San Diego Home Sales ‘Continue To Decline’ In July
Bob Casagrand at Realty Times has a July report on San Diego. “Homes sales continue to decline, sales for July were 2,396 versus 3,779 for last July. This is a drop of 37% from last year and a 19% decline from this June. July Pending sales were a dismal 2,310, which is a predictor for a continuing decline in home sales.”
“The inventory at the end of July was 22,919; this is almost a 10 month supply of homes and an increase of almost 1,000 homes in the month. Approximately 65% of this year listings have gone off market by expiring, cancelling or being withdrawn, approximately 90% of those re-list and are kept on the market.”
“In seller market years the expired, cancelled and withdrawn listings represented about 8.5% of the listings. I think this gives us some idea on how long it is taking to sell homes.”
“The pricing picture is a little more complicated. Sellers were asking for more and not getting the increase. The Active inventory has an average asking price of $747,845 while the homes that sold were at $667,336 and the Pending sales had an average asking price of $639,199. Part of this difference is the Actives are a little large.”
“I believe that another explanation is two tier pricing. Condo prices have taken the biggest hit so far. The average price in July was $399,000 down about 8% from last year. While the sfd prices remained flat. If I take the sfd sold between 1700 and 1800 square feet the average price this July is $551,000, down 6.6% from last year and if I take the homes between 2000 and 2100 square feet the average price of $646,000 is up 0.6% from last year.”
“The same thing is happening by neighborhood as well. It is very important for buyers and sellers to know what is happening in their respective neighborhoods and with their house styles to make sound decisions.”
This city is due for a drubbing. Good luck flippers!
More than you know, I wonder what happened to our esteemed poster, Enron-by-the-Sea whose handle was a play on the looming SD pension problem.
There is pretty much no way out except for bankruptcy.
I am still here. Not active as before on this forum because of several other things going on in my life.
SD is in trouble. Everyone around me seems to be acknowleding the existence of the bubble and the only debate here seems to be about is how much of a haircut we will be taking.
The brightest stars of our economy (i.e. wireless/biotech) are also in trouble. Nokia is closing here and Qualcomm stock is not doing so well. If we do not produce multi-billion dollar success stories every few years, like the bay area, there is really no reason to pay so high to own a shack here.
sempra is doing just fine, maybe not swell.
They are doing so fine that they sold their energy services unit, while others in the industry are making a killing with high energy prices and the PUC has $2B in grants hanging out ready to be grabbed by this sector.
Just wait for the slow season to kick in.. Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb… Thanks Nokia. You just added to the demise of SD’s housing market.. Now instead of the heard 8% of the population being able to afford here, only 6% will be able to afford. Who is going to buy here? Plus, think about all the new homes for sale right now with Mel-a-roose and property tax at 1.9, plus HOA fees of $140 + mortgage of $600K with rates in the high 6.8, if you have perfect credit..
The inventory at the end of July was 22,919; this is almost a 10 month supply of homes and an increase of almost 1,000 homes in the month.
Isn’t 10 months the magical decline number?
Me thinks some of these flippers may have flipped their last flip! Heading for the ole flip-flop from a ten-story skeletal condo tower!
Someone said 9 months a few months back. Either way… it appears like this thing could/will spiral downward pretty quick.
6-8 months normal.
4 months tight.
10 months oversupply.
We’ve had our numerator, supply do its thing; rise. Second wave, the denominator; sales. Time for sales to plummet. Then brace for the third wave, loan approvals. Then the unethical part; the bank says you cannot qualify for that house but this one just down the street just like it that the bank just happens to own…
Does everyone get it? The only place to buy a house may be the banks that have too many, freezing out individual sellers. Welcome to Robert’s new world of the Immobility Class.
wow. That is truly horrific stuff.
That said, most of my buds in SD still have no idea that there is even a possibility of a bubble, except for my previously-discussed friend who’s trying unsuccessfully to unload his townhouse to move to SF.
Even when my friends hear of his plight, they say “well of COURSE, that house is in University Heights… nobody wants to live there!”
It’s humorous because they live in North Park, Hillcrest, and Mission Hills, all neighborhoods which are less than a mile away! And some even live in University Heights. Those that do refer to which STREET his house is on!
Clouseau.
While there is quite a bit of difference in even less than a mile in the areas you mentioned, this is a credit bubble.
I live in North Park on a pretty good street. There are 5 houses for sale, nothing moving. One had a Sold sign appear a couple weeks ago. It disappeared a week later.
Agreed. (In fact I thought about this point while typing my comment)
I lived in Mission Hills for a long time, and would visit friends over in North Park/Hillcrest, etc (even Normal Heights sometimes!). there can be a huge variation within even 1 block !!! (I’m reminded of the difference between a house ON Balboa park on Upas St. compared to just 1/2 a block away!)
However, my friends all live in comparable blocks although in different neighborhoods. My friend who is trying to sell, has a 2 year old house that is “luxury”… it even has granite countertops and a SubZero Fridge and Viking range LOL! Yet he can’t get an offer. Last I checked, he was asking for 8% above the original sale price which was 3 yrs ago. (he bought a year before moving in)
To me it’s more funny how people can dissassociate themselves from whatever they like. If a brand new condo in Univ. Heights is having trouble selling (the condo is a few blocks south from that park on Adams and Florida), then a comparable street comparable home will likely also have problems just a few blocks away- especially when there are like 5-10 “for sale” signs in your own block!
Yet my friends literally all say “duh, University Heights sucks” when they live like 5 blocks away across 169 making them technically Hillcrest.
when they live like 5 blocks away across 169 making them technically Hillcrest.
I obviously meant “across the 163″
I’ve lived in MN too long. 169 is a highway here!
Eek… I’m truly becoming a Minnesotan mind body and spirit!
rofl
clouseau.
North Park, Normal Heights, Hillcrest, University Ave, El Cajon Blvd…
You guys ought to check out the arjis crime maps. Hilarious to think that someone will pay a half million to be raped, robbed, or killed. I cannot think of a more dangerous place to live in San Diego, crime wise (National City might be a close second). Rancho Bernardo is 17 minutes north on I-15.
As Labor Day approaches, and houses listed 4 months ago, have not sold, Panic will begin. The homeowners wholl think it can’t happen in their neighborhood are in denial (or just plain freightened to speak the truth). When the National sales for July come out end of this month, even the most know-it all will start having doubts about what he truly beleives. And as the schools open up for the fall semester, the real estate crash of 2006 will begin in earnest
Anyone know where Scripps Ranch fits into all this? Or is it too far out to really be considered a part of San Diego?
Are you kidding? Scripps Ranch is right in the thick of this!
Again, as this is a credit bubble it affects everywhere. San Diego had the credit and added in speculation for good measure. This goes all the way up to Temecula and hell, Palm Springs and onto Vegas for that matter.
Feep — the reason I ask is that a friend, whom I’ve educated about the bubble, visited there two weeks ago and said she saw almost no for-sale signs. ??
Feep — do you know if there are multiple zip codes for Scripps Ranch, or just one. I might start tracking the area, just to make my point.
I don’t know the zip for Scripps, and I don’t know if it’s all one. I would think it probably isn’t.
You know, it’s entirely possible she saw no signs. The area she was in may not have that many. For example, I know San Elijo Hills is overrun (got a friend up there)… as in INSANE. While in North Park we have more than last year, but not quite overwhelming to the casual observer.
Still doesn’t mean it’s good to buy there.
And don’t bother making points. I’d rather be rich than right.
zip code in scripps ranch is 92131
This is such a common RE perma bull tactic. We get them (although much less frequently of late) over at patrick.net. When you finally get them to describe things down to the brass tacks you find out it’s this ONE house on ONE street in ONE neighborhood in ONE town, that went for ABOVE asking! Pffft! Well lah de da! Who cares? Your little RE empire is crumbling down around your ears and you want feed me this one select instance? Can we talk about the other 99.999% that bought in 2005 also and are completely underwater? Thanks for pointing this out Inspector. The quicker frauds of this ilk are exposed the sooner we can get on with the healing.
“I believe that another explanation is two tier pricing. Condo prices have taken the biggest hit so far. The average price in July was $399,000 down about 8% from last year. While the sfd prices remained flat. If I take the sfd sold between 1700 and 1800 square feet the average price this July is $551,000, down 6.6% from last year and if I take the homes between 2000 and 2100 square feet the average price of $646,000 is up 0.6% from last year.”
I wonder if his figures for larger homes take into consideration massive discounts by builders? At any rate, there is something suspicious about the claim that the bottom end of the market is dropping while the top is holding up. After all, you can lose money twice as fast by owning twice-as-expensive a home when prices are falling.
They are “holding up” simply because they are “held up”… ie: not selling.
The condo sales reflect actual sales going through because we can still find some GFs at the lower price levels.
Not if the wealth divide is growing fast, which appears to be the case.
Similar news in Santa Barbara:
Number of Sales in South Santa Barbara County:
July 2006-132
July 2005-218
Avg Sales Price:
July 2006-$1,245,598
July 2005-$1,459,041
Median Sales Price:
July 2006 $999,250 (under $1MM! Woohoo!!)
July 2005 $1,060,000
In Santa Barbara, our favorite topics of conversation are of course the weather (and we always complain-especially this summer, where temps actually hit 90!) and real estate. All the cocktail chatter now focuses on how dead the real estate market is-lots and lots of signs.
As for the realtor-adult ratio of 1:55 for CA, that is way off here, it’s more like 1:20, plus a 1:20 mortgage broker ratio. Lots of worried people wondering where the easy money went.
YOY Decline of 6%. OUCH!! Who is your source? Thanks for the SB update!
It’s called the CORT report (sorry-I have no idea what it stands for). I get it every month from a couple realtors in email blasts. Great info, broken down by region (Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, Hope Ranch, etc.). I can’t post it because it comes in a PDF.
I heard (heresay disclaimer) the local MLS now refuses to discuss sales data with the press, because the press will just print gloom and doom reports.
Both of my sources are old-time, professional realtors, by the way. They’ve lived through SB downturns before, and are waiting for this one just like we are, if for nothing else to thin the herd of competition a little.
What’s your friend’s take on how this will play out in SB? I.e. price drops, etc.
Sorry-typo
Avg sales price in July 2006 is $1,345,598.
Why worry if you live in SB? Just go outside.
Does Bob readjust his “Months of Supply” figure based on sales from July 06? It seems with inventory increasing so rapidly and sales/month dropping so quickly, the “Months of Supply” figure should increase 4 fold. We’ll be at a year of inventory by September at this rate. I can’t wait.
“The Active inventory has an average asking price of $747,845 while the homes that sold were at $667,336 and the Pending sales had an average asking price of $639,199. Part of this difference is the Actives are a little large.”
He conveniently avoided the obvious explanation suggested by these numbers: Overpriced homes don’t sell. Further, the “homes that sold” average is stale compared to the more recent transactions averaged in Pending sales, suggesting that prices are falling, assuming no major change has occurred in the quality mix of the homes which sold.
here is a wizard’s observation.
whatever happened to the notion, which some realtors suggested, that sellers will simply take their houes off the market if they can’t sell. the realtors were saying this all along to make a point that prices won’t go down, there will just be less houses for sale. well, look at this picture and it’s obvious that sellers keep wanting to sell and keep relisting their houses month after month. b/c if they were to take their house off the market, they will have to wait another fifteen years for it to be at this level again.
Nick,
They can’t just take the houses off of the market because many people HAVE TO SELL. They are in ARM that will readjust and crush them. They have 2 options, sell or foreclose. They can’t just hang on for 15 years.
He knows that, he’s pointing out yet another realtor factoid being shot down by reality.
There is some truth to this.
A) People will delude themselves and believe the soft-landing/temporary pause BS.
B) Lately (weeks), SD inventory has leveled/gone down. Perhaps things are not gettting relisted.
I think that the realtors may be right in the short term, but ARMs, RE related job losses, RE agents needing liquidity (in their wallet and in the market), and the months away realization by everybody that the bust is coming, will change all that long term. Then inventory will skyrocket. Then it will be the bubble believers who get to say “wait ’till spring!” - haha
Right on Nick…….I am dizzy from the Realtor Spin! Folks will simply settle back into there house and wait……..WTF!
Where I live in Meridian, ID, there are over 600 “under construction” and “new and never occupied” homes on the market. Are the builders going to pull these homes off the market and wait for a better market? Nope- they need to cover their a$$ and recoup their money just like bleeding flippers will need to sell their properties before they go into bk.
It is my understanding the builder (new) inventory is not counted in MLS?
A lot of builders around here list their homes on the MLS- most subdivisions are marketed by RE companies rather than the builder. Corey Barton Homes http://www.coreybartonhomes.com/ is one of the largest builders in the area and all of their inventory is on the MLS.
I’ve never bought that notion. Once a person has gone through all of the motions necessary to put a house on the market, they have psychologically commited to sell. At what price is the only issue, not whether.
Churchhill was once overheard to ask a woman “Will you sleep with me for 1 million pounds?” After a moment’s reflection, she responded “Yes I would.” He replied, “Well, then how about 10 pounds?” Taken aback, she replied “Just what do you think I am?”
His response? “Madam, we’ve already established what you are, now we’re just negotiating the price.”
My favorite Churchill anecdote:
Woman: “If I were your wife, I would poison you.”
Churchill: “Madam, if I were your husband, I would gladly drink poison.”
Nick the wizard …. I believe that there is even more inventory that wasn’t put on the market this year . I think the inventory will only increase because these sellers need to sell and many plan to sell next summer,( convinced that the market will again be going back up next season ).
I have a real problem with the story line the realtors and the NAR are giving potential sellers about this pause in appreciation/correction .
Here’s to the hope that valuations referenced to sq.ft. will become a common feature. Apples to relative apples.
neighborhood breakdown of price per sq.ft. is quite well established in the nyc co-op/condo mkt. but prices themselves have often been quite difficult to glean. a new law just passed will make all r.e. transactions public info. but they still will not indicate actual sales prices transacted before law takes effect.
I agree! Unfortunately, Bob Casagrand is a point off the curve. In fact, the guy is a straight arrow, and I’m surprised that the NAR doesn’t try to sack him for putting out real info.
I spend most of my lunch breaks touring condo sales centers in downtown San Diego. I stopped by the Center City Development Corporation (CCDC - right outside of Horton Plaza) and got an updated project list for the city. Apparently 4 of the properties have been put “On Sale” before the projects ever got started. Most of these projects have permits pulled and some level of design complete. The list of projects for sale are:
1. 10th and B - 191 condos and 14k of retail
2. 11th and B - 196 condos and 7k of retail
3. The Elle Condo Tower - 191 condos (design complete and marketing campaign)
4. The Triangle - 57 condos and 2k of retail (demolition complete, plans almost complete, major marketing campaign)
As the trend continues we should have projects farther and farther along the construction cycle selling before completion. We already had one partially complete condo tower that was bought and sold during the construction phase. As we get further into the cycle the developers won’t be able to sell the projects, and that’s when it gets really ugly.
http://www.ccdc.com
Wow, I had no clue that they were building that much!!!! Thanks.
I highly recommend the following article:
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
A little OT but you know that little problem BP is having in Alaska (8% of nations oil supply being shut down), well according to CNBC that’s basically California’s (west coast) oil. So it will be felt more acutely here than anywhere else. The strategic oil reserves are in the eastern part of the US so there is no easy fix. Talk about adding insult to injury. Many were expecting a little bump up during Aug and Sept in CA, I don’t believe that will be happening now. This little event could send CA into recession far faster than most anticipated.
Not to mention that it’s going to disproportionally impact those with long commutes–like the people living in Palmdale and commuting to LA. The same people getting socked with huge electricity bills. And ARM resets.
Yep, lets see how it unfolds but talk about a potential pin to REALLY pop this bubble, a regional oil shock could be that.
A little OT but you know that little problem BP is having in Alaska (8% of nations oil supply being shut down), well according to CNBC that’s basically California’s (west coast) oil. So it will be felt more acutely here than anywhere else. The strategic oil reserves are in the eastern part of the US so there is no easy fix. Talk about adding insult to injury. Many were expecting a little bump up during Aug and Sept in CA, I don’t believe that will be happening now. This little event could send CA into recession far faster than most anticipated.
I thought Alaskan oil had too high a sulfur content for California.
Are they merely saying that California represents 8% of the country’s oil usage? And does it matter in a global market?
This is from the SF Chronicle
“08-07) 10:46 PDT — Sunday’s shut-down of a major Alaskan oil field will likely push California’s gasoline prices higher.
California depends heavily on crude from the North Slope, including the Prudhoe Bay field that oil giant BP decided to close after finding serious pipeline corrosion.
Alaska supplies roughly 20 percent of all the oil used in California refineries, with the rest coming either from the state’s own oil fields or from abroad. The shut-down, effective until BP can fully assess and repair damage to its pipeline, will cut North Slope oil exports in half.
California’s gasoline prices have been stable for several weeks, stuck just above $3.20 for a gallon of regular. The sudden pinch in oil supplies threatens to change that.
“Throughout the course of the month, you’ll see refineries have to cut runs, which is going to yield less gasoline, less diesel, less jet fuel,” said Denton Cinquegrana, West Coast markets editor with the Oil Price Information Service.”
Are they merely saying that California represents 8% of the country’s oil usage?
No. That would be catastrophic to us. (like post-Katrina fiasco)
It is 8% of the oil PRODUCED by US oil fields I believe. (the rest is produced in other fields in Alaska and off the various coasts, like in the Gulf of MX as example)
The oil from that field is is 0.5% (one half of one percent) of the World’s supply.
clouseau.
I was in a Mobil station last week and can you believe someone bought 6 dollars worth of gas? I fought hard not to go into an hysterical laugh.
Are you sure they didn’t just fill up their tank before a long journey? I have done that in the past when I knew I was going out into the boondocks with few gas stations and high prices.
one thing I sometime do is when I’m forced to fill up at a pricey pump, I just fill it for 2-3 gallons knowing that I’ll be near the station of my choice, ie. much cheaper, later on that day.
On my way into Vegas I had some lady said she ran out of gas and didn’t have any money to make it home. She was legit, kids in the car, not some bum.
I never usually give people that approach me money, but she looked distraught, so I reached in my wallet and gave her 5 dollars.
It wasn’t until I got back in my car that I figured out why she wasn’t relieved. I guess back in the day $5 could get you somewhere, just outside vegas in the miserable desert she might have been able to buy 1 gallon.
Yep… Expect $3.50 gasoline here in so-cal really quickly. Even worse, it might not be the price that hurts… it could be rationing. I’m not sure about this yet… I just don’t know how California will compensate without its oil supply…
Neil
Why do I feel that this oil lead is a bunch of bullshi*? Do I smell Enron? It would be nice if we could trust our corporations, but I find it hard to.
lead = leak… sorry
It would be nice if I could lose 20 pounds without exercising or changing my eating habits. It would be nice if my salary were doubled tomorrow. It would be nice if we could trust our government too.
Corporations consist of humans. Humans are lying scum.
Invest (and shop) accordingly.
My hubby heard that the new business motto is, “If you are not lying, you are not working hard enough!”
really? one of my coworkers says ”if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying”
BP owns ARCO. Filled up this morning $3.25/gal. Not bad for California.Socialist Dems in California legislature putting forward a $4 billion/yr tax on oil and gas. The dumb voters will probably go for it. Good luck if you own a car. Get a bike or a mule.Crazy Sierra Club terrorists are for it.
$ 3.50? shhh … don’t tell the Europeans, otherwise they will not only buy up all the US investment properties but also the total gasoline supply
The Europeans have always paid more per gallon but the distance they travel on a daily basis is tiny compared to the average Californian. I don;t know if this is true but I once heard that you could fit all of London in the Disney World parking lot!
quickly? we’ve been there for a while. a $2.96 per gallon is the bargain!
have you heard the comment of bp ceo in cnn last week? all storage capacities in the world is full of oil. there is already a glut, an overproduction (due most likely to lower demand), yet prices are not coming down. care to guess why?
Of crude oil we have plenty. Of refined oil we have hardly any surplus — which means that the refiners can pretty much dictate what they charge, because there’s no one to undercut them.
It would be a great opportunity for an ambitious entrepreneur to invest in more refining capacity — but good luck getting a refinery built pretty much anywhere in the U.S. My uncle has crashed and burned several times trying. The up-front costs just to deal with environmental and land-use compliance, let alone the actual (huge) costs of plant, are discouraging. Especially since high returns on oil investment are a pretty recent thing; they’re making record profits now, but oil was trading around $21 a barrel only a few years ago. Look at the stock prices of the oil companies. They’re not all that high compared to the companies’ revenues and profits. People with money in the game evidently don’t think the companies’ pricing power will last forever.
but why are prices of crude oil is so high? the shortage is in refined products, like gasoline, not crude oil.
Heavy sigh. Have you, you know, noticed the war? Both of them? (Not to mention the threatened one with Iran) Tends to make people skittish about where winter’s oil will come from, which drives up prices. Pretty basic stuff.
Did you see Iacono’s note on Mexican oil production? Cantarell’s output has dropped by 10% this year. Per Matt Simmons, an oilfield will drop to a fraction of it’s peak production within a year or so of maturity. If Cantarell has reached maturity, “Peak Oil” is here now.
If all these oil problems are real and converge over the next two to three years…you’d best have a plan to live on 5, maybe 10 gallons / month. I believe it was 4 or 5 gallons per month in WWII. Bike and public transit for the rest.
Bye-bye exurbs and suburbs too far from employment and shopping…
Yes, Army No. Va. I agree completely. The coming petrol crunch will favor the cities, big time.
In big cities, I can see that happening. The rest of the country…not so much. Americans define themselves by their cars and their independence and ability to live where they want, not where they have to. The city I work in is not exactly the most happening place in the world, and so a lot of people commute from bigger cities 60 miles away every day. Public transport does not exist and is not an option.
Long term, people have to live close to where they work, but short term, that’s just not gonna happen. A govt quota is a sure way to lose reelection come November.
There is one guy in San Diego who is advocating buying a home:
‘He raises his voice, gestures energetically and fires out statistics to convey his message: Now’s the time to buy a home in San Diego. ‘It’s a buyer’s market,’ says Greg Smith, ‘period.’
‘He’s perhaps San Diego’s most obscure politician. But that doesn’t mean he’s quiet. The emphatic Smith has undertaken a ‘no-bubble’ campaign to tout what he sees as a vibrant housing market at a time of great uncertainty in the industry. He speaks two to three times a week to community groups, such as Rotary clubs, and real estate industry groups. The message he proclaims: now is a good time to buy in San Diego.’
Cuff ‘em and stuff ‘em. Another one to ‘add to the list’. Leavenworth, baby!
“Smith has undertaken his campaign with the help of the local real estate industry, who pass his advice to prospective buyers and the media. First American Title Company, a property title firm, frequently disseminates an article written about Smith’s opinion entitled, “Why the real estate bubble isn’t real.”"
Gosh, do you think he gets any “donations” for his blatant schilling for the RE industry ?
“As county assessor, Smith monitors the intake of property taxes, which constitute the largest share of revenue for the county. More than one-third of the contributors to his most recent reelection campaign had ties to the real estate industry.” So, yes, he does get “donations”, it’s called “campain contributions”. In some contries they call it bribes.
have you seen his real estate holdings?
The market here is tanking. Our friend dropped his price over $50K on his 579K home to 529K and still no bites. I overheard his realtor at a party telling someone else she has 4 listings and not only no buyers out there but no lookers.
They laughed at us when we sold in Aug of 04. Realtors(friends too) looked at my wife and I as if we had testicles in the middle of our foreheads when we said we’re going to sell and then rent.
looks like 04 prices are gone too
wow, I thought it would take till xmas to get to 04 pricing
We sold in ‘03 because of a layoff and move. There are now a couple houses listed in our old hood for LESS than we got. Now we’re back in SD and ready to jump back in — when the price is right.
It takes lots of guts to sell&rent, when everyone around you believes that prices will go up forever.
At ziprealty.com I stumbled across this house in Carlsbad (north of San Diego). Owner bought the place about 10 months ago and paid $925K for 2780 sq-ft. In a few months he put the house for sale for $1.25M. Price has been reduced since then and now asking price is $900K and I doubt he would sell it at this price.
Why the hell he thought that his house deserved more than $300K appreciation in a few month.
It’s called pipe dream
House next door me, a total pig that got the full lipstick treatment, was put on the market about 6 weeks ago. I’ve only seen 2 cars the first weekend. Its worth maybe a third of what theyre asking. They do open houses every weekend and sometimes the middle of the week and have taken to buying inflatable balloons and attaching them to their signs around the neighborhood. Balloons are always there the next day, deflated - a great metaphor for this housing bubble.
I was all over North San Diego last week doing some real estate analysis and I made a few observations:
Escondido real estate is in the toilet, people who bought million dollar homes there all of the sudden have realized that they are in Escondido and they want OUT!
1) more for sale signs than I remember seeing even in 1992.
2) Almost all listing sheets outside homes in Carmel Valley and Carlsbad and Rancho Penasquitos said “reduced” or my favorite “lower than all recent comps”
3) For some reason, Santa Luz has a TON of listings but prices don’t seem to be falling much
4) Even Del Mar and Rancho Santa Fe are feeling the pinch of price declines…several friends can’t get anyone to even look at their stunning ocean view homes
5) Condos, condos, condos…sellers are getting desperate with their condos they hoped to flip. There are a million 2 bedroom condos out there.
6) New construction home prices are finally coming down and where buyers used to have to get on a list, they can walk right in and buy and close within 30 days (see Pardee homes in Carmell Valley - Pacific Ridge, Carriage Run and Pacific Highlands Ranch)
7) A sales person at a new development in Carlsbad said I could expect to see 10-15% price cuts by October if sales didn’t pick up.
I guess they finally got their summer A/C bills out there in Escondido.
“I guess they finally got their summer A/C bills out there in Escondido.”
Escondido is almost as hot as Phoenix.
Wild Animal Park hit, what, 120F two weeks ago?
Waiting patiently for the bubble pop (explosion) to reverberate and cause deflation up here in Orange County. And it will.
I found this, I am wondering what is his (Greg Smith) motivation for cheerleading the nonsense.
I am sorry I do not know how to make a link.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2006/08/07/news/02smith.txt
I love how these folks love to say how the media is painting negative pictures about the real estate markets. They sure didn’t mind the cheerleading on the way up. Just another man with an agenda with a realtor hen wife.
Everybody that wanted into the real estate boat is pretty much in. Just in time to go down with the ship.
Manias and bubbles are a psychological phenemena.
Talk is what bursts them.
Deep down even RE bulls know this, that is why they get so PISSED when RE bears point it out.
it looks like a cya statement. he knows interest rate is going up.
Check out the GF who just screwed up the comps for my area in Carlsbad….
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?city=CARLSBAD+&o=North&state=CA&zprop=16657558
Sold 3/29/06 $685000
Sold 7/20/06 $810000
WTF?!
It’s the $685k sale that’s fishy.
Look at this graph:
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=16657558
All the other sales track the 92011 prices.
$220k profit and 3.7 years is not exactly $250k profit and 2 years, but there might a fake sale hidden there somewhere?
BTW The house to the right of this one is EXACTLY the same model and the Zestimate on it is $100K cheaper…
Notice the SDCIA message board is down - did they take it off line or is it just a glitch?
Am I crazy, or did Bob Casagrand fail to use the word MEDIAN anywhere in his prepared remarks. I found it notable since we always see median and not the generic “average”. Does anyone know if this is simply a failure or precision, or if he’s gaming the numbers by using the MEAN?
Since he tends to be a straight shooter I don’t think this means anything.
LOL, it is such a joke right now in Pacific Beach. We were filling up with gas at the Shell at Grand Ave and as a joke I said look honey we are surrounded by for sale signs.
I started to count them, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10…. there was just a sea of them I stopped counting. It doesn’t seem like much until you actually start counting them, like three in a row here, another 2 there, another 3 over there, another 3 the next block in the distance.
If any of you live in the area stop and get gas on the Grand Shell, its comical. Someone should tell these people they missed the boat, and no one wants to live on the noisest street in the entire area!
I should also mention, I was only looking on Grand, I didn’t even turn around to check the other 180 degrees behind me, it could be even funnier.
you should turn around and look right by the tiny homes by mission bay high school. There are over 5 of them with for sales signs out, two of which are broken/smashed but still standing-another house with fresh graffiti on their new fence-not exactly ‘welcoming’ to open house lookie looooos
my g/f calls that area “Little TJ”. She went to HS at MB.
Hahahaha. I can’t help but laugh at those who thought this thing would only keep on going up up and up. I’m about to get into the market, but will wait until things settle a bit. Someone tell those builders to keep on building. A word of advice - Never catch a falling knife!