. On the drive from Highway 18 down to the lake (Lake Gregory drive) counted 15 different for sale signs (in 1 mile).
Looks like the 2nd home market’s hitting the wall, and doin it with velocity.
Went to a few open houses this weekend (I live in the Seattle area). First one was FSBO, nice neighborhood. He bought it in 2003 for $575k. Asking price; $1.2M. Give me a break, like I am going to be the sucker who funds his retirement! Next house was way out of my league at $2.4M. But I had an interesting conversation with the agent. I starting talking about how prices have become so detached from fundamental financial measurements. He was receptive to my opinion and told me a story about a buddy of his who bought an investment property in Pheonix a few years ago. He bought it for $100k. 18 months later houses in the neighborhood were selling for $200k. So the guy put it on the market. He still hasn’t sold it after marking the price all the way down to $140k. Sheesh, that’s 30% off of peak prices. Things are getting ugly in Arizona!
This is happening all over Seattle. Until this year, I really don’t think Seattle had that many million dollar homes.
I cannot count the number of homes I’ve seen in the county records that were sold ‘04 for 450K , now on the market for a million plus.
NE Seattle is full of them. Anyone who buys a million dollar home in Seattle should be looking that address up in the records first, unless they have no problem with, as you say, subsidizing someone else’s retirement- a kind deed to be sure. Just hope they’ve taken care of theur own retirement first.
Barron’s has this report on Station Casinos, the Las Vegas locals market casino chain. If any of you know about Las Vegas, then you know that STN has a relative monopoly in that space.
Shares of casino operator Station Casinos Inc. could be halved if the Las Vegas housing market, considered by some to be overheated, tumbles.
STN rode their stock price from a 9/11 low of $7/share to a high of $80/share during the housing boom. I don’t know about you but I’m thinking pets.com … maybe
Local RE radio show: You have equity in your home, right? Well you know that is dead money. You need to make that money work for you and acquire more property and we will do all the work for you. You made 10k on your property investment, right? Well what if you had 20 of those properties?” Bubble mentality still intact in Chicago.