A ‘Price To Paradise’ For Florida
The Tallahassee Democrat reports from Florida. “The downturn in Florida’s real-estate market hit home Friday when The St. Joe Co. laid off employees in three divisions statewide. ‘We’re responding to the business cycle,’ spokesman Chris Corr said. ‘There’s been a slowdown in the Florida real-estate market. We believe it’s cyclical.’”
“‘We have had a work-force reduction, but I can’t give you exact numbers,’ Corr said. ‘There are employees who have not yet heard about it.’ Teary-eyed workers carrying office boxes outside the company’s Tallahassee office on Esplanade Way about 1 p.m. declined to comment.”
“Two men climbing into a pickup truck in the company’s parking lot said they’d been laid off but declined further comment. ‘Do I work for St. Joe’s? Not any more,’ one of the men said. ‘I got a good severance package, though.’”
“St. Joe owns 825,000 acres, mostly in Northwest Florida. It is seeking approval to build 44,000 homes. The company recently announced that its net income was nearly half of what it was during the same quarter in 2005.”
“St. Joe is not the first developer in Florida to lay off employees this year. The South Florida Sun-Sentineloted that G.L. Homes in Sunrise laid off 68 workers in June. In addition, WCI Communities, a Bonita Springs-based builder, cut jobs in July but would not disclose the number.”
The Miami Herald. “Kevin Kilpatrick he moved to Tennessee from Plantation. Kilpatrick had a new career (that) meant he was free to relocate. The home price differences made the decision a no-brainer. In Broward, the median home price is more than $377,000. In southern Tennessee, he has 10 acres and a 4,000-square-foot home built two years ago. The price: $280,000.”
“‘We just felt we could have a better quality of life,’ by moving, he said.” “There are always people moving in and out of South Florida, but in the last year experts are seeing powerful anecdotal evidence of an outbound migration trend. Indeed, South Florida is once again losing its allure for the middle class.”
“Lisa Kirkham is an example. She recently left Cutler Ridge for Maryland. Her mortgage payment kept rising because of windstorm insurance. ‘I don’t know how people can afford it.’”
“In 2001, the Florida Association of Realtors estimated that the median South Florida home cost $158,000. That was about 7 percent more than the national median. With 10 percent down, that would have meant a monthly payment of $898.80 for principal and interest at prevailing mortgage rates then.”
“Today’s median home price of $378,000 locally is 73 percent above the U.S. average. It also means that principal and interest total $2,150 monthly. And that’s after a 10 percent down payment, $37,800.”
“‘The hardest thing for them is coming up with a down payment,’ said Kimberly August, a mortgage planner.”
“Could housing prices deflate? ‘In most cases, it takes significant job losses, or a combination of overbuilding, modest job losses and population outflow, to drive house prices down substantially,’ a Harvard study concluded.”
“Although there is growing evidence of overbuilding in condos, it isn’t clear whether that is the answer to the housing affordability problem. In fact, even as the new buildings soar, sales of existing condos were down more than 30 percent in June in both Miami-Dade and Broward.”
“Scott Leidel took another approach. He drove off. A native of Miami, he found himself priced out of his hometown. ‘It was either move to another place and pay off all our debts, or stay in Miami and get further in debt,’ he said. Leidel sold his Sweetwater condo for $190,000, and decamped to a Chicago suburb. His new abode is twice as big as his old condo and cost $20,000 less.”
“Certainly, South Florida remains an immensely appealing location. And some professionals think the problem may be overestimated. ‘I personally don’t know anyone who has left,’ said John Beauchamp, (at) Fort Lauderdale’s Intercoastal Realty. Beauchamp does think high real estate taxes are a growing issue, but of home prices, he said: ‘I’m a positive person, and my answer is, there’s a price to paradise.’”
‘There’s been a slowdown in the Florida real-estate market. We believe it’s cyclical.’”
When prices go up, and RE is raging it will be permanent. A new paradigm.
When RE slows and prices are about to fall, it is cyclical.
Hmmm…
clouseau
Traffic, hurricanes, houses that all look the same, strip malls, gentrification…..is this Paradise? Yes, if you can afford to live in one of the few truly nice areas on the coast. Anywhere out west in southeast florida….shoot, ou may as well be living in Kansas, except for the weather.
Your forgot: bugs, 8 months of insufferable heat, rampant illegal immigration, insane insurance prices.
‘In most cases, it takes significant job losses, or a combination of overbuilding, modest job losses and population outflow, to drive house prices down substantially,’ a Harvard study concluded’
The Resolution Trust Corporation did a study of population changes during the Texas RE bust and found that net outflows were only 1.7%. But that was enough.
‘I personally don’t know anyone who has left,’ said John Beauchamp, (at) Fort Lauderdale’s Intercoastal Realty.
LOL, this about sums it up. Of course you haven’t, all your freinds are employed in RE. After making a killing the last few years they have all said,”I am fine I will just hang tight thru the rough patch”..ie 6 months/wait til next year. I got news for ya buddy, 4 years from the peak for florida looks like 2009.
Of course some of these guys will be buying the foreclosures on the court house steps from the FB’s they conned. I’m really starting to hate Realtors more and more thru this downturn.
OCBear
I’m really starting to hate Realtors more and more thru this downturn.
Only thing lower than a realtor is a mortgage lender, and the crooked rubber stamping appraiser in his or her hip pocket.
Bottom feeders-all.
Not ALL of us are bottom feeders. While I admit I’m not a “mainstream” realtor, and I only work w/referals, my advice to all who come to me (for the last 8 months) is to rent. Of the 4 or 5 buyers (including my FB nephew who works w/an hustling agent) my advice has been to rent. Of the 5 or 6 sellers I turned down all who would not drop their price to a realistic number. Right now the Sarasota\Manatee area is DEAD. And like many on this blog I believe a true buyers market is at least 2 years away.
Know anything about JOE? I keep waiting for it to follow WCI down, but it just does not want to roll over. While South Florida condos are ground zero of the housing bubble, the idea of building in the panhandle away from the water sounds pretty bad to me.
Jungle Jim -
Do you have contact info, e.g. a link for your agency? I’m thinking I’d like to buy in that area when the time is right, perhaps 3-5 years from now, as we have family in that area. You seem like a sensible realtor.
P.S. please post an acknowledgement if you see this post. For some reason my posts sometimes don’t show up, so I’m not sure if they work or not.
I friend of mine is in Senior Management at St. Joe, well at least as of last week…I haven’t heard anything else.
If you want to see a company that is sucking wind right now take a look at the Wharf in Gulf Shores, AL. Based on the St. Joe model, but being developed by guys who build Walmarts and strip malls. As that has a whole lot to do with luxury 2nd homes they should be just fine, yessireee!
http://www.thewharfal.com
Michigan i seeing all of that.
Plenty of job losses and there is more to come. And they have been building condos like crazy near my home. Not to mention the people leaving the state as fast as they can. We may not have had the appreciation of “bubble areas” but we are seeing major price declines.
I think Massachusetts has lost something like 5% of the population since 2001. Things should get interesting here in 2007.
California also lost something like 2% during the ‘great’ bust of the mid 1990s.
‘I’m a positive person, and my answer is, there’s a price to paradise.’”
too funnny…
1) too bad the price for paradise is less than you think it is.
2) are you sure FL is paradise?
clouseau
The price of paradise! I guess watching your house value fall 25% in the next year is OK because you live beautiful in Hurricane Alley
It should come as no surprise to anyone that the only people who regularly use the word “paradise,” besides Florida realtors, are religious fundamentalists of various stripes. Perhaps Mr. Beauchamp also believes there are seventy virgins awaiting him in a Rapture where a thousand people a day move to a state where there are no ARM re-sets.
too funny!
Oh come on …..The speculators drove up the prices in the
last 2 years and the builders built to many condos . You combine all this with the high property taxes and insurance rates and it’s not attractive to buy there anymore .
The people in the news can say anything they want ,but these people were a bunch of jerks to think speculators ,snowbirds and babyboomers would just keep coming and pay any price tag the greedy demanded .
You guys are right on. The paradise is only partial. Hurricanes, Red Tide, Excessive Development, and now, Overpriced Homes.
FYI, for those interested, I put up a site dealing with the bubble specifically here in Florida. I’ve employed this site as the “gold standard”, focusing on the Sunshine State.
Click on my name to go there. I’d love to hear your opinions on the Florida bubble.
U-Haul, 10′ truck, Chattanooga to Miami: $208.00
U-Haul, 10′ truck, Miami to Chattanooga: $1090.00
(For Miami to Chicago, the it was $710.00 and $1149.00–less impressive then Tenessee, but still significant.)
U Haul prices are great indicators of moving trends. 1000 people a day moving to Florida my a$$!
Couldn’t help myself: Seattle, WA to Dallas, TX: $1650. Dallas, TX to Seattle, WA: $995. Wow.
One more Uhaul:
Seattle to Spokane: $411. (four hundred eleven)
Spokane to Seattle: $79. (seventy nine)
mmmmm….
I just rented a U-Haul 5×8 Trailer 2 weeks ago and the quote for Aug 21 is about the same [as July 31] from Austin,TX to Gardena,CA: $61 one way rental.
From Gardena to Austin: $694. More than 10x the price!!!
The “U-haul” index is considered an accurate indicator of job flow (not population if there are substantial retirements in a region, e.g., the recent ones at GM).
It looks like the trend is away from the coasts (as we would expect).
Alas, our friends are going to think we’re nuts again. First it was real estate (which is finally coming to our predicted downturn). Now… population migration. I’ll talk about it, but boy will I get funny looks.
Neil
Los Angeles to Dallas: $1,893.00
Dallas to Los Angeles: $632.00
St. Joe’s thinks real estate is slowing? This can’t be right. Haven’t they heard the news? 1,000 people a day are moving to Florida.
And what is this about Florida’s disappearing middle class? Last I checked, Florida had a vibrant economy with lots of turf mowing, fast-food and bedpan changing jobs.
Am I missing something?
Agreed - those 1000 people per day need a place to buy…I just read that last week from a home seller.
guess the land factory has competition
I love living down here in general. I was born and raised down here and with the exception of my college years in Boston, have lived here all my life. This story is dead on the mark about costs. My insurance is in the process of doubling to almost $3,500 a year (despite the fact I live in a new construction home built to the strict, new codes in 2004 … and despite the fact all that happened in Hurricane Wilma was one palm tree blew down). The taxes are out of sight — a little over $7,500/yr. — and that’s with us “locking in” the 2003 home prices/tax value by signing our purchase contract back then (when prices were just rising, not getting really, really nutty). Buying this same house now would be completely out of reach without taking on a suicide mortgage. As far as I’m concerned, this housing bubble has caused a lot more problems than even some of us realize.
Lets see;…About a thousand a month for taxes and insurance….How much does it cost to rent that crib ???
I’ve seen asking rents for simliar property in the $2,000 - $2,500/month range. Since we bought in 2003 (at a low 30-year fixed rate and roughly 20% down), even WITH taxes and insurance, we’re about even with rents. So we’re certainly not FBs like a lot of people around here.
But basically anyone buying this same house today (using my best guess as to its value based on recent asking prices/general knowledge of the area, etc.) would be looking at a PI payment of about $2,800. That’s assuming, generously, they had 20% for a down payment. Add in the taxes and insurance and you can see why I would never buy if I were shopping for a place to live now.
Well Mike, when property backslides they can buy the property for less, have less property taxes and then refi their mortgage later on for a cheaper rate and will come out ok. Time can be your ally and it can be your biggest enemy.
Mike,
I don’t be the one to piss on the parade from my balcony but…
I rent my penthouse condo in Aventura for $1500. Its in a Turnberry building, and its furnished with artwork, plasmas and designer furniture. Maybe I got a good/great deal.
Next door and throughout the building the same/similar square foot floorplans were advertised for $2500-$2800. This last week I saw the same places on the bulletin board renting for $1800-$2000, a couple still had the original high prices but they obviously get no play.
Even at these prices the rate is too high for the average renter. They will likely remain vacant until after Hurricane Season and then maybe they can rent for vacation use.
As I see it there are 2 MAJOR problems:
1) For a landlord to get 1st, last and security and get a “desirable” tenant (with good credit, verifiable income, someone who can get approved by the condo association) that currently doesn’t own a home means he/she is fishing in a small pool of people. The vast majority of these people own. Sans the bubble sitters and you are going to be sitting by the phone and praying it rings.
2) Most people don’t make the money to afford a $2000-$2500 apartment unless there are a half dozen of them sharing as roommates. That means alot more wear and tear on the unit.
Thanks for your comments. I do NOT know whether these 2000-2500 asking rents are the ACTUAL rents these people get when (or if) they get tenants. I can only go by what I see in the ads since rental rates aren’t public.
But to go back to my personal situation, as vocal as I’ve been for more than a year about how I expect the South FL housing market to tank, I just am not in a position to sell and rent. And I have no financial NEED to move like a lot FBs … as I pointed out, my wife and I put down 20% on 2003 prices and used low-rate, fixed 30-year financing with no subsequent home equity “liberation”
via HELOC, etc. So we have a very sizable equity cushion. Throw in the fact we are happy where we live, have two small children who we can hopefully see off to college in this house, etc., and I’m content to just ride this out.
Now if I were SINGLE and just looking for housing after moving to FL? Fuggedddabbout it. Wouldn’t buy until 2008 at the earliest, most likely.
I hear ya Mike, your situation is better than the average bear! My wife and I are lucky in that we have no kids, she has a dog…which pretty much means WE have a dog. I have suggested giving the furry guy up for adoption, to which she openly ponders how to kill me in my sleep and get away with it. So the dog stays.
But if we didn’t have high paying positions (yep there are still a few out there, but they are scarce) then staying here would make no sense at all.
Last night we discussed the 3 year plan and it DOES NOT include staying in Miami. For now I am happy to let my landlord subsidize my rent, which when I consider that the condo association alone is $720/month, even if he has a Voodoo loan Neg-Am Hybrid or some other un-Godly mortgage he has to be losing a few grand a year. Well the guy is well off so I guess having a few underperforming assets in the portfolio is acceptable.
The things is where to go when we leave here? I like urban centers and prefer if they are not surrounded by suburbs populated by people who still think there are WMDs in Iraq (i.e. Texas). Which means affordable housing = renting from a FB. But it just lacks that desperation of ownership feeling. Oh well…..
I agree with everything you say, but get a little irrated by anyone who complains about Florida taxes. 2.2% in Broward County is a lot less than the 3.5 % in most cities in Texas. Also, since you don’t pay state income tax you still come out WAY ahead of a state like California that has both property AND state income taxes. Think about having a property tax bite of around 1.5% on a 700K house in San Diego (mello roos district), then add on the 5.5 to 9% income tax (depending on income level) . Ouch!
“Could housing prices deflate? ‘In most cases,
1 - it takes significant job losses,
2 - or a combination of overbuilding,
3 - modest job losses and population outflow,
4 - to drive house prices down substantially,’ a Harvard study concluded.”
We’re There! Thank you Professor.
hello
meritage homes mth ups the buyback 100m$ despite only 46m$ cash and a bb- junkrating. unbelivable.
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/meritage-home-mth-buyback.html
In reference to Naples, FL:
“Teachers, nurses, paralegals and other middle-income workers are pursuing housing — and jobs — elsewhere. That’s making it tough for employers, which are giving big raises and housing subsidies and still finding it difficult to hire or keep staff.”
-The Washington Post, August 12, 2006
This is just one of many articles I found about the lack of affordability in Florida housing.
As a believer in the free market, I know the market will correct itself- but it will be ugly.
“Certainly, South Florida remains an immensely appealing location. And some professionals think the problem may be overestimated. ‘I personally don’t know anyone who has left,’ said John Beauchamp, (at) Fort Lauderdale’s Intercoastal Realty.
Allow me to introduce myself. My name is David and I am leaving South FL ASAP, hopefully for Atlanta. The cost of living is awful and the job market blows unless you enjoy working for $15/hour. South FL is great if you are a wealthy snowbird and are only here in the winter. If you are the working middle class, there is no reason to be here, unless youlike living in poverty.
I’m sure that John Beuchamp’s social circle do not include middle-class workers. He’s only going to notice if his wealthy contacts start leaving town.
He must also not actually sell property, or conveniently forgets his customers once they move out with their winnings from the Great GF search.
I believe the correct spelling of his name is Beauchump.
His frat pals called him Blowchunks!
last 5 yrs have turned miami to madrid, boston to bombay, london to LA, sanfrancisco to sydney- almost all major urban areas in the world- paradiso. Shangri La, indeed.
‘I personally don’t know anyone who has left,’ said John Beauchamp, (at) Fort Lauderdale’s Intercoastal Realty. Beauchamp does think high real estate taxes are a growing issue, but of home prices, he said: ‘I’m a positive person, and my answer is, there’s a price to paradise.’”
__________________________________________________________
Keep your chin up Realty Guy.
He is gonna need to. Let’s see how he feels about living in “Paradise” when he hasn’t sold a house in six months. That will wipe that smug little grin off his face.
After he loses his Realtor(tm) job and has to find something else to do like the rest of us “common folk” here in Florida, what in the he11 is this jackas$ gonna do to make the mortgage payments and have a place to call his own ??
I take it he’s a Realtor(tm) because it was and “easy way to make a buck”. I hope this guy strangles on his mortgage(s)
‘I personally don’t know anyone who has left,’ said John Beauchamp.
- My wife and I read this in the Miami Herald yesterday and both laughed. Either this guy is either a liar or never leaves his office. I’ll venture to say he is a liar. I live in Broward county right now and almost anywhere I go complete strangers will start conversations about how they are either leaving or planning to leave the state. If this guy is a successful realtor, hasn’t he had some sales? I bet some of them left the state. Liar, Liar.
Florida is paradise only if you absolutely can’t stand cold winters. To everyone else it’s an expensive, overcrowded state with VERY long summers. But you gotta admire the PR machine that has painted such an attractive picture of the state for so many decades.
Florida;…..???? The biggest Cock Roaches I have ever seen in my life….They dwarf the ones in Porto Rico…
Those aren’t cockroaches, they are our local politicians…but I can understand the confussion. The resemblance is uncanny.
“Florida;…..???? The biggest Cock Roaches I have ever seen in my life…”
That’s probably why we call them Palmetto Bugs (sorry, “Palmetto”) — it makes a distinction and when they fly into you in the evening, you don’t think of a roach so much as a big ugly bug.
Spot on, Bill. Seemed to me that only a rabid dislike of winter could justify living in that place. And you’d have to REALLY, REALLY hate cold weather to put up with all the other downsides of S. Florida, in my opinion.
When I was young and foolish, I took a job in Miami. (Turned down a better-paying job in Los Angeles at the same time.) At the time, never having been to South Florida, I expected (stupidly) that it would look somewhat like the Florida Big Bend area, though more tropical. Well, tropical it was, with miserable humidity 10 months of the year. But I had no idea how crowded it was — and that was years ago.
Before arriving, I had visions of huge, shady ficus trees, tropical-type houses with shady porches, and bougainvillea dancing in my mind. Imagine my surprise when we arrived in Miami proper, and our first exit off the interstate was somewhere around Liberty City. Oh my. This is NOT what the brochures showed. And in the next few days of apartment hunting, once we figured out we couldn’t afford to rent a whole house, we found that even a concrete-block apartment anywhere near the beach was impossible on our new salaries.
We ended up renting a concrete-block, burglar-barred condo west of Little Havana in a traffic-congested, bland suburban hellhole, where it just so happened that almost all my co-workers lived as well. OK, maybe hellhole is an exaggeration, since crime was only moderate, and it wasn’t expensive and only modestly ugly. But certainly nothing like the tourist-board images we misled ourselves into believing.
A few years later, after longing to be back in a place with seasons and low crime and hopefully less traffic, we left Florida for good. I pulled on the shoulder of the Florida Turnpike as we left Dade County, turned backwards, and gave them a big heaving middle finger. Oh boy I hated that place! Only been back once, and that was to change flights. But memories of the concrete-block buildings and humidity are fading, so maybe I need to go back for a refresher weekend. :-O
Don’t worry, in subsequent years I have become much more well-travelled, wiser (or I think so, anyway), and definitely check places out better before I move. I sure feel pity for anyone who’s buying there now and will be stuck with their investment for years and years, though. Bad enough to have to live in that place at all, but to have to pay through the nose like people are doing now? No way!
NoVa Sideliner: Dittos, soul brother.
I voluntarlily took a job assignment here (Miami) because my wife didn’t want to live in the mid-west for a couple years (one of the “I” states). We can’t wait to leave the state of Florida in our rearview mirror. We need to return to someplace civilized as soon as possible.
Add to that: flat, muggy, bad drivers (I have witnessed and dodged many drunk drivers at night), high rate of pedestrian death, strip clubs everywhere (good or bad? you decide), high crime, corrupt government, no coherent zoning, hurricane magnet, etc. I just don’t get the label “paradise”. I am VERY well travelled: 50+ countries and all 50 states. Florida does not rank high in my book.
Add to this mix that it is probably the epi-centre of mortgage fraud and overblown housing prices in the US. We will ALL pay the price for “paradise”.
Flame away, Palmetto!
Left, I love your posts about Florida, my only beef with you is that you haven’t quite done a good enough job of getting the word out to all the developers, Californicators, specuvestors, FBs etc. Wish you’d started your mantra about 20 years ago. Yep, Florida really sucks. Really, REALLY sucks. And I am just delighted that the word is finally getting out and that people are leaving here in droves. One of the few pleasures of this housing boom is watching all the California wannabes get eaten alive, if not by mosquitoes and gators, by all that exotic financing. Like I said, people come here thinking they’ll get rich while they trash the place. But Florida always gets even. So to all those leaving this lousy state, here’s a hearty “So long, and don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya.”
Hee hee! Don’t you worry, the pleasure of leaving Florida was alllll mine!
Then again, let me state that it was only South Florida that really irked me. And lest anyone think it’s a racist thing, I enjoyed Broward County even less than Dade, but just spent lots more time in Dade. (At least Dade had Cuban food and music that was a bit of spice in the suburban hellhole.) Northern Florida was a whole different story, and I really liked that area. Not sure if I’d still like it or not now, if it’s full of development, though.
And Palmetto, rest assured that it wasn’t the likes of me driving up prices in Florida — I think $80k was about the top of our affordability at the time. Ouch! I can only imagine what it’s like to live there now for people on a similar salary to what they’ve always had for years.
Hey, NoVa, I hear ya! As I have said before, the reasons that I enjoyed living here are just about gone. I left South Florida myself six years ago and until two years ago, was very much enjoying the outlying areas of Tampa Bay. Almost overnight, the place has been pretty well trashed. Last night, I was watching the local news and was watching a report on a gang situation in East Pasco county. The police had been looking for a gang leader in the Dade City area and found his body dumped at the end of a dead end street in a nice, modest little neighborhood of older Florida concrete block and heart pine homes. I nearly messed myself when I realized his body had been dumped right in front of a house I had looked at when it was a VA foreclosure. I almost put an offer on it four years ago. I could have been the one walking out of my front door to discover the body one morning. So that kind of says it all. I’m still hanging in, not ready to give up just yet, but seriously considering it.
I’ve asked this before, do you guys think that eventually st joe’s will be a timber stock?
I sure hope so. As I posted elsewhere, I will be amazed if JOE does not follow WCI.
Lots of expired listings came off HousingTracker this week. Orlando went from 24,500 available units down to 17,300. Either that or they sold a butt-load of houses last week! It’ll be interesting to see what next week’s numbers are.
Same thing in Tampa - 3K houses came off - looks like there were many pie in the sky askings that came off because all the median asking prices fell the most I’ve seen.
here are the numbers
08/14/2006 12,729 $194,900 $260,900 $374,900
08/07/2006 15,841 $199,900 $267,900 $382,900
“‘We have had a work-force reduction, but I can’t give you exact numbers,’ Corr said. ‘There are employees who have not yet heard about it.’ Teary-eyed workers carrying office boxes outside the company’s Tallahassee office on Esplanade Way about 1 p.m. declined to comment.”
These folks can all be comforted by the fact that, even if they can’t make their mortgage payments now, the value of their homes will always go up. I wonder how many of these ‘insiders’ also drank the Kool-Aid and have ‘investment’ property that they will need to unload? And thus, the cascade effect begins…
I noticed the expirations on Tampa and Orlando and big drops in median in Jacksonville.
How about Miami, went up another 700 units to 38,000 and counting, does this mean that there was drops in Miami but so much new stuff added that it was a wash?
stop, you’re killing me
I am a native floridian and loved the state back in the day. The 50’s, 60’s and early 70’s were wonderful. Then Disney showed up and spoiled it.
For years all of the natives have been asking each other, “do you remember when”? We thought we had lost our paradise. Who knew the way to get it back is to price them out? We natives are loving every minute of it.
See ya and wouldn’t wanna be ya.
Right on, Jack. And when it is all over, let’s have a bulldozer derby challenge and flatten all those developments. Heck, we could break it up into regions of the state and see which one does better. Make some huge lakes in the middle of the former developments and fill ‘em with some meanass gators. Yeehaaaa! Now there’s some security for ya!
“Right on, Jack. And when it is all over, let’s have a bulldozer derby challenge and flatten all those developments.”
Probably won’t be necessary, Palmetto. Some of the new houses I’ve looked at are destined to come down without any help from construction equipment- a good tropical storm will do it. When you look at the way an older, existing (read, ’sturdier’) FL home was built and then you look at modern construction and design, you can’t help but wonder, ‘will those things still be standing in 20 years?’. I’ll bet many of them won’t be.
I grew up in a house on lake and went thru Donna. One broken window was it.
Today, forget about it. These cheeseboxes are a step above being in the open. Frankly it would be safer in the bush than in the metro areas because of all the debris. The Seminoles made it fine albeit wet.
Yup. Cinderblock construction, hard coat stucco, low-pitched roofs with windows situated for a good cross-breeze. You could heat it with a candle and cool it with an ice cube. The only way my dream house could be better is if it were in the middle of 80 acres of palmetto and live oaks with a lake nearby. To me the most impressive thing about Florida is the everyday, natural beauty and it astounds me that so many don’t appreciate (or even see) that.You’ve got to build for the locale and Floridians have been building homes for long enough to know what works- and what doesn’t. I look at the new subdivisions with zero lot-lines and it just makes me sick. I could never live that close to anyone and there is sure as hell nobody that wants to live that close to me.
The middle finger thing is hilarious…I think I give it once daily in traffic. (jk)
It NEVER gets old.
“South Florida,’’ he said, ‘’is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past” according to a realtor who predicted that a land shortage will support higher prices indefinitely.”
- New York Times, Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms, 3/25/05
‘I’m a positive person, and my answer is, there’s a price to paradise.’”
Just hang in there, You will pay the price,
Friends of mine moved out of our rental development in 2004 against my advice.They “had” to own a place before being priced out, was “tired” of throwing rent away, you get the picture.
They movesinto a smaller ( about 1300 sq ft vs. 1600 sq ft) attached villa vs. the townhouse they had- no garage, no gated community, no pool, no clubhouse, much smaller rooms.
Fast forward to August 2006. They paying $300 more a month to own vs rent, not accounting for the $$$ spent renovating several rooms, upkeep,taxes. insurance, etc.. They would like to move back to our development but can’t because there are 5 other units for sale on her block alone. Others are renting at around $300 to $400 less than what her mortgage is. Now , they “cannot afford to sell now because they would lose too much $$$”.
So now they are stuck in this place that is much less desirable because of the bubble hype. Very nice people. What we are seeing is almost a mirror image of 2003-2004. The pain is not upon us yet. This is at least one example where a FB is not even going to try and sell because the market is too soft. So when you see the gigantic run up in inventory that does not really tell the whole story. There has to be many, many more FB’s that haven’t listed their property.
…and lets not forget the “Subidize Our Geezers” tax system. Yet another way to create a whole underclass of FBs.
Comments from article on Palm Beach Post:
http://florida-paradiselost.blogspot.com/
St Joe is getting what they deserve. I’ve lived in FL since 1959 and the area around Mexico Beach/Port St Joe were always laid back and you could go there and experience “old Florida”. St Joe came in and started pricing things so high that there was no way in hell a local could afford to live in one of their planned communities.
On a different note, I drove through two subdivisions this weekend being constructed (were) by a builder out of Pensacola. It looks like he called his contractors up and told them not to show up for work. There are literally vines growing on some of the ac compressors and the yards are nothing but weeds and construction debris.
I counted 50 vacant homes in these two subdivisions, this guy has to have at least 20 more subdivisions on the ground and God only knows how many lots.
I live on 20 acres that “was” somewhat remote. Now a developer from GA has come in and purchased 2,700 acres across the street from me for a planned development. My only hope is that this slow down will come to a screeching halt and his development plans will be dropped for some time.
Oh, and in regard to my signature, I do primarily tax/estate work. I got out of the slimey mortgage market about 5 years ago. Business is great.
FLreappraiser