‘No Longer The Go-Go Market’ In Florida
The Herald Tribune reports from Florida. “Some home builders in this region “have not had any sales this year” and are working off unfinished backlogs to survive, said John King, president of the Homebuilders Association of Sarasota County. King said he is starting to see signs that ‘things are picking up’ and that sales incentives are working.”
“Lakewood Ranch-based Neal Communities has made sales in recent weeks and its namesake credits ‘new products with substantially reduced prices.’ Pat Neal, who owns enough land in the region to accommodate about 9,000 new houses, might be in a better position than some builders: He has land with a lower cost-basis that he can pass along to buyers without hurting his profits significantly.”
“The home construction industry had a ‘long run of overconfidence in which it could build anything and sell it,’ said Derrick Barwick, of Palmetto-based builder de Morgan Communities. Those days ‘are gone. It’s no longer the go-go market.’”
“Incentives to make sales abound, even among Southwest Florida’s big players. Lennar Homes is launching a four-day-long ‘26 Hour Sale’ this weekend featuring reduced prices in 13 neighborhoods in the region. The effort includes the lowest prices offered by the big Miami-based home builder so far this year, said Rob Allegra, president of the Sarasota/Manatee division.”
“Allegra said the current downturn is a six- to 12-month proposition. If he or his bosses thought it was more severe, Lennar would be ‘leaning the machine and laying off people, which we’re not.’”
The Daytona Beach News Journal. “Which causes Floridians more worry, rising gasoline prices or falling real estate prices? The man who measures the state’s consumer confidence every month says most Floridians aren’t that worried about gasoline costs. Uncertainty about real estate values is a bigger concern.”
“Chris McCarty, survey director at the University of Florida, predicted unease about real estate values will push down confidence levels for the next several months. We expect a fairly pronounced effect from the decline in the real estate market,’ McCarty said. As prices soften, there will be a ‘leveling or decline’ in home equity, a loss of construction jobs and slower sales of appliances and building products, he said.”
“Area homes marketed by Realtors sold in June for a median price of $221,300. While that was $12,600 higher than the median price of a year ago, it was $10,200 below May’s price level. ‘There’s clearly a lot more inventory on the market now, but sellers haven’t come to grips with that yet,’ McCarty said. He expects prices to fall farther in higher-priced coastal markets like Naples, Fort Lauderdale and Sarasota, but he was uncertain whether Daytona Beach will follow suit.”
“One local seller who recently bit the bullet and lowered his asking price is Bill Fletcher, an Ormond Beach resident who had been trying to sell a two-bedroom starter home for $147,900. After four months of waiting for a buyer, he’s lowered his price to $143,900.”
“‘My theory is that the market is very saturated right now, and interest rates are going up,’ Fletcher said. Fletcher bought the 50-year-old fixer-upper in March for $96,000, painted inside and out and replaced its roof and heating and air-conditioning system. Fletcher owns two other rental homes, but this is his first attempt to do a quick resale.”
“Mark Soskin, an economist at the University of Central Florida’s Daytona Beach campus, can understand why sellers are nervous about empty properties. Speculators trying to flip expensive new condominiums while juggling interest-only mortgages are perhaps at greatest risk, he said. ‘The foreclosures that are likely will dump a lot more of that product on the market,’ he said.”
The Tampa Tribune. “Trump Tower Tampa, the 52-story riverfront project trumpeted as downtown’s crowning luxury condominium building, is still at ground level and without construction financing, its project manager acknowledged Friday.”
“Spokesman David Hooks would not say where the financing stands and would not answer general questions. For days, construction appeared to have halted at the Ashley Drive site. Friday afternoon, three workers were on the property.”
“Since plans were announced January 2005 for a 600-foot, $220 million tower, which would be Tampa’s tallest, the project completion date has been moved several times, and developers parted ways with at least two contractors. Frank Dagostino, SimDag’s CEO, said 80 percent of the 192 units were spoken for. The majority of those buyers had contracts, he said, and had put down 20 percent nonrefundable deposits.”
“At least one buyer, Stephen Page, of Clearwater, said he’s unconcerned. ‘I’m looking forward to this going vertical,’ Page said, noting he paid just under $1 million for the two-bedroom condo he wants on the 34th floor. ‘Knowing the Trump people, I have a lot of confidence they’ll get it done.’”
‘Allegra said the current downturn is a six- to 12-month proposition. If he or his bosses thought it was more severe, Lennar would be ‘leaning the machine and laying off people, which we’re not.’
If Lennar deviates from their business plan, Wall Street will stop buying their bonds, so the over-confidence continues, at least publicly. Also from the Herald Tribune:
‘The growth that contributed to overcrowded classrooms across Southwest Florida in recent years is tapering off, with schools in some older neighborhoods even seeing drops in enrollment. Charlotte County says preliminary numbers indicate it has actually lost student population.’
‘The declining numbers may be a reflection of the real estate market. New construction and home sales are also falling throughout the region. On top of that, housing prices remain high, a factor that may be forcing low- to moderate-income families with children to leave and discouraging others from moving here.’
Morgan Stanley has identified Lennar (Allegra’s company) as a leveraged buyout target. They (Lennar) are probably keeping up appearances to remain attractive as long as possible, hoping for a white knight with a good price. If they stop building, the stock will tank and someone will snap them up for peanuts. They can’t be silly enough to think that this will all be over with in six to twelve months.
I have heard that LBO stuff. Does it really make sense to buy these landbanks going into a trough? And we’re talking $billions in land. Maybe trying to put a floor under the stock price?
That’s why I’m not short any of them anymore. I shorted them on and off from 2003 through the early part of this year. But after Lyons, I got religion.
If someone can take them private at the right price, they stand to make good money taking them public again after the bottom is well in place. There aren’t going to be many customers for the land in the bank right now, only a few really big players with lots of dollars to park for a while. Think oil dollars that need to be protected from US currency inflation.
“Allegra said the current downturn is a six- to 12-month proposition. If he or his bosses thought it was more severe, Lennar would be ‘leaning the machine and laying off people, which we’re not.’”
- Thank you Mr. Allegra. Now that I know that you and your bosses have determined the length of this downturn I can plan my future.
- I was going to ‘Batten Down the Hatches’ … not now..
- You Mr. Allegra are a Moron.
Uhhh…how long does it take one of the HBs to lay someone off? A few days maybe?
Sounds like someone is expecting a Uncle Ben bailout via lower interest rates to get the ball rolling again. Too bad Uncle Ben can’t magically wave a wand and make our wages 50% higher so we can once again start to afford a home.
‘Knowing the Trump people, I have a lot of confidence they’ll get it done.’
I would say: “Knowing the Trump people, they don’t like to lose money.”
This project is toast.
be sure to read that wapo article on the mortgage insurance assn group that’s now expressing alarm and calling for greater restriction on these arms — only about 2-3 years too late, as far as i’m concerned.
man, the social disruption that’s gonna be the fallout from this is gonna be massive — divorce, dislocation and disruption of families’ lives. what happens to a young family that’s been foreclosed on and has no hope of getting their finances in order and nowhere to go. i totally expect to see homeless families camped out under bridges like you saw during the late 70/early 80s.
I have some acquaintances in Las Vegas. He was selling insurance. They bough a POS KB home in NLV in late 2004 then another home to flip in early 2005. What idiots. The first thing to go when you have no money is the life insurance - it is definitely a disposable income product. ANhow, now they have given back both homes and both cars. Driving another couples’ used car. No income, no credit, no brains. Soon to be a typical story…at least they were able to get a tax deduction for the Russ Whitney & Robert Kiyosaki and Carlton Sheets tapes.
I’d audit that. Have you ever read Kiyosaki? He’s pretty clear about positive cashflow on properties. And he doesn’t stutter when he says it. They obviously never listened to the tapes.
“One local seller who recently bit the bullet and lowered his asking price is Bill Fletcher, an Ormond Beach resident who had been trying to sell a two-bedroom starter home for $147,900. After four months of waiting for a buyer, he’s lowered his price to $143,900.”
“‘My theory is that the market is very saturated right now, and interest rates are going up,’ Fletcher said. Fletcher bought the 50-year-old fixer-upper in March for $96,000, painted inside and out and replaced its roof and heating and air-conditioning system. Fletcher owns two other rental homes, but this is his first attempt to do a quick resale.”
Uhhh… better think about dropping your price another 40K on that turkey Bubba, the flipping game is OVER.
“One local seller who recently BIT THE BULLET…”
Like this guy is some sort of hero. The FB reduced his list price $4,000 or a measly 2.7%. Its a statistical error. Below the materiality threshhold. This is not news worthy unless you beat the drum in the article that Mr. Fletcher is @#@#@&! .
So he thinks that paint, new roof, and HVAC for a 2bed house are worth $48,000?? The flipper prolly put in $10-15k on repairs and thinks he should walk away with $28-38k of profit for his efforts? Those days have come to an end. If he was smart, he’d lower the price to $110k and hope to come out even.
I think Mr. Fletcher is in the rental business, whether he likes it or not with that house, having already sunk the repair costs.
He’d have to get pretty lucky to to find someone who’ll pay $50,000 for a new roof and a paint job.
And they keep citing interest rates. What a bogeyman. Interest rates are headed lower, not higher, at least over the next 12 months. But fewer and fewer are going to qualify to borrow money of any type for any purpose.
As with many things in life for most people, his first attempt to flip for a profit will likely end in failure.
From the update:
‘Trump Tower Tampa, the 52-story riverfront project trumpeted as downtown’s crowning luxury condominium building, is still at ground level and without construction financing, its project manager acknowledged Friday.”
‘Spokesman David Hooks would not say where the financing stands and would not answer general questions. For days, construction appeared to have halted at the Ashley Drive site. Friday afternoon, three workers were on the property.’
‘Since plans were announced January 2005 for a 600-foot, $220 million tower, which would be Tampa’s tallest, the project completion date has been moved several times, and developers parted ways with at least two contractors. Frank Dagostino, SimDag’s CEO, said 80 percent of the 192 units were spoken for. The majority of those buyers had contracts, he said, and had put down 20 percent nonrefundable deposits.’
‘At least one buyer, Stephen Page, of Clearwater, said he’s unconcerned. ‘I’m looking forward to this going vertical,’ Page said, noting he paid just under $1 million for the two-bedroom condo he wants on the 34th floor. ‘Knowing the Trump people, I have a lot of confidence they’ll get it done.’
There is no real money in Tampa. The “well to do” consists of families that were relocated from elsewhere because their companies wanted to save money by operating from Tampa. The native upper class is teachers, secretaries, realtors making $40-50.000.00 year. Now show me the money that justifies these plans fit for saudi arabia
Tampa is struggling to define itself right now. For years it was more like a sleepy old Florida town or small city with a port, some industry and McDill AFB. It really doesn’t have much in the way of viable tourist beach area. I wouldn’t go swimming at any beach on Tampa Bay unless I wanted about 12 kinds of cancer or to play host to flesh eating bacteria. The local public television Friday night Florida Week show, which discusses issues of local political interest, discussed Tampa’s upcoming bid for the Republican Convention and whether or not it can present itself as a city with something to offer the delegates. It majorly lacks decent public transportation. Heck, it can’t even decide where to locate its art museum. The old part of Tampa (South Tampa/Bayshore) is underwater (literally) any time there’s so much as a cloudburst. Like Trump Tower, the sewer projects keep getting pushed back and I suspect the city does not wish to make the investment in an expensive project that might be a losing proposition in the end. I read some obscure report somewhere that there are those in city/county planning policy circles who feel, based on some scientific analysis, that parts of the city are sinking and it may be necessary to re-think the location of the center of Tampa. Publicly these reports are considered “fringe”, but it is hard to deny the television news images of stalled and submerged cars and flooded homes and businesses after heavy thunderstorms. One fellow whose towing business was completely flooded out a few nights ago said he’d never had the flooding affect his business before.
Having said that, I’ve lived in Miami and Orlando and Tampa is a far better place to live. Tampa does have a certain charm and some pretty decent people. If the pols would just let it alone, it would be fine. It does have a bit of an economy and its lower cost of living used to be the main attraction, not to mention the formerly nice outlying rural areas. As far as I am concerned, Trump Tower would be a blight on the area and the Republican convention would probably take more from the local economy than it would put in, especially in terms of inconvenience to the population and added security/police state requirements, not to mention the potential for riots and demonstrations.
That place is dead in the water: there are no workers there, the “Apprentice” winner purportedly in charge has disappeared from the scene, and all we have left is irritation that one of the Ashley Drive lanes remains closed off.
When the Trump Tower was announced, some people proclaimed that Tampa had “arrived.” The fact is that this city is never going to arrive in that context–the rich and famous always will live somewhere else, which is fine by me. Yet we keep being expected to pay the housing prices that the rich and famous do, which is not fine.
On the subject of social disruptions, the elementary school where my wife works has “low numbers” this year, which led to the closing of one kindergarten and one first grade classroom.
snake, you are exactly right about Tampa. I just can’t believe how the local pols and Chamber of Commerce folks get all servile, quivery and moist with delight anytime some big swinging dick from outside the area wants to do business here. They just seem so desperate for validation. I guess they think that since Orlando has the Mouse and Miami has South Beach and all that Art Deco/international flavor, what do we have to define us? A polluted bay and McDill/Central Command? There’s a lot more than that, but I ain’t saying. I’ll be very happy if the market tanks and Donald and his Apprentices fire themselves and leave us to enjoy our nice “unsophisticated” little city and surrounding areas.
Thinking of coming to Tampa? Don’t. It’s sinking and it really sucks for business. LOL!
Not only that, but the local news reported that for the first time, the Hillsborough County schools had more Spanish speaking students entering the first grade than English speaking, and yet overall enrollment is down. They can’t recruit the teachers they need to teach bilingually. They showed one poor teacher with tears of frustration in her eyes struggling to teach students who couldn’t understand what she was saying. Most of the parents of these students can’t afford the prices of homes in the area, unless they double and triple up, otherwise they live in government/HUD/Farm Bureau assisted income restricted housing unless they can find cheap rentals, very few of which exist. The middle class taxpayer will be expected to foot the bill for the special needs of the students, but those taxpayers who haven’t left the area or are renting themselves are already stretched to the max by the cost of insurance, energy and rising taxes. The retiree population won’t pay for it. Can’t squeeze blood from a stone. The developers should have been required to pay special fees or taxes to the county to pay for this situation, especially since much of the cheap labor to build their developments was provided by those families. Now, at the END of the boom, the counties are starting to raise/impose impact fees. What a joke. Raise the impact fees after the building has ground to a halt. It’s like closing the barn door after the cow has gotten out.
The majority of those buyers had contracts, he said, and had put down 20 percent nonrefundable deposits.’
‘At least one buyer, Stephen Page, of Clearwater, said he’s unconcerned. ‘I’m looking forward to this going vertical,’ Page said, noting he paid just under $1 million for the two-bedroom condo he wants on the 34th floor.
Me thinks Mr Page may “go vertical” when he finds out he’s out 20 grand as the result of his wise investment!
Uhhh… thats 200 Grand!
$200,000.00: Just testing you guys!
Curt — 20 grand, or 200 grand?
Hey, isn’t it non-refundable on the buyer’s part only if he backs out? If the builder doesn’t deliver a condo to live in, shouldn’t he get his deposit back? I’d sue! And with Trump advertising it, you got deep pockets to go after! It sounds like this guy will also have emotional trauma that he needs to be compensated for too…
*** Trump for President***
“Knowing the Trump people, I have a lot of confidence this will get done”. ????
Entertainers,carpet baggers, con men. They identified Tampa was ripe for the picking as a lot of flippers made a lot of money on the massive bubble here. Not to mention the very materialistic and wanna-be mind set here.
I am sure they have done the math and it works out that if they just stop construction right now they will be ahead money wise with pocketing the deposits. They have taken all the money off the table and have left town.
I live in Tampa and when I heard they were building a Trump tower here, I wrote “Trump Tower coming here”, in the Cons column of my “Pros vs cons to buying”, checklist. Put the cons in the cons column, what could be more plain and obvious?
_________________________
I have to give credit to fellow blogger, I think it was “Cote”, for enlightening me on “entertainers”.
AMEN, Jannifl. You’ve completely nailed it. Tampa tends to be so naive when it comes to getting conned. Trump had Iorio dropping her panties faster than a high school graduate on prom night.
The hard truth is finally coming home to roost, yet a lot of home sellers still find it hard to accept it. Here in Daytona Beach, the inventory of homes is going up, up, up; the median price, nevertheless, is still one of the highest in the state. That practically shuts out potential middle-class buyers whom we should be wooing.
In addition, a number of condominiums scheduled for downtown have been cancelled. Condos under construction either on the river or ocean fetch prices of close to $400,000 to over $500,0000, which raises the question of where the buyers will be coming from. The speculators and investors are gone, so it’s not imprudent to guess that a number of foreclosures will be looming on the horizon.
Daytona Beach is not Palm Beach, Boca Raton, or Sarasota. If they are having problems selling those expensive houses and condos there, I foresee even greater problems here.
Florida, once known as the retirees’ haven, is getting to be Paradise lost.
“Fletcher owns two other rental homes, but this is his first attempt to do a quick resale.””
And yet another “investor” plays the market………………….
These guys are ALL OVER the place here. I had lunch on Friday and was reviewing my property tax bills while I ate. The server noticed and commented that his were going very much higher, which led to a discussion of local RE. Turns out he owns a home in Tampa, AND>>>>>>>>>>>>>a Condo on Treasure Island that he is trying to sell. NO BUYERS. NONE. He bought it last year.
The Gulf beaches from Sarasota to Tarpon springs are flooded with “FOR SALE” signs.
He also told me this interesting tid-bit. Concerning the Tax Bills……a friend of his just got his new assessments for his FIVE VACANT properties, and is very worried because he doesn’t have the money to pay the taxes. He is trying to Sell, also.
ha ha…….OHhhh! Oh ho ho…….. bwah..ha ha!!……..it’s really funny!!! These financial geniuses!
He asked me what I was doing. I told him sitting on the money I have in the bank. I won’t buy anything right now, but I will probably start looking again come Sept. Who know? Desperation may begin to set in. I looks like it already is………..
Oh Happy Day.
It is remarkable how little of the info is getting into the mainstream. Just last night I was talking to a construction guy. Found out he and his girlfriend used an interest-only loan with a teaser rate to buy a house. After questioning, I pointed out that he was paying $1,400/mo more than renting. He didn’t understand what that meant, and insisted that this was the only way a person could accumulate wealth. Then he went on to say he was glad he bought a new truck because if worse came to worse, he could put a camper shell on it and live there.
Wow, we have just created a new form of dumb hick. Being trailer trash was unaffordable so lets be camper shellshocked instead. His girlfreind will be thrilled, it’s SO spacious !
he could put a camper shell on it and live there.
____________________________________
BAHAAHAHAHAHAH!
He didn’t understand what that meant, and insisted that this was the only way a person could accumulate wealth.
It seems like there are some people who are DESTINED to be poor!
I’ve been married for 20 years and live very modestly. Both of us are fortunate to have decent jobs.
When we bought our house, 15 years ago, we went MUCH smaller and more modest that what the bank and R-E agent told use we can afford. We got a fixed-rate mortgage. When interest rates fell, we re-fied, but for a SHORTER TERM, didn’t take any money out, and eventually paid it off.
While friends of ours bought new $50K Lexuses ever other year, we bought more modest cars. We didn’t care if people didn’t think we were well off or not. which is the reason most people buy fancy cars.
We never “hit it big”, or “got lucky”. No big stock option payout, etc. We did both manage to get “executive level” positions in our companies and earn decent salaries.
The punchline: we have several million in investable assets (i.e., not counting the primary residence). All from being modest.
It’s hard for us to keep our mouths shut when “friends” give us financial advices about Real Estate, etc, but we do! (And what’s nice is, no relatives think we have anything, so we don’t get hit-up for “loans”).
If these fools only saved money from the time they started working ’til retirement, they’d be in fine shape.
A MEN…..I am in the same arena. I sold my house a year ago and am now renting. We are secure and now have most of our liquid assets in 6 mo. bills. 401 K’s and retirement intact .Waiting for the crash!
What’s funnier is during the dot-com boom, we saw friends put all their money into Cisco, Yahoo, etc. And at that time, a couple could buy up to 120K of IBONDS each year…paying 7%! Now, if you can buy a tax-advantaged bond at MORE than the historic long-term gain for the stock market, you’d be NUTS not to. We put most of our money during the dot-com years into ibonds. In just ver 10 years, that money will be 2x, and no federal tax.
As long as we have people with this mentality and total lack of knowledge in economics and the bigger picture, we will have home sales that exceed logic. There is going to be a big problem with the economy when this unfolds. We will all feel this asset deflation in some way or another . Most of the general public will survive but it is going to be painful to a lot of young get rich quick ,me now , generation.
Let these flipping servers eat dog pooh! That moron with 5 flips and 5 tax bills is one azz-hosed idiot. I can’t wait for him to make the front page with his much heralded swan dive.
Multiply that guy by thousands and then just imagine the amount of distressed properties hitting the market in the next year. No need to rush, it going to get alot worse, before it gets better.
I never even thought about taxes in the equation. I assumed everyone had their taxes escrowed, but I guess it makes sense that to keep your monthly payments as low as possible to not have escrows. That means what $3-5K per property. Great point on the tax effect.
I missed that, too — how did the flipper get five loans, none of which require escrow of property tax? In Florida, tax escrow relative to mortgaged properties is the rule, not the exception. Or at least it used to be.
I’m guessing that people in most areas would be astounded if they learned exactly how much profit was made on homes constructed and sold in the past 3-5 years. Most builders had locked in their land prices well in advance, so that added nothing to the cost equation. While it’s true that in the past 1-3 years lumber, cement and labor costs rose noticeably, the bottom line still should show huge profit relative to non-bubble years. That might explain why builders can afford to contunue building new spec houses at all — they can sucker-punch the used home sellers by undercutting their prices and still make some profit or at least break even and keep their subs fed.
Any contractors on the board?
I’m not a contractor, but I work in a city permit department. I can tell you that we’ve raised permit fees and added every possible new fee and tax on construction that we can think of. The builders and developers never even noticed or cared until just recently. In fact, a lot of them even offered to pay more for a quicker turn-around time for their project. Now I’m seeing them try to cheat every way they can by using undersized water connections, undervalued estimates, and outright lying about the scope of the work to keep costs down. The times have changed.
Chip, you are absolutely right on with this one. In Sacramento, it costs the production home builders about $75/sf. So 2,000 sf is costing $140,000 to build. Add $75,000 for the lot (assuming the lot improvement costs are passed on in bond payments to the buyer) and $75,000 for the permits. The total: $290,000. They are (or actually “were”) selling 2,000 sf homes here for $275/sf, or $550,000. That is $260,000 in obscene profit, but the stupid buyers were just shoveling it at them. Now that sales are down, they are dropping sales prices to $200/sf, or $400,000 and the old Flippers are instant FB’s (not to mention the RMBS buyers, etc). And the builders STILL have $110,000 in profit on the home. After Sept. 30, you will see the prices go to $350,000 ($175/sf) and then to $300,000 ($150/sf) as the builders cut costs by leaning on subs, cities, suppliers, land sellers, etc. So even if you bought at TODAY’s lowered prices, it only makes you TOMORROW’s FB!!
I’ve mentioned my own search elsewhere, but this is probably the right spot for it. The builders will lead the prices down in Tampa area at least. I have been looking to buy north of Tampa and have been offered 25% off ($80,000 - that is significant in my eyes) a spec house on premium lot, loaded with my choice of upgrades, closing costs paid & a buy down of mortgage to 6% on a 30 yr. fix. Basically its at $106 per cooled sq. ft. and the community has pools, playgrounds, clubhouse & fishing lake and the school district looks good. In my ten months of looking at resales, I haven’t found anything comparable, and only recently have I seen sellers making significant markdowns. Of course, these reseller markdowns are still coming off of ridiculous expectations and have to include the inflated price they paid to the builder when they bought in the high flying boom times. I have yet to see a newer SFR less than $125 per sq. ft. and most are at $150 - $200. The ones at $125 per sq. were in bland communities with no amenities. When the builders start selling new near $100 per sq. ft., which they can obviously do and still make a profit, then the resellers are TOAST.
An informal rule of thumb that I have heard a few times (please feel free to disagree/comment, I am not passing this on as gospel, just as something I have heard).
$75/sq ft builds a home
$100/sq ft builds a home with some upgrades
$150/sq ft builds a home with every upgrade you can imagine
and
$300/sq ft buys you a condo in WPB with no upgrades at all, in a marginal area that was converted from the ghetto (ok, so that’s not a rule of thumb.. Just my own particular spin on it).
Now, those are construction costs; and do not figure in the price of land. But, I would say if you looking at something that is $106/sq ft and includes the land; is in a decent neighborhood, and has some upgrades, that seems like a solid deal to me.
I know a guy out here who works for a architecture firm. He said that they were turning down all residential work (going commercial only) because construction costs for high-end houses were pushing $1000/sq ft. Obviously not many customers at that price
All other things being relatively equal,I would assume it is the land cost where you are that has things so skewed.
Mike,
You are probably right on the money with your estimates, and it is why I haven’t considered stepping in until I heard this deal. I assume that the builder wants to complete out the community and get whatever profit they can out of this particular piece of land, knowing that it may be more difficult to do so with newer land they may have optioned.
They also may want to get a person with good credit & a nice downpayment into their mortgage so they can profit from that income stream down the road.
Although I know there is still downside risk, these type of deals could save the builders by bringing fence sitters like me, who have personal reasons why they want to buy as soon as possible but saw the bubble, back to the market. It will kill the specuvestors who bought at $125-$150 per sq. and thought they were going to sell at $175-$200. This is basically what I have seen in the market - might have worked out for a few when all the builders had waiting lists (”Don’t wait for the builder - you can buy NOW!” was the ad I saw everywhere a year ago) but there will be much bloodshed of 2003-2005 speculators if builders go back to 2001 pricing.
An informal rule of thumb that I have heard a few times (please feel free to disagree/comment, I am not passing this on as gospel, just as something I have heard).
$75/sq ft builds a home
$100/sq ft builds a home with some upgrades
$150/sq ft builds a home with every upgrade you can imagine
and
$300/sq ft buys you a condo in WPB with no upgrades at all, in a marginal area that was converted from the ghetto (ok, so that’s not a rule of thumb.. Just my own particular spin on it).
Now, those are construction costs; and do not figure in the price of land. But, I would say if you looking at something that is $106/sq ft and includes the land; is in a decent neighborhood, and has some upgrades, that seems like a solid deal to me.
Wait until the construction workers are starving, their rates will come down. No kidding, I think you will see F250 Diesels with “Will build for food” signs on them by next spring. Construction costs will plummet, $100 sq/ft will get you a really well built home in the not so distant future.
Clock is ticking loudly for these Fla flippers. Every month they get more upside-down. Getting harder to write those monthly ckecks on all those empty money pits they call investment, especially since they are now depreciating albatrosses. Soon the tax liens will be placed on them unless the lenders step in and cough up the dough that is not in the impound a/c, because Jethro stopped paying 3 months ago. Let’s see Countrywide come up with all that booty in high property tax states. That will hammer earnings.
bhudda, very well done on all your hard work locating something decent here. Looks as if it is paying off.
Thanks, it has been nerve wracking but I think I have done pretty well finding my way to a really nice place on MY terms, not some idiotic flippers. I really thank everyone on this blog for keeping my eyes open to potential downside & pitfalls.
Also have gotten a financial education from some of the pros on here that I wish I had gotten in college (Was looking for a safe short term haven that my wife would understand, just parked a big chunk of change in 4 week t-bills, someone here mentioned they were over 5% so I went online & researched - they are over 5 and only a 1K minimum buying directly from the Treasury, just can’t find that liquidity/return/security at a bank)
I wish I could say that we were prescient in selling our Sarasota house in May 2005, but actually it was the concern (ok, fear) that sooner or later a hurricane would hit Sarasota and we’d still have a blue tarp on the remains of the roof a year later. I propose we start calling Florida’s housing downturn a “neutron hurricane” (sorta like a neutron bomb) in which people’s lives are disrupted and even ruined, but the properties are untouched. Remember, you heard the term here first.
How about this: after the “neutron hurricane”, a *real* hurricane hits. Who is going to board up those empty houses and condos? How much additional damage will the housing stock take if unprotected? How will the FBs pay for repairs?
Sorry to be so depressing…
A real concern - in the communities I saw with the most empty houses, many of the owners I looked up in tax records were far away - I don’t think their agents are gonna come running to board up their places considering the low probability of them getting a sale at flipper prices. I truly hope that the hurricane season ends with the same whimper it started with though, I think the real citizens of the south could use a break from the almighty, even though I could care less if the flippers all lost their roofs.
Buddhaman — an update on storm season, from the Orlando Sentinel today:
http://tinyurl.com/eklsx
They’re thinking that a fluke in wind shear is all that’s prevented storms so far, and that the shear normally drops off rapidly after July. It has been strangely quiet so far, but September usually is when the major action rolls in.
Thanks for the link - good reading.
In places like Texas it can be a “neutron tornado” and in California a “neutron earthquake”.
First time posting, long time reader. I have been tracking the inventory in the Orlando Tri-County Area (Seminole, Orange, and Osceola). Since 2/9/06 to yesterday, inventory for “active” Single Family Homes listed for sale in MLS has gone from 10,164 to 15,300. Obviously, this does not include “for sale buy owners.” I drive the local communities on the Northeast side of Orlando and see many for sale by owners signs. I believe the inventory of available SFH is higher. Other points of interest, the active listing for MLS in Orlando Tri County Area (which includes duplexes, condos, vacant land, manuf homes, etc . . . has gone from 13,883 on 2/9/06 to 21,186 on 8/18/06. For the Six County Area (Lake, Volusia, Brevard, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole, total active MLS Listings has gone from 21,107 on 4/4/06 to 29,060 on 8/18/06: SFH active MLS has gone from 16,221 on 4/4/06 to 21,924 on 8/18/06.
If a 1000 people are moving to FL everyday they are not buying in the Central Florida. Or they can’t get out of their houses where they are coming from.
Interestingly, I have noticed prices have just begun to move. But there are many sellers still in denial.
“But there are many sellers still in denial.”
I’m in the area and also see a strong increase in FSBO signs. Best theory I’ve read here about that is the sellers are not accepting the agents’ suggestions or conditions for listing prices and are going it alone. By gosh, it’s worth $X and I’m going to get it!
Once enough newpaper articles come out similar to the one in Fresno, from a different post today, then reality should start sinking in.
Same here in Tampa. The Tampa Trib, which gets huge revenues from real estate ads, has been largely mum on the issue, with a few softball articles. I admire the Herald Tribune, which does not seem to be afraid to tell it like it is. But Sarasota and Manatee counties have always played by different rules, being somewhat more progressive on quality of life issues. Also the population there seems to have a high intelligence level and concern for community. In Sarasota, the people voted to pay higher taxes for their schools. How many places do that? It was just a shame that it has turned out that they didn’t need it, since the school enrollment has declined. Sarasota is a charming area, I hope it survives all this craziness.
I’ve been reading this blog for quite a long time, and I want to thank Ben for this blog. But enough of that. My wife and I are both natives of southwest Florida, and the things that made this economy work are in serious jepordy. The tourists that used to flock to Florida from all over the world arn’t coming like they used to. The price of gas, and the fear of flying due to terror threats are taking thier toll. Tourism is down tremendously. A thousand people a day came to Florida at one time, but now the numbers have changed dramatically. Most came for the jobs in construction or the medical field. However with retirees moving away and the baby boomers whom everyone claimed would save every tourist area in the U.S. are not wealthy enough to afford the exuberant housing prices in California, Florida, Arizona, etc.. Has everyone forgotten what the stock market crash of 2000 did to 401ks, and let’s not forget our friends ar Enron who singlehandedly affected pensions throughout the entire U.S.. In our area ( Ft. Myers/ Cape Coral ) almost every person I talk to is either already or planning on moving out of the state. The industries that saved us from other housing booms in Florida are dying a slow and painful death. Citrus growers have been selling off thier land to northern developers with big dreams and a lack of awareness of history. Cattle ranchers found it was cheaper to sell than deal with all the regulations. Medical…with the average retiree priced out of the market, it’s just a matter of time before that market is also in trouble. Manufacturing… most of these companys are moving elsewhere due to the cost of electric and the iability to pay 98,000 a year for thier employees to afford a median priced home. Construction…82% of the working population are directly or indirectly dependant on this field to survive. It used to be very common to see out of state plates on our roadways. Unfortunately, now the out of state plates usually contain illegal workers looking for jobs so they can ship thier money to thier families back home. So in a nutshell Florida is in deep trouble, but denial and greed as always, is just making a bad situation worse.
Landedeal, a huge AMEN to you, too. Seems like I’m doing a lot of praying for Florida on this blog today, just gave a big AMEN to another Florida poster. We are in deep doo-doo here, maybe more so than any other state because of multiple factors. Jeb is lucky he is leaving office soon and I’ll bet he knows it, too. Barring any further unusual events, he will leave office revered and his successor will be reviled as they struggle to deal with the mess.
So True !
It’s even worse than anyone imagines. The only reason Florida has made it through these recent hurricanes is because of the fact that Jeb has connections, so he makes sure the gas is here, the supplies get through, the relief checks are handed out, etc. I suppose that’s Florida’s reward for the 2000 elections. Florida would have been toast long ago had not Jeb been governor. Now that he’s leaving, here comes the offshore drilling and if you want to know what Florida will be like after future hurricanes, take a good gander at Louisiana. Unless some miracle occurs.
Or they can’t see how they can afford to give the realtor their cut as market has already moved south so much
Well, I have noticed some bitter Realtor’s lately here in the Sarasota area but this one takes the cake. I emailed him regarding a new house that he had listed for $125k higher than the same exact model a few miles up the road. Although I did insinuate that this was a flipper, I couldn’t believe this response:
“Sounds like you didn’t cash in over the past few years and now your pissed at everyone who did.
I’ve done numerous deals and so has this investor and he has made well over 700K in the past 2 years alone so he’s done a little more than sit on the couch eating cheetos and watching Jerry Springer so go back to your cubicle tomorrow and make sure your not late so you don’t get fired by your BOSS.
PS: Don’t worry, the market will turn around again within the next 13 to 18 months so be sure to make some money next time so your not so angry at everyone who did.
PPSS: FYI, 378K plus a pre-pay penalty = 400K jackass. What’s the address of that same house for 285K so I can go buy it! That’s a deal and you probably let it go right by you right?”
I think I am going to forward it to the managing broker of the office he works for……
That is hilarious - as these flippers start eating into their 700K profits on the next ones they leveraged up to, I suspect that they and their realtors will become even more bitter indeed.
Sarasota anecdotal.
I am training a new employee who told me she just moved here from Sarasota. So of course I couldn’t wait to ask, “So have you sold your house there yet”? She said, “Oh no, we never did buy there we just rented, the real estate people there were so snobby”. She went on to say they had wanted to spend about $350,000 and the realtor said that that might buy a double wide mobile home. She also went on to say that here little girl played with another little girl whose parents were riding the real estate tidal wave there and she just heard that they are totally broke and getting a divorce.
Yeah, you should hear the folks from Sarasota and Manatee counties who have long been established residents talk about some of the a$$hats the invaded the area during the boom. Some fled, some stayed and just shake their heads sadly at what has happened. Your new employee wouldn’t have too much of problem finding a place for $350,000.00 now. Many of the boom invaders looked real good and acted like they had lots of money, but when you scratch the surface, nothing’s there.
PS: Don’t worry, the market will turn around again within the next 13 to 18 months
If he repeats the magic numbers often enough, they just might come true. LOL.
Perhaps forward the email, but it doesn’t matter - this realtor will be in hell soon enough.
It would be funny if he got fired by his BOSS
Residents dreading insurers’ letters
As the insurance crisis deepens, policy cancellations and sharply higher premiums have South Florida homeowners reeling.
BY BEATRICE E. GARCIA
bgarcia@MiamiHerald.com
Many South Florida homeowners are approaching their mailboxes with dread these days, anticipating a notice from their insurance company. Such a letter can only be bad news — either a massive rate increase or worse yet, a policy cancellation.
For some consumers, like Jill Puppilo of Davie, it’s both.
First Protective Insurance canceled the fourth-grade teacher’s homeowners policy soon after repairs from Hurricane Wilma were completed.
Finding no other willing insurer, she landed with Citizens Property Insurance, the state-run pool. Her premium is now nearly $7,500 — about three times what she had paid last year.
”When I first heard the new premium, I got tears in my eyes. Now I’m resigned to it,” Puppilo says.
As insurance companies continue to reduce exposure in this hurricane-prone state, more than a dozen are notifying homeowners that their policies will be canceled at renewal time.
”Companies are getting rid of anything that’s borderline,” says Dulce Suarez-Resnick, an agent with HBA Insurance in Miami.
That means insurers are bailing on older homes or coastal properties. Sometimes, they are just reducing policies in a certain region.
Companies quietly cutting back in recent weeks include Florida Family, Universal Property & Casualty, Clarendon Insurance, Liberty Mutual, and Vanguard Fire & Casualty.
Meanwhile, the Florida units of State Farm, Nationwide and Allstate have been trimming nearly 200,000 policies from their books.
”Some companies have too much exposure in Florida. If we’re going to have more hurricanes, then they have to balance the needs of policyholders against their financial health,” says William Stander, government affairs representative for the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.
One of those is Tower Hill, which is cutting about 20 percent of its agents throughout the state as it pares policies. It now has some 700 agents statewide, with nearly 250,000 policies in force.
Donald Matz, Tower Hill Insurance Group’s president, says the company’s action is driven by the higher cost of reinsurance — that’s insurance that insurers buy to help cover catastrophic losses — and premium rates that could still be too low to cover losses the company expects.
Also, one rate hike for Tower Hill has already been approved, and the company has requested a second one to cover higher reinsurance costs. The two add up to a nearly 50 percent increase for homeowners in some parts of the state, Matz says.
As private companies drop policies, the state’s insurer of last resort continues to swell. Already the largest insurer of homes, condos, apartments and mobile homes in Florida, Citizens is the only option for many homeowners receiving nonrenewal notices.
Citizens now has 1.2 million policies. On July 1, it took on more than 300,000 policies from the three now-defunct Poe Financial Group firms.
Citizens is ”becoming the greatest gift to the insurance industry,” says State Rep. Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach. “Insurers can walk away from any policy they believe will present the slightest risk. They can get rid of the lemons and keep all the cherries.”
Agents and company officials say the homeowners insurance market tightened considerably as hurricane season got under way. Only a handful of private insurers are writing new policies, but far fewer than before. For instance, Travelers is allowing each agent in Miami-Dade County to write two policies per quarter. Until July 1, it was writing about four to five policies per agent each month.
Florida Family and Universal of North America stopped writing wind coverage after July 1.
Joan Hernandez of Homestead was distressed when the bill from her home insurer, United Property & Casualty, hit her mailbox. The new premium was $11,529; last year’s was $3,795.
So she got an inspection done and received discounts for her roof and shutters. She also opted for higher deductibles and reduced or eliminated other coverages, such as for her screen enclosure.
Her revised premium will be closer to $7,000, but that’s still almost double. ”If it keeps going like this, we will have no choice but to go without insurance,” she says.
Norvell A. S. Holyfield of Northwest Dade is paying her $4,502 premium in several installments. She’s considering borrowing from a long-term healthcare policy for the next payment. Two years ago, her premium was $900.
”The money you’ve set aside for your retirement you’ll have to use today just to keep what you have now,” Holyfield says.
Buddhaman,
Just wait. If you need to move to Tampa then rent for a year first and see the lay of the land. I have been monitoring 3 zip codes here since 2000. From 2001 to 2004 I monitored it almost daily. I memorized the square footages and became aware very early of a lot of funny business going on, like the flips and relistings. In late 2004 there were only about 20 properties for sale under $250,000 in the 3 zip codes. In about Oct-Nov of 2005 and almost OVERNIGHT, I looked at realtor.com and almost puked as there were suddenly over 200 listings under $250,000 in these 3 zips. I was truely nauseated as it showed how manipulated the market is here, and the level of GREED. And if you look at the inside pictures of the condos/houses here they are all empty. Big big bubble here.
Jannifl, Buddhaman,
My wife and I are from Tampa and we presently live in the Dayton, OH area. We’d like to move back to Tampa by fall next year. I’ve been pretty dismayed at the rapid price appreciation in Tampa but have been encouraged lately. A friend of mine has had his house on the market for a couple of months now in Wesely Chapel. (He bought in 03 at about 180k, originally listed at 330k and is now at 299k. OK, I’m a little jealous at the increase, so yeah I actually like to see it go down. I guess I’m going to hell) Also, I’ve seen alot of empty places on realtor.com. So anyway, what areas seem to be the best bet for the long term? My wife grew up in Temple Terrace and has fond memories, but the last time we visited it wasn’t looking so good.
Trust me Its not the Florida you remember.
Temple Terrace is looking even worse now. Also avoid Town and Country area like the plague. That area used to be kind of nice, but has recently developed a major gang problem and people are trying to unload, since the shootings are now in the neigborhood streets. I happen to like Pasco County, especially East Pasco, but about the only insurance you can get is with Citizens Insurance, because of the sinkhole problem in the center and west part of the county. What are your requirements? Do you want to live in the city boundaries, what sort of commute time can you handle, how large of a place, how near the water, etc?
Carrollwood is still nice, also Odessa on the Hillsborough side of the border and some areas of New Tampa.
Also the older part of Riverview.
I agree with Palmetto.
I like the Wesley chapel 33549 zip. I don’t monitor that zip, but I know a lot of people who live there. Car insurance is a lot cheaper in Pasco than Hillsborough, but if you have a long commute that might be sucked up in gas. I am amazed at how many people commute to Downtown and the MacDill from there. But I guess than they can get so much more house for their money there than South Tampa and there are really no jobs in Wesley Chapel. Lower property taxes have been a major selling point, but it has had explosive growth and new schools so that might not last. Right now everyone in 33549 is screaming about their homeowners insurance. A guy I used to work with said that his homeowners went up to $4,000 a year on his townhome. They have had rapid appreciation up there, the prices are on average double what they were in 2002. I know another girl who bought a townhome in Meadow Point in Sept 2005, absolute peak of the bubble there, I could not talk her into waiting. At that time stuff up there was selling in one day and she had to wear a beeper and race off from work to go make an offer immediately. Well in March she calls me to come up to look at an open house near hers and I counted 16 others for sale in that little circle. She said, Jannifl “it is a great time to buy, because at least you have choices, I didn’t have any choices”. Anyway it is now August and none of them has sold. The one I looked at was owned by an individual who had a job relocation. There was another townhome project started down the road from hers and they have stopped that.
All the people I know who live there love it. But they are under increasing pressure from gasoline prices, taxes and insurance.
I think prices will come down there. I think you should rent a house for a year and do your own leg work. When my friend was looking she did not tell her about everything that was for sale.
I posted on a different link but urge everyone to read the Barron’s article on page 33. I do not have an online subscription. Talk about depressing.
Thought you might like this info (from my comment on another blog, please excuse the concrete references, its more local (Palm Beach)):
How’s this for a “real” price drop. I used to live in Legacy Place in PB Gardens. They went condo about a year ago, and I was given an option to buy at that time.
My price 230K for a 1BR/1BA, with 800 sq/ft. I was promised that would be the lowest price offered (although it was never put in writing), and told that “I would never be able to buy anything if I did not get in now” by the condo conversion company. I laughed at their prices, and moved to my current residence in CityPlace.
Anyway, take a look at today’s paper. They have a 1BR/1BA advertised in Legacy Place for 189K. So, had I purchased my unit, I would be out ~40K right now? And that was my “special” price, because I was already a renter there. Yeah, it was special all right..
Anyway, this is a huge % drop. I think their inital prices were absolutly nuts (they wanted 250K for a 1BR), but still from 230K to 190K in under a year? That’s huge. And its just beginning.
I have said this before, but the “manufactured” areas, like CityPlace, Town Centre, Downtown, etc are going to hurt the most. These areas can be recreated anywhere, for a fraction of the 2-300/sq foot cost they are currently asking. And they are trendy, and come in and out of style. CityPlace, in particular, has a real problem right now, many businesses have/are leaving because the foot traffic/sales are not what they were promised. Well, duh, nobody lives in the 1000 condo units that are right next to it! Its probably about 30-50% occupied. Your “captive” audience is not here, and will not be here until the prices return to a level where younger people can afford to purchase them.
And if the building is less than 50% owner occupied when you want to sell…no one will loan the prospective buyers the money. Well maybe at extremely high rates and 40% down.
More anecdotals from Tampa, and why I am in the “return to 1999 prices” camp.
Around the late 2001-2002 period many people I know bought new houses in new developments here. In short order all were very strapped financially, barely eeking by, watching their budgets like a hawk and complaining rabidly about an extra $25.00 here and there for an unanticipated fee.
One woman I know was losing weight and not eating so her family could, it crossed my mind to take a food basket over, but I felt weird about delivering a food basket to a person who lived in a gated community. Finally their problem was solved when a friend who works in a nursing home delivered the left overs from the nursing home kitchen everyday. Yes indeedy. Along about 2003-04 suddenly there was no more nursing home food for lunch, she added a sunroom to her house and bought 2 new cars and an expensive overseas vacation.
Another woman I know had asked me if I could move in with her in 2002-03ish to help with her mortgage payments. She was working tons of overtime just to make ends meet. I asked her how she could handle the stress and strain and being dead tired all the time, she said she just prayed everyday that she would have enough money to make it through the week. Suddenly, around 2003-04ish she pulls me aside and says she is getting a big chunk of money and wanted my ideas on how to invest it. More recently she paid cash for breast augmentation surgery.
Two more put in pools, another an addition, another multiple cruises, etc etc.
My point is these middle class seemingly successful people could
not afford and were barely hanging on with their “basis” of their 2002 house prices. If it had not been for the infusion of home equity cash I think most of these 2002 buyers would have lost their homes by now.
So they could not afford what they started with and they added much more debt by buying depreciating items(except for the boob job). They are doomed. Prices will definetly go down to 1999 levels.
Oh and I love anecdotals because they are way ahead of the statistics. What you see with your own eyes is always truer.
And there you have, the Bubble, Tampa style.
Who said a boob job wasn’t a depreciating item?
In the March 2006 issue of the Journal of Econimics, there is an article by two economists Mark Mogius of Harvard and Tanya Rosenblat of Wesleyan in which they explored what they called the “beauty premium”. It explains that attractive people get paid more, on average 5%, than their plainer looking collegues. In part because they are seen as more productive.
This gal is in her mid 20’s, so even if one were to depreciate out the boobs as a capital expense over 30 years as you would say a furnace, she still comes out ahead.
In addition she is single and beyond the extra income she will enjoy she will be able to attract more potential mates and with the increased pool to chose from pick one that has a higher income.
Of all the things I see people spend their equity on, plastic surgery seems to be economics-wise the only thing that makes sense. It cannot be reposessed and if everything goes to pot you still have it working for you. In bad times you will still make more money and you will still be one of the first to be hired, last to be let go.
Right or wrong that is just the way it is.
Janni, there are two ways to read your post above. I’ll post answers to both interpretations:
1) That was one of the most brilliant pieces of sarcasm I have ever read. I love the part about the girl “coming out ahead”.
2) The beauty premium will only work out for her if the rest of the physical package is compatible with the boobs AND (big AND) if the boob job is successful over time, which depends upon her health and the skill of her doctor, always a concern in Florida. For an old acquaintance of mine, who looked like a fashion model to begin with, but just had to have a boob job, that asset depreciated almost as soon as she drove it off the lot. The materials migrated to other parts of her body, bringing about illness and three years of rehabilitative surgery. As a result, her finacee broke up with her and the physical and emotional stress eroded her looks and sapped her energy. Any surgery is always more of a gamble than an investment, IMHO. Some hit the jackpot, some come up snake eyes.
I meant “fiancee”, sheesh, the bubble is going to my brain.
I also chuckle when people tell me to buy because I’ll never be rich if I keep renting. They think they are going to be rich because they bought an overprices property with no money down at the peak of the biggest bubble of history.
I ran into a girl I went to high school with a few weeks back while shopping. We hadn’t seen each other for twenty years and got to chit chatting. She told me that they she and her husband had bought a house a couple of years ago in such and such neighborhood…that her husband had been unemployed for almost two years (presently working)…and she was wasn’t employed either. I asked her how they managed to get by if nobody was working? She said it was really cool! They were able to get “extra loans” from the bank and since they both had so much free time…they traveled! Long story short they presently have their house up for sale. I casually remarked that I had heard that the market was really tough. At this point she kind of got stiff and nervous and said they were having a really tough time selling…at which point the conversation sort of died out. I hope she gets her affairs sorted out.
I hope she gets her ass handed to her in a hat.
I saw a house for sale in St. Pete Beach. The owners were asking $250… it didn’t sell. So what did they do? Painted it orange and re-listed it for $299.
They just lowered to $279.
Do sellers really think we’re that stupid? Amazing.
Orange is so out of style ..
LOL
“One local seller who recently bit the bullet and lowered his asking price is Bill Fletcher, an Ormond Beach resident who had been trying to sell a two-bedroom starter home for $147,900. After four months of waiting for a buyer, he’s lowered his price to $143,900.”
“‘My theory is that the market is very saturated right now, and interest rates are going up,’ Fletcher said. Fletcher bought the 50-year-old fixer-upper in March for $96,000, painted inside and out and replaced its roof and heating and air-conditioning system. Fletcher owns two other rental homes, but this is his first attempt to do a quick resale.”
…oh, is that your THEORY, Mr. Fletcher? Must be time, after four months of I’m sure ever-increasing nervousness, to lower your price TWO POINT SEVEN PERCENT. you Wheeler Dealer you.
My evil glee at idiots like this getting theirs in the coming ugliness is tempered by remembering the ripples of pain and hardship it’s going to emit that will touch All of Us. Even the non Sheeple GreedHeads.