‘More For-Sale Signs Than Drapes’ In Florida
The Miami Herald has this update from Florida. “In January last year, two of 23 residential projects planned for Fort Lauderdale’s Flagler Village area were under construction. More than a year and a half later, construction has started on only four others. At least eight projects have been put on hold, delayed or scrapped. Whether the rest get built may largely depend on how the real estate market plays out.”
“‘To do a condominium project now is really a risky venture,’ said analyst Jack McCabe. All of the uncertainty led Doug McCraw to halt plans for Brickell Point, a 205 loft-condo project. ‘I stopped the project cold turkey,’ he said. ‘Everybody has backed away until the market has settled.’”
“Developers of the Waves, a 21-story, 75-unit condo development, also put the brakes on its project earlier this year after failing to obtain construction financing. Dozens of buyers who had put down deposits totaling 20 percent of the purchase price have sued. ‘You have to have $10 million in the bank before you can borrow $4 million,’ said W. Bruce DelValle, a Kissimmee lawyer representing the Waves’ developers.”
“Metrostudy said families moved into only 291 of the 795 homes built in the 8,300-acre development during the first six months of this year. ‘Go into any new subdivision in St. Lucie County and you’ll see more for sale signs up than you’ll see drapes in the windows,’ said Jack McCabe. ‘St. Lucie County, at times, had led the nation in rising home prices; naturally, they will be subject to the greatest potential downturns.’”
“There were 958 new homes left vacant, up from the 447 a year ago. Adding in the 1,518 units under construction in St. Lucie County subdivisions, the report estimates that it would take more than 19 months for those homes to be filled at the current pace of homes being occupied, the report stated. Indian River County had 637 vacant new homes.”
“Richard Hope, president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association, attributed rising inventory levels to builders oversold spec homes to investors, novice speculators walking away from builder contracts that required extremely low down payments or reservations fees, (and) developers over built homes hoping the market would continue to show strong returns.”
“‘As far as the stats go, I hate to say it but it confirms what’s been going on awhile, the market is cooling’ said Hope.”
The St. Petersburg Trimes. “Only half as many homes were sold in Pasco County in the first six months of this year compared with the same period last year. ‘Supply has caught up with demand,’ property appraiser Mike Wells said. ‘When that happens, sellers have to become realistic, and what they’re asking for their product. The investor has moved on. I do think that builders are probably competing with investors that they sold houses to a year ago.’”
“About a third of Pasco homes are listed as nonprimary residences, Wells said. As prices soften, market watchers say investors are getting burned off.”
The Herald Tribune. “Now that the boom is largely over and listings are piling up all over Southwest Florida and the nation, the combination of smart pricing and marketing has taken on a new air of importance.”
“There is a lot of static in Southwest Florida’s real estate market right now. Just in the Sarasota MLS, for example, listings of homes and condos had soared 300 percent to 11,229 this month. Meanwhile, real estate agents are only moving 141 units per week, a decline of 40 percent from the clip a year earlier.”
“Pricing a home to sell is nothing new, but has gained credence as the market all over the nation has become weaker. ‘When everybody is $20,000 or $30,000 over price, looking for a miracle, it doesn’t work,’ said David York, (broker in) Sarasota. ‘What I advise my clients to do, if they want to be the next one to sell, they have to price it under every other comparable property.’”
does the “carpet” match the “drapes?”
The Sun Sentinel:
‘The switch from citrus to subdivisions could gain steam in western Palm Beach County as G.L. Homes gears up to develop the 5,000-acre Indian Trail Groves. Recent county projections have the number potentially ballooning to more than 12,000. ‘We own a very, very expensive piece of property and we are going nowhere very slowly,’ Portnoy said.’
‘G.L. Homes gears up to develop the 5,000-acre Indian Trail Groves’
That should add to the quality of life down there.Yet another mega-development.Spending time there as a kid it was really beautiful.Now it is just one long concrete strip.The sales brochure says beaches ,and palm trees, but the reality is walmarts,and condos, waiting in traffic for hours trying to get to the beach.
‘We own a very, very expensive piece of property and we are going nowhere very slowly,’
That’s the key here. Lots of builders paying prices for land that requires them to charge more than most Florida residents can afford. Might South Florida be like Manhattan someday? Maybe. But it will take a long time, and it will be a different state. Hurricanes and insurance may have something to say about this.
manhattan? my ass. SFL salaries are lowests amongst all metro areas, even Atlanta has a better shot ..now let’s start smoking havana…
SFL is burnt toast - lot’s of people bailing out due to the cost of living.
I have recruiters contacting me on a regular basis trying to fill technical sales and sales managerial positions ($80-100K). No takers and I won’t touch the positions either… I am getting out.
The builder’s statement is complete crap. There was a post on this blog a few months ago that showed that new home profit margins in Florida were at an all time high. There’s also a ton of undeveloped land in S. Florida.
“He was convicted of fraud and sent to jail; while out on bail pending an appeal(which was denied), he earned another fortune selling Florida lots” (Klien,2001,p.97). regarding Charles Ponzi
Gravity is a b!tch. Just when you thought that overpriced “investment” you bought of a home stops appreciating at 20%+ a year and has now begun its plummet to earth, these specuvestors gawk at the falling prices like turkeys looking up at the rain. We know what happens to the turkeys…
I wish McCabe would STFU up though. He looks like a bagholder in training to me. Trying to talk the market down to his value level, whatever that is. I guess he can’t start raping his limited partners in management fees until the fund actually starts buying something.
At least he isn’t a nauseating RE cheerleader.
mccabe is a “real estate expert” that will be advising developers (while they’re still solvent), then lenders (when they’re not) on how to dispose of all of the ill conceived projects dotting the landscape. my first boss in the real estate business told me that it was usually the second or third developer that actually made money on a high rise. sage advise thirty years ago.
exactly
McCabe does tend to exagerate, but I do respect his research.
Specuvator Nesmond: “I swear I thought they could fly”
Thanks for the laugh. WKRP’s (and possibly all of TV’s) finest moment…
The Florida Market has changed, what made this area grow was the retiree that could sell a house up north and buy a house down here cash and still have a C/D or two, Now that wont work and the long time retiree is moving to Tenn,Ga, So Carolina, & north Carolina add to that the jobs lost and the rate hikes in everything, Its not looking good for south Florida , Crime is up and fear is starting to show ,1926 previous boom (crash) occurrence should have been a sign of what would happen,
Miami-Dade (and also starting to apply to most of Broward) is a great place, as demonstrated by the many nationally recogized number 1 spots they hold:
- Highest child poverty rate in the entire U.S.
- Rudest drivers in the entire U.S. / Car accidents
- Most people struck by lightning in the U.S.
etc. Come on down and live the life!
Miami Dade is a hell hole, I left there in 2000 and have never looked back. Florida used to have a few things going for it. Yes, wages are low, but it used to be that this was offset by a low cost of living. As recently as 2000-2001, a person could buy a modest concrete block home in a modest but relatively safe neighborhood for as little as $80,000 or less in areas surrounding Tampa. So, Florida was a great place to kick back and skate and enjoy the beaches, springs, fishing and boating or whatever interested you. Outside of the major metro areas were some interesting rural and semi-rural areas where a person could chill out. Even hurricanes were no big deal, if you knew how to deal with them. But I am afraid this housing bubble has robbed Florida of much of what made it desirable. It won’t even take another hurricane to empty the state. All we need is a good widespread power outage in August or September and the poo will hit the fan big time. Because, if you live in one of these airless, moldy heat traps the developers have been building, you are majorly screwed. There are those who say Florida is nothing without air conditioning. Well, yes, the way things are being built, that is true. But the old timers knew how to build here to take advantage of the weather and prevailing breezes. They knew what sort of building materials were compatible with Florida’s climate.
All the cheap places in America have been driven up in price . Florida should of remained cheap and than the retirement/snowbird people would of kept coming . Older people are not going to pay high dollars and high taxes and high insurance costs just to be in a hurricane risk sun state .
Florida crashed hard in 1926 after a housing boom and a few bad hurricanes . Florida crashed even before the stock market crashed in 1929 .
You are correct that Florida led the way towards the 1929 stock market crash, but there were more factors involved. The person who noted that 1500 people per day were moving into Florida forgot to mention the number of people moving out of Florida on a daily basis. Therefore, the 1500 new Floridians moving in would not replace the numbers moving out. In rewality it’s just more marketing BS!
You’ve hit on a great point here. I don’t think most new production construction will last 30 years. Take a look at the latest “Centex” development and the quality of the construction and the corners they cut. Most homes don’t even have gutter systems! This may save a few $$$ but it means a lot of water ends up dripping on your imitation-stucco walls and soaking in the house.
Exactly, Robert. This housing bubble has even greater implications than affordability. I live in the southern part of Hillsborough County, south of Tampa. Used to be a rural area, but with easy access to Tampa. The rest of Hillsborough County considered this area a dump for the most part. For my money, it’s really a dump now, the way it has been developed. But, as much as it is a dump, it’s still better than most of Hillsborough and Pinellas and definitely better than Central Florida, which just might be a worse hell hole that Miami Dade. From what I can see, the developers here were a little late to the party, but they still managed to do a lot of damage and I think a lot of the bubble pain will be felt here. Many of these new developments look like cheaply built ghost towns. Above ground rabbit warrens. Give me an older Florida concrete block home with no drywall, just panelling over the concrete, with some shade and windows located for proper ventilation and a secure roof. If you want wood, use only cypress (which is water and bug resistant) and Dade County pine, which is naturally termite resistant.
Palmetto ,so true! Once was a place to enjoy the natural enviornment now the natural envior. is a walmart next to a zero-lotline rats maze, next to….
As to building standards: You would build a 900sqft. bungalow because you knew not if ,but when a hurricane detroyed it, you could rebuild relatively quickly ,and affordability. Now you have 5,000sqft. monstrosity that makes insurance unnaffordable after a minor tropical storm due to damage….Knowing this ,the building is allowed ,and shake their heads on what to do next?…Another big storm is coming. Not if ,but when
Eastof, you are right. The storm is coming, there’s no way it won’t, the heat here is unbelievable. Even worse than last summer. So hurricanes will have to happen to cool it off, it is inevitable. People talk about global warming and about how it is caused by CO2 emissions. I have this theory that this is only part of the reason. Trees and greenery cool the air and make it breathable. I’ve often said that in Florida, you can have development if you also have the trees to absorb pollution and provide shade. I’ve been watching the reports about how global warming has revved up dramatically over the past five years. Could it be that the denuding of the landscape has contributed? Coincides with the five year time period. Wonder if the housing bubble has contributed to global warming. OT, but also wondering if these military actions in the Middle East might not also have something to do with it. I understand they’ve been putting some really nasty stuff in those weapons over there, more than traditional ballistics. Wonder how that affects the environment? We may not know for years. But, if you read this month’s Vanity Fair article by Christopher Hitchens, you can find out all about how Agent Orange has affected the entire country of Vietnam. Let’s just thank our lucky stars that Monsanto never sold dioxin to developers as a way of clearing land. (Or did they?)
I’ve been thinking this myself. Some rolling blackouts would make that place vry undesirable. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet.
It’s coming. Rollin’, rollin’, rollin, Rawhide! (From exposure to the Florida heat)
Dead on. My in-laws in Polk (full blown native crackers) live in a beautiful house that they built themselves 30+ years ago that was designed for the enviroment. They only turn on the A/C a couple weeks a year (unlesss they have company). Even when it’s 95 outside, it is normally not much over 80 inside without A/C, and very comfortable with the breezes.
Of course the definition of snowbird is someone that buys a place here and KEEPS their home up North. Obviously the rising prices have made this much more difficult, so they would have to sell their Northern place, and live here all year long, enduring the Summer heat and Hurricane season. I would guess that a decent percentage of retirees wouldn’t be crazy about that idea.
I always thought that stucco was best used in the desert where you don’t get alot of rain . Doesn’t Florida get a lot of rain at times ? You should use the right materials for the location .
No retirees want to live in Florida year round. They only want to be there in the winter when other wise they would be freezing in the north. In Naples, I know three Snowbird couples who bought years ago and are now cashing out. They plan to rent for the season and not pay high taxes, insurance etc. And none of them care that house prices are falling since they bought their homes 15 years ago and have still made a killing.
Palmetto has some very good comments. The way they are building houses around the Tampa area should be criminal. Small shit-box houses stacked on top of each other. The quality provided in those houses would be negligent if there were such a law. The moronic builders and buyers don’t think of the infrastructure. It used to be possible to get from Brandon to downtown Tampa in 20 minutes at 5 PM. Today it’s more like 45-60 minutes because there are only two feeder roads that are serving an additional 10,000 houses.
I have walked through some new development and am completly abhored at the way the houses are built. They have no consideration of the Florida lifestyle. They are built to be energy hogs in a state where A/C is a must 9 months a year. They cut every tree down which can provide some protection from the brutal sun. The crappy stucco they are putting on the houses fades in a couple years from the constant heat.
There are many reasons that FL r/e will fall significantly, and the rise of the suburban nation in the Tampa area is a big one.
The worst setting, in my mind, is Pasco County, although NW Hillsborough takes second place (I haven’t been to Valrico/Apollo Beach, so I can’t speak for that area). There is little to distinguish the houses from each other, and the clearcut landscape looks like it’s been deformed. We’re supposed to believe that these homes are valuable beyond putting a roof over our heads?
The irony is that many specialty license plates, and names of local sports teams, celebrate the “wildness” of Florida. In real life the only “wild” thing happening around here is when elected officials say no to developers, which happens about as often as the temperature drops below freezing.
Moman, what is your update on renting?
Let me say that I would have to be PAID to live in some of those subdivisions. I completely hate the dumbing down of our society and suburbs are a perfect example, but I’ll save that rant for another day. Pasco county is a complete mess and I feel sorry for the crackers who lived there in modest homes with yards for years to be uprooted and find a subdivision in their back yard. I drove down Race Track road the other day (NW Hillsborough) and it’s a very sad sight indeed.
The rental call was not made due to some intereference by a man named Bud light. Maybe tonight.
Moman, they’ve also got LARGE shit-box houses stacked on top of one another. I’m renting right now, and was told by my insurer that IF I bought another home in Hillsborough County within 18 months and IF that home was built after 1980 and IF it was located east of 75 they MIGHT consider re-issuing me insurance. It was the part about “built after 1980″ that made me just about mess myself. One of the big myths is all that diarrhea about how much better the houses are built due to the new codes that came about after Hurricane Andrew. I’ll just bet the bubble caused those codes to go out the window. And your observations about the way the houses are built are right on the money. One good power outage here in Florida and these developments will turn into mortuaries.
And Moman, how about that Crosstown Expressway, eh? What a piece of crap. I’m just waiting for it to go the way of the Big Dig up in Mass. Except instead of the ceilings caving in, wait till some motorist finds himself driving along on thin air, because the roadway collapsed into a sinkhole.
I don’t get how that crosstown will help anything. There will be choke points where it begins and where it ends. It just disperses the traffic slightly once it’s used, but in fairness I haven’t been out that way in a year or so and maybe they have do the entrances correctly to keep traffic flowing. I’d hate to be on that thing when a wreck occurs, but maybe it’s better to be on it than under it.
The only areas of Tampa I have found pleasing are the older neighborhoods in South Tampa and seminole heights (the safe areas). The rest of the areas are either cinder block hell or suburbs. It amazes me how much people are willing to pay for those crappy homes. Pasco county is another story. Why in gods’ green earth would someone want to live up there and commute an hour each way to work? Wesley Chapel was nice in 2000; today it’s the bland suburbia that is the same everywhere. If these people did a cost/benefit analysis, spending a little more and living closer would win every time. I worked with a guy who drove from Lakeland each day to Pinellas county. 2 1/2 hours home on a bad day.
There are a lot of comfortable houses in the area but as usual, society only values new. I did see a new strip mall on 4th street SP earlier, it looked pretty nice but typical Florida, it’s right beside a trailer park.
“Old” Carrollwood, for a suburb, has some appeal–I read that when it was built in the 1950s, Dale Mabry Highway was two-lane! On the other hand, I used to live on the other side of Dale Mabry in Carrollwood Village, at lot of which basically previewed what Pasco would become in terms of ugly suburban anomie.
I don’t believe anyone could commute here from Polk County and enjoy his or her life. I once had a recruiter try to convince me that Winter Haven was a 50-minute commute each way to Tampa. After she said that, I didn’t believe a single word she said about anything.
The recruiter was correct. It is 50-minutes via single prop airplane from downtown Tampa (startup to shutdown). She probably forgot to mention it was by plane
Moman,
I suspect you are right. The cross-town elevated roadway is supposed to relieve Hwy 60 out of Brandon, and Causeway Blvd./Lumsden road, but I don’t believe it will help either.
The problem is the JAM into Ybor City and the downtown area. Causeway rolls into 22nd street which is a major truck route out of the port. Everyone is trying to get onto the Interstate at Malfunction junction. But 22nd street goes down from 3 lanes to one lane to turn onto I-4. I have written the DOT about extending this, but it won’t happen.
The alternate roadway, 40th street was closed off with the new I-4 widening, leaving only 50th street and 22nd street.
The backups will continue to worsen as more people move in. Additionally, the new MALFUNCTION “repairs” still bottleneck at the HILLSBOROUGH RIVER, creating a permanent backup for the next SEVEN YEARS, when the next
phase of road widening is planned. I think I may shoot myself.
I can normally get from Auburndale to TIA in 45~50 minutes, but I also try to time my flights so that I am not on I-4/275 at rush hour too. Add another 10~15 minutes to get to Winter Haven, and 15~20 minutes to get through malfunction junction during business hours.
My friend “has” to sell now. What a shock. But he still won’t price under the lowest in the complex, despite the fact that over 10% of it is for sale and nothing has sold. These people are firmly entrenched in their view of what they “should” get and it’s going to take some serious pain to shake them loose.
Good, they deserve each other. Ride it to the bottom tools.
This jump at the end the last bounce before the fall?
http://tinyurl.com/p32da
I hear some of them have been borrowing money to buy back shares. This debt, combined with the coming land write-offs should seal their fate.
Okay, we know Florida is toast. Anybody care to speculate on price decreases this early in the game? I’m guessing 40-50% when all is said and done. Anyone else???
I’m guessing 97′ prices with some areas down to 95′. Not sure what percentage that would equate to.
2000/01 prices would be a giant haircut. Don’t underestimate how much prices went up in the last 4 years or so. That said, if prices came down to mid-90’s levels, it would certainly be more in line with the economic and ecological realities down here.
Yes, I at first thought 2000/01 prices would be about right, but with the energy and insurance costs, mid-90s is where it would have to go to bring things back in line.
Did you see the SpTimes article today about rising electric costs? Those suburban yuppies in their SUVs who are barely making ends meet can’t hardly afford another $100/mo on the electric bill on a Florida salary.
Maybe they’re dealing meth. It’s become the popular way to supplement income in Florida. LOL!
Oops, was I out of line? Just joking. Sorry.
Meth doesn’t seem to be a huge problem down here YET. You might be onto something though, should be easy to cook in the SUVs, and if they burn it up, at least they have solved a problem.
Hey, you’re just calling it like you see it. There’s a reason crime goes up during hard economic times. People turn to drugs and alcohol to get through the day, they’ll do anything to get money etc. Don’t feel bad for that comment - meth is becoming common nowadays
Actually, Polk country use to be the meth production capitol of the US. They needed the rural areas to hide the small of it’s production and the interstate access to ship it out.
smell, not small
I tend to agree with 40-50%, at least in Orlando. Just going by historical trends, Orlando is about 40% overpriced. And I’m not convinced prices will drop that far without overshooting a bit.
I was planning on moving to the Orlando area with my now ex-husband back in 2002-2003. At that time, we were looking at homes and were thrilled at the prices! We never did buy (thankfully or I’d be stuck down there in a custody battle), but my point is even if homes dropped back to just 2002 prices things would be more “normal” (in Orlando at least).
Florida laws are pretty brutal on child custody stuff. I have a few friends that would move in a second but cannot due to children, etc.
i’m thinking we will be more like at 2000/2001 prices will be the low and this should be around Q1/Q2 2009,, We will see signs of a start of a recession in Q2/Q3 2007,,, IMO only …
I keep thinking 2002 prices was the max price houses should of gone given the low interest rates . The 2004 and 2005 price increases were just plain crazy .
11,229 listings and only moving 141 units per week is over 18 months worth of supply,
Having been priced out of my hometown SoFla market in ‘99, I would like to see prices fall back to ‘98ish levels.They would of course have to also take into account the differences in interest rates.
Even at those rates, though, with increases in power,fuel,food and no raises at work since 2000, it would be a tough time…
I actually live within walking distance from the house that is featured in the Herald Tribune. I stopped and read that rediculous auction sign months ago. I think that house has been on the market for at least 5 months, if not longer. I have had 4 house on my street for sale for over 9 months. All 4 have dropped the price 10 to 20% with no taker. Some has changed realtor twice or more.
My guess is: if you could have bought home X for 300K in 1999 and the same house sold for 720K in July of 2005, then 450K will be the low for home X when the bubble is fully deflated.
Even though prices can crash below fair value on the down side, you have to remember the once builders have sold out all their spec homes they will stop building if they can’t sell for more than their building cost. Or they go out of business. Either way, eventually inventory will be worked off.
Unless the US enters a major recession ( which is possible) and people lose their jobs and thus are forced to sell their homes, I can’t see home prices going lower than 2001-2002 levels. Of course that is still a very significant drop. One that will relieve most speculators of their life savings.
One that will relieve most speculators of their life savings.
_________________________________________________________
That’s what depressions are all about.
Old timers here are still shaking heads at the run up in prices, especially those that recall the doldrums of the 70-80’s when you couldn’t give away houses.
As the unaffordability,job deficit and storm warnings increase there will be more than enough houses to go around-and no one will buy them even at 99 prices.
It isn’t going to be pretty.
Look at Japan! Much of the RE collapse was 80% and took 15 years to hit bottom. And Japan had savings, WTF does the US have to stave a collapse?
My guess is the psychology of Japanese vs Americans will make our decline play out differently. We’ll drop much faster, much quicker and probably not get as low as 80% - maybe 40-50ish over 4-6 years. Just my guess of course.
Depending on the area, and how overpriced it has become, I think most FL prices will drop back 1/2 the gains made during the five year run up. The balance of the price increase will be backfilled by waiting for the fundamentals e.g. rising wages; coming up to meet the lowered price levels. My guess on this timeframe is three to five years from when prices begin to drop significantly (which they show signs of doing right now). Gordo
Reading the comments about crap “standards” for buildings:
Where we live, it’s nearly all newer build in the not-so-terrifying school districts. (Some very gorgeous, upscale older-home neighborhoods in the city, but that’s for dinks, empty nesters, and private-schoolers.) Even in a bargain market, I don’t relish what our choices might be, having watched them build a lot of this junk.
Wondering out loud here if there might be any good news for those who want to have a house built *after* the debacle? One acquaintance say, “Only if you want to divorce”, but she’s bitter. The builder of her 7 yr old hovel is well connected with city contracts, and she was majorly screwed on many aspects of the construction of her home. Got inspectors out who would verbally confirm many problems & defects, but refused to put anything in writing.
The corruption theme gets old, but I’m starting to wonder if it’s “enough” for home prices to take a beating - considering everything from crap construction to increasingly challenging insurability issues (yes, in the Gulf region, but really there’s insurer flight from various locales and various sectors of HO insurance, all over the country) - quite a bit might have to change for homeownership to return to being a manageable risk for the “little guy”.
So true, Memphis. Right now there’s a major lawsuit going on involving with one of the major developers here in Florida. I wouldn’t touch one of their homes with a ten foot mosquito. But I just happened to be in South Florida during the early to mid-nineties, when there was a major problem with one of their developments in Miramar, which was built over a dump or landfill. They had sold out the place and turned it over to the homeowners association. Then, some of the houses started to sink while the green space in the center that the houses were built around started spewing up old bed springs and other junk. I don’t recall what the outcome was, but it was on the news for weeks. I would have thought they would have been toast after that. But oh, no, they just bought out another developer and expanded to other parts of Florida. I would never buy a home from a builder or developer in an HOA these days. It’s just a recipe for disaster. The name of the game is to sell as much of the development as possible and turn it over to the HOA and get out, sticking the homeowners with the problems. Give me a house in a traditional neighborhood, where I can hire my own inspector who can tell me what’s what.
One of the little “tricks” that someone pointed out to me was that in Maryland anyway the builder can build the streets sub-spec and save money on construction but then they can’t be turned over to the county. Legally they’re just private roads (read driveways) and so all maintence in perpetuity is done by the HOA, even though you’re paying the same taxes as people in old neighbords where the county or city maintains the streets.
Jim, this sort of thing is exactly what I was talking about in another thread when I mentioned “confidence” as the true value of fiat money. This whole bubble and in fact the state of the US today can be summed up in the word “confidence”, or “no confidence”. We are finding out that we can’t trust our elected (er, unelected?) officials. We can’t trust our doctors or the medicines and treatments they provide not to kill us. We can’t trust many of the people we do business with. Can’t trust the banks or lending institutions, builders, etc. People will part with their money only for so long as they believe there’s value in what they are getting in exchange. When they lose confidence, that’s when money and other assets lose value. That’s why I know, no matter what the Fed or anyone says and does, we are in for a major ass pounding here. Because when enough people get burned, there’s a collective loss of confidence, which equals a major loss of value.
I remember back about a decade or so, one of the same builders that is in trouble today built what was called the “home of tomorrow” here in S Fl. These homes had “state of the art” security controls and virtually everything could be controlled by this central “nervous system”. Homeowners came home to sprinklers that were on for days at a time, garage doors that would not open or close, alarms that wold go off randomly, you get the idea. Many homeowners ended up literaly ripping the controller out of the wall and sued the developer.
Florida has a long history of scam artist and crooks. I wouldn’t buy a new home period and have always hired my own private inspector when I have purchased a home.
Anyone that has not read it yet, I would recommend reading about Mike Morgan’s current litigation with a well known Florida builder. It will shcok you.
My sentiments exactly, BigDaddy.
Can’t find that on Yahoo search.
Moman, I think the website is something like “globalenconomicanalysis.blogspot” or something like that. Guy by the name of Mike Shedlock, known as “Mish”. Just enter “Mish” or “Shedlock” into the search engine and look for the above named website. He has all the info on the lawsuit on his site.
Also enter “Morgan Florida”, I think that’s Mike Morgan’s firm. What a guy. Wish there were more like him around in this business. Got sued for telling it like it is.
Here’s an article from the Business Week Hot Property Blog quoting some “expert” who asserts that prices in Naples will rise 51% 1st Quarter 2007 versus 2006 and Phoenix will rise by 34%. Read the whole thing, then click on the link and visit his firm’s website.
http://tinyurl.com/qprkb
Holy Cr*p, it ought to be obvious the model is broken with those numbers.
Ah Fl. As far as I’m concerned they ought to saw it off at I-10 and let it float away. Incredible whats happening there and it is moving northward. Mobile is beginning to be infested with these speculator leaches, I can only hope the national picture gets so bad those creeps go away before they inflict major damage on our area.
Bugs Bunny did that once, and it worked. Just floated right away. That was the time Bugs was offended that rabbits had such a low pelt value as stated on the sign he read by the side of the road.
Davey Jones….No, No you want them to come in..Let them upgrade everything ,and put in the granite tops ,and then pick out your desired place for pennies on the dollar. The downtown needs some new money anyway..
Latest numbers 7/28/2006 from Miami:
How soon until we hit 40,000??? Things are starting to spiral out of control. Another $2000 off in a week.
Trend 07/28/2006 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month
Median Price $385,000 -1.2% -2.8% -3.5% -6.1%
Inventory 37,286 +4.6% +16.8% +57.1% +127.0%