Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market? Price Reduced? Builder incentives? Nervous flippers? Here are some accounts from around the US. From New Jersey, “For the first time in a decade, home prices in the region that includes the Shore have declined. Asbury Park residents Peter and Lauren Morris are buying a Victorian-style house in Freehold, their first home. Peter Morris said the couple got the house for ‘considerably less’ than the $379,000 asking price.”
“‘We knew that a lot of homes were for sale, but we also knew that their prices were not realistic,’ he said.”
The Twin Cities. “In an increasing number of neighborhoods, a slowdown in real estate sales has complicated life for sellers of many types of housing. But the marketing task may be especially daunting for the sellers of condo-apartments. ‘Where a frenzy of apartment overbuilding has occurred in recent years, sellers know they face intense competition for buyers,’ says Mark Nash, a real estate broker.”
“The challenge can be particularly severe if many similar units are already on the market within the same building or complex.”
From Michigan. “Bruce Brock can’t sell his house on Lakeshore Terrace in Fort Gratiot. It’s been on the market for about two years. The neighborhoods around his home are dotted with ‘for sale’ signs. Between January and April 2005, 31% of Michigan homes listed for sale sold. Through April 2006, 21% of listed homes had been sold.”
“‘You can’t get a house sold unless you keep lowering prices, and sometimes that is not possible,’ said Bob Herber, a real-estate sales associate in Port Huron. Finding a buyer is especially tough for people trying to sell their home for more than $170,000, said Cliff Schrader. ‘It’s the worst I’ve seen,’ said Schrader, who has been in business since 1983.”
The Voice of San Diego. “If this is indeed a buyer’s market why are buyers standing on the sidewalks anxiously hoping for a fire sale? Were investors passive about driving up prices in the first place? No, they were sharks who changed the market for everyone by marching up to the front doors of homes that weren’t even for sale and throwing cash around.”
“So stop being passive. Be a shark. It’s a buyer’s market. If this bubble is going to burst, let us bring out the needles.”
Some quotes from local classifieds here in northern Arizona:
‘Brand New 3br 2ba. Just finished, never occupied. Only $499,000′
‘Giant 4 Br. 4.5 ba. Brand new home surrounded by virgin government land. Should be completed Feb. 06. $2,200,000.’
(yes that one has been running since before 2/06)
‘A tale of two houses. How does ‘walking into equity’ from day one sound? Need a big house in Pine Valley for $599,900? OR, a cute 2/1 in the Chapel area for $450,000?..PLUS a $10,000 allowance to buyer. Seems like Christmas has come early this year!’
‘Reduced - Motivated Seller! Has already relocated for new job & bought another home! Custom built in 2004. Pride of ownersahip shows! $269,900.’
Ben and Rick (From Pigginton) are on the air right now (2:20 pm pst) on KCBQ.COM
Damn! Came in right at the end when Rich and Ben were doing their closing statements. Great plugs for both sites!
Will this be recast?
Ben, good job with the appearance. I came on the show early as the caller “jack.” no exaggerations at all in regard to the guy with 27 homes from Temecula down to Chula Vista trying to find a property manager to manage his holdings of all zero down 100% financed homes.
speaking of Chula Vista, see my new post on that city at City in Focus: Chula Vista
Surrounded by government land? That means you’ll get a prison, low-income housing project, a half-way house, or a garbage dump next door to you! Nobody would ever invest or purchase their dream home next to a “question mark” like land owned by the government!
Also, someone posted this Craigslist link with the first ‘price reduced’ I have ever seen on a rental:
‘$2100 / 3br - *REDUCED* Single family house, fenced yard, pets ok’
Pets OK seems to be a common flipper tactic.
here’s another ‘rent reduced’ I found on long island craigslist:
http://tinyurl.com/ovg39
reduced from $1500 to $1425.
The only reason they’re asking that much for that POS is the ocean view. South Shore Nassau is heavily working/middle class.
In my area, that piece of well- ” junk ” would rent for about $750.00. Seriously.
The first piece of “junk”, not the 2nd one at tinyurl. Couldn’t quite make that one out so I can’t make a comparison….
I see several price reductions on rentals from my MLS service every morning. This is in Northern VA.
Tracking MLS rental inventory:
5/8/05
Prince William ——- 383
Fairfax ———— 1,134
Loudoun ————– 318
7/10/06
Prince William ——- 700
Fairfax ————- 1,352
Loudoun ————– 525
Fauquier/Culpeper —– 105
08/19/06
Prince William ——- 850
Fairfax ————- 1,577
Loudoun ————– 610
Fauquier/Culpeper —– 135
In my neck of Loudoun, townhouses peaked last fall at $450k. The last sale was in March at $430k. Some identical units have lowered their prices to $380k-$395 this past week, with one dufus still holding out for $430k.
So, prices have fallen 11% in a year.
Based on 150x rental, these places are worth $270k-$300k. Another year or two of 11% decreases and we should be close to what they are worth (assuming the base increases by 5% a year).
I’ve seen several “Reduced” listings for rentals for Boulder, CO on Craigslist.
It’s seems like a loser of a rental strategy: “Rent my place for a reduced amount this year, but since my head is in the clouds, I’ll raise it back to a ‘normal’ rate next year!” C’mon…
I bought a 1 bedroom condo in Whalley, Surrey a year ago for 73k. In June of this year (06) the comps on similiar condos around my complex were around 123k - 140k.
Having lurked around this blog, I realized it was time to sell, and listed it on the lower end of the comps at 120k.
Just before my listing came on the market, two condos in my complex came in at 109k and were immediately sold. Apparently, from what my realtor said, some investor had decided to dump.
That shook me up. Did the investor know something I didn’t? He didn’t even try to maximize his profit. He just wanted… out.
I took his cue and immediately lowered my asking to 113k, and sold it in a week.
It’s been over a month now, and the condos in the 123k and up in my complex are still sitting.
I’m convinced I did the right thing.
I’m looking at properties in Nova Scotia. They are CHEAP! Any comments on buying there? I’m close to retirement.
PitteSue wrote:
I took his cue and immediately lowered my asking to 113k, and sold it in a week.
It’s been over a month now, and the condos in the 123k and up in my complex are still sitting.
I’m convinced I did the right thing.
———————————————————————-
You are a very wise seller. As I travel around the country, I am astonished at the number of decrepit travel trailers, boats, cars, and houses that are unused, rusting/rotting away a great many of which will never be used again. Had the owner decided to sell and price realistically, almost certainly a great many of these things could have provided further use and value.
The failure to price realistically will cost many sellers a lot of money. Well done. You have my respect.
Not mine. You sound like a flipper.
Pretty classless comment. You sound like a bitter renter or are jealous you missed out on the fun.
I doubt he was a flipper, but if he was who cares? Are they all evil in your mind? Do you lump stock traders in that catagory too?
Actually, it wasn’t my intention to flip.
I needed a place to stay, and the condo in Whalley was inexpensive, due to it’s reputation of high crime.
I was expecting real estate in 2005 to crash in Vancouver, but figured even if my 73K condo took a 20% dive over two years, it would still be cheaper than paying rent for two years. I paid cash for the condo.
To my surprise the condo went up by 50% in about a year!
I realized I got lucky…. I took the money and ran…
I was in Nova Scotia last fall. It is beautiful.
“Cheap” is relative, of course. There has been a significant run up there as well. There’s been a lot of foreign money buying up oceanfront property - Germans, Arabs that sort of thing. The Canucks are a friendly lot but I suspect they are getting fed up. Can’t blame ‘em.
If you’re looking for a relatively affordable place to retire, great. If you’re looking to get rich quick, it’s too late.
Is this in British Pounds or US Dollars?
Canadia Dollars.
I forgot this is an American blog. OOps.
I’ve heard from several realtors in Vancouver that sales have slowed considerably. Received a letter from Polygon builders offering a 3.95 teaser rate on a new condo, so obviously sales are indeed slow. You timed the market right, congrats.
Prices in NS are comparatively cheap but will be really cheap in 2-3 yrs. Hold off and you’ll get bargains later.
Vancouver is a very long way from Nova Scotia….
But point well taken. Patience will pay…
Some prices in NS are so cheap it would boggle my if they can be lower.
I’m looking at a oceanview, older 3 bedroom house for under 30K.
I suppose I could wait, but I hate paying rent.
fyi–those houses are cheap because they aren’t vacation homes, they’re far (3hr or more drive) from Halifax, they’re in very foggy areas, they’ll cost lots to heat. People have been moving to Hfx from everywhere else in NS for years. The warmest water is on the Northumberland strait (across from PEI)–I’d look there: less convenient from Hfx or the US, fewer vacation homes…..
There are beachfront prices like that in Australia, you just have to go far enough away from the major cities. (That’s a loooooong way these days, you can basically forget about the entire East coast.)
By all reports, places in the US like Buffalo and Detroit have some as well.
Just don’t expect to get anything if you want to move, there’s often no resale market at all. That’s why the prices are so low in the first place. You’ll usually find a declining population as well.
Holy Mackeral, guys.
That info is new to me! I’ll take that into account when I’m looking at properties.
That was very helpful. Thanks!
The roads are bad in many rural parts of Nova Scotia making winter driving downright dangerous. As someone mentioned above, prices have risen in the last five years. My Halifax house is estimated up about 40% in that time.
Whether we’ll see the massive crash expected in Vancouver is hard to say. Less of a rise will probably mean less of a crash, and homes are still affordable for middle class families, even in Halifax where the unemployment rate is about 5% and people make the same as in Vancouver.
My mother and father in law are in town this weekend. They wanted to look around Jacksonville to get a feel for the city. They enjoy looking at open houses so we drove into two gated communities that had several homes for sale today. In both areas, sellers were waiting in their cars searching for people driving up to open houses. This was the first time that this had happened to me, so I was very surprised.
When we left the first open house, a car drove up with a lady in her mid thirtys. She rolled down her window and handed us three flyers for three houses she had to sell “immediately” in the neighborhood. She said her husband had been transfered so they needed to sell their three “investment homes” ASAP. She begged us to drop by one, so we did for fun. We were nice and explained how we thought it was over valued and she would have better luck if she lowered her price to below what a new one in the neighborhood would cost. She argued a little, but everyone was nice overall.
In the second community we were approached by two more sellers in cars. Both gave us a sob story about how they had to sell their houses now, blah blah blah, below appraised value, blah blah blah, instant equity, blah blah blah. We weren’t as kind this time and moved on.
What’s next, a dozen illegals standing on every neighborhood corner flicking baseball cards with pictures of houses for sale on them as you walk by? Not sure how successful this is in Vegas, but by the looks of the gutters I’d say not very.
Both the Vegas girls and the mortgages would probably give me a heart attack ……
It’s funny you say that because having illegal alliens standing on corners with signs and passing out flyers has been happening for months. No baseball cards though.
But if you do make a “selection”, then Juan can cellphone the pimp (I mean seller) who picks you up in a car. The seller asks you what you’re looking for, on your way to your ‘personal and totally confidential’ appointment and showing ……
I probably should have written this better. The people were driving around staking out other people’s open houses in their neighborhood. They were driving up to anyone who looked like a buyer trying to unload their houses.
This is mind boggling. I don’t think this happened in previous real estate downturns, and the current one is only beginning!
This sounds like something in a bad dystopian futuristic movie, perhaps like the bad “alternate reality” in Back to the Future.
You were crystal clear. The desperation of the sellers was just perfect fodder for a little sarcasm.
Wow. If some seller did that to me, I would have a fit and jump in my car and leave. Geeze. When my first husband & I were desperate to sell not one but two of our houses (consecutively, not simulataneously) due to his losing 2 jobs in a row, I made sure we were always out of the houses for way longer than the showings would take….
I think you might be missing the point. Desperate sellers are piggybacking on the marketing efforts of other sellers in the neighborhood. The issue is, they aren’t lowering price (most likely can’t afford to). If they would battle on price, then the action would really be kickin’ ! The flip side of this is that these properties that are “for sale” may be extra inventory that isn’t reported by the realtors, if they are FSBO.
I expect that a certain amount of desperate flippers will start getting religion soon and you’ll see some pretty significant price cuts soon, to where the market gets sheared back about to where it was a year and a half ago; just when flipping wasn’t such a well-kept secret anymore. But I think the more significant reductions back to what the fundamentals would justify are going to come slower; probably in the next year or so, esp. after some of these toxic loans start resetting.
The “labor-day massacre” is upon us! Stay tuned!
Seeing this housing bubble play out as predicted is fascinating. Someone should make a video documentary of it for future generations to enjoy, or learn from.
“Seeing this housing bubble play out as predicted is fascinating. Someone should make a video documentary of it for future generations to enjoy, or learn from.”
Sadly, future generations WILL NOT learn from this. There will be more bubbles and more FBs. People do not want to learn from history because they think it’s dull.
“Psssst! Wanna buy a house, big fellah? Cheap! Me so desperate. You love it longtime…”
LOL! I laugh every time you make this “Full Metal Jacket” play on words!
This is unbelievable! I wonder if there will be turf wars where people at the first gated housing tracts will hire people to keep the other sellers from approaching buyers entering their property. Bizarre!
This anecdote truly marks the beginning of the end.
Can you imagine how loudly the Realtors would scream if MSNBC retold this story?
Lets see. My sisters San Jose $740K townhouse has been on the market for three weeks with two open houses and practically no traffic. Nonetheless they have bid on a house. Here’s the kicker. The couple are in their 80’s, have lived in the house all their lives, both have full teachers pensions and are sitting on over $800K in equity as the place was bought cheap and long paid off. The husband has medical conditions and they claim they want to move to Orgeon to be with family. My sister made the only offer she could afford which was $40K below asking. Their response ? “We’re in no hurry…….”
I told my sister, “not to be mean but when you’re eighty you’d better be in a damn hurry….”. The greed astounds me.
My brother lives next door to a pair of 80-somethings in Pacific Beach. Their house has been on the market for 1.2 million for over a year with no price decrease (zillow sez it should be in the 800s - it’s only 2 bdrm). They, too, say they are in no hurry to leave, although poor health prompted the home sale idea in the first place. Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking on their equity… down, down, down…. people of ANY age should realize their days on the planet are finite! Better to get out sooner with more money than later with regrets and anger. I can mentally see them, “We’re not GIVING IT AWAY…”
For the record, they have owned it free and clear for many decades. Why the greed now?
Why the greed now? Maniacal thinking. I posted recently about this. Older folk who have seemed pretty level headed and rational all their lives are now sucked into this mania. If the older folk can’t see to rational, I’m not sure how long it will take for the majority to get there. It’s pretty frightening.
And the kicker is - I’ve spoken to a few of those I lump into this “older, used to be rational” category and they’ll all admit that these home prices are unfathomable to them. But, they’re perfectly happy to jump on this bandwagon because - cha ching! - they see the big payday. And having lived thru some very difficult times in their lives (financially speaking), I’m sure they see this is the pot of gold at the end of life’s rainbow.
I told my sister, “not to be mean but when you’re eighty you’d better be in a damn hurry….”. The greed astounds me.
Mo Money, I’m wondering if the elderly couple was in no hurry because your sister still has a house to sell. I’m assuming she asked for a contingency. They may be thinking they’ll sit forever if she still has a house to sell. Or they may be thinking she might not qualify for a bridge.
Also if they are moving into a smaller place and leaving their lifelong home, many are not in a hurry. For them, that move symbolizes the beginning of the end. My father in law is just getting out of 2 years of deep depression after leaving the home he had for 30 years. They moved due to medical limitations the buyers would have never been aware of. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if many in that situation turn around and sabotage what they know they need to do.
To boot, the condo they were moving to was being sold by an elderly woman who had to move into an assisted living home. And man, was she a shark! Got top dollar.
Another thought, $800k might look wealthy from your perspective but unless they’re moving in with family, a stint in an assisted living facility could see that it’s gone before they are!
I agree with Upstater’s comments about how hard it is for people to sell a home they’ve come to love for many years. That said, for the buyer to have to fork over extra dollars because “they might need it for nursing home care” or “they put XYZ in and want to recoup their investment” or (my favorite) “they don’t want to bring a check to closing”… all those reasons are immaterial.
The price of most things is dependent on what the market will pay, not what sellers need to make it worth their while. Meanwhile the equity continues to evaporate as people insist upon gettting “their price.”
I don’t have $800K for a Nursing Facility for myself and I’m supposed to provide it for someone else ?
Only if it has granite countertops.
Aren’t bed pans stainless steal?
“Stainless Steal” — what spelling error ‘iron’-y. Love it!
You’d better watch out; the Grammar Police are lurking around here somewhere!
For the buyer to have to fork over extra dollars because “they might need it for nursing home care” or “they put XYZ in and want to recoup their investment” or (my favorite) “they don’t want to bring a check to closing”… all those reasons are immaterial.
Exactly but immaterial to the buyer…. its really never the buyer’s business why the seller “needs” the money which is why they can keep looking. Negotiations are about coming to an agreement. Pressure only works when people are desperate or really want to move badly.
From anecdotal local stuff I think lots of deals fall through simply because the buyers and sellers timing are not a match. IE I hear lots of pet issues….including the couple that suggested I could go put my kids in a hotel so that they wouldn’t have to put their 3 dogs in a kennel….yeah we were all warm and fuzzy about jumping through hoops for them…NOT) You see they assumed we HAD to move and treated us accordingly. But sometimes the people you are bidding against are the present owners. Sometimes the option for them to stay in their home is just as strong as going. I know the home these people ended up in. First of all they paid full asking price and the home has not had any updates in some time which means they’ll be shelling out more real soon. Well, at least they avoided the doggie separation anxiety so it’s all worth it.
Usually, you can accept on offer with a contingency, but you reserve the right to continue to market the home. If another offer comes along, you give the contingent buyer notice to close, and if they fail to close you bounce them out of the contract and then sell to the second buyer.
In other words, this elderly couple should have accepted the offer. They basically had little to lose.
“The greed astounds me.”
Doesn’t surprise me at all. I live in the home I grew up in, with many of the first-generation neighbors still here. I have talked with many of them when they’ve finally put their homes on the market. There’s two things middle-class seniors obsess over, guys:
1. Inheritance. They don’t want to spend any money on themselves, and they want to get as much for their home as possible so they have money to leave to their kids and grandkids. That is THE priority for all my elderly neighbors. Frankly, it drives me nuts. Most of them hardly see their kids/grandkids, and they’ve made a lifestyle of doing without to make sure those kids inherit money.
And I’ve seen them lie about disclosable issues with their homes because they _do not_ want to have reduce the asking price of their home. They don’t see it as cheating the prospective buyer as much as they see it taking money out of their grandkids’ bank accounts.
2. They’re scared they’re gonna need the money for long-term care.
On the one hand, they worry about this. On the other hand, these folks usually are pretty canny at working with lawyers to find ways to shelter their assets so the nursing homes can’t get at them. But it’s still an issue.
And I should note: these seniors’ kids and grandkids are definitely on the seniors’ side when it comes to getting max value for their home, because they see that money as their rightful do. So you can’t just point the finger at that generation. Look at your own.
Also, some are just emotionally tied to their places and really don’t want to leave even though they say they do and act like they do.
Riding the Trolley home from the Padres game yesterday, my Fiancee and I engaged a pair of constuction workers who mentioned they are working in several of the Downtown condo developments installing fire sprinklers. An older couple in the adjacent seats asked if he thought it was a good time to buy. The construction workers emphatically stated “Heck no! This is the worst time to buy. Lady, the places we’re about to finish are vacant. Nobody is buying. Nobody.” She seemed SHOCKED and retorted with “But San Diego Real Estate always goes back up, I’m not worried.” To which the older construction worked responded “I am, why do think I am on the trolley? I sold my F-250 3 months ago.”
The Husband of the couple feeling the tension rise quickly changed the subject to how bad the Padres are performing. In my mind I was thinking “not as bad as the Downtown condo market.”
gotta love construction workers, they don’t mince words for politeness sake.
I have 2 brothers in the trades in SD. Work has been intermittent.
My wife and I are looking at a few things just to get a feel for the market here in Southwestern suburban Portland, Or. We moved here last year and are renting. Went to a house where the agent was open to talk about the market. Later we’ve exchanged e-mails as I’ve asked some questions. I’m posting the exchange both to solicit comments as well as fishing for answers since she didn’t really give me the ones I was looking for:
From me:
=======================================
Thanks for the information. I’ve got a few questions:
- Where are statistics about the types of RE loans that have been written in the Portland area between 2004 and now? What was the percentage of exotic loans / ARMs? What percentage are due for reset over the next year / two years? How many were no doc/stated income?
- Historically, one measure of housing price is 100-150 times monthly rental. Before 2002-2003, was that a good rule of thumb around here? If not what was it 4 or 5 years ago? Is there a good source for rental rates/house prices from say 5 and 10 years ago?
- Another back of the envelope method would be to take the price of a house from a period of a ‘normal’ market – say 1997-1999, add in the rates of inflation and wage increase with maybe a slight premium attached for desireability of the area. For instance the house on Osage sold in 1997 for $185K. Assuming an inflation rate of 4% (too high by standards of the last 10 years) that house should be worth ~275K today. If we use job wage gains, I know since the bubble burst 6 years ago in my industry, wage growth has been very close to nil.
- Linda and I have sterling credit built up over years. When will a good credit history be worth a significant premium to a lender again? I want to buy when they aren’t giving money away to anyone who can fog a mirror. Having worked in RE for a couple of decades, I’m sure you understand the lessening of standards over the last 5 years. That isn’t sustainable is it?
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Their response:
===========================
Hi: These are good questions for the lenders you speak with, especially the stats of types of loans written. The 4% increase and putting a value of under 300 on XXXX is not this market. I would say that is not a valid way to price properties. Knowing what homes are selling for in the last 3 to 6 months is what you will need to judge by.
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My response:
==========================
>> I would say that is not a valid way to price properties.
Do you believe it ever was? You have been around awhile, do you remember such valuations? I’ve learned about these methods from people who have invested in RE for many years so I assume they hold some historical accuracy. If they no longer hold true, I am wondering why they don’t or shouldn’t hold true? Please don’t take these as badgering questions, just wanting to know the kind of market we’ve moved into.
>> Knowing what homes are selling for in the last 3 to 6 months is what you will need to judge by.
If we have just been through a period of the loosest money that anyone can remember (I assume you would agree with me), does that really make sense? What happens when lending standards go back to their historic norms? If they never do, are such lending practices sustainable in the long term? The metrics on which the mortgage lending business sustained itself until recently were there for a reason – they gave the average joe with a good job and a history of taking fiscal responsibility the ability to own a home while allowing a cushion for accounting for the unforeseen – lost job, big unforeseen expense, new kid(s), etc. It seems to me the margin of error is completely gone. It is apparent even to me that there are people taking out loans now who will not be able to sustain their obligations over the long term. Why shouldn’t we wait for these people to HAVE to sell before buying?
Sorry to ramble. These are the things that keep going through my mind every time I try to justify paying the prices in this market. We probably should get pre-approved and talk to the finance people about it as you say.
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Besides the obvious realtor-speak, the disconnect is obvious. You are talking about “value,” the agent is talking “price.” I am not from Portland, but 150 times rent is historically “fair value” in the U.S. If you can get something for less, great. And it’s fine to pay more, but if you go beyond 200 times you are going to get hurt, unless you truly plan to spend 30 years in the house.
That is the old-fashioned rule of thumb. The industry will tell you it is “different this time,” just as Wall Street said it was “different” in ‘99. Right.
you are dealing with an ignorant realtor.as far as loans go subprime borrowers are paying a premium now,of 2-6 %,depending.give it two years for the standards to change
Now, this may have been covered BUT what is the best tactic to lowball?
Im new to the whole real estate thing so…I need to know the best , most efficient way to low ball the inventory here in south orange county. Do I need a realtor? How much do I low ball, ie what %?
Many colleagues have mentioned that since I am not in the market to buy(just yet) that I need to do my part and get the lowball rolling. Thats the only way to break the mentality and I agree that it begins at the open house w/ official lowball bids. I just want to do my part until the real day comes….
see ya
JF
Lowballing generally works when sellers are panicking. We are not there yet. I wouldn’t waste my time.
Agreed. It’s way too early. We’ve got at least one year (and probably two or three) for this tactic’s effectiveness to be at its peak.
Agreed. Low balling will only work after the news that 1099’s are being written on forgiven mortgage debt. I really doubt that the MSM will catch on to that until Christmas 2007; by then we bloggers will be bored with that fact. Wait until *at least* 2008.
Do look at inventory. For example, my prefered market just went to 11 months of inventory from 4 to 5. Ok, I took:
Inventory/July sales. Yes, that’s oversimplified. But there is no reason to do Inventory/(July sales+June sales+may sales+…) when sales *crashed* 50% in July. Since we all know the market is continuing to slow… wait. Once inventory gets above a year in a majority of your local markets and the press is asking why homes aren’t selling… Then you can lowball.
If you don’t want to wait until 2008… Wait at least six months and then ask the same question on this blog. We’ll keep you informed.
Neil
I can’t speak on Orange County because I don’t live there. Here in Florida, some builders are accepting 1/3 off asking to move inventory. It’s not unheard of for a builder to accept $150k off a new spec home listed at $450. I agree with the other post that owners aren’t accepting many lowballs yet because they aren’t panicking. Yet.
This is interesting because the Jax market - though very bubbly - is not as overvalued as many other places in Fla. It may be an indication that some builders, etc. in Jax are not quite to the “I’m scr**ed” stage yet and so are proactive and willing to take strong action to keep their affairs in order - whereas others in more southerly locales are more likely renewing their passports and checking the flight schedules to Buenos Aires or Medellin.
My favorite low ball tactic was posted here.
Find 5 houses that you could buy and are interested in buying. At this point in the cycle save for favorite for last.
Write an offer for the first house with the note that you are a motivated and qualified buyer with 5 houses that you are choosing from. The offer expires in 24 hours and requires a written response.
Keep moving down the list, at this point in the game you may have a longer list.
Good luck and keep us updated on the reactions.
I’ve often wondered about this tactic:
Find two parties both willing to purchase a property (for investment purposes). The first comes in and makes a SUPER lowball offer: 30% off or so. The second comes in a week later pretending not to know the first, at 15-20% under knowing the seller has been prepared for the shock.
Start by doing research now on sales prices (not just listing, because anyone can ask anything they want for their POS.) Start tracking the prices down till you feel you are somewhat close, so you don’t waste a bunch of time. I think the lowballing will be more effective when it is in line with where the market is going. Otherwise, you are just hoping for a longshot, because let’s face it, the seller can always lower their price.
Lowball offers are much more likely to be accepted if the property has been on the market a good long time. However, doesn’t sound like you actually want an offer accepted. If you really want to play that game, put in offers below what you think the seller will accept - definitely at least 15% below asking. Then you can imagine the seller kicking themselves several months down the line when their asking has dropped below your lowball offer.
Personally, I wouldn’t put offers on anything, lowball or otherwise, until I was ready to buy.
When I plan to start looking - this time next year - my Pet Lowball Theory is:
find the price the property sold for in 1998/99/2000. Zillow has some data on properties sold after about 1995 (IIRC).If its not on Zillow, then the local County office will have sales figures as Property Tax is calculated on last sale data.
Add 5% appreciation per year from the 98/99/00 price.
If they’ve ‘improved’ the property, find out how much it actually cost (ie receipts, not just ‘oh, thousands…’), and how many years they’ve been in place. Knock off, say, 10% per year due to depreciation. Bear in mind that things like a new roof, copper plumbing, etc.. are upkeep, not improvements. Granite countertops are definately ‘improvements’, not upkeep!
Make an offer based on the above numbers.
As many have pointed out, sellers may not be desperate enough, yet, to think that your offer is anything less than insulting. Be patient, give them a contact number, tell them that you are looking at a number of houses. If, in a couple of months, they haven’t sold, then they may agree that 5% per annum appreciation is a lot better than nothing.
That’s what I intend to do - I don’t mind people making a little on thier houses, it seems only fair. But if anyone thinks I’ll pay more than 30% (compound) appreciation for a house they bought 5 years ago, then I guess we’ll not be giving each other contracts in the near future.
Agreed Im going to use your method.
Good to see others are using some great ideas.
Thanks all
This is probably no big deal to most of you, but it’s very unusual for my area (Santa Barbara, CA).
Last night, had a “door-to-door realtor” come to my door, trying to peddle this $1.1 million place.
She seemed crushed when I explained that I haven’t wanted (or even able) to buy anything in town since at least 2002, and was in no hurry to buy because the rent/own ratios made no sense anymore. (E.g. you can rent an identical place to the one above for around $2500)
The funniest/scariest part was the shocked look on her face when she asked if I knew anyone else, and I explained that my friends and co-workers couldn’t consider anything over $500K (which is being *extremely* generous, more like 350-400K).
I mean seriously, if they are depressed that successful 30-somethings are only willing to pay $500K, they have a world of hurt coming. Burn baby, burn.
Note to Ben: this post is one for the history books. Real estate agents going door to door peddling $1 million houses!!!!
Astounding.
Holy moly. Okay. Whew. Had to catch my breath there because I was expecting something, well, million dollar ish, not recycled 70’s trilevel. Try $ 249,900 around my area….Livonia Mi, maybe $299,900 ( the nicest city in Michigan, so some say…). That’s just plain funny….
I can see Marsha & Greg in the second floor bedroom.
I always thought those two had something going on.
You should be looking into housing subsidy I heard on TV the other night from either the city or county- that is, if your household income is less than $160,000.00/yr. Nope, that’s not a typo. This state is so f…up!
BTW, I am in Vegas this weekend and decided to visit the Summerlin area for a price check. Stopped by an open house. It’s 1932 sf and has lot of about 5000sf. Asking price? An unsane amount of $375,000.00 in the hot desert of Nevada. I would not even pay $200,000.00.
yup, Santa Barbara (city) was looking to use the last large lot in town for at least partial ‘affordable housing’. In this case, yes, under $160k /year. GEEZZZ. I’m in 6 digits, and didn’t know I qual’d for food stamps!! whooohooo!.
just goes to show how out of whack things are… in Santa Barbara, you public servants like firefighters, cops, teachers and I guess now, doctors.. need a place to live. I know many that commute from Santa Maria and Ventura (both about an hour’s drive one way) to work in Santa Barbara. Thing is, the same $1.1 mil house in Santa Barbara would probably go for $800K in Ventura or $600K in Santa Maria.
I read that in the Independent, but when you actually go to the Santa Barbara city website and look at the Affordable Housing form, the numbers aren’t that high. The upper limit is $92K for a single person, $105K for 2 people, 118, 131, 142, and 152 for 3, 4, 5, or 6 people, respectively.
Still absurd, but not as much as $160K for a couple, which is what the news was reporting.
Oh BTW, I looked this place up on zillow, here’s the sale history:
02/16/2005: $996,500
12/31/1998: $385,000
*chuckle*
Smacks of deperation to me. That explains the door to door sales tactic
Does that have an ocean view or something? That is NOT a million dollar house in my mind.
Oh hell no - about 3 miles from the ocean, half a block to the railroad tracks and 101 freeway. Elementary school down the street is 67% hispanic, etc. Picture makes it look nicer than it actually is.
The program Property Ladder ran one about a week ago. Two couples that bought a 1.1m 60’s/70’s ranch style there. Lotsa work, some infighting, etc. Sweating bullets over their 8k/mo payments. Got REAL lucky & found a GF that they unloaded it to (1.28 or 1.3m). Netted a whopping 35k between the 4 of them. About the last flippers to make money there for a while, I think.
Jack Smith wrote on August 17, 2006 7:14 AM:
“Young buyers standing around the water cooler may be linking real estate to the dot-com bubble but they forget one thing: why they call it real estate. It’s real. It ain’t made up by someone toolin’ around on an office razor scooter. The idea of the bottom dropping out the real estate market is fantasy. If that happens, we’re in a Depression. This is a breather. Look north to the LA area to see where prices are going. Up. Why? They don’t read the San Diego Union and MS. Hockmuth.”
Boy if I owned real estate right now this guy would be a candidate to buy as he must have flunked every math and economic class he ever had! Besides we are headed for a big resession. May be when he looses his job he will wake up………
I agree with the guy in one sense. Microsoft, for example, continues to make very “real” profits. Should anyone with a shread of sense have paid $75 a share six years ago? Hell no.
I’m glad to hear there are young’uns around water coolers figuring this thing out, though. It’s about time.
I did get 100 MSFT through my Ex-Financial Advisor. Shame on me. A house up the street in my North Orange County neighborhood was just reduced from $799k to $729k. A $70k drop!
I was elated until I realized it was less than a 10% reduction on an overimproved (new slate roof and total remodel) nice Craftsman house in a neighborhood that doesn’t warrant $800k prices.
“If that happens, we’re in a Depression.”
Yes, that’s right.
Thats probably what we are heading for.
That is EXACTLY what we are heading for.
Deflationary depression, mass unemployment, ethnic conflict, either more socialism and a bigger welfare state or the end of the state and and more freedom with anarchy (I hope).
Mark, it’s most likely going to be the former. Modern Americans want something for nothing. That’s socialism.
I’d bet money that’s the same Jack Smith of ZipRealty.
South Shore, Tampa Bay area. New developments look like ghost towns wilting in the heat and soaking under the summer thunderstorms. Recently I’ve been speaking to a some realtors, since I am trying to find another rental. But, I do have a firm price range and certain requirements. The realtors I’ve been speaking to are flat out telling me nothing is selling. They blame the insurance issue for much of the problem, but also the fact that, at least in this area, there is not much of a market for the types of developments that have been built, for example, KB and Lennar 3 and 4 bedroom homes with a foot of space in between, starting at $230,000 and on up to $500,000.00. The market was not researched. This particular area is geared toward a combination of retirees and retiree support service personnel, empty nesters, single and divorced folks who commute to work in Tampa, wealthier people looking for second waterfront homes for boating and fishing and low income farm and construction laborers. None of the above groups are interested in the type of housing that was built here, which was meant for boomers and middle to upper middle income families. The boomers aren’t coming, it’s like they gave a party and no one came. One realtor told me that a group of local agents got together early on to give the developers an idea of the type of housing that was appropriate for the area. They were blown off. Now the developers are begging the realtors to bring them buyers, but there aren’t any. Many realtors are getting into “property management”, to try to accomodate the flippers, many of whom are out of state, who need to rent because they can’t sell. In one development, rents will only cover one half of what the owners are paying in PITI and other expenses. I also got a call from a private seller who heard I was looking to rent and wanted to do a rent to own deal for a mobile home with a nice piece of land (there are still a number of mobile home properties in the area, since much of the area was rural until VERY recently). Not interested in a mobile, so I passed on the deal, but am now thinking of calling him back and apologizing for my rudeness, because I should have heard him out.
Palmetto, I would call him back and apologize for rudeness, but still pass on the mobile deal. In a year or two, you’ll be able to get a nice HOME ( house ) rent-to-own. I’ve been through that type of thing twice - once in Kalamazoo MI and once in New England the last time it went bust, in the 80’s. Nice homes-could be bought for pennies on the dollar, and if you had decent credit and wanted to rent-to-own, a lot of builders and homeowners loved you. It’ll happen again. I’m sure it’s already happening down there.
Thanks for your support, Silverback. I was thinking the same thing. The only thing that has me considering his deal is the fact that the rent I’d be paying is minimal compared to what most people want and if the piece of land is nice, that means the impact fees are paid for and utilities are in place. I was thinking about getting one of those nice old Florida houses people are willing to get rid of for $1.00 and have it moved onto the land. I had some friends who did that and it worked out rather well. I’ve never lived in a mobile home and living in Florida, have always been leery of them, but I’m thinking maybe I could sit out the bubble in the mobile. As much as I piss and moan on this blog about Florida, I still love this weary, used up, poor old state, it’s in my blood now like malaria and I’m not ready to give up on it. I suppose it’s like a bad dream I keep thinking I’ll wake up from to find the developments and “undocumented workers” gone and the orange groves back and the little old pink and whitewashed houses with the bougainvillea in the yards and the kids laughing and playing instead of cursing and comparing notes on all the ADD drugs they are taking. One of the local weekly rural papers had a story in it today about the Gibsonton area on Tampa Bay, back in the day when it had a white sandy beach on the bay and a dancing pavilion and geysers of fresh, pure artesian water that used to just spring up from the ground. Until the phosphate mining companies bought the land in the area. The executives of those companies are a bunch of first rate SOBs who don’t deserve to take up space on this planet, for what they’ve done to the environment of Florida, not to mention the exploding fertilizer they make. Oklahoma City has the phosphate companies to thank for the destruction of their Federal Building.
Well, I’d say that OKC was a result of white-supremacist terrorists (as opposed to Islamic-fascist terrorists). Other than that, it sounds like you’re an abused spouse who isn’t ready to accept divorce as an option. And like these abused spouses, you should get out, lose half, start getting your life back together, and you’ll be better off for it in the long run (20 years).
OKC was probably an inside job (John Doe #2, gov’t informants at Elohim City, bomb squads at Murrah the day before, etc.)
The bombing was revenge for the feds killing children at Waco.
Where would he go?
LOL, Sol, much as I hate to admit it, it is an apt analogy. Except, as kipper says, where would I go? I’ve thought about other places, many of the formerly local folks are going to the Carolinas and Tennessee. But the problem is that many of those who are long time transplanted Floridians originally from the Northeast and Midwest will find that those areas might be quite different from what they were used to in FLA, which in many ways has been more like a northern state in a subtropical locale.
I suggested previously leaving the US, but someone here said that the government wouldn’t allow that. I wonder what the smart money is doing?
I know just what you mean, Palmetto, I feel the same way about California. It is just not what it used to be except maybe here and there, in pockets, once in a while I get a glimpse of the old California and I think it is worth it still to raise my child here because he will remember it as I did since I have cushioned him from what is bad about it now. I’m sure our parents felt the same way about their chlildhood places.
Thanks, kipper. It is so difficult to leave a place one has grown to love, despite its faults, and that has a history of fond memories.
palmetto — my only comment would be that sitting on the sidelines in a trailer is a serious risk due the the hurricane factor. Trailers are NOT built to withstand the damage and if a Cat 4 or 5 hits while you’re waiting to buy, well, kiss that trailer and all your stuff (and maybe you) goodbye.
Very true, fiat and that’s my major consideration about the deal. Florida still has mobiles dotted all over the state and most people do get out and go to a shelter or whatever when the hurricanes bear down, but the aftermath is a mess. A mobile in Florida is just asking for trouble, really. It was the land part that was tempting.
“None of the above groups are interested in the type of housing that was built here, which was meant for boomers and middle to upper middle income families. The boomers aren’t coming, ”
Exactly, bingo, hit the nail on the head.
The cheap dough fueled it, but it was this mentality that really started it — THE BOOMERS — The idea that boomers have shaped our economy for the last few decades and will continue to do so until we’ve all died. The flawed assumption that boomers are wealthy as hell and we all want to retire and live in Florida. The speculators all thought they hit on such a brilliant idea, but obviously they didn’t do their research. It’s this same “brilliant idea” that makes some stock investors think they’re going to hit a homerun with Toll Brothers. Such a simple concept, but so simply …. wrong.
“If this is indeed a buyer’s market why are buyers standing on the sidewalks anxiously hoping for a fire sale? Were investors passive about driving up prices in the first place? No, they were sharks who changed the market for everyone by marching up to the front doors of homes that weren’t even for sale and throwing cash around.”
“So stop being passive. Be a shark. It’s a buyer’s market. If this bubble is going to burst, let us bring out the needles.”
Gosh, I’m getting all misty-eyed. OK everyone, let’s all go out and lowball one for the Gipper!
I send craigslist sellers lots of encouraging emails “This isn’t 2005, cut the price in half” and “I see you lowered the price on this new rental property, are you taking a loss yet?”
Lets all not go out and not offer any offers tomorrow, or next week or next month.
Okay, then I will lowball. I will go to the front door of an ocean view 4 bedroom 2000 square foot Palos Verdes Estates home on Saturday and offer $250,000!
On second thought, I prefer renting…
Check out this scary Craigslist ad from Davis, CA (Sac Area)
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/rfs/196043506.html
You mean for only an extra GRAND A MONTH, you’ll let me split the 10% appreciation? Wow, that sounds gr — Heyyyyyyy. What if it goes DOWN 10% in price? The ad should read, “I’m currently taking a bath in the real estate market. Anyone want to join me in the tub?”
And it’s only just begun, really…
That guy is smoking CRACK!
There is no greater fool than this guy.
uh, I thought Sacto was already down YOY.
So, for $3k per month, you get to share a full bath with a stranger? Where do I sign up?? -
Bubblebath as an icebreaker?
I am happy to report that things are quite bubbly in the Kingdom of Denmark as they are coming off 40% gains in 2005 in the affluent suburbs north of Copenhagen as they are soaking up low interest rate, interest only loans that only recently became available. This is not off low prices like in Estonia or other emerging areas of eastern Europe, but starting from a base comparable to the Boston area.
In the Business section last weekend of a leading daily they had an article about how you can afford to buy more house if you give up your car. (Cars are very expensive with 200% tax.) According to the calculation you could afford ~$350k more house based on operating and financing a basic car (which is going to run at least $70k). Instead you could plow this money into buying a house with interest only loan at some ridiculously low interest rates.
What a lifestyle. You can live in a $800k house and take the bus and bicycle everywhere while every penny you earn goes into paying interest on your house and living expenses. The Business journalist thought that this was a brilliant idea.
(Cars are very expensive with 200% tax.)
Huh? What? Holy Crap! You mean if a car costs “X”, the actual cost is “3X”??? How has the government of Denmark not suffered a revolution?
When I was on a package tour in early 2001, I spent a lot of time talking with a guy from Singapore.
He told me his car (a Rover-badged Honda Accord) had cost him 65K Singapore dollars, or about $35K US at the time.
Plus he had to get a (transferable between cars) ownership permit, which cost another $25K Singapore for 10 years.
Then you would start talking about road registration, insurance etc.
I worked out he was paying about 3 times per year as much as I would for the same car if you assume each car was replaced after 5 years, and I know (even allowing for exchange rates) that running a car is cheaper in the US than for me in Australia.
A Honda Accord would run $60-$70k in Denmark.
We need a revolution everywhere. The welfare state will get bigger and bigger until we kill it.
You’re so funny.
Well, Denmark has the lowest “wholesale” prices for new cars. So a savvy German could go up to Denmark and buy the car on export plates an import it to Germany and pay their 17% VAT or whatever it is.
In Denmark I think the car tax rate is 170% but then you pay 25% VAT on top of the entire bill. So a base (1.4 or 1.6 liter) VW Golf is going to run like $50k.
Norway and Finland also have heavy car taxes, although not as bad. Sweden does not (apart from the 25% VAT) because they have a significant car industry.
Any chance of revolution disappeared with the global warming hysteria since now it’s definitely a good deed to tax an energy user to death. Denmark also leads the world with “green tax surcharges” on energy consumption.
That’s a hefty tax, but it does it’s purpose which is to decrease the amount of cars on the road. I personally think big cities such as New York, Chicago and Boston which have great public transporation systems should start implementing high taxes on cars so as to encourage public transporation use. There is really no reason to have a car in one of those cities if you live and work there. I have family and friends that will drive their cars rather than take the bus to go to a someone’s house that is maybe 20 blocks away. It’s crazy.
I live in Lodi, CA. Central Valley. Stockton, which is 9 miles north just made the top ten foreclosure list.
Zero surprise here. Stockton has always been “the butthole of California” and always will. (Lodi’s a hemmorhoid). It’s toast, period. Rows and rows of clone Mc Mansions loaded with folks who never should’ve borrowed the kind of money they did the way they did to get into them.
The “Bay area migration” argument is ashes too.
Resetting ARMS, IO’s, $3+ gas, helocked out…What’s sad is these crapbox neighborhoods are going to turn into very scary section eight slums over time. Crime rate’s through the roof in Stockton already. Gangs, killings, low median income. Talk about “the perfect storm”. The whole valley from Sac to Bakersfield is going to cook.
Price reduction free-fall ahead.
DOC
I lived in Palmdale during the last bust. Within months… a nice, clean, gated community turned into a prison. Pit bulls, drive through drug deals and section 8 neighbors filled these vacant homes. It was ugly, and sad. Our home went from 136000 to 57,000. It is now valued at 350,000!!! Go figure…
Lodi is “butthole” of California?
Nah. If I were to give an enema to the state, I’d stick it in Bakersfield or Pelosi.
It is really amazing how many eighteen wheelers there are on the 99 these days, at all hours too.
There are about 10,000 approved tract lots yet to be built on in Lancaster, CA. This is a bust and boom town. Prices appreciated from $80,000 in 2000 to about $350-$400K today - in a place where crime is a problem and image is low. But can you say OVERSUPPLY?? Prepare for the worse.
It is beyond crazy that Lancaster could rise so high. That alone should convince people how bad the crash will be. A home in Lancaster costs the same as a nice townhouse in Newport Beach did five or six years ago. Nuts.
We often hear realtors and industry mouthpieces dismissing the last downturn in Los Angeles around 1991 as purely a function of massive aerospace layoffs.
Well, lately I’ve been hearing a lot about layoffs in the aerospace sector. Just the other day Boeing anounced they’re closing their C-17 plant in Long Beach.
The Long Beach plant employs about 5,500 workers and is the city’s largest civilian employer. The plant also support a massive network of smaller suppliers and machineshops in the area.
I’ve heard rumours from my coworkers (We’re partially an aerospace company) that Raytheon may also anounce mass layoffs in the near fututre.
Some of our expected contracts with aerospace players have also been drying up, funding not approved etc.
But, thank god it’s different this time!
Maybe I should have read the previous topic before posting this
Don’t forget that Boeing just announced about 3 weeks ago that they’ll be shutting down their facility in Anaheim (55/91) over the next 18-24 months. Consolidating it into the Huntington Beach plant. The jobs are mostly supposed to move. Of course, for those 85-90 % that are close to the Anaheim plant or are north/east of it, commute times just added 1+ hours. OCR story had a couple already saying no way.
From JTS $500K reductions:
08/18/2006
Million Dollar Homes at Liquidation Pricing at The Estates at Lincoln Crossing
“All remaining homes must be sold, period,” said Ray Melville of The Advantage Group, JTS Communities Sales and Marketing company. “This is tremendous bottom-line pricing, something homebuyers haven’t seen yet. JTS recognizes this is a true buyer’s market, and at these prices buyers are getting what they are demanding – tremendous value in an upscale, move-up community.”
There are homes valued up to one million dollars but liquidation pricing starts in the low $500,000’s.
The Estates at Lincoln Crossing offers luxurious,
upscale homes, but still maintains the small town feel of Lincoln. The community features large executive designs, loaded with upgrades.
“Homebuyers considering a move-up home must visit
now. They will see first hand the great architecture and craftsmanship JTS Communities has been recognized for,” continued. “Homebuyers should not delay. This is a very rare, limited opportunity that will quickly become a scarce commodity.”
The Lincoln Crossing neighborhood offers homebuyers nearby championship golf courses, shopping, and easy freeway access to Highway 65 and Interstate 80. All of these amenities have been incorporated into a tranquil hometown feeling and setting.
Homebuyers visiting The Estates can tour the recently completed and lavishly decorated model home. In addition, visitors are encouraged to visit a completed inventory home, which are ready for immediate occupancy.
With liquidation pricing being offered on most homes, buyers should be prepared to sit down and speak to a new home professional to understand the value being offered at The Estates at Lincoln Crossing.
Interested homebuyers should visit the JTS Communities model and sales office at Lincoln Crossing. Take Highway 65 to Ferrari Ranch Road, go west, and then turn left on Caledon Circle to the model home.
For more information logon to:
http://www.jtscommunities.com or call (916) 484-5229
This JTS developement in Lincoln has 168 homes. Only 2 sold to owner occupants. About 116 sold to SF/Bay Area Flippers. That 50 left to sell by JTS at this “blowout” gig. Brutal. JTS waited until all the Flippers finished closing escrow (a few smart ones cancelled). Then JTS went in and lowered prices $200,000. Very stealth marketing. Check out Max’s expose on July 17th at Sac Real Stats http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2006/07/report-on-estates-at-lincoln-crossing.html At that time, 118 homes had closed escrow to 116 Flippers. The place resembled something out of the Twilight Zone. Hundreds of houses sold, all the lawns mowed, but no occupants. A true Ghost Town. And any new buyers (aka “suckers” had no clue to the problem, because the builder prevented flippers from putting up resale signs.) Very crafty. 118 Flippers now upside down to over $200,000 per home by JTS. The builders motto? “Working together to achieve excellence”! What a joke these criminals are pulling. Their motto should be “Working together to screw you over like you’ve never been screwed over before.” It will be ugly. Several homes already headed into default on $600,000 mortgages.
John,
That was an AMAZING report on the Sac blog. Wow! I’ve made comments on the ghost town/ghost condo phenomenom, but had no idea of the mechanics behind some of them. This Lincoln/JTS project is absolutely astounding. No resale signs allowed on the lawns? No cars? Impeccable lawns? But no people??? And how many times is this being duplicated in Ca, as well as across the country.
I shudder to think…
BayQT~
Sorry, John but no tears for the 116 flippers. Remember, they don’t give the builder some of their profits when they flip. It’s pretty much everyone for themselves. Life’s a bitch, maybe if they’d spent a little time checking things out first.
Traffic Jams aren’t tranquill!m Lincoln is a mess at commute times and on the weekends. It’s not a small town anymore!
What a bunch of BS!
Had a conersation with an older guy 74yrs old while getting my hair cut and ending up talking about RE. He has been in his current house for 14 years and one rental for 9 years. He charges $1850.00 for the rental which is paid for. So I said wouldn’t it be nice if he got $3k a month for the rental. He said nobody would pay that in this area, so I had to ask, who could afford to buy if the monthly was 3000, plus taxes etc… he said “WOW” I didn’t realize it got that expensive to own, how are people doing it. I explained and he said people are just plain stupid and was at a loss as to why young people do this. I said it supported the economy after the .com craze etc… everybody was too happy making and spending money, a year later somethings wrong and now everybody’s starting to pay attention.
He said thats America for ya.
This one is funny:
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/196261617.html
txchick
30K for used furniture! Have you ever tried to sell used furniture? It is worth almost nothing.
House + Couches + Curtains + Dining Table & Chairs + Barstools + Washer & Dryer + Refrigerator + Entertainment Center
They are literally giving away a store!
Don’t the curtains go WITH the house?
That’s basically the same decision process I go through when buying a meal at Arby’s.
I didn’t even know Arby’s had curtains in them.
How much rent can you get on something like that? At $239k it might even be close to cash flow positive with 20% down…
Yeah, I always find it really useful when people post photos of thier applicances….because I would have no idea of what the place was like without furniture in it..;-)
I’ve noticed the same high standards of photography over here in L.A. Yes, please waste a picture on ZipRealty of a palm tree.
Holy $uck, you know what? This is Los Angeles! Who’d have thought that there were so many palm trees here?
Don’t waste my time with ‘useful’ photos showing me the layout of the living room, or the kitchen, or the back yard!
No! As a potential buyer of this property, I demand pictures of palm trees!
Even better, take photos of the flowers in the garden. Under no circumstances should you take photos of anything that might be remotely helpful!
Sorry, slightly off topic. But if I see another blurry photo of someone’s bouganvilla in the photo section of Zip, I think I’ll hurl.
Yeah, I always find it really useful when people post photos of thier applicances….because I would have no idea of what the place was like without furniture in it..;-)
I’ve noticed the same high standards of photography over here in L.A. Yes, please waste a picture on ZipRealty of a palm tree.
Holy $uck, you know what? This is Los Angeles! Don’t waste my time with ‘useful’ photos showing me the layout of the living room, or the kitchen, or the back yard! No! I demand pictures of palm trees! Even better, take photos of the flowers in the garden. Under no circumsatances should you take photos of anything that might be remoltely helpful!
A friend told me a story, he was waiting for his car and two valet’s, in their earlt 20’s, were talking about not being able to rent their homes (This is in the Phoenix area). He asked them how many homes they owned. One replied three, the other said he owned four. He asked them how they were able to buy that many homes working as valet’s. They stated their mortgages were based on stated income, no verification. They both said they greatly exagerated their incomes. He asked what they were going to do about not being able to rent their homes. They said they were just going to give them back to the banks. He said they were as casual about it as returning a pair of pants to Wal-Mart.
I love it. Just like the guy from the N. Virginia Builders’ Association, quoted in Businessweek last fall, who went on a business lunch and had the waiter sheepishly interrupt to ask, “I have four investment properties, what should I do?”
This stuff is classic. I love this blog.
They likely have no other assets. What are the banks going to do to them? I have this feeling that there are many, many people that are going to do this without batting an eye. Maybe a few well publicized fraud prosecutions and convictions are needed.
If the financial shortfall was a result from fraud, let’s say for example, lying on your loan application, then you CANNOT declare Ch 7 bankruptcy and discharge your debts!
I see emigration to Mexico in their future.
Yeah? Try doing that after they “chip” the passports starting this December!
yup, but don’t forget the 1099’s from the taxman.
Costa Mesa, CA: lots of open houses and noticably more for sale signs. Also, I noticed a lot more “For Rent” signs out this weekend. Perhaps it is just the time in the year when rentals increase in availability. Or could it be move aways and flippers trying to stem the bleeding? The sign spinners are out in force as well. Listing prices are holding and listings on craigslist with reductions are still few.
Funny head line in the NY Times RE section
“Let’s Make A Deal.
As the residential market softens, buyers are daring to offer less than the asking price, and sellers are finding that they have to be open to negotiation.”
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/realestate/index.html
Wow! It’s not 2005 any more and buyers are “DARING” to bid below the asking price. ha ha ha ha ha ha
Way to shill for the RE industry with your timely observations.
Edhopper — that article was unintentionally funny on so many levels I don’t know where to begin. It was, for all practical purposes, written by Bellmarc, with the implicit warning to buyers not to “annoy” sellers with low bids.
Even better was the article on Bensonhurst — median prices have doubled since 2000.
Available on your newsstands tomorrow.
Taditionally, sellers asked for more than they expected to get and buyers started 10% below asking. A return to the negotiating process should not be upsetting to sellers. Just because their friend down the street was smart enough to cash out before the bubble popped, doesn’t mean their entitled to the same. Theirs an entitlement additude among sellers, that going to drive some of them to BK.
Long Island, NY: Lot’s of open houses today. I drove by several, and there wasn’t activity at any of them. I came across two “For Sale” signs with big red “Bank Owned” banners on them. I’ve never seen this before!
I was perusing Rentclix thinking I’d look for a house closer to work and finally move out of my apartment (it’s so pleasant here at this complex that I just haven’t felt the need to leave, but it would be nice to lose the 35 minute commute on I-10 every morning). I found a quaint looking older brick house in the Willo neighborhood of Phoenix, which is the historic section very close to downtown. I went over last night for a “drive by,” and was astounded by the number of houses for sale in the area—every street had at least 3 signs out. The place I was interested in rents for $1200/mo—NOTHING in the area was for sale under $400K, which is more than a slight disconnect from reality. These are 1000-1300 sf houses, mostly built in the thirties and forties. The neighborhood legitimately commands a premium because of its location and historic “flavor,” but these sellers are on crack. There’s nothing THAT special about any of it. Just for fun I stopped in front of a few places to pick up flyers. One woman was just pulling into her driveway as I was taking a flyer from the “tube” in front of her house. She slammed on her brakes, jumped out of the SUV and yelled “this is a VERY NICE HOUSE!!!” Yeah, well so are the three across the street and the five on the next block. I may have made her day just by taking her flyer—I noticed there were still plenty left.
One thing to keep in mind:
For every flipper who is getting roasted, there is one who made an obscene amount of $$ last few years and is out of the game at this point. It’s the amateurs who came chased the hot money who are getting killed, along with some stubborn/stupid “proffessionals.”
My point is, there is ALOT of money that has been made already sitting on the sidelines and some of that $$ will tickle down into the economy, POSSIBLY cushioning the blow.
Baloney. No money was “made” in this thing. It’s been a Ponzi scheme for the last four year. “Flippers,” by definition, are amatuers - they see something that is hot and run after it. That is a prescription for disaster. I would bet four out of five “flippers” who realized a gain re-invested and are toast.
The smart money buys low - when no one else will dare, and sells into popular euphoria. That is what the pros do. This thing, as all bubbles do, has run far longer than any thinking person deems possible. No thinking investor would have got in even two years ago - the risk was too great.
There is no one “waiting on the sidelines, to cushion the blow.” It will be years before this thing shakes out completely. A relative handful of very lucky, amatuer real estate speculators are not going to bail out the American economy.
Sounds like you have it all figured out professor.
“No money was made in this thing” - hmmm, wonder where that $700K come from sitting in my bank account…
Some money was made, congrats if some of it made it’s way to you.
But let’s put it this way:
Some of the earned money went to mortgage brokers, title company, etc. So let’s say that $700K in your bank account represents $800K of actual appreciation. That $100K was not saved, as evidenced by the negative US savings rate. Now out there someone owes $800K (or more) to buy your properties.
$700K in cash.
$800K in debt.
Do you see the problem?
This isn’t about you, who I will take your word to be fine. Or me, who is also fine.
It’s about Valets and Waitresses buying properties on debt and an industry living off that debt.
The furniture has been burnt, and the forecast is for more cold tomorrow.
Congradulations to you.
But most flippers reinvested. For ever flipper like you who made money, 4 or 5 are going to BK.
Most didn’t save. You’re in great shape.
Now what about the 20% of US homes that are only making the minimum payment on their option ARM? You cannot possibly think there are enough flippers out there with cash hordes to save that huge portion of the population?
Invest wisely. This is going to get ugly.
Transaction costs spur the economy. “Churning Stocks” seemingly gave way to “Turning R/E”, without lubricating the clients. Some savings here -increased productivity!
The sheep came, they bought, they financed, they refinanced, and they are now toast. They did, however, grant great transaction revenue to the economy. Gee, thanks!! -
PS - now go fetch your shoe box biatch…Daddy needs a shine.
Daddy needs an English class….or maybe just a little class, period.
And a refresher course in movie triva.
The correct Pesci quote from Goodfellas is:
“Now go home and get your f*cking shine box.”
I would bet my bottom dollar he didn’t make $700k.
PMS?
Hey douchebag, go troll somewhere else.
How do yo know? We assume most flippers were stupid, but maybe some were brilliant.
No Friggin’ chance.
Most flippers are 1031 addicts — most of them still have lots of skin in the game. With the burn they’re about to get, not even SPF 45 will help.
Count on it.
The For Sale sign is now the official flower of the Hamptons.
The number of proprties on the market has grown immensely and the number is likely to become substantially larger after renters clear out after Labor Day and sellers who couldn’t sell and rented out make a second pass at the sales market.
At cocktail parties, last year’s bragging abour real estate has all but disappeared. And the long. long winter is just around the corner.
The very top of the market has not been affected yet. But the layers below, aka “Wanabee World” are in very bad shape.
Report from Long Beach, California, which is located in bubbleland LA County. It seems as if a neutron Bomb irradiated the entire run-down district north of the central city: Streets. shops, and apts virtually empty of walkers/strollers.
The main LB “fun” zone is the area south of Ocean blvd with Harborwalk,Pike amusement shops/eateries, Harbor cruises, Shorelne village, plus Pine ave along a few blocks north of Ocean.
All areas completely devoid of heavy foot/auto traffic,: this on august 19 on a gorgeous 80% summer saturday afternoon. A very few popular restaurants were packed but most eateries slow.
Shoreline village would normally be elbow-to-elbow in past seasons but today absolutely devoid of heavy traffic. Only the yard house/Tequila jacks were doing volume business, and the Landmark Parkers lighthouse Restaurant was lighter than normal.
The Harbor cruises had a bit of activity, though the Restored mississippi riverboat was lying inactive. Boat ticket sellers practically begging for passengers to sign up.
Aquarium of Pacific had a very small line.
There were very few out-of-town/out-of-state tourists.
This has to be an indication of a real consumer slowdown ocurring in the southland(Scal) economy: Have been through dwtn LB Harbor shoreline areas in past years and it would always be jam-packed: the startling light crowds today must be a harbinger for an uncoming nasty economic slowdown. Checked around and there were no major events anywhere in LB which might have drawn off dwtn traffic.
The old excuse thAT “EVERYONE IS AWAY ON VACATION” dosen’t fly either: most of the local LB residents in the central/west portions of city are economically disadvantaged, and I just came back from a trip to the northern Cal mountain resort areas and things were slow there as well.
I noticed the same lack of money in Atlantic city two weeks ago. Two years ago, I had to stand in line to wait for a slot machine. Rows and rows of empty seats. And this was the Friday/Saturday after SS checks hit the mailboxes. Something is beating up on the lower paid and fixed-income folks on the east coast, and it’s not just $3.27 gas.
The family went down to San Diego mid week. We took the kids to Sea World. In the past it has been standing room only but it wasn’t that crowded considering it is summer time. I booked our hotel on priceline and got a 4 star hotel last minute for 80.00 a night. Paradise Point on the island.
We took a quick exit to get a burger and drove through a couple of housing tracks. My husband said, “Wow, is all of San Diego for sale?” Right after that I saw a Hummer on the side of the road with a for sale sign on it, classic.
Was visiting family in Denver two weeks ago and noticed that lots of BMW’s and SUV’s with handwritten forsale signs parked on side roads in suburbia. The toys go first, then the homes.
In my San Francisco neighborhood I’ve noticed that a number of restaurants have closed and the others have all started offering ‘prix fixe’ menus from 5-7 on weekday evenings. Another is offering 20% off everything on tuesdays.
These are interesting observations: Costco and Trader Joe’s reportedly with fewer people, The Galleria in Redondo Beach with fewer people, and now you folks are talking about fewer crowds in amusement parks and beach tourist shops.
This is like the canary in the coal mine. My buddy is a devoted cult follower of Bob Brinker (financial “guru”) and claims that the economy is great and the general stock market is going to do great. Well the stocks may be doing well for now, but it’s because of earnings reports in the past, not because of what the consumers are doing now. What the consumers are doing now will affect stocks in 6 months. So trailing stops on stocks are crucial to stop any losses which are sure to be around the corner. Of course, Ford layoffs, Boeing and Raytheon layoffs in southern California, and layoffs in the construction industry are going to accelerate this trend of non-consumption.
Looks like people are now starting to either pay their debts or save money. Big Hummers will be sold at $15,000! Ha!
this isn’t so much housing, but more economically related. some of it may be due to people on vacation, but i noticed a LOT less cars out on the road this weekend and at the malls. i continue to see a lot of SUVs driving around in 95 degree weather with all the windows down, too. places where it’s normally a b*tch to find parking, it was easy. there were also tremendous deals when we were out. 5 t-shirts at foot locker for $20, auntie anne’s giving away free pretzels WITHOUT having to buy ANYTHING, etc.
the number of houses that my screen on ziprealty picks up in my area is about the same and trending higher, but the number of exact matches continues to rise. also seeing a lot of saturday open houses as opposed to only sunday previously.
WTOP - local Washington D.C. used the word “panic” to describe sellers on a short story tonight about the local market. They interviewed a Bethesda real estate lawyer who said he’s been inundated with calls from people stuck with two houses - bought one and couldn’t unload the other. The reporter anticipated “negative equity” when “prices go down”.
I noticed a few new contracts this month, though, in the D.C. suburbs. I think the long-term rates going down has a bit to do with it. We shall see. I have long been anticipating at least one dead-cat bounce from those who see the “Bargains” out there. My friend’s neighbor in Falls Church put a price tag of 449K on their new listing today, the highest price yet anyone has asked in that development.
Well I am noticing quite a bit of movement here in my No Va. It appears there are still plenty of fools out there who are buying. Inventory has topped and prices are down but inventory is moving. Sales are going through at a good rate.
This is more of unscientific view and what have I noticed from just following certain areas than from any extensive data.
Denver (80209 in particular).
As a homeowner who lives in the area and takes walks thru the neighborhood. All of this is anecdotal evidence. No real analysis involved.
1. House staying a market longer.
2. No price change from $350-400 per sq. ft.
3. One of my neighbors just sold (last week) their “scraper” on a 5900 sq. ft. lot for $575K. That is $575 for an 1/8 of an acre. Plus demolition costs and you are at $600+K for a hole in ground.
,dave
Just to be a contrarian among the contrarians, I’ll talk about a rising market. Yes, really.
The 28210 and 28209 zip codes in Charlotte. This is where the light rail is being built (thank you for $220 million from the Feds… your tax dollars at work…) For example I’ve watched Madison Park go from the $150s-180s to $210-$250s in just two years. Homes are still selling, and as far as I can tell, prices continuing to rise. Inventory is tight. I’m seeing about half as many homes on the market as I did in 2004.
Mind you, I could name several zip codes in Charlotte where I would not dare invest– because I consider them declining areas. You could buy houses for $80/sf in much of North and East Charlotte five years ago, and still can now. (These formerly middle class areas, are becoming Latino and Section 8 slums.)
Did you say a Light Rail? Is it a Monorail? You know what it did for Springfield’s home values….
Lyle Lanley: All right, I tell you what I’ll do. I’ll show you my idea! I give you the Springfield Monorail! (audience gasps) I’ve sold monorails to Brockway, Audbinville, and North Haverbrooke, and by gum, it put them on the map!
Well, sir, there’s nothing on earth like a genuine, bona fide, electrified, six-car Monorail! …
What’d I say?
Ned Flanders: Monorail!
I will be honest, the San Diego north county inland situation is as insane and belligerent as ever. No shortage of people clogging up 15 and driving angry. Plenty of folks at Fry’s, massive crowds at Home Depot in San Marcos. In addition, houses in my neighborhood (92026) have been selling. No kidding, closing escrow and everything. These are all 1200 sq foot jobs built in the mid 60’s. One 2 blocks from me just went for (are you sitting down?) $464,000.00
I know we are all rooting for a healthy correction, but it seems insanity is still in vogue in Escondido.
Well, it’s pretty dead here in downtown San Diego (North Park). There are five houses for sale on my 1/2 mile long street. One across the street did just sell for the stupid price of $895K, but the others are sitting with little apparent interest. La Boheme is a month from completion (240 units) and they are still trying to sell them. Home Depot off Imperial Ave (just north of National City) is pretty empty too.
I’ll be taking a stroll around the neighborhood today, but can already tell it’s dead.
Despite its real estate problems, I’ve always felt that San Diego was the best city in the country. Great weater, beautiful scenery, harbor, buildings, you name it. feepness, you are so lucky you can just take a stroll around the neighborhood in August.
I meant, great WEATHER. Sheesh, I hope We Rent didn’t see that misspelling.
And soon to be bankrupt city.
Those wacky trend-miesters at realtytimes.com have now coined the definitive bubble reference: “Soft Bust”.
“As the housing boom wanes and a soft bust spreads across the nation,”
I’ll be guffawing the rest of this weekend.
Hey, I like soft busts.
I was priviliged to a good pair yesterday, but they were the hard ones - surgically enhanced. But I am not complaining…
Soft bust is exactly right. Doesn’t make it any less painless.
Drove past several new developments yesterday (some Toll, some David Cutler homes, misc. others). ALL of them have signs up saying, “Hurry! Only XX units remain!” The XX was usually around 15-20. These aren’t huge developments either (meaning there’s a LOT of these new homes still waiting for buyers). Of course the other sign reads, “From the low 600s!!” Please. I think they can stop building those around here. Everyone who can actually afford “from the low 600s” has already bought.
Also, next to a friend’s house there are 2 new duplexes in final construction phase - 3 for sale (the guy building them lives in one). Not one has been sold - not one has been made an offer on. He’s asking $365,000 in a neighborhood where just 3-4 years ago the homes sold for the low $100s (not exactly an affluent area).
Other than those observations, everything else in my area remains as slightly more inventory, same old prices.
I drove through the north edge of Temecula/Murietta yesterday and I could hardly believe all the for sale signs I saw. A street I passed in one completed development had For Sale signs on nearly every house. Nearly every street had at least one house for sale, and usually more. So many signs and RE related advertisements were posted or scattered at intersections that the place looked trashy. No shortage of new stucco McBoxes in various stages of construction here. They’re still going up.
The sign twirlers were out in full force on the corners, but many have gone to a more casual approach it seems. They were sitting in folding camping chairs with their signs swinging from metal supports. No air guitar playing, dancing or sign tossing going on here. They sat in their chairs and occasionally pushed the end of the sign to make it rock up and down a bit. One guy had his sign over his face and was sleeping.
Who the hell wants to live in Temecula? It’s like volunteering to go to hell. Almost as stupid as becoming a prison worker.
I posted this on the previous topic after someone made reference to plasma TV incentives:
Yeah…about that plasma TV incentive. Yesterday, on a 4 mile walk with a friend of mine, we were spotting houses/THs for sale and picking up flyers. One of them that she picked up I already had. On it though, she said that they were offering a plasma TV. I said, yep, that’s one of the things that a lot of people are using to sell their properties. Several pictures were at the bottom of the flyer, one of which was the den with the TV.
Fast forward to today: I read the above post, and then the thought occurred to me to read that flyer (same one as noted with the tv, but I had collected it on August 8th). Well, la de da, wouldn’t you know it, but THAT week the offering for the plasma TV was NOT there, although it was the same TH, same asking price, same pictures at the bottom of the flyer, same den with the TV. Not wanting to reduce the price, they think that the TV is gonna bring in a buyer.
DOM per zip realty: 25 days, since 7/26/06. And that’s only if this isn’t a re-listing.
BayQT~
Las Sendas in NE Mesa, AZ 50% premium off lots, 20% Off up-grades. This just across the street of a brand new sub division w/30 or so houses and 1/2 for sale (flippers), never lived in. House on my street has lowered it price $70,000 (paid 213 in 02 asking 420) less then last house sold 3 months ago, no takers let alone lookers. Every gate has a open house sandwich board propped up in front w/max listings (HOA thing, only x amount per weekend) and for sales as far as the eye can see down Mc Dowell in both directions….I’d be laughing but in the end it will effect all of us on way or another.
A one year flip in SD (Bonita) gone bad.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/196512133.html
Price is now -$35K in price from what they paid for the place Aug. ‘05.
“Looks like people are now starting to either pay their debts or save money. Big Hummers will be sold at $15,000! Ha! ”
Smart folks won’t even buy them at that price–let alone any price. Talk about a useless, depreciating behemoth piece of crap…I wouldn’t have wanted one when gas was $1.50 p/gallon.
DOC
What is most bothersome to me about these Hummer owners is the fact that these people rarely if ever use them for what they were intended. They are OFF ROAD VEHICLES. My patience, while admittedly low at times, is really tested when I have to wait for some moron to try and fit his shiny behemoth into a grocery store parking space. It is not much different than being bottled up at 50 mph on the freeway behind some blue hair in a brand new corvette who has never once broken 2000 rpms in the thing. Use them for what they are intended or get a honda for crying out loud. I wanna see grandpa flying by me with his hair on fire at 120 in his Corvette, or Mrs. Yuppie slinging mud 30 yards off the road in her Hummer. I know, to each their own, but certain machines are designed for certain uses. Do these people buy a tractor to mow their front yard?
Hee Hee! Tonight at Nello’s Pizza in Ahwatukee, we said similar things to what you said as we gazed at a red Hummer with all sorts of light gizmos above the windshield and it had grey flame detailing. I was telling my companions that they probably drive it 1/2 a mile to get toothpaste at Circle K. We drive small Japanese and Korean cars. Economical cars are common sense.
BanteringBear, You’re so right. You see people with Porsches commuting in bumper to bumber 25 MPH traffic! WTF?
The best car commercial ever was a recent VW one.
They had people in other ostentatious cars with bullhorns.
A blond in a sportscar said “The more you pay attention to me the more I love myself”
A guy in a Hummer look alike “I am compensating for my shortcomings”
A guy in a Dodge look alike “Because my daddy never hugged me”
That was funny, wouldn’t make me buy a VW but still very funny.
When I see a blond (guy or gal) driving around in a way too expensive sportscar at the beach doing 10mph. I bust out the quotes.
Amen brother!
Oh, but if you did, you would be respected as a man of strength! The Governator drives a number of them.
Austin Texas remains hotter than ever (no pun intended). We are late to the party but it still seems to be building for now. However, it is insane and unsustainable. How about this for a bearish sign: In 3 years 18 of the 30 tallest building in downtown Austin will have been built in the previous 3 years. Almost all condos. The cities 3 new tallest buildings will be all or most residential. ouch.
MLS smashed through 6,000 last week for St. Petersburg, FL
On the beach here I still some new luxury condos for sale. You know, 8 months ago there were “ONLY SEVEN UNITS LEFT!!”
Now there are only “SEVEN UNITS LEFT!”
My favorite is the “South Beach” Condotel (Treasure Island or Madeira, I can’t remember)… for months they’ve had a huge sign out front “CLOSEOUT SALE!”
Why do I enjoy this so much?
Columbia, SC report…Prices are still going up here and sales are up from 2005, but the landscape has changed quite a bit. It used to be that in certain downtown markets, almost anything decent that was offered for sale was sold quickly (buyers banking on appreciation no matter what the condition). Now it seems buyers are getting a little smarter. Only the premium condition/location properties are selling at their high asking prices. Houses that are in poor condition or that are on busy streets are sitting. Plenty of tricks going on too. You’ll see agents re-listing the properties once the DOM gets up into the 100-200 range. Also, routinely square footage will be inflated (more than the standard realtor +/- 10% disclaimer). Many sellers aren’t budging as they hold out for 2005 prices. There’s also some crazy behavior that I don’t understand. It’s disheartening when you are looking for a house (like I am) b/c you can’t even find something priced correctly. It’s all either garbage or it’s overpriced beyond belief. I’m going to wait it out a little longer…
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-refi18aug18,1,5540624.story?coll=la-headlines-business
I am not surprised the L.A. Times can’t draw the inference (unfortunately for educational purposes) that people are “burning” the **equity** by refi’ing to pay for the mortgage! Talk about a 180 from the days of burning the **mortgage**.
I told my wife the other day — the next house we buy will be a 15 year fully amortizing mortgage, otherwise we are not buying it (we are currently locked into a really good 30-year fully amortizing fixed).
After 5 months on the market and no offers, my landlord took the house off the market.
Arcata, CA. 95521
Walked around the Emeryville ‘Artisan Walk’ condos this afternoon, and I finally saw my first sign twirler. She said there hadn’t been any traffic all morning. Midafternoon in the sales office and two bored (and desperate) looking sales droids shoved brochures at me- ‘From the $600s’ for 1500 square foot condos in semi-industrial Oakland/Emeryville?!? Wahaa! I had to laugh.
Try more like the 6 units in the ‘below market’ Low Income (
Hollywood Hills…
Seven, count’em 7, open house signs at the corner of Barham & Lake Hollywood. Never saw more than two there in the past 17 years.
Toluca Lake & Burbank are starting to get at least one “for sale” sign on every block, too.
Things are getting interesting in the SE SFV.