An ‘Educational Opportunity’ For Las Vegas Sellers
The Review Journal reports on the July numbers from Las Vegas. “The number of single-family homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service in Las Vegas climbed 1.2 percent to 20,273 in July from the previous month, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported. The inventory is up 33.6 percent from a year ago.”
“Sales dipped below 2,000 for only the third time since January 2005. They’re down 21 percent from June and 38.4 percent from a year ago. The median price of homes sold in July was $310,000, down from $315,000 in June. The price increased 1 percent from a year ago. Condos and townhomes have also experienced increasing inventory and declining prices. The median sales price in July was down 1.7 percent from June.”
“‘It’s not any better in California,’ said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. ‘I don’t see any reason for an upward tendency. We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses. We need a reversal of the trend to see more consumer confidence.’”
“GLVAR President Linda Rheinberger said he sees the market as an educational opportunity for sellers. ‘If people are not motivated to sell, or are not realistic in their expectations, we recommend that they wait until market conditions change before marketing and listing their property,’ she said.”
The LV Business Press. “Many home builders are now offering incentives to dispose of a standing inventory by paying closing costs and giving free upgrades. Such incentives aren’t necessarily reflected in the final sale price.”
“Condos and townhomes, meanwhile, saw similar softening in July with only 505 sales, which is 14.7 percent fewer than the previous month, and a 27.5 percent drop from last year, reported GLVAR.”
“Rising mortgage rates, reduced sales and increased foreclosures are forcing Las Vegas Valley home builders to revise earnings forecasts. Pulte Homes, the fourth largest builder in Southern Nevada, cut its forecast and said second-quarter profits would be down from its previous forecast.”
“A record number of foreclosures have resulted in six months’ worth of housing inventory in the valley. Nevada ranked among the nation’s top 10 foreclosure markets in the second quarter. The state had one foreclosure per every 248 households, which is a 94.6 percent increase over 2005.”
“Adjustable interest rate loans, negative amortizing and 100 percent financed mortgages were being offered by lenders during Southern Nevada’s housing boom because of the market’s high rates of appreciation. Rapid pricing escalations led many lenders to offer creative loans to investors and speculators. A market slowdown, however, is now causing some loans to default.”
“Roughly 8,000 homes currently available in Southern Nevada remain vacant, and another 2,000 are being sublet, according to Applied Analysis. It has since placed additional pressure on owners to sell given loan costs with rising interest rates and increased property taxes.”
Also from the Review Journal:
‘Mayor Oscar Goodman is figuratively flipping off those who want to flip land after they get downtown condominium projects approved. ‘I don’t like the fact that they’re taking advantage of us,’ the Las Vegas mayor said. ‘They’re making representations to us that they’re going to build a certain product, and they have no intention to do so.’
‘Towers are tough to build right now with labor and construction costs, and I don’t think the market can absorb all those units right now,’ said Paul Freed, a co-owner of the 702 Group. Freed said his company fully intended to build the two projects when it received approval late in 2005 and early this year. But rising costs scuttled those plans, and now the projects are on the market for sale or a joint venture.’
Where is Las Vegas Landlord to remind me what a Genius and tough guy the mayor is ?
I guess he is getting flipped (off) by the mayor…
LV Landlord is a she. If she HAD been a “he”, LV Landlord would be emmasculated by now.
Mo Money / Getstucco — I love it that, one by one, the antagonists on this board have disappeared into the slime of their underwater reality. The inverse is not true — whomever among us has antagonized the bull boards for the past couple of years has no reason to let up. My personal favorite was Homeowner_MA; most of has a favorite. I never fully understood why they bothered to come here — I’ve not wasted one minute trying to convince anyone on a bull board about the crash. I look forward to the play-by-play recounts, after this crash has run its course. That is when Ben Jones will be revered by all those who did not tune in, to appreciate his efforts here, along the way.
You’re going to revere a guy just because he started a blog? Wow, I guess my standards are way too high! I was thinking of maybe just a beer if I ever see him. Stella Artois if he’s mellow and low-key, Coor’s if he’s arrogant and me-me-me-me. But hey, I guess maybe I’m just cheap like that.
I liked BeaConst the best, with his circle of MIT geniuses who knew better than any of us how the real estate market would keep going up and up forever…
2244. “You can only eat one steak at a time.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
2245. “I’ll bet on a cockroach.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
2246. “Casinos weren’t built on people winning money.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
2247. “Never waste a prayer on something that isn’t important.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
2248. “If you’ve never had it, you don’t miss it.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
2249. “If you don’t make them an offer they can’t refuse, you aren’t going to close the deal.” - Oscar Goodman, Mayor of Las Vegas
I submitted a link to Ben’s blog kudo in MSNBC to http://www.digg.com — pls. vote for him there, so to speak.
Ben’s guest spot on that PODCAST of a few weeks ago was alos great. Has everyone heard it? I’d post the link again but can’t find it. Highly recommended listening.
Missed it?
The last show I listened to with Ben was the SD show with the lawyer last year.
-
http://moneybloggerpodcast.blogspot.com/2006/07/episode-27-interview-with-ben-jones-of.html
‘I don’t see any reason for an upward tendency. We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses. We need a reversal of the trend to see more consumer confidence.’”
Seriously. When are we going to get a break on the nasty interest rates we’ve been living with for years! The fed has no heart for the poor home flipper.
Yes, lower those rates so we can scam as many people as possible into loans they’ll never be able to pay back. What we really need is for prices to drop back in line with incomes, and if he even gave a little tiny sh*t he would say so. But it’s all about propping the bubble, and this comment proves it.
It’s also about blaming the Fed when the bubble inevitably pops…
“It’s normal for sales to be slow during the summer,” she said.
______________________________________
Dumb a$$ they are 38% slower than last year!
“It’s normal for sales to be slow during the summer,” she said.
Double Dumb aSS…when does she think sales historically happen….Christmas?
I second that “double dumb ass”. Sales usually increase from the end of school in May/June through August because those folks with kids are looking to buy and move during that time anticipating that they will be in the new place before school registration begins. It’s easier (and makes more sense) to do this when the kids are out of school. Some of them may even begin looking in April thinking that they may not find anything until June or so. She knows that. She was just trying to see if the reader was awake.
BayQT~
Yes they’ve softened,dropped,tumbled,moderated,crashed,declined,paused, tanked,burned; you’ve got the picture. The sales decline is ‘balanced’ (with apologies to L.A-Y.)
1% YOY. But LV is different. Everyone wants to live there!??!?!
“ever know anybody who lost money in Las Vegas Real Estate”?, my brother-in-law in 2004!
Answer: Yes..YOU!
That 8000 empty units on resales is a huge number!
Then there is another large number of 2nd home buyers from CALI!That never visit their property.
Hope they can make their mortgage & tax payments!
“We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses.”
Never mind home prices should drop, we need lower rates. I guess long term fixed rates in the mid 6% range is way to friggin’ high. Idiot!
Silly rabbit, real estate never goes down.
To paraphrase the old saying, “lower rates in one hand, lower prices in the other, which one will fill up faster.”
I would bet the median is actually lower YOY if you factor in the seller paid closing costs, interest rate buy down, incentive, etc…
Wow..I’ve never seen so many listing in craiglist for LV. This agent alone has 3 empty houses for sale, with comment like “Please send us an offer”
http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/rfs/191607508.html
” BRING THE FUSIEST BUYER ”
No comprede Amigo, got a dictionary for whatever dialect it is that you’re speaking ?
Probably a vague reference to the pre-razor era.
It means “Don’t bring buyers with short fuses.”
FUZZY maybe
Occam’s razor, bring the fussiest buyer. Easyt to miss that extra letter and the whole thing makes sense.
How do you fit 5 bedrooms and 4 baths in 2300 sq ft?
How do you fit 5 bedrooms and 4 baths in 2300 sq ft?
Carefully.
-
like trying to fit 10 pounds of shiit into a 5 pound bag.
In other words, a blivet.
Walk out finished basement?
5 br & 4 baths in 2300 sq ft = No living room, small family room, probably only one dining area, and all secondary bedrooms are 10 X 10 ft.
Assuming the garage space is not counted, and that 3 out of the 4 bathrooms are half-bathrooms (say 2 x ensuites on 1st floor and a utility bathroom on the ground floor), I could easily design a livable (albeit maybe not lavish) house within that space constraint.
And it would be a heck of a lot cheaper to heat and cool than the average McMansion.
Desperation is written all over that ad, yet they failed to post any pictures of the place or details about the rooms. Mistake.
BayQT~
wisdom from the wizard.
1)since the fed stopped raising rate, at least temporarily, they can’t blame on rate hike as the reason for bubble burst. bubble burst is due to herd psychology as we all know.
2) since there is a temporary rate freeze, there is even less reason to buy now. realtors can’t claim that buy now or face higher rate.
3)builders have been selling with added loss in term of upgrades, closing cost paid for , etc. so there is a nationwide attempt by builders and realtors to prop up prices for as long as possible.
well what do you guys think?
There’s still a large percentage of the population that hasn’t even reach the denial stage. Their in the clueless stage. Wait till they get a reality check. It’s going to get even worse next year, Arm resets, foreclosures, hemmoraging flippers. We’re still very early into this downturn. We just went over the peak this year.
“When expectations meet reality, reality always wins”.
I don’t think people really realized how many flippers there were out there . Now that regular folk know that the flippers were taking up alot of the supply of houses ,they now know there isn’t a shortage of houses .
I think that there’s alot of speculative activity by non-flippers too. Buying a retirement house a few years before anticipated retirement, not putting a sell-the-old-house contengency in the contract for the move-up that you’re buying etc..
“We’re still very early into this downturn.” This is to say the least! It is my feeling in Ventura, Simi Valley and “The Valley” we are at least 6 months behind the LV Curve.
From what I can gather transactions have come to a near halt yet the sellers still demand “Top Dollar” for their houses? This is still a massive wave moving West to the larger LA area.
The common thread is the “funny money” loans etc. They will adjust and POP….. Yet here they are still spiting into the wind?
Do any of the locals or others see it diffrent in this location?
best John
(I was wrong about there being no rate increase this time) I think that what now will sink in to the real estate, lending and building industries is that a Fed funds rate increase this week was not needed, to sink the housing market. The hole in the boat is as wide as the scar in the Titanic because of the adjustable-rate loan re-sets that are “pouring in” just as fast, and just as inexorably, as that Arctic water almost a century ago.
Does anyone know someone who lives or has lived in one these condos in LAS? what has been their experience? I can see how condos can be attractive in a densley populated urban core, but was is the real draw to a Vegas condo? It’s not like people will sell their cars, move into condos and walk to the store, post office, bank, casino, etc. Personally, it seems like a condo in Vegas would be a pain in the a$$ to live in: bad traffic, bad neighorboods, etc.
Better to live near the casinos so you don’t have to drive drunk.
“‘It’s not any better in California,’ said Dennis Smith,
Looks like we’ve moved from “It’s different here” to “It’s no different there”. Is this progress?
Like going from 5th grade to 6th.
I don’t see any reason for an upward tendency. We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses. We need a reversal of the trend to see more consumer confidence.’”
Normally I don’t type in all CAPS, but…
ARE THEY F@CKING NUTS?
C’mon people…let’s not get too crazy now…do they not realize the resulting higher prices caused by the easy money is a real detriment to folks? I’d rather have a sky high rate and much smaller principal to pay off (or even prepay)..ok, ok I’ll suck on a bar of Irish Spring for speaking such foul language as prepay…
On the other hand, I’d be a little more supportive of lower 15 or 30 yr fixed rates, if they came with very tight lending standards (income, down payment, reserves, A paper quality).
Agreed, at least you can always refi a high fixed rate mortgage, if rates go down. All common sense was turned upside down the last couple years. Manias convince people that things are different now. At it work as long as the mania continues. But once the pyramid starts to crumble, it’s like rat’s leaving a sinking ship.
One of the best postings here ever was in response to this question.
I am paraphrasing the poster.
I have been a homeowner for almost 30 years.
In all my years of homeownership, I have received hundreds maybe thousands of offers from all kinds of companies to refinance my mortgage.
You know one of the odd things, my current mortgage company has never called me to lower the amount that I owe.
If that original poster is still here, I apologize for butchering your post.
I have, but I was suprised. It is a major lender that mailed me to lower my rate by one point. Guess they did not want me jumping ship.
But they didn’t offer to reduce the principal!
4037 Via Valmonte , Palos Verdes Estates, California 90274-1408 $1,795,000*
Status: ACT Orig Price: $1,999,000
price reduction 204,000.
Does this mean a buyer could have paid 204,000 more for this property prior a day before reduction? or would seller have told buyer they were thinking of lowering price?
you have to wonder.
Still $1M too high. We’ll be seeing a lot more reductions before this PoS eventually reverts to the lender that took the risk…
According to Zillow, it last sold for $951,000 in October 2004.
Ridiculous.
Careful Stanley….I have sold quite a few jobs for custom cabinets on Via Valmonte. They easily spend from 50k to 150k for these cabinets. Of course that includes installation and they are ready for granite tops.
Great interview in Newsweek Ben!!!
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14252223/
Good looking dude!
Well, yes, he is, now that I realize you meant Jones and not Bernanke/
As Mr. Burns would say to Smithers, “who is that young firebrand?”!
Excellent coverage - I hope it leads to bigger and better opportunities for Ben. You the man, dude!
(or, el Duderino if you’re not into the whole brevity thing)
Great to see you getting some face time in the national media!
Dig the bunker Ben blogs from!
Heh. Ben’s posting from a heavily-fortified compound in Flagstaff, self-contained with a separate generator and solar power?
Could’ve given the masses a little more religion, though.
“… [this] is not going to be as bad as some people might want to make it out to be.
No, it’s going to be worse!
There’s no way to know for sure but the way it’s going, and considering how much this economy is dependent on housing now, it could very easily be much much worse. What the TX bust had going against it was basically a blind eye from the government. If this turns out to be a national bust expect a lot of attention from the Fed and the USG. That could be why Ben has reservations about the severity of the downturn.
What has to re-connect, eventually, is the difference between price and underlying fundamentals.
I think that Ben fell victim to the soft pedaling the media about the downturn that most recent bearish on housing economists have found (Thornburg).
It is in the media rulebook, the negative impacts are always everywhere else but in the town you are being interviewed in.
Newsweek is national so one can’t be too bearish.
But it could also be a warning that the Templeton style bears (90% declines) probably won’t be right.
Awwww come on guys, geez give Ben a break. What do you want him to do put on a tin foil hat with a signal boosting clothes hanger antenna and make a complete jacka$$ of himself in the national media?. He called it like he saw it. He did exactly what he does on this blog everyday no more no less. You have to appreciate that.
I think he did a damn good interview.
I don’t disagree, just a little ribbing.
There are some tinfoil hat wearers here and hell even Templeton qualifies with his comments about 90% RE declines and fearing for civilization. And he is a retired investing genius.
The old man just got a little too old, still rich but too old to be making pronouncements like that.
Exactly.
My “Exactly” is with regard to mrincomestream’s comments above.
Sunset also has the right idea too wrt Templeton. Though I’d be less inclined to blame it on being “old.”
Ben’s a pro, no doubt about it.
I’ve kidded him before about his optimistic nature, although it’s something we actually have in common (believe it or not).
Anyone who would ignore John Templeton is the tinfoil hat wearer.
Levels of debt are greater than in ‘29. But we’re smarter than they were….not.
Mark has made my point for me.
Only if you are John Templeton should you make a comment that RE will decine by 90%.
Agreed, mrincomestream, I think some bloggers here think “Armageddon” but economic slowdown/recession is just that and it sounds like Ben has been through a similar (though more localized) thing in 80’s Texas and knows it is survivable.
Personally, I am just grateful there was someplace to go to read the opinions of like minded people when the rest of the world was thinking “Must buy a house” and I was thinking, “Has the world gone nuts?, Maybe it’s me, maybe I’m nuts for thinking there is something wrong.” There were a few articles out at the time, Dean Bakers - “There goes the neighborhood” for one, and then….nothing. If not for Ben’s blog, I would have felt completely alone.
It’s good to see Ben get recognition for a job well done. He along with all of you certainly saved my sanity.
“… [this] is not going to be as bad as some people might want to make it out to be.”
I was surprised to read that too. Wondering where I went astray on that one.
Congrats Ben, nice Q&A… maybe a little to nice!
OT…
Anybody see NVR today… with after hours they were down about 9% today…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=NVR
Probably as a result of Comstock HB earnings today… another big player in the DC market.
Go Ben!!
I get the impression that your remarks were somewhat edited though?
Good article Ben!
I didn’t know you were in Sedona! Damn, dude, can I come visit?
Do you have one of the 5 jobs in town that pays above minimum wage?
EXCELENTE!!
Ben,
Good interview, and I am especially relieved to hear that you don’t think the sky is going to fall on us
GS
Wow! Congratulations, Ben!
Nice, Nice, Nice, Congratulations, Ben!
Great Interview.
I have recommended your blog to my friends interested in RE, and all of them love it.
Good for you..
vindication and validation…
Rob — thanks for posting that Link of the Year.
“I decided to keep going because it seemed to matter to people…”
That is your typically understated, sef-effacing style, Ben. Heck yes, it mattered to us — in my case, more than I’ll ever be able to thank you for. Man, you have a true legion of followers — some outspoken and rafts of lurkers who have profited, or will, from your work on this blog.
What a great tribute to you, Ben. The first of many, I’m sure.
Great coverage. Congratulations!
Ben:
You should put the link on the first page of your blog. Many of your bloggers may not be aware of it.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14252223/
Congraulations!!! Thanks for not throwing in the towel on us!!
Well deserved attention, Ben. I’ve been a faithful reader since discovering you last year in the L.A. Times article, and have given your link to many friends. You really are performing a great service that the media should be, but arent’ because they are on the take from RE. Keep it going!
Man that LA Times article brought out a couple of angry bulls, let’s hope Newsweek does the same. We need some fresh meat!
The bulls are licking their wounds now and in full retreat. Even the national boobs-or-the year, DL & LAY, are about to surrender. The fun is over once the bubble hit newsweek and time. All that remains now is to measure the scale of the declines…
Uhhh, I assume there is more to be done. At some point I’m guessing most readers here will want to get back into RE.
superb!
I also found this blog through the LATimes story last year.
Good to see you getting some more press, Ben. You’re doing a great job, keep up the good work!
Congratulations Ben!
I dug out a link to my first post back at the ‘original’ site. Check it out at my place, if you’re interested.
Like everyone else, I just want to say a big thank you to Ben, and congratulations for getting the recognition you deserve.
As well as Ben, the quality is down to the generally well informed and civilised discussion promoted by the users, so I guess you all share some of the credit - Ben’s blog wouldn’t be the same without you all too.
I have recommended this blog to many people, from economists to commercial property investors to private equity people, many of whom are clients or in serious positions of influence and never once have I felt anything other than delight in sharing what is, I think, a fantastic resource.
Finally, Ben, if you are ever in London, England, I’ll buy you dinner. Just let me know.
Regards,
Loafer
Congratulations on the national attention. And thanks for sticking with it. Thanks to your family too for standing by you (and the blog) while you put your all into this.
Alright Ben!! Congratulations on some well deserved kudos!
Great article. I love this quote:
“I often hear people talk about seeing a glass half-full, or half-empty. Personally, I don’t think that has a place in economic observations. I just want to know what’s in the glass.”
You’ve provided an excellent service by shining a light on that glass. Although I only discovered it within the past few months, I’ve found it extremely helpful and informative. A sensible harbor in a sea of insanity.
That was a friggin great quote
Ditto on the congrats, Ben! Your blog has been a daily read for me for 7 months now, and has eased me and my family into a prudent path toward resumed home-ownership.
Well Done Ben . I bet more people are going to tune in .Can’t wait to read your book .
Ben, you have provided such a tremendous service for so many of us here. It’s terrific to see you get some public recognition. I think a lot of people don’t realize how much work you have to put into this blog. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!
Congratulations, Ben!
I’m gonna chime in here as well, Ben. HUGE congratulations! Recognition very well deserved. I initially found Patrick.net’s site when searching for answers to my housing questions, but when someone there mentioned your blog, I came over to take a peek….that was over a year ago. Been here ever since. :-)Wonderful job, Ben. And many thanks to ALL the sharp contributors. All of you guys/gals are awesome.
BayQT~
It can be assumed that most RE agents and their sellers do not have a clue about basic economics let alone the real estate market. Americans hold record mortgage debt in a declining housing market and now face decades of payments on houses that will soon be worth less than they paid for them. They are in serious trouble and they are not an insignificant bunch of home owners.
It is noteworthy to say that since 2003 mortgages have made up more than half of the total bank loans in America. More than $300 billion in 2005 alone. Without that growing demand,banks would have seen almost no net loan growth in recent years. OUCH! It appears with rising interest reates, we are headed for TOUGH times for the near future. Many new buyers and filppers who do not know what kind of loans they sign their life away on will be in serious trouble.
If home equity loans added $200 billion to the economy in 2004 alone we could be in a serious contraction in the near future. What is the FED to do? BB has his work cut out for him.
A Hoboken NJ Realtor has some interesting comments about a Toll Brothers project. It looks like sales are pretty slow.
http://tinyurl.com/mmwwh
A 2BR condo with a decnt view and not much else, for a little over $1,000 sq.ft. Such a deal???
OT
Good to see you on msnbc.com Ben….
Glad to see you finally getting some recognition for your efforts on this site!
“GLVAR President Linda Rheinberger said he sees the market as an educational opportunity for sellers. ‘If people are not motivated to sell, or are not realistic in their expectations, we recommend that they wait until market conditions change before marketing and listing their property,’ she said.”
For example, stubborn sellers who are unwilling to lower their price to market value may get the opportunity to learn the price trend is not your friend in a real estate bust.
I view this more as a plea to keep the inventory from increasing.
“Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.”
- Ben Franklin
Ben:
I don’t usually post over here, I’m a “Jersey” girl, but that Newsweek article was just as fine and sweet as a Texas rose. Good work!
Of course, you can always count on “one of us” for a whining complaint, so here it is. No butt was whooped. That’s the problem with those mainstreams. No butt whoopings.
Ben,
Just read your online interview “Bubble Blog” on Newsweek Business with Kathy Jones.
Congratulations you achievement.
Keep up the great work!!!
Check out this flyer I got from the major Realtor in our area. On the back is a sad face saying:
“Time to roll back prices if you really want to get your house from JUST LISTED to SOLD!”
Sweet.
http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i147/rdward/lower_prices.jpg
That is a great scan.
I wonder if it can go into the HBB slideshow?
” We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses.” How about lower prices!!!!
For the first time I can recall, I read in the local paper (across the river from Mpls/StPaul) that said rising interest —-and higher prices were causing a slow down in sales. Finally some acknowledgement that prices may play a part. I don’t think things will be as bad here because there hasn’t been as much neg/am, 100% nmd so prices probably didn’t rise as much.(IT’S DIFFERENT HERE lol) However, no doubt refi has been high to take advantage of lower interest and some appreciation. And at least one county next to mine won’t issue any more permits till they get rid of some of new housing inventory. They definitely went crazy on building spec houses. I would say housing is running 3.5 to 4.5 times median household income, but I am patiently waiting for something better.
I was a little surprised by your “end result” prediction. Interesting…
Yeah, me too.
Wow!
Score one for the good guys.
Congrats Ben.
Why are they paying attention to us now?
The idea of the book based on the blog is tremendous because it represents the true paradigm shift that the Internet can provide that was so touted and exploited in the late 90’s. Your book could be quite timely if the right perspective is utilized.
The education in how the related industries function along with many approaches to economic theory (thank you all who take the time to share and educate) is priceless! Related discussion is rich in added value and qualifying facts in a way John Q Public rarely has access to.
I think blogging is going to turn out to be the big news. All the different view points add up to good information. 5 stars on the feed back for your interview Ben!!
It sure nice to see I wasn’t all alone about this housing bubble.
Ben! Hard work and long hours does pay off with kudos for a great write up. I keep comparing the solid info of investing from your blog vs. CNBC’s Krammer, and pinch myself that people actually trust this clown’s advice with their investment dollars. They can’t or won’t believe the facts and figures presented by your blog.
I switched from investing in real estate 5 months ago and into put options on homebuilders. My family and friends are still into real estate, and I sleep a whole lot better than they do. Thanks!
“We need to see lower rates in both adjustable and fixed rates to help people qualify for these houses.”—-how about lower prices??? Why do they think rates are the only variable in this equation. The auto industry had to do both 0% and cash back/rebates ie. lower pricing. Of course there are “incentives” on new housing but the older stuff is going to have to come down.
Don’t think I’m in quite as “bubbly” area here, (east of Mpls/StP) but still looking for at least a 20% down on existing housing. So many developments/spec houses on the market, there not issuing any more permits till some of it sells.
“It’s different here because not everyone wants to live here lol.”
The LV Business Press. “Many home builders are now offering incentives to dispose of a standing inventory by paying closing costs and giving free upgrades. Such incentives aren’t necessarily reflected in the final sale price.”
I like the choice of words: “dispose of a standing inventory”
Is that sort of like a standing rib roast that’s too well done (ie toast)?? Ben, when you’re in National Review, then I’ll clap my other hand. hehehehehehe
Just saw a Cops episode from Boston. They had a call to check out some skydivers dressed as Elvis that had been blown off course. Apparently two fell in the water, and two on land (not where they were intending to land). At least one seemed injured fairly significantly.
Alas: the reason for the flying Elvises in Boston? Hyping up a condominium development’s grand opening!
I…can’t…help falling in shrub with you.
i almost spit coffee on that one!
LOL. This is a great news article /analogy .The housing boom was all show , throwing people off course, and alot of people are going to end up under water . I wouldn’t buy in that condo development ,even if they gave them away .
I know that Flying Elvii sure put *me* in a home-buying mood…
CONGRATS BEN,U HELPED CONVINCE ME TO SALE MY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY STARTER HOME….THIS BLOG HELPED CONVINCE ME,TAKE MY OVER 500K PROFIT ON A HOME 200 FEET FROM THE VENTURA FREEWAY….I NOW RENT,AND AM TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF MY BUBBLE MONEY……
200 ft from the freeway in Studio City - LMFAO! No one could convince me to rent a dump there for 1 month let alone pay money to own an albatross like that. Man, you got majorly lucky that you found that GF. You should have tried to sell him Indonesia while you had his attention.
That could easily go to $0.
DUDE.
SHUT the F-UP!!!!
I coulda bought the townhome i rent in 2004 but didnt because was scared the market would crash, boy was I wrong! Someone please convince me i did the right thing because I am kicking myself right now. I would’ve had over $60k in equity gains instead Im still just a stupid renter. the market here in Tucson AZ just keeps going up & up
Patience patience. Don’t even look and tempt yourself until ‘08.
Only $60K? Don’t bother kicking yourself over that.
>>>the market here in Tucson AZ just keeps going up & up
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=1205179&trail=180
A person with a sense of humor. have you read the link? It seesm a few people from the sdcia bought in Tucson and can’t sell for profit now. I think the houses are too far out from the city. By Colosal cave I think near the 10. They do have some rarer cactus out there though! I hope they didn’t bulldoze them up for houses nobody needed?
Smell a troll, anyone?
Yep, it’s a troll come late to the party…
No midi has been around… I say still wait. read the sdcia link on Tucson. you’ll be better off renting for the next few years.
I’m another person saved from a poor real estate decision by this blog. It was great to see the national recognition, and I thought Ben let the facts speak for themselves, as ususal.
“coupled with a background in corporate accounting”
now we know how he takes apart those numbers for the homebuilders and the like.
hello from germany,
tol and wci are out with numbers
highlight: wci towerorders down 89%!!!!!!!
operating cashflow minus 341 m$ in 05 minus 178 m$!!!!!( if i have read it right)
my summary for tol and wci here
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/wci-builder-von-condos-in-florida.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/toll-brothers-tol.html
hello from germany
tol and wci are out with numbers.
highlight: wci towerorders down 89%!
and if i´m reading i right the operating cashfolw ist minus 341m$
in 05 178m$!
my summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/wci-builder-von-condos-in-florida.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/toll-brothers-tol.html
Congrats Ben, your tenacity and insightfulness to this whole RE mess has paid off. Your blog and those who patron this board has opened my eyes on how easy it is to get “caught up” in a herd mentality. I can speak with boldness because information provided here has given me confidence in the decision making process in dealing with real estate today. The market looks very very bleak coming down the stretch and I’m thankful I held out. Noone wants to see someone’s demise caused by this debacle but at the same time, YOU MUST USE COMMON HORSE SENSE when making financial decisions that affect your lives and your family’s lives and well being.
BUYER BEWARE!
Bearishgirl