‘The Clearest Signs Of Cooling’ For Las Vegas
The Las Vegas Review Journal has this housing bubble update. “Las Vegas’ housing market picked the hottest month of the year to show its clearest signs of cooling. New home sales in July dropped 41 percent from the same month a year ago and existing home sales fell 35.1 percent as the market continues its downward slide.”
“Existing sales slid to 3,400, compared with 5,235 a year ago. The 1,808 new home closings were the fewest since April 2003 and slightly more than half of the 3,474 closings in the previous month, local research firm SalesTraq reported Wednesday. ‘I was kind of shocked when I saw 1,800 new home sales,’ SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said.”
“Murphy has challenged the housing bubble theorists every year by citing increasing prices in Las Vegas, but now admits he ‘underestimated the slowdown.’”
“Median prices of both new and existing homes climbed 3.2 percent in July. However, the new home median of $299,152 is down significantly from $337,395 in June. The median price for existing homes was $289,000, a scant $450 increase from the previous month.”
“Realtor Kurt Lehman in Las Vegas said he’s thought for some time that many of the housing experts ‘keep looking through ivory tower, rose-colored glasses.’”
“New home building permits declined 47.7 percent in July to 1,566 as builders look to reduce their standing inventory. The 515 active subdivisions in Las Vegas are up 20.6 percent from last year.”
“‘If you look at permits, they’ve been in the red (negative) for the last few months,’ Murphy said. ‘I think the builders realized that because they started cutting down on permits and started offering huge incentives and bonus commissions for Realtors. That’s why they pulled back on permits. They saw that happening.’”
“Real estate consultant Steve Bottfeld said it’s important to understand why the Las Vegas housing market performed badly in July. Most analysts point to a variety of negative economic factors. They’re right, but the impact of vertical construction in Las Vegas on housing sales, prices and especially inventory appears to be consistently underestimated, Bottfeld said.”
“‘Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development,’ he said. Recent news that Nevada ranked among the top five states with the largest slump in housing sales during the second quarter is only part of the story here, Bottfeld said.”
Thanks to the reader who sent in this link. Here’s some more LV info:
‘Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported the second straight monthly decrease in visitation statistics in June when 3.2 million people visited Southern Nevada, a 2 percent decrease from June 2005. It was the steepest percentage decrease in tourism since March 2003.’
Now that people are realizing they gambled with their homes, they are are a little gun shy to be gambling in Vegas.
I think the visitors/gamblers from Asia (or lack of) contributed to the drop. Most Asians will go to Macau now since the openings of few American like Casino over there. No need to spend 16 hours on the flight to gamble anymore.
A 2 percent drop is probably a sign that the economy is weakening. People will still gamble… but there will be fewer convention attendees, etc.
Whoops! Outsourced the casinos.
This is off topic but I found very interesting. I’m currently reading up on the Great Depression of found this interesting (from wikipedia):
“In the 1920s, the widespread use of the home mortgage and credit purchases of automobiles and furniture boosted spending but created consumer debt. People who were deeply in debt when a price deflation occurred were in serious trouble—even if they kept their jobs—and risked default. Indeed, prices and incomes fell 20-50%, but the debts remained at the same dollar amount. As the debtors tightened their belts, consumer spending fell, and the whole economy weakened. With future profits looking poor, capital investment slowed or stopped. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, banks became more conservative. They built up their reserves, which intensified the deflationary pressures. The downward spiral sped up. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 depression.”
Sound familiar? According to wikipedia, this is Bernake’s debt-deflation view of the Great Depression.
1800 homes were sold? I’m surprised they would sell even one. I was in Vegas in July. Too hot and dumpy for me…
Too hot and dumpy??? Then don’t ever come to Phoenix cause it is that much hotter and that much dumpier (that monsoon in the summer is a freaking killer). IMHO, Phoenix is the biggest hell hole and why anyone would pay 500K for 2000 sqft of hell is beyond me.
“Phoenix is the biggest hell hole and why anyone would pay 500K for 2000 sqft of hell is beyond me. ”
LOL! Well said!!! I was in Vegas 10 months ago and thought it was a Slaughter House. 8-10 For Sale signs per Block! I do beleive this will come to pass in So Cal.
2000 sq/ft of hell is currently going for $340K.
“‘Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development,’ he said. Recent news that Nevada ranked among the top five states with the largest slump in housing sales during the second quarter is only part of the story here, Bottfeld said.”
___________________________________________
What exactly is this guy saying? Negative or positive?
I think he’s terrified now that he’s seen home sales get sucked out to sea last month and has now just realized that an a condo tsunami 38,000 condos high is approaching and will hit flood the market. He knows these condos’ MUST be sold. And he realizes that the weakness in July’s home prices will be nothing compared to what will happen soon. LV will be a absolute disaster.
However, he also says 90% are in escrow?
I agree with you - either way Vegas is screwed!
Why should pre-sold condos in Las Vegas be any different than all the other bubble cities? Almost all will be immediately put right back on the market as soon as they are completed, IMO.
The prospective owners haven’t had to start making payments yet. Many were speculators looking for the quick flip and some easy money. Even the ones that were considering the possibility of a longer-term “investment” might reconsider once they look into the possibilities of renting (cash flowing) their units and correctly conclude they wouldn’t be able to. And then they see the comps. And then they will most likely cancel their contracts.
You’re in Vegas Baby! Ya’got know when to fold’em!
vegas should be worse of. because there are so many first class hotels whre you can do a relativle cheap vacation
woa nellie
we haven’t spoken LV in the same breath as phoenix or west pb much around here. until now.
but hasn’t the wildcard team won the world series like 3 of the past 4 years?
38,000 !!! I can’t believe that number!!! Anyone who thinks there will be a ’soft landing’ in that market is on crack.
As the pilot told the paasengers “Put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye, but don’t worry, it will be a soft landing”
passengers
Isn’t paasengers what sheople cal themselves?
“cal”=”call”. My bad.
Bets on how many partially completed condo towers will be abandoned in LAS? I just can’t see how the market will absorb all of those, especially if the econ hits a recession. Some of these projects will go broke and the city will be stuck with eyesores.
Maybe HUD will buy them and turn it into section 8 housing.
Nah. They implode buildings they don’t need anymore
MjM
“‘Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development,’
Here is another laugher. Do you all recall the “see thru” High rise bussiness buildings of the 80’s? Someone will eat a mile of tubesteak on this mess.
Holyshit I was just thinking of the “see thru” when I read your thread. A great story, remember Barry Minkow? ZZZZZbest cleaning, he took “investors” to a “see thru” office building, I think in Sacramento, he told them he had the whole building as a job. Let the games begin.
“‘Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development,’
Here is another laugher. Do you all recall the “see thru” High rise bussiness buildings of the 80’s? Someone will eat a mile of tubesteak on this mess.
Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development,
For the love of God , stop building guys. What the heck is wrong with these people.
“What happens in Vegas , stays in Vegas”
No , unfortunately it also happens in FL Cal Az Mass etc etc etc etc etc.
Let’s see. 3400 closed sales this month. And 38,000 condos in various stages of construction….. is that…no it can’t be….help me Lord…that is an 11 month supply if every home builder and individual re-seller took thier properites OFF the market. Ouch. Anyone want to roll the dice in LV….oh wait, some big players already are!!!!
Las Vegas Condo Boom
Las Vegas is gonna be hit hard. The amount of over construction of high rise condos, can’t be overstated.
The Casino Companies stocks have taken a nose dive.
A further drop in discretionary spending ( read travel & gambling) will really send all the gamblers packing.
the mgm center city is out of control. 10,000 condo units in 4 bldgs plus 24 other bldgs. absolute dubui-esque insanity. this may yet achieve the ironic title of going from 9th wonder of the world to the world’s greatest eyesore
I can’t remember who on this blog stated, when the market downturned and California starting getting the “sniffles”, Las Vegas would succomb to pnuemonia, great analogy because that’s exactly what’s going on here. Currently Las Vegas is a 23000+ inventory and counting. Concurrently, rents are sliding too, as properties sit unoccupied, it’s not uncommon to go into new home developments and feel like you’re in a ghost town, with for sale signs for days.
Funny thing happened to us the other day, we went to view a property to rent it and the owner became irate in a matter of seconds when we told her we had 2 more properties to look at in the same development before making a decision. Well the owner had tried to throw a old stale realtor antic by saying , “oh by the way, I got another faxed application and she’ll have the money by Monday, and I politely said, well ok, we have other properties to look at before making a decision and you could actually see the owner’s demeanor change from cordial, polite to desperate, angry and foaming at the mouth.
SCARY!
Rents sliding?! No! No! No!
The economists told me rents would rise as house sales slowed.
Where is LV Landlord and her bulletproof cashflowing properties?
Oh my, bulls are slinking back to the rocks they crawled out from under.
Waahoo, you are exactly right and this is an important point. In 1990-94, so many single family homes came on the market that RENTS DROPPED. Apartment with historic occupancy in the 90%+ range, suddenly were competing for tenant with STUCK homeowners and vacancies dropped to the mid 80% range. LOTS OF APARTMENT OWNERS BOUGHT HIGH IN THE LATE 80′S AND LOST THEM TO FORECLOSURE IN THE EARLY 90′S. There is no salvation for anyone in a depressed housing market. Stock up on cash.
J in R,
I’m just a stupid carpenter but another poster here, who all in all seemed very coherent o other points, was stuck on the idea that rents would rise in this downturn.
I couldn’t follow his argument but he seemed to assume that these spec houses would sit empty or be rented “inefficiently” so as to put upward pressure on rents.
The meatgrinder is now well lubed for the pending RE massacre in Vegas.
I think there is going to be some “Deliverance” type activity going on without any lube.
Ned Beatty’s pig squeel won’t be anything compared to the yelps comin’ out of all these FB’s after the cornholing they’re going to take.
1800 new home closings in July compared to around 3400 in June? WOW. That’s extremely abrupt for one month. Looks like half the people are now getting the picture. When the idiots/Ponzi scheme end-of-the-line-people finally realize they’ve overspent by literally 100s of ks, then denial will officially turn to panic. I figure this will happen around a couple weeks after Labor Day when it dawns on these people that the next hot selling season will not save them since this one has been so mediocre coupled with the realization they can’t afford the debt load and no one will take the burden from them because of falling prices beneith the debt load.
Once this occurs, defaults and foreclosure rates skyrocket even more when banks are now left holding the bag. Some completely go under and there’s a panic in the banking system. This is how the Great Depression happened folks. I don’t think we’ll have that magnitude of a downturn, but we’re definitely looking at a late 70s to early 80s type economy for a few years.
It’s the 2006 Labor Day Massacre!
BTW, here is a bit of “tinfoil” for you guys/gals to enjoy
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/allen/allen082406.html
That is an understatement. There is more than a bit of tinfoil at that website.
TRich,
Who knows what will happen, but when I look at the numbers, I think a depression and bank failures are in the cards. Let’s see:
Record debt in both gov’t and people: check
This debt is backed by nothing but faith: check
Economy based on 70% consumer spending: check
A fair amount of money coming in form of debt from HELOC: check
This money/debt coming from housing: check
Housing now depreciating: Check
Rates on that debt actually going up: check
People realizing promises by banks same as ones by realtors:Look out!
It is the same thing as the Great D. One difference is that then, banks lent money on gold they didn’t have. That was a problem since you can’t create gold out of thin air. Fast forward, and you have banks making loans on paper they don’t have. Ben B. thinks he knows the solution which is just create a bunch more to take the place. Only problem is, when we are a debtor nation, what happens when people realize that is how we pay our debts? No more 3 billion a day, and dollars become worth something less than today. I’d be guessing that’ll be a topic of conversation at Jackson Hole this weekend.
You forgot. Most of the mortgages have been repackaged and sold on the bond market to Hedge funds, retirement funds (think CALPERS), university endowments (think Harvard, Yale, Stanford), and other GSEs. I think the banking system will be able to hold on (except maybe Wells Fargo and Washinton Mutual), the others are going to left holding bad note selling them for pennies on the dollar.
Carlsbad,
Hmmm. Is there something I’ve missed with Wells Fargo? We have our conventional 15 yr. mortgage through them so your comments have me curious. Any chance I could get you to shed some light on this for me? Many thanks!
Carlsbad,
Counting retained mortgage portfolios, MBS holdings, and residential real estate construction loans, U.S. banks have record exposure to residential real estate — something around 60%. The banking system doesn’t stand an ice cube’s chance in hell.
Just curious - why? Why won’t it be as great? ‘Cause I’m looking for a reason, and I haven’t found one.
Hey, where’s LVLandlord? I’d like to hear his take on this. It’s very touchy around here talkin’ real estate, that is. One female acquaintenance(sp)? I work with says she an investor and says her properties continue to appreciate at a astronomical rate, and I said wow, true gains nowadays aren’t realized until properties are sold, so I go onto say, “have you looked at LV inventory, over 20000 and counting…. you should have seen the look on her face, I swear I thought she was gonna cry. Another coworker of mine, an RN too, is working 5-12 hour shifts at one establishment and 2-12 hour shifts at another just to keep from sinking. Talk about working with a hag.
SCARY!
Actually, LVL is a “she”.
I think the co-worker she describes is LVL.
Talk about working with a hag.
LMFAO !!!!!
I had just posted on how much I miss her. I am glad to see I am not alone!
Hey, where’s LVLandlord?
Didn’t you hear that he jumped off the Las Vegas Stratosphere?
lol…housing bear you crazy!!! Seriously, I don’t get off on anyone’s misfortune but at the same time I’m not gonna let you tell me anything and think that this RE market is still golden.
Most of what these working stiffs are going through, ie stress, depression, panic and denial is brought on by their own doing, you must think long term when making housing decisions…..but nooooooooooo, their logic is superseded by greed. Oh well.
Happy house hunting for everyone!
gees beargirl. how many people do you suppose are staring at ceilings in wide-eyed terror at 3:00a.m. while bears like us are snoring away?
what kind of thing do i worry about at bedtime? the usual stuff of course. but not bankrupcy, IRS wage garnishments, poverty and the likes.
I don’t get off on anyone’s misfortune
I’m trying not too. I’ve learned that some people are generally ignorant and stubborn. They have to have the last word on everything because it feeds their egos, even if they really don’t know what the fk they are talking about.
I can’t tell you how many countless people at my former job so smugly told me I didn’t know what I was talking about, and that if I didn’t buy last year prices would only go up and I’d miss out.
Forget my arguments about basic supply and demand, rising interest rates and growth rates. Nah I didn’t know what I was talking about. Not one of them has said ‘wow Greg, you might have been right about that’. That irritates me so … as I’ve said before :
Don’t shoot ‘em, let em burn !!!
Stupid is as stupid does. Your nimrod colleagues are not suddenly going to have a new and transformative thoughts .. it would explode there pea brains. The truly ignorant abhor objective data. It makes ‘em fart shamelessly.
Unfortuantely she does not have a chair to sit in!
There might be a lot of people jumping off the Stratosphere in the near future.
It’s “touchy” in the Vancouver suburbs now, too. I e-mailed my sister some recent housing stats about the US AND here, and she gets all riled up. I think that’s “telling” on her part…
Ben, was your server down for a bit today?
Yes. There were server problems. Sorry about that.
The folks that I work with are older and a fair number are pretty wealthy and spend well within their means. They’ve generally been in their homes for quite some time. And there are a number of housing bears at work. Sometimes talking to someone at work is like reading this blog.
Folks I would seriously not talk to people outside these forums — you are going to see some real, biblical wailing in the streets with people tearing their hair out and begging for mercy.
There is nothing fair about it — the same people who ridiculed you for renting are not able to take the heat when it’s their turn.
Schadenfreude is meant, by nature, to be a personal experience, not a shared one.
I agree. A couple (friends) in L.V. have already given their home back and the two SUV’s. They thought I was dumb for not buying (and for driving a used car). Well, now I am looking for a car and every dealership is bending over backwards to do whatever they can to get me and my wife to buy. In both R.E. and cars, it is a buyer’s market. And if you wait a while, you’ll be able to get condo’s in L.V, Phoenix (Scottsdale is where I live now), Florida, SoCal, etc. for 25% of current asking. I kid you not. It is going to get ugly, but if you know what you are doing, then you will make a killing in the next five or so years…that is, as long as we dont implode as a nation from the coming recession/depression.
Bernanke, think quick and find another asset class for us to believe in and exploit before its too late…
The following is from the http://www.minyanville.com website. They have some pretty good articles on R.E. and the one below explains why rent to sale price ratios have been out of whack since 1997.
“Did you know that according to the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, housing wealth accounted for about 40 percent of the overall net worth of households at the end of 2005?
Did you know that housing’s share of household net worth has increased more than 10 percentage points since the start of 1997.
Did you know that while 40% of the overall net worth of households is tied up in their houses, the Personal Savings Rate has been negative now for five consecutive quarters, more than a year?
Did you know that the last time the Personal Savings Rate was negative for an entire year was in 1932 and 1933?
Did you know that US bank delinquencies of credit cards rose to 4.13% in the second quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2004?”
See the full article at
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11065
I think condos are available right now for 25% off to be honest. 50% will follow shortly. People are figuring out quickly that buying an “apartment” is not such a smart idea.
You are correct sir…at least 50% or they will never sell.
Folks I would seriously not talk to people outside these forums — you are going to see some real, biblical wailing in the streets with people tearing their hair out and begging for mercy.
Frank, I put my money, where my mouth is and bet my future on it. I do not give personal advice of any kind unless, I am totaly cornered. Last year I voted with my bucks and feet and sold out. I am a renter now.
This whole mess is the Ant and Grasshopper story. I was told many times by my Father. We are the Ants …..”they” are the Grasshoppers. Davis Liar-mann is the “prince with no clothing”
There is nothing fair about it — the same people who ridiculed you for renting are not able to take the heat when it’s their turn.
Dad said one more thing “life is not fair”
My fears of potential frustration yesterday were realized this morning when the most bullish of housing bulls at work had some news article up on her computer. She said, “Oh, my God, Pat, what do you think about all of this?”
I wished I had gone to the Catholic Supply Store for St. Joseph last night.
Why did I even try for the last year. Lots of wasted breath.
My Dad said ” If you’re going to be dumb,you better be tough”
Mom said “life isn’t fair”
Steven Wright said ” You can’t have everything….where would you put it? “
I’d just leave it where it is.
Yes, I suggest one should be a bit careful. I had similar discussions on big Dutch investment forums around 2001/2002 when it looked like the Dutch housing market had topped, some speculators got burned and RE brokers had plenty of time to visit the forums as well.
It got really scary with insult on insult, forum moderators trying to prevent you from publishing home price data on the forum, RE brokers trying to find out your home address to make their threats a little bit more convincing etc. Dutch home prices are much higher now in most areas so it proved to be just a hiccup on the way up, but it was a good warning for the shape of things to come.
“Murphy has challenged the housing bubble theorists every year by citing increasing prices in Las Vegas, but now admits he ‘underestimated the slowdown.’”
Look how it costs Murphy nothing to admit he was wrong. What about all those people he convinced that we were not in a bubble? They are all on the hook.
“What about all those people he convinced that we were not in a bubble?”
Some may come calling using hot lead as conversation. Just as a few deranged bankrupt investors have taken their aggression out on their brokers in the past, some will most certainly channel their anger towards realtors, economists, etc. People have a hard time accepting that their own greed and stupidity is behind their demise and would rather go after the ones who they perceive are to blame.
That is why Crisp in Bakersfield needs bodyguards.
Hey Crispy&Cole got any more good stories?
How are those high rise condos at CSU Bakersfield coming along?
New blog by me-
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/
The noose is getting real tight on these guys. I dont want to spread rumors, once I have facts I will post. Within a year these guys are toast.
I saw him around town the other day. He had two large bodyguards with headsets on. WHO ARE THEY TALKING TO?!?!?!? LMAO. The conversation must have gone like this - “look out there is some gum on the ground”, “hold on - OK all clear”…
“People have a hard time accepting that their own greed and stupidity is behind their demise and would rather go after the ones who they perceive are to blame.”
In this case they have a right to channel SOME of their anger towards realtors, economists, etc. Fraudulent cheerleaders deserve some of the blame, if not jail time.
Bush was a cheerleader (still is)!
I think the reason there’s been a disconnect between the projections and the reality (i.e., falling faster than projected), especially for Wall Street, is that there is a disconnect between the elite, if you will, and middle America. I think those on Wall Street have a hard time understanding that the average American cannot afford a $3k a month mortgage. I have somewhat of the same disconnect. I’ve lived in large cities my entire life and have no idea where to even look for the houses that are priced below the national median. I have no idea where this portion of the population is, how they live and how they get by.
3K/month? CO & TX are foreclosures ‘R’ us on 1K/month mortgages. Living in SoCal, I still find that amazing.
That’s right. People from outside the state simply have no comprehension how a 125k house could be grossly overpriced, so they buy three.
yes, same story everywhere … I remember hearing from a guy from Bulgaria who complained that Dutch investors often buy up homes in the small Bulgarian villages ten at a time because they are ’sooo cheap!’ and because the potential gain for flipping one property is just ‘pocket change’. Probably those village homes are already way overpriced now by local standards.
Here… let’s have a contest… who can punch the softest…
Cfox..no one put a gun to the buyers and forced their signatures.
There are vast differences between the level of new construction in Vegas and the NE region of the country, but I think it says a lot about how widespread the problems are that sales of new homes were off by more than 40 % in each market.
The NE certainly hasn’t been adding new homes (as a percentage of total) at the breakneck pace of Vegas, but both markets have hit the wall.
I haven’t seen the new sales numbers for Texas or the Carolinas, but existing sales there were the only thing that kept that number from scaring the crap out of people.
If those markets pull back at all there’s going to be big trouble and if they dive like the NE or Florida already have, the ballgame is over with more dead bulls on the field than the bears can eat.
I miss LV_Slumlord who used to frequent this blog. He was such a inspirational poster boy for everything wrong with the bubble
Hey, Vegas is different!
‘Counting retained mortgage portfolios, MBS holdings, and residential real estate construction loans, U.S. banks have record exposure to residential real estate — something around 60%. The banking system doesn’t stand an ice cube’s chance in hell.’
Bank America puts here are a safe play here as a hedge especially going into the worst eight weeks for the stock market. Sitting right at all time highs and enterprise value of $450B+..
I think WAMU is worse off.
Is it, therefore, safe to assume that WAMU and WELLS will offer higher CD rates? If I bag them, doesn’t the fed back them up $100,000 per person, per account?
” The inventory of unsold homes in July rose to a record high of 3.86 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to exhaust that overhang. That is the longest period to exhaust the supply of home since the spring of 1993. ”
…and it’s only just starting that the fit is hitting the shan.
‘In both R.E. and cars, it is a buyer’s market. And if you wait a while, you’ll be able to get condo’s in L.V, Phoenix (Scottsdale is where I live now), Florida, SoCal, etc. for 25% of current asking. I kid you not. It is going to get ugly, but if you know what you are doing, then you will make a killing in the next five or so years…that is, as long as we dont implode as a nation from the coming recession/depression.’
That is most likely but part of a new stagflationary environment along with rising rents, costs of construction, debasement of the dollar is the end game so those deals will not last too long. Think of these financial weapons of mass destruction and how it is ravaging the RE economy and compare it too 9/11 and what happened to the travel industry. In the near term 24-36 months perhaps there will be tons of pain but going out five years those getting in at the darkest periods will be richly rewarded..
Anyone watch the latest episode of ‘Flip this house” today? Vegas flipper from late 2005 said he was going to make $200k on a 2500sf 4/2 pool home in Vegas bought for $327k . Last I checked he still owns it..Zillow values it at only $347k (probably way low) and no comps were much over $430k at the market peak last fall.
http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.htm?addrstrthood=2817+BRYANT+AVE&citystatezip=89102&mode=search
General Information
Parcel No. 162-05-612-015
Owner and Mailing Address
AHYO TROY C
2817 BRYANT AVE
LAS VEGAS NV 89102-2005
Location Address City/Township
2817 BRYANT AVE
LAS VEGAS
Assessor Description
MCNEIL EST UNIT #3
PLAT BOOK 10 PAGE 52
LOT 21 BLOCK 1
Recorded Document No.
* 20051115:01615
Estimated Lot Size and Appraisal Information
Estimated Size 0.21 Acres
Original Const. Year 1967
Last Sale Price
Month/Year 327750
11/05
Land Use RESIDENTIAL SINGLE FAMILY
Dwelling Units 1
Primary Residential Structure
Total Living Sq. Ft. 2239 Carport Sq. Ft. 0 Addn/Conv ADDITION
1st Floor Sq. Ft. 2239 Stories ONE STORY Pool YES
2nd Floor Sq. Ft. 0 Bedrooms 5 Spa NO
Basement SQ. FT. 0 Bathrooms 3 FULL Type of Construction FRAME STUCCO
Garage Sq. Ft. 441 Fireplace 1 Roof Type CONCRETE TILE
“Median prices of both new and existing homes climbed 3.2 percent in July. However, the new home median of $299,152 is down significantly from $337,395 in June. The median price for existing homes was $289,000, a scant $450 increase from the previous month.”
Let me think a minute…
If new home prices dropped by a whoppping 11% in one month and existing sale prices were nearly flat, what does that tell you about the developers?
Hint: Their old customers have a competitor with no bottom price. For them, margins are much higher (just think back to what new homes sold for two years ago), and the losses are a business deduction. For the homeowners, their losses are frightening.
Here in Canada, I’m still getting baited by bemused office mates to the tune of: “Still waiting for the bubble to burst? Ha ha.” So today I put a big article in the local news on the tanking US market on one of their desks. We’re not different. Especially not in Ponzi-fied Condocouver. I am just so tired of waiting for us to catch up to the American ARM-ageddon. Hurry up and ship this bust-up north.
LMFAO!!
and please export this bust to Europe as well … seperately waiting for some fresh winds here, it’s about 85% down to the historic trendline over here.
Whilst it is a bit old, this article http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079027
is good.
I must say, the Netherlands doesn’t look so extreme in comparison to many markets - have you got some better stats I could have a look at, nhz?
Regards,
Loafer
the number for the Netherlands is this statistic is misleading or just plain wrong. The article also mentioned that homes were extremely overvalued in the Netherlands (and in a separate Economist article from about the same time, only Ireland was more ‘overvalued’ as far as I remember). The number in the table is probably some goofy number from our National Realtors organisation (who always claim that Dutch homeprices are very affordable and constantly rising at a sustainable rate).
The most official number you can get is from the ‘Kadaster’, the official registry of home sales. This gives a + 270% pricegain for 1997-2005. In 1997, the Dutch bubble was already 5 years old.
Trouble with the stats (average sales price) for the Netherlands is that the type of homes sold has changed very much in the bubble years. Unlike the US market, new home sales are just a small part of total sales here and existing homes vary wildly. Many older big homes got split up into small ones (e.g. instead of one EUR 200K home, two years later you have four 250K homes and it seems like the gains are small). A huge number of old rental properties were dumped on the market at the end of the nineties (top of the housing mania here), pushing the average sales price down. Also, in the nineties, when the price of a home reached Hfl. 1 million (about EUR 450K) it was removed from the statistics because ‘those are clearly not for personal use’ (so, also skewing the average price downward).
Other example of these statistics problems: according to the ‘Kadaster’, the average homeprice for Netherlands increased 30% from 2001 to 2006 (the ‘post-bubble’ periode). But according to other statistics (numbers taken from appraisals etc.), the prices of individual homes increased an average 90% over this period. And if I look in my area the gain for individual homes is usually 100-150% for this period.
I have lots of records from the realtors starting around 1990. For all the homes in my area, the smallest appreciation over the last 15 years is +500-600% (usually unattractive apartments or small homes where something is really wrong). The more attractive homes have appreciated between 8x and 11x (700-1000%). There are some smaller villages where most of the homes are already at more than +1000%.
P.S.: I should add that some of these statistical flukes will probably mask the start of a downturn in RE, at least when one just looks at the (most published) national average/median sales price.
LOL. Well said, and nice move with the article on the desks. Your office mates won’t be laughing this time next year.
LOL. Well said, and nice move with the article on the desk. Your office mates won’t be laughing this time next year.
Think for a minute what this is going to look like as spring 2007 approaches and desparate sellers enter the market with little or no chance of EVER selling. EVER. The sheer, compounded, downward force on prices will be unbearable, unstoppable, and unimaginable.
There will be a deluge of panic sell orders with nary a buyer in sight - a textbook example of a market crash. The bottom keeps falling, never establishing itself because there is nobody on the other side to put a new bottom in. NOBODY! Think Enron stock as it plummeted - and that was in a market flush with liquidity and restrcited margins. No 100% financing BS.
This will be an elevator ride from hell where the bottom floor is never reached, and the rate of descent keeps increasing - like a freaked-out scene from a Stephen King movie that makes your stomach churn and your scalp burn. You can barely stand to watch, but you have to - it confirms what you’ve been thinking all along.
It’s too late to change course or correct the situation. The cable has been cut at the top floor. And like it or not, you’ll watch every horrific moment of your fellow human’s demise. Be thankful that you knew it was coming.
dd
Thanks.
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I agree. Great turn o’ phrase, digits.
“The bottom keeps falling, never establishing itself because there is nobody on the other side to put a new bottom in. NOBODY!”
Augh!
Made me jump, there…
The Plunge Protection Team will be the countries largest employer in 07.
38,000 condos going up in Las Vegas, holy $hit!!! As soon as I can get my wife to agree to move out west I know where I can find some very affordable housing.
I doubt I’m the poster you refer to, but yeah, that’s the generally accepted view.
However, it depends on the overall inventory of empty homes - which is something that we just don’t know. If there are enough of them, it won’t matter how inefficient the rent model, it will still be a net increase in rental inventory. If there aren’t enough of them, then as people go from borrower to renter, then net inventory of rentals will decrease.
Hard to say which way it will go.
I personally think that rents will increase somewhat, while house prices will tank, over a 3 year period. Then prices will stabilize (possibly drifting downward), while rents drift upward.
At some point in the distant future, it will again become cost efficient to buy vs. rent, just like when my dad bought a home. And then I’ll buy.