‘A Dramatic Turnaround, No Doubt About It’
Some housing bubble reports from California. “The foreshadowed bubble burst of the real estate market could soon be a reality with home sales dipping to their lowest level in 2 1/2 years nationwide. ‘The days of just putting a sign on the lawn and selling a house and getting four offers in two days for $10,000 over asking price are gone,’ said local seller, Don Weagle.”
“Realtor Diane White in Bakersfield said, ‘Sellers have in their head last year’s prices, and sellers really have to get last year out.’ She adds, ‘They really have to sell their home, today.’”
The Fresno Bee. “Existing home sales in Fresno County continued their downward slide in July, tumbling33.5% from a year previously. Values also were under pressure, with the median price of an existing house falling 5% to $297,840 from June. Competition among sellers is fierce in the Fresno area, so families wanting to move have to be realistic about pricing, agents say.”
“Sacramento-area home prices dipped lower last month, and sales tumbled by almost 45 percent from a year ago, according to a report. The region’s median home price dropped 2.4 percent to $378,590 in July, compared to the same month a year ago. West Sacramento had the area’s largest one-year drop at 16.5 percent, while home prices in Lincoln and Rocklin fell 13.8 percent and 12.5, respectively.”
“Santa Barbara County, from Santa Barbara to Santa Maria, had the largest one-year drop in home prices of about 17 percent.”
“Local foreclosure rates are skyrocketing as the real estate market continues to cool, and hundreds of Northern California families are suddenly seeing their homes going on the auction block.”
“At the Sacramento County Courthouse, it used to be that foreclosure auctions happened once a week. Now, several times a day homeowners are seeing their American dream turn into a nightmare. In Sacramento County during the second quarter of this year, the number of homes going into foreclosure stood at 1,866. That compares to 857 forclosures for the same time last year, an increase of 118 percent.”
“Mortgage experts said former owners are often in denial until someone shows up ordering them to move. So, does this mean the housing bubble has burst?”
The Ventura County Star. “Home inspector George Blair doesn’t need numbers to know that home sales have slowed. He sees it in his own business. ‘There are way fewer people looking for home inspectors now,’ he said. ‘It’s the slowest it’s ever been for this extended period of time.’ ‘Everybody is unbelievably slow right now,’ he said. ‘Houses are sitting on the market a really, really long time.’”
The LA Daily News. “The median price of a home sold last month in the San Fernando Valley was just 1.2 percent more than in July 2005, and 2.9 percent, or $18,000, lower than in the month before. Only 809 homes were sold this July, the fewest for that month since 1993, amid the last housing downturn.”
“‘Coming off of several years of very strong sellers’ markets, this looks shocking. And it is a dramatic turnaround, no doubt about it,’ said Steve White, president of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.”
The Pasadena Star News. “Los Angeles County home sales fell more than 25 percent last month compared with a year ago. ‘I think we’re seeing roughly the same amount of buyers that were out there before but about twice as much inventory,’ said James Joseph, (broker) in Whittier. ‘Buyers have more to choose from and are taking longer to make up their minds. That’s what’s causing the decline in sales.’”
“Joseph’s advice to would-be sellers was simple. ‘Call your Realtor and adjust your price so your house is the best deal in the area,’ he said. ‘If you don’t want to do that, do everyone a favor and take your property off the market. Unless you are a socialist, you believe in the market..and you have to be a realist.’”
I see the liberally biased MSM is finally reporting the bubble burst..just in time to have an affect on the November mid-term elections!
lol — yeah, no doubt all those millionaire chattermonkeys were the speculators who bought up all those condos and houses just with the intent of dumping them back on the market right in time for the mid-term election.
geez, it sure does suck how reality intrudes on idiot son’s bragging rights of the miracle of home ownership….
How come no one has called BS on this: ‘I think we’re seeing roughly the same amount of buyers that were out there before but about twice as much inventory,’
Ummm-uh…. same amount of “buyers” would equal FLAT sales — not a drop. Sir, you are a moron befitting your chosen trade. What does a rise in inventory and DROP in sales mean to you? It means “paper or plastic, M’am?”
More likely the question will be, “Fries with that order, Sir”
Susanne..I was going to commet on James Joseph, idiot broker…but you beat me to it!
“roughly the sae number of buyers, translates “lookers”…for buyers, and I think the spin sentence may work!
PS.. james Joeseph has some great advise.
.If you call him. He will make sure you have the lowest priced property on the market….you get the sale and he gets the “FAT commish”!
What does the “liberal” MSM have to do with reporting on the housing bubble? So, if FOX news isn’t reporting on the Bubble it must be a creation of the Liberal Elite!
Astounding logic.
I get e-mails from newsmax on daily basis, which reminds me I need to have them stop, but that is as far right wing a news organization as it gets. The latest updates I have been getting are all about the housing bubble bursting and a possible pending recession. Drudge (not exactly liberal) had a picture of a row of stucco houses plastered on his web page that said “Housing slowdown”.
Of the few things I like about the bubble is that it is non-partisan in who it effects. This thing is going to screw Republicans, Democrats, Socialist and Facist.
The more liberal/democratic areas of LA(Santa Monica, Venice, hollywood,ect), are as greedy and flip-minded when it comes to RE as the more conservative/republican-voting areas of orange county.
I see as many filppers doing teartowns and putting up fancy mecMansions in Santa monica as in Newport Beach.
and they all contributed to making it happen - republicans and democrats alike. they are all pigs at the same trough. just look at the FNM debacle.
Fox is Fair and Balanced…Ha Ha Ha Ha. Anybody who believes the media is anything but a cheerleading propaganda machine, serving the interests of the wealthy class, isn’t paying attention.
Dude… if your getting your info from the main stream media, your delvelopment and your intellect is retarded.
‘I see the liberally biased MSM is finally reporting the bubble burst..just in time to have an affect on the November mid-term elections! ‘
LOL!!! Perhaps Fox news will get one of their big lipped blondes to talk about the housing implosion between outrages and terror alerts!
This is getting too funny! Realtors in some markets are telling sellers to slash at least $100,000 of of the asking price right away!
Article at http://www.realestatedecline.com
We all knew this was coming…
You can bet if the Donkeys win in November the GOP kool-aid drinkers here will be howling in 2008 that everything was fine before the Dems took back Congress.
Yeah; that’s why I felt sorry for John Kerry, playing against a stacked deck. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. The US needs revolutionary changes; I just hope there isn’t a revolution that brings them.
This post got cut off too. Check back and I’ll try to get the whole thing up.
I have heard very little about the prospects for real estate in Southern Orange County. I just sold my 2,720 sq. ft. 5 bedroom place in Laguna Niguel and closed escrow August 3rd. I was thinking about purchasing something in the area around the end of the year, but I’m now reluctant to make such an investment as a result of this market taking a seemingly severe turn. My best thought is to rent for 1 year and then perhaps make a low ball offer on a suitable property for my soon to be blended family including 5 children. Does anyone think there might be a 20% reduction in Southern OC by christmas? Thanks for your feedback.
Maybe, but I doubt that much by the end of the year. I think the OC really goes off in ‘07 & ‘08, with the most dramatic drop in ‘07. This has a ways to play out here. Patience is key. Go make 5% on your money, rent a nice house at 50% of what the mortgage would be, and chill.
OC specuvestors still have the rent and “executive” rental fantasies in their heads. Here in SoCal the specuvestors are trying to hoard and corner all livable space. It’s not value but ransom. Unfortunately, they are making more land outside the sailing range of their pirate vessels.
“For quarter! For quarter! the spec-u-vestors cried.
The quarter that we gave them was to sink them in the tide…”
No, seriously, hang the flipper pirates at Tyburn. Make them walk the plank. Hole them below the waterline. Sink their bones to Davey Jones, &ca, &ca.
You can never have too much fun with pirate analogies.
Not to mention the pirates losing their ARMs…
…sorry just watched HOOK.
You are willing to take advice from anyone? Okay, buy now before you are priced out forever.
No, no, buy two! They only go up.
Mort’s advice won’t make you nearly the amount of money you deserve. Get the biggest loan you can get, interest only of course, sell everything else you own, and buy as many houses as you can. After all, you see it as an investment. If it is a good investment, why not do more?
You forgot buy before interest goes up! hehehehehehe
Apparently my comment didn’t make it, so I’ll try again. I would expect southern OC prices to remain ridiculously hight for at least a few more years to come, as sellers still remain in denial stage, thinking they can get any price. I am looking for a four bedroom for my family in San Clemente, but they’re too expensive of course, so I’m looking now to take us out of state. Article in the OC Register yesterday had on the front page, about people in their twenties and thirties leaving OC in droves. My wife and I will be joining them with our children.
Any chance for a link, or highlights from that article?
Unfortunately the article was in the print edition only. I would have missed it myself, except that my wife and I had some time to kill while the kids were away. The article basically said that those between the ages of 24 and 35 are fleeing for more affordable housing, and this will have detrimental effects on Orange County in the future since that age group generally creates the children and fills the jobs…
Read about An exodus of O.C.’s young adults.
Here is the article
Oh, so you’re saying everyone bought with 20% down and fixed positive amortizing mortgages?
Methinks there aren’t enough snorkels to go around.
Here it is: An exodus of O.C.’s young adults
Greg, we have already mostly beaten to death the amount of time the bust will take.
I think the consensus is somewhere between 36-58 months. There are some posters who say faster and others who say we are looking at Japan style deflation for 15+ years.
Congrats on selling, a bit of a risk but could be a huge payoff.
I am disinterested in buying real estate until middle of 08, then I will start looking.
Taking advice from strangers who may or may not have your best interest at heart is partly what got us into this mess in the first place. Greg has made it as far as a bubble blog, he is obviously hep to the fact that something is going on. Not to mention that he is almost bragging that he sold a house, if he ever even had a house, that is. Can he not look at the data and come to a conclusion for himself? Yeah, congrats on selling, maybe you should take your $10 billion and buy peach pit futures until this thing blows over, mmm kay?
Mort’s feeling a little salty today. That is OK, I get that way too.
Take it easy on a newcomer. We do need new blood on the blog. I don’t get the sense that he is that trollish.
Okay Sunset, (Sheepishly kicks at the ground…) I’m sorry, Greg, it’ll never happen again. (Group hug)
Great minds think alike. I mentioned June ‘08 as my strike date. I also think 2007 is going to be the bloodiest year of the bubble burst.
If the bust will take the estimated 3-5 years, why buy in 2008? Prices will still be falling and you’ll be catching a falling knife. What not wait until they’ve clearly bottomed and have started going up a bit. There’s no way to predict the exact bottom, but it will be fairly obvious once it’s passed.
I’m hoping against hope that the falling knife will be a guillotine blade, thanks to the ungodly numbers of people who will be forced to sell by adjustable/option ARM emergencies.
We already have all-time record inventories, and the big wave of re-sets hasn’t even gotten started yet. Houses are so far overpriced, and the market is so dependent on exotic financing, that once it dries up, there will be no way for these houses to sell without severe price cuts — cuts that take prices back to the level where it’s possible for moderately-affluent people to buy them using traditional financing.
There is no way that there are not going to be literally millions of people who will have outlasted their staying power by late 2007 at the latest, and will be forced to sell. That’s not counting the foreclosures and REOs, which banks (which will have an even better eye on trends than individual sellers) will be absolutely desperate to get off their hands before THEY start running into cash-flow problems, from the cost of maintaining a surging amount of foreclosed inventory.
The upshot is, I believe prices will fall fast and hard throughout 2007 and early 2008, reaching their long-term fundamental value relatively quickly. I believe that thereafter, they will continue to bleed a little value each year as the market continues to be shell-shocked about real estate, but prices shouldn’t drop too far past the floor of the long-term average. What should happen is that they’ll drop somewhat below it, and stay somewhat below it for long enough to mean-revert the excessive appreciation of the past few years.
In other words: brutal drop next year, followed by a couple of years of single-digit downward dribbling, followed by a few more flat years, followed by resumed appreciation.
To answer your question, there are other reasons for ownership than capturing appreciation. I would rather live in a house than an apartment, and if you try to live in a rented house, there’s an excellent chance (as I’ve found more than once) your landlord will decide to sell/move back in/raise the rent to the rafters, and I’m heartily sick of forced moves.
I’ll gladly take a couple of years of negative paper appreciation to avoid the insecurity of renting, assuming I can own for a reasonable multiplier of what renting woudl cost. I won’t realize any actual losses — I won’t be going anywhere — and in the long run, California real estate is a decent investment as long as you don’t buy at the top.
I wish I could just buy a reasonably-priced house with a reasonable likelihood of reasonable future appreciation, as a dwelling, not as an investment vehicle — but this isn’t Utah, it’s California, where the get-rich-quick boom-and-bust cycle has been ingrained into the popular mind since the Gold Rush, and you either have to put up with the hassle of it all, or move. Which I’d rather not.
the housing bubble in Northern Calif has been going on for a good 30 years. Homes built in the early 70’s selling in the mid 20K range are now priced in the mid-600K. Southern Calif was alway laging the north until the tech bubble burst but certainly has made up for lost time during the last 5 years. Japan is a good model to what we can expect in the USA. Big Ben (FED) is now making noise about lowering interest rates again, notice that Japan lowered interest rates to Zero and it took 15 years to get the housing market moving. Housing will be a suckers market for quite sometime.
The housing futures market for LA, is calling for prices to be down 4.1% between now and next May.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/delayed_quote.html?ProductSymbol=LAX&ProductFoiType=FUT&ProductVenue=G&ProductType=hng
My strong feeling is that’s just the beginning, this could take several years to play out for what I expect to be 25-30% declines at least. You need to revamp your time horizon, and avoid compressing time on something like this. There should be absolutely no rush to buy, you are in a fortunate spot as is.
is anyone here watching these futures? this is the first post I’ve seen about them.
Greg—count your blessings.
Give the profits money to the church, rather than throwing it into a SINK whole in O.C.
I am sure they will do something good with the money.
The bubble you hear popping is from 1913 …so the bottom is closer to 2012 OR 2018!
I can’t think of a more worthless sinkhole than “the” church (wonder which one he has in mind) - sorry, readers, he brought it up! And another pseudo-clever blame-the-Fed guy with the 1913 reference.
It’s going to take a few years. But renting right now is THE BEST arbitrage opportunity. Wait it out, let your cash earn interest.
Can’t see South OC falling off as much as other Scal regions. Too many hi-end hi-tech corporations setting up shop in that area, plus SOC is relatively tight as far as available sfh inventory stock. The prices will fall more slowly compared to the rest of OC/LA county. Cannot see S OC falling 20% overall by chirstmas, only the most outrageously overpriced zips such as Some Newport beach zips( homes 1.5 miilion or more).
The SOC is relatively better off as far as having a decent and expanding hi-paying jobs sector than the rest of LA/OC with exception of South Bay and the LA westside. This will keep S oc region from doing a sudden deep nosedive. I still think that Most of LA county and the IE is the really overhyped/overpriced market and they face far greater risks of steep declines than the OC.
This is just my humble opinion, just comparing relative strengths of economic regions throughout scal. IMHO SOC might fall 10% by end of year overall.
Copy your post before you click “add comment”, that way you can paste it back in the comment box if it fails to post. i had to try three times on my last post. You may not want to be that persistant, though.
“Realtor Diane White in Bakersfield said, ‘Sellers have in their head last year’s prices, and sellers really have to get last year out.’ She adds, ‘They really have to sell their home, today.’”
From the Realtores : It has gone from “Buyers must buy today or you will be priced out to “They really have to sell their home, today.”
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH !!!!!
“Santa Barbara County, from Santa Barbara to Santa Maria, had the largest one-year drop in home prices of about 17 percent.”
Ouch! That would be $170K off the household balance sheet for anyone who bought a $1m home a year back in beautiful Santa Barbara. It must be nice to be rich enough to throw that much money away.
In case you want to know what a home like that looks like.
“Price slashed $119K below what seller paid one year ago! This is an incredible opportunity! This Signature II home is now priced like a Harvest condo. Minutes to the beach, & UCSB. Gorgeous home with 3BD, loft office, wood staircase, soaring ceilings, customized finishes, beautiful kitchen. Master suite features FP, mountain views, double sinks, Jacuzzi tub, separate shower & giant walk-in closet.”
http://real-estate.newspress.com/listing?mls=06-3855&table=sbaor
That is only 11.9 percent off what the seller paid, but I suppose he many have to drop the price another 5.1 percent or more in order to find a buyer who is willing to catch a falling knife
That is a $329k house if I ever saw one…
Note to seller: Maybe lay off the crack pipe until the ‘Signature II’ gets sold. I know $119k PLUS COSTS upside down (yikes-a-saurus!) must be painful…but so is owning a ravenous alligator as a pet. $lash that Price Again, baby!
It sold for 550k brand new in 2000.
Boy what an idiot to pay that kind of money for that place. It is not surprising things got this far out of control with the seemingly endless supply of stupid people paying stupid prices. When I see their desperate attempts to unload the POS for less than they paid, I cannot help but give a chuckle. I mean, what did they expect? What is oftentimes so amusing, is the fact that most of these people have owned (figuratively of course) the place a year or less! No sympathy here for the FB’s, none whatsoever. Another one bites the dust heh heh….another one bites the dust.
Goleta ain’t Santa Barbara!
Well, at least that place is pretty new, which relatively rare for SB (still ridiculous though). Check out this $1M dump (BTW, which is $52K lower than a few weeks ago)
Wasn’t there even a slightly bearish person on this blog that insisted Santa Barbara was different? Everywhere will fall, but not Santa Barbara
Umm… that’s $anta Barbara for the laypeople.
Santa Maria is an absolute craphole wothout any industry other than agriculture and laundrimats (?sp). However, sellers still want $200-250 per sqft for their SSB’s - unbelieveable.
These prices are basically due to it being an exurb for Santa Barbara, who house prices are beyond all comprehension. Live in SB long enough, and Santa Maria starts to look pretty tempting price-wise.
“Values also were under pressure, with the median price of an existing house falling 5% to $297,840 from June.”
But, I thought prices were sticky on the way down?
Just imagine if prices weren’t sticky…
I don’t have to imagine it…
“At the Sacramento County Courthouse, it used to be that foreclosure auctions happened once a week. Now, several times a day homeowners are seeing their American dream turn into a nightmare”
ARM Resets and the imminent flood of defaults is what will be driving the housing market decisively lower, and fast. Expect quarter-over-quarter numbers to begin to show price drops in the high single digits once the REOs get rolling. The plateau has a steep drop at the end.
It’s getting wacky in CA. Check out this quote from the Daily News link:
‘At St. Peter’s Pier in Canoga Park, only one statue remained in a green box that read, ‘Faith can move mountains … and homes!’ But don’t expect that $9.95 purchase to add thousands of dollars to the sale of your home, said store owner Hal Storey. ‘You can’t list your house $10,000 over the market and just use one of these and pray it will sell,’ Storey said. ‘Sometimes,’ his wife, Barb, chimed in, ‘God says, `No.’
GETTING whacky in California? The land of fruits and nuts?
True- 90% of the worlds almonds are produced in Central Ca.
I have quite a chunk of my net worth invested in an plantation timber/agriculture manager. There are tax implications here in Australia.
Their biggest single agricultural segment is almonds, with 2 arguments.
First is that we are Southern Hemisphere, so we get the counter-cyclical benefit. That doesn’t apply to nuts as much as things like olives, but it’s still a factor.
Second is that they expect Californian production to tail away some because some trees aren’t being replanted when they reach the end of their economic life. Maybe there’s also some cases of groves being replaced with housing?
Sorry no more fruits and nuts, we plowed the groves under to make way for condos.
so now it’s the land of Cons and D’ohs?
the newlywed, the half dead, and the crazy in the head
speaking of Scal being the land du jour of fruits and nuts heres a couple items to illustrate what we are talking about, which take place in the immigrant paradise known as Santa Ana, CA:
I passed a Mex-fast food joint going thru the center of the city which called itself:Tijuana Tacos.
I was stopping in a strip mall in the most ragged run down part of SA when i saw a recently purchased gun-metal gray Hummer driven by a Hispanic immigrant attempting to park in a compact-only space. This in the most immigrant- infested ragged section of SA. The immigrants are sure raking in the dough in Scal.
Some idiot was putting up a new house(it was still timber skelton only) along 1st st in SA, which is the nastiest grimiest immigrant strip in SA.
I do not want to pound on SA as being a 100% all immigrant cesspool, The very southern area of SA(10%) is
still unscathed.
you used the term “immigrant” 6 times in your post, and “illegal” zero times. There are millions of decent hardworking legal immigrants who come here and contribute and educate their children and make this a better place. And then there are the ones you describe in your post. They are criminals. There’s a difference.
Yes, there are many immigrants who went thru proper legal channels to come here legally, but that would not be the case for SA’s Hispanic immigrant population, many of whom have come across illegally and are here illegally, as well as throughout LA and Scal. In fact they are here in LA illegally in far greater numbers than anyone can imagine. A great swath of LA city is for all intents and purposes Latino illegal immigrant territory, with the unofficial sanction of our local, state and federal politicians. They have beem coming in illegally in droves last 30 years, and virtually every low-level/ working class job here in LA is done by illegals or their ist gen offspring.
Many of these original illegal crossers have been in Scal 10-20 or more years and have since gotten green gards, raised families, brought homes, and are interwoven into the Scal mainstream, though their allegiance would still be primarily with their home countries.
The illegal immigration issue is a thorny one here in SCal-which promises no easy solutions. The stupidest idea is mass deportations, which will not happen, period. The recrossing rate for deported illegals is 70-80% Hell, the Fed gov’t cannot even muster the cojones to put up a really strong fence
across the entire border.
only because we have been p*ssies for decades and have not addressed the problem properly. Now these people are so entrenched that some sectors would have the equivalent of an amputation if the US finally does something effective….
I see a booming business in California soon to emerge…
Astrologers who make readings for your house: “Your house was completed when Saturn was rising in Carpricorn so you should price you house at X”
Shamans who do “Sale Dances”
Anyone else?
P.S. If this REALLY happens…It Was MY Idea! (I will keep this post for future reference…
)
“All demons have been exercised from this lovely 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home by a professional. Live ghost and evil spirit free”
Unfortunately this curse can only to be lifted by a licensed realtwhore. Kind of the same situation that the pirates were in in Pirates of the Carribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. lol They’ll need to spend eternity giving back all the money they stole and correcting the imbalances in the financial sector, including derivatives. Not an easy task.
Shirley, you jest, but place that ad on craigslist and you might get a few takers.
Sale of St. Joseph statues on e-bay, the new “beanie babies” of 2006?
How about sacrificing a realtor? That should make God happy…
“The Wicker Man”-style, maybe?
(It never occurred to me until this minute that there was a pun in the title; that was one scary film.)
Ironic, asking for divine intervention for a GF so you can stick itup his ass. Yeah, that’s gonna work. God works in mysterious ways, but not that mysterious.
“God please send me a bigger fool than myself that I can then hose over with a really stupid purchase. I promise to be a good boy. Amen”
Andy,
Well exactly. Lord, I’m a greedy SOB that has contempt for doing honest work so I figured I could score big in this housing thing then kick back and drink Corona’s for the rest of my life. But I’m really in a fix right now so if you could see your way to finding some greater fool and send him my way I’d sure appreciate it! I’ll be good until the next bubble that promises instant wealth without sacrifice comes along, I promise!
Yours truly,
FB
Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a color TV ?
Dialing For Dollars is trying to find me.
I wait for delivery each day until three,
So oh Lord, won’t you buy me a color TV ?
Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a night on the town ?
I’m counting on you, Lord, please don’t let me down.
Prove that you love me and buy the next round,
Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a night on the town ?
Looking for the proverbial bigger bucket of money and bigger box of stupid to get a buyer today.
Perhaps someone can come up with the patron saint of bargain hunting and fair value, so we buyers can sneak into front yards and bury them facing the street, right-side up.
Amen
Someone needs to point this guy to Luke 12:15-20.
“Sometimes God says ‘No”.”
I detect a motto.
And sometimes He says “Go f*ck yourself.”
No, sometimes God says you f@cked yourself and I’m not gonnado anything about it.
Remember the story:
A deeply faithful guy is caught in a flood. He is not concerned. A boat floats by; “Need any help?” “Nope, God will provide.” A helicopter arrives; “Need resuce?” “Nope, God is my savior.” Guy drowns. In the everafter the guy asks god;”Why didn’t you save me?” God replies; “Dummy, who do you think sent the boat and helicopter?”
God doesn’t need to intervene when we are meeting out His will without a push.
LOL
No surprise, they’re just a bunch of simpletons who’ve switched one magic belief (housing only goes up) for another (a buried piece of plastic with cause a sale). Logic means nothing to them.
oops, “will cause a sale”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOy4AMMMcC4U&refer=home
” Bernanke, Fed chairman since February, takes the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, podium today after two days of reports showing home sales and prices retreating after a five-year boom spurred by the strategy he advocated.
The results of that policy are now complicating his task as he attempts to maintain growth while wrestling down prices. Given real estate’s importance to the economy, the Fed may have to hold interest rates steady even as inflation exceeds Bernanke’s comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent, excluding food and energy. ”
Interesting.
Wrong. Time to take our medicine–inflation is worse than recession, and we’re long overdue to rid the excesses and waste.
Ah, the powerful OZ. What if the FED doesn’t control the long bond?
The results of that policy are now complicating his task as he attempts to maintain growth while wrestling down prices. Given real estate’s importance to the economy, the Fed may have to hold interest rates steady even as inflation exceeds Bernanke’s comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent, excluding food and energy. ”
How long do you think it will be before the Fed includes house prices in the CPI? Inflation problem solved.
Fresno County continued their downward slide blah blah.
Values also were under pressure, blah blah.
Competition among sellers is fierce in the Fresno areablah blah,
- Fresno and Sacramento are the Inland Empire of the North.
They are doomed with hugh declines coming. What logic could have led them to believe the market could support this madness?
“Prices only go up”
“California isn’t producing any more land”
“Everyone want to live here”
“It’s a sunshine tax, everyone has accepted it”
“Better hurry and buy at any price before it’s too late to get in”
…
Need any more “logic”? Contact the CAR.
Interesting comparison. In that case, I estimate IE is lagging behind its Northern cousin by 9 months to a year. While Sac and Fresno are leading the downward slide already, there still seem to be plenty of fools who haven’t gotten the message yet in IE… In numbers released a few months back, the largest Y-o-Y gains in the state were still occurring in the IE/lower San Joaquin area.
I surmise this is due to location/affordability differences in these regions. For example, it is much more common to live in IE and commute to Riverside/LA county, than it is to live in Sac/Fresno and commute to Bay Area.
So, when buyers haven’t been able to buy in LA/OC/SD, they are more willing to “settle” in IE/Riverside than a Bay Area resident would be willing to transplant to Sac/Fresno.
Commuting could get ugly in the next year or so. Saudi Arabia said that if Iran is attacked expect crude oil to jump to $200 per barrel. Both Israel and the US said in Aprial that they felt that they had a one year window to ’solve’ this problem with Iran.
My brother is a subprime loan broker and through the last 3 years he would tell me of the crazy no doc loans that he did in the IE. Mostly illegals with one legal on title that had no intention on living in the residence.
“My brother is a subprime loan broker and through the last 3 years he would tell me of the crazy no doc loans that he did in the IE. Mostly illegals with one legal on title that had no intention on living in the residence. ”
I did a scan on the CAR site showing the JUly median sales prices for LA county by community. Here are some selected communities-prices in thousands followed by YOY increase from july 2005:
Compton $399,000 24.8 %
huntington park 431 ” 19.7
La Puente 460 ” 13.6
lynwood 479 ” 23.3
san fernando 512 ” 13.9
south gate 460 ” 19.5
wilmington 470 ” 10.6
Belflower 519 ” 22.1
These communities are all DECLINING OLDER RUN DOWN INNOR LA COUNTY HEAVILY IMMIGRANT COMMUNITIES, WITH LARGE SECTIONS WHICH RESEMBLE TIJUANA. YET LOOK AT THE HOME PRICE RUNUPS. WHO IS BUY THESE HOMES. YES, IT IS IMMIGRANTS WITH NO DOC, STATED, I/O NEGATIVE AM SEVERAL FAMILIES,ONE LEGAL ON TITLE WHO HAS 10 “RELATIVES”. I KNOW THAT THERE IS A BRISK BUSINESS IN LA WITH HISPANIC REALTORS PUSHING THE SUICIDE LOANS TO GET IMMIGRANT HISPANICS TO BUY HOMES. THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING IN THE IE AS WELL. WE WILL SEE IF THIS HUGE VOLUME OF IMMIGRANTS PROPPING UP RE PRICES IN LA WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF OVER NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.
“Interesting comparison. In that case, I estimate IE is lagging behind its Northern cousin by 9 months to a year. While Sac and Fresno are leading the downward slide already, there still seem to be plenty of fools who haven’t gotten the message yet in IE… In numbers released a few months back,”
I think the IE will be a total “Stalingrad” the new yard stick to measure RE slaughter. Given the fullness of time, I would guess more than one required text book will come from this mess. It is pre-ordained. It will happen. Nothing can change events.
Tens of thousands of contracts, perhaps tens of tens of thousands of contracts signed. Not counting the Heloc and the rest of the funny money loans…. The deed is done (pun intened).
I went to some new home models about 2 years ago. They were so arrogant! “Fill OUT the Paper!” we will call you! JUST Get in line! Now! PRICE??? nevermind We will let you know, when WE decide. When will the home be complete? WHAT do YOU Think???…. DUH!!!……….When it is done that’s when….Goodbye, you may leave NOW!
A flashback to 2004 … apologies to Memento …
I have to believe in market fundamentals outside of the bubble.
I have to believe that market fundamentals still have meaning.
Even if nobody esle seems to remember them.
I have to believe that when my eyes are closed and I’m in my cramped little apartment, the market fundamentals are still there.
Do I believe the market fundamentals are still there?
[Back to the present]
Umm, yeah, there still out there.
We all need market fundamentals to remind ourselves that insanity won’t rule the day.
Today’s no different.
Apologies for the non sequitur. Not sure why one of my favorite quotes came to mind reading the thread of comments. Guess its just that kind of day.
“Fresno and Sacramento are the Inland Empire of the North.
They are doomed with hugh declines coming. What logic could have led them to believe the market could support this madness”
At least the central valley has agriculture. The IE dosen’t have squat!
OT… Now that it’s obvious, everyone will beat it to death. I wonder where writers like this were the last couple years. Let the game begin.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/real_estate/pluggedin_tully.fortune/index.htm
I posted the same thing.. hehehe Interesting article it is. So instead of soft landing - crash and burn it is.
That’s exactly what I thought when I read this. It’s too late to inform the people so they can make a defensice move at this point. They needed a precautionary article 1-2 years ago if they really wanted to help people. Now they are just rubbing it in their face.
The more often they say it, the faster prices will fall. Open the floodgates!
Shawn Tully was/is a housing bear since the early phase of the bubble. He also wrote a Fortune Magazine article where he was arguing for a real estate correction against Jon Birger back in 2004.
Read about Getting real about the real estate bubble
.
“Forget about a crash, they assured homeowners. Expect a “soft landing” where your three-bedroom colonial in Larchmont or Larkspur not only holds onto its huge price gains, but keeps appreciating at a “normal,” “sustainable” rate of 6 percent or so into the sunset.
Americans wanted to believe, and they did. Now, the giant popping noise you’re hearing is the sound of yesterday’s myths exploding like balloons pumped up with too much hot air.
The newest sign that the myth-makers were spectacularly wrong is the data on existing home sales for July. Nationwide, median prices rose .9 percent.”
I could see a Mythbusters episode dedicated to behavioral finance (aka Manias).
Read about Real Estate’s Crash Landing.
“The real estate market will not land soft or hard, it will crash and burn. Those who did not have the foresight to bail out may be faced with a distinct shortage of parachutes.
The glut of homes on the market, the highest level since 1993, doesn’t even begin to tell the story. Homes were far more affordable back in 1993 than they are today, and there were significantly more renters (who had not yet entered the market) who could potentially buy them. Today, home affordability is at an all time low, and just about anybody who could buy one already has. For those who think the inventory of unsold homes is high now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”
I won’t touch a coded link, but I love the quote! And it is absolutely dead-on. Affordability in the early ’90’s was very high - a sign of a bottom. All that fire power, sitting there, afraid to buy. It is exactly the opposite now, even with the “reductions” we are seeing. It will be a long ways downward to get back to affordability.
Coded? That’s an un-redirected, direct link.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1156523718.php
Or are you even more paranoid:
http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1156523718.php
Melody’s links are work-safe. It is a CNN/Fortune article.
Oops, the one above was CNN/Fortune.
This one is goldseek.com. Peter Schiff.
Peter Schiff informed me, through his various sites, appearances, interviews, etc., about the bubble before I had even found this site. I like listening to him (FSN) and reading him.
““The real estate market will not land soft or hard, it will crash and burn.”
The three times, three cycles, the 32 years I have owned property in So Calif. This has been the fact period.
We were able to accomplish this with out all the “funny money” of all types in the past. This time it IS diffrent! I do not know what all the funny money will do to the equation this time. My best guess is gasoline + fire…….. hot on the way up and hot as hell on the way down.
From the Pasadena Star News:
The median price for an existing single family home still rose 6.8 percent to $581,140. But sales were off 25.6 percent, according to the California Association of Realtors.
To say still rose is a criminal statement by the CAR.
Median prices (for what that is worth) may still be above last years peak, but the CAR knows that home prices are clearly dropping now.
Median price statistics can be very misleading. Movements in median price from month to month or from year to year can be attributed to changes in the data mix (such as sales at the low end of spectrum dropping at a higher proportional rate) as much as real shifts in the overall value of the market. I sometimes wonder how many people really understand that.
Could be any number of factors that distort the reality. In this case it’ my belief that there are a lot more price declines at the high end that are attracting buyers so relative activity is simply at a higher price point. But, the actual prices have probably dropped well in excess of 10% from last year’s comps on like properties, to induce the transactions.
Knife catching at the high end first, where many sellers are looking to preserve their gains and still have the equity cusion to take the 10%-15% hit ($100K+ reductions look attractive), since that was where the most $$$$ was made on the way up. I would imagine there’s a lot less cushion at the low end so less of an opportunity to drop price and walk away without leaving cash at closing.
Getting ugly now. The tidal wave of defaults will burst this bubble open in a big way.
There are 9500 dwellings in Palos Verdes, CA zip 90274 and last week 6 of them closed
sold prices under a million are some very old condo’s and those above are some very old homes.
From 8/15/2006 to 8/22/2006, there were 6 homes sold in ZIP code 90274 for an average price of $1,039,667.
1) $770,000 on Cottonwood Cir
2) $270,000 on Dunwood Rd
3) $2,199,000 on Granvia Altamira
4) $1,900,000 on Palos Verdes W Dr
5) $719,000 on Via Granada
6) $380,000 on W Estates Ln
Palos verde is toast! At those prices, who would not prefer to buy a comparably priced MCMansion or Condo in Malibue, Santa Monica, or Pacific Palisades, which IMHO are far superior locations as far as access to superb Recreational beaches and parks, access to cultural amenities and urban nightlife, closer to hi-paying jobs, ect. Palos Verde is BORING AND LAID BACK, UNLESS YOU LIKE LIVING IN QUIET SECLUSION WITH THE OCCASIONAL EXCITING SHOPPING EXCURSION TO LUNADA MAY(bORING!!!).
PV HAS ROCKY HEADLANDS AND ROCKY SHORELINES, NOT GREAT RECREATIONAL ASSETS . USED TO GO TO THOSE PLACES LONG TIME AGO(PT FERMIN, ECT), BUT CAN’T IMAGINE GOING THERE TODAY.
Palos verde is toast! At those prices, who would not prefer to buy a comparably priced MCMansion or Condo in Malibue, Santa Monica, or Pacific Palisades, which IMHO are far superior locations as far as access to superb Recreational beaches and parks, access to cultural amenities and urban nightlife, closer to hi-paying jobs, ect. Palos Verde is BORING AND LAID BACK, UNLESS YOU LIKE LIVING IN QUIET SECLUSION WITH THE OCCASIONAL EXCITING SHOPPING EXCURSION TO LUNADA MAY(bORING!!!).
PV HAS ROCKY HEADLANDS AND ROCKY SHORELINES, NOT GREAT RECREATIONAL ASSETS . USED TO GO TO THOSE PLACES LONG TIME AGO(PT FERMIN, ECT), BUT CAN’T IMAGINE GOING THERE TODAY.
Read about Economy likely to falter, not fall, says expert.
“The housing market is slowing, as everyone knows. But the interesting aspect here is that I don’t see this having a major effect on consumers in the sense that a lot of people will have to sell their houses, creating a housing implosion. What is typically the case is that a decline in the housing market is a reflection of some underlying economic phenomenon. In 1987, the housing market in New York City was white hot but collapsed soon after. This was a reflection of the ‘87 stock market crash, which created a massive consolidation in the financial services sector. That sector, in turn, had been a source of tremendous employment growth in the city.
That said, I think so far the economy has been settling but not sinking. And as long as that continues, people will be able to adjust. There are some debt structures out there that are disturbing. People are taking terrible risks with adjustable rate mortgages, where you can get the sudden shock of big debt obligations. We should also be aware that a huge financial-services sector has grown up around the housing boom, and that is at risk as well. It’s not just the home builders; it’s the ancillary services, the mortgage services, the real estate service and the various types of debt services that also could suffer. We have to be mindful about that, because bank balance sheets are heavy with real estate assets.”
Nice and easy… nice and easy. They’re acting like they’re walking on egg shells.
The Inland Empire bristles at the comparison twixt it and SactoFresBakerPalmLanVictorsburg.
I-5, CA-99, I-15. Corridors of pain.
“The Inland Empire bristles at the comparison twixt it and SactoFresBakerPalmLanVictorsburg.
I-5, CA-99, I-15. Corridors of pain. ”
THE i-15 FROM tEMECULA all way to cajon pass will soon be one gigantic sprawling urban megalopolis no diffrent than going thru the 405. After a short run over the pass, just like at the sepulveda pass, the urban sprawl will continue up past barstow. All those massive housing tracts sprouting off the i-15 will require continued massive increases in scal population growth, which will no doubt come from the continuing massive immigration waves into Scal. No longer will the traveler to Las Vegas enjoy the views of Dairy Pastureland or desert scrub till they get well past Barstow. It will be only the endless monotony of brown tiled stuccoed tract homes and vast warehouses and shopping malls.
South OC prices ain’t gonna fall that fast, sorry to say. This mess will take years to untangle, and it will occur once the denial stage is over, that stage when sellers still believe that they can get any price they ask.
I considered moving my family into a purchase in San Clemente eventually, to get us out of the rental, but we’d need at least four bedrooms for all the kids, and of course, the price tag is out of the question. Now I’m looking into moving out of state, and I think the kids will have it better that way anyhow…
Don’t apologize, you’re wrong anyway.
I hope I am wrong. But I doubt it. I work in escrow in south OC. I see it every day. The denial level is astounding.
It will fall faster than you’ve ever imagined. As Auction Heaven predicts… next month will be a killer.
Denial may well turn to panic. If you like Cali just keep your powder dry.
The median for Cali is now $567,360 (July 2006); the median was $568,730 in August 2005. We very likely will be negative YOY for all of Cali when the August numbers are reported next month. How long did that take in the last down cycle? 3+ years. Seems to be happening pretty fast to me.
The great thing about markets is they work with or without the higher brain functions.
I don’t discourage people from moving away.
Please do, it is the one more way to crash the RE market here.
“South OC prices ain’t gonna fall that fast, sorry to say. This mess will take years to untangle, and it will occur once the denial stage is over, that stage when sellers still believe that they can get any price they ask. ”
You would be suprised how fast and steady they can fall. You are right about it taking years to “unwind”. OC is filled with funny money and fast money, all show and no go. About a year ago I scanned a front page of the Valley News saying over 90% of the new loan being written in OC were of the 80/20 No money down type.
Granted OC is OC and the best will go down last and come back first…. but it will be stomped period!
Did you see the graphs of who is leaving OC and who is staying? The young, recent grads are leaving, and boomers and immigrants are replacing them.
Eradication of the middle class conceded, but it is a weird predictor for future home valuations.
How did you get the KGET story? There must be another non-believer in Bakersfield. Welcome to the home of the TRUTH!
OT, but help a dumb contracotr out here…I posted on the OCR blog as a certain gentlemens wife (Mrs intrepid) I was was accused of “sadism”
Is that good or bad? I just want to know how to respond to that bag of wind there.
he he
okay, ‘dumb contracotr.’
You are SITTING IN FRONT OF A COMPUTER. LOOK IT UP.
Just an idea, ‘he he.”
easy there…you missed my humor
I have gone back and forth on OCR’s blog.
Jon does a decent job.
But as far as the bulls that post there, this is my motto.
Don’t try to teach a mule to play the violin. It annoys the mule and sounds bad.
Post at OCR for the silent majority of readers and allow them to make up their own mind.
‘Sadism’ refers to a practitioner of Sadie Hawkins’ Day. In the current context it refers to someone trying to revive 50s comic strip nostalgia .
I’m assuming you are a male “contracotr” posing as some guy’s wife?? Uhhhhhhhhhh… okay.
I could be wrong. I’ve ran into some damn good female contracotrs. About the sadism… there’s gonna be a lot of pissed off FB’s “daytraders” looking to lash out in the next couple of years. You might want to enjoy your Schadenfreude in private.
Amen! Amen!
As Getstucco has said, there is a reason why he is Getstucco and I am Sunsetbeachguy.
What’s going to happen to inventory now that the MSM is on the Bubble Bandwagon?
I hope I am wrong. But I doubt it. I work in escrow in south OC. I see it every day. The denial level is astounding.
How is the escrow business? With OC volumes down 40% I assume not that great?
Business is very slow. Sales are so far down, and the summer is over, so…. it’s all over.
yet prices won’t come down quickly? Like you said… “the denial level is astounding”.
Excellent point!
Don’t get me wrong. I’d love to see an overnight crash in prices. I just don’t think it will happen. As much as we disagree with the extreme position of those that say no crash will happen (if such people exist anymore), I think it’s erronous to believe that those trying to move property are going to simply give up without a fight. They’ll keep their overpriced trash bins until borderline bankruptcy. Then they’ll be forced out.
I have stated that many times. This is going to be slow and painful. 0-5% up this year in Ca. 5-10% down next year. Then the real pain begin in 2008, IMO, 10-15% DOWN!
If your prediction comes true, I’ll personally drive to Bakersfield {ugh} and pick the cotton or almonds or whatever it is you grow in your fields.
LOL. Just buy me a nice ICE COLD BEER!
Mmmm… beer
I wish I could be a fly on the wall of some realtor offices….
I stopped by the Keller Williams realty office yesterday. If you were a fly on one those walls you would have marvelled at the swankyness of the place. You would also have noticed that the only activity taking place was the rubbing together of your own legs. Not a sole there, except for the receptionist.
The echo was spooky. The sales manager was not even in the office.
“soul” that is.
Do flies’ legs rub together?
Read about Get the inside story on what the media is covering and covering up. Danny dissects the daily news media coverage .
This will be my next video to watch. I totally agree with his views. The trailer is a good watch.
The producer runs a “real estate development company” WTF?
Good question. It shows how most have lived beyond their means and we’re going to pay a dear price….
At what time are people going to take personal responsibility for their actions? You don’t need to eat out 2 or 3 times a week. You don’t need that new car when you can be a used one for $5000. You don’t need a $500k house. You don’t need the LCD tv. This movie looks like it is trying to make it a class issue (the middle class has to go into debt to survive) for the consumer debt when it is a responsiblity issue. Get real.
What views? The conspiracy thoery views that the big bad lender forced me to take their $$$$$ at high interest rates so I could pay for my $15K riding mower and Hummer? Blame game.
Top story was the “housing slump.” Not only was it a top story, they spent about 5 minutes discussing inventory, hot/cold marekts, and even mentioned “bubble bursting.”
I think any person that has been following the market will realize that summer 2006 is the death of the housing bubble. Now we will see:
*People flipping out when prices drop.
*ARMs, I/O, and neg am resetting and buyers not knowing what to do.
*Buyers not feeling the pressure anymore
*Oh, and did anyone fail to forget that spring and summer are always the hottest selling seasons? Just wait until fall and winter…not going to be pretty.
Yes every housinghead on Craigslist has refi’d into a fixed 5.5% loan, we know. But the stats point to the contrary:
2006 - $500 billion adjusts first time
2007 - $1 trillion adjusts first time
2008 - $1 trillion adjusts first time
Total: $2.5 trillion - first time adjustments
Data was from MBA earlier this year.
ABC even had a couple that bought a $200,000 property for $140,000. 30% drop in less than one-year. And supposedly the economy and housing market is strong?
Denial denial denial. But we all know 20% YoY is a housing mantra. Not only that, but even the king HousingHead™, David Lereah came on and said the housing market is “fragile” and only adjusting. Um, remember only a few months ago he was predicing 10 to 15% YoY this year?
R.I.P. housing bubble. We loved you for 7 years but now we are going to divorce you like Jessica Simpson.
http://www.xanga.com/DrStrangeSoCalLove
We still love you Jessica, it’s just that she’s hotter, smarter, and younger than you. We can still be friends though, right?
OT, but another data point of what troubles lay ahead.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14515702/
You know things are getting bad when Americans have to cut back on the finest dining establishment on earth. Applebees…
Mike Schwarm, a 42-year-old plumber from St. Charles, Mo., said he’s cut back on taking his wife and kids to Applebee’s and Romano’s Macaroni Grill Inc. restaurants, from twice weekly to twice monthly.
Ugh, Applebees. Ate there in beautiful Pomona while I was staying in a motel between the two days of the bar exam. Was so persistently annoyed at its mediocrity that I damn near failed the second day’s test.
Good job for passing
Guys for what it is worth I had my property listed at 1,199,000.00 in may and I ended up selling at 1,125,000.00 in Laguna Niguel. I saw my neighbor drop her home by $200,000.00 in July and it made me realize that if I didn’t sober up quickly and drop my price, I was going to lose a lell of a lot more than $70,000.00 off of my asking price. I’m of the poinion there are a ton of people that a in debt up to the gills and they are living off of some sort of fantasy home loan. Divorce alone, which is quite common in the OC has created a need for these loans, as people try to hold onto their properties. Divorce is good for RE! I’m not sure when but I really believe a %20-%30 reduction in the OC is inevitable!
I closed escrow August 3rd.
I would expect southern OC prices to remain ridiculously hight for at least a few more years to come, as sellers still remain in denial stage, thinking they can get any price.
—————————————————————————-
Don’t believe this for a second! Home prices in the OC are going to be plummeting very rapidly due to distressed sales. “Negative leverage” is now slowly starting to take hold of many people’s finances and will be the driving force in forcing home sales in early 2007. All the talk about OC people having “real wealth” and buying property with sizeable downpayments is a bunch of crap. I’m guessing that 80% who bought over the last 2 years are carrying option ARMS - probably interest only and 100% financed.
I predict that by this time next year, OC home prices will be down 25% and falling.
We still have several more months of pain for the OC. I think
-15% might just be in the bag.
Gary’s mirror!
I predict that by this time next MONTH OC home prices will be down 25% and falling. This is nothing like 1990-1995. This is like, or worse, than NASDAQ 5000 in March, 2000. We’re already seeing Spring ‘06 flippers dumping at 20%+ losses in Sacramento. OK, so OC isn’t Sacramento. Still - I think there is a tremendous underestimate of the rapidity of this thing.
I’ll go out on another limb: I see the 30-year T-bond at 4 1/4% in 6 weeks. I’ve seen 5 economists (read: they don’t actually invest people’s money) on Kudlow & Co. in the last 2 days, and all are cautious to bearish on the market but all are predicting the long bond over 5% (to near 6%) by year end. Meanwhile the guys who run real money are rushing into long Treasurys and not letting go.
Think of what happened just this week. 2007 recession talk went from way out of the mainstream to in the mainstream in one week. Now wait one more week: Q4 recession talk will be more mainstream than Q1 2007 is today. That’s how fast this is going down.
We are right on target for the Labor Day Massacre. The blogs and the internet and the 24 hour news cycle can not hold back this title wave. The summer buying season was the worst in years, what do you think will happen with prices in the non-buying season?
looks like you did well greg. someone on greenlawn (with no view) just sold their house 8-18-06 for $999,900. there’s a listing of your plan on footpath for $1,024,900 (per MLS with good view). there are 3 listings at $1,150,000 to $1,250,000.
I am seeing the same townhouses/condos for sale in West LA; even a couple of miniscule price reductions of 10-20k, but still no takers. All of these have been up since 4th of July; last year they were gone in a week. These are mostly 2b/2ba w/hoa, going for around 550k, but slowly moving downwards. Although one going for 648k on the next street is in escrow - I thought all the GF’s were gone by now. At any rate, it makes my jog more interesting…
Sounds like you’re about a year behind us when the market on Long Island was like that. It just pretty much sputtered out right after July 4th, 2005. Since then, inventory has risen about 70% and some of the SAME houses in my neighborhood are STILL for sale!
The ones that don’t sell either have a bad layout, are on busy streets, or are overpriced.
One such house I called about in March or April ‘05.Listed for 439K. I said we couldn’t really afford above 375K. She said the owner wouldn’t entertain offers in the 3’s. Well, that house has dropped its price to 429 I think. Still there. Still needs a paint job, landscaping and who knows what else! And it was bought years ago.
Another house has been for sale all summer. I looked it up and it’s selling for about 38K less than it was bought for about a year and a half ago. You figure another 25K in commisssions totals about a 63K loss! Ouch! And it’s across from a car repair shop and about 3000 feet from rail road tracks! (Nice house though.)