July 30, 2006

‘It’s Time To Go Back To The Basics’: DC Area

The Washington Post has this report on tactics for selling in a down market. “If for-sale signs have sprouted like weeds in your neighborhood and the grass is growing up around them, it’s no time to panic, say real estate experts. It’s time to go back to the basics.”

“Some sellers also are dangling offers of vacations and cars. Others are turning to auctions, normally associated with foreclosures and fire sales. Some are just praying.”

“‘You have to look at what the contract prices have been recently, not at what the high-water mark was in 2005,’ said Linda Braley, an appraiser in McLean. ‘Those prices are gone.’”

“Even those who had their houses appraised for refinancing in the past year should look again before listing, Braley said. ‘In a market where not much is changing, you might have a shelf life of about six months on an appraisal. But in the current situation, it’s very difficult to keep up with prices.’”

“If a property sits two weeks with no interest, not even an agent dropping by, ‘it’s time to lower the price,’ said Margaret Ireland, chairman of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. The amount of the reduction depends on the price range. ‘If it’s in the $700,000-to-$800,000 range, you need a good $25,000 reduction,’ Ireland said. ‘For a house in the $1 million to $1.3 million range, it might take $100,000.’”

“Even a low price isn’t necessarily going to do the trick, said Candy Clanton, an agent in Fairfax. She says buyers are bargain-hunting. ‘My clients have reduced their prices 50, 60 and 70 thousand in some cases, but they’re just not seeing any traffic right now,’ she said.”

“If cutting the price doesn’t help, perhaps offering to give some of that money back to the buyer will work. Financial incentives come in many forms. There’s help with closing costs. Seller contributions can also be used to ‘buy down’ or reduce lenders’ interest rates, or to pay bonuses to agents.”

“Some sellers are going for the exotic in hopes of standing out. Vici Boguess in Old Town Alexandria has one set of sellers trying to tempt buyers with a week’s vacation on Kiawah Island near Charleston, S.C. The townhouse near the King Street Metro station has been on the market since January, dropping in price from $575,000 to $542,000.”

“The vacation ‘probably won’t sell the house, but the owners thought that it might make an agent take an interest in it, enough to bring a client to see it,’ Boguess said.”

“Owners of a million-dollar house in Alexandria offered a free Mini Cooper as a bonus, ‘but it didn’t work, and they sold the car when they had to move,’ said Dave Hawkins, broker in Alexandria. The house is still on the market, but the owners may rent it if it doesn’t sell soon.”

“Though many agents say auctions are stigmatized by their association with foreclosures..Homeland Auctions President Gloria Gardner said she ‘can’t keep up with all the calls these days.’ ‘We’re doing for real estate exactly what a Fourth of July sale does for retail.’”




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81 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-07-30 12:17:25

‘In a market where not much is changing, you might have a shelf life of about six months on an appraisal. But in the current situation, it’s very difficult to keep up with prices…The amount of the reduction depends on the price range. ‘If it’s in the $700,000-to-$800,000 range, you need a good $25,000 reduction,’ Ireland said. ‘For a house in the $1 million to $1.3 million range, it might take $100,000.’

In this ‘current situation,’ exactly how long are these stepped down prices going to last? If I pay $900k for the home listed at $1 million, and want to sell in a couple of years, should I then price it at $825?

Comment by arizonadude
2006-07-30 13:00:40

I wonder how many people quit their jobs and have been living off of home equity for the last few years? When the free money runs out there might be a lot of people flooding the workforce.

Comment by Mo Money
2006-07-30 13:32:54

Please don’t come to San Jose, we’re full up !

 
Comment by Virginian
2006-07-30 15:21:15

Quite a few. Many people cashed their 401K accounts, and other retirement plans to gamble on real eastate market. These people dont have any retirement plan, and they will lose their homes too.

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-07-30 20:18:50

now there’s a scary thought

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Comment by Virginian
2006-07-31 21:39:38

yes, it is true. My friend works for the same company aoubt 15years. He does not make much money cca 35-40K per year. He cashed his 401K and bought house, flipped bought two and added his mom retiree nest for the upgrade. What I know, he cannot sell either of them this year, has was late with taxes, and uses his mom pension to pay the basic bill. And he thinks that he is real estate expert.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Greg
2006-07-30 13:25:16

Sorry for the interruption, but this just came in about Beazer homes in Las Vegas. They are getting desperate- offering 15% co-op!!! My wife (a former Vegas realtor) remarked this morning that she never received MLS listed advertisements in her email on the weekend but ever since around February the number of emails have trickled higher. Today so far she has received about 60. We get a tremendous amount of enjoyment reading these adds (especially since we sold out in July, 2005). Here is a stunning add from Beazer:

“Help!! We have 11 houses closing in September that need to be sold just look at our incentive and co-op package, and we are open to all offers so bring your clients in and Remember we’ll do anything to sell you a house! Below are just a few many more available!!!

Located in the South at the gateway to lake Las Vegas 1948, 2500, 3015, 3253 square feet with prices ranging from the $390’s to the $470’s we are offering up to 15% for co-op, closing or whatever you want using Beazer Mortgage, on ALL INVENTORY, check below for Example.”

Lot # 4052 $505,525 3015 sq. ft Available September 2006 Nice Large Lot $20,000 Off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4063 $467,725 3015 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 Off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4062 $485,675 3253 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 Off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4055 $474,650 3015 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4104 $418,325 1948 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4106 $430,000 2500 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4050 $490,675 3253 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 off of Design Center Options or ?

Lot # 4058 $419,500 1948 sq. ft Available September 2006 $20,000 off of Design Center Options or ?

We are in our 1st Release they won’t last long. So call us at

 
 
Comment by NOVA fence sitter
2006-07-30 12:20:07

What are other folks seeing in the DC metro area? I’ve seen inventory flatten through July but it seems to be building again. I’ve also noticed rents ticking up - $1500 per month townhouses are now ticking upt to %1650 - approx. 10% increase. This is antidotal but I think it may be representative.

Comment by pismobear
2006-07-30 12:25:19

If rents go UP it will help make Bernanke’s decision to raise interest in August easier. Will increase the BLS inflation figures. Good for Bloggers bad for lurkers.

Comment by Sol Veritas
2006-07-30 22:48:24

Hey, not fair!

 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-07-30 12:37:33

Inventory may flatten out, but the type of buyer may change.

As knowledge of the slowdown hits mainstream, less serious buyers will consider trying to sell a waste of time and pull out their listings; yet more motivated sellers, that would rather not sound-but have to, will put their properties on the market.

 
Comment by DC_Too
2006-07-30 13:58:19

Fence sitter - Dunno what’s going on in your neighborhood, but my lease just expired - re-upped with no increase whatever. There’s plenty of rentals available in my hood and A LOT of houses for sale. I’m noticing the ones that go on the market at relatively low prices sell fast.

Went to an open house on South Carolina Avenue last Sunday - Capitol Hill - 2 bd fp deep front and back yards and a garage. Ask was 600K. It sold. There are two other houses in that block for sale at 650 and 850 - both have been on the market since late last fall. Go figure.

 
Comment by ric
2006-07-30 14:03:28

It’s different here…. lol Vienna, VA voted 4th best place to live in the US in 2005! (this is continually screamed by the realtwhores)

How different is this…

From ziprealty, MLSFX5524343

Bought Oct 2005 for 575K, and totally gutted and rehabbed….
171 days on market, so far.

I may need to move up there and I actually kind of like the house; for 400K I’ll buy it. FU Flipper Dude!

Description
Price reduced!Must sell!Home completely renovated in 06! Everything is new. Stnlss appl.,cer. Tile floors,gleaming hdwd's,new w&d,fin.Basement,3rd full ba added,new elec. Wiring,landscaped,huge refinished deck,exterior painted,great location to rt.66,rt.7, 495 and tyson's.No hoa’s. Owner re licensee! See loads of great buyer incentives package in brochure at the house. Open every sunday 1-4pm
ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 03/03/06 — $819,900 to $799,900
Price Reduced: 05/13/06 — $769,900 to $749,900
Price Reduced: 06/30/06 — $749,900 to $729,900
Price Reduced: 07/20/06 — $729,900 to $699,900

 
Comment by troubleinDC
2006-07-30 14:29:05

Best I can tell is that (in the inner Maryland suburbs of DC) rentals at apartment complexes are up to say $1200 for something moderately decent but not great. Low-end townhouses start at $1500. Small 1000sqft SFHs start at $1500 with $1800 being more typical in better neighborhoods. The only way to do better than that (price-wise)is to go into areas like Brentwood. From my perspective, these are price increases from 2 years ago when I started renting the small SFH that I’m currently in for $1200 (in an OK but less desirable neighborhood). I’ll need to move soon and in all likelihood I figure that I will pay $300 or more per month to rent a comparable type of SFH space (if I can find it) or take less space (or “quality”) for the same amount of $$$. Yes … I see rents ticking up in DC metro.

Comment by will
2006-07-30 15:30:43

Rents would need to at least double to make buying make sense and then noone could afford to rent or buy.

Comment by rcaglass
2006-07-30 16:02:51

rents can only go so high, because EVERYONE IS PRICED OUT. now that people need to be saved from the reality of housing, getting over on rentals wont work. it is based on what you make and what you can afford to pay back. tell me if this idea wont make you think. dc is a low lying area and kinda close to the ocean, at lest the bay and potomac river. what if a cat 2 or 3 hurricane come straight up the east coast and slam into maryland-virginia area. if course it wont happen, but hurricanes survive all the way to nova scotia. nyc is considered a prime target of a major hurricane. hurricanes can be wind events. how many houses in the dc area can survive a 100 mph wind for lets say 4 hours.

can we say PROBLEMS!

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Comment by Bruce Dickinson
2006-07-30 17:21:14

I refused a rental increase demand in McLean and got my way. I have seen a private for rent sign up for months and months, and realtor signs languish for months. If it’s “priced right” then it will rent.

A friend is looking to rent in Centerville and is finding small TH options in the $1300 range (for sale at $350k). I looked at the MLS for sale numbers in Centerville and it was something like 800 for two zip codes.

Comment by Neil
2006-07-30 20:05:10

I put in notice at my place and instead of making me move out at the end of the lease, I’m being allowed to stay on, same rent, as long as I’m willing to give a month’s notice. Note: I’ve been a good renter for 18 months… but I cannot help but notice parking is easier than before.

Hmmm…. Not the rents” will go through the roof” market we’ve been told about…

Do you think that giant build up in housing might have had something to do with it? Naaaa…

Neil

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Comment by troubleinDC
2006-07-31 18:21:27

Goes the other way too. I’ve been a good renter also — 28 months and 28 checks in the mail before the 1st of the month. Now with the realization that it is time to sell the landlord thinks he “sees” a pay-day (or a sucker) — “Hey I gotta sell — surely you want to buy it” (i.e., since I always pay on time he thinks he sees a good mark). I try to reason with him. I say “the house is OK and it is a nice rental but not the sort of thing that I want to take a long-term position on”. I don’t want to insult him. I don’t tell him that I’m not going long on anything (RE) right now. If he wants a vacant house with a for-sale sign on the lawn that is his choice. Some are going to go that route. Some might get a sale but I suspect many will go back to rental after say 6 months. Nevertheless … I still gotta move (in this game of musical chairs). I sense competition for good rentals of SFHs and THs. They are out there but not a high % of the ads or craig’s list listings as I see it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-30 14:49:06

Exurbs, I don’t think, are raising rents. Too much inventory for that, from unsold vacant houses.

Rental inventory on the MLS:

5/8/05

Prince William ——- 383
Fairfax ———— 1,134
Loudoun ————– 318

7/29/06

Prince William ——- 767
Fairfax ————- 1,433
Loudoun ————– 547
Fauquier/Culpeper —– 107

Comment by DC_Too
2006-07-30 16:24:30

Arwen - I’m very suspicious of “MLS rental inventory.” I am assuming it is representative of only those properties for rent that involve a realtor - it is the MLS, after all. “For rent by owner” is far more common (and easier) than FSBO, not to mention professional rental management companies do not use realtwhores to find tenants - they do it themselves.

Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-30 18:14:11

I’m not sure how to quantify rental inventory except by counting what’s available on the MLS. Our local professional rental management companies (e.g. A.R.M.I. and Henley Management) use lock boxes and advertise on the MLS. The current crop of landlords are generally unavailable to show their properties (they’re out of the area) so they rely on the lock box method.

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Comment by Sarah in DC
2006-07-30 18:34:15

Our 1 yr. lease just ran out this year and we’re now month to month. No rent increase at all, despite the fact that new central air’s been put into all the units and the utilities (way up this year) are all included in the rent.

 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2006-07-30 12:32:37

One of the justifications for high prices in D.C. are the amount of lawyers. Well I know a handful of lawyers and they all say lawyers can be the most tight-fisted when it comes to money, unwilling to spend more than is reasonable. Prices in D.C. are still not reasonable.

Prices seem to be the same as in O.C. and yet there are no beaches, no mountains or long stretches of sunny 70 degree weather.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-07-30 14:01:24

Amount of lawyers? What the heck does that have to do with house prices? Average lawyer in DC makes about 125K. Median familly income in the metro area is about 80K, I think. Median house costs about 450K. It’s not lawyers, its a bubble.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-07-30 14:09:02

Whoops. Median income per 2000 census was 57K in the metro area. So split the difference and say 72K. Still a bubble, not a lawyer(s).

 
Comment by Virginian
2006-07-30 15:29:12

I had posted couple days ago a link to http://www.census.com, where it stated that median household income in DC was about 42000. 68% of households in DC makes less then 70000 per year. DC has probably more lawyers than any other city in USA, but still in the sheer size of the Metro area, these numbers are negligeble. Lawyer dont live in McRoach houses, that are all over DC area with almost identical prices between $400K-600K.

Comment by KIA
2006-07-30 18:45:55

Lawyers work in DC. They don’t live there.

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Comment by bluto
2006-07-31 05:54:32

Look at median incomes in Montgomery county, MD and Fairfax county VA. Upper NW excluded, most of the wealthy live out side the District.

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Comment by MD_renter
2006-07-30 12:34:28

Over on the Maryland side, inventory seems high but prices are not moving very much. I’ve seen some reductions, but they all seem to be around 30,000. House original asking price was 625,000 - reduce it 30,000. Townhouse original asking price 325,000 - reduce IT 30,000.

 
Comment by Sobay
2006-07-30 12:49:01

it’s no time to panic, say real estate experts. It’s time to go back to the basics.”

“Blah - Blah - Blah. Some are just praying.”

When your whole economic future and hope is vanishing before your eyes - there is only denial in the beginning. They better start praying.

 
Comment by poordad
2006-07-30 12:49:46

“Some sellers also are dangling offers of vacations and cars. Others are turning to auctions, normally associated with foreclosures and fire sales. Some are just praying.”

Yah, I heard praying is supposed to help.

Comment by Mo Money
2006-07-30 13:31:19

“Prayer, the last refuge of a scoundrel” - Lisa Simpson

 
Comment by ric
2006-07-30 13:52:25

Praying is good. It means they’ve gone from the denial stage to the bargaining stage. Next is anger, then depression, and finally acceptance. It’s good to know where we are in the Kubler Ross progression. Acceptance is when you see the 100K deductions on 300K houses, not when you see the 100K deduction on $1 million houses. That’s still denial.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-07-30 14:12:58

Oh, I think we are on the cusp of anger. Go over to Bubble Meter and look at the comments section.

The article Ben posted here was on Page 1 of the Saturday real estate section - there was an inset story about St. Joseph and the stautues you’re supposed to bury in the yard if you want to sell. The post asked a real estate agent if it worked - “I don’t know,” she said. Remarkable, eh?

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2006-07-30 14:26:33

I want to see the “breaking every window in the house of their realtor” stage. That would be more fun to watch than some dipsh-t bagholder trying to make a deal with the deity to bring another bagholder into his house.

 
 
 
Comment by supernova13
2006-07-30 13:25:46

Inventories here are clearly leveling - particularly closer in. They probably spiked because of all the sellers trying to test the market and cash in at the top. Since the ‘tests’ have mostly failed, additional owners are likely holding off until the market ‘improves.’ I think the inventory level has probably peaked. But, we’re entering August - the dead zone for DC area real estate - and sales will plummet from the low levels we’ve had recently. And, the serious sellers in the bunch still have to sell. This fall has the makings of real price drops - at least 10%.

Comment by John Fontain
2006-07-30 18:39:16

I agree completely with the possibility of 10% price drops in the second half of 2006.

Rewind to 2005 when prices in northern Virginia dropped about 6% from the June peak to December’s low (that was when the masses still thought there was a 0% chance of a bubble even existing). Somehow prices rebounded from 2005 winter lows this past spring.

Fast forward to today, when the masses are starting to realize there might be something to the bubble theory, and I think you’ll see even more significant declines in second half of this year - with no rebound thereafter.

The pressure on sellers is heaviest in outlying areas like Loudoun County. Prices are clearly crumbling in the outer burbs and this will slowly ripple its way inward to DC proper.

 
 
Comment by stcamp
2006-07-30 13:31:30

Well one couple is including a Toyota Corolla if you buy their house. My comma key is broken by the way. I see more houses in my zip with “For Sale” signs for my zip (22031) but half of them are not showing up in ZipReality. There has been 2 sales of townhouses in subdivision in the last 3 months (375-425k) range but the SFH are not moving. The Washington Post is finally running articles on the slowdown in housing sales.

Still a lot of condos breaking ground or close to topping off and some high end “executive housing” finishing up.

No one I have talked to seems worried about it or the economy. Most people talk about gas prices which are high here and commutes which can be long

Comment by Dorothea
2006-07-30 14:04:33

I’m in 22031 too. Quite a few FSBOs just in the last two weeks or so. I know the townhouses you mean, and I suspect the actual sales prices established slightly lower comps, because these were selling for around $420K last summer, and I just saw one go on the market for a $399 ask.

Interesting times…

Comment by stcamp
2006-07-30 17:31:43

Then you are familiarwith Barkley? I checked the last 17 sales near one that was for sale. High was 700k with an average of 650k — now they can’t seem to move at 599k and the prices between same units is wild - 70k+ difference

 
Comment by stcamp
2006-07-30 17:31:44

Then you are familiarwith Barkley? I checked the last 17 sales near one that was for sale. High was 700k with an average of 650k — now they can’t seem to move at 599k and the prices between same units is wild - 70k+ difference

 
 
 
Comment by Vmaxer
2006-07-30 13:32:53

“it’s no time to panic, say real estate experts. It’s time to go back to the basics.”

Basics: 20% down 30yr fixed rate mortgage totaling 25-30% of monthly income, it gets easier to pay over time because of inflation. Build equity over the long term.

What people have been advised to do by realtors and the mortgage industry ,the last few years: Overpay for the property using an I/O ARM that adjusts over time, gets harder to pay and the buyer becomes a glorified renter because of a lack of equity.

 
Comment by xynamax
2006-07-30 13:36:26

It’s back to the basics for realtors as well. They’ll have to do more then put up an open-house sign to sell a house.

I saw tons of open houses today in my town, although they seemed mostly empty. Who wants to house hunt when it’s 100+ degrees outside with high humidity?

-Richie

 
Comment by diceman
2006-07-30 13:38:29

‘If it’s in the $700,000-to-$800,000 range, you need a good $25,000 reduction,’ Ireland said

You call that a discount?

Comment by Mo Money
2006-07-30 13:57:16

You mean a 3-4% discount fails to get your interest ? What are we coming to you bunch of cynics ! :-)

Comment by sm_landlord
2006-07-30 14:19:02

Nope, I’m sure you misplaced the decimal point there Mo.

It should have been 34%

And I’m not even cynical ;-)

Comment by Mo Money
2006-07-30 14:49:35

my math skills are bad but isn’t 0.35 x 700,000 = $238,000 ?

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Comment by Robin
2006-07-30 15:48:36

in silicon valley that is the expectation of a drop we need.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Robin
2006-07-30 13:40:22

“If cutting the price doesn’t help, perhaps offering to give some of that money back to the buyer will work. ”

Lame! Its always reduce your price then we will talk.

Comment by ric
2006-07-30 13:54:34

This is a common realtor trick used to “lower the price” but maintain the commission. Scoundrels. My realtor did it when I bought my house 13 years ago; a lesson I will never forget.

 
 
Comment by xynamax
2006-07-30 13:46:15

I dunno, the idea of comps, cash back, and incentives all looks like price fixing to me.

-Richie

Comment by Robin
2006-07-30 14:07:56

price fixing -
with bogus muliple offer that buyers are told doesnt surprise me.

Comment by Bubbly in the South Bay
2006-07-30 20:35:27

interesting, makes me think about antitrust law and whether Realtors (TM) will soon go the way of the travel agent

 
 
Comment by Northern VA
2006-07-30 17:56:14

Another trick that the builders and mortgage brokers are starting to use is the 3-2-1 buydown or 2-1 buydown. Apparently banks only care that you will be able to make the payments in the first year and qualify you on that. They must figure the loan will be resold to someone else by then? This is one of many factors that is going to create a few more buyers and will slow the price depreciation. Of course this will also prolong the downturn as people with buydowns will have mortgage payments going up and will default a few years down the road as well. Even worse is many builders are using 3-2-1 buydowns on top of 5/1 ARMs or even interest only ARMs. I haven’t seen a lot posted on the buydowns so I’ll bump this up in one of Ben’s suggest a topic posts to get $.02 from some of mortgage brokers that post here.

Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-30 18:21:37

We had a 3-2-1 buydown in 1994 on an FHA loan on a 3/2 townhouse in Reston. It was “only” 3X our salary and the risks weren’t as great then.

 
 
 
Comment by Vmaxer
2006-07-30 14:14:03

“If cutting the price doesn’t help, perhaps offering to give some of that money back to the buyer will work. ”

Giving money back to the buyer is just another form of cash out refinancing. The buyer still has to pay that money back to the bank. It’s for suckers.

 
Comment by John in VA
2006-07-30 14:33:00

“Even a low price isn’t necessarily going to do the trick, said Candy Clanton, an agent in Fairfax. She says buyers are bargain-hunting. ‘My clients have reduced their prices 50, 60 and 70 thousand in some cases, but they’re just not seeing any traffic right now,’ she said.”

That’s because the house is still priced $300,000 more than it sold for in 2002. Lowering the price does do the trick, you just have to lower it enough. I learned this the hard way years ago.

 
Comment by Matilde
2006-07-30 14:48:47

DC here. The market seems dead in the water. Lots of inventory, much of which has been sitting on the market since spring. Not many new listings - at least by my study of ziprealty. Some price reductions but not enough to temp buyers - I suspect most recent buyers are planning to hang on rather than write a check at the table if they can.

Lots of new construction coming online. Condo ads everywhere. Big fat ‘Condo Living’ section of the usually thin Post Express, 80% advertising space/20% copy.

Regarding the rise in rents, I haven’t seen any data suggesting that vacany rates are tightening very much, only a little. I suspect what’s really driving rents slightly up is energy costs. Most rent includes gas heat and hot water and that’s gotten a lot more expensive lately.

Then again, my rent has gone up 4% in 3 years, hardly keeping up with inflation.

 
Comment by Bruce Dickinson
2006-07-30 17:28:23

I love the dump in Ballston for 700k where the owner was too cheap or poor to acquire a vacuum cleaner! That’s a lot of money for a tiny plot of a teardown?

 
Comment by baculite
2006-07-30 17:29:58

Report from College Park, Maryland: The house around the corner started at 525K. After multiple reductions and a new listing after 6 months it is back on the market at $425K. This is a stones throw away from a metro station and has a garage, but still about 125K too much

Comment by jim A
2006-07-31 04:02:23

College Park Station or the Greenbelt Station? Just curious, I live in Hollywood.

Comment by baculite
2006-07-31 06:31:20

College Park metro, it is on Calvert street.

 
 
Comment by sc3
2006-07-31 06:32:43

My parents sold their home for $130k back in 1998. 3bd/2.5. Couple blocks from Metro. No garage. It was decent blue neighborhood back then (80’s). Horrible school though.

 
 
Comment by stcamp
2006-07-30 17:37:16

My wife just told me that construction has stopped on the six 4 million dollar each houses going in behind her Dads property (Clifton). Fake stone (concrete look alike facades) and all. He can’t believe they would just stop and not finish them. I think financing from the bank for the builder - he may have run into a problem.

Comment by jim A
2006-07-31 04:07:09

Actually, if it’s well done, I think that those textured concrete walls look more like real masonry that those ugly facings where they’ve basicly glued flagstones to the outside.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-07-30 17:55:35

DC will take the lightest hit as every private sector worker contributes to the parasite class- only cam off 12-14% in 1990-95

Comment by baculite
2006-07-31 00:28:46

Fortunately, much of the growth in DC has been in contract
employees. From what I have seen, most of them have
not saved for that rainy day, but have presumed they will
be making 100K++ forever being “security experts”. If the
fortunes of contract companies change, so will much of the
real estate market. They don’t call them the “beltway bandits”
for no good reason.

 
Comment by NOVAwatcher
2006-07-31 05:28:49

Actually, it was flat here during that period (http://tinyurl.com/mld22). On the other hand, the late 80’s run-up wasn’t as nearly as large as other places, such as Boston (http://tinyurl.com/hhdr3) or New York (http://tinyurl.com/ekmc9) that took a beating during the 90’s.

 
 
Comment by michael
2006-07-30 17:55:38

“Owners of a million-dollar house in Alexandria offered a free Mini Cooper as a bonus, ‘but it didn’t work, and they sold the car when they had to move,’ said Dave Hawkins, broker in Alexandria. The house is still on the market, but the owners may rent it if it doesn’t sell soon.”

I think that anyone that buys a million dollar home has to have a pretty good-sized ego. Would such a person want a Mini-Cooper? Maybe a Hummer but not some car that gets decent gas mileage.

 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-30 18:17:26

An NV development has lots for sale in Culpeper, VA. There was a smaller builder in there who is obviously not willing or able to build on them, and NV didn’t acquire them. I’ve noticed land prices coming down steadily in the outlying areas.

Comment by Virginian
2006-07-31 21:28:15

I noticed as well. Nokesville, Gainsville, Manassas has a lot of homes for sale. That area is way too far to commute to DC, and I dont like to get stuck behind farm vehicle like it happened to me a few weekends ago. Seems that prices are falling from outer subs of DC metro, and I wonder how long it will take to get this motion inside beltway. I see far more homes for sale, but not many price reductions.

 
 
Comment by CharlesM
2006-07-30 21:01:10

‘If it’s in the $700,000-to-$800,000 range, you need a good $25,000 reduction,’… “Even a low price isn’t necessarily going to do the trick… My clients have reduced their prices 50, 60 and 70 thousand in some cases, but they’re just not seeing any traffic right now,’ she said.”

“If cutting the price doesn’t help…

I can scarcely contain my disgust.

Last night I was hungry for dinner, so I ate one small bite of bread. That’s all, just one bite. And you know… I was still hungry afterward. I guess eating just doesn’t help!

After that I was tired so I went to bed at 11 PM. I set the alarm for 11:15 PM, and got fifteen minutes of sleep. Strangely it was still dark when I woke up, and then I was still tired all the next day, even after a full fifteen minutes of sleep. I guess sleeping just doesn’t help!

Then I was driving in my car, hurtling towards a giant precipice. I decided I should let a gnat flap its wings in the general direction of my brake pedal, in hopes it might slow down my car. And strangely, it didn’t work and my car tumbled right off the cliff. I guess using the brakes when you’re driving too fast just doesn’t help!

They’ll twirl signs, give you a gas card, bury figurines of St. Joseph, dance a jig, pray to their unholy flipper gods, shake their fists at the sky, wail and gnash their teeth at the unfairness of life, and yet somehow, amazingly, even for people I already consider to be idiots yet am only now beginning to realize the jaw-dropping depths of their denial and stupidity, these people manage to overlook the screamingly obvious:

LOWER THE G0D-D@MNED PRICE.

LOWER IT A LOT.

THEN LOWER IT A LOT MORE. WE’RE TALKING 20-40% HERE PEOPLE. BE SERIOUS.

Why is this so hard for people to understand?

Comment by Sol Veritas
2006-07-30 23:02:36

>Why is this so hard for people to understand?

The answer is buried in three words from your fifth paragraph:
1) idiots
2) denial
3) stupidity

 
Comment by John Fontain
2006-07-31 03:17:24

Bravo!! Excellent points! I can’t help but laugh when a listing says “drastic price reduction” and they’ve lowered the price 1% or less. It’s a joke. Until sellers get serious and start knocking healthy percentages off their asking price week after week, they are going to see their properties languish unsold.

If sellers are serious about selling before the market really slows this fall, they had better take a quick 5-10% off their current asking prices right now. That will still give them time to cut another 5-10% before fall. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll find a greater fool that way.

 
Comment by ken best
2006-07-31 10:23:44

Some or many sellers just can’t lower the price. They already
HELOCed and spent all the money, no equity left.

 
 
Comment by Bruce Dickinson
2006-07-31 02:45:51

Some comments:

A house in my neighborhood was flipped last fall. Purchased in Feb 2005 for 720k and for sale in October for 830k or something like that. I used to chuckle at the anxious looking agent that would pace the lawn when noone showed up at empty houses.

Then it went under contract in December to my surprise. However, the property is still listed under the same owner. Is this a Relator (R) ploy to try make people interested by putting an under contract sign up? It was one of the biggest firms around here Long and Foster. But the agent and owner were of the same ethnic background — let us just say a region where “bazaar tactics” might be a bit different.

Or maybe the deal just fell through and they decided to give up? It never relisted in the Spring as one may suspect.

I looked at real MLS data from the 1990s and “subsidies” of up to 10% of sales for price for sub 100k condos were common. Now these condos peak close to 400k in summer 2005……

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-07-31 04:22:14

“Some sellers are going for the exotic in hopes of standing out. Vici Boguess in Old Town Alexandria has one set of sellers trying to tempt buyers with a week’s vacation on Kiawah Island near Charleston, S.C. The townhouse near the King Street Metro station has been on the market since January, dropping in price from $575,000 to $542,000.”

Do these idiot sellers and their agents think buyers in the half-million dollar range are so unsophisticated that they’re going to fall for such transparent gimmicks?

LOWER THE PRICE or it sits on the market, fools!

 
Comment by MeShell
2006-07-31 05:07:13

Wasn’t it just a year or so ago when the Post had an article about *buyers* trying to tempt sellers to accept their contracts by throwing in free vacations, etc. Unbelievable.

*Nothing* happens in DC in August. Never has, never will.

 
Comment by stcamp
2006-07-31 05:29:03

The Army has frozen all civilian hiring and unneccesary travel. The war is killing their budget. I would think the rest of the military will not be far behind. For the DC area this is not good news especially for contract workers.

 
Comment by ChrisO
2006-07-31 09:59:58

Report from Arlington here. According to county figures, in my neighborhood (Addison Heights), 27 houses sold in the first six months of last year, as opposed to 18 in the first six of this year. Prices seem roughly comparable, though it’s difficult to make a statistical analysis based on such small numbers, especially considering that my neighborhood runs the gamut from little cottages that were built as summer homes for DCers in the ’10s and ’20s all the way to very nice, big semi-mansions near the top of Arlington Ridge. But at the very least prices seem to have settled and maybe started to fall a bit just in the last couple of months.

And from walking the neighborhood I know for a fact that the last several homes near me that sold were discounted between $20-40k off the asking price. And this in a neighborhood that, due to location, is one of the ‘hotter’ ones in the DC area. At the height of the frenzy, buyers were gobbling up the land and doing teardowns–which got rid of a whole bunch of neat little houses and put up ghastly oversized monstrosities in their places. Basically trying to shoehorn big houses onto small lots.

 
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