Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For July 25, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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This may be a re-post, but did anyone read this propoganda from the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-market23jul23,0,2061837.story
so how much are they buying NOW ?
The Orange County Register has June figures showing year-over-year declines in several zip codes. http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/atoz/article_1219659.php
Nonetheless, the OC Register is strangely silent about this …
Thanks for posting; I saw that on Sunday and my first thought was that the Times is trying to cover all bases after running the story about San Diego’s price losses, and Leslie Appleton Young’s disclaimer about the “soft landing”. But this article almost sounds laughable in the face of what most analysts are saying publicly now. To say there will only be 7% loss for most homeowners - I guess they’re talking about people who bought pre-2000.
economists say homeowners will lose no more than 7% of their homes’ value down the line,” Karevoll said. So much for a real estate crash.
Whew! Boy am I relieved. And here I was thinking that prices might drop 20-30% in a good scenario.
“down the line” may be as long as 15 years! LOL
dang, my zip has already lost 7% since june 05
Is that 7% per year for 5-7 years? Ask the man behind the curtain. Help me now sports fans.
“As Southern California’s real estate boom fades and a more normal market returns”
How you can call
ubiquitous over-leveraged borrowers + over-value houses + fraudulent mortgage application = normal market
It’s not “normal” to be suckered into losing your life savings buying a home in a collapsing market. To say the market is “returning to normal” is a deliberate and calculated effort to deceive–once prices have collapsed the market will be normal, but how many lives will be ruined in the crash? The NAR and CAR should be added as defendants in any lawsuit seeking recovery of damages for declining values to recognize their role in this scheme.
Bulwark -
I agree with you. Making people believe that houses were a scarce commodity was a sham put forth by the NAR, and this is why people were willing to pay ridiculous prices. Appraisal fraud may have played a part, but I believe there have been posts on this blog in the past about buyers freaking out when an appraisal didn’t come in high enough. This could only happen in a mania where people were led to believe that they were losing out on a chance to buy a scarce commodity that would only rise in value. In a rational market a buyer would want to know the true value and negotiate from there.
Then there are the mtg. brokers with thier “liar” loans. What a mess.
*their
Rah, rah, Ralph!
Exactly one year ago yesterday, I started by tracking inventory and median asking prices of condos on realtor.com for Virginia Beach and colonial Williamsburg. Below is my first YoY data, with high and low inventory and price numbers indicated:
Va. Beach inventory/median $
7/24/05 192 $300k
8/5/05 185 (L) $300k
8/20/05 186 $310K (H)
7/9/06 664 (H) $295k (L)
7/24/06 629 $295k (L)
Williamsburg inventory/median $
7/24/05 29 (L) $300k
10/28/05 60 $327.5k (H)
7/9/06 122 $274k (L)
7/24/06 137 (H) $275k
I subsequently started tracking sfh’s and other data, but don’t have YoY data for that yet, but it only reinforces the above — the bubble peaked after last summer and SE VA real estate is now declining in price.
Is that declining inventory???
The last number for Va. Beach is a decline from a couple of weeks ago. Basically inventory has stabilized in the last 30 days.
We’ll see what happens once August starts in earnest and people realize their houses are not going to sell during this summer selling season.
Nice work.
# of transactions- how long does it take for sellers to captitulate- any 90’s numbers ?
tia
yo BEN- a nice visual feature you could have would by a price clock- you could set it to may 05 right now. My hood (22151) is ticking back to march 05
be a price clock”
I second this motion. Countdown to history, the first ever YOY NATIONAL housing price decline. The majority of risky “products” are gunna reset in the next three years and our YOY national median price rose only 0.9% this month(just saw that number on CNBC), the lowest increase since the mid 90s - i.e. mid cycle of the last bust. Put it together with the circumstances that allowed for this unprecedented asset bubble and I don’t see how the national median home price could not decline. A ticker would be great! Especially, since the historic lack of a YOY national home price decline is the last vestige of exuberance for NAR tools. Cheers.
I saw a new listing this morning N. VA (FQ6133759) for 530K, purchased last August for 525K. Using a full service broker, so likely 6% or 32K off the top for commission.
Or the buyer, now seller, is an agent wich lowers the commission, if any.
“The Mendezes jumped at the chance to grab the four-bedroom “major fixer,” Gladys said, for $29,000 less than the asking price of $749,000. The steep appreciation of their first home allowed them to make a hefty down payment and have money left over for renovations.”
Only 720K for a major fixer, OK what a great deal. Of course prices will go up… things are still so resonable.
eagle rock is a ghetto
I have a friend who just bought a million$ fixer….Escrow has yet to close. It’s in LA…Longridge Estates area(nice area) but a million $ fixer???NOW???? Its 2 bdrm,1800sq ft, 10,000sq ft lot.South of the Blvd….Says she’s going to flip it.(she’s never flipped anything)It was a single owner, old lady home…so you know it needs to be updated….I tried to talk to her…but she didn’t want to hear it…OH WELL!
I just saw this am that Brian Williams is doing a piece on the housing bubble tonight on NBC news. It will be interesting to see how he covers it.
Be sure to send emails to NBC commenting on Brian’s report: viewerservices@msnbc.com
I was watching the history channel yesterday about a boat that sank back around 1928.What was interesting in the piece was that Fl RE started to crash 3yrs before the rest of the country going into the Great Depression.
Ron - What’s REALLY intersting about the ’20’s is that they had a their real estate bubble first, which popped, of course, and then they had their stock bubble, which everyone knows ended in 1929. So I guess you could say the 1920’s is totally opposite of now.
Here is a link to the University of Virginia that has a really cool on-line book about the history of the first half of the 20th Century. You can read all about bubbles and troubles before World War II. As if any of this is “new…..”
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~hyper/Allen/Contents.html
So it IS different this time!
So let me get this straight….
Existing home sales down with Lereah saying he hopes we’re at the bottom, Consumer confidence is up (whatever that means these days), so the markets rise assummably because they think inflation is now in check and interest rate hikes will stop. But if the engine that is our economy is dropping and the money machine is no more, what Bizarro world negative universe fantasy is it that makes people think things will get better?!?
America is already up to there neck in debt. Apply for more? “Yes sir, are you applying for the ‘up to your nasal passages’ credit card or the ‘up to your eyeballs’ credit card? We have both.
Mass June Foreclosure and Sales #s
7,483 Homes and Condos sold
1,452 Homes entered the foreclosure process
That’s 1 home entering foreclosure for every 5 homes that are sold.
That’s an improvement from May when it was 1 to 4.
FYI.. the courts are very much behind with the Petitions to Foreclose..45 - 60 days behind
ForeclosureS.com: Massachusetts Defaults Reach Epidemic Level
SACRAMENTO, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–June 26, 2006–ForeclosureS.com, a California-based real estate investment advisory firm and publisher of foreclosure property information, reported today that foreclosure activity in Massachusetts was reaching an epidemic level and clogging the court system.
“Our Massachusetts research team spent four hours on June 8 with clerks and judges in the District, Superior, and Land Courts and learned that the courts have a 30-45 delay in even issuing docket numbers for foreclosures across the state,” said ForeclosureS.com president Alexis McGee.
from bostonbubble.com on June 26th
There was a separate section on rentals in the AZ Republic last Sunday. What amazed me was that in the house for rent section, there were several houses listed with 5K deposit and so much a month. What kind of person who is looking to rent a house has 5K to put down on a house? I sure would not.
You’ll see more and more need-based rental charges, but they won;=’t last it’s the disparity between rental rates and sales prices that defines the housing bubble.
As long as they’re paying a market rate of interest on the deposit, I have no qualms with a 5K deposit, presuming I actually want to rent the place and trust the landlord enough to presume they’re not going to try and abscond with it.
Funny thing is, most new **buyers** don’t have $5,000 to put down. So, I guess this means renters are “wealthier”?
That is what I thought. If new buyers can not come up with any money down, how many renters have that much? I would be worried that I would never see the money again.
I know several folks with substantial cash who rent (now) in the Phoenix area. I know zero who would deposit 5 grand with some f’d borrower with every reason to steal it if he is truly f’d. I think that one month’s rent is a reasonable security deposit, but I would still research the owner and see how leveraged he is before I handed over even a thousand dollars.
Bingo. I tell em up front. $1K maximum. If they don’t like it, tough. I go on to the next one.
The Canary in the coal mine just keeled over….UPS reports negative, highest SFR inventory in 9 years and the middle east is about to erupt…What a merry start to our day….
The sky is falling…the sky is falling…LOL
Hey jdog, you hanging in with Au?
Hey scDave, just came back from a week in Bishop. I wish Bishop would cede from the State of California, then I’d move there.
Fred - Long & strong with gold. Wish I’d doubled down at $550 last month….
My dealer was “out” for 3 days in a row. I like cash and carry. Oh well, I’m patient. I picked up some yesterday and have am ready to pull the trigger on more below $600.
Whoa!
“When Buying Gold Seems Suspicious”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=10836
Fred;…Did you get on the back side for some Golden’s ???
No, but did hike up Onion outside Independence. I’m going back in September and will hike to Cottonwood lakes for the coveted Golden. Last time I was there it wasn’t legal, many years ago. I have to get in better shape, although I did pretty well for a 4 mile 9000′ to 11000′ day hike.
I think this one is funny:
http://dallas.craigslist.org/apa/186027241.html
Godd one Tx;…
Removed as usual.
I wrote to Gary Watts and he replied! I expected my one-line email to be ignored, but it wasn’t….
________________________________________
From: Donna [mailto:donna@impactre.com]
Sent: Monday, July 24, 2006 1:50 PM
To: CG
Subject: FW: Hey Gary
—–Original Message—–
From: Gary Watts [mailto:gary@impactre.com]
Sent: Monday, July 24, 2006 12:46 PM
To: ‘Donna’
Subject: RE: Hey Gary
You can read my latest update in the Saturday, OC Register. Year to date, we are at 11.5% for homes and 10.8% for condos and the last 6 months have not been the greatest. If rates continue to fall and the buyers get off the fence, we will hold at the above numbers or go even higher.
________________________________________
From: Donna [mailto:donna@impactre.com]
Sent: Monday, July 24, 2006 11:26 AM
To: gary@impactre.com
Subject: FW: Hey Gary
—–Original Message—–
From: CG
Sent: Saturday, July 22, 2006 11:01 PM
To: info@impactre.com
Subject: Hey Gary
Is 15% still in the bag this year?
greenlander,
Good for you, and thanks for posting that. Let’s check in with Gary in Nov/Dec to see if he’s changed his tune.
LIES!! Per the OC register prices are up 6% YOY!
Quick comments this beautiful day:
India raised there rates today
Australia dollar is rising on the projected rate increase
SEC’s Cox Says Hedge Fund Regulation Is `Inadequate’
Brazil’s real fell on concern rising oil prices may prompt central banks to increase interest rates, reducing dollar inflows into developing countries.
Dollar Falls Against Euro; China Says Should Diversify Reserves
“China’s foreign reserves this year overtook those of Japan as the world’s largest, increasing last month by 32 percent from a year earlier. A slide in the dollar would increase “the risks of foreign-exchange losses in our currency reserves,” China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site today.
“The market has interpreted this to mean that China will diversify out of the dollar and that’s pushed the dollar down,” said Adrian Foster, director of foreign-exchange sales at Dresdner Kleinwort in Singapore. “China has a lot of dollar holdings and may be looking elsewhere to invest.”
And these are just from Bloomberg. I still believe there will be a 0.50% Fed Fund increase in August.
Forgot this:
from Bloomberg
Regulators led by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York demanded last September that Wall Street firms improve their handling of credit derivatives after discovering 150,000 unconfirmed or unsigned trades on default swaps. The banks said last week they are still working through the backlog.
“One of the big questions in the markets is whether credit derivatives are going to ultimately live up to their billing in terms of providing market efficiency, or simply are providing excess liquidity to the debt markets,” said Hamilton at Moody’s.
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/7810
A fairly good article from Yahoo on Gold by
Robert Kiyosaki
Bet on Gold, Not on Funny Money
“…Oil producers are seemingly less and less willing to accept dollars because the purchasing power of the dollar keeps falling, precisely because we continue to print more money…While there’s still a lot of oil to be extracted, it’ll be more expensive to produce, which makes $100-a-barrel oil very possible in the future. This, in turn, makes inflation more possible.
Historically, one barrel of oil has been worth about 2.2 grams of gold. Even when the dollar dropped in value, the ratio between gold and a barrel of oil remained pretty fixed. But recently, it has taken 3.4 grams of gold to buy a barrel of oil, which means either oil is expensive or gold is cheap.”
Not disagreeing with the gold thing, but be very careful, about Kiyosaki’s “insights”.
Kiyosaki is a tool. He has no idea what he’s talking about.
poor.dad
did anyone notice the homebuilders aren’t buying anymore land and some aren’t going through on their options to buy?
what happened? I thought there was a land shortage? what about zoning and the environmentalists?
Jlaw;…I did see that recently reported but quite honestly its been happening for some time….They have been dumping options like mad this entire year….I also think that any land that is banked will not be improved with infrastructure…One thought though, what if those land owners that no longer have contractural options on their dirt start to discount that dirt to the market ??? Will that then put even further pressure on the Home Builders who have the higher base price of the land closed and already in the books ???
WSJ opinion piece today on the GSEs.
“Senator Fannie Mae: The man behind Sarbanes-Oxley finds a corporate scandal he can forgive.”
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/opinion.html?mod=1_0045
it’s a subscription svc. teaser quote:
James Lockhart, new fed regulator for FnF: “If they were not GSEs, market discipline would have put them out of business.”
unfortunately it’s 90% political attack, but still good to see the GSEs addressed.
speaking of the WSJ, Salon.com had this piece today:
“How the World Works”
Andrew Leonard
Schizophrenic real estate
As of about 10:30 a.m, Pacific time, the Wall Street Journal was feeling a little ambivalent about the state of real estate. On its main page, the headline for its stock market update read “Stocks edged lower as investors weigh a barrage of earnings reports and economic data showing a resilient housing market and consumer confidence.” But just a few inches below that headline was another: “Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in June and the inventory of unsold homes reached a new record, in further signs of a slowing housing market.”
I will leave it to the semioticians to argue over whether a housing market can be simultaneously “resilient” and “slowing,” even though it’s a challenge to see how a record number of unsold homes could be a sign of strength. Maybe the mixed signals are actually the Wall Street Journal’s clever way of indicating that no one really knows where the economy or the housing market is headed. In the last two weeks we’ve learned that housing starts are down, mortgage applications are down, existing home sales are down and home builder confidence is plummeting. But the existing home sales figures didn’t drop as much as expected, offering a a straw for optimists to cling to. And the recent moderation in how fast the market is declining supports the constantly reiterated reassurances from the National Association of Realtor’s chief economist, David Lereah, that the housing market is “stabilizing” or “flattening out.”
Maybe it is. I caught some flak last week from readers who took issue with my lack of faith in Lereah’s sincerity. I certainly don’t have the evidence to disprove Lereah’s forecasts or interpretations. But in a case like this, I have to fall back on good old reporter’s cynicism. Since I started closely following the housing market about eight months ago, I’ve noticed that Lereah consistently interprets the latest housing data in a fashion that aligns with the interests of realtors. Such confidence is not the stuff of faith-building.
– Andrew Leonard
Just for the record, schizophrenia does not mean split personality. People have many misconceptions about the illness, partly because they are continually reading or hearing references such as the one in the post above and partly because people who have loved ones with it don’t usually want to talk about it, but since my son has schizophrenia I try to help people understand better. Schizophrenia is an illness where a person’s perceptions are altered leading to hallucinations and delusions. They do not have a split personality or multiple personalities, although there may be a small percentage of persons with schizophrenia who do have multiple personalities.
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/rfs/185971839.html
Is this a F’d flipper?
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/rfs/185971839.html
CFC: ARMs Pay Adjustments ‘Substantial’
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/25/2006 1:38 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10299211.html
The total increase in household expenses is expected to be about $16-$18 billion or so for 2006, given that about $800 billion of adjustable mortgages will reset. While Countrywide (CFC) calls these “substantial,” as surely they are in outright terms and for some households, it would cut GDP by less than 0.2%. When the tax deductibility of mortgage interest is taken into account, the cut is even smaller than that. Moreover, when considering the over $10 trillion that households have in direct holdings of interest-bearing assets, the added interest income that households will receive as a result of higher interest rates provides an added offset. The bigger impact that higher rates will have on households will come from the weaker income growth that follows cutbacks in new borrowings and credit expansion more generally.
“Moreover, when considering the over $10 trillion that households have in direct holdings of interest-bearing assets, the added interest income that households will receive as a result of higher interest rates provides an added offset. ”
I doubt if the households holding interest-bearing accounts are the same households that hold the ARM’s, so I don’t see how the higher interest payments will provide any offset. The families with ARM’s are the ones who have the least financial resources and the resets are going to hit them hard. We have friends in this position who are trying to refinance, but they will have to get another ARM, which will just delay the inevitable end.
I solved the housing crisis! I should be President for this. Or, at least, Vice President. If Al Gore gets to be V.P. by inventing the internet, then I deserve it for solving the housing crisis. OK, here’s the dirt: you solve the housing crisis by building and stocking billyons and billyons of prisons. No, really. Hear me out grasshoppers.
We on this blog have derived an entertainment value bordering on the sublime in watching this thing unfold. But some of you have started to worry that the impending implosion might hurt you too. Now, being the positive guy that I am, I want to be the cool water for you feverish worriers. But I knew that solving this would require serious psychic power, so I fired up my prayer, meditation, and 500 micrograms of lysergic acid diethylamide tartrate-25 in my punch. That’s REAL Kool-Aid, folks.
Anyway, I was watching the iridescent roaches crawling about on my pulsating walls, when they (the roaches, fool, not the walls) began to speak to me!
“Just go with the flow of the current political drift”, they said. “Political drift”, says I? “Sure, we all know that too many evildoers in America get away scot free,” breathed they, through their spiracles, of course. “Just git-em all and put them behind bars. Find us one politician that is publicly soft on crime. One. Besides, we all know that the best way to increase the rehabilitation rate of criminals is to spank them harder – so let’s max this process and spank-em for life.” Use the Prisons-R-Us corporate lobby to help you out, as they are powerful enough to bribe Congress to pass more criminal statutes, thus increasing the number of guilty Americans.
“But that means the Government will have to buy, and we will have to build a lot more prisons”, I moaned. “No problem”, said one, as he munched on a petrified fly dung chip. “You’ll be supporting the building industry. Besides, the US government isn’t paying for the stuff they’re buying now.”
That’s still going to involve a lot of due process, I pointed out. “Nope, wrong again”, they effused, or breathed, whatever….”People don’t become arrested unless they have done something wrong. Remember, that one of the first things that law students learn, as they begin their course sequence in legal ethics, it that it is better that 99 innocent people go to prison than one guilty person goes free.”
“So you’ll have the good half of the American people guarding the bad half. With half as many people in the labor market, employment will be tight and wages will rise. And America will be a lot safer with all the guilty in prison.” “Aha!” I said triumphantly. “It won’t work because that’ll liberate too much extra housing inventory.” They looked at me like I was a piece of fly frass, drooling at me like that. “Look, moron, just put bars on the windows of the condominiums and condotels (if they’re not on already) and jam some of the poor suckers in there. Not enough cruel and unusual punishment for forcing them to live in those crapboxes? You want more torture? Give-em a Jumbo Neg-Am Mortgage to work off, and you’ll hear real screams of pain. Remember, they’re not enemy combatants, so they got no rights.”
“Why that’s just amazing!” I ejaculated. It was at that moment that I surrendered to their sheer intellectual power, and decided to peacefully coexist with the little brain-gems inhabiting my mortgage rental.
What about the RealtorsTM and mortgage brokers, you say? Oh, yeah, I forgot about them. What to do?………..I’ve, got it! Gee, I love those flashbacks! We’ll hire them all as guards! No, really. Think of the bonds of friendship they would form with the caged evildoers, thus keeping the riots for food down. Who better to understand people who would engage in robbery, fraud and collusion for personal gain than RealtorsTM and mortgage brokers?
Well, that’s about it folks. Don’t send me money in your slavish gratitude for my brilliance in illuminating the path to freedom from RE worry. Send it to Ben, or click on his ads.
I lost all my bookmarks. Can someone give me the address to the site that has the monthly inventory levels and prices of the major cities. Thanks J. F. L.
Housing Tracker
Is this what you’re looking for?
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/
Thank You
I am not sure if this topic has been brought up before. I only found one mention of a re-list on a search I did and it didn’t answer my question. If so, please excuse my redundance. What is the deal with re-listing and is it ethical? If a house has been on the market for 90 days and reduced $100,000.00, is that disclosed to potential bidders on the re-list? I’m noticing a lot of re-lists on listings getting long in the tooth around my area (92646) and think it’s kind of shady.
I agree it is shady. I’m right near you (92649) and see it constantly. Here’s one local relist who’s about to lose their shirt. Breda Lane Link.
MLS P527062. Bought 3/30/06 for $749k, listed it 6/24/06 for $899K, apparently after sinking a lot of money into it. It just relisted yesterday for $896K, a $30K drop. Zillow gives it a $750 right now, basically what they paid. Ouch!
Another thing I love is how the realty sites are only showing homes sold 3-6 months ago. The homes selling now are absolutely below what they’ve been selling at and yet those numbers are not published. What a raquet!
Sorry if this was posted earlier (I never have enough time to go thru all the threads). http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/wolff240706.html
If you want to know how some of the loans are approved at Countrywide, go to yahoo message board under CFC symbol. It’s amazing some of the posters know how the whole process works (fraudulently). Here’s an excerpt from one poster:
When asked in today’s conference call, Angelo Mozilo stated that Countrywide Home Loans has “one underwriting standard, across the board. CLUES.” Can this really be considered a true statement, when, loan officers run their own preliminary CLUES reports, and if they get a “refer,” they change information until it gives an “accept”? Also, since underwriters are readily accessible to help process the loans (no kidding!), they often come back to the loan officer, to “correct” the necessary information and/or get letters of explanation. Underwriting (operations) at CHL has production goals to meet, and bonuses based on such goals. And Structured Loan Desk works all day long, giving exceptions where needed. In a Bianchi-region branch right now, the head underwriter underwrites loans for her own son, a loan officer (”strictly prohibited,” according to policies, but with execs’ provable knowledge)! One underwriting standard? Hmmm.
In most ( or all other?) major lending institutions, porcessing and underwriting is centralized, not branch-by-branch, like CHL. Loan officers should have a healthy fear of underwriters, not be able to walk into their offices, add or take from hard files, and treat their underwriter as a processor. This is the exception at CHL, which undoubtedly increases risk.
With managing directors’ documented knowledge of these perceived deficiencies, I am amazed at the simplistic answer given by Mozilo.
From an old Eddie Murphy skit…
Eddie: ”In The Amityville Horror, the ghost told them to get out of the house. White people stayed in there. Now, that’s a hint and a half for your ass. A ghost says ‘Get the f — - out,’ I would just tip the f — - out the door…. I woulda been in the house and said, ‘Aw, baby, this is beautiful. We got a chandelier hanging up here, kids outside playing, it’s a beautiful neighborhood, ain’t got nothing to worry about. I really love them, this is really nice.’
Then..”[Ghost voice] ‘Get out.’
Now…replaced with ‘Interest Only!’
Eddie: ”’Too bad we can’t stay, baby.”’
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/186323612.html
It’s almost an open letter the FBs attempting to rent their failed flips. Remember, kids, greed is bad!