‘We Were Invaded By Investors’: Florida
The News Press has this from Florida. “For the first time in 16 years, Susan Bellina, a prominent Bonita Beach Realtor, doesn’t have a closing in sight. Up and down Hickory Boulevard, houses are for sale. Lots of them. ‘I’ve been with Susie for six years and this is the most I’ve seen in any area,’ said Christi Bacon, real estate assistant.”
“On both sides of this tony two-mile stretch of road, some 26 homes are up for sale. Bacon said a drastic change has taken place. ‘Two years ago we couldn’t keep a property up for sale longer than a week,’ Bacon said. ‘This is the first time in 16 years where she (Bellina) doesn’t have a closing lined up.’”
“According to Wes Brodersen, president of the Bonita Springs Board of Realtors, there is a variety of reasons why so many homes are for sale. ‘We were invaded by investors who raised the prices and then left,’ he said.”
“John Dolan put the bay-side home at 26435 Hickory Blvd. up for sale last year. The four-bedroom, 4-1/2 bathroom house went up for sale last year. Their asking price was $1.8 million.”
“‘We took it off the market for a couple of months and recently put it back up,’ said Dolan, who is now seeking $1.6 million. Dolan said he believes the housing market will get worse before it gets better. ‘My insurance is going to be cancelled in October,’ he said.”
“‘This is happening everywhere. The rising cost of insurance is playing a huge role in this,’ he said. ‘We’re either going to have to downsize our home or maybe even leave the state.’”
The residential real estate market is soft throughout Lee County. For the first time in seven years, the median price of an existing home sold with the help of a Realtor was lower in June than it was a year earlier, $268,000 compared to $281,000 in June 2005.”
“Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale in the county has risen dramatically over the past year to more than 12,000, about three times what it was a year ago.”
From Florida Today. “Condominium sales tumbled 79 percent in Brevard County last month compared with June 2005, the Realtors organization reported. And the median sales price slumped from $229,500 to $185,000.”
“‘I can tell you that the condominium market is over-saturated right now,’ Ken Ward, a director at Towne Realty on Merritt Island, told Melbourne officials recently. ‘A lot of the projects that have been brought before you, most likely you’re going to hear back (from the developers) again, because they’re not going to get built.’”
“‘It’s not like you’re building single-family, one-story homes where you can come out and, after three homes, you can stop,’ Ward said.”
“The Brevard County residential housing market now lists about 7,000 properties, including roughly 2,300 condominiums and 600 townhouses, said Gene Collins, president of the Melbourne Area Association of Realtors. Collins said the market is softening, in part, because quick-turn investors are looking elsewhere.”
“‘The flippers were in there pretty early (in 2004), particularly in the beachside areas. It was a great business, but I think those people are really out of the market now,’ he said.”
“In recent months, local and out-of-county developers have submitted documents to City Hall detailing 10 future housing towers in downtown Melbourne. The towers would contain at least 1,028 condominiums, suites and townhouses.”
Watching the news reagarding Castro..They interviewed many Cuban/Americans, and every one of them said they would go back to Cuba if Fidel died. Total hypothetical at this point ,but wonder what the dynamics of how Miami would change if Cuba became the new place to go….,and 100k Miami Cubans went back home…..
And what is this saying about USA as the place to be?
I’ve been hearing differing points of view on this. I do know that the Coast Guard is on watch, in anticipation of either an exodus or influx. A local Tampa Bay Cuban-American lawyer was interviewed on the local news yesterday and he said that Congress needs to change the law about Cuban refugees being automatically given US Citizenship, and fast. His theory is that if Fidel passes away, there will be a massive influx of Cuban refugees to our shores, as they flee a destabilized government. He made a pronouncement that the Cuban people need to stay in their own country until everything gets sorted out. After listening to him, all I could think of was the glut of condos in Miami, just waiting to be snapped up.
As to the dynamics of Miami, I don’t think it will change. Many older Cuban Americans might go home at first, but they probably won’t stay. The younger Cuban Americans have assimilated very nicely and they will visit, invest, but come back. I have a deep respect for Cuban Americans. They have not been portrayed very nicely in movies like “Scarface”, or on Miami Vice. But they really contributed to the strength, vitality and character of Miami. As a general rule, I find them to be warm, welcoming, hard-working and devoted to family and able to assimilate while retaining the high points of their culture.
After listening to him, all I could think of was the glut of condos in Miami, just waiting to be snapped up.
Would Cuban refugees be able to afford those condos?…
“Would Cuban refugees be able to afford those condos?… ”
That comment I made was slightly tongue in cheek, but I do think lower priced housing in Miami would get a big boost. You’d be surprised at the resources in the Cuban American community. Family and community groups pitch in to get their people jobs, housing, you name it. They don’t come here to be on welfare, that’s for sure. Also an influx of folks from Cuba could do wonders for the education level in Florida and could also ease the shortage of doctors and medical personnel.
The young Cubano Andy Garcia did well playing an Italian in GodFather III. Great acting Andy… Luv that movie and your acting.
I just had a visual of the poster-perfect American family on a homemade raft headed for Havana.
The Gulf Stream goes South to North, you can’t float to Cuba from Florida.
“And what is this saying about USA as the place to be?”
That this is a free country and if you wish, you are able to leave and live elsewhere. Unlike Cuba under Castro.
I’ll move to Cuba, and I’m not Cuban. I expect that many of them would love to return home which would hammer the Miami area.
How about Jamaica, where the locals just “capture” abandoned land and build on it, all you do is throw some seeds on the ground and you’ll have your food going.
I would go to Cuba also! Absolutely beautiful.
bull- they all want to come here fro el frio’ sht
welfare fo all
Castro will still be there. Raul, that is. And he i probably no better than his brother Fidel. After that, who? That’s the question. Until then, sure, we can hope, but I’d not bet any of my money on a change for the better.
From what I am hearing, Raul has substance abuse problems and is not considered to be particulary stable. Some speculate that others are running the show (hmm, sounds familiar) which is why the theory of an influx of Cubans to Florida.
Cuba was once known for its sugar cane crop. In fact, it was the Fanjul family from Cuba that came to Florida and developed “Big Sugar” in the Everglades. Under the right circumstance, Cuba could become a player in the emerging alternative energy markets.
The biggest issue, I believe, and the one that is not getting airtime, is the oil under the sea between here and Cuba. It will be seen as super-priority to cement a deal whereby we nail down drilling rights. I will bet that that issue is what all the big minds in Washington are focused on, and how to get Raul out of the way in order to move ahead. The refugee issue is, in that sense, a straw man.
Wow, Chip, that is spot on, I didn’t even think of that. HOLEEEEEE SHHHHHHHaving cream!! As Greenlander would say, “Whoohoo! Refineries in Florida for everyone!”
bermuda triangle i wouldnt go there
I think it would take many years of hard work and serious money before the average Miamian would find Cuba habitable. Remember that this is a country that has been locked in time for 50 years. Those who have lived in the USA for a while now expect the electricity to be there more than 50% of the time, their phones to work, to get someone to fix the AC within 24 hours, and be able to get parts for their car delivered immediately. Right now all the cars in Cuba are from the ’50’s, the buildings are crumbling, the infrastructure in shambles. Castro didn’t get the memo about Communism being a really BAD idea.
“My insurance is going to be cancelled in October,’ he said.”
Better set fire to it now, then.
“fire sale”
5% drop YOY. OUCH.
Amazing.
If anybody has a doubt any longer about the role of psychology when it comes to financial markets (in this case, RE market), look no further.
Just a few months ago higher prices were heralded as a good thing, thousands of people were moving to FL every day, there would be no end in sight. Higher prices were good as it makes everyone rich. All the people buying were prospective homeowners since there’s a huge shortage of land. blah blah blah.
Now, high prices are bad, it’s pricing homeowners out of their own homes, their homes aren’t insurable, homeowners will be forced to leave the State, and the previously adored speculators are called “invaders” now.
Just spoke with my Ft. Lauderdale friends on the telephone. every previous phone call they’d say “when are you moving here. It’s paradise. everybody wants to live in Ft. Lauderdale. RE only goes up, you should at least buy a retirement place now or you’ll never be able to” (I’m in my mid 30s!)
Last conversation went like this:
“our insurance is so high now. it’s going to double. We might have to get a second job. Maybe Philly wasn’t so bad.”
clouseau
hope they invade me- I’ll sell and be happy
“Condominium sales tumbled 79 percent in Brevard County last month compared with June 2005, the Realtors organization reported.”
This is worse than even the bears predicted.
“This is worse than even the bears predicted.”
Actually, not really. I cashed out there one year ago and reported here, later on, on the market falling off a cliff in late September. My timing was, of course, just very good fortune. The condos in the worst shape are, IMO, the newest ones that were almost 100% infestor-owned (no typo). My wife noted yesterday how few balconies have patio furniture in such buildings.
I analogize a drop of water in a still pool. The rings moving outward are the cities or counties nearby whose prices become increasingly less attractive relative to the declining ones where the “drops” fall.
The thing you have to understand is they are way too f@#king expensive. Not to mention that on the news last night they said a few condo asses. had their insurance go from 140K to 500K. Not only are most of these condos 400K-2.4mil, but they have amenities fees to the sum of 300-1000 dollars a month. NUTZ!!!
19% YOY on the condo. DOUBLE OUCH!!!
“Invaded” by investors?
Come on now! If nobody seemed to mind the investors on the way up, why blame them on the way down?
It’s like inviting the neighborhood drunk to the party, than complaining about the hangover you got from drinking his Boones.
grim
More like “Pillaged” by investors.
I’ll have the “Mad Dog 20/20″
I’ll go one better….how about some “Ripple”.
Would you believe Wikipedia says that it is “fortified wine”? That is hilarious!
BayQT~
Here here! And what about:
“but I think those people (flippers) are really out of the market now”
Okay - so who are the bag holders/sellers of all of this excess inventory? Suddenly thousands upon thousands of people are being relocated out of state?
Exactly! New flippers aren’t coming in but the old ones are shackled there.
I wonder if the suicide rate will increase as the median price of homes decrease. Morbid thought I know.
You thinkin’ maybe we should go long on casket companies?
I can’t speak for Florida, but the the two other categories of hidden demand around here (Bay Area) are:
1. Folks who bought a fixer-upper, are renovating and are going to try to sell once done–a different kind of speculator, but at least they are improving the property.
2. Folks who bought a new house and are fixing up their old one to various degrees prior to sale. These could be anywhere from paint and carpet to new kitchen and bathrooms (better than the first, but still a bit risky).
You would be amazed at the number of homes in the Bay Area that are being renovated, or are currently for sale that have NO furniture in them, and a brand new kitchen.
As people gradually return to the old practice of selling their old house before buying their new one supply will continue to increase. And as people decide that the fixer-upper isn’t such a great idea in a sliding market, even more supply will be coming on-line.
“As people gradually return to the old practice of selling their old house before buying their new one supply will continue to increase.”
Selling the old home before buying the new one. Now THERE’S a concept!
Just wait till an Earthquake happens in SF. Kiss those housing prices bye bye as the banks and insurance companies eat the losses, or better yet, the homeowners who are stuck holding the bag.
Hey Rental Watch…
Have you been checking out the construction in the old rock quarry in Oakland just above 580? A friend (fellow bear)stopped by there over the weekend and this is what he came back with:
Townhouses….1178 - 1753sf, $544k - $650k
“Villas”………..1467- 1969sf, $654,950 & $789,950
I kid you not! The “Villas”….I don’t know what to say (shakin’ head)….fance word for “big townhouse”, as they are all attached, too. I REALLY thought these were gonna be in the neighborhood of $350k or $400k…also ridiculous prices. But, damn! Right AT the freeway.
I’m just speechless.
BayQT~
How about the new luxury townhome develpment in Cupertino that they are advertising on the radio heavily. I forgot the name but I do remember the price: starting in the $900,000s. For a townhome. In Cupertino. Is this the American Dream?
I haven’t checked out the construction in Oakland above 580, but the pricing is a bit surprising for that location.
Not sure I know the one in Cupertino either, but that pricing doesn’t surprise me as much as the pricing in Oakland. Cupertino has very good schools, a highly educated population (higher salaries, generally), and generally not a lot of open space to build on.
If things get dicey when those projects are selling, I’d bet the Oakland project has farther to fall than the Cupertino project.
From my research of the county appraisers offices near Tampa - there appear to be plenty of out of state bagholders, but also many many bagholders with various Florida addresses - which leads me to belive that many locals with extra cash were drinking the kool-aid and running this thing up as well. You can’t blame it all on the locusts.
Extra cash… or extra perceived equity in their primary homes…
I think the latter. Lord knows that very few actually put in hard cash for the downpayment on these properties… The LARGE majority where loans from their preceived gains in their primary home…
buddha, how is your housing hunt going? Seeing any bargains here in the Tampa area?
Palmetto - I enjoy your posts - just don’t hate me for being a locust - my wife’s family is in Palm Harbor & Tarpon Springs, so it’s a natural destination for us (& I may end up telecommuting as its working out so I won’t take someone’s job if I can help it ).
I promise to be the kind of locust that will drive prices DOWN rather than up, as I just closed the sale of my NY co-op and, after sweating it out for a buyer (took the first one who was anywear near my price after 6 months) and being well educated on this blog, desperately want to hold onto as much of my cash as possible!
Anyway, as far as bargains, no real bargains yet, however my searches on Zip Realty show many sellers starting to face reality - huge reductions (to still-too-high prices IMO) and inventory piling on daily at more reasonable starting prices. As I have stated here before, I am looking for a return to $100 sq. ft. pricing - which still hasn’t happened for the most part. Some of the farther out areas in Pasco and Southern Hillsborough are getting there though. Most of the builders (i’ve been following Ryland in particular) are still sticking to their prices, but inventory is building and I have heard that they are offering better deals in person - they probably don’t want to lower the “official” asking price in case some sheople wander in and decide to pay the $175-225 sq. ft. they are looking for. Anyway, I will be down there this weekend and will report back with news from my footwork there.
hey, buddha, I don’t consider you a locust at all, just a wise seller and buyer. Congrats on the sale of your co-op, we had a similar situation with my mother’s co-op in Connecticut. Sweated bullets until it was closed.
Regarding Ryland, I’d be a little cautious about them, only because of reading a recent post on this blog by a former Ryland homeowner. Have you tried throwing out a lowball fishing line on the Craigslist Tampa Bay Real Estate Wanted section? Doesn’t cost a thing and you might reel in a desperate flipper or two.
Thanks for the kind words - and yes, I was sweating bullets indeed - hoping the “news” didn’t spread to my buyers ears before we got the table - anyway, at this point, my wife and daughter are down there already at my sister-in-law’s house and she is driving around looking at areas to get a better lay of the land. We actually like Tarpon a lot because it is close to beaches but mostly not in flood zones. However most of the homes there are older, don’t know how wind worthy they would be - many of the post 90’s homes are on 60 x 100, which is like the lots up here in NYC - my sister in law has an 80’s house but its on 125 x 100 - which seems much more palatable to me.
I have actually been up to Waters Edge and watched Ryland building some homes and it looks as though, as long as you watch them on the shortcuts, they are building pretty strong boxes. Ryland caught a lot of flack for horizontal rain penetration through the stucco during high wind events, but every builder has their “so and so builder sucks.com” website. I think you are ok as long as you have a good inspector check the home out for you. Ryland just makes prettier boxes than most in my opinion. What i am more worried about is buying into a new community that ends up failing to sell out and getting caught with rising community costs among fewer-than-planned owners, which would cause home owner fees to skyocket and/or maintenance to be deferred or not done at all. Could end up like the ghost towns people here are talking about.
As for the hurrincanes - i really wish people would stop wishing them to happen. Yes we need to be mindful of them and prepared for them, but wishing them on the flippers is like throwing the baby out with the bath water. There are a lot of senior citizens and just plain folk who get hurt in these events and I for one would like to see our country sticking together rather than playing the blame game.
I think some of the flippers are the ones wishing for the hurricanes, so they can get out from under. All kidding aside, I hate when hurricanes visit Florida, it is a miserable experience, even if they don’t hit your area. What makes it worse is all the uncertainty where the hurrican will go and the hyperventilating that goes on in the media for days prior to the actual event.
I think you are looking in a good area, Tarpon and Palm Harbor are really nice and have some charming areas. Pinellas County as a whole is a little more stable price wise right now, since it was pretty much built out before the boom. The rental market is a bargain compared to Hillsborough. What you see is pretty much what you get in Pinellas, very few surprises, and that’s a good thing. Only problem with Pinellas is the congestion, but on the plus side, it really can’t get much worse than it already is. It is ideal for telecommuting.
The flippers could not flip by themselves, without the aids of the easy money from Greenspan. Of course the government knew all along, including the liar loans, but chose to look the other way. Where were the prosecutors for loan frauds?
I used to think it was cool to drink Boones Farm Strawberry Hill while smoking Swisher Sweet Cigars. Then I turned twelve.
I did not like investors on the way up. I am tired of construction and overnight neighborhoods. Florida needs to slow down, and think about city infrastructure and the surging crime rate.
McMansion Backlash gaining ground
http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Articlenewhome.aspx?cp-documentid=418653
Does this backlash against Hummer homes and starter castles explain why Toll and other major homebuilders are currently enjoying a stock price upswing? Because in the upside-down world of bubbleland, bad news is good for share prices.
Stucco, you gotta separate trading swings from funnymentals. I know you know this.
txchick…”funnymentals”. I’m lovin’ that. Ben, please add this to our bear glossary.
BayQT~
“‘We were invaded by investors who raised the prices and then left,’ he said.”
The equity locusts of the early 2000s will be remembered as a scourge of biblical proportions.
Oh this is too good (from the Florida Today article):
“Melbourne’s 242-acre redevelopment district, encompassing the historic downtown and blighted U.S. 1 corridor, is thinly populated and surprisingly low-income in nature, a 2005 Strategic Planning Group analysis reveals.
Including the adjacent Tar Heel neighborhood, this downtown zone contains 1,465 residents in 832 households. A sobering 44 percent of households earn less than $15,000 per year — retirees in the Trinity Towers public-housing buildings skew those statistics.
Thirty percent of Melbourne’s downtown households earn between $15,000 and $34,999 per year. Five percent earn $100,000 or more. And 69 percent of total households are renters, not homeowners.
The towers would boost these dismal downtown demographics. Assuming an average of 2.6 people per household, the towers would contain 2,673 affluent residents. That would catapult Melbourne’s meager downtown population skyward 183 percent, to 4,138 people.
“I have mixed feelings about it,” said Amanda Pearson, manager at Sun Shoppe & Café. “I think it’ll be really good for business, and it’ll bring a lot more people down here. But I think it’ll create more traffic.”"
What a bunch of fools! Great market opportunity in downtown Melbourne for million dollar condos! Oh right, I forgot about all the rich boomers.
where are the “afluent” neighbours going to come from and where are they going to go to make their money or is this a plan for afluent retirement home?
There is some manufacturing in the Melbourne area, but there is also a lot of SFR property available. I’d guess that the target market is principally retirees. Trouble is, just now there are practically no buyers of any stripe.
It will be very interesting to see what develops with TS Chris. If it comes anywhere near S. Fl as a hurricane, that could push people over the edge.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/011149.shtml?
Yeah, those falling cranes…
WAY over the edge, BigDaddy. Lot of tense folks in Florida right now, due to a number of factors. A hurricane would be the real coup de grace.
If condo projects are “mopped” up by a hurricane, can the builders write off the damage or entire project for that matter?
a major hurricane in florida??? no way! especially with all those empty vulnerable, shoddily constructed mcshacks just waiting to get blown to smithereens.
might be better than arson!!! in any case it’s 1926 all over again.
I’m having visuals of F’d builders doing rain dances on the beaches of Florida, praying to the weather gods for a good hurricane to put them out of their misery, with bucks in their pocket. Citizen’s Insurance (state run insurer of last resort and only resort for many) tried to cut the builders loose recently, in anticipation of just such an event. But the builders gave Tallahassee its marching orders (powerful lobby and elections are coming up) so they won an extension. Right now, I’m very glad I don’t own even a tiki hut in Florida.
Will the feds raise or pause???? That is the question I am hearing (every day for the last 6 months).
I don’t understand why the stock market is so gripped by this. Thier argument is that if the feds don’t stop raising rates…its going to slow the economy. But if they do stop raising rates, its because the economy is slowing.
To me the logic is flawed….either way your invested in a market that is slowing. There will be a huge ralley if the feds pause…but they will be celebrating a admition that the economy is slowing!
Am I missing something here? It just dosn’t make sence.
“There will be a huge ralley if the feds pause…but they will be celebrating a admition that the economy is slowing!”
That’s okay. There will be a huge rally and the markets will pick up steam again. Hopefully it can delay the recession another year.
My bet is on them pausing. Inflation may turn to deflation in a heartbeat in today’s economy.
Why delay the recession? Let’s get it over with. When I was a kid and I had a whippin’ coming, I didn’t want to put it off until tomorrow. Take off your belt and let’s get to it.
A recession is not a required outcome of this game. It looks like it will happen next year if the fed, in their quest to stem inflation, stops the economy dead at the same time the housing market implodes. Regardless of the general economy, the housing market WILL implode, and if we have a strong economy (not stung by too many rate hikes), the housing slowdown will take care of a large portion of the current inflation. Thus we would escape this with moderate economic growth (2.5-3.5%).
No, a recession is the required outcome of this game if we want to return to a healthy economy. What you should hope to avoid is an all out depression. The Fed should have allowed the recession of early part of this decade to run its course, instead of flooding the market with liquidity. A recession is the only way to mop this mess up.
Yes, no recession needed, but they will use it as an excuse for the real estate crash. I can hear it now, “oh things were great the market was in the new economy and fundamentals were all there, and then we had this dang recession and it all went to pot. WE SHOULD USE THE COMING RECESSION AS A SPRINGBOARD SLOGAN FOR HOUSING DOOM. THE DEVELOPERS ARE USING THERE BULLSHIT SLOGAN THIS A BUYERS MARKET NOW SO BUY. JUST PUTTING WORDS IN PEOPLE MOUTH’S.
“Why delay the recession? Let’s get it over with. When I was a kid and I had a whippin’ coming, I didn’t want to put it off until tomorrow. Take off your belt and let’s get to it. ”
Exactly my thoughts. I think the real stress comes from waiting and speculating about future events. Just let it happen so we can deal and go on from there. Personally, I think things are being jiggered to maintain a status quo until after the November elections.
The futures market is predicting about a 45% chance of a rate hike. It’s all a coin toss right now. We’ll know the answer in a week…
Good discussion on todays Bits Bucket and Craigslist Finds.
Viewpoints could flip-flop after Friday’s key economic reports.
It makes sense. One of Wall Street’s primary objectives is to exploit uncertainty about the future direction of prices. As long as some stock market participants believe prices are headed down, and others believe prices are headed up, there is trading activity and middle-man profits.
Caveat Emptor for Florida. So if all of the Cubans leave, who is going to replace them in the 1000 people are moving here everyday? And they are all flush with cash from selling their overpriced POS from up north? Sounds about on par with the population of Las Vegas going to double in the next 3 years, and they are all millionaires. And I have a bridge to sell crossing between SF and Marin. Any takers?
I’m Cuban-American and I really doubt many will leave regardless of what they say now. They may buy second homes in Cuba though. The problem is their kids, grandkids, homes have been here for four decades. You get accustomed to little things like good grocery stores and centralized air. Especially when you’re 80 years old It will take a few years to get Cuba up to par.
Would you consider a 1031 Exchange for a similar property in New York? I can put you in touch with George Brooklyn….
Are the now gone flippers the bag holders, or are some of the residents got caught up in greed and are now also holding Gary’s bag.
Gary’s -sack-. [Man, I'm in a nasty mood today.]
Horrible visuals on that one.
Can anyone find out what 26435 Hickory Blvd was last purchased for and when?
At the Lee County Recorders office the following sales are listed:
10/1/1992 - 70,000
8/4/2004 - 350,000
And they’re asking $1.6 million (down from $1.8 million)?!?! They can’t sell for maybe $750K (footnote: STILL ridiculously overpriced) and be happy? Once again, pure and simple greed. Losers.
That information he gave is misleading. Those numbers he gave were for a vacant lot. The house completed construction 2005. 350k for the lot, assuming $100 per sqft to build don’t know if that’s high or low for that area but it’s a good avg that’s 540k +/-. They have room but not enough to drop to 750k withought taking a bath.
http://www.leepa.org/Scripts/ParcelSearch.asp?STRAP=&OwnerName=&SiteNumber=26435&SiteStreet=hickory&SiteZIP=&submit1=Start+Search
There’s the info. Should have linked it to begin with.
Where to begin?
“‘We were invaded by investors who raised the prices and then left,’ he said.”
Huh? They left? Who owns the properties now? Real estate people can be idjits.
…seeking $1.6 million… ‘My insurance is going to be cancelled in October,’ he said.”
No, when his current insurer cancels his current policy the mortgage company will impose another policy regardless of cost. Trust me on this one, it’s on page 341 (in tiny print) of those documents you signed. Oh, and it won’t be for replacement value and it won’t be for the borrower. These types of insurance are for the loan amount and go direct to the lender.
All this talk will surely inspire a new movie called “Invasion of the Equity Snappers”, or should that be Snatchers?
Already been done. “Treasure of the Sierra Madre” with that famous line:
“Equity? EQUITY? You don’ got no stinkin’ equity!”
Remember the plot line about friends and everyone getting rich and it all going to hell.
So appropriate…need Bogie in this role!
‘South Florida’s Broward County residential real estate sales fell 25 percent in July as record inventory cut into single-family home prices, according to statistics provided by the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Lauderdale.’
‘Single-family homes sales totaled 778 in July, down from 1,038 a year ago. The total number of single family and condominium-townhouse residences on the market in July rose to 23,589, up 3.4 percent from 22,821 in June and up nearly 344 percent from 6,033 in July 2005.’
‘July’s single-family median price of $375,000 was down $5,000 from June and reflected a 3 percent drop from $384,900 one year ago, the association reported. For condominium-townhouse units, the median price of $211,000 was down 1 percent from $212,500 in June but up from the year-ago price of $200,000.’
Ben,
Dade county is not fairing any better.The latest 8/1 numbers are:
37,475 units for sale, up 4..7% in one month and up from 12,361 a year ago or 300%. Median Price is $385,000 down 1% in one month and 9% in 1 year from $425,000.
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Florida/Miami/
Reading about local real estate markets whipsawed by the arrival and departure of hot money, I couldn’t help but think of third world countries with their currency crises in the 1990s.
I think we need an IMF plan.
I think you’ve got the carriage before the horse.
“‘We took it off the market for a couple of months and recently put it back up,’ said Dolan, who is now seeking $1.6 million. Dolan said he believes the housing market will get worse before it gets better. ‘My insurance is going to be cancelled in October,’ he said.”
October… guess the buyers can sit this out and watch as each seller starts to breakdown….
Time is on our (buyers) side ! Not the sellers.
He bought the house for 350k exactly 2 years ago. The guy is just greedy as hell.
Not true, the lot was bought for 350k he built the house on it. He completed construction 105 on a 5k+ sqft house.
there is a good dimartino article today.
From a psychological standpoint, the real thousand pound gorilla in the room for Florida is the yearly phenomenon known as “The Season”, that period from roughly Thanksgiving to Easter when the “snowbirds” arrive with their disposable cash. In anticipation of the Season, people who own rental property ratchet up the rates, the MOUSE (Disney) roars and realtors and sellers put their best foot forward, hoping to unload property on winter weary Northerners. If the Season sucks as a result of soaring oil prices, milder winters up North and tapped out FBs, etc., I think that’s when you’ll start to see some genuine downward price pressure in Florida. Although Florida has become more of a year-round residential market over the years, it still depends a lot on disposable income from seasonal visitors. If that disposable income dries up, so will the season and property sales will be even more abysmal.
Um… Weren’t we speaking about this same “selling season” back in October 2005? I believe so. From the date presented, that selling season decelerated in the 05/06 period, and will likely come to a full stop in 06/07.
“Um… Weren’t we speaking about this same “selling season” back in October 2005?”
In Florida it is called “Snowbird Season”, or tourist season. That’s what they mean by “The Season” here. All the businesses that cater directly or indirectly to tourists (hotels, tourist attractions, t-shirt vendors, souvenir hawkers, antique malls, flea markets, boat charters, etc.) make most of their money from Thanksgiving to Easter. Real estate in Florida gets a bit of a dead cat bounce from visitors during that time.
Maybe I should hold off buying until spring, even if I find my bargain, just to help keep the dead cat from bouncing!
I wouldn’t mind buying back in when the price is right and that price is not here, yet. If current insurance conditions remain as they are, with no relief, the right price is about 20% below 1999-2000 levels.
this will change this year when the new insurance rates come in. the snowbirds have property here and alot of property was damaged from wilma. a month ago the miami paper had a vacancy rate of 9% in retirement areas ( a record vacancy rate).
the snowbirds cant move their property in the northeast. if they lose money in the northeast, it wont come to florida, but to georgia, carolinas and tennessee where cheaper homes, lower ins. and taxes and less weather concerns are.
You forget why a lot of people move to florida. Lower income tax rates. That is a bigger reason than the weather.
“Condominium sales tumbled 79 percent in Brevard County last month compared with June 2005, the Realtors organization reported. And the median sales price slumped from $229,500 to $185,000.”
“‘I can tell you that the condominium market is over-saturated right now,….
Ugh (with emphasis!). Can I just say that I do not feel sorry for these folks or any similarly over-saturated area. Let me repeat that, slowly…I - do - not - feel - sorry - for - them. And I’m especially infuriated by the irresponsible manner in which the city planners have allowed this to happen. Aren’t they the ones who ultimately say yea or nay on permits for such building out? Granted, there is a lot of mortgage fraud going on and we are all up in the air with regards to the RE “professionals” (and rightfully so), but there are a lot more people who are culpable in this whole thing. SOMEBODY had to say “yes” to the builders/developers, and SOMEBODY kept say yes, yes, and yes yet again for EVERY project that has fallen, cancelled, remained empty, etc.
If someone has any additional info to add to this or can enlighten me otherwise (as I do not know all that city planners do), please jump in. I have had experience (in the late 70’s) with remodeling, permit acquisition, the waiting and waiting for approvals to remodel, so that is the extent of my direct knowledge.
I just haven’t seen much said here about this arm of development in the scheme of things. Comments, please.
BayQT~
Sfbayqt, I’m afraid you are preaching to the choir here. Ultimately it is the local county and city commissioners who said yes to these projects and they are culpable. It would be easy to say they were just greedy for tax revenue, that the builders’ lobby is powerful and they want campaign contributions, etc. While that is true, I know from attending commission meetings that in many cases the hands of local politicians were tied by antiquated laws and zonings on the books that were written never anticipating the sudden explosion that took place.
I have seen citizens and neighborhood groups backed by sympathetic county planners pleading on their knees with commissioners to do something about borrow pits, increased flooding in established neighborhoods due to new developments, wells polluted by construction runoff, congestion, etc. And I have seen these groups of folks get shot down by the attorneys for the contractors, who pound the podiums in front of the commissioners threatening lawsuits if they don’t get their way. Sadly, many of these contractors are legally if not morally in the right. And the commissioners have to cow down. I guess they figure better to have the tax revenue coming in than legal fees going out. Since no one anticipated the sudden volume of building, no one ever bothered to go back and update the old laws and ordinances. I suspect that will happen when things settle out, but it will be like closing the barn door after the cow has gotten out.
Oh, yes…I know I’m preaching to the choir. Indeed. I just had a “moment” and needed to vent.
Thanks so much for your reply.
I have no doubt that groups of local citizens challenge the city planners at the meetings, but it is such a shame that it is for naught in the end. And I know you are not talking about the NIMBYs…they have their own agendas, but citizens who see what we see and are trying their best to do something about it.
As you said, though, although the barn door is already open, hopefully some laws will get changed because of this current fiasco.
Thanks, again, palmetto.
BayQT~
Bay, I really hope some good comes out of it. I’m just glad there are people like you who feel as I do, so I completely understand the rant, as I have made such a rant or two myself. I think much of Florida has shot itself in the foot in this bubble, destroying most of the reasons to settle here in the first place. I wish the local governments were as good at attracting high wage jobs as they are at puckering up for builders. The latest idiocy you hear from the local pols and economic development is how the I-4 corridor is going to attract a ton of high-tech jobs. AS IF! Just more California wanna-be talk. Meanwhile, they just go ahead and permit the destruction of the beaches and natural areas, which are the real reason anyone wants to come here in the first place. People can’t last long at the Gulf Beaches anymore due to respiratory ailments brought on by red tide, not to mention that last year, all the fish died off, so tourists and sportsfisherman were cancelling in droves. Wait’ll the oil spills start slopping up on the Gulf beaches from increased and closer offshore drilling. The only pleasure I’ll get out of that is schadenfreude at the dismay of the out of state idiots who bought overpriced beachfront property and ran off the locals.
palmetto-
Well said and thank you. I hope many residents read your words and realize that this is really happening, and faster than ever.
City planning in Florida is like this:
developer: “Hey Bubba, I’mm looking to build me a nice big condo right on that historical landmark there.”
city council member: “Well junior, that there’s a dandy idea! We love it when 20,000 people move here to this city every year, and we’s gonna need places to keep ‘em. WHOO WHEE! It’s like that there baseball movie ‘if we build it they’s a comming!’ I never done liked that landmark anyway, ’cause it wuz too boring. “
Planners are bound by certain laws including rights to property. If a piece of property is zoned for residential use than that property owner has the right to develop that land for residential (within certain regulations). In other words, the planners have very little power to stop someone from developing their property within it approved zoning classification.
Very true, but the amount of re-zoning that has gone on around here in the past five years is incredible. That included re-zoning from agricultural to residential and existing residential being re-zoned from lower to higher densities. Five years ago, it took me almost a year to subdivide off lousy two lots of a five lot property to sell it. I had to go through the most unbelievable crap with the county, and deal with three different departments, clear an old and hidden easement, apply for and get a variance, send out notices to all the homeowners within a certain radius, etc. And then, when all was coming down to the wire, the commission, which met only monthly on these matters, decided to cancel due to vacations and I was delayed yet another month.
I was just a peon citizen. However, for the developers, the county put in place a special “fast track” system. Really frosts my patootie.
Rage, Thank you. Well said.
As reported on Yahoo,”U.S. new home sales in May unexpectedly rose by 4.6%. Economists had forecasted a 4% decline.”
Like I have said before, builders will continue to build until they run oout of money or land. Demand is an afterthought.
“”U.S. new home sales in May unexpectedly rose by 4.6%…”
Probably good to keep in mind that those are essentially just deposits — they are not closed sales and many of them likely will fall through.