Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Will a homebuilder let you ‘pick your payment’? Slow open houses? Here’s one from Arizona, “I live in Page, and the housing market has always been very poor here. We had our four-bedroom house on the market for 14 months recently and it never sold, not even an offer. It’s 2,200 square feet, and we were asking $190,000.”
The Union Leader. “The New Hampshire residential real estate market is a mixed bag as some areas of the state remain active, while others are experiencing a significant slowdown in sales. The largest decrease in sales prices from a year ago occurred in Strafford County, where the average price decreased from $234,898 to $211,813, or 10 percent. The Seacoast area experienced a 5 percent decrease in sales prices, going from a state high of $373,432 a year ago, to a still state leading $355,506.”
“Other areas experiencing decreasing selling prices include Manchester, down $5,400, or 2 percent from a year ago, and the North County with a decrease of $6,800 or 4 percent.”
From Pensacola, Florida. “A 30-thousand-home project that could be the largest residential development in the western Florida Panhandle’s history is being planned by ten Pensacola area investors. Peter Aluotto, Escambia County’s planning and zoning director, says the development covering more than 41-hundred acres northwest of Pensacola near the Florida-Alabama state line would be like adding a new city.”
The LA Times. “Within Los Angeles County, there are at least a dozen ZIP Codes where prices have started to falter year over year, according to DataQuick. The biggest drop was in Torrance, where the median price of existing single-family houses fell 7.4% to $560,000 in the May 1-July 31 period, DataQuick said.”
“Also showing depreciation were Agoura Hills, where the median fell 4.1% to $820,000, and Manhattan Beach, where it dipped 3.3% to $1.45 million.”
“A growing stockpile of homes for sale is putting pressure on sellers to cut their asking prices. That’s becoming evident even in downtown Los Angeles. ‘Downtown has gone into a state of paralysis because prices are starting to come down,’ said Stephen May, a veteran real estate broker who specializes in the area. The dearth of demand and rising supply prompted May to advise one client seeking to sell her condo unit to list it at just $10,000 more than what she paid a year ago.”
“Today, there are seven condo units for sale for every one sold. Last year, the ratio was 1 to 1, May said. ‘It’s glut city,’ he said.”
Essex County, Massachusetts. Inventory building weekly and is at a 12 month, if not all-time record high. Pervasive, but only very insignificant price reductions. We are in a hardcore stalemate and deep seller denial phase. I keep hearing about dramatic price reductions in other parts of the country, but this is definitely not happening here. Therefore we are set up for an extremely painful fall and winter as the foreclosures hit and the ARMs reset.
The Price Reductions, from $689,000 to $679,000 just kill me…what is the point.
I grew up in Essex County, lived around the country for 10 years after going to college and getting some first post-grad jobs, then moved back in ‘99 — thought we were in bubble territory then when the CMGI millionaires were bidding up the prices around Andover — I couldn’t believe one of my elementary school friends bought a house for over $300,000 and it didn’t even have a garage in 1999! Of course, that house was probably recently assessed for $580k or so. Oh well, I’ll stay in my crappy Weymouth apartment for a bit longer, waiting for an ‘affordable’ , non POS $400k Essex County property to come to the market.
I got that beat, I was listening to a real estate show and the host was saying there was a house last month listed for 385,800.00 and they reduced it to 385,000.00 and then had the nerve to say they were a “Motivated Seller”. Just when you think you’ve seen it all!
All of these sellers are just friggin dolts!
Come this fall, the scales will fall from their eyes and they will realize that the uncomfortable feeling they couldn’t quite put their finger on was Bernanke’s bone probing their backside. The moment of recognition is when that bone gets jammed up to the hilt and we will hear screams of pain and humiliation when they realize they are going for a 30 year ride on ole “Big Ben Bernanke’s” bone. Hehehe, Ooh BABY this is going to get wild!!! Just a matter of time now.
I guess the $800 drop brought them down to their loan balance!
I just drove by an “Open House” type sign that read:
Home selling Sunday Night
To Best Bid
Inspection on Sat & Sun 10-5
(I think it was a Help-U-Sell sign)
Now this is in the upscale community of Valencia, CA (30 miles north of LA)
I am going to inspect the house tomorrow and also will attend the bidding process. I let everyone know what happens, I will take some pictures.
Hey, Desmo, I saw those signs on Seco Canyon Road in Saugus. Let us know what you find out.
I’ve got to think that the owner has a minimum or reserve bid (though the signs didn’t disclose that). Besides, in this slowing market, why would anyone waive a right to a thorough inspection? The days of buying “as-is” are over.
Elsewhere in the Santa Clarita area (Valencia, CA and surroundings), I saw 14 houses for sale (and 2 more for rent) in just over a mile in one residential neighborhood (along one street, counting homes visible on the side streets). No lack of inventory there.
Yeah, I saw the signs too! Also, there is already a pre-forclosure in my neighborhood! I about jumped for joy. I thought all the houses were going for $$ above the asking price? What really frosts me though is the fact that we had a couple who had a corporate transfer where the company gave them $100k more for their house than it was listed for. The house had been for sale for 6 months and didn’t sell. Is this going to really screw up the comps here?? It really pisses me off!!! The house still has a for sale sign in the yard, but it is not listed on Ziprealty. What’s the deal?? I just hope it doesn’t pump up prices here in my neighborhood since it is a “false” sale!!!
Stopped by this house today, total crock. Paperwork says “home to be sold to highest and best bidder”
(Acceptable to seller)
Bids to start at $279,500. The house is in a crappy area in Saugus, giant RV parked next door, street filled with RV’s, junk cars, etc. The house is a POS flipper remodel, some parts of the house without permit, etc. No auction, just leave a bid and they will get back to you. They are using a firm 5daysale.com for the process. A lot of people walking the house. 27619 Santa Clarita Road-Saugus- CA 91350 if anyone wants to check the history. Also, http://www.saugushome.com is on the literature. Desperation for the seller for sure.
Yeah, I inquired about an 8 family apartment building in St. Louis county. They wanted $850k for it which worked out to about a 5% cap rate when factoring in normal vacancies and amortization expenses. I asked the realtor to justify such a price when I can get 5% in treasuries with zero risk. He reduced the price to $845. LOL!
Try looking at cap rates around here in LA: 3-4 percent, in shady neighborhoods, no less.
Sounds like a good time to ring the register.
Are you kidding? She can’t wait to get leveraged to the hilt.
Cat fight?
Better believe it :).
Dont’ forget - you need a higher cash on cash return than the %5 you get with the Treasuries, because you have to manage the apartment building to get the return whereas with the Treasuries you just get paid with no effort from you and/or family members.
An apartment building recently sold in Santa Barbara with a 2% cap rate.
Nuts.
That’s because of the 28th amendment to the Constitution- RE prices can only go up regardless of negative cash flow. Passed by mob rule & Greenspan sometime in 2005.
I’ve got units for sale if someone made me an offer at a 2% cap rate!
But I’m not sure I could stop laughing long enough to sign the papers… Tell me, where do you find GFs with that kind of money?
SM-
If they are where you nick indicates and still have a little juice in them. Believe me when I say there are plenty GF’s left for that. If I had any indications that I could get a 2% cap for my ghetto palaces I would sell the whole fleet.
Although I don’t think I would be laughing, they’d probably have to send me a case of smelling salts to get through escrow and closing. The shock would be overwhelming. LOL
“A 30-thousand-home project that could be the largest residential development in the western Florida Panhandle’s history is being planned by ten Pensacola area investors”
Everyone with a clue knows the party is over for housing, what is it with these guys ? The proverbial bucket of money and empty 10 gallon hat has arrived ?
Don’t forget: It’s like a new city! Everyone wants to live in a whole new city with unestablished everything. It’s like the last, final frontier — again.
but if a 1000 a day are moving to florida it will be sold out in 30 days,
That would be more than 7 homes per acre IF there were no greenspace, no streets, no drainage ponds, etc. The must be planning a lot of multi-family dwellings in that area, but for whom? No new jobs there that I’m aware of. Retirees? Not at anywhere that many at today’s prices and property taxes.
Wonder what the timeline is for this sucker. I remember DiBartolo advertising, around 1972, the proposed construction of what would become the Florida Mall at the south end of metro Orlando. It was many, many years later that ground was broken for anything there.
The New York Times had an article about two weeks ago about some ex-football player who just put together a deal to buy the largest parcel of privately owned land in Florida - it was tens of thousands of acres near Ft. Myers/Naples (basically Ground Zero for the bubble). Much to be deeded back to the state as preservation, but with the same colossal type (50,000 + residents) plan for development.
Maybe Palmetto, Chip or Lizziebeth here knows more about it - anyway it just boggles the mind that these mega-deals are going down while the ship is sinking.
Reggie White
Reggie White is deceased.
“The dearth of demand and rising supply prompted May to advise one client seeking to sell her condo unit to list it at just $10,000 more than what she paid a year ago.”
I’m sure that was received like a wet fart!
Pass the Charmin.
I have a feeling that before it’s over, some Depends will be needed.
It’s raining today so I’m not really out looking at housing. But, I want to remind everybody there’s a Paypal “Donate” button on the right side of the page. Help Ben keep this site running.
I second this…sent another visa pymt. in this morning.
I believe it’s very important to keep this an open forum and not force Ben into a pay site. You know any of the builder/ RE organizations would probably love to buy this domain and hush us trouble makers.
I might add that I think MSM is plagiarizing some of the great minds here… Another reason to keep this site open and expanding.
yeah.. a lot of statements they wrote were copied words by words
We’re currently renting a house in Ashland, Oregon, and are “bubble-sitting” after selling our house on the East Coast before moving west last summer. Our current house was sold in 2005 for $475,000, and we’re paying $1,500/month in rent.
Here are some stats that I’ve been keeping track of since last summer. Inventories have more than tripled since last summer, while prices are still holding fairly firm. Sales are dropping off though, and the drop from June to July is fairly substantial. I’m guessing prices will follow suit.
Month # Houses sold AVG Ask AVG Sell AVG $/SF
July 2005 39 $488,949 $477,049 $260
Aug 2005 40 $470,455 $460,057 $263
Sep 2005 34 $504,371 $484,262 $266
Oct 2005 36 $449,383 $442,688 $293
Nov 2005 24 $489,025 $480,643 $261
Dec 2005 26 $460,576 $446,384 $265
Jan 2006 14 $543,082 $542,973 $279
Feb 2006 13 $588,585 $580,176 $311
Mar 2006 21 $484,433 $475,615 $245
Apr 2006 22 $485,445 $475,132 $257
May 2006 28 $535,729 $519,054 $257
Jun 2006 39 $572,594 $557,257 $272
July 2006 30 $490,993 $476,918 $256
It doesn’t look like a significant drop. 39 to 30 is meaningless and $260/ft to $256/ft is zip over one year. Still closed 39 in June 06 @ $272/ft. FLAT is the word. Flat is down as per Democrak speak.Loved the old Elks Lodge in Ashland. The Shakespear Festival sucks.
My mother is getting ready to move from Ashland to California to be near the children (she is 85). If you want a great place to live, check out
http://medford.craigslist.org/apa/193139008.html. We’d love to have a fellow HB blogger there.
I am curious… Why did you move from the east coast to Ashland? Are you happy? I have thought about leaving Western Washington (state) and moving to Maine or New Hampshire, or somewhere in that area. I know that it is bubblicious out there too, but I still feel that one gets more house for the money. I also appreciate older homes with charm, and even prefer a lot of the newer architecture out there vs. some of this west coast crap they call spec or whatever. And while there are some great people in Washington/Oregon, I am absolutely stunned by the number of meth heads and inbred Jed types around here. I have seen some areas up here that conjure up memories of the movie Deliverance.
High taxes and no jobs back in Maine or New Hampshire and expensive housing even in small backward towns and they people there are very provencial and unaccepting of outsiders. Even a second generation born can still be considered from somewhere else.
Beautiful areas, some quaint homes and villages, but cold winters and economically depressing.
Thanks for the info. I know some people back there and actually would be growing plants so would be self employed. I am interested in acreage (rural) and the prices seem lower than here. I have noticed the taxes are high. The cold winters I don’t mind, but if the locals are unaccepting, that is unfortunate. Thanks for the insight.
“Also showing depreciation were Agoura Hills, where the median fell 4.1% to $820,000, and Manhattan Beach, where it dipped 3.3% to $1.45 million.”
I work in Manhattan Beach and it has definitely slowed down. But there continues building in Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach….1 million is nothing special there.
I grew up in Palos Verdes in the 60’s. aermosa and Manhattan were wonderful places. Great fishing at the Redondo barge. Now they are over crowded slums by the sea. I wouldn’t live there. What a joke to pay $1,000,000. plus to live with the illegals digging through your trash and a polution messing up the ocean and beach. We need to shut down the borders, evict the illegals and establish a national and world wide incentinve program for birth /poulation control.
It is a long term problem that requires long term planning. Population and border control are the ultimate key to polutional, energy, food, water and over crowding problems.
Went to ‘SC for college. Used to go to those SoCal beaches regularly, but wouldn’t move anywhere in L.A. proper. It’s all a slum. Buy a mil home and one mile away have drive-bys and illegals. I live in Scottsdale, AZ, but over 4th July was in the ‘OC (used to live there too). I went to the beach and nothing but trailer trash and illegals (or at least 90% was anyhow). ‘OC had low fair attendance recently, which is due to high gas prices and housing collapse - people dont feel as if they have a lot of money in their homes which leads them to spend less. Cant imagine spending $2,000 month for a crappy Irvine Co apartment or $600,000 to live in crappy Rancho Santa Margarita(used to have a condo there)/Las Flores/or anything clsoe to 405/5 fwys. Small lots, small garages, small dirveways and no street parking. And Costa Mesa is an illegal alien dump
From the LA Times article:
Experts say the rise in mortgage rates over the last year has taken a toll.
“We are kidding ourselves that mortgage rates are not the problem,” John Burns, an Irvine building industry consultant, wrote in a note to clients this week. He pointed out that the monthly payment on a $300,000 loan is 15% higher today than in August 2005.
Ugh. Mortgage rates are THE problem? John, I don’t care if the rate is 6%, or 12%, or 0%. I - and most other people - can’t afford a $500,000 “starter home” in Southern California!!
“We are kidding ourselves that mortgage rates are not the problem,”
Poor Poor Baby ! Rates are still at historically record lows and you industry tools are bleating like stuck pigs ! The entire real estate/mortage industry has painted itself into a corner and there is no getting out without way lower prices in the future. Deal with it.
Mo Money, that’s the bottom line. But from what I am seeing, the denial is so deep that it is going to take some sort of massive shock, financial or otherwise, to bring people up to a point of recognition.
I’m there dude, my little sister is convinced that she can keep trading up the property ladder. This is week two for her $740K townhouse (funded by 5 year IO ARM) on the market with no offers and they can’t go any lower on price and will already lose $20K with the upgrades they did to a place that was already a palace. Last week was open house on Sunday and all they got was looky-loos from the complex. She saw a house she liked last weekend that had been marked down from $1.1 mil to $800K but thats AGAIN going to be a Interest only ARM. I just keep my mouth shut, she and the husband are going to have to learn the hard way.
Wow, there is actually a seller that marked a house down from 1.1m to 800k??? Probably should be about 500k.
Mo Money,
If your sister had an IO and took a $20K hit, exactly WHAT is she using to help her trade up in the first place?
Exactly. Why cant anyone see this. When the median salaries dont come close to affording the median homes-The Math Just Doesnt Add Up. I dont care about how great the demand is -NUMBERS DONT LIE-THIS CAN NOT LAST!!!!!
Agreed, but it seems like everyone I know who buys a house is using equity from their last house, or their parents money. Those poor souls who have neither, are moving to Houston.
Actually, it can, just maybe not with the kind of society most of us would prefer.
Before World War 1, the median Russian income was equivalent in purchasing power to maybe $3,000 in the US today. Consider how you’d raise a family on $60 a week (and yes, it can be done).
But there was a market for things like Faberge eggs.
I agree with you regarding median income as it pertains to the median home prices. With rampant speculation and loose lending, housing affordability for the working class families was lost completely. It is astonishing how small town usa home prices could shoot through the roof while wages have been stagnating. I just spoke with my mother in Reno this morning, and she indicated one of the last homes on her street just sold last month (every home except one on her street has now been sold in the last 5 years). It sold for $305k which is between 10% and 20% off peak pricing for that street. The comps are easy because they are all 60’s tract homes with nearly identical floor plans. The kicker on this sale is that it went to a specuvestor from Texas!! This is known because they have a neighborhood watch where they all get together to discuss the state of their neighborhood. He (specuvestor) is now renting it out to a bunch of hard drinking college guys who have already broken a window and caused headache within the neighborhood of mostly quiet types. And the rent he is getting is less than $1500 on a purchase of over $300k. Can someone tell me how this could be misconstrued as an investment? Why are people willing to do this? It makes no sense to me. And also, why wouldn’t this guy just buy around TX somewhere? There really is no way to understand these completely irrational purchases.
Tourned a new KB home development in Sacramento today. Last year’s price on a 3/2 1800sqft home was around $420K, this year theyre asking $330K and still cant sell them. Ouch! The flippers who bought in the last couple years are hosed, no way they can compete with the builders.
Slewfoot, you are right on. I just toured a JTS development in Lincoln outside Sacramenot. 2400 sf home. Many sold at $650,000 to $700,000 in April/May 06. Builder now has a blowout special. Wants $516,000 for the last ones. Previous buyers are being skewered for $100,000-$200,000, and they closed these deals 60 days ago. The houses will rent for $2,000/month. Ownership costs will be $4,262/month, so they can take a loss on resale, or eat $2,262 a month (and then take a bigger loss on resale in 3 years). NO WIN. Amazing. 168 homes, and only 3 purchased by owner occupants. The rest are Flippers!
Holy Sh*t! What a great story! I count 165 dead flippers floating around in the deadbeat mortgage pool!
“Holy Sh*t! What a great story! I count 165 dead flippers floating around in the deadbeat mortgage pool!”
LOL! And in 4 years when the prices of those original $750k houses are at $150,000, I can see new buyers of 3 families per house moving in. What a picture! Instant slum. Pawn shop and check cashing shop at every intersection in that area soon!
Disagree. If they ever drop to 150K I think you’ll see new single families moving in.
Mind you, I hear hispanic families run large. And you could well be right about the local small businesses.
If this were the Sopranos , the only construction being implemented these days would be GRAVES!
Will a homebuilder let you ‘pick your payment’?
http://www.kbhome.com/Promo~PromoID~1420~c~e.aspx
But, in the KB Home advertisement, of course we have:
Advertised monthly payment will increase for years 2 thru 5. ARM rates and monthly payments are subject to increase after the five-year fixed period of the 30-year loan term. After the completion of the 10-year interest-only period, the loan will then be fully amortized over the remaining term as an adjustable-rate mortgage that adjusts once a year and borrowers will be required to pay principal & interest, which may result in a significantly higher monthly payment.
I guess consumers are still focused on the monthly payment thing instead of total cost of ownership. Maybe wondering why bank stocks are doing so well. They’re on the other end of that income and fee stream.
It’s dead slow in New Jersey. Nothing is moving- 2 homes for sales on my block, and they are sitting. No one cares.
-X
BubbleTrack.blogspot.com
I know I don’t!!
me either!
C’mon now, the sellers care.
Where are the flippers? These spec houses won’t last long.
3401 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2
$188,199
3316 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2.5
$189,000
2200 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2
$196,790
3205 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2
$198,099
3216 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2
$202,790
2216 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2
$210,870
2204 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2.5
$212,900
3308 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2
$216,600
2212 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2.5
$216,800
3409 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2.5
$218,790
3312 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2.5
$219,000
3304 Valley Brook - 4 - 2.5
$219,582
2129 Valley Hollow - 3 - 2.5
$220,000
3316 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$222,552
3317 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2.5
$226,300
3304 Valley Hollow - 4 - 2.5
$231,000
3211 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$246,100
3320 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$247,401
2128 Valley Hollow - 4 - 3.5
$248,000
3308 Valley Brook - 4 - 3
$248,000
3312 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$248,787
3316 Valley Brook - 4 - 2
$253,341
3309 Valley Meadow - 4 - 3
$254,700
3312 Valley Brook - 4 - 3
$255,000
3224 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$257,900
3209 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$257,900
3216 Valley Meadow - 3 - 2
$259,000
3204 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$259,700
3313 Valley Meadow - 4 - 2.5
$273,050
2201 Wood Valley - 4 - 4
$380,000
628 Summit Crest - 4 - 3.5
$389,000
One of a dozen subdivisions around town.
Remember last year when they would load up a bus with chuckle headed “investors” and tour other neighboring cities in hopes of finding some “underpriced” gem. Saw one of these circuses on TV. Almost split a gut laughing so hard.
Bring back the RE caravans. I miss them.
Hahahaha! You are kidding, right? How can anyone sit on a bus with a bunch of other strangers all looking at RE as an “investment” and not know they are getting taken to the cleaners? Was there a hypnotist on board or what?
I hope they taped the show! I bet they are all riding around with shit-eating grins on their faces like they just crapped their pants and don’t want anyone to know what happened! Please advise the name of the show so I can tape it. Thanks
Hahahaha! You are kidding, right? How can anyone sit on a bus with a bunch of other strangers all looking at RE as an “investment” and not know they are getting taken to the cleaners? Was there a hypnotist on board or what?
No hypnotist, just the agents serving “Kool Aid”
If there was only a home on Valley Crest …and I’m there!
Mort, is this in Oklahoma?
Yes. Norman, OK.
Here are the latest listing numbers (SFH, Condos, Land) for this week for King County (Seattle) with all figures relative to the start date of 5/7/06.
Date / King Co / Delta / %
07-May / 7302 / /
15-May / 7486 / 184 / 3%
21-May / 7665 / 179 / 5%
11-Jun / 8099 / 434 / 11%
18-Jun / 8154 / 55 / 12%
24-Jun / 8352 / 198 / 14%
01-Jul / 8417 / 65 / 15%
08-Jul / 8758 / 341 / 20%
15-Jul / 9057 / 299 / 24%
22-Jul / 9139 / 82 / 25%
29-Jul / 9044 / -95 / 24%
05-Aug / 9059 / 15 / 24%
12-Aug / 9191 / 132 / 26%
Similar increasing trends in adjacent counties:
Pierce - 29% (the winner!!)
Snohomish - 22%
Whatcom - 18%
Lots of houses coming on the market both for sale and for rent. We are looking to rent and have noticed that a lot of rental homes enter the list overpriced and then over time they have to reduce the rental price.
This isn’t last year and the flippers are gonna find out quickly the joys of negative cash flow.
One other comment is that a lot of the rentals we have looked at are owned by people whose English is not very good (foreign investors or greater fools taken in by “the industry”?). Also, most rentals are in embarassingly bad shape. Geez, a lot of places don’t even come with blinds for privacy. One place came with a free pile of dog crap in the basement.
I check every potential house we are going to rent on Zillow to see if it was bought in the last 3 years and whether the owner actually ever occupied the home. Based on walk thrus of many homes, I estimate that about 75% of the houses we have looked at have been bought in the last 3 years and the owner never occupied the house (clue: flipper).
Based on what I have seen I would estimate that up to 50% of the homes bought in the last 3 years have been bought by “infestors” and a good chunk of the remaining percentage by CA equity locusts.
If so, then demand will dry up “overnight” as speculation is quickly ramping down and home sales to “potential” CA equity locusts are starting to fall thru as the CA ELs can’t unload their CA homes in the suddenly dead CA markets.
Pretty soon the joke in CA is gonna be “how many mexicans does it take to buy a CA home”? Ans: yesterday 20, today 10, and tomorrow…1.”
I’ve been watching the rentals in Whatcom County, WA. the past few months, seeing if I can pick up a cheaper/better place to wait out the crash.
Rents were definitely heading downward the past couple months from last year this time.
Now, all of a sudden, there are pages and pages of rentals in a local weekly with NO price given! Like 85% of them!
It apears that owners/flippers are trying to entice people over (based on who knows what) to look at their places and then try to determine how much they can squeeze out of their prospective tenant?
It’s the darndest thing and the first time I’ve ever seen it. Who the heck’s going to call to see a place if they don’t know what the rent is beforehand? Am curious how long this trend will last.
Seatle Moose- that’s some good info on specuvestors in King Cty. You should post it to the Seattle Bubble Blog.
Housing market still the same here in Whatcom. More properties all the time, more price reductions all the time, more stuff de-listed and presented as NEW ON MARKET!!! all the time.
Price cuts getting a bit steeper. More 50K cuts after a week or 2 instead of the lame 5K after 3 months.
Pretty soon the joke in CA is gonna be “how many mexicans does it take to buy a CA home”? Ans: yesterday 20, today 10, and tomorrow…1.”
-Stop it already! With a subprime no doc you have one legal resident (who is a relative and will not live at the residence). Then there will be at least 3 more families live there. You will know the place because of all the junk cars parked out front.
This is slightly off topic but pertaines to Seattle. I work in commercial construction and the stike that is going on at the concreate plants in Seattle is bringing large scale construciton to a grinding halt. This has got to be putting a huge squeeze on the seemingly hundreds of huge condo projects going up all over town.
I’ve been tracking inventory in Tempe, AZ on ziprealty for the last few months. My search critera are set to SFHs (no condos, townhouses, etc.), price range $150 - 300K. About two months ago that search returned around 130 properties. Within the last couple of weeks it’s started to rise fairly dramatically—last week it returned about 150 properties, and today it shows 181, which means that either more houses are being listed, or houses that a couple of months ago would have been listed at over 300K are being listed lower. Probably a combination of both.
I am getting ready to sell my home in AZ, and when I looked on the MLS I saw that 4 nieghbors put their home on the MLS within the last 35 days. For sale signs are on every 5th home in AZ. Two neighbors are lisitng for about $240k + and I think they are insane. We will have to wait and see.
Hey, RE-ONLY- GOES -UP …..do you still think real estate only goes up . Anyway we talked enough yesterday . Again I say ,it’s doom and gloom .20% of the houses for sale …..not good .
All I can say is “Holy Dead-Trees, Batman”
Cracking open today’s Saturday Los Angeles Times: let’s observe:
1) 3 separate “New Homes” classified sections.
2) 1 Daily Pilot issue called “Real Estate” with nothing but home ads in it
3) 1 full classified section called “Homes”
That’s 5 sections of today’s paper dedicated to advertising residential real estate for sale.
Taking all of the remaining sections (front page, sports, etc.) in the right hand and the real estate advertising sections in the left: the left hand pile is THICKER and HEAVIER. Wow!
I’ve read the LA Times for years (occasionally) and have never seen this much emphasis on peddling real estate.
And in the Business section, and article: “Home Price Gains Keep Shrinking”, with some commentary on the still rising inventory and still falling sales numbers.
Don’t forget the ‘Open Houses’ section of the Los Angeles Times.
Where do you live? I went out and grabbed an LA times and the real estate section was thin today (8/12/2006).
However, there was only one “new homes” section. Mine was the “south bay” edition.
Neil
I think the San Fernando Valley edition is what was referred to.
I’ve seen this too. If you look in the Real Estrate Sections you will see articles about the rising median prices have slowed alittle (back to normal) and now is a great time to buy! Meanwhile, the bussiness section every week talks about the weakness in the homebuilders and rising invetories. Hell, even the main stream media is taking about rising invetories. WTF?
LOL! Last Sunday, I showed my wife a page from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette real estate section, the Prudential Realty page. “Wow”, she said, that’s a lot of homes they have listed.” I said “Dear, that’s the OPEN HOUSES for today”. She couldn’t believe it. Neither could I.
I have been calling all of the RE sections in my paper the “funny pages” for a few years now.
Here in Costa Mesa, there are even more signs up, as there are every weekend. On many corners the sings are piled up, competing with each other. This is true in some neighborhoods more so than others, and true of many condo/townhome complexes. Drove by some of the open houses, there’s nobody there, even for brand new listings.
Amazing. According to this realtor: http://tinyurl.com/nmlhg sales are down 56% YOY!
Periodically checking realtor.com, it seems Costa Mesa listings have been growing at a rate of around 30/month, at least for the last couple of months. (Currently at 545 including multi-family.)
Caught this at the end of the article:
“My personal opinion is that fear is the only cause of this drop, caused mostly by the press that always looks for bad news. There really is no reason for this drop in view of a healthy economy. As Mr. Gary Watts, a real estate economist, says “there is a strong need for housing and the economy is strong, especially in Orange County”.
Are you thinking of buying or selling? No need to panick, homes are taking longer to sell, but they are selling. Just remember that you need to prepare your home to show at its best and to price it in line with the market. You can’t ask thousands more, like you did last year, and expect to get it. On the other hand, if you’re looking to buy, you have a lot more homes to choose from.”
Too funny, and can’t spell either.
University Heights in San Diego is an artsy area about 1 1/2 miles by 1 1/2 miles the homes were built in the 1920’s and are of Craftsman type - I bought my home here in 1997 and for the most part I have loved living here. Just in the last two years something has changed here you can feel it in the atmosphere - it is a sense of financial Panic in the Residents of this area - I own a condominum in a 7 unit building that is really clean and has nice landscaping and great Bones as they say in the RE Business - my place has windows on all four sides so I have a great Breeze most of the time and my Porch has shade from the sun giving a great place to sit and relax the only problem is my close proxmity to the alley because starting at 4 am in the Morning the Scavengers start prowling the alley and all trash recepticles looking for Cans-Glass-aluminum-Plastic and Credit Card Invitations - around 7 Am a Mexican Female (Illegal alien?) pushing a baby stroller with a baby inside and 6 other Children ranging in age from 6 months up to 7 years old rumage through every trash can and dipsy dumpster in the Alley behind my condominum Project ( I have been watching her and her children for the better part of a year now) they are all dirty and look unkempt and unfed but they are together. They go on peoples private property and take coke cans and liter bottles off of peoples back porchs clearly on private property they even empty the citys recycle recepticles in violation of city Laws - several times a day during the week I will Notice single males looking into the parked cars in the alley and sometimes burglerizing the Cars and Stealing what ever is in them - Most of these are of Latino Desent and are probbably undocumentated aliens. Five years ago you never saw those things occuring.
and your point is? i’m assuming there’s gotta be a point to this diatribe, aside from spouting off racist assumptions.
I’m confused, what is racist in that post? Are you saying that it’s racist to assume that Latinos in Southern California are illegal?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Observing the truth about something is not racist, it’s just observing the truth.
And yes, it is common for Mexicans to go thru the trash and pick out recyclables. It just is.
An old white guy was going through my trash last week. I save the cans for him.
“it is common for Mexicans to go thru the trash and pick out recyclables. It just is.” Whenever you see poor people
begging, it is mostly whites or blacks. I don’t think I have ever seen a Hispanic person begging. They work, even if
it means they have to stand by the freeway selling oranges, but they usually work rather than ask for a hand out. Go to Santa Monica one day where there are lots of homeless people. Try to count the Hispanics. And, I’ve never seen one pick out of the trash can either.
I don’t know about that. I have seen one pick and eat out of the trash can. In a office I used to work at on the westside and he was working as a janitor in the building. Poor is poor one race hasn’t cornered the market over another in that aspect of life.
Mr. Reno’s comments are spot on. I observed the same crap going on in Seal Beach and later in the Belmont Heights area. The term “racist” is now so overused it has become a meaningless word.
I would bet that her immigrant Husband/boyfriend who banged her up with all those babies/kids ran off with another immigrant latina to make more babies.
I have known of quite a few illegal alien Men(Hombres), in this country only a few years, who shack up with illegal immigrant latinas, bang out 2-4 babies, and then goe off with another latina, leaving the Poor Original Wife with the 4 kids to go on welfare and look out after herself. Or the Gang-banging Latino immigrant ends up in jail, with the same result for the wife and kids.
You are desribing bottom-of-the-heap behaviour rather than specifically immigrant behaviour.
This is exactly the same accusation that was aimed (and may well have been aimed accurately BTW) at Black Men in the 60’s and 70’s. Then after that it was Puerto-Ricans. Now it’s Mexicans. In Australia where I live it’s Aborigine’s.
My nephew knows people who live like this, and they’re whiter than white.
Well that kind of behavior is very macho and can be seen in cultures that emphasize the “macho man”. This includes the Mexican and black communities. I don’t know about Puerto Rican or Aboriginal. And I am sure there are some macho white males who have done this. However, I will say that with white males, “machismo” has almost disappeared.
The question we should ask is whether or not it is true, not whether or not it is not politically correct.
One aspect of the Macho Latino Mentality is to leave the wife and kids at home and goe out to Bars, get roaring drunk, get into fights, and even have Cervesas with the bar girls at $4.00 a pop.
One can stereo-type Latino immigrants, as People do for all races, but you really cannot make judgements about Hispanic immigrants unless you have been deep into their culture( have spent considerable time in Mexico and Guatemala).
Your Average Hispanic immigrant will take tou into their homes and are quite hospitable, and will give you the Shirt off their back.
Still, There are are lot of problems stemming from our open-ended border policy, which has IMHO created many problems escpecially in SCal. Most of you who have lived In scal for a long time are aware of these problems, but let me provide a few examples. In 2003 La county taxpayers payed out $380 million in unreimbursed Medical expenses for uninsured illegals. 30 % of all illegals and recent green-card aliens(most of them Hispanic, are on Medi-cal. If you hit a car packed with illegal aliens, guaranteed they will sue you and your insurance company. If they hit you, you collect nothing.
I can write a small book on all the ways illegals scam the system but as i sent over 300 e-mails, faxes, and letters back in 2003 to every media/gov’t/tv pundit/talk radio/newspaper outlet i did my part to get the ball rolling on resolving our serious open-border problem.
Ship them back to Mexico. If “anti rascist” wants to go let him join the Mexicans. I am a rascist if that means that I think American values are superior to Mexican and Moslem views. Could it be that one of the reasons the latin and moslem nations have such a low standard of living is that they have too many children?
“I am a rascist if that means that I think American values are superior to Mexican and Moslem views.”
One day you will face God, like it or not. And when you do, if you haven’t learned to “Love thy neighbor as youself…” I
wouldn’t want to stand in your shoes. I will pray for you today. God bless you.
“and are probbably undocumentated aliens.”
I have lots of Hispanic friends and they are all legal. Not only that, most of the once that I know are property owners, and have been for years. Some of them have even paid off their homes and have been here for years and years. Many of my friends are born here. I’m tired of reading these negative remarks about Hispanics on this site. “Love your neighbor as yourself.” And remember, whatever bitterness, anger, racism
anyone sends out will come back to them one way or the other.
“and are probbably undocumentated aliens.”
I have a lot of Hispanic friends and they are all legal. Most of them are born here, the once who are not have lived here many years and are decent, hard working people. Many of my friends also own property and many of them have paid off their mortgages. It is true that there are illegals here as well
as bad Hispanics but don’t assume everyone who is Hispanic is illegal. “Love your neighbor as yourself.”
If you didn’t pay them to mow your lawn, they wouldn’t be there to start with.
You shouldn’t have to explain supply and demand to people on a housing bubble blog: a demand for cheap labor from the rich and middle-class ensures you will get cheap labor. What do you think, the cheap labor are going to live 300 miles away?
Local observation that ties into the “How are these FB’s still holding on?” questions on other threads.
Local first time spec builder who is presently stuck with his reduced-to-break-even-price house told me today he hasn’t been paying is CC bills.
This while he was charging a $600 item to it.
What was that $600 item? A “want”, or a “need”?
A want.
“Statistics supplied by the New Hampshire Association of Realtors indicate areas where sales have increased: the Upper Valley, the Claremont area, Strafford County and the White Mountains, and areas where sales have fallen significantly: the Seacoast, the remainder of Rockingham County including greater Salem, Concord, and the Monadnock, North County and Lake Sunapee regions as well as the two largest cities: Manchester and Nashua.”
Increased sales in the cheap (and remote) areas and decreased sales in the expensive (it’s relative of course) areas.
There’s a lot of empty land in NH and the road infrastructure isn’t all that great to many places so I guess some are sacrificing location for lower housing prices. Probably a difficult decision to make given the severe winter weather here.
In the article regarding LA slowdown, the cities with price increases are the “bad” areas and prices are dropping in the better areas. AFAIK, this is how it’s “supposed” to happen. The top slows first.
What’s great about this blog is we can communicate with people from different parts of the country (and world!) and see that it’s NOT different here. Definitely a credit bubble. When will it burst????
Right ,Ca. Renter …. Palmdale went up 28% in the last 12 month .I almost fell off my chair. I’ts the law of mania ..All homes must reach bubble prices. I expected the top to slow first and come down first and the most , I expected the middle prices to be dead , and I expected the lower prices to still increase for a short while . Its not because I’m smart , its because that’s what happened in the last 2 downturns .
Sacramento Market: We have received a lot of media attention as a very likely bubble market. Fortune Magazine labeled us as one of 10 “Dead Zones” in the nation. The median sale price number just turned negative with a 6% drop under last year (July 05). It will get much worse, because prices “rose” thru Dec. 2005 By Dec., 2006, a 10-15% drop will show on the books. It is already baking in the cake, but needs more cooking. It is really getting much worse. All time record listings of 18,000 units (previous record of 13,500 in 1995?), slow sales and lots of seller denial. Sales are down about 35% over last year and will be dropping more. The builders are undercutting the individual home sellers, and still have more room to cut another $100,000 on a $450,000 house and STILL make 10-20% profit. Raw land for housing went as high as $800,000/acre, 18 months ago. Now, land is lucky to fetch $300,000/acre, IF there is a buyer. It is all coming back into balance, but will take 36 months to get there. I forcast a 38% total drop over this time. $400,000 homes will come back to $250,000, exactly where they were in 2003, after a year or two of the run up starting in 2001. It will be painful for some, exciting for others. Hang on.
John, in Rocklin…watch for the labor Day, 2006 real estate massacre. Vacation over, credit cards maxed out, kids back in school, arms being reset, forclosures up, gas prices up, sellers with listings older than 120 days will be the first to get the message, and then the bloodbath begins
And Property Taxes due in November/December. Those property tax statements always arrive in the mail in October, so that they would not be too far off from labor day weekend.
David, We went to a builder “Blowout Sale” on Saturday in LIncoln. Homes with “base prices” of $750,000 are being offered at $525,000 (2,500 sf). All the upgrades are included in the price! Many, many Flippers just completed purchases in this subdivision in April, May, June and July at “prices locked in a year ago”. Now, their recent purchases are worth $225,000 less than they paid. Ouch! 30% off. And here is the weird part: The discounted purchase prices still don’t make sense to buy at $200/sf, because the annual gross rent is only $9/sf, while annual owning costs are nealy $20/sf. Even after taxes, the cost to own is too high a premium, and you have to take the risk the house will be worth LESS next year. The builders will have to cut some more to make these homes “go away”. We will not see any appreciation in home prices for 10 years, just like 1990 to 1999!! And the risk of falling values is not theory, it is here. This bubble is leaking air badly, and dropping altitude by the minute.
There are still some hot neighborhoods in Rocklin, like the one I used to live in. Close to all scholls still sells fast.
However, Placer Co in general has over an eight moth supply of houssinf (up from 4 months a year ago) and the median has slipped 7%. (as of end of June ‘06)
off 8% since may 05- this is the highest median,fed funded zip in USA 22151
In my area I’m seeing a bit more inventory coming on the market, but pretty much the same old prices.
My parents, however, are being cold called on. They had a realtor stop at their house the other day. He told them he knew someone interested in a home like theirs (primarily because of the attached mother-in-law apartment). Realtor asked if they’d be willing to sell. My folks told him they’re planning on moving (into a retirement community) in about 18 months so they’re not really selling today, but would listen to offers. Thing is, I can NOT imagine my folks selling and renting until their home’s built so I don’t know how this will play out - if at all (their asking price is quite high - definitely more than I think it’s worth - but you never know…)
My sister and her husband had a bid accepted and went to preliminary contracts on a house in a Destin, Florida community called Kelly’s Plantation in early May. Their bid was subject to resolution of flood insurance (the house is in a flood plain evidently) which was up for renewal by the HOA.
This past week they received notification from the HOA that the flood insurance would increase from appoximately $2,000 to $8,500 if all owners participated. If a few of the owners back out then the premium would be close to $10,000. The flood insurance only provides $250,000 of coverage in a community of $700k to $1.5 m houses. Adding in increases in property insurance (+70%) and property taxes they backed out of the sale.
I should mention that they rent a 2,000 sq ft condo directly on the intercoastal in Ft. Walton Beach with a boat slip. They pay $1,600 per month which includes the boat slip for their ski boat!
So they got lucky by accident.
Not if they made their bid contingent on the flood insurance resolution– In that case I’d call it very smart!
Saw this listing in Vancouver, Canada:
(granite tops must also be a big deal in Canada)
Question may be which side is doing the stealing?
Note price is in Canadian Dollars, so there’s approximately 10 to 12% discount for the American buyers — ya!!!!!
———————————————————
OPEN HOUSE: Aug 12 12.30pm-2pm
Price $629,900.00
Finished Floor Area: 1070.0 sqft.
Age: 6
Property Type: Apartment
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: (Full:2, Half:0)
This is a STEAL! Just REDUCED! Rarely available - 2 bedroom/2 bathroom/2 parking overlooking park and with city and mountain skyline views! Great layout, spacio us room sizes, well-appointed with granite countertops, gas range, breakfast bar, gas f/p, balcony. Excellent building! Fantastic location - close to Granville Island, art galleries & trendy South Granville shops!
—————————————-
trendy South Granville shops
mutter, mutter, mutter . . . I’ve gotta get one of those plastic keyboard covers so this thing is coffee-proof.
PRICES FALLING FAST IN FLORIDA:
Just a sad tale from a fellow worker here in LARGO, FL.
For 3 years, I have been a “housing bear” and predicted the booming market would not last, and prices would fall.
Laughter, all around.
Yesterday, I was told this sad tale:
My companion got an appraisal last year, thinking about selling his house; value = $290,000. Average house here in Pinellas County.
About 6 months ago, we had it listed and got an offer of $230,000.
The loan company had another appraisal at 250,000. It may have been vice versa, but the sale fell through, as the buyer did not qualify.
Just recently, based on the $230,000/250,000 valuation, he decided since it did not sell to get a “cash out financing”. This required a new appraisal.
the NEW VALUE is…………………….$187,000.
For those with bad math skills, that’s 290,000 - 197,000 = 103K, in less than one year.
OR, the “value” has dropped by about 1/3 or 33%.
This is a HUGE drop in ONE YEAR………
The homeowner was needless-to-say disheartened, and i actually felt bad for him. He came into my office after getting the bad news to let me know I was right after all.
This is only one story, but I expect to hear many more.
Have a good day.
Diogenes./
I talked to a recent buyer of a condo in Irvine, CA. The condo sat 100 DOM at $760k with no offers. They reduced it to $680k and had 5 bids the day after it was reduced! The winner offered more than the 680k asking. So yes, things are still rolling here in Irvine, and an 80k reduction will bring in the buyers like bees to honey.
The seller had purchased the place for 420k in 2003 and did nothing to the place. I personally don’t see how the place appreciated 300k in that time, but the buyer thought he got a steal.
There are some really upscale planned communities along barranca rd/pkway in Irvine. One community has their own little lake with an exercise walkway/path, clubhouse and the whole thing connected via shaded walkway to a low-impact, tree-shaded shopping center/professional office bldgs.
Irvine is still state-of the art as far as carefully landscaped, planned residential/mixed-use communities.
Here in the Irvine 92604, looks like 45% of the listings are now reduced, about same for Irvine overall. Talk about a change! 9 months ago, maybe 10% reduced. SFH down the street from me shaved $120k down to 800 for their sale.
Peter– nothing unusual about the new stuff on Barranca, if you’re talking the stuff going in on the old Tustin Marine base. Ridiculous prices, midget backyards, itsy bitsy garages. Personally, the older neighborhoods here are MUCH better.
Sorry, i don’t know OC as well as LA area. Do travel occasionally thru Oc here and there, and have noticed the recent constuction activity at the old Tustin marine base. That is a huge amount of mostly vacant property: will it be for mostly new housing or for industrial use?
Also have noticed a surge of new building and construction right near the 5/405 connection(EL Toro Y) Lots of hi-tech,hi-end companies located there, or locating. Technology drive(off Barranca pkway and the 133) seems to be thriving as a center for hi-tech.
I do not think that South OC RE will decline as drastically as other Scal regions, thou prices still a bit high. Have been to a lot of industrial parks all over scal and South Irvine/lake forest industrial region scores very high in the abundance of hi-tech/hi-end companies, such as Parker Hannafin, ect.
Ever heaar of BUYER’s REMORSE???
“I talked to a recent buyer of a condo in Irvine, CA. The condo sat 100 DOM at $760k with no offers. They reduced it to $680k and had 5 bids the day after it was reduced! The winner offered more than the 680k asking. So yes, things are still rolling here in Irvine, and an 80k reduction will bring in the buyers like bees to honey.” The seller accepted an offer!
This ain’t sold till the check is cashed. This condo in is escrow, probably for 60 days. I hope the seller got a very large deposit,
because if there was ever a time for buyer’s remorse, the next 60 days will be it.
“The LA Times. “Within Los Angeles County, there are at least a dozen ZIP Codes where prices have started to falter year over year, according to DataQuick. The biggest drop was in Torrance, where the median price of existing single-family houses fell 7.4% to $560,000 in the May 1-July 31 period, DataQuick said.”
Interesting Data quick numbers on LA county ZIP code prices.
Torrance, supposely a solid middleclass community located in the Southbay area, has dropped to ave median price of $560.00.
Compare this to Average Medians for zip codes 90043(liemert park/hyde park/crenshaw district in southeast LA , which rose 25% yoy and are now $550.000. Or ave medians for zip 90018(Jefferson park, south of 10 fwy and just west of USC area, also known as Adams district), which are $525,000.
Jeffersom park is not exactly a clean middle class burg: it has many blighted areas typical of SCentral LA., though to qualify this statement there are some respectable victorian-type homes in gated communites in the Adams district. Still, being only $35,000 lower that Torrance median price is surprizing, especailly in that Torrance abuts Redondo beach and Palos Verde.
Notice Claremont ave median dropped to $583,000, Not much above the medians for LA zips 90043 and 90018, and only a couple hundred thousand dollars difference from the worst Zip code area of La, the dreaded watts district, coming in at $383,000 median.
Looks like the average median prices for the good, medium and bad parts of LA county are all merging together, coalescing if you will, into a single average median price.
Notice that Compton ave median of $400,000 for zips 90220 and 90222 are approaching such respectable areas as Whittier, Diamond Bar, and Torrance. Are You Kidding?
Sorry for the typo error, it’s $560,000 average median Torrance price.
The part of Torrance zip code area(90501) which saw the 7.4% price drop YOY to $560,000 is the eastern,heavlly industrialized Part of Torrance abuting the blighted Harbor Gateway, which would account for the poor price showing in this part of Torrance. The western, more affluent sections of Torrance are still well-maintained and solidly middle-class.(zips 90505,50503, and 90277).
Been a long time (18 yrs) but there used to be a HUGE variation in Torrance. E/NE side, next to the unincorporated area was great if you wanted to score some crack, or needed some target practice. Not exactly primo area. While the SW side (Walteria) actually FELT like a neighborhood. You could walk around in the evening, under the trees that arched over the streets.
If the GF’s are paying almost as much for the banger areas as that kind of an area even I have seriously underestimated just how stupid they are.
Lived in that part of torrance back in the mid-late 80,s.
Very depressing part of town. If you went down Carson blvd, pass the Harbor-ucla medical center, all way to western, then went south to sepulveda,or took 223 st same route, you would need an anti-depressant pill.
I’ve been following townhouses in Quaker Hill in Alexandria since 1/2005. At that time, cheapest houses there were listed at $520K, but went for more after bidding wars. Summer 2005, cheapest were in the high 500s. This Spring, mid 500s. A month or two ago, sellers could still get around 530K. Now, someone is advertising one, originally listed at 530K, for $515 plus 5K closing cost help. In short, prices are now significantly below what they were in 1/2005, worse yet if you consider inflation. Still higher monthly payments though given interest rates, so I expect prices will be under 500K by the Fall.
I’ve been wondering when the media would start to show price drops in Torrance. I lived there between March 2003 and April of this year. The canary in the coal mine is on Torrance Blvd near Amie - Beach City Bungalows. Nice view of the noisiest street in the city and the mall. I can just imagine the Harley Davidson set roaring by at midnight. Priced in the high $600s, the builder says. I drove past at 10:30 at night 2 weeks ago and less than a third had lights on. And Torrance is not necessarily a sleepy city.
Also Manhattan Beach prices fell 3% that period (from that article), which is interesting. This is only the beginning. My buddy in Hermosa Beach is anticipating a half off sale in his area in a few years.
That part of Torrance has some really heavy traffic especially on nights and weekends. Worked as a manager at a Dominos pizza real close by in 1996, and Friday and Sat night traffic real bad. The Teenagers i worked with were really spoiled middle-class brats.
Torrance is a well-kept solidly middle class burg but it is rather boring. Only entertainment for the young and restless is to do nightclub hops in the Beach cities.
“A growing stockpile of homes for sale is putting pressure on sellers to cut their asking prices. That’s becoming evident even in downtown Los Angeles. ‘Downtown has gone into a state of paralysis because prices are starting to come down,’ said Stephen May, a veteran real estate broker who specializes in the area. The dearth of demand and rising supply prompted May to advise one client seeking to sell her condo unit to list it at just $10,000 more than what she paid a year ago.”
No Kidding! There must be a ton of high-rise expensive condo apts all over the downtown area. One i know of is the Promenade towers off 1st st or Temple ave. And They are still adding more supply, not just in dwtn but more condos/apts coming online around USC and along Figueroa st close to the Coliseum/exposition park area (some may be Student apts).
Lots of recently-built condos went up or are going up in the construction-mad bunker hill redevelopment zone just west of the 110 fwy. And even more units being added just to the west along Wilshire blvd/near union st.
Looks like we will see a Condo Glut/oversupply in Dwtn LA very soon.
“only” 10K more than she paid.
There will be some progress when these idiots are advised to take a loss now to avoid a worse loss later.
agreed.
We have been watching the market in Albuquerque for one year now. Last summer the prices went up about 20% and if you wanted to buy, you needed to find the home within the first 1-2 days of listing. Many times there would be bidding on the home.
The prices got to the point that we both decided that we didn’t want to commit that much of our income to housing. We moved into a rental (2,300 sq ft) with a market value of about $250,000 (last year). Our rental payment is just over $1,000 and we figure that it is 1/2 or less of what it would cost to finance the house. The owners are speculators.
When we moved in the neighborhood, the sign at the entrance said homes from the $200’s to the $400’s. In the last month the sign was changed to 6 bedroom homes for $864 per month. We have noticed that most of the people moving in are renting (over half). I feel sorry for those that bought early on because their nice community is now turning into a rental market.
“Wow” is the only thing you can say about the statistics contained in a Sun story this week on what’s going on in downtown Lowell. The stats, compiled by the city’s planning and development office, show a remarkable change in the makeup of the core of the city based on the folks moving in and buying the upscale artist lofts that have dominated our re-development over the last several years.
Nearly 50 percent have incomes of better than $70,000 and nearly 30 percent make $100,000 to $150,000 a year.
Nearly 70 percent have at least a bachelor’s degree and 3 percent have doctorates.
Most of them paid $200,000 to $500,000 for the units and most listed affordability as the key reason for choosing downtown Lowell.
If this trend continues, as the story indicated, we are going to see a lot more shops and restaurants in the city.
http://www.lowellsun.com/fastsearchresults/ci_4163127
We were in Downtown Lowell a few weeks ago and the main thought walking around some of the backstreets was worry about getting mugged. There were a lot of shops on that street but they were all closed that afternoon.
I have been tallying MLS listings for 6 cities in the Bay Area: Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara and Milpitas. In a single day yeseterday (8/11), there were 25 new listings but 9 of them were relisted with a lower price (avg. 2% price drop). Another 11 houses also cut their prices. Houses that are on the market actively have been on the market for over 30 days on average, unheard of in the past couple of years. What a change!
Most people here in Savannah, GA still aren’t using the term “housing bubble,” though they do talk about how much housing prices have gone up and how long houses are sitting on the market now.
There’s a small town outside of Savannah called Pooler where builders have filled in some swamp land (not kidding), built houses, and sold them to transplants from other states. Old timers here think that is nuts, but they have not put 2-and-2 together yet.
What many people are aware of around here is how high Georgia ranks in the nation regarding appraisal fraud. Here’s an interesting article from the August Chronicle entitled, “State real estate official charged with malpractice”–the dateline is actually South Carolina. This should get some people talking. The topic is over-valuation of land appraisals.
http://ap.augustachronicle.com/pstories/state/sc/20060812/80117453.shtml
I wonder just how much that Georgia swamp land is really worth.
Just to clarify: To my knowledge, the houses are all built above the 100 year flood line. It is just that the lots are part swamp.
I used to spend time at Tybee Island when I was a kid. I recently saw some article about million dollar houses built there. Tell me that’s not true.
Actually, Sandra Bullock discovered Tybee a few years ago and purchased there. It’s changed quite a bit since then. Condos galore, and those cute but tiny shore homes that you probably remember have been replaced by large homes built right up to the property line.
The ocean in that area is very poluted now. I haven’t been to the Marine Science Center lately, but the last time I was there (about two years ago) they were talking about bad it was. I guess that in our recent housing frenzy things like polution don’t matter, though.
Of course Sandra probably doesn’t go swimming in the ocean at Tybee anyway…
Regarding my previous post–here are the numbers for the “single-family new house construction building permits” from Pooler, GA for the past few years:
1999: 163 buildings, average cost: $63,000
2000: 276 buildings, average cost: $65,900
2001: 230 buildings, average cost: $102,300
2002: 245 buildings, average cost: $160,200
2003: 324 buildings, average cost: $135,500
2004: 304 buildings, average cost: $136,800
Sorry, could not find these stats for 2005, but as you can see there is no bubble here in south GA!
I live in Pinellas County too. In my neighborhood (St. Pete Beach) there are a ton of houses for sale and all of them have been on the market for about 8 months. I’ve seen so many houses change realtor signs/price points. Some of them have tried to rent. Some have tried FSBO. Now a bunch of for rent signs have gone up.
I believe that some of the towns won’t get hit as hard because of the tourist value and coastal location, but when it comes to places like Largo, I think it’s going to get really bad. The truth is is that most of those home should be in the 100-200 range.
Have you seen all of those for sales signs in front of those brand new townhomes on Cleveland Ave? It’s crazy.
I don’t buy the argument that everyone is moving down here either. I know a bunch of snowbirds at retirement age that were going to buy but now have decided to buy in TN and rent in FL for one month during peak season. Every other Floridian I meet is talking about “checkin’ out NC or TN.”
It’s not about money people. It’s a about value. Florida isn’t worth it anymore for lots of people.
Clarification (since I’m not even sure what my last sentence meant): Yes, it’s about money, but it’s more about common sense. What I meant to say is that I know lots of people who can afford what is out there but are passing because of a variety of conditions, one of which is the current bubble. Even after the bubble, you still have insurance and tax issues at play (especially in FL).
This bubble has so many factors beyond price it’s not even funny.
Northern and Central VA
My step mother is a real estate agent in Fredericksburg VA and has seen a pronounced slowing in the outer rungs of the DC market. She’s still holding on to the dream though. Not that she’s killed it in the RE market by any means. She did pretty well last year. But this year the combination of her generaly honest disposition and a dropping market has started to make things tough.
But not as tough as life is for a fellow I talked with yesterday who is an architect in Charlottesville who build 2 high end spec homes in Northern Virginia looking to cash in. He’s sitting on these homes burning margin with every month. He got some raw land that he’s sitting on that he likely will not be able to sell at a price acceptable to him.
Recession’s a-comin’.
Hook em up with VA Investor. She’s got heloc checkbooks burning a hole in her pocket, plus she’s bubble proof, recession proof, has the answer to every question, is worth over $1B and has never lost a dime.
She’ll fix everything.
BAHAHAHAHHA!
Why are you so bitter? Have a little heart txchick. Life is too short to be so ugly. Don’t cream me, just lighten up a little.
Go get ‘em tiger! Don’t mess with TX!
The change I’m seeing is that the realtors are getting more aggressive in selling, and in getting listings… a few months ago there were a LOT of Help-U-Sell and FSBO signs out, now, not so much. More listed properties. Have the FSBO’s found out that people aren’t going to be walking up to their door with offers?
Muggy in St Pete Beach… my mom lives in St. Pete, wants to move out, but not selling yet. Too many similar houses have been on the market for too long.
A week ago there was an article which spoke of multiple building violations in Fairax County relating to height and square footage. Today there is this followup: http://www.wtop.com/?nid=600&sid=879976 Apparently, the County is justifying its failure to hold the building plans to Code because they didn’t want to “irritate” the builders. Maybe next time a speeder is caught, they won’t issue a ticket for fear of “irritating” the driver. Or maybe that goes for bank robbers too.
Can’t wait for the title companies to start requiring proof of compliance with Code before issuing title insurance, either.
Yesterday I went to an “art festival” in a small town called index, about 1/2 hr or 45 min northeast of Seattle. A town along the way called Monroe has been regarded as the next *HUGE* RE growth area. Because of course, Seattle is different..
I was shocked to see a guy, an actual walking human being, standing out on the main highway holding a Centex sign pointing the way to “New Homes!” Plus TONS of new for sale signs elwhere along the way.
Yet I turned to the RE section of one of our two Seattle daily papers and the tone was all about “Buy now! Before you get priced out! Here look at this wonderful McMansion development about to come on line! Very Desireable!!!!”
/Seattle’s MSM REALLY REALLY blows.
//I’m looking at you “The Times” and PI!
//Not to mention all the TV news
Glad to report the bubble is huge here in Northern California.
Realtor Quote from Chico, CA (home of Chico State University):
“Price gains in 2005 have been reduced to about 2%. The market has seen a reduction in average sold price from the peak of 2005. But the average sold price currently is still above the average price of 2005 by approx. 2%. Number of homes sold compared to last year is down significantly, approximately 25%. Number of homes on the market has increased significantly from about 150 in July of 2005 to about 500 in July 2006. Marketing time in all price catagories has increased significantly as well. The market is still very healthy just not wildly charging like the last 5 years.”-Peter Tichinin
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~Chico~petertichinin
Just checked MLS, that number of homes for sale is up to 550. If my math is right, and not fuzzy Realtor math were talking about a 366% increase in ONE YEAR!!! and dont forget all the FSBO’s!
I rent from an out of town investor that bought in fall 2005,it makes me laugh!! He has already lost 10k with comparable listings today without realtor fees. Also, reported recently was that the market in the Chico,CA area is 61% overpriced compared to incomes.
The sidelines are the place to be right now, no matter where you are at.
In the SF bay area, West San Jose, 95129 and Cupertino 95014 are seeing drops on Mlslistings.com. One orignaly listed for 899 is availalble now for 789. another one which had a drop of 5%.. A friend of mine got his home reappraised 100k below the 1.5M he paid last year. Who said Cupertino doesnt ever go down
Muggy,
concerning this thought:
“I believe that some of the towns won’t get hit as hard because of the tourist value and coastal location, but when it comes to places like Largo, I think it’s going to get really bad. The truth is is that most of those home should be in the 100-200 range.”
You are right that the Coasts always have a higher price per comparable unit, but take a drive next weekend, or some weekday.
Start down at St. Pete Beach and drive up Gulf Blvd. to North end of Sand Key.
Do you remember 2 years ago? You could hardly find a place for sale. If you did, their were 5 vultures standing in line with contracts.
Now? Multiple signs “for sale” “for rent” for miles and miles.
They have paid too much. They need to unload.
I looked at a small wood frame bungalow in Madeira Beach in 2001.
It was about 135k. Two blocks off the beach. By late 2003, the same place was asking $498k. I laughed at the listing agent when she told me the price. She said they would only go up and i had better buy now or “I WOULD BE PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET FOREVER”> We all know the story.
I was accosted by a street peddler leaving my office on Friday as I attempted to get onto Ulmerton Rd. Condos for Sale.. Newly refurbished…..All the usual crap. He was handing out flyers from the street median at 66th and Ulmerton. Not a good sign of a strong market.
The coasts won’t go down as far, but I will wager good odds (you pick them) that they will show the first signs of resistance. I believe we are already seeing that…………..and all the NEW LUXURY CONDOS…………………..fuggid aboudit.
shhhhh…we did it - almost! we put an offer in on a piece of vacant land (since we want to custom build), on Thurs. this past week. now mind you, we’ve sold ALL our investment properties between 2003 and now, with NO intention of even looking at investment property at current levels. we have been selling to all the GFs we could find. when everyone was buying - we were SELLING!
anyway…we put the offer in 30% below asking, and justified it with recent comps. and strong rationale. the offer was countered with a 3% reduction from list! the sellers told us they want to come to terms. my wife had the quote of the week: “we can come to terms, so long as their our terms.” love that MBA sweetheart of mine
needless to say, we’re still looking, but it felt great having our realtor ™ make a bonafide offer on our behalf with a straight face and confidence that we were offering a fair price.
side note - our realtor also has an MBA and 30 years corporate experience. I personally interviewed him. like mrincomestream recommended - get the value out of your realtor, or get a new realtor. the bad ones give the group a bad rap, but the great ones can offer insight and knowledge that even a seasoned investor appreciates.
dd
Quote from above:
She said they would only go up and i had better buy now or “I WOULD BE PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET FOREVER”
Do you think that any of the people spouting this realize how stupid it is? How in the hell can you be priced out of all housing forever? Yes, certain areas (SMALL areas, like 5th Ave/Palm Beach Island/Beverly Hills) that certainly is the case, but what would happen if you were priced out of a large area forever? Of course, the area would wither and die; all the industry would dry up, and until the people who lived there died (probably from starvation becuase nobody could work in the grocery store), no homes would change hands.
People, this is never going to happen! If large area (say more then 100sq miles) becomes unaffordable to working class people (median HH income of 50K, at least here in S. FL) it will die.
It just makes me laugh like crazy when I hear people say that. Sure, I am going to priced out of Florida (one of the biggest states in the damn union, with an overabundance of waterfront) forever. Right.. Keep that fantasy going a little longer.
That’s exactly the realization that first led me to bubble blogs. I believed all of that “priced out forever” crapola for awhile when the increases were only moderately insane (pre-2004), but once SFHs in anonymous suburbs of Washington DC reached $500k and $600, I started asking “who the hell is buying these?” My wife and I had a lot of financial trouble some years ago (all of our student-loan debt didn’t result in the incomes we had hoped right off the bat), so I just figured that we were behind the curve when average houses were $300-400k. But at the half-million mark, you really do start entering “rich folks” territory, and there are only so many of those people to go around.
Yup, 500K is really pushing the edge of “very comfortable”, which is a polite way of saying, “little bit rich”.
Take the very, very inaccurate rule. To own a house that costs 500K, with a traditional morgage, you have to expect to pay 5000/month on housing costs. No, this is not all morgage. This is repairs/upkeep, morgage, taxes, insurance, etc. Its a rule of thumb that is often used (or used to be) to estimate total home payment.
So, 5K/month, works out to 60K/year in housing expenses. Your not supposed to spend more then 30% of your income on housing, so you should be making about 180K/year to afford that home. Let me tell you, as someone who is coming closer to that number, I do not feel ready for 5K a month in housing expenses; maybe at 200K/year I would feel more ready to take on that level of commitment, but not yet.
Now, think about the number of people who are making 150K+/year. Its very rarified air; not many people anywhere make that kind of money. In Palm Beach, the median HH income is around 45K/year. It takes nearly triple that number to afford a home that is 100K over the median price? Either we are way underpaid (by at least half), or there is a serious bubble..
Don’t worry, if we are priced out forever; those who are not will just keep renting us their 5 million dollar homes for 4K a month. Works for me.