‘You Don’t Have To Overpay Any Longer’
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. In Massachusetts, “The Newburyport real estate market is faring better than Essex County or the state as a whole, but homes here are staying on the market longer, creating an inventory bubble that is giving buyers more negotiating power, according to market data and real estate experts.”
“‘At the height of the dot.com boom, many of the suddenly wealthy purchased property in the waterfront villages of Essex County, often replacing modest homes with million-dollar mansions,’ the Forbes article reads. ‘But those wealthy tenants have gone the way of the economy, leaving vacant, and very expensive, homes lingering on the market.”
“Home builders are clinging to metro Atlanta’s market stability like storm-tossed sailors. Already, a flock of busy construction cranes are transforming the urban skyline with sleek, steely perches. ‘You’ve got a lot of condos coming up,’ said economist Donald Ratajczak. ‘I don’t know that we’re going to be able to absorb it without some concessions.’”
“President Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Mr. Guynn addressed the Council on in Atlanta. ‘I remember a longtime Fed policymaker, a veteran observer of housing cycles, used to describe the housing industry as a big group of independent thinkers. Regardless of the warning signs, he observed that each developer, builder, or lender would decide there’s room enough for one more project, his or her project, of course.”
“At the same time, dozens of others in the same business in the same markets were making the same decisions.”
The Palm Beach Post. “Mortgage broker David P. writes that, ‘The real issue is that there has been such an influx of new agents and new mortgage brokers with no financial sense..Foreclosures are inevitable in a climate of greediness that we’ve seen with overpriced listings.’”
“July was a bummer in metro Milwaukee’s home-building business, new figures show. Like most of the United States, this region is descending, painfully at times, from a five-year housing boom fueled by an easy-money borrowing climate. Those days are over. ‘We’ve got a lot of product out there, a lot of houses for sale,’ said Karen Lawrence, MasterCraft’s marketing director. ‘It’s pretty much the same for everybody around here, slow.’”
The Laramie Boomerang. “Laramie and Albany County don’t normally follow the national trend in real estate. Broker Ann Vicchy said, ‘We don’t have the ‘boom and bust’ syndrome that many of the Wyoming cities experience. She said in the past, the demand for homes has been greater than the supply, creating a sellers’ market. ‘Today, we have more properties for sale in Albany County than at any one time in the past five years.’”
From Canada. “Greater Vancouver’s housing starts climbed 32 per cent to 2,168 units in July. ‘It surpasses any other July in the history of Vancouver,’ said analyst Cameron Muir. ‘There’s no danger of an oversupply happening right now.’”
From California. “If you can’t make money in real estate in the Inland Empire, get a job. That was the message from keynote speaker John Husing. Husing set the tone for the conference with his upbeat presentation, leaving real estate and government professionals smiling.”
“San Diego County’s home prices dropped for the second straight month in July. Local home prices have not been this low since they stood at $484,000 in April last year. To Charles Jolly, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors, this all means one thing: It’s a buyer’s market. ‘You don’t have to pay full price or overpay any longer.’ he said.”
The North County Times. “One of my pet peeves against groups who benefit from today’s obscene levels of housing prices is that they assume that everybody’s family should buy (invest in) real estate now. Who do you think is behind all this? I am blaming the following entities: city building departments, state politicians, banks, mortgage lenders and, lastly, your friendly neighborhood real estate companies.”
“And these folks have the guts to talk about affordable housing and the shortage of buildable land. This is a joke!”
From The Age. “Australia’s recent house price boom is unlikely to have created real long-term wealth for the economy, a report shows. ‘A housing boom in itself does not create real long-term wealth for the economy,’ analyst Greg Canavan said. ‘While certainly many people have done well from the boom, there are just as many others who are now looking at taking on massive debt to satisfy a basic need.’”
“‘A housing boom only generates lasting wealth when deserved, that is, when population growth and rising average incomes push prices up,’ Canavan said.”
Another big week of building a housing bubble consensus. My thanks to those who support this site. Especially those who donate, as that is the primary funding for this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, photos, your market observations and topics!
Arizona State Real Estate Numbers predict CRASH!!!
Between January and July (2006)=41,835 sales, while it stood at 68,235=(2005). Between January and July (2004)= 56,745 sales and 41,200 ( 2003).
“Generally, August about wraps up the resale year, so unless something unusual happens the remainder of this year, what you see is about what we’re going to get,” Butler said.
WHAT YOU SEE is Panic starting Labor Day 2006, Mr. Butler of ASU Real Estate dept. Let the dot.com real estate CRASH begin.
How about 20% reduction on all listings 120 days and older?
Hmm, is John blowing sushine up your you know what ?
From John Husings site:
RECENT CLIENTS HAVE INCLUDED
* Southern California Metropolitan Water District
* Southern California Association of Governments
* Roadway Express/Yellow Freight Systems
* March Inland Global Port
* Southern California Edison
* Verizon
* Hillwood (©A Perot Company)
* Citizens Business Bank
* Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad
* City National Bank
* Inland Empire Economic Partnership
* Orange County Transportation Agency
* Inland Valley Development Agency
* Southern California Logistics Airport
* General Growth Properties
* Forest City Development
* Riverside County Transportation Commission
* San Bernardino Associated Governments
* Western Riverside Council of Governments
* Coachella Valley Economic Partnership
* GE Capital
* California Speedway
* San Bernardino County
* Riverside County
* Arrowhead Credit Union
* Entrepreneurial Capital Group
* San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District
* State of California
* PFF Bank
A friend was at the conference. Apparently Husing also said that housing sales in the Inland Empire have slowed dramatically (in big letters). Really a warning to all those in residential real estate.
The conference was for industrial properties–mainly commercial. He was very positive on commercial growth.
So when the SD realtors were saying it was a good time to buy last year - It wasn’t!??!?!?
And people aren’t overpaying at today’s prices?
That’s a good point. Maybe Mr Jolly will reply.
Revealed At Last!!!
The Secret Method RE Agents Use To Determine If It Is Time To Buy!!!
Here It Is!!!!
R U READY!!!!
ok…a dice with “Buy Now” on all 6 sides. Handed out to provide clueless RE agents with “direction” on how to advise clients…..
Don’t be silly!
I don’t have to overpay anymore? So does that mean I can now buy a house equivalent to the one I rent at only a small premium? Can I buy a house in a safe area a professional couple earning $180k+ can live in and raise a family with a 20% down, 30 year mortgage at no more than 35% of my income for payments?
No?
Then that’s still overpaying.
He’s right. I don’t have to overpay. Never did. My current rental is fine for now.
What’s this obsession of only 20% down being the determining factor on weather or not your getting a good buy? If you truly want a nice house to raise your family in you might have to consider coming in with more like 30-40-50% to make it happen. Not everyone can afford nice homes and while $180k annually might sound impressive if you have no equity then your just average when compared to the family with quite less annual income but a lot more equity… Man, that sounds harsh but keep in mind in the old days if you made $50k a year you did quite well…
A lot more equity?? You mean on paper?? It’s not real until you sell it moron. Go troll somewhere else. You will get your ass handed to you here.
Hey PV Tom has decent bear credentials, although there are some controversial beliefs that sound like perma-bull talk.
I have disagreed with him before and in ultra-premium areas (Palos Verdes, Newport Beach/Coast, Laguna Beach, La Jolla) he may have a point, only time will tell. And from the last post ultra-premium coastal locations took their lumps.
http://www.firstamres.com/pdf/Cagan_FireBurn_1104.pdf
However there are a ton of coastal towns that ain’t ultra premium. (Huntington Beach, San Pedro, San Clemente, Oceanside, etc.)
That is where we disagree.
Not everyone who disagrees is a troll. PV Tom has been intermittently posting since the LA Times article on this blog about 9 mos ago.
Sunset,
I honestly would expect more from you on this issue. Do you see the what PV Tom is saying? He’s talking about the paper equity that makes FB’s think they are invicible and go and buy bigger/more homes and take cash out of the house through Helocs. That’s how we got into this mess. By rewarding poor financial decisions.
Nah, PV Tom in past discussions has been focused pretty heavily on ultra-premium areas.
I agree to an extent that people who want to live in ultra-premium areas will probably have to put down more than 20%.
I disagree wtih PV Tom that ultra-premium areas won’t be hit in this downturn.
I just don’t like name-calling on a long time poster, even though I have been guilty of it in the past.
Housing bears are getting to be pretty mainstream.
Uhhh, you can afford a mortgage of about $830,000, which is a purchase of about $1,040,000. This is using your criteria. I can think of about ten houses in my area that are for sale for less than that. I live in a very safe area, with a perfect climate, family oriented, ten minutes to the beach, fifteen minutes to two good cities, in L.A. county.
You are completely stupid. Do you not understand what he is saying?? It’s called income to house price ratio being OUT OF WHACK dumbshit. 830K?? You mean with suicide loan? Go troll somewhere else. The jig is up FB’s and GF’s. The So Cal housing party is done.
Some people truly have rose-colored glasses. You’re the first person on this blog, however, that seems to have troll-colored glasses. It’s refreshing to know I’m not the only crazy one here.
I just have no patience for it anymore. I’ve been hearing this crap for almost two years now since having moved from Chicago. Now that the MSM is picking up on it the Bulls have defense…I say no mercy on them.
…Bulls have NO defense…
I totally agree with you there.
The idiot Landlord post spoke of affordability - as if that’s what MadJock was getting at. The original post referred to “overpaying.” Landlord said “…you can afford…”
LA_Landlord, should I buy a bare bones Toyota Corolla (with no power windows or ABS) for fifty-six thousand dollars? I can afford it, no problem. Should I buy it? Should I? Huh? Can’t hear you!
Do the math using his numbers, genius. I did a 30-year fixed at 6.5%. Please re-read his post, then read mine, and remove the foot from your mouth.
Sayeth media pundits, politicians, etc:
“Oh.. well… *ahem* come on now… let’s not get silly now…”
(shifts in seat nervously)
“We need to stay reasonable here… *cough* “
Boy ….. I’m a little concerned ……
‘MadJock’ does a fairly clear analysis of the logic of purchasing vs. renting ‘FOR THE CURRENT PRICE CLIMATE’, and he gets no less than two presentations of what he can afford …… hummmm……..
***** “Laramie and Albany County don’t normally follow the national trend in real estate. Broker Ann Vicchy said, ‘We don’t have the ‘boom and bust’ syndrome that many of the Wyoming cities experience.
- See, It’s different in Laramie and Albany County. No Boom / Bust.
“If you can’t make money in real estate in the Inland Empire, get a job. That was the message from keynote speaker John Husing. Husing set the tone for the conference with his upbeat presentation, leaving real estate and government professionals smiling.”
“We are branding San Bernardino County as ‘Opportunity, California,”
****Smiling Bullshit! Places like Fontana are called ‘Fon-tucky’ as in hillbilly trash from the hills of Kentucky. The Inland Empire is toast. Nowhere for this drunkend house bender to go but in the toilet. There are NO high paying jobs in San Bernadino and Riverside…only the construction work!!!!!
You Don’t Have To Overpay Any Longer
That’s so good to hear!
MjM
You never DID have to overpay. Foolish people just chose to do so.
You Don’t Have To Overpay Any Longer
…or does this mean banks are going to reduce the principle of the loans people took out last year?
MjM
Idiotic remarks like “I don’t have to overpay any longer” makes me want to take these supply side economists out into a back alley and pummel some common sense into them.
What’s “supply side” about these idiots? Or do you just apply the name of a school of economics you don’t understand, but have a vague idea you’re supposed to dislike because of your political affiliation, as an epithet to brain-dead real estate boosters? (Who deserve pretty much any nasty epithet you can think up, incidentally.)
atta boy Tommy…
I’m not going to really hurt him, I’d just scare him a little bit.
Well, obviously we can go around and around in circles on the definition and applicability of the term. So I’ll cut and past the first sentence from the Wikipedia definition:
“Supply-side economics is a school of macroeconomic thought which emphasizes the “supply” part of “supply and demand.” The central concept of supply-side economics is Say’s Law: “supply creates its own demand,” or the idea that one must produce before one has the means to buy. “
Basically when I used the term I was referring to Say’s Law, which applies to credit and the oversupply of houses provoking an entitled sense from bankers, homeowners and realtors that just because they have it that we sould want it.
irrrr, okay… I don’t think Say would have ever dreamed of “credit” as an example of a driver for supply side economics though…
Well whether Say dreamed of it or not, it’s here. Credit bubble, USA.
Just to make it clear, I wasn’t bad-mouthing supply side economists– of which most I’m sure are reasonable and good people– just realators with that supply-sidish attitude, and particularly that Jolly guy. Thank you and have a nice day.
“Laramie and Albany County don’t normally follow the national trend in real estate. Broker Ann Vicchy said, ‘We don’t have the ‘boom and bust’ syndrome that many of the Wyoming cities experience.
- See, There different.
“If you can’t make money in real estate in the Inland Empire, get a job. That was the message from keynote speaker John Husing. Husing set the tone for the conference with his upbeat presentation, leaving real estate and government professionals smiling.” “We are branding San Bernardino County as ‘Opportunity, California,”
****Smiling Bullshit!!!
The Inland Empire is a toilet. They call Fontana …” Fon-Tucky”…after the trash from the hills of Kentucky. The Inland Empire and Riverside are toast. There are no high paying jobs except the construction myth jobs.
From California. “If you can’t make money in real estate in the Inland Empire, get a job. That was the message from keynote speaker John Husing. Husing set the tone for the conference with his upbeat presentation, leaving real estate and government professionals smiling.”
BWahahahaha! Oh noes! These real estate realtwhores will have to get a real job that actually produces something.
High paying jobs in San Bernardino/Inland Empire? Once again…bwahahahah! As someone who grew up in that area, and then promptly moved out after college because there were no high paying jobs in that area…there are very few good paying jobs there. Most people have to commute to somewhere else to make money. Opportunity, my @ss.
I’ll bet if I wait another three or four years, I really won’t be overpaying for a home then. Until then I’ll avoid overpaying by renting a home for half the price of a mortgage.
“Hiller pointed out that there has been tremendous “population migration within the country, with many Sun Belt areas - including the Inland Empire - gaining population and some cities in the Midwest actually losing people…..
“Southern California is one of 12-15 areas where population growth has been substantial the last 10 years,” he said. “We’re going to continue to see that, and literally at some point in time, the availability of housing is going to become very important”
My Comment:
And 70 % of the SCal population growth in last 10 years has been from Illegal immigration. Inland empire population growth, esp in SaN bernardino region and outlying desert regions, has included large numbers of low-income/working class recent Hispanic immigrants, along with their Gang-banging offspring.
More quotes from the Inland empire Conference:
“We are branding San Bernardino County as ‘Opportunity, California,”‘ he said. “We’re hoping to make people around the country see that San Bernardino County and the Inland Empire are great places to do business….
In a state with a reputation as being a tough place to do business, San Bernardino County is trying to break the mold…..
“If you look at the efforts being made by this region compared to all the other regions of California, there is absolutely no comparison,” Hiller said. “Not only are we making more noise, we are doing it in a more sophisticated way.”
My Commments:
Certainly SBerdoo is relatively easy for a large warehouse/industrial business to do business in: no strict zoning laws or stiff City/county environmental regulations. And probably cheaper business taxes. Which is why SBerdoo/Fontana region has to be one of the ugliest examples of unplanned, haphazard commercial/industrial urban site planning and development.
Basically, they’re just simply razing/bulldozing off rural pastures and old creaky rural plots and slapping industrial sites on top of the land.
And what is the nature of these Newly-sprung commercial establishments? GIGANTIC WAREHOUSES!! Warehouses for storing and shipping out all that imported Chinese-manufactured products. This is what the imland empire is all about:huge Warehouses paying $10.00 hr average for warehouse jobs.
Can the inland empire average $400,000 median-prices be sustained on $10.00/hr warehouse jobs.
“One of the sources for rising consumer debt has come from home-owners taking out home equity lines of credit (HELOC) to extract equity from their home. The increase in home equity extraction has lead to a negative U.S. consumer saving’s rate, with lower-income homeowners seeing the largest decline in their savings rate over the past couple of years. Renters currently have a 3% savings rate, homeowners with no HELOC have a 0% savings rate, and homeowners with a HELOC have a NEGATIVE 16% savings rate.”
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm
Wow, great link. Recommended.
“By contrast, the average postwar cyclical downturn for housing has been between 26 to 52 months, and in units, has averaged a 51% drop.”
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/markets/realestate/10302860.html
Great article!! Thanks!
I agree the article is confirmation of what many posters have said on this BLog for months.
Please don’t let the meek, weak, & in denial real estate bulls read this report..it might hurt their feelings…but save their pocket books!
“The worst is yet to come for housing; it is moving toward a very hard landing. And with a further decline, will be (important) attendant and adverse ramifications for consumer confidence and aggregate economic growth.
Housing led the economic recovery and will now lead the economy’s contraction — a causal relationship far older than most hedge fund managers’ (who have never seen a bear market) half-life of investing.”
Sounds to me like there has never been a better time to buy
Dearest Get, I think you missed one of the points. 26 to 52 MONTHS to hit bottom. Then you buy. Does the little smiley face with the wink mean you were being sarcastic? JF
Definitely have my sarcastic hat on today…
Foreclosures boost housing market
http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060713/BIZ/607130364
That’s just what I’d want to own, a F’d foreclosure house in Jackson, Mississippi.Get real. The rent would be $150 a month.
A pop up ? mark asking me if I want to run following add-on quicktimecheck scriptable object from apple computer and if I trust website and want to allow it to run click here.
is this something new on Housing bubble blog?
Anyone catch the segment on the Nightly Business Report today? The words hard landing were mentioned several times.
Here’s a job for Arizona FB’s this weekend:
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/etc/193004848.html
Hey ! Paid Aerobic exercise ! Lose pounds while directing nimrods to their finacial ruin !
I’m in Essex County (Mass). Complete stalemate and seller denial situation here with widespread but only very minor price reductions so far. The bubble clings desperately for life but is only hanging by fingernails at this point. Inventory is piling up. I think the fall will bear witness to a breathtaking collapse.
I am in the same area, seeing the same thing.
..but who will blink first??????????????????????????????????????
The same thing on the opposite side of the country, Oregon, in a small town. Huge inventory, minor price reductions, tons of new houses/condo’s coming on the market. Within a block or two of where I live, there are at least 4 or 5 new listings or FSBO this week alone.
Ah, the first signs of panic - listing houses the second week of August. Seems like kind of a weird time to think about selling.
Sign twirling will probably become the most popular major in colleges across the nation for years to come. At least it pays better than flipping burgers.
I actually see a van from a company called “Dancing Signs” in the morning dropping off twirlers near 1st street in San Jose.
I can see where we’re going with the sign twirling, as condo developers get more and more desperate to attract attention.
Soon we’ll have someone on the side of the road in a gorilla suit disco dancing with a sign to music blasting from a P.A. while giant searchlights point toward the sky around a new condo development. On top of the condo high rise, lit from below with spotlights, a giant inflatable purple gorilla sways in the wind, grimacing to the entranced crowds below. Thousands of balloons compose a colorful arch sweeping over the entrance to the building.
“must… buy… condo…” the glassy eyed crowd mutters as they exit their stopped vehicles which are scattered around the nearby roadways and intersection.
The ambling hordes shuffle towards the condo entrance, their voices chattering in low tones:
“now… is… the.. time.. to… buy”
“buyers… market”
“can’t… resist… marketing.. gimmicks.”
“just.. get… me.. affordable… monthly… nut”
Down at the local real estate office, the Realtor ™ smiles, his perfect white teeth framed by a strong, tan jaw as he listens to his cell phone. His brilliant marketing plan is working spectacularly as he knew it would, proving him a marketing genius once again. He truly is indispensable to the real estate transaction.
At this point, sign twirling pays better than flipping burgers AND flipping HOUSES……..
‘A housing boom in itself does not create real long-term wealth for the economy,’ analyst Greg Canavan said. ‘While certainly many people have done well from the boom, there are just as many others who are now looking at taking on massive debt to satisfy a basic need.’”
“‘A housing boom only generates lasting wealth when deserved, that is, when population growth and rising average incomes push prices up,’ Canavan said.”
What Greg Canavan states above has to be one of the smartest things I have read so far regarding the current housing bubble situation.
Many people are in an uproar over housing prices, but truth be told, we Americans are getting royally scr@wed by corporate America. What happened to middle class America??? Where are the high paying jobs from days past and what high paying jobs are being created for those of us who lost our jobs to outsourcing???
I’ve seen my pay continue to go down over the past 10 yrs and medical coverage benefits dissapear into thin air. Please don’t put all your focus into the housing bubble, while jobs that could save many people from imminent financial ruin continue to get outsourced day after day by greedy CEO’s.
Because when this all plays out, it won’t be only the speculators and investors who get hurt, everyone will pay and for a long time. Let’s stand up NOW and get the politicians and heads of companies to know, we’re not going to accept business as usual any more!!!!!
“A housing boom only generates lasting wealth when deserved, that is, when population growth and rising average incomes push prices up,’ Canavan said.”
He has put his finger on the key difference between the period since 1998 and the only other time in recorded US housing market history when prices rose as rapidly, which was immediately following WWII. In the latter case, fundamentals justified the boom, which was needed to adjust our housing stock to the new potential residential location distribution offered by faster cars and the freeway system. No such fundamental factors explain the current boom, which is increasingly revealed to be a speculative mania which resulted in massive overinvestment in housing stock whose long-term costs will bog down the US economy for years to come.
Beth, I just met a woman from India, her for 13 years, but now going back. All the new outsourcing jobs from the U.S. is driving the housing prices up 50% a year. …..” when population growth and rising average incomes push prices up”. What formerly happened here is now happening there. Hmmm.
India == big housing bubble with soft landing — why?
because:
1. short supply of land (with roads/facilities/infrastructure)
2. urbanization
3. quite hard to get credit, even now
4. loan periods are short (15 yrs max)
Soon it won’t make sense to outsource to India. It’s getting less and less cheap to do business there. Indian tech workers jump from company to company for 50 cent raises. Americans are still the most productive and innovative workforce on earth.
Hi Beth,
Please don’t conflate the housing bubble with the enronesque goings-on in corporate america. The housing bubble is a catastrophy that was self-inflicted by greedy, status-seeking buyers (with the notable aid of sales and marketing evildoers). The fall of the middle class (jobwise) is the result of another bubble popping - that was the bubble of isolationism and unionism. The greedy CEOs are not profiting from the demise of the middle class, they are profiting from the manipulation of incentive stock options and the gullible, momentum-chasing day traders.
All three are issues, but they are not the same issue. The worst of the CEOs are on their way to jail for options manipluation. The bubble buyer/speculators are headed for BK, hoist on their own petards. And the AFL-CIO is now organizing illegal aliens in a last gasp to get some members somewhere.
The invisible hand is starting to kick a$$ and take names. But it has so very much to do, because the situation is much more complicated than what you posit.
Go back to Massachusetts and quit whining. The ridiculous price of housing is a huge part of the problem. Housing is too high therefore companies have to pay too much to their employees. The employee needs to make that amount of money to pay for their god awful mcmansion Starbuck’s suburban lifestyle. Thus the job becomes more affordable in Bangalore or Beijing.
If the price of housing comes down then employees have less expenses. They can request wages that allow companies to compete globally. Thus the entire economy gains, not just the real estate eels. The deflating of this insane bubble should make the U.S. stronger in the long run, by allowing it to compete better against foreign competition. The middle class needs prices to tank back to affordable levels. The last thing they need are people like you that believe politicians can magically fix this mess. Politicians don’t fix situations. They f#ck up situations.
“President Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Mr. Guynn addressed the Council on in Atlanta. ‘I remember a longtime Fed policymaker, a veteran observer of housing cycles, used to describe the housing industry as a big group of independent thinkers. Regardless of the warning signs, he observed that each developer, builder, or lender would decide there’s room enough for one more project, his or her project, of course. At the same time, dozens of others in the same business in the same markets were making the same decisions.”
Guynn beautifully describes of how bullish developers get fooled by randomness due to viewing the world as though they were the only builder on the planet. Flippers suffer from a similar problem during boom times, mistakenly attributing their outsized capital gains to financial genius, when in fact they are due to the upward price pressure largely due to so many other flippers buying houses they do not plan to occupy. Inexorably, it eventually comes to light that price appreciation was not due to financial genius, but rather to a herd of bulls madly chasing one another towards the edge of a precipace.
Ah yes, the rising tides the float all boats, regardless of who the captain of the ship is..
“To Charles Jolly, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors, this all means one thing: It’s a buyer’s market. ‘You don’t have to pay full price or overpay any longer.’ he said.”
To me, a blogger who happens to rent a home in San Diego, this all means one thing: It’s a fools’ market. You can either rent at 2/3 the initial monthly cost of buying, or get in at 50% more per month and lose $100Ks when the market corrects to fundamental value.
Go buy one of those F’d houses in Jackson, Miss for 39k. hehehehe
The beginning of a “buyer’s market” is hence forth known as “Fool’s Market”
which is now known as “FM”…
I prefer “buckets full of cash and box full of stupid market”.
I heard that sellers are now looking for buyers with “A wheelbarrow full of cash and a box full of stupid”… That about sums it up!
Hey So Cal OC posters:
Check out the new Gary Watts claptrap.
http://www.homesforsalehuntingtonbeach.com/Mid-YearOutlookJuly2006.doc
Still peddling the inverted year bullshit.
That dude is the worst kind of lying spinmeister. I think he’s even worse than Mr. Lereah. Must be trying to rescue his reputation or something.
I think if he spins any harder he’ll fly apart from centrifugal force (a.k.a. simple inertia)!
Wow…how much people have been conditioned to believe everything will take of itself and life is honkey-dorey…
Oh my gawd!!!! This is sick. How appalling!!!! It’s as if he’s trying to control the market.
Stick a fork in it… it’s done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
test
Imagine how potential buyers feel seeing all those for sale signs. Do you really think you’re helping them enter the market?
-Gary Watts, to other realtors.
That’s just such a great quote.
MjM
I live in Vancouver, Canada, I am a 2nd generation realtor and have been helping people buy and sel for 25years. My marrige disolved 5 years ago. I gave her the cash from the Masoleaum that we had to have, 2 kids 1/2 mine I wanted them 1/2 the time. My boys and I have gone from rental to rental…that is OK, we are together. The tough part is doing business over the last 5/6 years..young families wanting to buy, needing to buy as the family is growing. My reaccuring nightmare has been trying to educate them about the Alan Greenspan school of F*kking up the world economy with low interest rates/cheap credit. My business dropped, the newer young bucks in my office laugh at me said “I was too old, this is the new style” Yeah maybe I was too old 48 then when it started now 53, but it is a bitch telling the buyer to dig the hole, then watching them grab the shovel and fil in the hole after you have explained to them the risks of buying in this market, they want/ need a house. I’ve been reading this site for over 1 month. I agree with everything said. It is going to be brutal..Thank You Alan for the massive fuk you have laid on the world I am sure your legacy will be remembered and my heart goes out to all those young families that bought in the last couple of years.
“I am a 2nd generation realtor and have been helping people buy and sel for 25years.”
Me, 20 years as an investment broker. Out 10 years ago. Now 50.
“It is going to be brutal”
Worse than brutal, Gregg. Maybe a depression. Good luck to you and your boys.
It’s a buyer’s market. ‘You don’t have to pay full price or overpay any longer.’
It’s a good time to buy . . .
when the ratio of median house price to median income in your zip code returns to a sustainable number (4-5 in coastal areas, 2-3 in noncoastal areas). Period. Until then, rent and wait. The hokey debt schemes are over, the unprecedented number of victims of that nonsense will result in an unprecedented wave of foreclosures that will soon start hitting the comps and spark panic selling. I don’t think wages are set to jump anytime soon.
We are very close to deflation, as very soon buyers will realize that they have all the cards. Once the first few sellers begin to cave on price in the many overheated markets of the US, it will be lights out. See the TECH bubble deflation of 2000-2002 for more details…
It is a game of the Emporer, in this case the real estate syndicate, from the builders, to the banks, to the agents, and credit/appraiser people, will soon be seen by all as HAVING NO CLOTHES AT ALL…..
Game over.
The psychology has changed from ‘prices have nowhere to go but up’ to ‘prices have nowhere to go but down’. Forclosures and desparation selling are going to lower comps VERY QUICKLY, and every flipper is going realize the party is over. Many will throw the keys in the driveway and walk away. Which brings more forclosures and desparation selling. It’s going to get very ugly, very soon. Orginally I thought it would take 18 months for the this thing to really start to tank, now I’m thinking 8 months.
I love the YOY comparison that has been so typically (and more frequently) used over, oh ….. say about the last year. This has always painted such a rosy “still going up” banner for the RE cheerleaders, while we all knew the lesser (declining) appreciation was simply masking a falling price.
Story …..,
I can just imagine driving on a road trip to the ocean with a car load of RE agents (God that sounds painful). Everyone is smiling and having a great time, so eager to get to the sand and surf. Suddenly and without warning, a tire blows out and sends the car careening toward a concrete wall. As the car begins to impact the wall, I’m screaming something to the effect that, ‘we’re all going to die!’, because unfortunately – I understand the dynamics of a car crash and what’s about to happen:
Even after the initial contact, while it is rapidly decelerating, most of the car is still moving forward. It continues forward at a progressively slower pace, until all of the force exerted by the car is met by the wall pushing back – and the car’s forward motion is finally stopped. During this horrific period of crush, I notice the agents are all still smiling. Why? Well, because …….
“While we might be slowing down, we’re still on our way to the beach” !!!
(sorry, that was a painful story to make this point …..)
the sad part, I can’t see how, on a single condo building, 5 or 6 different realty signs at the front door helps. doesn’t that say: lots of units are for sale?