Phoenix Speculators Learn To ‘Fix And Flip’
The Arizona Republic reports on the flippers in Phoenix. “The housing market may have cooled but not the enthusiasm for investing in Phoenix area real estate. About 1,000 investors and would-be investors spent the weekend at Phoenix Civic Plaza learning how to find cheap properties and then ‘fix and flip’ them.”
“The crowds heard tantalizing tales from investors who picked up distressed properties cheap, fixed them and resold them for solid profits. The fact that housing prices have stabilized or even fallen in some areas and the number of homes for sale has risen significantly in the past few months didn’t seem to cool interest.”
“‘It does affect the short term. I think the heat is going to come out of the market a little bit for not long and not much,’ said Phoenix investor Dolf de Roos as he signed copies of his new book 52 Homes in 52 Weeks about his success investing in the Las Vegas housing market. He was the featured speaker Saturday night at the event, sponsored by the Arizona Real Estate Investors Association.”
“He said that even if housing prices come down by 5 or 10 percent, investors still came out ahead because the prices had grown by about 40 percent last year in the Phoenix area. ‘If it was the stock market, that would be a minor correction,’ he said. ‘So what’s the big brouhaha? In five years, it’ll be way ahead of where it is now. I am not worried about it, not with 100 houses being built and filled every day.’”
“Investors have been blamed for, or credited with, causing the huge run-up in housing prices over the past year. But Alan Langston, executive director of the Arizona Real Estate Investors Association, said it wasn’t investors who did that but short-term speculators. True investors make their money over the long term, while speculators like to hold property for several months or a year, he said. Many have moved on to other states, such as Florida and Texas, he said.”
“David Lindahl, a Boston-based investor, said he has earned a lot of money owning apartment complexes. Dealing with tenants was a hassle at first, but then he learned to hire good management companies. He said tenants expect you to raise rents every year. Don’t disappoint them; raise that rent, he advised.”
“The conference lured amateurs eager to make money, including some who have not owned a home, such as Steve Reppe, 23, a University of Arizona student. ‘I used to work really hard when I was in the Army for not much money,’ he said. ‘Why not work less hard for more money?’”
“Ekaterina Glover, 23, a Phoenix resident, said she has been reading books about real estate investing and realized that many mentioned Phoenix. She dreams of getting rich in real estate. ‘I do not have a stable job history or a credit history,’ she said. ‘But if you’re enthusiastic and happy to learn, you can make it.’”
“Valerie Walters wants to invest and has been studying up on it for years. ‘I am tired of reading and ready to get my feet wet,’ she said. LeBertha Umbreit, a former Realtor who has been a Phoenix lawyer for two years, has learned from representing people in real estate transactions that there is a lot of money to make in real estate. ‘Real estate is still the best investment around,’ she said ‘You can get into real estate investing with virtually no money.’”
Thanks to the reader who sent this in. I’ve never heard of this association, but they are nuts. Many RE management firms in AZ have quit taking new rental properties because they can’t fill them. Rents are not going up; if anything they are falling. Even the Phoenix TV stations are reporting on the glut of homes for sale.
Don’t disappoint those renters - raise the rents. That and the 23 year old with no credit, no brains and no job history, but who thinks she can get rich on enthusiasm are priceless quotes. I guess you never run out of folks attending these multi level marketing meetings thinking they’re going to get rich quick.
Right with ya on that call….she sounds like any bamboozled idiot walking out of a multi level bru-ha-ha. Very nice!
Time to start looking at another place to rent with a lower rent! If you don’t price the rent right, you will sit vacant.
I hear ya on that,,, I’ll just move to a better place and cheaper rent from another investor who can’t sell
When I was renting in the 90’s you could get one or two free months per year for the “move in” specials, so I moved every year. My rent didn’t go up and I got at least one month per year free. Tenent turnover is expensive. They should focus on keeping the good tenents with rewards for loayalty like a free week of rent for each year you’ve stayed there, or other perks for folks who have been there over 2-3 years.
In the place I’m renting, they discount the rent 10% if you stay, so the discount for staying is greater than the 1 month free upon the initial lease. They’ve figured out that it costs more money to get a new tenant than keep the old one.
If she had some credit, then instead of paying to attend a seminar to “learn” how to get rich quick, maybe she would have been invited to a condominium pre-sell extravaganza party and she could have felt privilaged when speculating. The irony is since these folks have no credit, nest egg, etc. then they have nothing to lose and will simply default on any loans they can get to “buy” speculative properties. Mr. Dolf de Roos (is that his real name?) probably did make a lot of money flipping properties in 2003-2005, like any breathing idiot willing to take a chance could have…just like the Dot Comm stock market run-up (boy, that seminar market dried up after the crash). No one should consider luck in the same category as being a long term great investor. I’ve never heard of anyone winning the lottery and being described as a brilliant lottery investor/guru, then hitting the seminar circuit pitching their new book “How to Study and Win by Investing in the Lottery”!…then again I think there are some idiots that have forked over cash to learn how to win the lottery. There’s a sucker born every minute…greed is inheirent in human nature. Anybody have the history on Mr. de Roos? These fly by night guys usually have some type of criminal record from their last scam.
I went to an RE Investment club in D.C. a few weeks ago. I felt like I was spying considering I had no interest in investing at this time. They talked a lot about Arizona. This is one example of how when one area of the country is hit by falling prices and tightening debt, another part will be affected as well.
$9 to $18.00 for a book and some CD’s sold to 1000 prospective real estate investors, having a dream, is not a bad way to make a buck on a Saturday.
hello! now we’re getting somewhere. the money is made in seminars, books and cd’s. nothing new here.
sounds like a good gig to me, i sold a total of 4 flips in 00 and 01 maybe i should do some seminars…LOL
IT’S FUN TO BRAG ABOUT FLIPS… when the stars are aligned (interest rates low, RE Media and the HERD jacked up on the idea of getting rich quick)
But it doesn’t LAST FOREVER. Markets can change just as fast as they started.
BUYER BEWARE (house buyers, seminar CD/BOOK buyers, etc). This is NOT the time to be FLIPPING!
I have done my fair share of real estate deals during the GOLDEN YEARS… but I humbly suggest that I would NOT RECOMMEND ANYONE buying right now, anticipating making a buck. At this time in RE history, the stars are NOT aligned.
Place Skull and Crossbones logo HERE.
The Arizona Republic considers this news? These get-rich-in-real-estate seminars have been going on all over the country for years. Do a Google search on David Lindahl, one of the guys quoted and you’ll see that he has his own get-rich website (he calls himself “the apartment king” — similar to the “real estate king” buffoon in American Beauty).
Looks like we’ll crank out another batch or two of Greater Fools before the whole thing goes belly up. Some day soon a person with “no stable job history or a credit history” may find it somewhat difficult to get a bank loan to speculate in real estate.
The Arizona press is a joke. You should see what passes for news on the TV channels; Car wrecks and basketball player visits to local schools.
I think it’s because Arizona in general is a joke. The press just reflects what’s going on there.
Just reading this makes you realize how truly stupid and ill informed many people are out there. There never seems to be a shortage of fools who line up to have their money taken from them. Like the woman who has been ‘reading’ and now is ready to “get her feet wet” … unfortunately, more than just her feet are likely to get wet, her entire financial future is at risk of being under water. How is that for wet lady?
people who attend these events are probably also linning up for the try-outs of the apprentice, american-idol, next super model and the such. Get a life people. (Get a job and get on with it)
‘Valerie Walters wants to invest and has been studying up on it for years. ‘I am tired of reading and ready to get my feet wet,’ she said
Yes, by taking a bath in PHX. Keep on studying, Valerie.
What happens with the whole bubble thing (housing or stock market) is that those who actually read and are educated in financial fundamentals (I’ve got my MBA / Finance) and are investing for the long term would NEVER buy into the hype. I would never have bought a stock with a negative or 100+ ratio. Just like I never bought into the housing bubble (I did sell though). I’ll admit I never got rich on either bubble, but then again I didn’t loose. It just never fundamentally made any sense. I believe that there is a balance to all of this and for all the idiots that will loose their money, there are an equal number of idiots that will have made a lot of money and were lucky enough (or, ok…smart enough) to get out while the getting out was good. They will be the ones who despite knowing anything about the fundamentals of real estate investing will have giant egos for scoring it big in real estate. There will always be enough fools to jump in and lose it all…just look at the gambling industry. Despite anyone with any brains knowing that gambling is a losing proposition, people gladly throw their money away. After all somebody’s got to win, it might as well be me.
OutOfSanDiego,
Well said. There are alot of PROFESSIONALS that are looking at this market and saying “Are you Nuts!”
Fortune Magazine (Oct. 31 2005 issue) had a great cover story article about Tom Barrack “Worlds Best Real Estate Investor”… a California Billionaire that recently pulled all his money out of USA real estate and is now investing overseas.
One of his quotes in the article suggested that the writing is on the wall… and the fact that there are so many amatuers in the market now- “you would be crazy to invest now”.
As many on this blog has suggested over the last few months…
When EVERYONE thinks they can get rich on real estate, just by signing up for easy loans- that’s about the time that the GAME IS OVER.
I personally have (recently) pulled out of the market, and will continue to rent while this thing SHAKES OUT!!
And they’re prosecuting Ken Lay? Granted, Lay mismanaged a public company, defrauding stockholders, but what this clown “Dolf” is doing is horrendous. I have little empathy for stupid, greedy people that buy into that sh*t, but jeez…
will there be any consequences for these bozos?
Hi from Phoenix
I have been tracking inventory in Glendale, AZ between 300K and 400K. Absolutely nothing is selling. Numbers have gone from 240 to 340 in about four months. Anyone investing in Phoenix deserves what they get.
I pass a new neighborhood on my way to work everyday and a house on the end and closest to a busy street had a hand made “For Sale” sign in the window. The sign has come down and now there is a realator sign out in front. I bet this “investor” is getting pretty nervous.
I love viewing the resales that have never been lived in and have the beautiful DIRT or rock backyards with absolutely no landscaping and a plain block cement wall around it, Lovely! I have closely studied the national housing market bubble for the last three years (sold my house in San Diego in mid-2004, live in Bubble-isous South Florida) and have closely monitored the Phoenix area with several visits (originally wanted to move there before the bubble really took off there in late 2004). Due to numerous factors all converging, I believe the biggest bubble and the one which will suffer the largest and quickest impact is Phoenix, too many idiot California speculators trying to make a quick, easy buck.
i saw this on keith’s housing panic
recent new homebuyers: read it and weep
http://newspaperads.mercurynews.com/ROP/ads.aspx?advid=128467&adid=2613016&cat=3461
Wow, those are big reductions. Folks who bought those before the sale must be pretty pissed off at this point.
I wonder how much margin that builder has to play with?
just wait folks, plenty more to follow…
as much as i hate tract housing, a few of those are pretty decent
Phoenix Metro Invetory speaks for itself, and it says, “Phuck the flippers.” I give them credit for being ambitious, but they are phucking idiots. The only one getting rich is the dude who gave the seminar off admission and books, cds, trinkets, etc.
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A graph of this instead would be pretty cool
Cut & paste into Excel & convert “text to columns” (on the Data menu)
You’re right. I just played around with it in Excel and put it in a graph. It’s an amazing picture.
BayQT~
darnit ptp, you let it slide below 36k
grrrrrrr……….
ok ok ok, i know we dipped below 36k, but that’s ok… when those DR Horton slash and burn home sales spread from Sacremento to Phoenix, you better believe that the 36k will turn into 46k or 56k. The speculation is soooooo deep here, that I ‘ve been laughing at the ‘investor’ penentration numbers the press magically produces… My guestimate is that if you count the 2nd home mtgs and the investment mtgs, and even the primary mtgs..(where buyer never acutally moves in), then I’d say that 70% of all realty purchase last year were speculative investments/ flips. My laughter at the situation is turn to a little fear. Although I just leased a place for the next year, I am deeply concerned about what could happen if there were major layoffs in the Home Building/ realty sector. This Phx economy will come under pressure. I mean, how do the 100+ granite slab businesses survive as it is??
Has Warren Buffett ever written a book or “held a seminar”?…LMAO
Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting does tend to have a “manic” feel.
Although Buffet himself attempts to play it down and the mania is usually about being a boring value investor!
I remember the tech boom when many people (holders of stocks or employees with options) thought the tech downturn would be temporary. Here we are six years out and it still hasn’t come back, nor does it seem like it will ever return to those levels.
This is down the standard phrase of RE pumpers (like the author mentioned here)- its all temporary, back to like it was soon.
There is more money to be made in seminars and books, than in doing the thing you are promoting. Obviously.
Check out the inventory, listed above. That shows your competition is serious. It’s too late to make money.
The big problem is, as Prof. Piggington has said (www.piggington.com), is that home prices are sticky on the way down. I can see that now. Inventory is exploding, sales are down, and list prices are fairly high, with a small reduction here and there. It’s going to take a long time for sellers to lower their prices. The sellers just don’t get it yet.
52 homes in 52 weeks? Even I think this is dumb! And I believe in real estate investing.
You gotta ask, if this guy is so successful at investing in real estate, why is he bothering to have seminars? He should be too rich by now to have time to waste on something as aggravating and competition-producing as seminars.
It reminds me of blackjack players who write books about card counting. If they are making so much money playing blackjack, why do they need to sell books about it? Same applies to real estate investing. You either do it and you’re good at it, or you are a poser who talks about it.
“He said that even if housing prices come down by 5 or 10 percent, investors still came out ahead because the prices had grown by about 40 percent last year in the Phoenix area.”
First, this is simply irrelevant for anyone who is considering buying “today.” Second, why would you hold on to an asset if you think that prices will fall? Hell, sell it today and repurchase the property in a few years at a lower price. That’s a no brainer.
All this points to a drop in Demand and an increase in Supply, and a significant drop in price. The quicker everyone “sees the finish line” of lower prices, the better. We need to get this bubble deflated quickly so that the economy can move on to more productive areas.
1. Property tax basis. (California Prop 13)
2. Excellent fixed interest rate mortgage.
3. Federal capital gains taxes on investment or short term home.
4. State income taxes on investment or short term home. (California again).
5. On investment property, depreciation and other expenses allow you to show losses creating a reduction of current income tax rate of 25-33% which is recaptured at the Cap. Gains rate later, if at all.
6. You are happy in your home and would not be guaranteed to get that home back.
7. Moving is quite stressful, especially on a marriage w/kids.
8. How can you be sure prices will fall? I thought they would in 2003, 2004, and finally in 2005 the cracks started to show. Yes, 2006 looks like the year the feces hits the fan.
It is most definitely always a ‘brainer’. Anytime you disengage your brain you set yourself up for problems.
I’m always the contrarian and often ready to be the contra-contrarian.
He was referring to investors and not owner occupiers, and he was arguing that hanging on to an asset during a price decline is ok, given that there was huge recent price appreciation. This is simply not true. It doesn’t make sense to lose a dollar tomorrow simply because you gained two dollars yesterday.
I don’t know if all those little transactions costs you metion add up to enough to offset the kinds of price drops that he is expecting. It might, but it depends on the specifics.
Speaking from personal experience, transaction costs can eat you alive, ESPECIALLY as an investor.
I do expect to see price drops probably greater than the monetary costs I’ve listed above, but not by a whole lot. The taxes are the killer. But including non-monetary costs I think it’s break-even. FOR ME, and yes AS AN INVESTOR. For SOMEONE ELSE, PERHAPS NOT. You really don’t just push a button on Etrade and sell a house. I’m sure some Arizona investors are wishing that were the case.
My main point was to USE YOUR BRAIN and run the numbers. Stampeding with the herd is a danger in either direction…
Sorry to emphasize but I think my point was being lost in the often renter/investor animosity that hangs in the air. I’m just saying think for yourself!
I can’t wait for the prices to fall. We looked at about around 100 homes this past summer. The prices that these builders were expecting was laughable. 350-450k in Gilbert for a courtyard home (1500-1800 sq. ft) When we mentioned that we are in “sticker shock”, their comments were always the same: “We are still lower than homes in California. We increase our prices weeky.” What the &$*$! Many of them also demanded that both potential homeowner camp out in hopes at winning their lottery (we had a newborn at the time). Most wanted 20% and wouldn’t guarantee completion for at least 1 year. There is no way we would ever spend that much money for a piece of stucco on a few feet of dry land to be at their mercy. I can’t wait for them to choke!
We are looking to rent for a while, as rent is extremely low. We have had three eager home owners offer us $1,000/month for 3,300-4,000 sq. ft (Maricopa and Queen Creek) last week. We are going to rent in Chandler at $750/month (3bed, 2.5bth) as it is much closer to work.
Our area in Michigan has not experienced any bubble. It has been depressed. We bought a new 3,200 sq. ft. Pulte brick home 6 years ago. Homes in our neighborhood were selling at 340-380k and are now going for 300-345k. We are in an upscale neighborhood and have top notched schools. Several homes are in foreclosure (interest only loan).
You are very smart for renting right now. I have been very amused over the last year at the lotteries the home builders in the Phoenix area have held for buyers to “win” the opportunity to purchase a pre-sell unit. Not amused at the builder, but at the idiots (mainly speculators, busloads of them from California) lining up to pay anything for the unit. They are similar to the folks lining up to buy shares of dot com IPO stocks even when the underlying business plan and fundamentals of the company made absolutely no sense. These real estate “investors” are better termed real estate “gamblers”. However, the tide is turning so quick right now in the Phoenix area that several of the large builders are not keeping their own websites up to date. You can click on a new development and the website gives the rules about registering for the next lottery etc., but then you can click on “Inventory Homes” and the same development often has homes available for immediate move-in. Ironic! In the summer of 2003 in the “new” community of Estrella Mountain Ranch in Goodyear they were practically begging you to buy a home there (a new developer was pumping it up after the original company folded in the mid-90s). It was a hot (114 degree) dry windy day when we visited. I found the development attactive at the prices back then (the low prices countered the horrendous climate). But what has changed (other than speculation) that makes those same properties worth double the price in the last 18 months? The weather or the local economy certainly hasn’t changed (oh yeah, I forgot, maybe it’s worth the higher prices since it is and always will be cheaper than Southern California).
I’m planning on moving to Phoenix in the next 2 months…where in Chandler is the rent 750? Let me know if you can because I’m looking for something along those lines? Is it a complex or a private property owner renting it out? How did you find i, where did you look? Thanks.
I guess there is never a shortage of suckers to attend these type of events. Imagine the shortcuts in fixing properties “advisors” at these events are teaching flippers. Corner-cutting in repairs is probably a huge problem for those who will end up buying these flipped properties (plumbing, electric roofing problems.)
Amazing that folks would be clamoring for an autographed copy of the book “52 Homes in 52 Weeks” about flipping Las Vegas homes.
I don’t think most people have grasped how extraordinary the last few years have been. Much like the tech/telecom stock mania of the late ’90s, this RE frenzy was a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
It would be like buying a copy of “How to Get Rich in the California Gold Rush” in 1855—when it was already over.
I’m sure folks will still be able to make money in RE in the future. But they will have to do it the old-fashioned way—buy at the right price and the right location—and it won’t be overnight.
Seems like plenty of people missed the RE boom and are just now thinking about jumping in. Too little, too late.
“Valerie Walters wants to invest and has been studying up on it for years. ‘You can get into real estate investing with virtually no money.’”
er…uh… NEWS FLASH Valerie:
You can put yourself in an extremely uncomfortable FINANCIAL SITUATION “with virtually no money”… too.
Word to the Wise: BORROWING money to get rich could just as easily put you in the POOR HOUSE.
Place skull and crossbones logo HERE.
It is a vacant home in north Chandler. It is a “friend of a friend” that moved to Seattle and hasn’t been able to sell it. We were tempted to rent the Maricopa 4,000 sq. ft. house, but was unsure about the commute or utitility costs in a house that big (all want a 12 month lease). Queen Creek and Maricopa have the best deals on rental homes right now.
Maricopa is a big county….so the “killer” rent may have you way out in the sticks with a huge commute and little ammentities, or near a bad area. Queen Creek is also far out, imo. Chandler, also a big area, parts are near town, other’s are pretty far out. You definately want to drive around and make sure you are truely getting a deal at the lower rent vs closer in.
Check out rent in 85338, 85340 (Goodyear & Litchfield Park) for the west side (near ball stadiums, not as bad of traffic) if you’re job is in central Phoenix or more west. Parts of Goodyear are far out (Estrella Mountain Ranch), but by Palm Valley section is very nice and closer in. Litchfield Park is next door and doesn’t have I-10 road noise (though you will hear the sound of freedom….jets :)….can jump on the 101 easily. Both are very safe and have more ammentities than several years ago (most on east side aren’t aware of this and still think of it as farmland). Litchfield school district is stellar. New mall starting next year, more upscale shopping starting soon…it has really boomed. Have a friend renting a very nice, smaller (under 3000 sq ft), 5 bedroom home on county land next to Litchfield Park for a very nice price in a nice community. Now this home isn’t fancy, doesn’t have the architectural stuff or community ammentities, doesn’t have views…but it is a great little rental for the price in a very safe area close to everything.
Don’t know where to direct you if your employment is on the east side as we don’t live there.
“Valerie Walters wants to invest and has been studying up on it for years. ‘I am tired of reading and ready to get my feet wet,’ she said.”
Try not to accidently drown in debt while you are getting your feet wet!
Phoenix, AZ: “There is no there, there”.
All-time best choice for a Witness Protection Program lifestyle.
Bland, alienated and transient. Add overpriced, ugly cheaply constructed
housing and watch the market slowly implode.