Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For August 21, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here!
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Desperate real estate bagholder index - Week of August 21:
http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2006/08/desperate-real-estate-bagholder-index_21.html
As of today, there are almost 500 “Motivated Seller!” ads on DC’s Craigslist. Only 1 ad uses the word “desperate,” but I expect that to change soon.
DC Housing Bubble Blues
Don’t forget to check for “despirate” and “desparate” as well.
Over the last few weeks I’ve done a little bouncing around over at some of the housing bull sites - just checking it out, not “stirring the next” like “txchick”. Is it just me, or does the overall IQ level on those sites seem just a cut below? I find that there is absolutely no substance. You feel as uninformed as when you walked in the door. Yet isn’t interesting that all the newcomers to sites like Ben’s make comments that they have learned so much from just reading his blog. Shouldn’t that speak volumes as to what team you should be on?
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair
Indeed.
I’ll add my two cents. By comparison, I find the comments on this blog to be very intelligent. I somehow get the sense that there are quite a few people on this board who are independent thinking, analytical, and intellectually curious.
By comparison, I find the comments on this blog to be very intelligent.
Hmmmmmm. By comparison, eh? That was a bit left-handed.
No. I actually had started to write “by comparison to the people are work with at a large corporate law firm.” Maybe I find others intelligent by comparison because I’m a little challenged myself.
Fully intended as a compliment.
Either way, at this point, I’m addicted to this blog not because of the news on housing (I really can’t use that excuse for the time I spend here given that the sign posts are becoming so unmistakable), but because I find so much interesting info here.
Don’t forget you can quickly find/read through posts of individuals contributors to this blog via google. For example, some of my favorites:
bluto
Robert Campbell
GetStucco
(GetStucco, how do you find the time to post so much content? Are you retired?)
Ben, while “this works”, it would be nice if commenting was implemented a little more robustly so that users could simply click on a poster’s name to see their own or other users previous posts.
The only problem with using “desperate” is that someone might tell these people that they should keep their cools, even if they are feeling desperate. How does such an admission increase the chance of selling a house? Anyone with brains would let their price be the main selling point.
Yes, but how many people have brains?
It seems this fool and his realtor lost their “brains” long ago. Check out the price tag on this beauty. http://tinyurl.com/g4cvk
Bear in mind this is in an area crawling with meth-heads and few jobs, none high paying. No bubble in Washington? HAHAHAHAHA! This piece of crap was like 30k max only a few short years ago.
Seems the higher on the flipper chain, the poorer the grammar and spelling are. Correlation? -
Florida real estate is being killed by windstorm damage insurance. Who wants to pay $9000 per year to insure a $250K property? Political pressure is building in Florida to demand that the risk be spread across non-hurricane states. I wonder how Ohio folks would like a 15% homeowners insurance hike to subsidize wealthy Floridians?
I am not sure how they could do this, unless they were able federalize insurance regulation in a way that would throw out 100 years’ worth of legal precedent.
It could be a bone for a desperate political party to throw at an electorally critical state. How depressing — both parties are pretty desperate, both the good guys (my side) and the other party.
By gosh, I am happy to subsidize Floridians “price of paradise”.
Hardly.
Will the rest of the US subsidize my earthquake insurance in CA???
So, you are the guy that has earthquake insurance. The other 34,999,999 of us were wonderig who you were.
How many of the 35M people are financially savvy, fiscally disciplined and diversified to self-insure? (the only real option)
I would say less than half.
So 17.5M people won’t be able to recover from an earthquake in CA.
That is enough to pop the bubble.
Robert et al, did you know that your insurance agent can negotiate with CEA? I have really good Earthquake insurance with them basically because we crossed out all of the numbers they gave us on their policy quote (numbers, I might add, which were useless) and wrote in our own. They agreed to them and the rest is history.
2nd try.
great pice of inflation adjusted movement in raltion to population growth since 1890-2000 and from 2000-2005
http://crapstocks.com/?p=55
2nd. try
from fleckeinstein”face it: the housing bust is here”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/FaceItTheHousingBustIsHere.aspx
2nd try
news from australia. they peaked in 2003. now there is trouble down under
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/trouble-in-down-under.html
Practice hides the real deal on homes for sale in Jersey
As the white-hot real estate market cools to a simmer and homes get harder to sell, some real estate agents are hiding from prospective buyers the number of days properties have been on the market and how far prices have fallen, a Star-Ledger analysis found.
These agents are cenceling listings in databases known as Multiple Listing Services and creating new ones for the same homes. That resets the sales clock and masks price reductions, both important pieces of information for buyers.
The practice, legal but under fire in other states, can be helpful to sellers and their agents, who want properties to seem as attractive as possible. But critics say it is often misleading.
“It’s deception,” said Michael Lyon, president of Sacramento, Calif.-based Lyon Real Estate and a board member at MetroList Services, one of the largest MLS databases on the West Coast. “anytime you reset something to make it look newer, better, you’re trying to deceive someone.”
Our realtor in Texas told us that their rules allow reset of DOM only after 90 days of non-listing. Now that doesn’t mean all realtors sticks to the rules, of course, and switching realtor is another way to get a reset, I suppose….
The rule in the Phoenix area MLS is also 90 days. But the MLS still resets the DOM when the listing agent (new one or same one) slightly changes the address or some other data. If the MLS operators wanted to stop the practice, they could link each property to its assessor # and add the cumulative days for each re-listing within 90 days. Apparently they do not.
1) My mom who lives in a northen Chicago suburb spoke to a friend of hers who is a custom builder of new homes on individual lots. He told my mom that “nothing is selling”
2) An acquantaince of mine who just graduated from college about a year ago told me that he want to buy a new 1br condo in an inner suburb of Washington, DC. He was considering a 280K unit.
Me: “How long do plan on living in it?”
Him: “5 years”
Me: “What do you expect the 280K units not to be selling for in 5 years?”
Him: “500K.”
Me: “No way. We are at near peak. There is no way the price will almost double in 5 years.”
Yikee!
David
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com
Ben, I spent yesterday driving from Phoenix to Wickenberg to Prescott via 89 then back to Phoenix via I-17 (got caught in a 2 hour backup due to a crash south of Black Canyon City). The whole trip, signs everywhere, more and more desert STILL being scraped for yet more 2 story tile homes on stamp sized lots with 6-10′ separation. You wouldn’t believe the development past Wickenberg on the way to Congress of all places! Prescott is sooo ugly now, especially with bark beetle damage. The desert around the valley is destroyed. There’s no way this region can support another 3-5 million people, as the growth advocates imagine. It is a mess and the quality of life sucks. I can’t wait to leave this rathole, after 25 years of putting up with it. I’m very disconcerted to say the least.
I live in Scottsdale now. I dont know much about the local Phoenix economy, but it appears that things are going to get ugly before they get better. People with mnimum incomes (uner $75,000) overspent. I was in the car dealerships this weekend, and it was empty. Should have been bustling for a Sunday, olny me and one other ’sucker’. It will greatly impact whether I buy and for what price. I have a feeling that soon the inventories will pile up, as will the voluntary repo’s.
“I can’t wait to leave this rathole, after 25 years of putting up with it. I’m very disconcerted to say the least.”
Growth is everywhere. The 600,000 people who moved into Maricopa County since 2001 said the same thing about their former places and joined in this rathole. I would betcha wherever you go to escape this rathole, someone over there is thinking the same thing. When I was a kid, my parents regarded the living conditions in a small town of 1,000 people where we lived, a “rat race.” That was 40 years ago. Everyone complains. Basically the population grows, urban planning cannot keep up with the population growth, and there you see a lot of social ills. That’s all over America. We are a throw-away society anyway. Drive out to the country anywhere in America and you see butt-ugly houses with junk scattered around on 5 acre lots. It’s common to see this in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada in California, or in the desert areas such as Barstow/Dagget. I’ve seen stuff like that in Arizona as well.
Unfortunately, you’re right. Where to go? Bonner and Wiggins write in “Empire of Debt” of the deterioration of complex societies. They’ve also written about the decay you mention as a symptom of fat and lazy Americans drunk on overconsumption. And you’re right about it being everywhere. I regularly travel to the east Sierra high desert in California to visit family. California was ruined long ago, and their basic infrastructure (freeways, electrial grid, water systems etc.) are “old” and falling apart. Visit a rest-stop and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Where to go? Problem is, there are about 70 million boomers thinking the same thing. Florida maybe
Where to go to escape the filth, the ugly, the fat, the lazy, the junk, the deterioration? Europe.
So you can trade it for riots and racial warfare… no thanks.
Canada.
75% of the population lives within 100 miles of the US border. The entire population of Canada is slightly less than the state of California alone (roughly 33 mil compared to 34 mil). Yet Canada has only slightly less land mass than the entire United States. The population density is about 3.3 people per square kilometer, one of the lowest in the world.
I’d like to learn more about Canada.
Any Canadian citizens care to share insights?
Bill Bonner? The “Great American Hater”? “Mr. Marxinomics”? There is not one thing that Mr. Bonner thinks is positive with our country. Not one!
I used to read the Daily Reckoning everyday - trying to ignore the trite socialist messages that were embedded. As time passed, the brainwashing became more intense. The Daily Reckoning is PROOF that only things of no value are free. I wouldn’t even read his book as I tore out the pages to wipe myself.
We need to keep the references on this blog credible if we are going to maintain our credibility.
dd
Bill Bonner? The “Great American Hater”?
Yes, I’ve noticed a lot of that lately too, including some German contributing comments that are outrageous. Unfortunately, a lot of what he writes is true, you just have to wade thru the repetitive crap. I’m about to stop the daily email too.
FYI: Cramer says not to worry about ARM resets. We can all come out of the bunker now…
Panic Over Option ARMS Is Just Noise
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22720674
Boy, does that make me feel better. Maybe I’ll go house shopping today.
(Apologies if this has already been posted/discussed)
whoops. closing bold now
Although I agree that long rates will stay low, Cramer’s sanguineness relies on the assumption that employment will stay strong long enough for teaser-ARM holders to improve their financial situations. So he really must expect no housing price correction (or even flattening) at all, thus not adversely affecting the new homeowners’ equity or employment situation. The correction has already started, and unemployment is a lagging indicator. Cramer is just plain wrong on this, like he is on a lot of things.
cramer also uses “savings” and “option ARM” in the same sentence, purportedly applicable to the same people. NOT.
This is a theory that I’ve posted on before. That these resets will not be the catastrophe some expect them to be.
Is your real name cramer? Pretending to be a single mom was a great cover story.
In truth, I have no evidence one way or the other. However, my intuition tells me that it is a catalyst for a causing a large repricing of the housing market. I don’t think that a large repricing is not going to cause consumers to get happier. The fear is that it is a vicious spiral, of course.
But you’ve heard this before. What leads you to a non-catastrophic outcome?
whoops. Too many “nots”. Again:
In truth, I have no evidence one way or the other. However, my intuition tells me that it is a catalyst for a causing a large repricing of the housing market. A large repricing is going to cause consumers to spend less. The fear is that it is a vicious spiral, of course.
But you’ve heard this before. What leads you to a non-catastrophic outcome?
Darn - lost my reply (if it shows up as a double post later, sorry).
I just can’t believe that the majority of those who went the ARM route did so because that’s the only way they could buy. I think there are many who went that route just to ensure the lowest possible payments early on, but who can afford to refi into a fixed. And if they went the ARM route because they are planning to flip before reset, then they’ll sell and be done - won’t go into foreclosure due to higher rates. (They may not make a profit, but they won’t be screwed just because the rate reset.)
I may be completely wrong. But I just find it hard to believe there are that many naive buyers.
And believe me - I’m not exactly proud that I agree with Cramer on this. I can’t stand the guy.
But I just find it hard to believe there are that many naive buyers.
Aha. Here is where we differ. You believe the best in people, and I believe the worst.
The thing that confuses me: why would enlightened purchasers take an ARM during a period of record low interest rates? To me, that is a possible measure of naivete. (I’m excepting the one-off cases where it might make sense; biz owners for example.)
Obviously, time will tell.
I’m not exactly proud that I agree with Cramer on this.
I had a feeling that might be the case, which is why I prodded you for more info… thanks.
I think there are many who went that route just to ensure the lowest possible payments early on, but who can afford to refi into a fixed. And if they went the ARM route because they are planning to flip before reset, then they’ll sell and be done - won’t go into foreclosure due to higher rates.
Even if they don’t foreclose the key here is twofold:
1) Their general spending will drop as interest eats up their previously discretionary funds.
2) Housing will stop appreciating, and many jobs have themselves been based on the housing frenzy.
That alone is enough to cause problems.
Sorry, I believe there was an article last week concerning one of the major lenders WAMU (?) or Countrywide(?) that discussed the average Option Arm borrower who was in financial difficulty went into financial difficulty 8 months into the loan origination as opposed to 33 months for a non option arm loan. The economy is doing great now, what happens when the economy slows?
The funny thing is that the financial difficulty started 8 months into the loan, but the first 6 months were free. Actually, that’s not so funny.
“The economy is doing great now”
If you’re a MILLIONAIRE, the economy is doing great. Check the minimum wage. Check wages in general. Check Productivity Growth. Check the nonexistent savings rate. One has to use some pretty CEO-philic metrics to characterize this economy as “doing great,” methinks…
Cramer actually RECOMMENDED his viewers buy homebuilder stocks last summer. You can probably guess how well those stock picks have done since then.
Let’s take the “ARM reset’s won’t do damage” a step farther. He is implying that Consumer Spending is not going to be affected by the decrease in equity withdrawl, and that Consumer spending won’t effect the unemplotment numbers.
Cramer the Clown has always been a surface thinker, why do people listen to this guy.
OCBear
How did that work out for Cramer’s viewers by the way…
boooya
He recommended dot coms at the top in early 2000. He is a clown.
Lowe’s misses numbers and lowers outlook:
The company also lowered its outlook for full year, giving forecasts for the third quarter and fiscal 2006 where the bottom of the estimated profit range is below the current consensus analysts’ views. It said near-term pressures on the U.S. consumer have led to a “more cautious outlook” for the balance of the year.
The trend is negative and “building up” [not the best pun, I'll confess]…
It appears that private-equity firms are trying to do the same thing as the home ATM. Except they leave employees, banks and others with the risks of debt.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0821biz-privateequity0821.html
Good link.
TxChick57 posted a link on this subject yesterday as well. This is not a new problem, but it becomes more apparant as the economy slows and the debt loads become untenable. It also gets more aggressive as the private finance folks are forced to “construct” deals to make the big bucks, instead of riding a rising tide.
And what frosts me is they have this BS schtick that they are somehow smarter or more financially sophisticated than the rest of us; hence, they “deserve” their greater wealth. I used to see a lot of this in the daytrading area back in the gogo days. Lots of big talk about making 100K per day by people in certain shops because somehow they were just freaking better than the rest of us. Of course, we find out later they were on the squawk box or were getting other restricted information and had info about order flow the rest of us did not. Pretty easy to make a lot of money when you know what’s going to happen ahead of time.
All of these markets are so corrupt. I would have though the U.S. stock market would have a fair chance of being re-energized with the popping of this housing bubble (the money has to go somewhere) but I am not so sure now, when I see some of the things we’re currently reading about. Perhaps an ‘87 style crash is in order first. Works for me. I’m 90% short.
Not smarter, they are just more brazen than the rest of us, and in a position to take advantage of it. Sort of like IBs that not only want a big piece of the deal, but also want their high fees paid whether the deal flys or not.
What sales tactics will homebuilders use next to push houses, you ask?
Why, they make a commercial starring a dog to promote their pet-friendly new home designs!
From today’s St. Paul Pioneer Press:
A golden retriever and her entourage caused quite a stir at an Apple Valley housing development in June, at least among neighborhood pooches: the professionally trained dog was there to star in a Web video for Centex Homes, a builder that hopes to market itself to pet owners.
The video, titled “A Dog’s Eye View” and available for viewing at http://www.centex.com/minneapolis, shows the dog enjoying the amenities of a model home and its neighborhood. Owners of non-show-biz canines will soon be able to opt for Centex amenities such as dog wash basins in the mudroom and carpet that won’t snag under the nails of a cat or dog.
Full article at
http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/15298675.htm
I hope someone tells that dog to hold off a year or at least put in a serious lowball offer.
That was cute : )
News from Detroit. Values down 8%.
Second article shows 7000 homes for sale in my county (Wayne) and 7422 in forclosure.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060818/BIZ03/608180389/1012
also
http://www.freepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060820/BUSINESS04/608200500/1017
“”I don’t sense we’re on the precipice of a steep downward spiral,” he said.”
Somehow most people don’t sense when they are on the precipice of a spiral, they don’t sense it until they are IN the spiral.
News from Detroit. Values down 8%.
Second article shows 7000 homes for sale in my county (Wayne) and 7422 in forclosure. I dont see this working itself out anytime soon.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060818/BIZ03/608180389/1012
also
http://www.freepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060820/BUSINESS04/608200500/1017
Cramer says not to worry about ARM resets.
—————————————————————————
If there was ever any doubt that Cramer was an idiot, this cleared up that doubt!
One of the biggest misconceptions about option ARMS is that only “younger” people and “professional investors” use these products…with the idea of refinancing later when incomes increase or the value of the house goes up.
Most people I’m talking to these days are sweating the ARM resets. The power of large number leverage is working against people here in So Cal!
We have friends who are being squeezed by their ARM. (not an option ARM, just a regular one.) If they sell now, in our still hot market, they will walk away with about 50K, and they could use the money to add $500 a month to what they can pay for a rental and live in a nicer house than the one they own for the next 10 years and the husband won’t have to work an extra job while their kids finish growing up just to keep the house. We have been hinting to try to make them consider selling, but I will be a little surprised if they do.
Your “still hot market”? Curious - someplace in TX, TN, or SC? Anchorage, perhaps?
This is where we draw the line in the sand. An informal survey of my friends and family yields not one with a option ARM for their primary residence. Any one stupid enough to still have an option ARM deserves to loose whatever they “own” financed by this instrument. I think the final number will be far less than what we expected when contrasted with total home owners. Cramer will be somewhat correct based upon this but that still means plenty-o-pain for those “investors/floppers” on the wrong side of the transaction…
Although rent rates are reported to be going up in the country as a whole, the number of rentals continues to balloon. Here are some ‘for rent’ numbers from some markets that I am following.
Craiglist house rentals.
3BR
Date Phoenix Orlando Raleigh
25/03 2571 610 724
02/04 2494 637 711
01/05 2572 766 908
09/06 3014 961 903
01/07 3296 1055 979
01/08 3930 1255 1138
02/08 4034 1306 1165
03/08 4096 1347 1170
07/08 4166 1374 1186
08/08 4114 1386 1161
09/08 4242 1419 1193
10/08 4323 1432 1204
11/08 4438 1461 1214
14/08 4452 1511 1190
15/08 4553 1542 1225
16/08 4594 1551 1231
17/08 4687 1588 1248
18/08 4755 1609 1261
21/08 4846 1619 1249
The Phoenix market has an increase of over 23% so far in August. Also, note the increase in the number of vacancies in the Raliegh market. I lived in that area for 10 years and I can tell you that late summer when the students are getting ready to return to NCSU, UNC and Duke has always had low vacancies.
I think many would be landlords are in for a big disappointment. The number of renters is less elastic then home buyers. You might buy more then one home for ‘investment’ but very few will rent more then one. There may be some new renting by people who have been displaced by foreclosures etc but I don’t think that will fill the empty houses, in fact some of the foreclosures will be bought at cash flow positive prices and come back to the market as even more rentals.
Although I agree that rental vacancies or inventories are increasing, I wouldn’t place too much on these numbers as some of the growth is due to increasing popularity of craigslist. I also see a lot of duplicate or multiple posts. As far as empty houses, I am watching an area in north central phoenix, and I’m guessing that for every sign I see (sale or lease), there are at least 2 or 3 properties that are vacant with no sign. I’m still seeing many rolloffs (read: flipper bagholders).
I haven’t been couting, but am noticing more rental ads on the local Craigslist and the local property management listings.
that would be “counting”
inside a homebuilder
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/aus-dem-innenleben-einen-homebuilders.html
As I have CNBC on most of the day while working I have noticed that all the information that the economist say we already have been blogging about 6 or 8 months prior,, is the rest of the work 8 months behind???
—AL
CL real estate for sale ad that says “Why wait for prices to keep dropping”
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/rfs/195897643.html
“Really need to sell ASAP
I need to get a contract on a townhome I own this week.
“It is a great home built in 1999 and in the renowned Asbhurn Village.”
“Why wait for prices to keep dropping while interest rates continue to climb? You end up with the same size monthly payment anyway. ”
“This price reflects the price for a buyer with no real estate agent. I will also handle all of your paperwork and get you to closing since I have my real estate agent license.”
Oh, yeah. I’ll trust you to do the paperwork. And heck, you’re right - I might as well buy now rather than wait for priced to drop further. After all, you really need to sell ASAP.
FYI, Ashburn is an exurb of DC. About 1 hour with no traffic and 2 hours with traffic.
I’m noticing that many of the flops in the DC area are owned by realtors.
My research (via local MLS & zillow) show that property was sold for $341k in April 2004, $135K in Feb. 2000.
This confirms what I’ve been seeing. Prices in D.C. proper are back to Spring 2004 for the neighborhoods I monitor. I’ve also noticed a lot of “owner agent” listings on properties in the 1 to 1.5 million range.
the bubble in uk is alive and kicking
they also have a special housingminister. very strange
http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Mortgage Backed=Junk
http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=russwinter&nextdate=8%2f21%2f2006+23%3a59%3a59.999
Saw these two ads in the local Sunday paper, sfh rental section, REIC trying to make money off of students and other renters:
STUDENTS Why Rent? Gain Equity & Buy! 3 BD, 3 people, $350/mo Now your thinking!
Keep 1st and last in your pocket. Buy a home -0- down.
These homes have some nice details, but 369k for skinny homes on a tiny lot in Boise? This place is out of control.
http://boise.craigslist.org/rfs/196876034.html
The Orlando numbers are helping to push SFR and condo rents down in the area, overall. What I am paying $2,000/mo. for, is now available for $1,800 and headed lower.
http://www.citysidelofts-boise.com/
This is a “big city” style condo building going up in Boise (a block from the homeless shelter). I was curious as to how they were selling. They advertise 42 lofts available; the online brochure shows at least 3/4 of the units being sold. Out of curiosity I checked the MLS: 26 units are available for sale.
While downtown housing is a great idea, lofts priced at 217k for 1b/1ba to 589k for a 3b/2ba place is over the top for this town.
Comment Opportunity Alert:
NPRs ‘Talk of the Nation’ has announced this topic for tomorrow:
“Aug. 22 · The end of the housing boom, what it means to you”.
I assume that they would take email questions in advance, in case any of you who want to question, comment and/or play provocateur are unable to call in from work.
http://tinyurl.com/3pz9s
Just sent an e-mail. I’m such a rabble rouser! I love it!
anyone have any links/info on North Carolina? Looking for anything, but am particularly interested in Ashville area.
Thanks.
anyone have insight into Ashville NC area?
It’s a beautiful area. That’s I’ll I can tell you. But don’t tell anyone.
How do I stop the refi phone calls?
I just can’t stand it anymore. I have a 408 area code (Pacific Time)but now live in Central Time. I’m getting a call a day or more. I already signed up for do-not-call why are they still coming thru.
It’s only going to get worse!!! I don’t even have a mortgage anymore.
Help…help…help
I have noticed since I put an answering machine on my line (due to some volunteer work I do), the junk callers never leave a message.
So now I let the answering machine take the call even when I’m at home.
Dawnal seems to be getting some vindication for her contention that the Plunge Protection Team is real:
http://tinyurl.com/q5ase
For those in the NYC area, it seems a developer in Williamsburg has decided to convert a condo development into rentals after being unable to sell enough units in the building:
55 Berry Street
55 Berry Street
I just have to tell you all about what happened to my front door on Saturday.
I went outside and found a cheap green flyer stuck in my door crack and figured it was a pizza coupon. When I opened it up, it turned out to be an ad for a house that’s for sale (no price listed). Underneath the ad for the pictured house was a list of 10 other houses (”properties”) in our neighborhood for sale by the same real estate agent. Brilliant!
The guy figures it’s not even worth it to print these ads on the (bygone) standard heavy-weight, high-gloss cards that used to get placed in bags and hung on our door?
My poor door!
Tee-hee-hee. Tee-hee!
12 million illegals gotta live somewhere. How hard would the bubble crash be if:
1. Cities banned hiring and housing http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/08/20/D8JKI9BG0.html
2. We started mass deportations as suggested in Pat Buchanan’s new book: http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpjb.htm
??????
A lot, a lot, a lot, for a lot. Asking Price for NYC Explosion Site: $8M
from the AP:
‘NEW YORK — A Manhattan lot where a town house stood until a suicidal doctor blew it up to avoid selling it in a divorce settlement is on the market for $8 million. Florrie Milan, a broker with Brown Harris Stevens, said Sunday there has been “a lot, a lot, a lot of interest” in the 20-by-100-foot lot on East 62nd Street.’
‘Nicholas Bartha, 66, died July 15, five days after authorities say he caused a gas explosion to level the mansion so his former wife, Cordula Hahn Bartha, couldn’t benefit from its sale.’
‘The 124-year-old mansion was worth $4 million, according to court papers filed by Bartha’s daughter, Serena, who asked the court to appoint her administrator of her father’s estate because no will has been found. She and another daughter own 25 percent of the lot; their father owned the rest.’
‘Bartha owed more than $4 million to his ex-wife as a result of their divorce settlement, according to the papers.’
‘The listing for the vacant lot reads: “Seize this opportunity to build your dream house!” It touts its location on “a quiet, lovely tree lined street in New York City’s Upper East side Historic District.”‘
Yup, a lovely, tree-lined, explosion-prone 2000 sq ft lot full of rubble for only $8 million. Good karma too. Where do I sign?
E 62nd is a super-prime Manhattan location. They’ll get top dollar for that even with the bad karma.
Get out your barf bags, the Federal Reserve tells us there is no housing bubble. From:
http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/realestate/2006/08/21/bubble_or_no_bubble/
“Our main findings are as follows.
First, it appears that the housing boom
has not been driven by unusually loose
monetary policy. This is not to say that
monetary policy has not been unusually
loose, but that to the extent it has been
loose, this is not what has been driving
spending on housing. Second, the current
levels of spending on housing are largely
explained by the wealth created by dramatic
technological progress over the
previous decade. Third, changes in the
demographic, income, educational, and
regional structure of the population account for only
one-half of the increase in homeownership. That is,
without any other developments, the homeownership
rate is likely to have gone up anyway, but not by
nearly as much as it has done. The last finding is that
substitution away from rental housing made possible
by technology-driven developments in the mortgage
market, such as subprime lending, could account for
a significant fraction of the increase in residential investment
and homeownership. The current spending
boom thus may be a temporary transition toward an
era with higher homeownership rates and a share of
spending on housing that is nearer historical norms.”
My favorite is:
First, it appears that the housing boom
has not been driven by unusually loose
monetary policy.
OH. Okay. IF YOU SAY SO. I guess I’ll just wait for the check from the “dramatic technological progress over the previous decade.” And, when I get it I’ll run out and buy the house of my dreams.
These guys better double-check their “Historical Norms.”
If the federal reserve is trying to paint it “pretty”, things are worse off than anyone imagined. $0.02 over
You gotta love the title of this article by Bill Fleckenstein.
Face it: The housing bust is here.
…Slowly helping to move ARM IO NegAm borrowers past the denial phase, and into the anger stage…
To the person inquiring about Asheville: You might also consider communities along the I-85 corridor through South Carolina. Check out the home prices for Greenville, SC and nearby locations on realtor.com. You’ll probably be able to pay cash and have money left over.
Just keep in mind that salaries here will be commensurately lower. But if you have no mortgage or rent payments…