‘More Than An Orderly Downturn’ In Florida
The Orlando Sentinel reports on a conference in Florida. “Top housing-industry economists warned home builders meeting in Orlando on Wednesday that the industry will remain weak the rest of this year and next before possibly rebounding in 2008.”
“Higher interest rates and declining affordability are taking a toll, said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.”
“‘I’m trimming everything in our forecast. The economy has slowed and will slow further. I’ve got it that way through next year,’ Seiders said.”
“Seiders said cancellations of new-home sales contracts are up sharply, builder confidence has plummeted, investor-owned homes are boosting inventory to record levels and home prices are starting to slip. ‘Something is seriously going on here,’ said Seiders, who repeated a previous warning that ‘it’s more than an orderly downturn.’”
“Seiders said he continues to be concerned that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are having an unintended consequence in that they drive up the so-called core inflation rate in a respect related to the ongoing downswing in housing.”
“Rising interest rates..shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government’s Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said. ‘It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary. How crazy is that,’ he said.”
The Boca Raton News. “Despite reports of declining home sales, Boca Raton realtor Marlene Piccolo does not feel terribly concerned. ‘There’s a lot of product out there, but prices are going down,’ Piccolo said. ‘I think buyers are just taking their time and being careful.’”
“Recent statistics indicate that June existing single-family home sales for the Boca Raton-West Palm Beach area totaled only 947-a 39 percent drop from the same month in 2005. In addition, condominium sales of 512 were 41 percent less than June of last year, when 872 were recorded.”
“Some Realtors have attempted to sell listed homes by promising special incentives to prospective buyers. ‘I know that realtors have offered things like plasma TVs to encourage sales,’ Jack McCabe said. ‘Of course, with the way prices are dropping, that probably won’t be necessary.’”
wonder when BLS will switch to home prices as it housing measure- that would wipe inflation away in one swat………….
“Rising interest rates..shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government’s Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said. ‘It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary. How crazy is that,’ he said.”
NO! Top economist Seiders, the crazy one is anyone who listens to your comments because….
High, unafforable house prices, force consumers into apartment rentals. Interest rates were over 10% a few years ago, but affordable houses were being bought by working people to live in, not for investments.
David, Exactly..
” ” the industry will remain weak the rest of this year and next before possibly > rebounding in 2008.”
We’re supposed to belive this statement from Seiders, based on what? You said 6 months ago the outlook foward was strong ,and we should see further appreciation….What you really mean is ,”You hope!!” and based on your past predictions will most likely be wrong again…
Apartment rate increases are a symptom of inflation…Printing money is what the root cause is…If the government wants to contain inflation, they have to turn off the presses.
It’s a scary month for me. My lease is up and I am waiting to hear the increase. Word is $100-$200 a month. Heck I didn’t even have an increase in 2004 and a very small one in 2005. Looks like this is the year they intend to make up ground. Even last fall the place was begging me to sign a lease; this year it’s SIGN or MOVE, we’d prefer you MOVE.
be a squater in fancy homes for sale. you may have to move every year,but would live high and cheap !
I just saw afew of those on Craigslist for Fort Myers. Looks real nice for the price but it sounds like they inspect your furniture, dogs, and I can only imagine what else.
Call their bluff. There is an FB out there with an empty unit just praying for some kind of cash flow to stop the bleeding.
Hey, Moman, Florida income property owners are in a really bad way right now. They’ve been hit with huge insurance increases as well as tax increases. But, for most of them, raising the rent is a bluff. Most would rather keep a good tenant, and they’re betting that you’d rather stay put and take the increase instead of facing the inconvenience of moving. Giving you an increase is a bit of a gamble, they know there’s a risk you might call their bluff and then they’d either have to sit with an empty apartment at the inflated price or face the possibility of having to clean the apartment and spend on advertising to rent to an unknown tenant, who could be a deadbeat, for all they know. There’s no shortage of decent rental property in the Tampa area right now. I’ve been through this. I refused to take a $150.00 increase and moved. The landlord couldn’t get the price he wanted and ended up having to rent to a new tenant at the same price I was paying (I followed the ads in the local paper). He could have saved us both a lot of trouble. Depends on what your comfort level is. If you can find another place and are prepared to call the landlord’s bluff, have a backup plan in place and then negotiate. Just be willing to move if it doesn’t work out.
Look at it from a financial point of view. So what if they raise your rent $100 a month? That is $1200 for a year. I bet you spend more than that in moving costs, deposits, and stress moving to another place.
Bottom line is , do you like the place you are renting or not? It seems a no brainer to stay for $100 more. Sure you can always try and bluff them, but I wouldn’t walk for $100. If you are concerned about your credit score, moving does not add to it as well. The more you move, finance companies consider that as “instability.”
I am willing to pay $100 a month more, no problem. I am however exploring trying to rent from a FB (I wrote about that last week), that place is close and has a nice 2-car garage I could seriously use to store cars and JUNK.
The current plan is to renew regardless of the cost unless plan #2 comes in. Most important to me is that I like where I live and I dread moving. The financial outcome, as you noted, is largely a wash.
Certainly renting from a FB could have some advantages. You should keep in mind the FBs will make horrible landlords. They generally have neither the ability nor money to do any repairs that may be needed. There’s the possibility that you won’t get your damage deposit back (they’ve already spent it), and If the property is foreclosed upon, the bank might make you move tuit suite.(sp?)
I can confirm Jim’s issues with renting from AI’s (”amateur investors”). Family and I rented a single family home last November in Westchase, and here is a synopsis what happened:
1. The house had been purchased in the summer. AI put $60K down when it purchased - most likely from a refinance on his existing residence in Coral Springs. AI couldn’t find a buyer, so he decided to rent. 4 months later, that’s where we stepped in.
2. Though the house was promised to be cleaned up (pretty dusty sitting vacant that long), the day we moved in it was NOT cleaned up. Negotiated $50 off the next month’s rent with AI for that one.
3. All went well until late spring of this year, when AA (amatuer agent - also a newbie in the business) for AI called up, asking if we were interested in buying the house. From the tax records, I knew that the AI had paid $255K for this place (3/2.5/2, 1750 sq feet), which, in my detailed estimate, wasn’t worth a penny more than $175K. I politely declined.
4. Unbeknownst to us, the AI and his little AR friend had put a small clause in the lease, allowing the AI to end the lease early if he decided to sell, giving us 60 days notice. AI invoked that clause.
5. Further investigation reveals that AI, behind in his payments, now has a Lis Pending on the place. Also, in a small neighborhood of 70 houses, 10 are now for sale, several of which have been for sale since last winter.
6. We’ve moved out (to a bigger house with larger rent), and AI now has his place on the market for $307K.
7. Based on the market situation in the area, AI will probably lose all of the $60K that he put down on place, if he’s EXTREMELY lucky.
In my opinion, its going to take at least a year, probably 2 years before the market hits equilibrium. There are simply way too many over-priced properties on the market right now. Until the sellers get a grip on reality (or reality gets a grip on them, like this story of our little AI) its going to stay that way: large inventories with large prices.
Thanks for the story - that AI stuff is a prime concern of mine. There will have to be a heck of a risk discount and my goal is to step up to a nicer place with 2 car garage for a $100-$200/mo more than I’m paying now. Any more and it’s no dice,
BUT,
Just returned from lunch and saw a sign that made my day. A local apartment complex opened in 2004, there was nothing special about the location (it’s kind of crappy), and they went LUXURY CONDO this January. HUGE BANNER signs at the entrance saying “APARTMENTS AVAILABLE, NOW LEASING” right besire a small sign that says “Gateway luxury condos available now”. I will take some pictures and post them. This is the first reversion in the area which is great news for us renters.
I know that I am opening myself up for it but anyway,,,, am I the only fool that is waiting until we get back to around $150 a sq. ft? Currently, my market is around $230 - $250.
Where I sit it looks like it’s comming, and not like a snail, more like a train. I have been in just about all phases of RE for more than 20 years and have never seen anything unravel this fast.
Big Daddy — I am waiting for $100 a square foot, though not here in Florida. Personally, I don’t think $150 us unreachable here — that is more than direct-oceanfront condos in this area sold for in 1998.
Rents in east central Florida are lower than a year ago and headed down. Sellers who don’t drop their price enough to move the property — the vast majority, and predictably so, to date — will rent the properties to minimize the negative cash flow. This can go on for quite a while and will end only when prices begin collapsing and the sellers decide to end the pain. In Florida and probably Las Vegas, condo rentals shojuld be a steal, because they are far and away the type of housing that is sitting unoccupied right now. I think the remarks in the MSM are intended to influence the Fed next week — they always seem to bleat loudest in the week before the Fed meeting.
When a tenant vacates a property at the end of their lease it can be costly. For instance, if it takes 2 months for the landlord to find a new tenant and your rent was $1200/month, the landlord has already lost $2400. On top of that, they’ll have to pay to have it repainted and, if you’ve lived there for more than two years or so, new cheap carpet. We’ll be generous and say that this will all cost them only $600. So $3000 altogethor.
Now, if the rent increase was $200/month, it will take them 15 months to recoup their losses. Bluff rent increases as a landlord work really well, because tenants rarely fight them. When they do, you can usually just cut the increase in half and they’ll feel like they got a deal and calm down.
Look around for lower rents on comparable apartments. You have more bargaining power than you might think. I have applied this very successfully in the past.
“If the government wants to contain inflation, they have to turn off the presses.”
That’s exactly right. Has anyone noticed the Fed isn’t publishing M3 anymore? My guess is they don’t want us to know exactly how much faster than ever the presses are spinning.
I suspect people like Seiders are paid for their knowledge of economics, but in a perverse way. The better they know the truth, the better they can help the Ministry of Truth spin it into pseudo-babble to keep the hoi polloi believing that economics is an impenetrable dark art that is best left to their unelected masters at the central bank.
Seidler is right, but he was right three years ago, when lagging rents pulled CPI down and the FED rate was too low because of “no” inflation, and then he didn’t say anything. CPI should include some kind of house price index, or put in another way, the rents ascribed to homeowners should not only be calculated from rents for rentals but also from house prices. To change this at the peak of house prices, however, is bad advice, we would underestimate the long-term inflation (over decades) even more. On the other hand, a change now would save the government a lot of money through smaller indexed expenses, it might come anyhow.
On the other hand, a change now would save the government a lot of money through smaller indexed expenses, it might come anyhow.
_________________________________________________________
That’s why they’re doing it.
Would changing the CPI calculations not invite lawsuits from holders of inflation indexed treasuries, among others? Does anybody know if the rules for these indexed treasuries allow the government to define CPI as they like to see fit? Otherwise, the holders will insist on being paid after the old formula.
Suing the government — Leviathan — for changing the definition of CPI? No chance of success with that one, IMO. Off hand, I don’t know any lawyers who would take the case.
“Despite reports of declining home sales, Boca Raton realtor Marlene “Piccolo does not feel terribly concerned. ‘There’s a lot of product out there, but prices are going down,’ Piccolo said. ‘I think buyers are just taking their time and being careful.’”
Translation- ” I not worried. I will just tell my buyers to continue lowering their prices until I make my commission.”
Someone needs to save that quote and come back 6 months from now when he will be saying, ” Do you want fried with that?”
Add Seiders to the list! Cuff ‘em and stuff ‘em.
“investor-owned homes are boosting inventory to record levels”
When this is all in our rear view mirrors, it will be evident that speculation played a HUGE role is restricting supply and driving up prices. It will be interesting to see the average number of properties the typical flipper owned.
Regardless, the rental markets will be flooded with properties as flippers who can’t sell try to cut their losses. At first they will try to rent high to match their cash outflow but they will end up cutting and cutting to match what people can actually afford. By matching “reality” their “unreality” will be exposed (i.e. paid WAY TOO MUCH)….and they will go under…flooding the markets with homes.
Gravity….gotta love it.
Good call Seattle Moose. This is going to take a little time, like Chinese water torture. Slowly people will realize that they are way upside down and being bled to death each month. Then they start to look for a way out, then they realize there is NO way out.
Then after this process the bank gets the house and we have a lot of “jingle-mail” going on (keys being mailed back to the lender). That is when it gets really ugly.
And they’re going to be looking for somebody to blame. I predict lots of politicians will be busy “blame shifting.”
I predict lots of politicians will be busy “blame shifting.”
Without a doubt, but if I had to blame any one group for this debacle, I’d lay it firmly at the door of government, on both the local and national level. National for flooding the country with cheap funny money, local for the orgy of ill-advised permitting and re-zonings. And forget these crazy statistics that are either jiggered or are no reflection of what is really happening. I’d like to see something that reflects what percentage of the US population as a whole could REALISTICALLY (base on fundamentals) afford the median price of a home in JUST ONE of the more bubbly markets. That would really tell a story.
palmetto, I have to disagree with you, although not entirely.
National and local governments share some of the blame, but I think it’s a mistake to think of “the government” as an entity entirely separate from the population at large. The government unfortunately is composed of many of “we the people”. Not that that in itself is bad it’s just that what the government has done is in my opinion merely symptomatic of what we as a nation of individuals are guilty of, and that’s fear and greed fueled by financial ignorance. The Fear of not having a retirement and the Greed of having more, or the latest, or having something now has driven thousands of baby-boomers into becoming what they think of as “investors”. The public at large has not taken enough care or time to educated themselves financially. They have no business being “investors” as evidenced by the fact that they think “flipping” is “investing”. They haven’t developed the emotional fortitude true investing required to delay gratification. And then they get elected to office,… and there you go. Need I say more?
Brian, we are mostly in agreement on the issue. It is true, if people just said “NO”, this would not have happened. The severe lack of education is a huge problem, but what can I say? Most public schools are nothing more than warehouses for kids, or clinic/delivery systems for pharmaceutical companies promoting ADD or ADHD. The real problem is not Attention Deficit Disorder. It’s Intelligence Deficit Disorder.
As for people all of a sudden thinking they are “investors” without any real background on the subject of investing, your point is well taken. My home was purchased by a couple who thought of themselves as “investors”. But the rent won’t cover their outgo and the property is not appreciating. How is that an investment?
Yeah moose, if it was me looking for an apt I’d find a FB and a house I liked, and even if he was looking for a high rent I’d offer to pay him what I wanted month to month.
They won’t get the high rent and you’ll be there until they forclose on him.
Wow, this guy is effing clueless. It’s called hedonistic adjustments a-hole. Next they replace rent with price to own once house prices really drop. Actually, rents will drop too from all the excess inventory so they won’t have to do anything. Either way, clueless.
Andy,
I believe that’s Hedonic. Hedonistic is a whole other thing…
You are correct sir, I’d say the run up in house prices we’re hedonistic adjustments. LOL
Realogy stock went public ,and manages RE franchise brands,and Mgt. etc. It should be an interesting bellweather stock to watch also..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=H&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
WTF is that?
Realogy Corporation provides real estate and relocation services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Real Estate Franchise Services, Company Owned Real Estate Brokerage Services, Relocation Services, and Title and Settlement Services. The Real Estate Franchise Services segment franchises the Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA, Sotheby’s International Realty, and Coldwell Banker Commercial brand names. The Company Owned Real Estate Brokerage Services segment owns and operates a real estate brokerage business under the Coldwell Banker, ERA, Corcoran Group, and Sotheby’s International Realty brand names.
That will be a great short in 90 days.
So, this is pretty much just the new Cendant, right? Vertical integration, Disney-style. Don’t let one of those nickels escape to anyone else! All they need to add is funeral homes and caskets.
Realogy Corporation provides real estate and relocation services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Real Estate Franchise Services, Company Owned Real Estate Brokerage Services, Relocation Services, and Title and Settlement Services. The Real Estate Franchise Services segment franchises the Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA, Sotheby’s International Realty, and Coldwell Banker Commercial brand names. The Company Owned Real Estate Brokerage Services segment owns and operates a real estate brokerage business under the Coldwell Banker, ERA, Corcoran Group, and Sotheby’s International Realty brand names.
“Recent statistics indicate that June existing single-family home sales for the Boca Raton-West Palm Beach area totaled only 947-a 39 percent drop from the same month in 2005.”
I would like pictures of the 947 idiots who bought these homes.
And how many were realtors or specuvestors.
I’d like to see the pix of the 10 year reunion.
…and I’d love to see how many are intending to move in. Good luck on the “flip-side”…heh heh….
What about July? It’s already August.
The Tampa Tribune:
‘Looking for a good deal on a condo? Soon, you might not have to look further than your computer to find some of Tampa’s most motivated sellers. A Tampa native is pooling together developers who need to unload condos fast and auctioning their properties on the Internet to the highest bidder.’
‘The apartment-to-condominium market seems to be flooded in some areas. Twenty-eight thousand apartment units have sold as condos in the past two years. Some of the developers with unsold inventory have decided to lease units, others are getting desperate to make sales quickly and avoid foreclosure.’
‘Before, you didn’t know the price was going down on condos like yours until months later, if you looked in the newspaper,’ he said. ‘Now, you’ll know immediately what your competition is doing’
Seeing their prices dropping by bids each week will make some FB’s truly lose it….
Yeah, they think they’re going to finally unload the places. At least in the current market you can’t openly see the low-balls coming through. With an internet auction it’ll be quite obvious what people would actually be willing to pay for the POS these FBs are carrying. Then it will be a panic. At least when a house sits on the market, it’s just a house sitting on the market, but no visual as to how exactly overpriced it really is.
“I’m trimming everything in our forecast. The economy has slowed and will slow further. I’ve got it that way through next year,’ Seiders said.”
What a joke. This guy thinks “forecast” means project today’s conditions into the future, and then tomorrow project tomorrow’s conditions into the future.
All this BS about interest rates causing the absence of buyers is ridiculous — mortgage rates have actually declined significantly from their highs over the last few months.
“It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary.”
The Fed tightening is NOT inflationary. It is just shifting the signs of inflation (higher prices)out of an area they don’t measure into the area where they measure it. The inflation (increase in the money supply) already happened due to LOW interest rates, and the signs are showing up now.
Well said.
‘Something is seriously going on here,’ said Seiders, who repeated a previous warning that ‘it’s more than an orderly downturn.’”
Golly… I never would have guessed that from being here at ground zero in Orlando… HousingTracker shows inventory up about 62% in the last 6 months and those don’t include FSBO numbers. Does he REALLY think something might be going on?!?
Yo! Beer and Cigar Guy! Are you currently in the Orlando market? I am and it is getting increasingly scarier every day. Seiders numerical analysis should definetly be taken with a grain of salt ( and probably a shot of tequila too!).
I am planning to move to Orlando later this year and have (sporadically) been keeping track of the listings on craiglist. Looks like the rental inventory is starting to really take off now.
I don’t guarantee the absolute accuracy of date vs number as I copy and paste a lot and sometimes forget to change the date.
Craiglist house rentals.
3BR 3BR
hmm maybe it was too long, trying again.
Craiglist house rentals.
3BR 3BR
Sorry it was an embedded <
Craiglist house rentals.
3BR 3BR less than 1000
Date Orlando Orlando
25/03 610 63
26/03 614 63
27/03 604 61
28/03 599 59
29/03 618 63
30/03 630 64
31/03 641 64
01/04 631 62
02/04 637 61
03/04 645 61
04/04 670 59
06/04 684 55
08/04 702 55
09/04 699 53
10/04 693 52
11/04 695 51
12/04 706 53
18/04 729 50
19/04 741 48
20/04 753 49
21/04 763 50
22/04 764 54
23/04 757 53
24/04 751 54
25/04 762 54
28/04 780 54
01/05 766 56
11/05 825 71
12/05 838 74
15/05 845 72
16/05 844 78
17/05 849 75
18/05 871 78
19/05 851 76
23/05 874 74
24/05 900 78
25/05 906 80
26/05 920 82
09/06 961 84
20/06 1038 79
21/06 1059 82
22/06 1066 82
26/06 1061 75
27/06 1060 76
28/06 1068 80
30/06 1069 80
01/07 1055 80
06/07 1090 82
07/07 1087 84
10/07 1064 86
11/07 1084 89
14/07 1148 91
19/07 1145 87
22/07 1173 90
25/07 1195 86
27/07 1230 95
31/07 1226 98
01/08 1255 98
02/08 1306 101
03/08 1347 103
‘Something is seriously going on here,’ Should say, “Something is seriously going wrong here.”
OK… italics off?
“Boca Realtor Chrissy Piazza said that a new examination by Florida lawmakers into tax portability-designed to help homeowners relocate while keeping the same tax base-will have positive results.
“It would be nice to finally have something on the books,” Piazza said. “When both taxes and property insurance are addressed, homeowners’ fears will be greatly alleviated.”
If she’s waiting for portability to jump-start sales, I hope she has a lot of patience. Here’s a statement from a Florida Legislative Website:
“2006 ACTION: The following legislation all related to varying portability concepts — Senate bills: SJR138, SJR112, SJR184, SJR384. House bills: HJR33, HJR239, HJR417 — but the Legislature failed to pass any of them. This means portability will NOT appear on the 2006 ballot. We remain supportive of the concept and hope to see it qualify for the 2008 statewide ballot. Look for it to be back as a hot topic in the 2007 Legislative Session. “
But it’s the 1000 per day of people moving in who are supporting the market, the tax portability won’t help them one bit. In fact they’re even more likely to get foreclosed because they won’t be aware that the tax number on the listing is so far below what they’ll actually pay.
Bait and switch on a state wide level. Advertise low taxes to the out of staters and stick them with a mondo bill the next year.
This “tax portability” is another stupid idea from the Florida politicians whose brains are sodden from heat and humidity, but the builders and realtors love it because it would be another desperate ploy to prop up housing prices. It’ll go away, because as the prices tank, the perceived need for tax portability will disappear. I haven’t read any of the proposed legislation, but I did talk to one politician (neocon wannabe) whose spin on the issue is “Families are trapped in their homes and can’t move up because of the increase in taxes”. I would be tempted to call him an idiot (or worse), but I know that he knows it’s a crock and just political spin to seduce voters who don’t know any better. And he knows that I know what the real reason is that families can’t move: high prices and astronomical insurance.
My opinion is that something will be done for those who can’t move DOWN because of taxes. They have a family size house, the kids have moved out, but moving to a place half the size will end up costing them more money because of taxes. I believe that they’d make them move within the same county, as someone could move from South Florida to some much less expensive area of Florida with enough “portability credits” to have them pay NO taxes.
Good point, SFC. When I first moved from South Florida to West Central Florida, I was looking in the Dade City area of Pasco County. It was actually possible to find a house there in 2000 where you didn’t have to pay any taxes at all as a result of depressed values and the homestead exemption. Not that you’d want to live in one of those homes, but it was possible.
I’m loving the posts here - especially the comments about the 947 morons in West Palm-Boca. Hillarious! (and so true)
In any market, when it peaks, there always has to be some losers who bought at the very top, and when it bottoms out, there always has to be some losers who sold at the very bottom. Simple transactionaly algebra.
This guy Seiders is definitely living in La-La land, but at least he’s admitting something’s wrong. Read any statement from the NAR and you’ll witness complete and utter denial. Hey, used-car salesman gotta’ eat, and so do realtors. ;^)
“Interest rate cuts..shifted more consumers into the owenrship market, cutting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government’s Consumer Price Index, signaling less inflation,” Seiders SHOULD HAVE said. “It turns out that Fed tightening is deflationary. How crazy is that,” he SHOULD HAVE said.
But he didn’t.
The Economist argued that the FED needed to take asset price inflation (including housing prices) into its calculations. Greenspan did not agree. Bernanke agreed with Greenspan. Not he seems to be changing his mind.
To heck with incentives - cut the price!!!
I would rather have a house on the Tax man’s records as low as possible. So cut the price!
One yahoo on here on houses I am tracking in ZIP realty (Forsyth County, GA) actually increased their price by 10K last week and is now offering a 10K decorating package.
Da scam what am! Raise the price 10K so you can graciously offer a 10K price cut. Sweet. Who says sellers are greedy? Nah, not these folks. Just inventive.
I still say if the builder offers a 30k incentive as a example , in order to move the property ,the lender must reduce the sales price by that incentive .The buyer must put more money down . If the builder is not disclosing the incentive the the appraiser/lender ,that is fraud .
Also , I question that big incentive gifts can be given by builders ,(that the builders write off ),without a tax liability to the receiver on that gift .As I see it ,the builders want to write off the incentives ,not include it as a reduction in sales price ,and the borrower wants to pay the higher property taxes on a inflated sales price because of the gift . It just doesn’t ring right .All money has to be accounted for .
Wiz — that sounds right to me. I’d be a pretty unhappy lender, or MBS bag-holder, when I found out that 10-20% of the value of the financed property was given to the buyer as essentially consumables. It’s got to be in the contract, nevertheless, so there is at least a decent paper trail. I’m surprised the folks with badges and guns at the Infernal R.S. have not begun to kick in some doors, Elian-style, over this.
I feel sorry for the MBS bagholders . I feel like truth in lending has been violated . Mark my word ,before this is all said and done I bet some major lawsuits are going to come about regarding the issues of accounting of money, taxes and truth in lending .
Wiz,
Absolutely!! I believe the ratings agencies will turn out to be the guilty culprits after everyone is finished pointing fingers. IMHO, this is where the REAL fraud occured. Scary.
I suspect that when those second mortgages go hyperbolic (wait for it…)we’ll see cases wher the seller gave 20% of “incentives” so the buyer could avoid mortgage insurance.
I live in Boca and my next door neighbor just sold her condo (950 sf), starting price 245, not sure what she sold it for, in less than 3 weeks. My sister just got married and sold her house 1 town to the north (Delray Beach) twice at around 260 then 240 the second time, but buyer financing fell thru both times before contract was signed. My neighbor was already packing her boxes, when she told me her conttract was being signed mid August. I didn’t want to sound snarky and tell her what happened to my sister but maybe I should.
Just pisses me off that I’m an engineer, she’s a secretary, and my sister is a public-school teacher, and they’re both about to pocket about 100 grand just because they were in the right place at the right time. Instead of going to college to learn a profession of civic value (not that a teacher isn’t vital), I joke with my friends that I should have stayed home from college (98-03) and flipped properties…I’d be rich now!
Thus the saying “Luck is better than skill.” Being at the right place at the right time can make anyone a lot of money.
“Lucky” only gets you so far when investing/trading in any market.
These new “Lucky” people now think they have skills and will overextend themselves next time. They will eventually give up the gains unless they truly understand how markets work.
The problem with “LUCK” is that these people suddenly feel qualified and smart to make more financial decisions. Those without a background might be able to win once but cannot repeat the success. Don’t worry, I feel stupid as well but when all these people are hurting paying for expensive gas, SUV payments, and mortgages I will feel smart because of skill, not luck.
Seiders said he continues to be concerned that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are having an unintended consequence in that they drive up the so-called core inflation rate in a respect related to the ongoing downswing in housing
Interesting. Anyone remember him complaining that the fed was underestimating inflation a couple of years back, as lower demand for rentals was having the opposite effect on core inflation? Anyone? Anyone?
If only there were, I don’t know, some kind of Latin prefix that one could put in front of “orderly” to indicate that the situation can no longer be categorized as orderly. Anyone have a prefix for dis noun?
I’ve got a friend who got “lucky” and made 200k on a condo flip. Instead of taking his money off the table he doubled down and bought a pre-sale gulf front unit. He is likely going to have to strap that mortgage on. He can afford it but it will affect his lifestyle. As others have said, luck will only get you so far.
He made out like a bandit on the 200k. He got a $1,000.00 letter of credit from a local bank for the downpayment guarantee so he essentially turned 1k into 200k but now he is going to get a real haircut.
I have full access to the local (Pensacola) MLS system and price reductions of 30-35% are all over the place. I just did this search from 01/01/01 to 08/03/06, the condo flippers are getting hammered here now.
The insurance market in FL is a catastrophe right now and is likely to get worse. Many condo associations have seen their master policy go from 25k per year to 125k. I’ve been at this gig for over 20 years and own a substantial amount of re all paid for and not mortgaged. I have been ratholing money for some time now and will step back in to the market when the time is right, I just don’t want to buy in at the dead cat bounce.
RM