July 29, 2006

‘Get Paid To Learn’ In The Housing Bubble

Several readers suggested the topic of what’s been getting built in this boom. “Since there has been an orgy of building along with this bubble, I am curious how people feel about what has been built, how it has been built and where it has been built.”

“How do people feel about all these cookie cutter homes? (What has been built) I assume people are buying them, or they wouldn’t be built in the first place. HOAs are now more widespread than ever and I think they will become a nightmare, for both FBs and HOA boards who lien homes for non-payment of HOA dues and then foreclose.”

“Shoddy construction: The stories are already out there and in Florida, Mike Morgan’s litigation against a major builder/developer may be just the tip of the iceberg. What are people seeing in other parts of the country, or is this a Florida phenomenon? What corners are being cut and will these just be minor issues, or could some rise to the level of having to be condemned?”

Another said, “It’s not just Florida and not just new homes. In the Northeast, many small two- and three-family dwellings were rehabbed into condos. A handful were well done; most slapped granite countertops and polyurethane onto watery basements, wood rot, tilted floors, UFFI insulation, old wiring and old plumbing. They are a ticking time bomb, because the flippers were too cheap to fix them right.”

One from Florida. “I know Lennar is under the gun in Florida. And I seem to recall seeing that Ryland has quality issues as well. How about condo conversions? Will some of these homebuilders be put out of business because of quality problems?”

Another pointed to repairs. “Ongoing maintenance is a little discussed, hidden cost of home ownership. Some can be deferred. (ie. not replacing a roof). However, some cannot. A poorly constructed home may use way too much energy. Much like owning a old unrepairable car, at what point do homeowners throw in the towel?”

More on HOA’s. “IMHO once you’ve got a HOA, you might as well have a landlord. Either one can tell you what color your front door will be, what kind of curtains you must have, and to not have any toys in your yard.”

One reader saw an end to the trend. “We will see a lot of the cookie-cutter subdivisions HOAs go away. All it takes is one lapse and then it all goes to hell. My friends live in a subdivision with a HOA that prohibits chain-link fences, sheds, and above-ground pools. One neighbor said in essence ‘f**k you’ and put up a shed. Then the second neighbor put in an above ground pool, and the chain link fence isn’t far behind.”

“I’m pretty sure than once one thing is allowed to slide the HOA can’t legally do anything. This is a perfect reason many of the cookie-cutter subdivisions of the 1980s are now lower income housing. HOAs will fail and you will soon see McMansions with 10 vans parked in front of them and a car in the weed filled yard.”

The Miami Herald. “The signs are everywhere, stuck in the ground along U.S. 1 and plastered on construction sites: ‘Wanted: plumbers, electricians, roofers.’ What they should also say: ‘Great salary and job security. No experience? Get paid to learn.’”

“Local companies are pulling out all the stops to attract workers because they face acute shortages of skilled tradespeople. Some companies are developing their own in-house training programs or adding as many recruits as possible to traditional apprentice programs. Others have gone as far afield as China to import skilled laborers to South Florida.”




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150 Comments »

Comment by pismobear
2006-07-29 14:13:57

Do you mean that I’m the first? Nina and Suzanne said it was ok to post here.

Comment by greenlander
2006-07-29 15:47:34

If Suzanne researched it, it must be true!

Comment by My3Sense
2006-07-30 07:25:42

What does one have to do to be able to have their posts be shown here? Agree 100 % with everything and everyone on this blog?

I have tried posting a few times now and it never shows up.

What happened to free speech?

 
 
 
Comment by landedeal2
2006-07-29 14:21:45

“The signs are everywhere, stuck in the ground along U.S. 1 and plastered on construction sites: ‘Wanted: plumbers, electricians, roofers.’ What they should also say: ‘Great salary and job security. No experience? Get paid to learn.’”

What they should say: low salary and no job security. Green card not needed. no experience ? Get paid to learn. fee phone card with job

Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-29 22:25:08

“Green card not needed.”

Home purchase financing available through no-doc application program…

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-30 05:23:01

LOL, GetStucco. Undocumented FBs.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-29 14:31:40

There is one huge complex of subdivisions in Cornville, AZ, that may be the section 8 housing of the future, because of the design. For this part of Arizona, the homes are way too close together. When one faces the front, 70% of the view is garage doors.

The nicer parts of this complex are more spread out, with custom homes. But much of that has serious HOA rules, including over 55 restrictions. There are two golf courses and I’m sure there are fees along with that. Basically, anybody could buy a plot and build a better house. The bizarre part; the prices have run up to $350k to $550k, and the overall vacancy rate is around 70%, with more being built. Lots of flippers.

Comment by DEWFL
2006-07-29 14:59:53

Ben,

In the typical McMansion subdivision in Phoenix, how far apart are the houses? Down in SFL (WPB) the McMansions are about 15′ apart. They should have stacked them to make a high rise luxury condo!

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-29 15:11:10

I don’t know, I’ve only driven through a couple of times. The ones I saw up here were about 15′ apart. No fence. Almost non-existent yard space. Sorry, gravel space.

Comment by DEWFL
2006-07-29 17:24:38

I guess the yard space is supposed to be inside the McMansion. This makes sense in hot climates of Florida and Arizona…Yee Haw!

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Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 01:43:46

15 feet apart??? That’s crazy. You’d be better off finding a design with no windows on one wall and butt 2 up within a few inches of each other, with the garages adjacent.

Sorta like the UK semi-detached, but without a party wall. Noise insulation should actually be OK, with 2 unbroken external walls and an air gap between you and your neighbours.

Plus you’d get a slight reduction in heating/cooling costs, and you’d maximise the usable yard space.

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Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 07:32:26

The same thing has been going on here in So Cal since the early nineties. Huge homes on small lots with bedroom windows facing each other across a few feet of side yard. No real back yards to speak of. From far, the division looks like a sea of stucco. Whatever small yards people have are always in the shade of the two story houses around them. It is insane - when I first saw them I thought, “Who in the world is going to pay premium prices for homes with no space or privacy? Why not just buy a townhome?” I was wrong. People flocked to them. I have to say, though, they are a ‘peeping tom’s’ dream home!

 
 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 16:34:14

Retirement homes I guess? like Prescott?

 
 
Comment by spacepest
2006-07-29 14:32:16

What they should say: low salary and no job security. Green card not needed. no experience ? Get paid to learn. fee phone card with job

Ain’t that the truth! My husband’s home repair company, which is made up of mostly plumbers and handymen (all U.S. citizens), never touch new construction homesites (unless it is a custom home) for this reason. Larger builders have so screwed local tradesmen in favor of semi skilled immigrant labor that they no longer want to work for them.

“Get paid to learn” in this type of business often means “get paid when the builder feels like it.”

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 14:49:22

“Get paid when the builder feels like it”. EXACTLY. When we lived in South Florida, we used to represent a company that supplied architectural fixtures for educational institutions and we had to deal with the general contractors. Many were honorable, but then the low bid (called “Value Engineering”) trend hit. Subs were pressured to work cheap, cheap, cheap and many of the subs who did quality work were priced out by subs who employed the semi-skilled immigrant labor and bought cheap imported supplies and fixtures. But even then, those cheapo subs had a habit of just abandoning the jobs halfway through, when they realized that if they finished the job, they wouldn’t make a profit. So they’d work only up to the point the job was profitable and no more. No biggie, just dissolve the corporation and start another one. Or operate under the radar somewhere else. Nothing the GC could do about it.

But, historically, immigrants have dealt with this sort of thing through “protection groups” like the Mafia. Today, I would not be surprised if some of these builders, when they attempt to stiff the crew, receive a visit from the representatives of the modern day gang-bangers.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-29 14:56:49

‘just dissolve the corporation and start another one.’

An unfortunate truth in the business. It’s easy to set up in another state.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-07-29 15:11:30

Or across the street.

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Comment by pick
2006-07-29 15:22:20

Another truism of new construction in South Florida. All new homes are in HOA’s and all are gated. For the owner, it means higher HOA fees (either from rent a guards who man the gates or repair and replacement of the cheap “builder grade” arm gates) and the roads stay as private roads. In eight or ten years when the cheap paving job disintegrates, the HOA (which is the homeowners) have to contract out the street repairs. The local goverment collects at the same tax rate, but doesn’t need to spend to maintain or improve the infrastructure within the gates. And in some cases, the developer has financed some infrastructure work (usually rec facilities like golf courses or opulent clubhouses) with bonds which become the responsibility of the HOA. Bonds all eventually must be paid off.

Comment by Jim A.
2006-07-30 03:37:16

Up here, doesn’t have to have a gate to be a private road. If it’s built substandard the county won’t take over maintenance. They also won’t plow it in the winter. So a little savings on day one leads to expensives for the owners as far as the eye can see.

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Comment by foreclose_me
2006-07-29 16:41:05

There was a news story in the past month that reported Mexicans came back and fired shots at a contractor who fired them.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:09:27

Wow, I’ve been wondering not if, but when this would start happening. What part of the country? This could be a hard lesson learned, especially for the sleazier contractors, who thought they were getting cheap, meek labor they could screw over. They may find out there’s no free lunch, because for some of the workers, there’s no downside when they have nothing left to lose. No identity to track and just go to another part of the country with a new ID, or leave the country period. Whereas, the regular guy who works in the trades trying to support a family, when he gets screwed over, the contractor just laughs and says “Get in line and take me to court”. Which the average Joe can’t afford to do. Even if it is a matter for small claims, he may get a judgment, but then he has to go through the whole materialman lien procedure. And then it’s the homeowner who gets screwed. Sheesh, what a mess.

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Comment by My3Sense
2006-07-30 06:35:49

I might just be playing the devils advocate here, but when all of you people shop for goods and services, do you go straight to the most highly priced store and feel good about buying the most expensive item? Or do you go to Walmart and buy the bargained prices goods made in China?

Unions in this country have screwed things up for a lot of people. A unionized electrician can stop work when a non unionized worker comes onto a job site. As a contractor, where can I sign up fast enough for this type of headache? Instead, I can get the job done for a quarter of the cost, and not have to deal with the “brotherhood” of lazy workers.

My point is, what is the difference between buying non American made goods and being able to complain about a contractor who uses cheaper non American workers.

Kind of a double edge sword, no?

I am not against you folks here. I believe strongly that things are very wrong here. But you can’t have your cake and eat it too you know.

 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-29 14:34:47

I had never encountered HOAs on homes - only on townhomes and condos. The first time I saw them on SFHs was when I was looking for a house in Florida in 2002/2003. It was odd to me. I’m sure there are some newer developments around me now that have them, but those wouldn’t be developments I’ll ever be able to afford to buy in. No matter - I prefer the older (and smaller) homes anyway.

Comment by Ozarkian from California
2006-07-29 14:46:44

A relative’s former house in Menifee, CA (near Murietta and Temecula) has a HOA that I’ve been impressed with, especially now that many of the houses are rentals. The neighborhood looks GREAT, 15 years since it was built, and I attribute much of this to the relentless harassment of the HOA. Yes, it’s annoying to receive notices about “lawn spots”, “fence needs painting”, and even “burnt out light bulbs”, also “no RV parking in driveway”, but the results are that everyone has kept up well at least the outsides of the houses and I believe helped maintain the value of the houses (we sold the house in May ‘05).

*all of these complaints, and more, were ones that we had to deal with re: my relative’s house.

On the other hand, I previously owned a condo in Boston and the HOA, of which I was a member for awhile, was a hotbed of political intrigue and maniplation by the developer. Things improved significantly when we voted him off of the committee.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-29 15:00:04

I grew up in a neighborhood that was built in the 1920’s. No zoning, just deed restrictions. No problems at all.

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-29 17:19:52

Yes, it’s annoying to receive notices about “lawn spots”, “fence needs painting”, and even “burnt out light bulbs”, also “no RV parking in driveway”, but the results are that everyone has kept up well at least the outsides of the houses…

Question (since I know so little about this topic) - what, exactly, are people paying HOA for if they have to do all the upkeep? See in the condo/townhouse communities where I’ve experienced these fees, at least certain exterior/grounds maintenance was included.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:28:27

In my own experience, HOA fees apply to common areas, like common landscaping, lights and light poles and electricity, pool, roadways, entrance, clubhouse, any management, pest control (like red ants)common area taxes, insurance for common areas, legal, bookkeeping, there’s a whole lot of stuff. But when it comes to your individual house, townhouse or villa and its immediate landscaping, that’s on your dime. You’d be surprised what HOA fees have to cover sometimes. Like, if a raccoon gets in the pool, you sometimes have to pay a private animal control firm to come and trap it. You’d think local city or county government would do that, but here’s the catch when you live in a HOA: the HOA has to take care of it, whereas, in a traditional neighborhood, you can call animal control. It’s a real eye opener.

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Comment by ric
2006-07-29 22:02:51

Or you just shoot the damned thing and bury it in the yard. Problem solved. No HOA, no animal control, just get it done and move on.

 
Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 07:45:49

Ours also covers homeowners insurance (including earthquake), and maintenance like roofing and painting on our individual homes - not just common areas.

 
 
 
Comment by SouthwestCalifornia
2006-07-29 17:22:12

What I’ve found in my area (Temecula/Murrieta) is that people move here to get an expensive looking new house in a good (by California standards) school district at a (by California standards) low price. The houses are, for the most part, of fairly good quality but I see a lot of problems on the horizon economically. The majority of people are long distance commuters and with gas prices continuing to rise people on the edge are starting to feel the strain. Also, I’ve noticed that the number of adults per house seems to have increased a lot in the last few years. I think the buyers that have bought in the last few years have mostly been minorities and they’ve moved from the Costal job centers far inland to live the American dream of home ownership, usually with 3-4 people working to pay the bills and with pretty risky adjustable rate mortgages. Also, a lot of the people here appear to spend more than they earn; my guess is home equity loans are keeping the local retail shops going. Also, real estate is the major industry in this area and it has just started the downward phase of it’s cycle. What happens as gas prices continue to rise and homeowners can’t find anyone to lend them any more money?

Comment by lmg
2006-07-29 19:40:42

Very interesting piece in the LATimes recently about how Cantarell, the super Mexican oil field was going into sharp decline. Since Mexico is a direct supplier of the U.S., the loss of this field would have a major effect on gas prices. This is especially so, given that the other super oil fields (e.g., Burgan in Kuwait and Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) have also reached peak and are in decline.

Along with higher gas prices, the inland empire (e.g., Temecula, Riverside, San Bernadino) homeowners will also get hit with very large utility bills for air conditioning. Obviously, this will have a huge impact on the ability of some of these homeowners to make their mortgage payments.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pemex24jul24,1,6754747.story?coll=la-headlines-business

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Comment by peter m
2006-07-29 19:42:03

This may be the pattern throughuout the exploding RE Housing market in the Entire Riverside/San Bernardino county regions. I have traveled all over the Inland Empire, as it is called, and have seen a tremendous amount of new housing tracts springing up. Rialto, Corona,Fontana,Norco, Temecula Valley, Beaumont, Devore, R Cucamonga, are just a few of the places where all this exploding new inventory is going up.

I have wondered who is purchasing these way out of the way tract homes? Minorities, ecpecially Recent Hispanic Immigrants, may(IMHO) be the primary purchasers as they have large extended families and can only barely qualify for $300,000-$350,000 IE homes 3-4 hrs commute time from coast. And it is absolutely spot on correct that CONSTRUCTION IS THE MAIN ECONOMIC DRIVER IN ENTIRE IE REGION. The end of the RE construction boom spells doom for the IE economy. I will bet a buffalo nickle that foreclosure rates in the IE will be the highest in scal over next 2 years.

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Comment by lmg
2006-07-29 21:30:10

Two quotes from the internet:

“…The desert is a living thing…” and “…The desert reclaims its own…”

Gilman and Murrietta Hot Springs were once desert resorts that were connected by a long winding 395. People went there from Los Angeles and San Diego for the healing springs, and it took virtually an entire day to reach them. There was virtually nothing in this now “inland empire”, except for possibly the occasional gas station.

And is it was once, so may it be again.

 
 
 
Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-07-29 19:01:12

i pay the taxes i park on the lawn if i want.excuse me my nra dues have to be paid.

Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 07:58:10

Wow, Bottomfeeder, up until now - I really didn’t get your name. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

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Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 15:16:18

I think Florida has probably been ground zero for the proliferation of HOAs. There are a few good ones, but I think mostly they are a nightmare, unless you have a lot of money and can deal with constant assessments. In a traditional neighborhood, if your neighbor defaults, the worst that can happen is that the property becomes an eyesore until foreclosure is complete and a new owner takes possession. And even then, you can pester the local government to do something. But in a HOA, if your neighbor defaults, all the other residents have to take up a share of his monthly dues, until another resident takes possession. When a bank repos, they have no obligation to the association, otherwise they wouldn’t finance homes in HOAs. So they are off the hook.

And you have to cooperate with people when you have no idea of their problems or whether they are on medication or what kind of stress they are under. But if things get as bad financially as some say, what’s to prevent some stressed out, unstable FB who gets liened and foreclosed on by the association for non payment of due from giving some board member the old “bada-BING!”?

 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2006-07-29 14:53:25

The bubble has been good for NYC. The amount of money going into the facades, and the attractiveness of them, is better than anything that has been built since WWII. Whether it will turn out to be good for the last buyers and builders is another matter. But the city has benefitted from the development boom. Especially relative to the 1980s, when prices soared but we didn’t get any residential construction outside Manhattan.

Comment by JR Junky
2006-07-29 15:07:34

Most of the money in our area right now has gone into knocking
down small houses in retail zoned areas and building small rental stores on the bottom with 2 to 4 “luxury” condo’s above, most all are empty as the type of business to support $3000 rent is not viable in this type of parking restricted area, and who wants to have a $600k condo above a store on a busy noisy street. I wonder who the hell owns the paper for this nonsense????

Comment by Joe Momma
2006-07-29 18:00:11

This actually makes sense for some businesses. Imagine being able to close up shop and be home in 30 seconds. No commute. No gas cost. It could work - for the right situation.

 
 
Comment by edhopper
2006-07-29 16:17:11

Not in Queens. I see nice old well built AND well proportioned homes in places like Forest Hills being knocked down and replaced by oversized “Soprano” McMansions.

 
 
Comment by NYCBoy
2006-07-29 14:55:53

My wife and I owned a Ryland home. That won’t be happening again. We bought one of those cookie-cutter boxes that looked like everybody else’s cookie-cutter box. All of the sheet rocking is done by Mexicans. It is slapped in there. The house is haphazardly put together.

Needless to say that things don’t settle well. Then you have to keep on them to fix anything. It was horrible. The “craftsmen” come in for repairs. They might touch up the sheetrock but they don’t even paint what they fixed. We had one dope come in and do a repair in our bathroom. He must have had grease all over his hands. The wall was filthy when he left. We called. “Our guys don’t paint” was the response.

I am glad to be rid of that house. I’m glad I don’t have to deal with it as more and more problems from shoddy building surface. The character of American cities is being destroyed by standardization. All the neighborhoods look alike. The stores and restaurants are all the same. It is sad. How many of the houses being built by the “slap it together” homebuilders will still be livable in 50 years? They don’t make them like that any more.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 15:03:44

We had one dope come in and do a repair in our bathroom.

You’re lucky he didn’t leave a deposit in the toilet. That’s not uncommon here in Florida.

I feel your pain, though. Shoddy construction is a big issue in this state, at the peak of the bubble (summer) one of the local stations ran a story on how the builders were forcing people into mass closings on homes that were unfinished, or had major defective work.

 
 
Comment by John
2006-07-29 15:17:28

Over the last year plus I have been observing the construction, of SFH site in the Chatsworth area of the W. SFV. Convlouted is to say the least! The center of the project was a very steep hill, an old dirt bike path on 2 main crossroads.
After one solid year of grading and back filling. Plus full time buliding of serious retaing walls along with lesser slump stone wall with wild abandon not one single lot has been graded.
The local gangs have taken to tagging the fresh walls…. the place looks like crap…. The signs tout a high style development easy 1,000,000 plus area. Looks like getto….IMHO any easy year untill it will be open for sale…..LOL perfect DOA!!!!!

Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-07-29 19:05:49

is it on topanga and plummer if so i live close.they actually have poured foundations now.bad timing as the bubble has popped and they will lose millions.

Comment by masYmas
2006-07-30 00:03:36

Yeah I drive past this development on Topanga between Canoga and Plummer everyday and I chuckled when I saw that the “taggers” had a new canvas to express their artistic side on…
I’d hate to pay million+ on a home there only to repaint the wall every other day thanks to the local thug punks!!
Bad timing indeed for the developers…

 
 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-07-30 02:45:28

yet another reason to bag LA. That area is supposedly “decent” and you cannot keep this stuff out. First grafitti and noise pollution and trash issues, then before you can blink, full on gang warfare and homeless.

Gimme a break! What do you all get from living there? Seriously! It is a gross place! - not the natural beauty of the coastline, but people have ruined it beyond recovery unless everyone moves away for 1000 years.

Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 07:55:55

You are so right. It is a terrible place to live. Tell all your friends not to move here.

 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 16:55:17

Gangs seemed to move in when they built too many Apartments, I think in the late 1980’s. I used to work in the West San Fernando Valley. I remeber lots of Apartment signs $100 moves you in. Small houses on large lots were torn down and big apartments were built. Progress. Ventura county has growth control probably because of many of the residents moved from the SFV? Just guessing ?

 
 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 16:48:23

I liked Chatsworth better when there were still farms there. Is there still a park with rocks piled up high? Rocky peak I think its called?

 
 
Comment by groverenter
2006-07-29 15:18:54

In Coconut Grove - Miami, FL duplexes in 5k lots are replacing every old house when its elderly owner dies.
I’ve followed the construction on 2 of them very closely. The foundation/walls/roof structure where well made. From there on, every single contractor has done a sloppy job (be it legal/illegal/hybrid/whatever). Very imprecise fittings of any and all materials, cover up landscaping.
But I have to say, it will stand at least a category 3 hurricane (if the metal roof holds up - an all-American team BTW). I think the key word here is CHEAP, not whether it was an immigrant or not.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:20:19

The construction may be cheap, but in the Grove, I’ll bet the price isn’t. What do one of those duplexes go for?

Comment by Miamitownhouseowner
2006-07-30 08:04:40

I own a townhouse in the grove and am seeing prices for everything (except condos) going up. I use a combination of methods (talking to my realtor friends, zillow, etc) to determine the price growth.

I see a lot of condos coming up in the grove. There are 2 buildings nearing completion near 27th & Bird. There are a couple under construction or just completed one block from cocowalk. I know the asking prices have been very high and there are no takers. The Grovenor is also suffering…they were supposed to be all $1 Million + condos, but I see them listed in the $700K range.

I only place prices are not dropping is in the Portifino Towers in south beach…the only place where I would buy a condo. :( Prices there are too high….a 2 bedroom 1900 sq ft condo with ocean view goes for $1.2M. I love that building…but the prices have to drop 40-50% before I can buy. I doubt it will happen.

 
 
 
Comment by crash1
2006-07-29 15:19:03

I used to work in construction, meaning the trades. That was back in the days when a guy could make a living wage and raise a family. That was then. Now it’s really hard to compete with the mexican labor. Some are pretty good tradesmen, but most just do the same repetative job like framing or drywall with little understanding of what they’re actually doing. The homes are generally just thrown together using short-lived materials. Most of the homes built today won’t last 50-years without major reconstruction. The plastic plumbing, vinyl siding, staples, and OSB are examples of materials with a very short lifespan. To think of paying a cool million for something like that is a problem to me. The house I was raised in in Philadelphia was almost 200 years old then (40 years ago) and was still sound. And, don’t get me started on HOA’s. An HOA is nothing more than a mini government created by local governments to take the responsibility of providing services. Most HOA’s are like dictatorships, IMHO, intended to strip you of your property rights. The very worst one’s that I’ve worked with are run by older, retired people who have a lot of time on their hands. Generally, they want to keep a neighborhood to a better standard than they can afford by themselves. Most have the authority to fine you or seize your property if you don’t do things their way. Plus, you have no control over the monthly fees. They can be raised, and should be, to cover the inflationary cost of maintaining the infrastructure your city won’t. Developers don’t mind HOA fees because they just kind of hide in the background and pass to the property owner. OK, end of rant, but I am concerned about the quality of new home construction.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 15:40:05

I feel your pain, crash. Shoddy new home construction has serious implications for HOAs, because down the road, when things start to deteriorate, especially on the exterior of the residence, the homeowner has to fix it or else be fined by the HOA. Theoretically, all homeowners in the same HOA would experience the same problems, but some will see problems before others do.

Another issue here in Florida has been flooding in areas that didn’t used to have flooding, as a result of runoff from newer developments into long established neighborhoods. Does this happen in other parts of the country?

Comment by michael
2006-07-29 16:12:09

When you buy a home (or car or computer or anything else that isn’t consumable) make sure that you budget for maintenance. Many folks at work have had problems this summer with their cars due to the heat and inadequate maintenance when their vehicles were younger.

Comment by crash1
2006-07-29 17:02:04

Some types of maintenance can’t be planned for. HOA’s can change the rules at any time with the majority vote, but for example if your HOA is responsible for maintaining streets and the cost of asphalt go’s up, you’ll need to bite the bullet and cough up your part. How about the cost of lawn maintenance and water? Fence replacement. How many people check into the health and financial well being of an HOA when they buy? I’d say not many. I know of developers who intentionally underfund the HOA’s while they’re selling homes to keep the monthly dues reasonable. When they sell out, they care less how much they have to be raised to balance.

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Comment by michael
2006-07-29 17:46:49

If your HOA is competent, it should be able to warn home owners of issues that will have to be dealt with that cost money. We’ve had special assessments in the past but the most expensive that I recall was for $3,500. I’ve had car repairs in the past that were over $2,000 (I keep cars for a long time). Why should it surprise one to get hit with maintenance bills, for streets, sewers, fences, etc. from time to time?

 
Comment by crash1
2006-07-29 20:09:05

michael, I suppose that’s just part of life. My complaint about HOA’s is that they can be somewhat overbearing. The MSN homepage today has a story about how to fight HOA’s over these kind of problems. It’s not isolated. HOA’s were created by government to shift the burdon of maintenance onto unsuspecting homeowners. Funny thing is, you pay the same tax as the guy in a non-HOA development, and you fix your own sewer line.

 
Comment by michael
2006-07-29 20:17:55

Yes, sometimes you pay costs that would normally be handled by local government. And that’s not always a bad thing. We have a bunch of homes in our town that have sewage come up through their yards when it rains a lot. The proper solution would be for the town to provide sewer lines to those houses but the town voted down the money to run sewer lines so these people suffer when it rains a lot. Yes, we pay for our own roads, but that means that we have more control over when things get fixed and improved.

 
Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 08:10:44

Yes, it is important when buying a home with an HOA that you look at their Reserve study and the amount of insurance. Ours is fully funded. I have lived here for over 16 years and we’ve never had a special assessment, only our usual monthly HOA dues which have only been raised once just recently. Even during a total rebuilding of the complex after the Northridge earthquake. I have heard of other people having problems with their associations - maybe we just got lucky.

 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 17:10:38

Yes, I saw a new construction golf course flood a older residental area a few years ago in Moorpark CA. Golf course was built on a dry wash. Now the experts have re-zoned much of old Moorpark as a flood zone because of increased run off due to new construction and older bridges that can plug up underneath with debris and back-up alot of water fast.
Not good for insurance rates I’m sure.

 
 
Comment by Polo Bear
2006-07-29 16:13:23

How about that lovely *foam moulding* they are using to decorate EXTERIORS. That will startsagging and decaying within 3 years.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 16:19:58

Wow, Polo, I’ve seen that stuff and can’t freakin’ believe it! Which makes me realize, many of these homes are probably built no better than the Hollywood studio sets or the Disney Main Street! All faux facades.

 
 
Comment by bad chile
2006-07-29 17:05:25

I feel the pain of the lack of skills - but up here in New England, it is the flippers that don’t pull permits and think of themselves as master di-it-yourselfer’s. I’m a structural engineer, and back when I was looking (18 months ago - thankfully, never bought), the number of homes with significant structural problems was incredible. One I recall a flipper dropped new tile in the kitchen, then removed a column in the basement for no aparent reason. The new tile in the kitchen was cracked - exactly where the yield line would present itself. I kept my mouth shut out of respect for the RE agent (that and I don’t work for free)….

Someone here once said a nice side effect of this bubble is the general improvement of the housing stock: with this I disagree. I think most flippers did substandard work and most of what they did will require repair in only a few years. Just like the new housing stock being mass produced being “master planned” laid out by inexperienced engineers and being built by poorly paid laborers and approved by overworked, underpaid building inspectors.

- Bad Chile

Comment by txchick57
2006-07-29 17:15:34

They all watch a couple episodes of “This Old House” and think they know it all.

I truly loathed that show.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:36:18

I could never stay awake long enough during an episode to judge.

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Comment by manraygun
2006-07-29 18:31:59

“I truly loathed that show.”

Ha, funny. I agree. A better show would’ve been “F*ck this Old House” about people who decide not to restore their dream home and read a book or watch tv instead.

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Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 18:03:31

Nice picture. It is always the same thing. People confuse between the quantity and quality of a thing. What else should you expect when these building are being built for the purpose of raw speculation. You can only expect funny buildings bought with funny monopoly money printed by a bunch of funny bankers and lended to a bunch of funny lenders and buyers. Not a funny at all. You could call UNPLANIFIED OBSOLESCENCE. Maybe it is? Who knows?

 
Comment by mdtony
2006-07-30 01:52:27

You saw the damage and did not report it. The RE broker could be setting you up for the liability! A year later the floor damage is acute, and the Agent comes back saying “I had an engineer here and he said it was OK”
-Lawyers will be the only winners in this bubble.
An old NY RE saying:
-In Good Times, the developer thinks of the Architect (or Engineer, etc) as a Cost Center, because the Dev has to pay him.
- In Bad Times, the Developer thinks of the Architect as a Profit Center, because the Dev can go back and sue him for everything that went wrong. Trump’s Maxim.

 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 17:14:09

I think most flippers did substandard work and most of what they did will require repair in only a few years
—————————————————————————
Sure they didn’t intend to be around when there crappy work goes bad. Or they just don’t know what they are doing.

 
 
Comment by silverback1011
2006-07-29 17:39:24

We sold a gorgeous condo in West Bloomfield, MI, that my husband inheireted from his father because of the stinkin’ homeowners association. We had it redone ( pdated - very few structural problems), and then rented it out for several years. The troubles were with the HOA. It was run by old retired HOANazi’s ( most of whom were Jewish like my husband’s family ) who had nothing better to do then snoop around at 6:00 a.m. and send us tickets for strange cars parked overnight in front of our condo ( our renters were a married couple - a GM contract engineer and his wife, a emergency room nurse ), and they hadn’t had any guests overnight. We believed them. The HOA wanted $100 as I recall. We didn’t pay it. We also were astonished by the amount the monthly fee went up ( to over $325 ), and when we read that they had spent $19,000 on fighting a BICYCLE PATH, plus we were getting socked by continual “special assessments”, and we knew it was going to get worse, we just up and sold. The last fee they got us for was a $100 fine for our realtor putting up an open house sign even though we told her not to. They ripped us for that one and wouldn’t sign off on the transfer showing that we were up to date in our payments until we paid the BS fee. Good-bye. Their values are going down, not up, because of their behavior…

Comment by silverback1011
2006-07-29 17:42:19

Oops - I meant to spell it “inheirited”. Oh well - Saturday night lack of spelling skills, I guess.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:49:04

Stories like that are all too common, I’m afraid. But, as I have said, all it will take for PUDs (Planned Unit Developments) and their HOAs to fall out of favor is a few stressed out FBs going postal on their neighbors. I’m already seeing people touting the fact that their property has “No Deed Restrictions” or “No HOAs”. I think these properties might just, in the future, become the more desirable properties and will command top dollar. At least, that’s what the infomercial RE gurus have been saying for years.

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Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 08:18:24

Why didn’t you all get together and vote them out? The Association only has power if the homeowners say they have power. They can all be voted out during a special election.

 
 
Comment by peter m
2006-07-29 20:10:28

Just courious about whether todays HB’s, especially of mass-produced housing tracts, actually take the time and additional expense to apply hi-quality wood preservatives such as termin-8 green throughout entire wood structure, not just the areas adjacent to the ground or around areas subject to moisture such as bathroom/kitchen walls. Or actually use redwood. This would not be an immediate problem in Scal where long dry hot seasons would slow wood rot/termite chew, but say after 10 years many shoddily-built new tract homes might be seeing lots of wood/termite rot if builders skimped the wood treatment process or just slapped on frames using untreated cheap pine wood.

Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 02:01:28

I question your assumption that they are applying those preservatives to the areas subject to moisture etc.

 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2006-07-30 03:51:23

OSB has a shorter lifesapn than plywood? I mean it was born not as strong, but I would have thought that it lasted as long. (at least for walls which don’t get the flex that that floors do)

 
 
Comment by crash1
2006-07-29 15:38:14

Down in SFL (WPB) the McMansions are about 15′ apart.

There is a subdivision in my area where the houses are 6′ apart. That’s the minimum allowed by the building code (no closer than 3′ to a property line). Neighbors can actually reach out their windows and touch each other. The windows had to be staggered to keep people from looking directly into someone elses bedroom.

 
Comment by ex-Californian
2006-07-29 15:47:33

History Maker Homes have a subdivision going up several miles from me. I think many hear would gaze upon their work with utter revulsion, and the rest would view it with armchair anthropology goggles on (and a tint of revulsion).

Basically, they seem to buy plots of land in rural areas (where land is around $10k acre), then build houses on them very closely together. The houses they build are essentially cubes–designed to maximize square footage at the expensive of any architectural interest whatsoever.

Check out some of the floorplans and developments on their site.

The only saving grace I can find with them is that their places are actually affordable for working-class families ($80-110k).

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 16:09:38

Only slightly repulsive, but not the worst I’ve seen. Similar homes in the Tampa Bay area go for twice as much at least, not including the exorbitant insurance fees.

These guys are smart. I have seen the future and it is affordable housing.

Comment by ex-Californian
2006-07-29 16:40:16

These guys are smart. I have seen the future and it is affordable housing.

Perhaps.

But I’ve been thinking that their segment is gonna get hit the hardest in DFW. Prices (with some areas excepted) didn’t see an enormous run-up in the DFW area, but like everywhere else there was a big increase in credit availability. I think susceptibility to economic downturns increases as you go down the class ladder, so it wouldn’t surprise me if their target demographic is among the first to fold…

 
 
Comment by michael
2006-07-29 16:10:13

I guess they don’t believe in photographs. I didn’t want to watch any videos and you only get to see floor plans on their site otherwise.

BTW, your salary range contains our household (almost) with one income. Not sure if that means we’re working class or not. But we seem to be making ends meet on that working-class income. It helps that we live in a very low-cost area and paid off our residence in the 90s.

Comment by ex-Californian
2006-07-29 16:16:50

BTW, your salary range contains our household (almost) with one income. Not sure if that means we’re working class or not.

That wasn’t a salary range, it was a price range. :)

Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-29 17:25:29

Thank goodness you clarified. I nearly fell out of my chair thinking that someone would consider $80-$110K a working class household income range. (Well maybe it was the frozen margarita I’m drinking that almost made me fall out of my chair, but you get the gist of this comment ;-) )

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Comment by michael
2006-07-29 17:59:34

Well, with some of the housing prices out there, I thought that there might be some places where “working class” ranges would be a lot higher than what I normally think of “working class”.

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Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-29 18:08:26

No, I didn’t mean you - I read it the same way you did the first time so I thought ex-Californian was saying it.

Found this article while searcing on the topic of incomes: http://tinyurl.com/jduwf

 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 18:09:46

It’s really affordable in Brasil or Haiti. You could try cardboard housing of Sao Paula favelas or Haiti Cité Soleil bidonvilles. Not that’s affordable housing for the working class! It’s the next generation of new cheap housing for the ordinary Joe in the US and the West.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Jackie Childs
2006-07-29 15:50:43

I have a question for someone/anyone. I went to look at a home today as mine is closing in 3 weeks. I saw the price reduced from $580,000 to $570,000. My question is, why bother reducing the price 10k? I mean, I honestly couldn’t figure this out. If you have any ideas or theories, please chime in.

If you’re not getting traffic at your house, is 10k going to make a difference at that price point? I mean the 10k you could negotiate away if you received an offer or 2, but I don’t see the logic of the reduction. Any help would be appreciated.

I did ask my realtor how long it’s been on the market, maybe that will shed some insight. Is there a way to find that out other than calling my realtor?

Comment by michael
2006-07-29 16:04:48

Think about the psychology of the seller. They’re royally annoyed at having to lower the price by ten bucks much less $10K. To a buyer, it’s nothing. But to a seller, it could be 200 dinners at the Olive Garden.

Comment by Upstater
2006-07-30 06:39:15

I don’t think a $10k reduction will matter much on a home of that price. I think the seller may be considering the price of the next home he is planning to buy and worried about those numbers.

 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-29 17:27:40

If you’re not getting traffic at your house, is 10k going to make a difference at that price point?

My opinion? Hell no!

 
Comment by dawnal
2006-07-29 18:45:47

Jackie Childs….

Don’t look to buy another house. We are at the very beginning of a dramatic crash. Home prices are going to plummet. Rent, don’t buy.

Imagine what it will be like if you the $570,000 price down to $500,000 and in one year realize that prices had fallen and your house is now worth $400,000. Something like that is going to happen. Houses purchased now are going to be worth a lot less in a year. Don’t be a victim of that . Rent.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 15:52:12

True story. Only once did I live in a HOA and served on the board with a retired lady across the street from me. She had an alcohol problem and developed a sort of “friend crush” on me. It was really creepy. She’d look out her window to see if I was home and she’d either wait until I came outside and then she’d just sort of appear, or she’d call me to talk while she was half in the bag. The day I came outside and found her fixing my lawn and tidying up my plants while she was drunk was the last straw. I quit the board and started ignoring her, refusing to take her calls, etc. Big mistake. She started using her position on the board to give me a hard time. Needless to say, I got out as fast as possible, but even that wasn’t easy, because the board had to approve the sale and she was on it. A real nightmare and that is why I will never live in a HOA again if I can help it.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-07-30 02:52:53

All of these HOA stories are creeping me out.

 
 
Comment by michael
2006-07-29 16:03:10

What the reading tells me here is to be very, very careful buying a home built after 2000. I actually like HOAs. You just need reasonably responsible people to live in places that have them. I don’t consider flippers in that category.

There is the power issue but you have that with town management too (I live in a town with a Selectman and Town Manager form of government). I have seen some power struggles on the board but those seem to have been worked out many years ago.

Comment by sm_landlord
2006-07-29 16:49:45

“What the reading tells me here is to be very, very careful buying a home built after 2000.”

Here’s a broader rule: Be vewy, vewy careful buying *any* home built cookie-cutter style. I have seen subdivision houses built in 1972 that are utter crap, loaded with construction and settling issues. Shoddy construction is nothing new, it happens in every construction boom.

Some of the best-built houses I have seen were constructed during down cycles, when high-quality labor was available at reasonable prices.

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 18:03:41

At least a flipper wouldn’t stalk me.

 
 
Comment by carlostheforlorn
2006-07-29 16:33:39

FWIW, I read a quote in the MSM awhile back by a big shot executive for a national homebuilder saying that “building to last” wasn’t really a concern because houses were becoming more and more of a “consumer fashion good”. He said that people would want different and unpredictable features in a house 10-15 years from now, so new building/re-modeling would be required anyway.

I would have loved for the reporter to have had the gumption to ask him why people were taking out 30-40 year loans on a consumer durable item…

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:15:32

I think that guy must be building here in Florida. Can’t wait to see what his homes look like after another hurricane. Or even just a tropical storm.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 16:56:20

After reading the posts, including my own, it just hit me that the impact of the shoddy construction, as it becomes more widely known, will enhance the bubble bust. First, there’s the decrease in values as housing prices come down as an expected result of a housing bust. Let’s say a house was considered to be
worth $350,000.00 at peak and declines to $300,000 based upon recent comps. But then let’s say it has construction issues on top of that, and the homeowner, desperate to unload, gets the house devalued another $50,000.00 based upon drywall gaps, sinking or cracking foundations, crooked windows, doors that won’t close, etc. If this sort of thing becomes widespread, I could see a scenario where lack of confidence in new construction would add to the deflation of the bubble in a big way. Time will tell, I suppose.

Comment by SF Mechanist
2006-07-29 17:58:59

I think even if there were no new housing tracks since 2001, there is still going to be bubble bustage due to overvaluation. Shoddy starts may, however, increase the velocity of the process by making buyers and banks a little more wary, and could set off the FB panic that will bring on a sudden pop.

 
Comment by feepness
2006-07-29 20:30:13

This is yet another thing the median will hide. That house with the crappy construction simply won’t sell. And yet it will be used as a comp against the quality construction house sold later showing the market “only” droppped 20%. That 20% doesn’t compare apples to apples.

 
 
Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 17:37:04

Booking my flight to see this beauty:

http://tinyurl.com/gb567

Not a shoddy construction, good protection against the dollar.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 17:43:01

I love it. Looks like a bargain at twice the price, by US standards. How hard is it to learn to speak Czech?

Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 17:49:43

A lot of people speak English there.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 18:01:31

I don’t know if you are kidding or not about booking a flight to see that castle, but it really does sound like a helluva deal if you can make it pay for itself. Bet it’s a bitch to heat in the winter, but with global warming and all, that might not be such a big issue. I know a fellow who dropped out of the advertising biz in NYC many years ago and purchased a huge, rambling old home in Connecticut, on the border with NY, that he turned into a corporate retreat and over the years, he did really well and expanded the operation.

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Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 18:13:39

I was kidding about this particular one,because it will require me to quit my job and relocate there to run this business, but I am thinking about flying to Czechs to see number of properties of the smaller scale there.
It is the center of Europe, politically and economically stable country with low cost of living.

 
Comment by lmg
2006-07-29 19:51:12

And, of course, it’s the place to be if the Turks, under a renenergized Ottoman Empire, decide to resume their attack on Eastern Europe.

 
Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 02:15:40

Ummm, there’s a fair few places to go through from the SouthEast before you get to Moravia. It’s basically North of Vienna.

 
 
 
 
Comment by michael
2006-07-29 18:06:38

Very nice. At first I thought the price was for a few rooms but it appears to be for the whole thing.

Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 18:16:26

3 buildings total , number of operating businesses , 3.5 ha of land.

 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-07-29 18:25:06

There must be a nice little catch 22 somewhere? Be careful when buying a old castle. Maybe it is a historic monument with a lot of specialized renovations to do on it. And it’s true that the heating bill in Europe is much much higher, minimum double, than in the USA. Be careful with castles. The original owners have probably very good reasons to sell, and some of them hidden.

Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 18:28:56

Thanks for heads up.

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Comment by Mort
2006-07-29 17:39:17

I’ve noticed that you can see where the rafters run on many of the recently built houses. I bet the sheetrock cracks around doors and windows inside the houses within five years due to settling and/or wind as well. There are a few builders in sub-divisions around here who built right but they are in the minority and the buyer would have to be discerning (or lucky) to know what to look for. Even these builders could improve the efficiency of their houses with an extra layer of insulation here and there. These fly by night buzzards will run out of work when word gets around. In the meantime, write yourself some specs or lowball the crap out of ‘em. Don’t pay top dollar for a bottom shelf POS.

 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-07-29 17:52:57

There’s a tremendous amount of building near Houston. They’re expanding every highway in what seems like every direction, and along these newly-expanded highways are numerous new developments filled with gorgeous 3,500+ square foot homes priced $300 to $400K.

I was impressed with the construction and architectural design — curved oak staircases, arched windows, 10 foot ceilings on the first floor, brick on all 4 sides, culdesacs as the norm, etc, etc.

In the Northeast, Toll Brothers are considered the leading “luxury” builder, but the junk produced by Toll Brothers isn’t even in the same league as what David Powers homes, and others, are building near Houston.

Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 02:12:55

“brick on all 4 sides”

:shock:

So what the hell else would you expect to see on the sides of a luxury home? (I’m Australian, so I apologise if this appears a stupid question.)

Comment by kipper
2006-07-30 12:02:00

Brick veneer fronts, stucco on sides and back. Nice, huh?

 
 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2006-07-29 18:24:27

Let’s take a look at Salinas. A 1300 sq.ft. two story box runs $650K and up.There are cars in the driveway, no place to park on the street in front of your box. Affordable housing means that lots of kids playing in the street and you pick up all the trash in the morning. And who is the big builder; Creek Bridge. Houses are wonderful, cracks in the stucco, metal corners bowing or peeling off the drywall, and nails popping through the sheet wall ceilings on houses less than four years old. On the good side, no air conditioning which is only bad when temps hit the high 80’s.
BTW: last evening on a walk I saw a family (three separate car or van loads of hispanics) looking at a 600K + home. Looking at how they were dressed and what they were driving means that they will qualify for an affordable loan and probably have two families in the house. It doesn’t stop up this way. Just put these people in property they can’t afford and hope that when you go to foreclose that the property will sell for more.

 
Comment by homoaner
2006-07-29 18:35:01

HOUSE prices are set to drop in the US for the first time on record, US investment bank Goldman Sachs warned this weekend.

Prices in several segments of the market have already started to fall, and the overall market will move into the red even in nominal terms next year, fuelling fears that this will trigger a downturn in consumer spending and hit an already slowing US economy.

Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “The risk is rising that nominal US home prices may be headed for an outright decline in 2007. It would be the first decline in national home prices ever recorded, at least in nominal terms.”

Full article at http://tinyurl.com/lyetc

Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 18:44:19

I had a numerous discussions with friends about possibility of nominal decline of RE prices in USA along with decline of US dollar at the same time.
I think it is the possibility, the argument I was given is it can not happen at the same time, but rather the decline in dollar will support the falling RE prices.

Comment by dawnal
2006-07-29 19:09:03

A falling dollar carries with it the enhanced risk that our foreign creditors will buy less of our bonds or, worse, sell our bonds. There is evidence of some of this happening now. To the extent that we lose the creditors, we can expect higher interest rates. Obviously, a rise in interest rates will be damaging to the housing market.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-29 22:32:23

Dawnal –

This is precisely why I expect massive intervention in the bond market (esp. MBS), at least to the extent it is not already happening…

GS

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Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 19:28:11

The new Treasury Secretary comes from Goldman Sachs and I’ve heard it said that he was brought on board to manage the falling dollar, so I find it interesting that the announcement on nominal US home prices is coming out of Goldman. What this means to me is that we might have just reached the actual point of plummet. Look out below!

Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 19:42:49

Let me play the devil’s advocate here.
Falling dollar doesn’t hurt the average Joe The Voter, as long as China pegs its yuan to dollar and Joe can buy all the stuff he wants at Wal Mart.
Falling RE prices.. this is another story.
Given the pressure from top Goverment officials, the US Treasury and FOMC is now under, I am not so sure about the dollar strength.

Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 19:49:03

Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. If my theory is right, Goldman will be the institution that issues all the authoritative pronouncements over the next few years, with Bernanke and the Fed making bleating echoes. Should make for an interesting change in the financial landscape.

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Comment by NJ Bear
2006-07-29 19:52:09

That would be interesting to watch.

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 20:07:25

I think they just rolled the opening credits. Up until now, we’ve been watching the previews.

 
 
Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 02:23:05

China removed the renminbi/yuan’s peg to the dollar last year.

They are running an extremely dirty float, but it seems to me they are targeting about 3% per year appreciation against the $US.

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Comment by yogurt
2006-07-29 21:44:02

“First time on record?” Like there were no records kept during the Great Depression?

Inexcusable lapse by both GS and the reporter.

Comment by ajh
2006-07-30 02:26:01

Comprehensive national records in this area weren’t compiled by the NAR before 1968. I agree that it is sloppy reporting not to include this proviso.

 
 
 
Comment by veritas
2006-07-29 19:00:39

My Penthouse condo (rented) has several cracks running along the ceiling. The developer (Turnberry) which mind you is considered among one of the best down here in Miami, assured my landlord that this is normal “settling” of a new construction.

That may or may not be true, frankly I don’t know. But at 600K which is what the guy below me is asking for his identical unit, I would think stress fractures and metal fatigue would not be a problem.

Veritas_Faust
The LAST sane man in Miami

Comment by ric
2006-07-29 23:14:18

Veritas,
Let me assure you, in no uncertain terms, that cracks along the ceiling in a 600K penthouse condominium is not, and I repeat NOT, normal settling. The place won’t fall down or anything, but it is definitely a design or construction flaw. There is no argument.

Comment by miamirenter
2006-07-30 04:44:05

not really..cracks in a concrete bldgs (high rise) is quite common. Of course, the length and the width of the cracks would signify if it is just an ordinary -a la hair line crack (restraint/shrinkage) -or if there is something amiss. Once shrunk, these cracks are just patched and you can shag as much as you want in that penthouse//

Comment by veritas
2006-07-30 06:02:24

Well we like to get shaggy! The cracks are hairlines, running the length of the celiling in some places. A couple are coming down the vertical line of the wall where it meets at a corner.

Not terribly bad…but damn, I had hoped for more.

Glad I don’t own it!

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Comment by crispy&cole
2006-07-29 19:19:42

Average price per sq foot is finally coming down in Bakersfield - here is a 12 year chart of this:

http://www.kerndata.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=User.doShowAvgPriceHistory

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-07-29 19:21:16

We were very flat from 1994 to 2002. I wonder what happen in 2002. OH I REMEBER THE FED DROPS RATES WAY TOO LOW FOR WAY TOO LONG!!@!@!!@

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-07-29 19:30:56

Looks like the CSCO chart from 1994 to 2000!

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-29 19:37:41

Well, I think we can now give the housing bubble a nice funeral and proper burial. RIP, Bubble. It’s over. That Goldman Sachs info says it all for me.

 
Comment by joe
2006-07-29 21:03:04

we live in frisco, texas (north suburb of dallas) and i am confused at all the talk about a housing bubble in dallas. i do agree that there has been a lot of appreciation in the actual city (downtown) of dallas, but not that much in the surrounding areas. i was downtown at the new w hotel earlier this week and was amazed at how many condo towers are going up. not sure who is going to buy all those 500K+ condos? we built our home about a year and a half ago and the starting price in our neighborhood was 190K. it is now up to 220K, which is not uncommon in a new development. the homes are large with 10′ ceilings downstairs, nice elevations with stone and wood/tile floors. granite counters are standard and the homes range from $75-85/sqft. looking at other parts of the country, i don’t think there is much of a bubble here. the thing about dallas is the jobs pay as much here as the places that are selling homes for $200-300/sqft.

as far as hoa’s go, i have lived in 2 neighborhoods without hoas in phoenix and detroit (i used to be totally against them) and they looked like crap (cars parked on the lawn, unkept landscaping and terrible paint selections). to be honets, i would not live in a neighborhood anymore without an hoa. however, i would look closely at the annual dues and what they cover prior to buying in.

our yard is small (garage in the back), but is large enough to accomodate the pool we had built and still have a grassy area. granted it is not much grass, but a lot of people don’t want a large yard to maintain, me being one of them. i grew up in michigan and we had a huge yard and all i remember is mowing that monster every week. it sucked, especially since my brothers and i usually played in the park.
jmo

joe

Comment by BW
2006-07-30 00:53:56

You are right that the majority of the devaluation is going to happen in the condo towers downtown, but those price drops will reverberate throughout the metro area, even in Frisco. It wont be catastrophic but it will effect that suburb. Also, the things you describe (granite counters, stone and tile floors, etc) dont matter at all if the structure itself isn’t well built. Is your home in a new subdivision?

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-07-30 02:54:26

Frisco is one of the places I have said over and over has virtually no chance of appreciation, now or ever. You “think” that things have gone, up, they haven’t. It’s only because the property taxes are being jacked up even more. Frisco is way too far away from the employment centers. It is one of those white flight, suburban developer heavens with unbelieveably high foreclosure/bankruptcy rates and unlimited land available to continue to build houses to compete w/existing houses. It also seems to be out of state Ma and Pa “investor” Central, along with such other garden spots such as Keller and Little Elm, which have all of the same problems listed above. Go onto a site like Rentclicks and search DFW area houses for rent. You will find by far the largest concentration in Frisco, McKinney and Keller and I guarantee you that more than half of these are owned by people from out of state.

Now you get into the “real” Dallas and evidence of an extreme housing bubble are everywhere. Giant ugly McMansions built next to 1940s frame houses in old and even seedy neighborhoods. Townhouses and condos built on every square inch of inner city land - in places we would have laughed at 5-10 years ago and the builders actually thinking people can or will pay obscene prices for them. Existing houses in the M Streets, Lakewood, Intown, McKinney area, Oak Lawn, Preston Hollow, the Park Cities and North Dallas are all 3-4x what they were 10-15 years ago. No bubble? You’re not looking or your’re looking but not seeing.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-07-30 09:16:13

TxChick I was waiting for your response! ;) Frisco scares me too because nothing is over 10-15 years old. Thrown up in 2 seconds flat.

Read the thread about shoddy construction….

 
Comment by cactus
2006-07-30 17:42:19

My old neighbor moved to McKinny TX to retire, bought a house there. I was standing out front of her house and sighted along the chimmines of all the houses down the street, all chimmines were at slightly different angles. hmmmmm.
Also there was a popcorn ceiling in the bathroom and above the shower. But it was inexpensive.

 
 
 
Comment by ric
2006-07-29 23:09:26

joe said…

“as far as hoa’s go, i have lived in 2 neighborhoods without hoas in phoenix and detroit (i used to be totally against them) and they looked like crap (cars parked on the lawn, unkept landscaping and terrible paint selections). to be honets, i would not live in a neighborhood anymore without an hoa. however, i would look closely at the annual dues and what they cover prior to buying in.”

I don’t mean to be critical here, but it sounds like you didn’t do your own due diligence before you bought. Did all these problem manifest after you moved into the neighborhood? I suggest not; you just chose not to see them before you were vested in the neighborhood. Whe you were buying, did you take the time to drive around and look for unkept yards, nasty looking paint jobs, cars on blocks, and things you find undesireable BEFORE you bought?

Buying a home is a huge decision. You need to make the buy decision with the presumption that you will need to spend the rest of your life there. Drive through the neighborhood at different times of day, drive through on Sunday afternoon and talk to the people walking around or mowing their lawns, drive your commute DURING communting hours. What kind of cars are there, how many? Are there people jogging around, families walking their kids, their dogs, are there children playing? It is astonishing to me how many people buy without a second thought to these things, and just get sucked in by the pergraniteel or what have you. All the things that make a home are overlooked in favor of the bling that the realtor draws your attention to.

Caveat emptor, and the hell with the HOA. I would NEVER buy in an HOA neighborhood. Never. In contrast to their intent, I think it shows a complete lack of willingness on the part of individual homeowners to assume responsibility for getting to know one’s own neighborhood and neighbors and air their differences in a civil fashion, but rather pass the responsibility buck to some bullshit board that is made up of insecure people who feel a need to meddle in other peoples lives. Think about, why would YOU want to be on an HOA board? If your neighbor has a car up on blocks in his driveway, why not just walk over there and say, “Hey Joe, that piece of crap you got there is an eyesore. I’ll help you get it to the junk yard, and then we’ll have a beer?” That’s neighborly. Going to the HOA? What do you call that? It certainly isn’t neighborly.

I went on vacation once, for five weeks in the summer. My neighbors picked up my newspaper, watched the house, and I felt assured everything would be ok. Why? Not because of some bullshit HOA I assure you. There is none in the neighborhood I live. It is because I took the time to say hello to them every once in a while, help them when they needed it, hired their daughter to babysit even though it was her first job ever and she sucked at it, and because I was generally just NEIGHBORLY, that’s why.

Screw HOA’s. Especially now, with all these flippers who have zero intersest in being neighborly but will just be trying to blame YOU for their own stupidity as the price of their “investment” plummets.

Sorry, but I bought a HOME, not an investment, and not some piece of art or something that if there’s a brown spot on the lawn I get a fine for. My daughter rolls down the hill in the front yard laughing just as loud over the brown spot as she whould if it were green. I try to keep it nice for her, not the HOA.

My whole neighborhood throws a party on KY Derby day. Everybody pitches in and brings something to eat or drink. Everybody chips some money and pulls a horse pulled from a hat, and if you win, guess what, you get to use the bounty to host next year. It’s been going on for over 25 years; the people change, but the intent never does. That is my idea of a HOA.

Rant over.

RIC

Comment by Upstater
2006-07-30 06:53:41

“I bought a HOME, not an investment, and not some piece of art”

Wow! I really enjoyed that post and would love to have my children live in that neighborhood. It sounds like the place of my dreams!

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2006-07-30 05:40:10

Ric, that’s a great rant and the beauty of it is that it points out the desperate need for personal responsibility and for people to work together. If anything good will come out of this bubble, it might be that people will learn this lesson.

 
Comment by joe
2006-07-30 06:25:36

geez! this is a tough crowd. i just want to respond to a couple things that were said. as fas as appreciation in frisco goes, i guess i really don’t care and have not thought about it a lot since we plan on staying here as long as our kids live in the house. the school system is fantastic in frisco and i believe that will continue to draw people to the area. i am okay with 1-3%/year because historically that is what you can expect from a home. i save money for retirement and don’t need to bank on my home appreciating.

as far as business in the area. what are you smoking? frito lay, jcpenney, mcafee, ericson, eds, countrywide, mary kay, compusa, dr pepper/ 7-up, beauty control, to name a few. all of which are less that 15 miles from north frisco. so i don’t buy that argument at all.

i still like hoas. of course we drove through the neighborhood in phx before buying in. there are a lot of nice neighborhoods without hoas and if we wanted to stretch to the point of divorce, we could have moved into one. it didn’t matter because that is all we could afford in that area (we live well within or means, always have and always will) the only neighborhoods i see that look good and do not have hoa are the 700&+ neighborhoods in dallas (that would probably be 1.5MM in california) an example is my neighbor 3 doors down that thought he was in the used car business and kept buying cars and selling them. well all these cars were parked in fron of his house and in his driveway. the hoa made him get rid of them (thank God) without the hoa i probably would have either had to live with it or go to blows with the guy.

 
Comment by joe
2006-07-30 06:29:34

“Hey Joe, that piece of crap you got there is an eyesore. I’ll help you get it to the junk yard, and then we’ll have a beer?” That’s neighborly. Going to the HOA? What do you call that? It certainly isn’t neighborly.”

dude, you are living in dream world.

 
Comment by joe
2006-07-30 06:33:28

that came off as a smart a@@ remark. i think that is great and wish we lived in a place like that. i think you live in the exception to the rule. we have very nice neighbors, but nice does not equal taking care of your yard and house. i have met a lot of nice people that live in a crap hole.

 
Comment by homoaner
2006-07-30 15:32:58

“an example is my neighbor 3 doors down that thought he was in the used car business and kept buying cars and selling them. well all these cars were parked in fron of his house and in his driveway. the hoa made him get rid of them (thank God) without the hoa i probably would have either had to live with it or go to blows with the guy.”

Gosh, all I had to do was call my city. They sent out an inspector and boom - mission accomplished. Who needs a HOA - especially when curbstoning (selling multiple vehicles without a dealership license and retail location) is against the law anyway?

I have a coworker who moved into a new development with a HOA. The streets were built so narrow, no one could park on them because it blocked traffic. If you had company over whose cars couldn’t all fit in your driveway, TFB. The final straw for him, though, was finding out during his first winter there that the HOA would only have the streets plowed after snowfalls of _more_ than four inches. This is Minnesota. After a winter of struggling through near-impassible streets, he sold the following spring and bought a single-level 50s-era rambler in Minneapolis. The services are much better, it’s much, much cheaper, and he’s a lot happier.

 
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