August 14, 2006

Price Reductions ‘Becoming More Normal’ In Washington

The Olympian has this update from Washington. “As the South Sound real estate market cools from overheated to warm, sellers are increasingly offering price reductions in order to speed up sales. Real estate agents say the recent appearance of homes marked as ‘Price Reduced’ indicates that this summer’s housing market is cooler compared with a year ago.”

“Inventory levels and interest rates are higher, and newly constructed homes continue to come onto the market, contributing to longer selling times. In July, there were 1,633 active listings, compared with 1,031 for the same period last year, according to the Olympic MLS.”

“Some agents, though, speculate that because builders don’t always list all of their new homes, inventory levels could be much higher, in the range of 2,200 to 2,500 homes.”

“Given the extra time needed to sell a home, real estate agents and their clients have been more aggressive in this market, according to Lacey-based broker Jeff Crandell. ‘I am noticing price reductions coming across my desk, and I think we’re seeing more homes marketed that way than in the past,’ he said.”

“Inventory levels are substantially higher and the market is not as feverish as it has been, Crandell said. ‘Listings are coming in at a far greater rate than we’ve seen in the past few years, and home sellers and agents have more work cut out for them,’ he said.”

“At Van Dorm Realty of Olympia, marketing expenses are rising as real estate agents spend more on advertising and fliers to help their clients sell their homes, said General Manager Jeff Pust. Pust said he also has seen price reductions he hadn’t seen for at least a few years.”

“He said the Thurston County housing market peaked last summer. The ‘frenzy’ has come out of the market, Pust said. ‘Accepting offers that are less than full price is becoming more normal,’ he said. ‘When you start seeing prices reduced, (home price) appreciation is leveling off.’”

“Educating sellers about the change in the market has become a new priority for real estate agents, said agent Jackie Tosland. ‘Homes aren’t selling as quickly, and sellers don’t realize it isn’t as hot,’ she said. ‘They remember last year.’”

“Tosland client Jennifer Huber of Lacey cut the price of her 1,635-square-foot home by $10,000 after she feared it wouldn’t sell as quickly at the higher price. Huber said her home eventually would have sold at a higher price, but she wasn’t willing to wait because she and her partner are in the market for another home.”

“‘When I saw other people lowering their prices, we couldn’t wait for an offer,’ Huber said.”




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67 Comments »

Comment by Northern VA
Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 07:12:21

‘Never say never

But many apologists for the housing industry remain insistent that because house prices have never fallen on a national level, they never will.

Actually, they already have. Since the fourth quarter, median home prices have fallen about 1 percent, according to data Goldman Sachs mined from the National Association of Realtors.

To be sure, over the last 12 months, home prices remain in strongly positive territory – up 10.4 percent. But the more recent data is negative.

The numbers are even worse for condos. The median price of a condo nationwide has been falling at a 9 percent annual rate since the fourth quarter of 2005, according to Goldman Sachs.’

When I recently said “There is a first time for everything” with respect to a national US home price decline, I did not it had already occurred. I begin to doubt the equivocation of the bloggers who lie like truth.

Realtors (TM) to prospective buyers: “Step right up and catch your falling knife.”

Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 07:29:03

I did not “realize”…

 
 
Comment by bubble-x
2006-08-14 07:41:28

If you want to see what homebuilders are thinking, without an author in the way, checkout the homebuilder sentiment chart we updated this morning. It’s really ugly, and anyone would have to be nuts not to take it seriously.

-X

BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 07:06:57

‘Accepting offers that are less than full price is becoming more normal,’ he said. ‘When you start seeing prices reduced, (home price) appreciation is leveling off.’

Realtors’ (TM) alternative reality last year: “Prices always go up.”

This year’s alternative reality: “Price reductions are normal.”

Comment by sfbayqt
2006-08-14 11:05:29

Now if all buyers, sellers and folks who will potentially be in either of these categories in the future would just pay attention to these statements, we could avoid the run-ups that happened. But, of course, we all know that’s not going to happen …. people “don’t” pay attention as they should, nor do they do due diligence as they should.

Seeing those two statements together is ( or at least, should be) an eyeopener for all.

Couldn’t help but notice, though, the “appreciation is leveling off” spin. What’s wrong with just spitting it out? Appreication is falling….plain and simple.

BayQT~

 
 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 07:12:35

Those of us who live up here in the Pacific NW have been telling people over at Tim’s Seattle Bubble Blog that the good times won’t last. People in Seattle especially think it is immune to price declines, which is categorically insane.

Thanks for this article, the slowdown is slowly creeping up the West Coast…next stop…the Emerald City…Seattle.

Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 10:04:33

Speaking of the Emerald City brings to mind a familiar movie:

“Our market is different. Ignore the man behind the curtain.”

Comment by Rainman18
2006-08-14 10:49:03

We represent, the Bubblepop League.

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2006-08-14 10:22:00

Just last night, the Fox news anchor (I forget her name) in Seattle referred to the local housing market as “red hot”. This was right after they did a story on a Colorado couple who are unable to sell their used “luxury condo”. Yep, it is “different” here.

Comment by sfbayqt
2006-08-14 11:15:32

Did the anchor say that it was a *used* luxury condo? It never ceases to amaze me that a point is made out of a place being “never lived in”, “used” or whatever they think will make a difference in the presentation. Not everyone can have (or is looking for) a fresh, new house/condo/townhouse. And quite frankly, new doesn’t mean better. Some fool themselves into thinking that they won’t be inheriting another person’s problems (by buying new), but in some cases the new purchases *buys* you major builder headaches that can be much worse than, say, replacing or repairing old plumbing in a *used* house.

Sheesh! Just blowing off steam.

BayQT~

 
Comment by seattle price drop
2006-08-14 16:12:47

They’ve been doing those “saves” on the local news ever since last winter. Whenever there was a story about RE troubles in another state, local news would, within seconds, come back with the “We’re Red Hot! It’s not happening here!”

Meanwhile, anyone with a Zip account and access to the county records could get the truth: It WAS/is happening here.

The unabashed lying by the media has been a sickening thing to behold.

This last push a month ago to get 20-somethings into the condo market was especially sickening and bordering on criminal, IMO.

It was a big shocker 2 weeks ago to have 3 articles within a week in the Seattle Times proclaiming, at long last, that we’re NOT different and the market’s heading down.

But I guess that truthfullness didn’t sit well with some, so now we’re back to the “saves”.

 
 
 
Comment by SeattleEastsider
2006-08-14 07:14:13

Seattle’s Eastside market (Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Issaquah, Sammamish, etc) still seems to be strong.

For the first time in many years, there seems to be a gradual slowdown in the $700K+ market here? We saw a newer home that’s been on the market for over almost 4 months — something that was unheard off in the past many years.

Comment by lefantome
2006-08-14 12:38:31

Summer of 2005, my wife and I took a road trip to Washington to look at property – which now qualifies me as a Washington RE value expert (sarcasm always on ….).

The trip through Vancouver, Olympia, Tacoma – ended at our friends house on Fox Island. We spent two days touring the area and looking at homes. I loved the Canterwood Golf Course in Gig Harbor, but I’m just a golf course guy. Prices (as well as taxes I’m told) say it’s all about the waterfront.

After reading Meshugy’s posts, I just had to take a look at Realtor.com & John L. Scott sites again, since it’s been awhile, to see these price changes. I don’t have any actual comparisons but I have an excellent memory of what you get for your dollar – and it looks to me like you are getting MORE for you money in THIS area now, than when we visited last year! I’m looking at a gorgeous house in Canterwood right now (MLS ID#: 26130872) which I remember being listed a long time ago (could have been after our trip though). Got to be getting a bit stale on the market. Homes of this size and quality, located on the track, were 700K – 900K. At 769K, not 15% higher than my remembrance. When it falls to 539K, I’m taking another trip.

Maybe I’m looking in the bad part of town ……

Comment by seattle price drop
2006-08-14 15:33:28

You are not imagining things, prices are coming down, even in Seattle.

Last spring there were PLENTY of sales that went below asking. In fact most were below asking when I checked the county records (like 40 out of 52 sales I checked).

Problem was, even at 200K off and 200 DOM, the places were still double what they cost 2 years ago. So everybody could keep shouting “prices still going up! Market red hot!”

And they’d take properties off the market all the time and push it back to 0 DOM’s and a new (lower) price then present as “New on Market!” A realtor explained to me that it was all perfectly legal and a way to keep properties looking “fresh”.

Now even initial asking prices are coming down.

That said, we’ve still got a ways to go up here before prices are at all in line with rents and incomes.

But it’s happening!

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2006-08-14 18:21:48

Gig Harbor (near Fox Island) is totally bubblicious. I just went through there last Friday night and I felt like I was in LA. It was loaded with the yuppies in their Escalades and Hummers and bleach blondes with fake tits and all that crap. What a turn off. A lot of these seaside communities are just loaded with these look at me types now. When I was young, this area was so much different. It was much more unspoiled, polite, and enjoyable. Now, it’s “get the F— out of me and my BMW’s way”. A real turnoff. At any rate, I pulled a flyer off of a house in the downtown historical area that is currently for sale. Price reduced to under $600k. This particular home is for sale for the 3rd time in 3 years. A few short years ago it sold for less than $300k. Flipper central I am afraid. Washington is no different. Just a little behind the curve…

Comment by Orion
2006-08-14 23:19:40

I live in Gig Harbor and the reason it feels like LA is that it’s been overrun by Californicators. This isn’t a recent occurance, been happening for many years. You’re right about the Hummers and BMWs, however people are still generally very friendly and polite here. I haven’t noticed the fake tits, mostly the town is full of old people and families, it’s a very quiet bedroom town with zero nightlife, that’s what Tacoma is for. There are few good jobs in town, most of them are professionals with their own business or doctors, otherwise it’s burger flippers and other service jobs. I’ve been tracking the inventory and it’s been going up, though not as fast as Tacoma. I see a house down the street, a little cabin (now called a bungalow) built in 1950, slightly over 1000 sq.ft. and upgraded with the usual granite countertops and jetted tub, has been reduced from $499,950 to $479,950, on market for over 100 days. It’s a bubble here too.

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Comment by blueskitten
2006-08-15 07:59:49

I grew up in Gig Harbor, and my parents still live there. Last weekend I was visiting them and they were commenting on how the RE market has softened since the beginning of the year. A friend across the street has had his place on the market a couple of months and has made a couple of price reductions. It’s a nice little place with a water view, too.

Growing up we called the kids who lived in Canterwood “canterweenies.”

 
 
 
 
Comment by eastside
2006-08-14 20:57:15

I stay on the eastside (Woodbridge, Redmond) which is a new community built around 1.5 years ago. Prices in this community have been dropping for the past 7 weeks or so. My neighbor’s house that was purchased at 440K two years ago was listed at 650K last month. It is now reduced to 599K.

 
 
Comment by Chrisinpnw
2006-08-14 07:15:36

I live in semi-rural western Washington. (98382) Our run up in prices was just over 50% in this bubble, similar I expect to other semi-rural areas of the country that were not bubble central. Our zip story follows……..

By luck we sold at the top last summer for 480K to a couple from San Deigo who got a arm 90/10. She then decided she could not handle our maritime weather/climate so they put it back on the market for 580K! Needless to say it did not sell and now they have it for rent. The property has mucho land & requires a lot of maintance. Dumb! We are now bubble sitters renting a new townhouse for $1150 per month. The builder here has “forty pads” with then 80 nice duplexes on the pads. The last completed 8 built this past spring have not sold and he will not lower the price, plus there are three resales for a total of 11 for sale.(he put in the three last pads in this summer but has not built on them)
Like most areas mentioned on this blog, builders are still at it building mucho inventory, it’s just crazy! In the expensive area of town where only the equity nomads can afford to buy there are 23 homes for sale with only one or two sold this year.
Current status: A ton of inventory, only small price reductions & sales down 40 to 50% compared to last summer, maybe more. The realtwhores are very “tight” on this information. My SWAG is the big price break comes this winter after the first of the year.

Comment by BanteringBear
2006-08-14 10:45:13

I see you are in the Sequim area. Nice place. Unfortunately, not a good place for jobs. It is way too far to commute to the Seattle area. I drove through Port Ludlow last weekend and there are a lot of for sale and reduced price signs. I think that all of both Jefferson and Clallum county are hopelessly overpriced right now. With wages in the area so low, all sellers can count on is retirees, and rich people looking for second homes. Not a good strategy and it is time for the builders to wake up. And the price of land over there is absolutely absurd. Factor in the 6 month Hood Canal bridge closure in 2009 adding 100+ miles to any commute and you start to wonder why anyone would be buying out there.

Comment by seattle price drop
2006-08-14 16:51:21

Congratulations on getting out at the top last August, Chrisinpnw.

Three, count ‘em 3, friends of mine waited till late winter/spring to sell. None of them got what they “wanted”, all went price reduced and sweated it out as the DOM’s mounted. One even took it off the market and put it back on as new, a favorite trick here.

Two more couples waiting til Fall ‘06. They still believe the realtor/news/speak and the YOY crap.

Speaking of medians, here’s a good reason not to pay attention, even to month on month:

Vashon median, …May 2006: 771,250……..July 2006: 442,500

Two months and a 250K price drop in median? Now there’s some reliable home-buying information right there.

It doesn’t matter whether the market’s going up or going down, median is an utterly unreliable guage that tells you nothing about prices.

Comment by Chrisinpnw
2006-08-14 18:53:12

Thanks, part luck & part skill. (read that helpful wife)
This whole thread is a reminder that in the great Pacific Northwest we are six + months behind the real bubble areas. Every cycle we are late on the way up and behind on the way down. My pals in Kalifornia say sales are way down. With the equidity nomads not able to leave at the prices thay want sales have stopped in my zip. As mentioned by BanteringBear, the locals can’t afford the prices but I expect they will be able to next year.

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Comment by ChrisO
2006-08-14 07:19:20

“As the South Sound real estate market cools from overheated to warm, sellers are increasingly offering price reductions in order to speed up sales. Real estate agents say the recent appearance of homes marked as ‘Price Reduced’ indicates that this summer’s housing market is cooler compared with a year ago.”

I wouldn’t characterize a housing market full of “Price Reduced” signs as being “warm.” The Olympian appears to be working the housing spin pretty hard. There must be a pony in there somewhere…

 
Comment by Meshugy
2006-08-14 07:27:45

The market is Seattle is still very strong….15% yoy appreciation and very low inventory. But it’s interetsing to see things slow down in other areas…

Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 07:28:18

Yea sure, “It’s different around here…”

Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 07:50:06

Meshugy is the resident Seattle Bubble Blog troll, take what he says with a huge grain of salt.

Comment by Meshugy
2006-08-14 08:08:09

hi Dukes…don’t take my word for it. See the July NWMLS report:

NORTHWEST MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE: (CONSOLIDATED) STATISTICAL RECAP: Month of July 2006

Contrary to trends in many parts of the U.S., home prices in Western Washington continue to rise, even in the wake of growing inventory and fewer sales.

The latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which tracks activity in 17 counties, shows prices rose 15.5 percent for July’s sales compared to the same month a year ago. That figure – the sharpest gain for any month so far this year — includes single family homes and condominiums. For single family homes only, the increase was 14 percent, while prices for condominiums that sold last month jump 20 percent from a year ago.

It’s also worth noting that despite the slowing sales and increasing inventory of Thurston County, they still have 11% YOY appreciation.

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Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 08:22:31

I am sure the MLS report you cite is an unbiased source of information.

 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 08:41:31

Meshugy, I have asked you over and over again to justify WHY you think that Seattle is different from the entire country. You can’t do that, because it isn’t. Manias end, they exhaust themselves, no amount of telling yourself that your area is different will prevent that.

In time Seattle will follow suit. Also, are you quoting Median prices? If so, the use of medians has been debunked. So, tell me - why will Seattle be different from the rest of our country?

 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 08:48:46

Meshugy,

Have you ever read any of LV_Landlord or Beaconst’s posts? They had their hour on Ben’s stage, but are heard no more. But maybe if you figure out where they are, then after Seattle’s housing market follows MA’s and LV’s down the tubes, you guys could form a support group.

 
Comment by Meshugy
2006-08-14 08:52:32

Hi Dukes,

Meshugy, I have asked you over and over again to justify WHY you think that Seattle is different from the entire country.

I’m not making any predictions…just following the market which is still very strong in Seattle. Prices are still going up and inventory is growing, but still historically very low. Only 2 months supply of homes for sale…

We may see a crash…but with job growth strong we’re more likely to see a return to normal appreciation of 3-6%. Maybe it will go flat for a few years.

 
Comment by Kim
2006-08-14 08:58:23

I live north of Seattle, and what Meshugy says is true; this area is still going strong. There are price reductions, but that is mainly because people are setting the prices so much higher than before. We are in the inventory increase stage, though. I am very bearish on the market, as you all should know, so don’t think I am a troll, it’s just that Seattle is later in its final boom stage than many other parts of the country. Even my husband, who generally believes that what I have been telling him about the market is true, is having trouble believing that things can go down with all the building that is going on here: he is an electrician and knows about the various plans for building going on. I keep telling him that a frenzy of building is exactly what happens toward the end of a real estate bubble. He has hinted a little that maybe we should go ahead and buy, but luckly I know he won’t go through with anything because when he sees the prices he balks at paying them, just like I do.

 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 09:01:19

Why do you think job growth will remain strong? What sector has had the biggest amount of job growth up here? I believe the correct answer would be real estate and real estate related industries.

Why would you think that after appreciating 100% over the past few years we will only see flat to 3-6% appreciation. Sounds to me like someone has some serious rose colored glasses on.

You say you aren’t making any predictions, but your last sentence is a PREDICTION if I am not mistaken. Once again…you talk in circles.

 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 09:08:58

Kim, the formula is simple.

Inventory increasing…check!
Price reductions…check!
Astronomical prices…check!
Rising interest rates…check!
Last of the greater fools purchasing…check!

Your husband should look at it the other way…with all the building going on up here, it SHOULD lead to price declines and it will.

 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-08-14 09:27:52

I was just in Seattle 2 weeks ago. (Seattle Proper).

I wrote a little post about it last week.

I was impressed by the number of condos going up. they were going up everywhere throughout all of first hill, capitol hill, the area between downtown and Queen Anne. I was shocked. Most aren’t highrises (except near the Space Needle”) but they are so numerous.

And I’m starting to hear now in Seattle what I heard 2 years ago in San Diego when I lived there… People now are saying “wow, I couldn’t afford my own house if I had to buy it now!”. That’s a telling sign.

I think you can distill ALL of the “job growth” and “people moving here” arguments down to one thing: can you afford your home at today’s prices. If you can’t, then either you are poor, or other people can’t afford your home either.

As Cali tanks, the Cali equity refugees won’t have money to bring to Seattle. Seattle will get hit that way. It will probably be about a year from now (BIG GUESS). But I agree, Seattle is strong FOR NOW.

but look how fast the tide turned in San Diego… and S Florida and countless other places

clouseau

 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 10:07:59

“… it’s just that Seattle is later in its final boom stage than many other parts of the country.”

That sounds right. I have no doubt that many California equity refugees will help support the prices for a while in less expensive markets, even while prices tank at ground zero (SF, LA & SD).

 
Comment by Polo Bear
2006-08-14 11:02:12

Seattle is one of the Cali escapes…as is Tx and NC. The boom may have rolled there before petering out. With the bubble bucks I got for my house last fall, I could easily afford to buy in the Pacific NW…if my husband didn’t hate it so much!!! For Cali natives…it makes us SAD and we have to sit in front of lights an hour a day so we don’t slit our wrists!!!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-08-14 12:14:13

Rising prices don’t prove strength in a market unless wages and rents support those prices. What has happened to those variables since the prices started up? Is it cheaper to rent than to buy?

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2006-08-14 12:59:47

“With the bubble bucks I got for my house last fall, I could easily afford to buy in the Pacific NW…if my husband didn’t hate it so much!!! For Cali natives…it makes us SAD and we have to sit in front of lights an hour a day so we don’t slit our wrists!!!”

This is precisely why the Northwest will never be the number one destination for retirees, equity locusts, etc.. For every person who moves up here and enjoys the 6+ months of grey, overcast skies, rain, and darkness, there are dozens more who cannot handle it after growing up in areas with far more sunshine and warm weather. There is a correlation between lack of sunlight and depression. I, personally, love the weather since I grow plants. But last winter, I heard complaining from even the most hardened natives after 30 straight days of significant rainfall and no sun. It is not for everyone, and the sunnier, southern areas of the US will always win out when it comes to retirement and the like.

 
Comment by seattle price drop
2006-08-14 16:32:18

Count me as one of those “hardened” people who “loved’ the overcast and drizzle. Til last winter when I almost lost it.

I’m praying we never get a year like that again.

 
Comment by Lake Hills Renter
2006-08-14 20:13:53

My favorite weather is 60 degrees and cloudy. Way out of place in Texas, right at home in Seattle. I suffer through the summers here. =P

 
Comment by Orion
2006-08-14 23:30:07

Ben, it’s way cheaper to rent than buy right now in the South Sound. We Northwesterners count on the months of clouds and drizzle (and sometimes 3 solid weeks of pouring down rain if we’re lucky) to keep the sun state refugees to a manageable level. Our major crop is moss, followed by mold. Don’t move here if you can’t handle continuously wet and gray winters where it gets dark at 4:30 pm. What’s even worse is that people around here don’t drive well in the rain, and if it snows even a quarter inch, forget about driving anywhere, it’s chaos.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Crashwatcher
2006-08-14 21:15:37

I can’t take it anymore. SEATTLE IS A BUBBLE & FULL OF FRAUD!!Back in February I was talking to a successful business owner in down town Seattle who wanted to buy a new upper middle class home. We got to talking about housing prices and there was no way as a business man that he could justify the prices and that they just seemed so out of line with what people actually make. I had told him that I thought we were in a serious bubble (thanks to anotherf*ckdborrower) and that I thought there was a ton of “funny money” in Seattle. I advised him to wait out the storm, hold off the wife and make a killing at a bank auction in a couple of years (he immigrated to the US with nothing). He mentioned how much they wanted a larger home and I asked him “How long it took him save a few hundred grand? – real money.” I saw my friend a week later who mentioned that the Feds had been by looking for the same broker/agent for something to do with fraud, but apparently they were no where to be found and hasn’t been seen since. My friend has thanked me numerous times for the advise that I passed on and will be a lifelong friend as my lunches are now free.

-Crashwatcher

 
 
Comment by DinOR
2006-08-14 07:32:14

Ben,

Thanks for posting this article. I know “it’s different here” but the PNW is postively ripe for it’s upencomeance. Here in Oregon we have the highest per capita ratio of self employed people. Aside from making stained glass windows, tie dyed t-shirts (and hydrophonics) we have little in the way of meaningful employment. That is besides playing musical chairs with houses. This sobering “shake out” will provide a much needed “breath of fresh air”.

Comment by accroyer
2006-08-14 09:37:26

That is what I have been telling people all along here in Oregon. Everyone thinks the housing market is great here and prices will go up because of all the young talent working for Intel and Pixel.

 
 
Comment by richie rich
2006-08-14 07:38:12

I’ve been watching Santa Fe RE and have seen in the past few months — on homes that aren’t selling — that they relist at HIGHER prices! It must take longer for ‘Fanta Se’ sellers to get newspapers and television reports of the bubble bursting??

Comment by implosion
2006-08-14 09:51:15

Santa Fe is a bizaare market. I would urge anyone considering a house there to thoroughly research the market including crime stats, income stats, etc.

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2006-08-14 07:47:09

“Some agents, though, speculate that because builders don’t always list all of their new homes, inventory levels could be much higher, in the range of 2,200 to 2,500 homes.”

- The plot thickens………

 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 07:47:48

Try and cope with Meshugy, he is the troll who haunts the Seattle Blog, basically he is nervous and plays it off as being a Seattle cheerleader. Pathetic.

Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 07:51:53

Sorry, this was meant in response to above posting…

 
Comment by lollapalooza
2006-08-14 09:32:15

Anyone as optimistic about the housing market as Meshugy would be out buying. The man is, as you said, just a nervous cheerleader.

 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-08-14 09:34:26

I disagree.

Meshugy showed DATA (even if we bicker about the source or meaning, s/he brought data) and personal observation, which is consistent across various posters, including me. (and I am not a troll)

The data currently supports the notion that Seattle housing market is doing well at this point.

Meshuggy has IMO incorrect conclusions about what the CURRENTLY strong Seattle Data means, but I welcome thoughtful debate, which Meshuggy has brought to the table.

I don’t need a rah-rah only-bubble site. I prefer real observations from all over. Even if they don’t jive with what I feel is correct.

As you and I know we all watched around us as the bubble markets went out of control, people saying that RE only goes up, then watching it only going up for far longer than reasonable.

we then watched as inventory suddenly went up, and sales went down.

And now we’re watching as prices start to drop.

Seattle is only in phase one: prices and sales going up.

We feel this current trend of higher sales and prices will reverse. We feel Seattle’s not “different”. Meshuggy feels otherwise. Time will tell.

clouseau

Comment by implosion
2006-08-14 09:57:26

I agree. Everyone can look at all the data and draw their own conclusions - preferably with informed discussion.

 
Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 10:04:50

I disagree with your disagreement. What Meshugy does is to go through information to find ANYTHING positive that he possibly can. He fails, as you note, to make correct assumptions.

 
Comment by Rainman18
2006-08-14 10:58:29

I have to side with you clouseau. Meshuggy brought data and an opinion. I may not agree with the conclusion but I don’t see a troll.

Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 12:19:59

That is because you don’t read the Seattle Bubble blog…

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Comment by easthawaii
2006-08-14 14:34:47

True Dukes, about the blog. I spent 5 weeks this summer in Seattle looking at multi-family re. Decided not to move there any time soon, disappointed by Seattle “nice” passive aggressive and stuck up attitudes. Lived only in the sunbelt and don’t kow if I could take the climate either. Seattle re is on a precipice and it will not be different there imo.

 
 
 
Comment by Mort
2006-08-14 10:58:54

The data does seem to indicate a late bloom in the PNW. Possibly the beneficiary, if one chooses to look at it that way, of a northward migration of equity nomads. However, if they are still building like crazy, eventually the market will become saturated. Also, if the local job market doesn’t support higher prices a new equilibrium will eventually be reached. :D

Comment by lefantome
2006-08-14 12:46:52

“ …..in the PNW…… eventually the market will become saturated ….”

I get it…..

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Comment by richard
2006-08-14 12:38:04

Seattle is only in phase one: prices and sales going up.

Sales are going up? They’re down ~13% YOY.

 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-08-14 12:51:15

I would prefer the data to come from an objective source, not an MLS report.

And I am curious about the answers to the questions Mr. Jones raised above:

1) How do Seattle area home prices compare to average wages?

2) How do Seattle area home prices compare to the rent on comparable properties?

These are the relevant questions for assessing the stability of the market, not how fast prices have recently increased.

Comment by AmazedRenter
2006-08-14 14:07:17

I can answer that: A while ago, I used Melissadata.com to get average incomes by zip. Out of a randomly selected sample of Seattle Eastzide zipcodes (Bellevue, Sammamish and Redmond), one could quickly, and decisively, conclude that incomes have declined from 2000 through 2003, with a slight uptick in 2004.

Rents have been flat here, although we’re currently facing “desperate flipper needs ridiculous rent”-type challenges.

And yes, prices are up in Seattle 15% YoY, but sales are down 10% YoY, and inventory is up 30% - 50% YoY (depends on how you define “Seattle”). Seattle right now reminds me most of Sacramento last year: slowly but surely the party is ending, and the bubble is bursting.

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Comment by Kim
2006-08-14 20:33:23

We live about an hour north of Seattle and even here in Marysville we save about $300 a month by renting compared to if we bought the same house at these prices.

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Comment by accroyer
2006-08-14 10:30:57

How would Seattle be the only market in the U.S. that wont see a bubble (I guess the bubble fairy granted them immunity). What a stupid comment .

Comment by dukes
2006-08-14 10:38:00

Stupid indeed! Seattle is in the Very LATE stages of its date with destiny. I outlined the reasons above. There are still those that deny what is staring them in the face…but so be it, in the end the truth will be resoundingly clear to all.

Comment by seattle price drop
2006-08-14 17:12:02

Re Meshugy’s posts:

People who ignore the amount of price reduceds (30% is usual to OVER 50% in some zips this summer in Seattle) are blatantly choosing to ignore important info about the market.

When they ignore rising inventory and vastly increased DOM’s, they are again choosing to ignore important info.

The Seattle market used to be hot, it is not anymore. Unless they’ve redefined the word hot.

Frankly I’d rather throw my money at a market that’s got more than a rising YOY median going for it.

One more, very important thing, about the Seattle market: It ranks 5th or 6th in the nation for using risky Neg Am loans. Ignore that bit of info at your peril.

Right now, appreciation in Seattle has been so tremendous that the risky loans thing has not caught up with us en masse. Once people can’t get more than they paid for last year for the house (already happening but not in huge numbers yet), what do you think will happen here?

 
 
 
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