July 28, 2006

‘Reality Is Here And Now’ For Florida

Some updates from Florida. The St. Petersburg Times, “Thousands of dollars in home-closing bonuses. Commissions more than three times last year’s rates. Deep discounts and even gas card promotions. In a rapidly slowing housing market, Realtors on Thursday found themselves suddenly amid a flood of incentives to sell homes at Thursday’s Tampa Bay Builders Association Expo.”

“As the Tampa Bay housing market stumbles, sales have halved in once-hot home producers like Pasco County for the first six months of 2006, compared with the same period last year. With fast-rising property insurance rates seen as the chief culprit, builders are fighting back with a range of incentives to get real estate agents back on the horse.”

“Beazer Homes handed out 5 percent. Lennar hawked 6 percent. Standard Pacific offered 10 percent on the second closing.”

“‘Last year, we did not have any inventory,’ said Lorrie Glover, at the booth for one of Pasco’s major planned communities. ‘Last year, we used to have a lottery for buyers. The market’s changed now.’”

The Orlando Sentinel. “During the frenzied real estate market of recent years, 29 condo towers with a combined 7,000 to 8,000 units have been announced for locations in downtown Orlando. Most of the projects have been postponed, however, because of the softening market and because of fast-rising construction costs.”

“Braving a cooling real estate market and volatile construction costs, developers of the 24-story Monarch condominium tower in downtown Orlando said Thursday they will launch sales in September with an eye toward starting construction as quickly as possible.”

“‘The faster we can stick a shovel in the ground, the better off we’ll be,’ said David Reed, a partner in the project.”

The Herald Tribune. “Concerned that student enrollment may not be as large as projected this year, Superintendent Gary Norris on Thursday instituted a hiring freeze for most elementary school teaching positions. The district also is not filling classified staff positions.”

“A continuing lag in enrollment this year may signal that housing costs in the county, particularly the Sarasota area, are driving away families, school officials said. ‘I blame it on home values,’ said Al Weidner, the district’s budget director who forecasts student enrollment. ‘It’s all the factor of the cost of living down here.’”

The Palm Beach Post has this letter to the editor. “Home ownership in Palm Beach County is in jeopardy. Out-of-control insurance premiums and taxes assessed on homes purchased during the past three years for twice their true value and more due to designer mortgages has resulted in hardworking middle-income and lower-income homeowners being pushed beyond their financial limit.”

“Foreclosures are increasing by the week, and the number of homes on the market has ballooned, as anxious homeowners try to bail out and move somewhere they can afford to live. Add the obscene tax rates on these homes and soaring insurance rates, and homeowners have no choice: Leave or be foreclosed on.”

“When they leave, the banks will be stuck with tens of thousands of homes that they will not be able to sell. Home values will plummet, and the county tax office will be left with huge gaps that cannot be collected. Tourism will vanish if there are no service staff. In the end, we will have created a ghost county that only the rich can afford to live in. This is a reality; it is here and it is now.”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Getstucco
2006-07-28 09:29:51

“Tourism will vanish if there are no service staff. In the end, we will have created a ghost county that only the rich can afford to live in. This is a reality; it is here and it is now.”

I hope “the rich” enjoy their front-row view of the dark windows in condo ghost towers!

Comment by LJR
2006-07-28 10:03:10

Should make a great set for the Michael Mann sequel to Miami Vice

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 11:10:23

OT, but I have a feeling this Miami Vice movie is going to tank big time. I saw the special they had on over the weekend and as someone who lived in South Florida and was in the production biz during the years when Miami Vice was produced on location there, there’s no way the movie will ever measure up to the show. Maybe you had to be there, but Don Johnson and Phillip Michael Thomas were true superstars. Johnson had so much charisma, he just totally lit up any room he entered. They don’t make ‘em like that anymore. Colin Farrell????? Gimme a break.
The special featured the original Miami Vice episode and I swear I got all nostalgic for those days, eighties fashions and all. That’s when South Florida was actually fun.

Comment by gorobei
2006-07-28 15:09:59

Good Lord! Don Johnson was good in “A Boy and his Dog.” But Miami Vice? All post-70s consumerism and posing, along with “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous,” probably did more to cause the current McMansion mess than anything else.

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Comment by Surffroggy
2006-07-28 16:09:58

Prices in Florida should start crashing soon. Look at this: “Miami area inventory approaches 62,000 listings!”
http://www.realestatedecline.com

 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 21:37:36

Wow! It’s the equivalent of a small city for sale! I think you are right.

 
 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2006-07-28 10:38:27

“ghost towers”

I love it!

Comment by Walker
2006-07-28 11:08:25

Housing Bubble Module C2: Ghost Tower In Distress

 
 
Comment by Vmaxer
2006-07-28 15:15:59

It was nice of the out of staters to pay for all that cheap housing Floridians will be enjoying in a few years. Be sure to wave goodbye as they leave.

 
 
Comment by george_ie
2006-07-28 09:33:16

Someone better call the Georgia Highway Patrol. There appears to be one hell of a pair of traffic accidents on I-95 and I-75 southbound lanes.

Those 1,500 people a day moving to Florida don’t seem to be able to get through.

Comment by X-underwriter
2006-07-28 09:48:13

Now it’s 1500/day leaving Florida. All the schools are having hiring freezes due to shrinking student enrollment

Comment by stanleyjohnson
2006-07-28 09:51:33

Does anyone know where these 1500 people will go?

Comment by X-underwriter
2006-07-28 10:20:54

My in-laws bought a property just outside Ocala in 2004. They just sold it one month ago for double what they originally paid and moved to Anderson, SC. So far, they say they like it better than FL.

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Comment by Curt
2006-07-28 11:06:38

Those 1,500 people a day moving to Florida don’t seem to be able to get through.

Now it’s 1500/day leaving Florida.

Does anyone know where these 1500 people will go?

In circles???

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Comment by Death_spiral
2006-07-28 12:21:28

somewhere that the mortgage company wont find them

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2006-07-28 16:08:45

Hey Death_spiral - your moniker gets more relevant with each passing day.

 
 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 21:39:37

From the condominium to the crematorium. And from the crematorium to the colombarium. R.I.P.

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Comment by Home_a_Loan
2006-07-28 09:53:04

I’m from Florida, though I have been living on the west coast lately. Born in Brevard county, and over the years enjoyed various parts of the state. All this stuff about Florida real estate is making me sad. I hate to see people driven out because of the excess of speculators. I hate to see the flippers driving up home prices so much that the residents can’t even afford to live there. Family members of mine who still live in Fl have been making noises about leaving, though they’ve been there for many years. One is now in the process of moving out of state.

Pure unfettered capitalism is great and all, but it comes with a price. Well, I guess those clowns are getting their comeuppance. I won’t be shedding any tears for the investors/specuflippers.

Comment by manraygun
2006-07-28 10:16:46

Good point. The fact that specuflippers may go bankrupt doesn’t account for the ways in which they destroy quality of life for others.

 
Comment by KirkH
2006-07-28 10:18:35

“Pure unfettered capitalism is great and all, but it comes with a price.”

Pure and unfettered capitalism wouldn’t involve a Socialist relic known as the Federal Reserve. So the lack of a free market for money created rediculously low interest rates which caused the housing bubble which means you’re 100% wrong on this issue.

Comment by flatffplan
2006-07-28 10:21:45

10-4 this is gov inspired speculation- buy a house , HUD ,fnm,fre are all big gov lov

Comment by manraygun
2006-07-28 10:32:05

The deregulation of the electric market has been an nightmare for California. Three cheers for Ken Lay, Unfettered Capitalist!

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Comment by Civil
2006-07-28 10:48:16

Sometimes a half-a$$ed attempt at a free market, like what California did with its deregulation in name only, is the worst of both worlds. Cali deregulated only the spot energy market and not the long term contracts market, thus throwing their whole market into chaos. Kind of like the fed who primarily affects only short term and not long term rates - can throw the whole system off.

 
Comment by KirkH
2006-07-28 11:36:21

From Mises.org
“Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, California residents are putting up with blackouts, threats of more blackouts, denunciations from politicians, and even death: 56 people so far. All because of a heat wave, and all because the structure of the industry is not designed for extremes.

Now, if markets were in charge, a heat wave would not be looked at as a problem but as an opportunity. Entrepreneurs would be swarming to meet demand, just as they do in every other sector that is controlled by markets. The power companies would be praying for heat waves!

After all, do shoe manufacturers see a massive increase in footwear demand as a problem? Do fast food companies see lunchtime munchies as a terrible threat? On the contrary, these are profit opportunities.

Just who is in charge of getting electricity to residents? A public utility, which, in the absurd American lexicon, means “state-run” and “state-managed,” perhaps with a veneer of private trappings. If you look at the electrical grid on a map, it is organized by region. If you look at the jurisdiction of management, it is organized by political boundaries.

In other ways, the provision of power is organized precisely as a central planner of the old school might plan something: not according to economics but according to some textbook idea of how to be “organized.” It is “organized” the same way the Soviets organized grain production or the New Deal organized bridge building. “

 
Comment by manraygun
2006-07-28 12:00:46

“Now, if markets were in charge, a heat wave would not be looked at as a problem but as an opportunity.”

Way too simplistic, IMO. For an opposing view on deregualtion.

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/07/28/behind_the_blackouts.php

 
Comment by josemanolo7
2006-07-28 12:16:52

my goodness, does it mean that if the energy cost from A is expensive I can switch to B. but I am using C’s power lines which charges exorbitantly for its use, I’ll dump switch as well to D’s power lines. i wish.

 
Comment by Tom
2006-07-28 12:33:12

But if they did free market with power lines, then you would have gobs of power lines EVERYWHERE!

 
Comment by Upstater
2006-07-28 18:44:39

“Now, if markets were in charge, a heat wave would not be looked at as a problem but as an opportunity. Entrepreneurs would be swarming to meet demand, just as they do in every other sector that is controlled by markets. The power companies would be praying for heat waves!

After all, do shoe manufacturers see a massive increase in footwear demand as a problem? Do fast food companies see lunchtime munchies as a terrible threat? On the contrary, these are profit opportunities.

Just who is in charge of getting electricity to residents?”

…..Except that electricity is not like shoes, or lunch. If you produce an excess of shoes, you can store them in inventory. You can put the excess salami in the fridge or even the freezer. ;)

You cannot store excess electricity. Therin lies the rub. Any extra one pays to produce it is lost w/o an immediate taker….. doesn’t matter if a week later you need the excess. You’ve got to produce the supply at the exact same time as demand. (At least this is how its been explained to me from elect. engineers)

 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 10:24:17

Home A Loan, I hear you. Florida has been so badly trashed, I am not sure how the state will ever recover. I knew we were in trouble a year ago when I sold something on ebay to a couple in San Diego, but was then informed that the husband would be picking the item up because they had a “second home” here. This puzzled me, because I have been to San Diego and couldn’t imagine why someone from San Diego would even want a second home here. Didn’t make sense. When he picked his item up, he told me with a sly wink that he lives in San Diego, but invests in Florida real estate and was making his money here. A Californicator specuvestor. May a thousand alligators feast on his weenie.

Comment by DinOR
2006-07-28 10:43:36

palmetto,

Good Lord! This guy is a glutton for punishment. Did he “research” to invest in the two most vulnerable markets in the country or do these “visions” come to him naturally? Hope your check cleared.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 10:52:55

LOL, Dinor! Yes, my check cleared and they left me good feedback, which ebayers call “FB”, so when I first read this blog, I was a little confused when I first saw the term “FB”, but eventually I caught on.

Actually, I think the guy had gone as far as he could go with San Diego, took his profits, invested them here and was maybe even selling off at that point, which would have been just around the right time. I got the impression he was sort of a shark and knew what he was doing, because he made mention that San Diego had gone out of sight. In other words, he was on to another herd of cattle to vulture.

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Comment by DinOR
2006-07-28 11:54:56

Sometimes I wonder if it’s not so much that these guys are “savvy” or “sharks” but more that they are unemployable in practically any other scenario?

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 12:27:11

Good point, DinOR. Otherwise they might work in a boiler room.

 
 
 
Comment by Greenlander
2006-07-28 11:15:33

There’s no way a thousand alligators could feast on something that small.

 
 
Comment by Moman
2006-07-28 11:32:31

I have grappeled with this question many times. So far I like it enough and am young enough to be able to make it okay. If I had a family I would be moving immediately. Not a great place to raise kids and I don’t see how it is affordable.

 
Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-28 11:58:03

I’ve been saying the same thing all along! I’m not here(on this blog) for the investment, because I’m jealous I missed the boom…. I’m here because I’m angry at what these slimeballs have done to my hometown! It’s a dirty shame and I don’t feel sorry for the northerners that moved down here thinking $500k was a great deal for a house not worth $250k! As more for sale signs go up, the radio and tv adds for real estate increase and the building continues when there are literally thousands of homes empty, I get angrier! I’m glad the halfbackers are moving out of state! Even if they stay it’s going to take years for Florida to recover! May as well take longer to recover without them! Sad thing is neighborhoods are ruined! The people who made millions in this fiasco won’t feel bad about the ghost towns they created, but rather that the money tree died.

Comment by josemanolo7
2006-07-28 12:22:41

don’t feel so bad. once prices comes down well enough, people will be coming back to live there again.

 
 
 
Comment by holly
2006-07-28 09:54:11

Forclosure in Florida. It was on the news this morning.
They used the term “foreclosure epidemic” (very dramatic!)
I guess not everyone could afford those inflated prices down here.
There is a big crime spike happening too. I wonder if this is related?
I’m going to hide now.

Comment by bystander
2006-07-28 10:24:17

What station in what city? I would like to get a clip. Thanks

 
 
Comment by SSSM
2006-07-28 10:07:08

Though I do not believe that many people are leaving FL but I bet it is a lot. The housing prices will have to come back to 2000-2002 levels because fundementals are not there with the current pricing. and those incentives are just stupid to say the least. Just lower your price and close the deal.

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2006-07-28 10:12:26

1. Home values will plummet, and the county tax office will be left with huge gaps that cannot be collected.

2. Tourism will vanish if there are no service staff. In the end, we will have created a ghost county that only the rich can afford to live in.

These two things cannot both happen at the same time. I think #2 is the present, #1 the near future.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 10:43:54

I agree, Larry. Tourism is toast, but no one is admitting it yet. Those numbers will not be out until after the “season”. That’s when the moaning will start. And that’s when people will wish the mom and pop hotels and motels along the beaches were still there, instead of the empty “lugshurry” condos and faux-tels. Hey, can’t collect tourist taxes if there aren’t any tourists.

We’ve got a gubernatorial election coming up in November, too. On the Republican side, one candidate is a phony bag of wind and a former insurance commissioner, largely responsible for the current insurance mess (boy, does he like to avoid those angry homeowners, he left a meeting up in Pasco County in a hurry because the citizenry looked like they were in a lynching mood). He’s running on a platform of “conservative family values”, so I have to laugh like hell when I hear about how school enrollments are down. Where’s the families? I guess his campaign staffers forgot to tell him that A) The families aren’t here and B)They can’t live in or eat family values. Another candidate is the current attorney general. Nice guy. Kinda bland. Seems to have backed off from the conservative family values platform. If he gets elected, I’ve got a feeling he’ll make lots of sympathetic noises to try to make the citizenry feel better, but that’s about all he can do. On the Dem side, a current Congressional representative. ‘Nuff said on that. The dark horse is the former labor lawyer and state legislator. I think this guy just may have a plan and he is one tough cookie, from what I’ve heard. Whatever happens, we’re going to need a governor who has some stones and cares about the state and its people.

Comment by Moman
2006-07-28 11:46:22

Did you guys see the recent article about the Orlando hotel rooms having a very high vacancy rate for this time of year?

Tampa tourism has been extremely slow this year from what I can see. I noticed Clearwater beach was packed on the 4th weekend (cheap fun??).

Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-28 12:08:05

The hotels are empty because people can rent a house with a pool for less than $100 a night. Share it with another family and you have one heck of a deal if you’re visiting the Mouse!!!!!!!!! Stayed in one of these homes recently! Talk about a mess! 75% of the neighborhood was for sale and the builder wasn’t even complete!!!!!!

There’s a billboard in SC or GA advertising an adult community that says “Florida’s Full”. Yep, Florida is definately full! Full of empty houses!

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Comment by josemanolo7
2006-07-28 12:25:29

are you guys still using those diebold machines for elections? ’nuff said.

 
 
 
Comment by KirkH
2006-07-28 10:15:02

This is worse than your standard inflation. At least with CPI increases costs rise everywhere. That means you don’t have to move. This is going to be a lot like Katrina when you consider the numbers of people that are going to have to relocate.

 
Comment by X-underwriter
2006-07-28 10:25:30

I think the allure of Florida is diminishing. High home prices and insurance were the log, I mean straw, that broke the camel’s back. The Carolinas and other southern states are becoming more populated by northerners and now successfully compete for retirees. Boomers see FL as where their grandparents went to die and they don’t want to follow in their footsteps

Comment by LIrenter
2006-07-28 10:45:22

so next up - Carolinas etc. will become ruined too?

Comment by Walker
2006-07-28 11:12:30

As a Carolinian whose family has lived in Wilmington for over 200 years, I can tell you that this is already happening.

Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-28 12:12:15

I remember taking a social studies class back in the early 80’s and there was a whole blurb about the sun belt and how the population was going to increase as more and more northerners moved there. Guess it’s happening!

Nothing sadder than going to a restaurant for some good ole southern hospitality and getting a waitress with a New Jersey accent!!!!!!!

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Comment by Upstater
2006-07-28 18:53:08

“Nothing sadder than going to a restaurant for some good ole southern hospitality and getting a waitress with a New Jersey accent!!!!!!!”

At least they’re still from the states and you know what they’re saying. When my neighbor’s daughter in Norwood, MA got her first job she was the only one there who spoke English as a primary language.

 
Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-29 18:42:54

Haven’t been to Wilmington in years. What a sad day when our old southern towns no longer have the sweet sound of a southern drawl. Yikes! let alone no english!!!!!!!!

 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 21:33:28

You should elaborate. No english ? You know spanish is really easy to learn. It’s real funny seing anglo-saxon linguistic insecurity about english. Very funny.

 
Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-30 19:02:58

Spanish is easy, so is french. I only use my french when in Canada or France. I only use my spanish when in Mexico. Haven’t been to spain. Refuse to use it in my country. Just like many illegals can pick and choose when to use their english, I do the same with the languages I learned in school. Of course, I don’t have to use my french when I get rear ended by an illegal alien.

My comment, if you’ve ever been to Wilmington you would know what I mean, is that they are known for their southern hospitality. Part of the charm is the dialect that the locals use. Southern sprawl and illegal immigration has changed these wonderful areas. Nothing insecure about my english!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ken best
2006-07-28 10:27:53

“Foreclosures are increasing by the week, and the number of homes on the market has ballooned, as anxious homeowners try to bail out and move somewhere they can afford to live. Add the obscene tax rates on these homes and soaring insurance rates, and homeowners have no choice: Leave or be foreclosed on.”

The solution is to have similar tax structure like CA Proposition 13.
Also, add a 50% tax on short term gains for properties that are kept 5 years or less. Let the flippers pay and deter future flippers.

Comment by destinsm
2006-07-28 11:02:52

We do have a tax law similar to CA Prop 13… It is commonly called “Florida Save our Homes”… Check out link below…

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050917/NEWS/50919003/-1/SPECIAL09

 
 
Comment by winjr
2006-07-28 10:29:38

““When they leave, the banks will be stuck with tens of thousands of homes that they will not be able to sell. Home values will plummet, and the county tax office will be left with huge gaps that cannot be collected.”

Alright, ‘fess up. Who’s the wiseguy on this blog that wrote this letter?

All I can say is — Nicely done!

 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-07-28 10:50:03

“With fast-rising property insurance rates seen as the chief culprit, builders are fighting back with a range of incentives to get real estate agents back on the horse.”

can you believe this bullshot???
how about the primary reason is “THE PRICES ARE TOO HIGH” - these monkeys think the party has to last forever - all these incentives are to the brokers so they can steer whatever sheople are left to look at the steep price homes they can’t afford without toxic loans - when any savings should go directly to the buyers…

if the homes were much less expensive (as they could be with builders still making decent profit), they would have lower mortgages, cost less to insure, less taxes - less everything all the way down the line

I love the line about getting the agents back on “the horse” - that’s street slang for Heroin - and its just what they’ll need after the cold turkey episodes they are experiencing as each “selling season” passes with the whole gadilla falling apart around them.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 10:56:03

Frosts my patootie. The realtors make out coming and going.

Comment by buddhaman
2006-07-28 11:29:34

“Frosts my patootie.”

LOL - haven’t heard that one in a while. Anyway, Palmetto - i know you are Floridian who thinks it is shot down there - however I am going to take a shot in Tampa area in a couple of weeks - I like it so much more than the east coast of Fl. - I will have my equity in bank from selling in NY - will stay at a relatives house in Tarpon Springs while we scout out the area - we are coming to live, not specuvest (my wife’s family is in Tampa area), and I love the prospect that I will be able to sit and watch panicked sellers and their realtors try desperately to sell me their overpriced POS while I have no incentive to buy until I find exactly what I am looking for (which is basically a roll-back to sub $100 per sq. ft. pricing for a single family home) and roll my lowball offers in until someone capitulates.

I can buy in 6 months or 6 years, as long as its on my terms and pencils out right, i’ll take the plunge. It will be such a change from the no inventory/waiting list/high pressure sales pitches we heard all last summer while we visited there.

Comment by Moman
2006-07-28 11:52:49

Good luck. The Tampa area is very nice and comfortable but the speculators have jacked up the prices something ridiculous. As I’ve stated in other posts, things are slowing down considerably for the realtors and mortgage brokers.

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Comment by Home_a_Loan
2006-07-28 11:54:09

Tarpon Springs - nice place. Say high to the Greek chaps on Dodecanese! Howard and Sunset parks - very nice!

Good luck on the insurance costs and taxes, though. They are pretty high in coastal FL areas.

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Comment by palmetto
2006-07-28 12:25:33

buddhaman, I am not quite ready to give up on Florida yet. I have lived in South Florida, the Orlando area and in the Tampa area and I think you are making the right choice as to the area. As bad as things are, I have found the people who live from Hernando County south through Sarasota County and east to the border of Polk County to be relatively chilled out compared to South and Central Florida. More professional and courteous, less rabid. I can’t speak for the Jax area or the Panhandle. And it does seem that prices, especially rents, are more realisitic in Pinellas County. Until a couple of years ago, Pinellas was more expensive than Hillsborough, for example. But it seems to have switched, and I think that is a direct result of the housing bubble. Pinellas was already fairly built out before the bubble (word of caution, it is VERY congested and hard to get around in Pinellas), so not so many rabid builders and insane FBs. Don’t be afraid to lowball. And every time you do, shake your head sadly and talk about the insurance. And, make sure any contract you tender has an insurance contingency. Good luck. I’m rooting for ya!

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Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-28 12:29:26

Have you tried talking to Ryland recently????

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Comment by pismobear
2006-07-28 14:46:02

Keep your wife away from Suzanne, I hear that she’s moved to Florida. To make your day, I saw what looks like a hurricane moving your way, on the weather channel.

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Comment by Neil
2006-07-28 11:14:53

I feel sad for the residents of Florida. :( I’m talking about your normal middle class workers and retired folk. Between insurance and taxes, they’re hosed. The insurance companies are having to insure for $300/sqft replacement costs that should be $100/sqft, so no wonder rates are going through the roof. :( And speculators have driven up homes to beyound crazy and thus the taxes.

We doomed to see a forced national migration on a scale not seen since the Oaklahoma dust bowl. :( This is going to kill the bubble states. California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, DC, Boston, etc. will all be forced to sit and watch as jobs move.

The worst part is that not all of the jobs will stop at the national boarder. :(

We’re in for quite a recession. I’ve given up calling it a small recession.
Neil

Comment by bluto
2006-07-28 11:30:27

Insurance companies generally don’t pay for the land under the house (which is usually where appreciation comes from). The structure may have increased in price with the building boom but even in California it is not to $300/sqft. Insurance rates are up because we had two very bad hurricane seasons right in a row and the surviving insurance companies aren’t going to loose money a third year in a row. Most barely survived last year.

 
Comment by Bob the Banker
2006-07-28 11:53:27

Neil…enough with the frowny faces already.

A little financial adversity for most Americans would still mean they lead a life free of most of the problems endured by the bulk of the human race. A recession isn’t like a war, a plague, a famine or a tsunami.

 
 
Comment by jack
2006-07-28 14:53:14

This week appraisal orders shot way up. We are up 150% in one week. Guess what? All are refi’s from ARM’s to fixed. The brokers are now touting the conversion.

Too bad we are coming in below the remaining unpaid balance and there is no bottom in sight.

It will get worse, much worse.

 
Comment by yvonne
2006-07-28 15:44:22

I work for a large touroperator and I can tell you that the hotels in Orlando are suffering and putting in a lot of effort to sell the rooms. Rates have actually gone down for us in orlando. In Miami most hotels in certain areas of Miami Beach ( sunny isles) have all but disappeared, people don;t understand that not everyone is a cool SOBE type and we have alienated a segment of our tourists who will not pay the outrages rates for the priviledge to stay at an overpriced hotel on the beach. The high end hotels are still doing well ,the budget hotels are struggling.. I for one, have missed out on the “boom”. Sold my home for personal reasons years back and when I started looking again could not believe how high prices had gotton ( Miami), so I waited and now prices are even double so high! Seems the higher the prices the more popular the units become. The result is that most of us who did not buy are priced out of the market. it is not just the service personnel that can’t afford it. I make $40K a year before taxes and hubby is doing a bit less. With one child and paid of cars we still could not pay a mortgage on a $300k unit! Our tax system is also not helping out. Next to a higher mortgage there are also more taxes to pay. I am very frustrated and angry with myself for not having bought when I thought it was too expensive in 2003, but for the live of me can not understand how people around here can afford this lifestyle? $40k in Miami is above the median income..
I hope prices come down but in my area, North Bay Village, I don’t see this happening.People in my bld have bought even this year and have been able to flip the property a few months later for around $30 k more.
I just don’t get it. I am not ready to leave Florida but fear I will have no choice.

Comment by Home_a_Loan
2006-07-28 18:15:36

Hey, the gods will reward patience. Kick back with a nice wine cooler and enjoy the beach. You only feel this way because your attention is drawn to it - guaranteed.

I’ve been renting many years and not until the last 2 years or so have I felt some kind of bug like I want to buy a house or something. Nothing really changed much. It’s not me - it’s the social climate. Everybody’s talking about real estate. Even talking about it while it death-spirals keeps you wanting a home. It’s purely a function of all the attention it’s getting. The blogs, the NAR ads, the commercials for “get-rich-quick” schemes, the infomercials, the economic reports, all this and much more have conspired to create an acute awareness of residential real estate. This has become a mob obsession, and it is not healthy and will not last.

When housing becomes a good buy again, you may not even be thinking about it. Hard to believe, but that’s how human nature, especially mob-human nature, works.

 
 
Comment by Jannifl
2006-07-28 17:12:15

North Tampa anecdotal:
I asked a co worker today when her house, which is in the process of being built in Meadow Pointe-Southeast Pasco County, would be done and she said she was probably going to have to walk away from the contract and lose her deposit because her condo in Tampa Palms isn’t selling. She said there is no contingency in the contract about selling her condo first and she cannot afford 2 mortgage payments.
Now I am seeing regular people getting there fingers burned in real estate here everyday. Real estate is dead, dead, dead here and hopefully everyone is holed up where they are comfortable staying for a while cause they are STUCK.

Comment by Jannifl
2006-07-28 17:29:16

“…cause they are stuck.” That is except for us crazy renters who are foot loose and fancy free. YAAA HOOO. Thank you fellow bloggers for getting me to where I am today.
On a more somber note, they had a big lay off people at my work place today, mostly high dollar non-essentials. Interestingly enough they are keeping all the people who cannot afford to buy real estate here.

 
 
Comment by yvonne
2006-07-28 18:04:52

I have an idea.. why don’t we renters do volunteer work as “home sitters”? All of those empty homes don’t make a good impression for would be buyers. It would be a civil thing to do, a good deed, we could make the neighborhood look like a place where people live and without paying the rent, there would be many stay home moms adding to the value of the community?

Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-28 18:30:36

When we lived in Dallas during the last housing bust, they had Castle Keepers. They lived in a home rent free so as the home had a family feel. You had to pay your moving expenses and risked being moved frequently, but they were able to live in some pretty nice homes. I wonder how you find out about being a castle keeper???? Sounds good to me.

 
 
Comment by Thankfulrenter
2006-07-28 19:22:31

I used to live in Pasco county in the mid-nineties. Squaring with what I am hearing about how the bubble changed the area and what I remember from living there is odd. It was a sleepy, quiet and OLD place. Now it is overrun with construction? Wow. How many of the over ninety drivers ran into construction equipment/vehicles?

 
Comment by yvonne
2006-07-28 19:31:10

I just looked at homes in Savannah and Charlotte, amazing what your money can buy there.. Anyone any idea on how the job market looks? If prices don’t go down soon in Florida there will be a good number of people moving North. I guess the rich better learn to do their own laundry and cook their own meals.

Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-29 18:38:50

Used to live in Charlotte. Lots of banking jobs. I think I read you are in the tourism business, Savannah may be a better option for tourism. You could try the coastal areas of Hilton Head, Myrtle Beach…… as well. Housing is definately much cheaper than Florida. You also get a better quality home, at least you did five years ago.

 
 
Comment by Jackie Childs
2006-07-28 21:09:45

I knew it was time to sell my investment properties (residential) when the guy who cuts my hair was talking about flipping houses. I thought it was funny. He was condescending to me as he was cutting my hair about what a big “investor” he was becoming while I was a fool working for a living. I’m so stupid, I know.

It was really very odd and a bit uncomfortable. Oh well, it was just like they were “ringing the bell” at the top.

I sold my units shortly after this conversation. I was tired of being an out of state landlord. I came within about 6 months of hitting the peak.

I hope that smug Russian kid that was cutting my hair didn’t quit his day job.

 
Comment by FL to PA
2006-07-29 06:02:49

I lived in Fl from 1978 to 1996 and can only wonder how much the wages have REALLY INCREASED ENOUNGH for the average FL person to afford a house? I was and still am a Joe sixpack not proud of that but what the hell takes all kinds right? I bought a house in Safety Harbor (near St. Petersburg / Tampa) in 1993 for 75K and the company I work for 16 years was sold and I was given the chance to go along with the new company and I went for it, for better or worse. At the time I left, I was considering selling my house in FL and was told by a realtor it could bring as much as 80 to 85K (should have did it, oh well) but was not sure I could live in PA and wanted a “Just in case place” . I am setting here now looking at a old pay check stub (remember those?) and I was making $9. an hour take home after taxes with $22 to 401K was 258 for a 40 hour week wifey was making about a buck more an hour, monthly bills were around 1200-1400 ( No car payments or any Toy payments) Just the bare min of stuff you Must have like food, clothes and power,water. I know that we were always scrimping afraid to buy anything unless we had CASH. Yes we did SAVE money but not much. So are people REALLY making 17 to 20 or more an hour working in a no degree job??? I know what we were being paid was average for factory and non - professional jobs at that time. If not then what are they making? and if not how the hell are people buying houses they expect to live in and enjoy for any length of time? I am making 35k a year now wifey is making 44K and we STILL COULD NOT MAKE A PAYMENT ON A HOUSE MUCH MORE THAN 250K with out being stressed out big time! Are there many houses down there in the 100-200K range that are livable or in a safe place you would want live?

OK smart folks pick away at the spelling and grammar, at least I think you understand what I am saying.

Fellow sixpackers lets here it form you THE REAL TROOPERS. I’m with ya.

First, only and last post on any blog.

 
Comment by yvonne
2006-07-29 07:50:53

I agree with you! The majority of Florida residents do not have a 4 year degree and even then it entirely depends on what kind of degree you have. One of my co workers has a masters in social studies and as a social worker would not make more than $38 k per year. he is making a bit more now doing a job you do not need a degree for. It is mind boggling. Without trying to sound arrogant, I sometimes look around our pool area ( I rent) and look at the people knowing most of them bought. For the life of me I don’t get it. Not only do they own the condos ( or the bank) most also have nice expensive cars. I make $40.00 k a year and hubby less then that. I have an old car and could afford a nicer one but only because my rent is “just” $1,150 p/m. I feel worried though because even though logic tells me it can’t go on, I can’t help but look in wonder at how much people are spending everywhere.

Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 21:48:05

Same thing in the rest of the world.It’s absolutely incomprehensible.Me neither, I don’t get it. Somehow they just keep on getting more and more and more credit. No comprendo.

 
 
Comment by Taki
2006-07-29 10:04:54

I lived in Miami (had to move from GA for work) in 2004. I actually worked for a commercial real estate company and drove most of Miami-Dade that year. I could not understand where all the money came from. Everyone had BMW’’s, Boob kobs, butt implants, nice clothes, went clubbing all night long. I was making around $36k at the time and really was losing money every month. I shared a 2 bedroom (average apt. nothing special) for around $1500 a month or so. Between student loans, rent, car note, etc. I certainly didn’t have neough money for all these things. I always wondered how the high shool grads, dropouts, etc survived.

I got laid off, and moved back to GA, making almost 10k less now, but I can actually afford more here than when I was in Florida. Food prices, gym membership, gas, etc were outrageous as well. I think RE costs down there trickle into everything..

 
Comment by yvonne
2006-07-29 11:31:30

What always gets to me is how everything is supposed to be so normal”. I know someone who used to work at a bank ( used to..) and once told me that in order to get the American dream, just charge like mad on your credit cards, keep $500.00 in cash somewhere to pay for your lawyer and file bankruptcy. He eventually did and even though he will not get any credit for the next 7 years he has enough toys not to worry about this. I’ve seen several examples of this and it upsets me as a frugal saver, to look at how much people can get away with. Florida is great especially in the winter, but you are most definetely living in the shadow of the wealthy here and this can also be very frustrating. I have had people tell me that to live here is like living in a constant vacation…

 
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