‘It’s Not A Pretty Picture’ In Florida
The collapsing housing bubble in Florida is impossible to ignore. “It’s not a pretty picture over at the 550Q condo project planned for downtown West Palm Beach. The luxe condo with the artsy theme ‘is being put on hold until we can rethink market conditions,’ said Burt Minkoff, 550Q’s sales director. Blame weak sales and rising construction costs for the move.”
“‘We’re confident 550Q is a great project, but overconfident is not something we want to be,’ said Ted Przbyla, development director. ‘There’s a lot of inventory (in West Palm Beach). We felt it would be prudent to stop and see what projects are not going forward.’”
“It’s not just new construction that’s in the doldrums. Consider Mizner Court at Broken Sound, a condo conversion project in the heart of Boca Raton. Last October, developer Skip Stoltz bought the former Coral Harbor Apartments complex for a pricey $105 million. Plans were to quickly renovate the apartments and sell them as condos. You know what happened after that.”
“Of 450 units, only 67 have sold. Business remains slow, even though Stoltz is offering generous incentives toward closing costs or unit upgrades. So, like other developers sitting with unsold inventory, Stoltz is embracing apartments again.”
The Sun Sentinel. “With demand softening in South Florida and across the nation, builders and real estate firms are laying off workers, shuttering offices and selling to moneyed buyers. ‘Construction, mortgages, title insurance. We’re seeing cuts across the board,’ said economist Mark Zandi. ‘It’s going to be a long process.’”
“With cancellations up and orders down, builders have resorted to offering cars, cruises and other perks to stimulate sales. They’re also cutting staff. The trend follows what’s happening in Las Vegas, Phoenix and other formerly hot markets as builders trim fat to stay competitive. ‘In a slower business market, it made sense to cut back,’ said Steve Zenger, a WCI spokesman.”
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
The St. Petersburg Times. “The sneeze came first: Home sales in the Tampa Bay area dropped by a third from last year’s peak. For symptoms of the developing head cold, plunge into the exhibition hall at the Tampa Convention Center, where the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers is holding its annual trade show.”
“‘A lot of people are getting laid off. They’re cutting back the whole real estate industry,’ said Julie Durkee. Cammie Aucoin of said the new buzzword in the industry is for people to dump their adjustable-rate mortgages in favor of fixed-rate mortgages. Anything to drum up more business. ‘Everything peaked out in November and December,’ Aucoin said.”
The Naples News. “‘You sell to the market,’ said Darin MacMurray, regional VP for Lennar Corp. in Collier. ‘Home prices are decreasing and land prices will follow. I think there will be a correction on land pricing.’”
“For now, buyers are benefiting from falling land and home prices in the Golden Gate Estates. Since January, prices have dropped 10 to 15 percent in the Estates, said agent Elaine Ritchie. So, for example, a house that sold for $400,000 last year is now selling for $350,000, she said.”
“Although prices are coming down, some buyers are still nervous the market will go lower and they will have overpaid. Ritchie said she’s had four buyers back out this year at the closing table. Some sellers are angry they missed last year’s frenzy, Ritchie said. ‘Homes went too high. People can’t swing it,’ Ritchie said.”
A lot of signs Florida killed the goose that lays the golden egg:
‘Home sales
are slowing, and inventories are backing up. There are a lot questions on the cost of insurance. There are businesses moving away from Florida, which we’ve never seen before,’ said Vitner. He sees decelerating residential markets in other parts of the state happening faster than originally predicted and expects the same will happen soon in South Florida. Still, costs going down are a way for Florida to regain its competitive advantage.’
‘Right now when you combine the run-up in housing prices with higher interest rates and soaring insurance costs, Florida’s pricing a lot of people out of the market,’ he said. ‘People are saying, `I can’t afford to live here,’ and businesses are saying, ‘I can’t afford to operate here.’ We need to see some slowing.”
‘There was no mad rush of shoppers Saturday seeking school supplies and children’s clothing on the first day of a tax-free week. Far from it.’
‘Orlando-area districts all grew during the 2005-06 school year, but by much less than expected. Statewide, more than 35,000 students never arrived.’
‘Amid soaring prices for real estate, property taxes and insurance, job boosters in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast say the area no longer represents a bargain for employers. Office Depot Inc., one of only two Fortune 500 firms based in Palm Beach County, this month sounded the alarm on rising business costs. The Delray Beach-based retail giant said it’s considering moving to cheaper states in the Southeast.’
‘When W.R. Grace moved here, it was because the cost of doing business was cheaper than in New York,’ Merin said. ‘Office space was cheaper, housing was cheaper, taxes were cheaper — cheaper, cheaper, cheaper.’
‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
‘Orlando-area districts all grew during the 2005-06 school year, but by much less than expected. Statewide, more than 35,000 students never arrived.’
Office Depot Inc., one of only two Fortune 500 firms based in Palm Beach County, this month sounded the alarm on rising business costs. The Delray Beach-based retail giant said it’s considering moving to cheaper states in the Southeast.’
As long as they keep their head in the sand nothing bad can happen right? I mean people have no choice but to move to Florida don’t they?
Woohoo!!! Florida condos for everyone!!! (wait, I’ve said that before, haven’t I?) OK, *TWO* Florida condos for everyone, plus a new Benz thrown in by the developer as a “sales incentive.”
Greenlander, I was thinking the same thing until I read this:
‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’
Holy S@%T!! 1000 people a day!? I better get my butt down to FL on the next flight and buy as many properties as I can!
Or, I could count up the Floridians leaving every day (800) and dying every day (800) and realize that each day I wait to buy there will be 600 extra places on the market. Like you said, FL condos for everyone.
And a bag of coke. I forgot. It’s still illegal.
PLEASE STOP POSTING LIES BEN - I ONLY BELIEVE THE TRUTH!!!:
“South Florida,” he said, ”is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past” according to a realtor who predicted that a land shortage will support higher prices indefinitely.”
- New York Times, Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms, 3/25/05
You can never hear that enough…I still love it!!
This might be the best of the classics. It will be the quote most used to warn people in 2029 when we are nearing the crest of the next bubble.
And it will finally be different that time….
‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida.’
How does he know this ? Is there a requirement you register once you enter Florida ? How many are moving out at the same time ?
Lots of retirees from the NE are moving from Florida to The Carolinas, Kentucky, Tennessee, etc. Of course, none of these people are considered in the “1000 people” that allegedly move in every day.
Really , I think after potential buyers witnessed Katrina on T.V. ,with all the people in the bumper to bumper traffic trying to get out ,at this point maybe buyers have second thoughts about Florida as a retirement place .
I have been in Florida all my life, F%*k this 1000 a day bulls#@t. Its a pipe dream (crack pipe) come up with something new !
Well it must be true, he’s a consultant. the same consultants that made the mess in the first place. maybe he can find a real job now that all the boomer are leaving to come to Florida.
100 bucks we are losing more than we are gaining at this point due to hurricanes, construction and related real estate layoffs.
“A thousand people a day are moving to Florida..”
I have been living in Central Florida for the last 17 years and every time I hear that I laugh.
We have had in in migration of population but a good 70% has been from Latin America and the Caribbean….lots of people are employed in service sector jobs and many are undocumented illegals. Used to be that the fruit pickers would return to Mexico after the oranges were off the tree but around 1999-2000 they started staying year-round.
The median household income in Central Florida is around 43K. A decent home is now starts around $ 275K….if you are lucky. Something decent in a gated community near good schools starts around $ 350K.
Five years ago the median income was the same as now and a decent home started at around 125K. Then it was balanced and the quality of life was better as a result…..Quality of life has rapidly deteriorated down here over the last five years…..Meth is a huge problem and the homeless population has tripled…Traffic is horrible everywhere in Central Florida..
MANY people that I have known for years have cashed-out within the last two years and left the state. These were decent professional people with good kids and contributors to the community. They got fed up with it, cashed out, took the money and ran…
The exodus of professional, “bill-payer” types of people is being replaced by foreign and absentee speculators who have bought the now vacant homes and are holding out to rent…..This is everywhere. You are starting to see a more “diverse” population in some of the more established parts of town due to rentals of longstanding previously owner-occupied homes.
Case in point: My sister sold a home at Rock Springs Ridge north of Apopka last summer at the top and saw a good $ 225,000 gain…they purchased for $ 200,000 in ‘02 and sold for $ 425,000 on ‘05…moved to Binghamton NY and got new jobs and instant 40% cash equity on a new home with their windfall…..Anyhow, I went by her old neighboorhood and the place is much less appealing….older low-rider cars are creeping up on lawns and little tuner thug cars are squealing about the streets. This would NEVER have happened just two years ago……Renters have started to move in on this golf course community.
The whole demographic of Florida has changed so much in the last ten years I don’t know what to think about where it will end up.
One thing is for sure; this ain’t your granddaddy’s Florida anymore.
Les, I have to say you hit the nail on the head. its not the Florida I remember,
Case in point: My sister sold a home at Rock Springs Ridge north of Apopka last summer at the top and saw a good $ 225,000 gain…they purchased for $ 200,000 in ‘02 and sold for $ 425,000 on ‘05…
Nice your sister cashed in.
Think of the the idiot who bought her place…
When prices revert back to 1999 levels, this dude will be more than a quarter million underwater.
No recovery in a lifetime for this disasterous purchase decision.
Nice your sister cashed in.
Think of the the idiot who bought her place…
When prices revert back to 1999 levels, this dude will be more than a quarter million underwater.
No recovery in a lifetime for this disasterous purchase decision.
Actually, it’s funny you mention this.
The openly gay ( male ) couple who bought the place bought the place in hopes of a quick flip…she sold the home after only 8 days on the market…
Anyhow, the couple that bought the house defaulted on the loan last Sept 05…they bought the place in May 05…place went to a pretty quick foreclosure…I’ll bet they didn’t make more than one or two payments….One of them was a cab driver and the other a Respiratory Therapist at a local hospital.
Its a beautiful corner lot home on two parcels in the back of the development ( on Sand Wedge Dr. )….when I drove by last week the place was vacant and up for sale with a local Realtor(tm).
There are thousands of stories like this one down here in Central Florida and they are becoming more and more frequent…
Still, I have my eyes out for that 20′-22′ Center Console fishin’ boat that will be on some distressed flippers lawn soon…..I can’t wait to sweep in on some “rich” idiots seldom used toy and get it for 50 cents on the dollar….I look to get myself that boat I have always wanted in ~February 2007……and by gawd….I DESERVE IT
“Since January, prices have dropped 10 to 15 percent in the Estates, said agent Elaine Ritchie. So, for example, a house that sold for $400,000 last year is now selling for $350,000, she said.”
Why not wait for 180,000 selling price ?
because 180k is still too much
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
And who are the Boomers selling their Northeastern homes to so they can buy in Florida?
You mean the ones who can’t sell because the population is decreasing in the northeast? I think more baby boomers are now moving to NC, SC, TN, AL, where they get more bang for their buck and are not inundated with FL traffic and crime or the hurricane/insurance costs.
I’m a boomer and my husband & I will be NOT looking at Florida when we retire — too much crime, hurricane problems, way high insurance, & the usual humidity. The only real estate we own in Fla, and ever will own in Fla, is a Disney timeshare….lol !!! We’ll be buying in Arizona most likely in the next 8 years, after the prices recede, of course !
Refrigerator” Perry.
“Yeah, it’s me. How you doing?” the former Chicago Bear said, offering an oversized palm and autographed photo
_______________________________________________________
OH nevermind if the “Fridge” is pi,ping RE it is time to buy. LOL
Phoenix Title Services cheerfully dispensed Amstel Light from beer kegs at 10:30 a.m., when many still munched breakfast muffins.
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Don’t forget the beer to drown your sorrows in. At least serve a high quailty beer. I could name 20 beers better than this crap!
There are at least 200 better beers in Belgium alone.. much less 20!!
That’s the problem! Serve wine, and pretend that the buyers have some class…
Stoke their egos while you empty their pockets; it’s easier to hustle that way…
Amstel light is dutch
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
They’ll probably rent from someone who is deeply cashflow negative.
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
Yes, Yes, Yes and they will all buy the precious houses from me and the precious will give me 6%. The boomers are so precious to MEEEEEEE!!!! God I can see these scum realtors agents just drooling like a little troll over the prospect of someone going into debt servitude to purchase a house. They have to buy they are moving here and they must buy a house. I live in California and the only person that can buy a house right now is someone that can sell a house.
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
Yes, Yes, Yes an the they will buy the precious houses from me and the precious will pay me 6%. The boomers are precious to MEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!.
These realtors are just a bunch of greedy little trolls. People have to buy because they are moving here and they must buy then right. The birth rate in this Country is negative population growth that means all the people needed to contine this housing Ponzi scheme need to come from other countries. Most seem to come from Mexico. Have you been to Mexico they will stack 10 people on their heads in one house in order to live. I live in California and the only people that are buying a home is if they can sell a home.
Boomers are 79 million, Gen Xers are 54 million, there is not enough Gen Xers to buy Boomers homes. Plus most Xers already own a home. So now it is the Y generation, but don’t forget a lot of them are immigrants that I just spoke of. So now what???? Oh that’s right inventory will begin to rise to unprecedented levels, which is just what is happening now. Thats because there are not enough buyers you freak of nature realtors. Would it hurt just one of you to go a little farther in your math classes. Morons, we have Morons selling everyone houses, complete freakin Morons.
Time for the builders to start offering “Roll Back the Calender Savings” promotions.
If the Florida developers can’t make it in Florida, they can also try other markets:
Las Vegas Business Journal
Miami developer to build high-rise
By TONY ILLIA
BUSINESS PRESS
Boulevard Properties, a Miami development firm, recently unveiled plans for a new 350-foot-tall condominium tower in downtown Las Vegas. The project, Evolution Lofts, will be located on a half-acre lot at the northwest corner of Charleston Boulevard and Third Street.
“We believe in the mayor and his vision for downtown,” said Len Edelman, a principal of Boulevard Properties. “Evolution Lofts is located in the downtown Arts District, which is quickly becoming the place to live, work and play.”
Designed by JMA, the 29-story high-rise will consist of 159 residences with 19 different floor plans. Home range from 806 square feet to 2,100 square feet in size, priced from the mid-$400s up to $1.4 million with median sale price of $600 per square foot.
What jobs are in Las Vegas other than relatively low paying tourism service jobs? I don’t know of any Fortune 500 companies with corp HQs there. I have never understood what attracts people to live in Las Vegas. It’s a nice place to visit and threw some money away in the casinos but who wants to stay longer than three to four days?
Well how about prostitute or shark lender ?
Clown or acrobat at the Cirque du Soleil ?
It’s a real great place to launder your stock options or burn a little a bit of money stashed away and not declared. More entertainment than in a indian reservation.
The U.S. Census is the source of the information. Florida’s population was 15.98 MM in 2000, and 17.79 MM in 2005. Divide out the difference by 1,825 days and it averages 990 person/day net growth.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html
‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida.’
Ok, I am so sick and tired of hearing that phrase thrown about as if it were known to everyone who lives and breathes. I want to know where that statistic comes from and how they arrived at that figure. Is it accurate? Is it current? Is it gross or net?
How many of them buy homes? What counties? Someone please tell me the origin of this statement or all these people that bring it up to defend why priced won’t go down, down here better shut up about it! Until I see some hard stats I do not believe it.
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
has been for 10 yrs ,but may be changing
tn,nc and others will be getting the retiree action
Not that I don’t believe you, flat, but where did that stat come from? I’m thinking that perhaps you know since you mentioned that it has been for 10 years. Where can I see it?
How the state gov’t estimates the # of people moving to FL is simple, they survey the moving companies and get an idea of how many moves from out of state they are doing, and how many are moving out. The number is a net number, and it’s an educated guess at best.
Cool, good to know. So…where is that information posted where every real estate agent in Florida can see it and I can’t?
I think someone posted previously that the number comes from drivers license records.
More like a Scientific Wild Ass Guess (SWAG)
Florida and educated should not be used in the same sentence!
RE employment in 2005 = 9.8% of total
a 20% cut = 2% less employment = recession
not fun for anyone
said Darin MacMurray, regional VP for Lennar Corp. in Collier. ‘Home prices are decreasing and land prices will follow. I think there will be a correction on land pricing.’”
Nope. In a delcining markert, land always gets crushed first and gets crushed the hardest. This dope is just another in a long list of people who have either a) never been through a declining market, or b) doesn’t remember the last one. Either way, his company is hosed and he’ll be looking for employment soon.
Makes sense, since land is several months away from being housing, anticipated declines in housing value should already be priced in. And that’s WITHOUT the effect of the current massive oversupply of housing. In a year of two nobody will be building homes in southern florida, there’s simply no need what with all the “dark towers.”
The Naples News. “‘You sell to the market,’ said Darin MacMurray, regional VP for Lennar Corp. in Collier. ‘Home prices are decreasing and land prices will follow. I think there will be a correction on land pricing.’
That’s what I’m talking about. Land prices falling, Lumber down 30% already, labor will get cheaper as it gets more competitive for work. Builder’s are probaly already squeezing suppliers for better prices. Suppliers of building materials need to work with builders to get costs down so the machine can keep pumping out inventory. If they stop building houses, everyone involved will suffer.
This in from the Space Coast:
In an attempt to keep people like me from gaining easy access to tax information, Brevardmls.com has stopped including tax ID numbers from the listings. I use to use the tax IDs to search how much the current owner paid for it and when.
also, the open houses on the Space Coast have started to lessen the amount of ads with the homes price on it. I guess sticker shock is working.
An alarming number of fliers in the front yards of the houses for sale are also not listing “asking prices.”
I feel we are in a sad state of dispare. 601 sales in May to go to (I don’t even know how many)realtors. That is probably about 20-30% of the realtors that made a sale. I did sales and if you don’t make money it is time to get another job, before they fire you.
I also feel they are inflating those numbers also. Talked to a few friends in realty and they said that no one is coming and buying. One guy is selling his small real estate business, because he hasn’t had any sales in a few months.
If you can’t sell houses then sell Real Estate.
My Buddy has made some sales. His strategy as he puts it is to “NEVER answer their questions on the phone, get them to come in.” He also says, “If you answer questions, you will never see them.”
Oops meant, sell your Real Estate business.
My next door neighbor is having an ‘Open House’ today - after 4 hours there has only been one truck drive slowly by it. There are a total of 4 houses for sale and they are all within 8 houses of mine!
Whichever seller ‘Blinks’ first….will doom the others.
Our nextdoor neighbor recently placed a “FOR SALE” sign in his front yard (i.e. 3 months ago with nobody showing up for OPEN HOUSE), which is next to his neighbor which is next to his neighbor which is next to her neighbor.
OUR neighbor is UNIQUE and SPECIAAAAAAAL, he recently asked me to move my street parked auto away from his yard to enhance the “ROAD SIDE APPEAL” of his RE. Needless to say my car is still parked in the same location it has been since the RE prices ran UP UP UP! Now that RE is DOWN DOWN DOWN my auto is the source of all his problems.
Well just make him an offer for the service. Depends on how far you have to walk and how often, of course. But, say, $100/day would sound fair. Or perhaps a flat fee of 2% of the sales price. If you are increasing the value of his property, then you should receive a share.
What an opportunity! Offer to ’stage the neighborhood’ - for a price - by parking a few luxury cars - Maseratis, Jags, whatever - in his driveway and on the the street. Hey, if they’re doing *inside* the homes for sale, it’s gotta be just a matter of time before they start doing it *outside*.
The Naples News. “‘You sell to the market,’ said Darin MacMurray, regional VP for Lennar Corp. in Collier. ‘Home prices are decreasing and land prices will follow. I think there will be a correction on land pricing.’”
Builders were too clever by half this time as they bought land purchase options instead of land itself. Unfortunately, a large percentage drop in land prices can quickly drop the value of a purchase option to zero.
“The sneeze came first: Home sales in the Tampa Bay area dropped by a third from last year’s peak. For symptoms of the developing head cold, plunge into the exhibition hall at the Tampa Convention Center, where the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers is holding its annual trade show.”
Sneeze? Cold? Wrong analogy.
First came the pneumonia symptoms. Next came the diagnosis confirming the cause was SARS.
Turns out its actually mutated bird flu!
test
“I think someone posted previously that the number comes from drivers license records.” (1,000 moving to FL a day)
Ok, I’m getting very close to officially declaring that stat to be a bogus stat. Still can’t find it posted anywhere, and I know the folks on this board are some of the most resourceful folks on the planet. A great challenge for anyone interested?!
I think that number is them taking the census numbers and establishing future estimates based on a constant growth rate.
from:
http://www.stateofflorida.com/Portal/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=95
Population Rank - 4th in U.S. behind California, Texas & New York
Florida population estimates:
Florida’s Population (2003) - 17,019,068
Florida’s Population (2002) - 16,713,149
Florida’s Population (2001) - 16,396,515
Florida’s Population (2000) - 15,982,378
Population (1990) - 12,937,926
Population (1980) - 9,746,961
Population Growth Rate (1990-2000) - 23.5%
so assuming constant 23.5% growth from 2000 to 2010, 15.9 million will go to 19.6 mil by 2010, or 3.7 mil in 10 years, which works out to be about 1000 people a day.
of course…that whole past performance doesn’t mean anything bout the future blah blah speal is needed here…but the number isn’t completely pulled out of their asses.
Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? ”
Have to agree that number dosn’t seem to hold much water these day…All the metrics that matter has turned in the past 6 months.
YOY would only giove you an inkling but ..right now I have to think with prices, Hurricanes, and especially Insurance doubling ,and tripling! No way the penny pinchin’ seniors are headin’ to Fl. Maybe ~ Al, Ms, Carolinas’ ….Have to say again..This is just barely untwisting….snap,sproing#@*
Thanks, joec, NOW I see it, and understand where they are getting the figures from. Do I believe it will continue? No way. I always wanted to move to Florida and did a few years ago. I love it here. But, I may move to NC in a few years. You can guess why.
The above calculation doesn’t include births/deaths. I did this calculation a few months ago, and basically it comes out to 800 people a day, 2/3 of them from other parts of the US, 1/3 from international locations (or is it the other way around, i forgot). It will be interesting to follow this in the next few years as Floridians start leaving for Georgia, TN, SC and NC and people who wanted to move here see the cost of leaving and opt for more affordable locations.
Until they drive the costs up in those areas. Oklahoma and TX are seeing booms. Idaho is seeing booms. NC, SC, Ga, Al, Ms, and La are seeing booms. Kentucky is seeing booms. The Midwest is starting to look attractive again i.e. Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana. If you look at it, there are a ton of affordable places to live and you can bet that people will be moving there!
“Anthony Trella, a consultant to home builders nationwide, said the state will continue to attract Baby Boomers and other new residents. ‘I don’t see demand going away,’ Trella said. ‘A thousand people a day are moving to Florida. Where are they all going to live? They can’t keep living with their brother-in-law.’”
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Anyone thought to check with the mortuaries? Can the new arrivals keep pace with the newly departed? Six Feet Under.
Just had a Realtor email me saying the same thing about the boomers moving here in full force and prices will go “no lower”. I asked him why sales in Bradenton are down 52% in June with all this “in-migration”……..no response.
Well they have to convince people that the market is always going up to get buyers to buy NOW or they starve. But that might be shifting into unrealistic sellers to drop their price and then telling people they better buy now because prices will go no lower and in August they will take off for good.
All they do is try and alter the psychology of the market so that NOW is always the best time to buy.
It’s like that Big Screen at Best Buy. You see it on sale, think you are getting a deal, then you finally are convinced to buy. A few weeks later you see it go a few hundred dollars cheaper and you kick yourself in the Arse! Why? Because NOW is the best time to buy, not when you bought it 2 weeks ago. Of course, then was the best time to buy too!. Best Buy didn’t care since they needed to transactions to make money. Same thing with RE. The only thing is, you will be paying for your mistake with RE a whole lot longer! Possibly even years.
Yes, my understanding is that there are few places in Florida that have the delightful title of “Gods Waiting Room”.
Sellers are angry that they missed last year’s market? That reminds me when I was selling my house (Q3 2005), a neighbor 2-3 houses down asked me questions and mentioned plans to sell her house 6-9 months later. I hinted that she do it now, but she wasn’t ready. She has had it listed for awhile now, and it has yet to sell.
News from Tampa Florida:
Yes people are moving to FL, but they are not finding anywhere to live. I rent a nice 2br, mother-in-law style place in a residential area for $500.00. All of a sudden it is like GOLD. The young couple across the street had his parents move here from N.Y. about 5 mos ago, the garage is FULL of their furniture-they cannot find an affordable place. Another guy my landlord knows, here from N.J. and I am sure pays more than I do for less, I am sure he is also putting on the pressure. My landlord was whining from pressure of increased insurance and taxes and all these people saying they would pay more for my apartment sight unseen. So I had to raise the rent on myself to $600.00 a month. He was so happy. He told another neighbor, who told me that he wanted to raise it to $700.00 a month, but was worried about losing a good renter. So hopefully I will get another year at $600.00 a month. I am saving money like mad, hopefully I can hang on here long enough till the insanity is over.
Jan, where is this? I’ll pay more for your place in Tampa
Kidding… I’m currently renting in South Tampa. $500 is a good deal if in a nice area.
Tampa Florida anectdotal.
Guy I work with makes less than $20.00 an hour his wife is a realtor who took a few years off(during the boom) to stay home with the baby, and just jumped back into the real estate game this year. Fall of 2005 they bought a $300,000 house with a liars loan-no doc., I guess cause she hadn’t been working and they guesstimated what she would be making based on bubble history. Had to put the house totally in his name cause her credit wasn’t so great.
He is signing up for all the overtime he can get and complaining that when she looks at his check with 14 hours of O.T. she says, “Is that all”. He blames the buyers cause they don’t have enough money to buy the homes. “My wife works her B*tt off and the deals fall through cause of financing”. “She has $800,000 in inventory listed”. They definitely know the math to figure 20% on that. I try to keep my mouth shut at work because I have been the resident fool for not buying, but as they were discussing this poor guys plight in the lounge I couldn’t help but add, “He needs to tell his wife to get a JOB!!! And ASAP!!
Sorry I meant to say, “They definitely know the math to figure 6% on that”. I too am doing the overtime thing this weekend.
It’s actually 3% unless they represent both sides in the transaction. Also, unless she is the broker, she has to give up part of that, not sure how much, and that is IF they are getting 3% of the commission.
I am trying to get someone approved for a home they have a contract on. This person is moving to the area but didn’t think of getting a job first before they signed the contract. The credit is marginal at best and doesn’t qualify for no doc financing. Now this person is upset that I can’t find financing for them. Logic doesn’t work with this person, I was asked why I had such a “negative attitude” towards their situation. This person was already working with another LO before they got passed on to me. I looked at how the other LO structured the deal and to say it was ridiculous is an understatement (as a second home, right this person would have to prove that they could handle a rent payment + mortgage payment for a house 1000+ miles away on $40k income, oh yeah that will work). Oh, by the way, this person is quitting their current job before they move. As much blame as mortgage LO’s and realtors deservedly get, don’t forget to lay some of the blame at the borrowers/buyers as well.
So, any loan officers worth their salt won’t give the loan to this borrower . There are all kinds of jerks out there that want money and its up to the Lenders to turn them down .
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Have lenders really tightened up standards and practices since 1 year ago??? like “stated” vs. “verified” income requirements??? or are the same games stll being played???
are the same games stll being played???
The “games” are worse than ever, because you’ve got bazillons of former high roller real estate parasites who are currently starving to death.
Nix a deal because of value problems as an appraiser right now-and you’ll be total black-listed toast.
A thousand a day in. A thousand a day out. And a thousand a day move “6 feet under”. LOL - wait until Wilma 2, Katrina 2, etc take another whack there.
Tom, there WAS a boom here in the Carolinas — Charleston at least. That is rapidly, rapidly deflating. I rent (thank God) in a vinyl village called Belle Hall in Mount Pleasant. When we moved here in October/05, there were basically no homes with signs in front for sale - they hit the market, they disappeared. Shortly thereafter, they began appearing, and appearing. Now there are a ridiculous number of homes here that have been sitting, and sitting, with for sale signs and overinflated prices. A neighbor who moved to Jax on a job relocation has been unable to unload his 5Br home for 3 mos at $389K and he lowered to 369. Still nothing - I was outside almost all day today, and one driver stopped to look at his house. They had to move and are now carrying 2 mortgages. Another neighbor was ready to close escrow on a new house but got absolutely no bites on her current house and pulled out at the last second and took her current home off the market. Went surfing at Folly Beach this morning. Seems like 1 in 5 homes is for sale, and just sitting, and sitting at ridiculous prices. Remember the show “Flip this House?” That conniving cracker made everyone think Charleston was shangri-la for specuvestors. Well, now they’re getting reamed. According to Zillow, our landlord paid 297K for our home in Sept of 05. Previous sale was in 2002 for 181k. My landlord’s a nice guy and all, but what the hell was he thinking?? I feel somewhat sorry for my neighbors in Jax. They’re getting screwed by the specuvesters because they can’t sell their home, but at the same time, the specuvesters made them think they’re POS vinyl castle was somehow worth over a quarter of a million dollars.
re: Boca Raton’s Mizner Court
What profit is the “developer” looking for? The unit cost is probably close to $240K/unit. Check out his site.
A $20 million dollar profit (and that’s the mininum) is NOT enough for him.
Number’s don’t lie, at least in this case.
Here are the latest numbers from Miami. Down another $2,000 in 1 week. Median home down $ 25,000 in 6 months and $38,000 since last August. Inventory up 116% in 9 months.
Trend 07/21/2006 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month
Median Price $387,000 -0.8% -2.8% -3.0% -5.6%
Inventory 36,744 +4.0% +17.3% +60.1% +116.4%