‘Dealing With The Present, Not The Past’ In New York
A pair of reports from New York. “Home prices in July in Dutchess County returned to an upward path, but the pace of gain is generally slower than it was a year ago. ‘We’re leveling out, somewhat, but we’re not hurting by any stretch of the imagination,’ said Sandy Tambone, executive officer of the service.”
“Dutchess’ June numbers showed a drop in price compared to June 2005. Sales of attached single-family homes, including condos, townhouses and co-ops, fell 27.1 percent. The Realtors’ report for Ulster showed a 21 percent drop.”
“Anita Drake, broker-owner at in Wappingers Falls, said the housing market has become very price-sensitive. ‘Price is everything right now,’ she said. Drake said buyers are being more cautious and have more to choose from. The inventory of Dutchess homes in July 1 rose 581 to 2,154, 36.9 percent higher than a year ago and apparently a new record.”
The Daily Star. “Things have certainly changed in the housing market over the past year. ‘Last year was probably my best year on record,” said Robert Lawrence, broker-owner in Stamford. ‘This year will probably be my worst year. My charts are way down.’”
“‘We’re seeing a large decrease from last year,’ Lawrence said. ‘It’s almost an 180-degree turn.’” “More than 60 percent of the counties that report sales to multiple-listing services had a decrease in sales between June 2005 and this June. Barbara Roberts, broker-owner in Oneonta, said prices have probably dropped about 10 percent from the peak.”
“The ‘housing bubble’ hasn’t necessarily burst, at least not in this area, brokers said. ‘I don’t think there is a housing bubble (in this area),’ said Carl Cohen, broker-owner in Oneonta. ‘It really comes down to what the motivation of the seller is,’ she said. ‘If selling your home is a priority, you do what you have to do to get it sold.’”
“The balance has changed and is starting to become more level, said Salvatore Prividera Jr., spokesman for the association. ‘Certainly, the market has slowed down statewide,” Prividera said. ‘The number of sales remains very strong when you put it in a historical perspective,’ Prividera said. The housing market had started to pick up in 1995, he said.”
“Roberts said it can be difficult for sellers to adjust or adapt to the cooling prices. Lawrence said that is hard for some sellers to understand. Some sellers haven’t paid attention to what’s going on in the market, he said.”"‘They heard so-and-so got that much,’ Lawrence said. ‘They think they can get that much.’”
“It’s just not realistic for sellers to expect the same rate of return their friends were getting a year ago, he said. ‘What you want (to look at when setting a price) is what happened in the last three months,’ Lawrence said. ‘You’re dealing with the present, not the past.’”
‘Last year was probably my best year on record,” said Robert Lawrence, broker-owner in Stamford. ‘This year will probably be my worst year. My charts are way down.’
And this will probably be the shortest real estate downturn in history, right after the longest and most inflationary boom ever.
I’m sorry, why will this be the shortest RE downturn in history?
Do you expect some mighty inflation next year?
I believe GetStucco was being facetious.
I think you are right
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060811/economy.html?.v=6
Retail sales up in July. Why did the FED pause again?
They paused because they are aiming for a soft landing, like the one that Greenspan engineered in 1995. But it is not likely to work, because 1995 was a point in economic history when the economy had recently endured a painful recession, unemployment was relatively high, productivity was rising, the dollar was strengthening, and inflationary pressures were relatively low.
We have the reverse situation now — building inflationary pressures coupled with falling productivity and unemployment below NAIRU — and I suspect that we will soon discover the Phillips curve relation is not defunct, but has simply been in hibernation during the abnormal macroeconomic conditions fostered by a sequence of two massive bubbles (tech stocks, then housing).
Robert Gordon, a prominent macroeconomist at Northwestern University, has weighed in to suggest the cost to economy of meeting Bernanke’s inflation targets is likely to be 3 million jobs. But this is Gordon’s “best case” scenario, which does not factor in the feedback effect into the real estate market. The interaction between the labor market and the housing market will get very ugly, as a national inventory glut has already led to home price falling off from record levels of unaffordability, even before the national media has reported the slightest hint that a recession may be on the way. When prospective buyers have to weigh the risk of job loss and falling home prices into their purchase decisions, then the rate of home price deceleration will pick up considerably. Which leads me to anticipate that discussion of inflation targets will be excised from the Fed’s dialogue for the next couple of years…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060811/news_1b11econ.html
GS- You are just a bundle of cheer this morning!
Thanks for the good post.
Retail sales up. But with what? More and more and more debt.
That’s why there is a pause. Bernanke and his bunch of stupid corrupt bankers, these monkkeys, are scared and terrified by the debt levels everywhere. Did you know that in the UK, a person goes bankrupt every minute. 1440 persons per day!
The anglo-saxon economies are sick, crazy and out of control!
yes, and the UK also had very good retail sales numbers lately. Just like the Netherlands, where bankruptcies have been on the rise as well for 5 years or so. The general public happily keeps spending more and goes deeper into debt every day. And in both these EU countries (and a few others) home prices keep rising despite rising mortgage rates and despite the fact that prices have been extremely unaffordable for years. It’s all about easy money…
Last year was my record year, and Aug 05 was my record month. Each month this year I keep breaking records……on the down side. By the end of the year my YOY comparison will be laughable. No pity for me, though. My tree is full of acorns…..I saw this comin’.
nnvm, Aug 05 was when the last hotel room / condo project i was working on sld out at $850+ / sq ft.
I looked at that then as the top and still do.
I work in this town. The only thing that’s “different” here is that it’s cheaper than Greenwich which means that it has a remote chance of a “soft landing”.
Note the word “remote”.
All the fancy buildings “downtown” (all three of them, and when I say three, I mean literally three) are only a few blocks away from the projects.
What is this guy smoking?
*****We are different*****
“The ‘housing bubble’ hasn’t necessarily burst, at least not in this area, brokers said.
‘I don’t think there is a housing bubble (in this area),’ said Carl Cohen, broker-owner in Oneonta.
prices went up in July ? my a_s
the retail sales number is up ? are we looking at a UK type RE market ?
opinions
Maybe people are pulling out the last bit of equity or maxing their
little plastic cards.
I strongly suspect that the transactions still going through the loop must be the fraudulent ones… basically someone has a scheme going where they all sell to someone who will declare bankruptcy eventually and they all will then support the bankrupt person with their ill-gotten gains, that or other schemes and the complete idiots, the only reason why you still have transaction volume and rising prices despite the fact I have not, except for one or two complete morons, met anyone lately besides a real estate agent who actually wants to buy something.
A house that I personally own is under contract to be sold September 15th. One key to this is that the contract was signed in May and the buyer put down some earnest money at that time. She put down a second (required) deposit of earnest money on August 15th. Actually there are other sales happening in this area, as well. (Deer Isle, Maine.) I don’t know WHY really. Do they think the bubble-burst won’t reach here? I think it will. But it hasn’t. …
Maz
Just the other day I talked to a clueless lady who bought a fixer upper for 5% off the asking and thought she got a deal because her MIL told her she’d better buy before she’s priced out etc.
Plan is to refinace next year to make repairs. Can’t fix it up now as they had to borrow the downpayment money and are tapped out.
There are still GF’s out there lurking about.
“‘We’re seeing a large decrease from last year,’ Lawrence said. ‘It’s almost an 180-degree turn.’”
I’m seeing that 180-degree turn myself, in the long-term stock price chart of any of the Wall-Street-listed home builders. Like in other market crashes of historical proportions, the stock market has again proved to be a reliable leading indicator this time.
http://tinyurl.com/7r8fg
TOL stock is in bungee jump mode yet again this morning. One of these days, I suspect the cord is not going to hold…
http://tinyurl.com/ghbsr
The subprime lenders are tanking: LEND, CFC …
FNM is another story, hope the NY will investigate.
FNM definitely has outstanding plunge protection. Any other for-profit company on the planet would have seen its stock price plummet not to mention its stock delisted from the NYSE for continued failure to produce financials.
That is one ugly chart. I suspect all the insiders bailed along time ago and now are cruising their yachts around with beautiful women.
The point on the chart when the 180 degree turn from straight up to straight down took place coincides with August 2005, when Robert Toll and other top managers at the major homebuilders were cashing in their shares at a record pace. But I am sure the timing was mere coincidence, similar to the uncanny timing of option grants to executives at many major Wall Street players, such as Apple Crapple…
http://tinyurl.com/jl999
That Poughkeepsie Journal story is a convoluted mess. In order to get some sense of the market you have to read the story three times. Putting the average price of SFHs ahead of median also is a unique choice. But then you don’t get a positive headline without doing that. This article is either a shill piece (most likely) or just shoddy.
Either way, if the editor of the story worked for me he’d be gone.
I think I’ve finally dicovered ause for lawyers as something other than chum. An enterprising barrister should start collecting “different here” comments and sue for giving financial advice. Can’t you just see a jury of 12 local homeowners at the trial? Lawyer;”You mean to say you made $20,000 from a transaction made on your advice and the result was bankruptcy for your client? Is it true that you told your client how to qualify for a loan you knew they didn’t really deserve? Is it true that your setting a new price record in this neighborhood doubled taxes for nearby properties like thhose owned be these fine jurors?… Oh dear, your honor, could you get the bailiff to stop pointing his gun at the acussed? I just had this suit cleaned and I have a feew more questions.”
sweet- you’ll see it soon
http://www.handelonthelaw.com/RadioQuestions.aspx
http://www.casepost.com/questionnaire/213
Try above two sites. a few complaints here and there might lead to a class action and get some of these attorneys seeing green.
http://www.casepost.com/
I wrote and asked if they could research sales of property for LAY, lereah or Watson or especially their family members/in-laws in last year or if any new purchases were made after a sale.
I made a comment similar on a post yesterday and it was lost. I’m not a litigator, so I have no vested interest in any lawsuits, but when savvy lawyers start putting together class-action lawsuits, you’ll see verdicts. Big ones. Probably against appraisal companies, brokerage firms, maybe realtors and their shills. This has been discussed several times on other threads. I’m not advocating, just MHO.
We are treading ground I’ve personally never seen. Be interesting to see what sorts of lawsuits prevailed in Florida in the late 1920’s.
‘The number of sales remains very strong when you put it in a historical perspective,’ Prividera said. The housing market had started to pick up in 1995, he said.”
..You’re exactly correct sir..Decade over decade numbers are up..
…They just won’t stop the spin will they?
When they stop the spin and fear and gloom are pervasive, it will be time to look for a bottom
Wait until it gets to be COC (Century over century). He is a fly. Where is my swatter?
There were century-over-century declines in Roman real estate prices from about the second century until the seventeenth century. Would have loved to hear the spin from Davidus Lereaus circa 1500.
Things did take a bit of a tumble there where the Visigoths engaged in their own brand of “urban renewal.”
and even more so after the plague hit medieval Europe …
(bird flue, anyone?)
(I work in this town. The only thing that’s “different” here is that it’s cheaper than Greenwich which means that it has a remote chance of a “soft landing”.)
This article refers to Stamford, New York, in the West Catskills.
Stamford, NY — isn’t that all second homes?