Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Builder incentives? From Arizona. “As the real estate market declines, so does the number of jobs related to the industry. Thus far layoffs among homebuilders have been minimal, and real estate agents say their numbers are still strong. ‘Here’s the bottom line, nobody knows what’s going on,’ said Ron LaMee, Arizona Association of Realtors vice president of information services.”
From Seattle. “You’ve probably heard something like this before: ‘Every child is unique and special. It’s the same for a city’s personality. It’s just as easy to think of Seattle as special; defying the trends ahead. Our regional narrative continues to insist that we remain a red-hot real estate market, ignoring the cautionary data. The rest of the country might be experiencing a pop in the housing bubble, but the ‘we’re different’ idea suits our perception of ourselves.”
“I would suggest Seattle is riding its wave, too. The real estate numbers reflect the swell in the tsunami ahead: In King County we keep building (a 43 percent increase in housing permits), while home resales are shrinking (down 13.7 percent from a year ago). Our inventory of available homes is huge as we shift into an era when no one wants to be the last person to buy a home at its most expensive price.”
The Globe and Mail. “For those of you who have just sunk all your savings into a new house in Toronto,..you may have just bought at what some experts are calling the tail end of a long seller’s market. Out in the field, people for whom real estate is business are already noticing the pendulum swing.”
“‘Prices seem to have softened somewhat, that’s for sure,’ observes broker Niels Christensen. ‘There are more houses selling for under asking price now than there were for the same period a year ago.’”
“There are signs that Greater Vancouver’s elevated real estate prices may ease back in a soft landing, rather than a burst bubble. The report notes housing demand in Vancouver has been softening since the beginning of the year while listings have risen.”
“TD defines a bubble as when buyers bid home prices up beyond underlying fundamentals on the expectation of further price gains. ‘It is, by definition, impossible to identify a bubble before it bursts, since rational investors would refuse to hold any asset whose price was certain to fall,’ it notes. The report also says there are clear signs the U.S. housing market is falling back to earth, dampening U.S. economic performance and possibly spreading to affect Canada.”
Support Ben’s Blog call in to Pay Pal.
I was in the city of Orange this weekend, quite a few houses for sale. I was walking a current resident…one of the “reduced” houses was now $589,000 — (80K off). The neighborhood resident said…that’s gonna a shock a lot of people in this neighbor if a house sells for less than 600K.
Here here.
I donated $50 not too long ago; its cheap for the reliable news on the most expensive investment a person makes. Let’s keep this blog going.
check this out from Sunday’s LA Times real estate section.
http://www.reply.com/
a new way to buy real estate bidding on properties not yet for sale!
I looked at that site it’s valuations are worse than zillows. I plugged in a address and it says it’s worth 70 grand more than what it closed escrow for 2 mo’s ago. So it appreciated 10% in 2 months. Nevermind the other errors. but we will see how it works out how long it stays. And how long it will be before someone sue’s their a$$.
I’m pretty sure Zillow purposely values high to make the site more appealing to naive investors! After all, they want to use the site that makes them look the “richest!”
Here’s a real life Zillow example. My sisters home in Clifton VA. They purchased in 2005 for 785K or 340/ft. The comps as noted on zillow under “How this home stacks up” show 253/ft. The home is 2,646 sqft. similar in size both home and lot to most in the development. So 253 x 2646= 669K..bad news for my sister…but Zillow shows a value of 899K so she thinks she’s rich! Maybe they are just trying not to hurt the feeling of all these foolish buyers.
My son and his friends in Atlanta think Zillow values are too low. So which is it, too high or too low?
Zillow is a joke! According to Zillow, the house I am currently renting went up in value from 1.4M to 1.8M between April and August of this year. That is 28% appreciation in just 6 months and they all say the market is getting soft! Tell that to someone at Zillow!
It kind of gives a whole new meaning to “coveting your neighbor’s house”. I remember as a child feeling scared when people would drive by our rural property and ask if we would sell it to them.
I’m at a loss to understand the purpose really. Unless they were doing it free whats the point. Or unless your going to offer over the value. Why spend 30 bucks doing that. Or maybe to offer on vacant lots and houses. But a lot of times the address information is wrong so you just spent 30 bucks to verify that. Maybe someone can clue me in to the benefit of the service.
Wow.
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=7674576&CFTOKEN=28341640&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1260&menugroup=Home
“Even more alarming, Washington Mutual, a leading issuer of option ARMs, revealed that it had improperly calculated some customer debt/income ratios for 2004 and most of 2005. As a result, borrowers qualified for loans at lower interest rates than was justified by their personal financial situations. According to the company, the unpaid balance of borrowers who mistakenly qualified totaled $30 billion.”
I had to read that paragraph three times. EiiiiYiiiikes! $30B in bogus loans from one issuer. And that’s what they’re admitting to!
That $30 billion number is out of a total of $43 billion in Option ARMS written. They screwed up almost 75% of their Option ARM business. Incredible.
Friday Wash Mut is offering 13 mo CDs in California @ 5.75% yielding 5.85%. Make sure you’ve got FDIC insurance!!!
Thanx TxChick. I also enjoyed “Calm Before the Storm” a link on the page you provided above.
“…it had improperly calculated some customer debt/income ratios for 2004 and most of 2005. As a result, borrowers qualified for loans at lower interest rates than was justified by their personal financial situations.”
whatEVah, Wamu. ‘Improperly calculated,’ huh?
“I am shocked — Shocked — to find that gambling is going on in here!”
– Captain Renault in ‘Casablanca’
Add to all of this, the market is now, by most measures, way over bought. I have puts on most of the major subprime lenders. Maybe I am too optimistic about their down fall, but all of the info this weekend, including the Businessweek cover and the lead story on “banks in trouble” on CBSMarketwatch give some reason to suspect trouble among the lenders and the market in general.
Iron grip of RE gang in Tucson
http://www.azstarnet.com/altds/pastframe/business/144476
According to the local real estate cartel, things are still hunky dory here in the Old Pueblo, aka Tucson. However, in my bicycle rides around town, I like to play “Count the ‘For Sale’ Signs.” Tomorrow’s ride will take me through a slice of Midtown, where I’ve been counting some of the same signs for over a YEAR.
Interesting. Just got back from Tucson. Saw many signs, as you noted. Also, spent the day shopping/eating at La Encantanta (sp?)…the place was dead, and for lunch at Bluefin, our group of 7 was the only table at 1pm. Kinda weird for a holiday wknd? Also stayed at La Paloma, and for a holiday, surprising quiet at the pool, even with their local rate specials.
As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, permit me to report the results of today’s “Count the ‘For Sale’ Signs” game. This morning, I took a 16.5 mile bicycle ride through central Tucson. During my ride, I counted a total of 27 ‘For Sale’ signs.
Included in this number are three properties that have been on the market for over a year. All three are in highly desirable neighborhoods. By that, I mean that two are in Sam Hughes and the other is in Poet’s Corner. I also passed by two other houses that are for sale and for rent.
What stood out about this ride is that I was doing a lot of re-counting of signs that have been up for many months.
And that’s the latest housing news from central Tucson!
Yesterday I drove through a subdivision I have keeping track of for over a year ( Gladden Farms, Marana, AZ approx 700 homes), at dusk. Although the total number of for sale signs have not really changed in the past year(45- 60), the developers are going full bore in phase II. There are at least 100 new homes built this past summer with more on the way and about 1/3 are lived in.
But what surprized me were the number of dark homes in the Phase 1 homes without “For sale” signs - maybe as high as 10-15%.
There is a newer development nearby by US Homes, this looks “scarily” empty. Construction is also almost at a standstill.
However - condo conversions in Tucson are still running at a strong pace- at least when they are managed by competent developers. I do know of two trainwreck conversions in Tucson, primarily due to the developers.
they may have to keep construction going, so they don’t lose the bond that they had to post with the local government or so they don’t have their financing pulled by the bank. Also, if he lays workers off..his unemployment insurance goes up. If he stops building, then it would become even harder to sell the ones that have already been built. If he stops building, the people that already bought will be suing to get the development finished.
The builder may be forced to keep building, even when he wants to stop or pause.
This may be another indication of how the housing market is entwined with the rest of the economy.
I had a conversation with some friends that work with/for builders in Marana/Eloy/Florence last weekend. Now that labor and materials are coming down, they figure they can build for $50/sq ft plus land cost. I had a hard time believing that, but they laid out all the costs and how they’re putting the squeeze on contractors and materials are abundant now. That’s $100K for a 2000 sq ft house plus whatever they paid for land. Most of the big builders bought land years ago when land was cheap. They’ll keep building as long as they can sell them for a profit.
“I had a conversation with some friends that work with/for builders in Marana/Eloy/Florence last weekend. Now that labor and materials are coming down, they figure they can build for $50/sq ft plus land cost. I had a hard time believing that, but they laid out all the costs and how they’re putting the squeeze on contractors and materials are abundant now. That’s $100K for a 2000 sq ft house plus whatever they paid for land. Most of the big builders bought land years ago when land was cheap. They’ll keep building as long as they can sell them for a profit. ”
Good post…this is as many have suspected. Builders with much maneuverability in pricing will ride this thing all the way down. The uninformed masses will be aghast at the reductions in prices coming down the pike.
DOC
I don’t doubt this. I recall reading an article (I’d swear WSJ, but I cannot find the link) on hedge funds stating they could buy up failing business and build condos/townhomes/courtyard homes on the land and sell, at a profit, for 30 to 40 cents on the dollar (of today’s prices).
Near my folks, they are closing a few dozen tiny businesses to allow the building of about 280 townhomes. (A total of ~430 on that street, IIRC).
I have no doubt they’ll be able to sell.
I also have no doubt that the median sales price will keep crashing. I bet the last builder done won’t have much “maneuverability.” But… I bet the first builder will move a lot of units and profit nicely.
I admit, we’re a long way from the bottom… far further than I would have thought even three or four months ago.
Neil
The local rag laments the loss of tudents to the housing pustule:
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/
Pen …And the sad part is the builders over estimated the demand and now they are stuck by the points you outlined above .
Many got sucked in by the NAR/realtor projections that the party would be going for at least another 5 years at high appreciation rates per year . Many realtors would talk about the 70mil baby boomers that were retiring . The funny part is they don’t all retire at the same time and it will be spread out for a 20 year time period . Not to say that there wasn’t demand from boomer taking out equity to buy second homes to retire in later or just for speculation .
When they do retire they may downsize or rent, putting further downward pressure on prices.
This was in the topics thread:
‘An example of ’soft landing,’ in Sacramento, CA’
MLS 60011176
ZipRealty Price Track: DOM 211
Price Reduced: 02/21/06 — $485,500 to $480,000
Price Increased: 03/06/06 — $480,000 to $499,900
Price Reduced: 03/15/06 — $499,900 to $495,500
Price Reduced: 04/03/06 — $495,500 to $489,000
Price Reduced: 04/20/06 — $489,000 to $480,500
Price Reduced: 05/01/06 — $480,500 to $475,900
Price Reduced: 05/03/06 — $475,900 to $472,500
Price Reduced: 05/17/06 — $472,500 to $470,500
Price Reduced: 05/23/06 — $470,500 to $465,900
Price Reduced: 06/01/06 — $465,900 to $465,000
Price Reduced: 06/06/06 — $465,000 to $462,000
Price Reduced: 06/15/06 — $462,000 to $459,999
Price Reduced: 06/24/06 — $459,999 to $459,000
Price Reduced: 07/18/06 — $459,000 to $452,000
Price Reduced: 07/23/06 — $452,000 to $437,500
Price Reduced: 08/15/06 — $437,500 to $434,900
Price Reduced: 08/29/06 — $434,900 to $430,000
Another reader replied:
‘Oh for the love of Pete. If the owner had just ripped the bandaid off and reduced the price (say, instead of raising the price $20K, what the hell, back in March, they’d dropped it the same amount), they might have sold it. Per Zillow, it was purchased for $309K back in ‘03, so assuming it’s not HELOCed to dea- what am I saying, of course it is.’
‘The stupid, it burns!’
Ben - that house is now listed at $415K
Quote from end of listing (yes in bold) “OWNER WOULD LOVE TO SELL IT TO YOU THIS WEEKEND!!”
PS - I know that market well. Home will only fetch $399K and is dropping .8% a month.
Not too exciting, but, in my neighborhood, one house came on the market as a FSBO a few weeks ago, and their flyer really stood out, IMO. They made it clear that they’d been transferred and that was the only reason they were moving. They also pointed out that they had priced their house to sell - much lower than the other around it. (One house just behind them is asking $399,000, and one that’s a block over wants $325,000. They’re asking $295,000, which I thought was reasonable. Wrong.) It’s still sitting there with all the others.
I know I shouldn’t be rooting for RE to go down in my neighborhood since I own here, but I think this whole bubble is bigger than my little neck of the woods, and I suspect that somehow, somewhere along the road, I’m going to end up paying for all this madness.
And when this couple finally sells for 280K, how does the 399K house ever get an appraisal near their asking? Oh, that’s right …… SS, granite and the portable hot tub.
Below March ‘06 appraisal! The plasma stays! So does the Durango! Just take it all! Help me, Saint Joseph!
A comment from fly-over land: It’s amazing that in the past 18 mos. about 25% of the homes on the main road out to mine (~50-60 homes) have changed hands. They are historic homes in the village so the area is considered highly desirable and homes have turned over pretty quickly. But I think it’s kind of interesting how once “in”, no one wants to hold onto their “highly desirable” home.
The Sacramento Bee Sep 2, ‘06 headline–”Pot raids hit six more homes.” Wait a minute, is this housing bubble related? Yes it is in a way even I didn’t think of:
“Police and real estate agents have speculated that the culprits may have tried to find neighborhoods in which there had been a lot of resale activity - that is, places where residents would be relatively new and unaware of their neighbors, or where new investors bought homes only to flip them for a quick profit.”
“The {Sacramento Real Estate Statististics blog analyzed the neighborhoods of busted homes and found that they had an average of 20 house sales “mostly in the last two years.”
“The site Speculated that a “flipper neighborhood would be the perfect place, since nobody who owns there really lives there.”
BTW, one of the homes busted yesterday was a block away from the house where we’re renting.
Expect to see more of this. As flippers get more and more desperate to rent out their alligators, they will be less and less picky about checking out their customers. Imagine you owned a flop that had been sitting empty for a year, and you were offered the following deal:
“Here’s one year’s rent in advance, cash on the table. We’ll even pay for the gardener. We’ll be out of town a lot, so leave a message at this number if you need to get in touch. Application and credit info? That pile of cash is our application and credit info.”
You would probably pick up the cash and say: “Thanks, see you next year!”
In some places, your house can be seized for selling drugs. For some flippers, that might be a good thing. Unless they then owe the bank for the whole thing.
Many leases these days specifically have a clause related to production of drugs. That would be an “out” for the landlord.
Zero tolerance has been around since the late 80s. The section 8 apartments built in 1978 across the street from my parents house in Fresno was full of druggies, welfare cheats, and other dregs with their rap so called “music” (known as break dance music in those days). Then the authorities got brains and started zero tolerance. Any connection with drugs and the tenant gets evicted and the apartment gets some responsibility. It cleaned up the neighborhood slightly, but not to the way it was before the Lyndon Baines Johnson slums were built (my name for them, since it was his “Great” Society socialist engineering program that drove out good people to bring in bad people).
“Expect to see more of this. As flippers get more and more desperate to rent out their alligators, they will be less and less picky about checking out their customers.”
Bingo. Talked to a student at the community college here in Stockton. He’s been depressed and his family is reeling with stress. Seems his neighbor/owner rented to a drug dealing/using crew. Parties all night, loud music, folks fighting, barfing and having sex in the back yard, cars racing down the street. He can’t sleep or study and everyone’s afraid to confront. The police in Stockton are overwhelmed as it is–so you can count them out. I told my girlfriend years ago this was going to play out exactly like this. All of these funky financed Mc Mansion developments are going to be crime-ridden time bombs. What a waste. I do feel sorry for those who bought early on–thinkng they’d live there forever–now only to watch it all deteriorate before their eyes.
Welcome to the Stockton RE crash nightmare.
DOC
Quick stupid one:
Sacramento, Brother in Law the realtor has crazy stubborn sellers who are original owners on standard tract home. No updates since built. Asking price $595K and sellers refuse to lower price, want to use proceeds to buy new larger McMansion. Enter Mr Investor with two houses in area, he bids $535K or $60K less. Seller have apoplectic fit, go off on my Brother in Law about presenting “Insults”
despite having no other offers since listing. Brother in Law swallows pride since sellers say they will buy new house from him, convinces them to at least counter. They finally do so with $585K, Mr. Investors agent responds that Mr Investor is kinda busy right now but will get back to them when/if he gets the time. Of course I have no Idea how Mr. Investor plans on cash flowing this property even if he did get his price. And his plans were to have 5 houses. WTF ?
Amazing. The idiots can chase the market down, then. Let them burn.
I cannot believe the Amateur “Investors” are still wanting to play this game. I LOVE IT !!
All of a sudden, when I go to Realtor.com, I can no longer get any listings when I specify specific cost parameters, e.g., $400,000-$500,000.
It’s almost as if they don’t want you to easil;y be able to see how much inventory is building up. As long as inventory is rapidly building, buyers will want to defer a purchase and there goes the commissions.
Ha! Realty sites in Seattle have been doing this all year.
My favorite is when they change the parameters of the locations you click on every couple months so there is absolutely no way to track where inventory is going.
Some of the sites have been doing this (hiding/changing data) in San Diego over the past year.
I’ve also noticed on Realtor.com that when you want to look at a different zip, you can’t just change it like before. You have to start the entire search all over again.
Anyone else notice this?
This is intentional. They need to force you to look at the ads on each page each time, since that’s where the bucks come from. They don’t want it to be easy, they want your eyeballs to stay on the page as long as possible.
this will only work in northern california, but if you are a speculator and you are desperate to keep your investment you can always rent it out to someone to shoot a porn movie. i heard they pay pretty good and always looking for homes.
on second thought, this will work with anyone in the area if your ARM resets and you need to generate some extra cash to keep your home
Whatever you do, if you decide to move to Las Cruces, NM for goodness sakes, lowball it! There are plenty of homes for sale - both custom (finished & unfinished) and tract. For Sale signs are staying up in my neighborhood (88007) and sellers are holding out. So please make them wait longer. (Thanks!
) Maybe things will be better after next week’s (9/11/2006) Business Week. An issue on Toxic Mortgages.
I have been interested in this place near Tucson. It’s fairly upscale & this is the first price break other than token amounts. Anyone know Saddlebrooke?
http://www.robson.com/page.cfm?name=SaddleBrk_
I have a friend whose parents live in Saddlebrooke for part of each year. (They go back to the Midwest in the summer.) My friend reports that her parents are quite happy there.
However, and, yes, that ugly h-word always has to intrude, doesn’t it? Saddlebrooke is a long way from any major hospital, should you happen to need one. In other words, prepare to get in your car and drive 20 miles should you happen to need the specialized care of the Tucson Heart Hospital. Or hope that the paramedics can get you there before it’s too late.
And, here’s a more practical consideration: Let’s say that your retirement income isn’t as abundant as you’d thought it would be, and you have to get a job. Well, the employment center in this part of the state is Tucson, and, as I mentioned above, that’s a 20-mile drive away.
Thank you for the comments. I really appreciate them. I am going to check the area out next month. I am retired & like the 55+ thingy.
The hospital problem has been answered by this new one.
http://www.nmcorovalley.com/
It’s Oro Valley and greatly overpriced.
My ex girlfriend and I came across Saddlebrooke and we looked at it. We didn’t know it was for the 55 and older. I was 39 or 40 and my girlfriend was in her mid-30s. We did like the sense of security, cleanliness, the cleaner air. But I’m not sure that I would want to be the youngest (when I’m 55) in a community of over 55. I don’t anticipate retiring until my late 60s. Possibly age 75!
I’ve never seen info on Colorado Springs. Considering moving for retirement. Any R.E. info?
i think the fort collins area is bigger for retirees. especially loveland
Loveland is beautiful. My sister lived there for years on 30 acres, spring and summer were great, but those winters were tough…
I’d pick Colo Springs for retirement. Ft Collins and Loveland are sprawling like crazy. Both used to be nice little towns.
Colorado Springs housing inventories just hit an 18-year high. Foreclosures for August for one off from their previous 16-year high (in May). Tons of FBs having sleepless nights, if anecdotal evidence is anything to go by. Also a sharp rise in “home for auction” signs at intersections. BTW, what kind of morons actually fall for scammer’s signs on intersections?
I went to an open house last weekend in NE Colorado Springs. The place was owned by an “investor” and the sign-in sheet listed only one visitor three hours after the open house had started. Of course, I made of point of mentioning that I’m renting until the middle of 2007, and probably longer, for the post-Bubble firesales. Also said the only way I’d buy from a Flipper is to totally lowball them. RE lady was cordial enough, and will no doubt be reporting back to Flipper-Boy that the market psychology has changed.
These guys have an amazing grasp of the obvious
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-08-30-13430.html
Oops. Stainless steel becoming a cliche?
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2006/09/01/8384563/index.htm
That’s what Mark Johnson, a Whirlpool design manager, says is happening to stainless-steel appliances. “For a period of time, people aspired to a commercial kitchen,” he says. “What I am seeing is more interest in warmer finishes.”
I bought one of those cool stainless steel garbage cans with the step on pad/pop-up lid. Looks cool but is a bitch to keep clean, you can’t just wipe it down. It needs stainless cleaner plus a good buffing by hand to clean it up to original finish. I should have remembered 20 years years ago when I had a Stainless Steel Darkroom sink.
The guy who wrote the “are we really special” (re. Seattle) piece is the editor of a local paper. A few weeks back he also wrote an editorial about how the housing market is built on crap loans.
Considering Seattle is in the top 6 markets nationwide for both ARM’s and Neg Am’s, it was about time SOMEBODY around here came out of the closet with the truth.
Although there ARE negative housing reports about the Seattle market, they are always followed up quickly, within a day or two, with “saves”.
This guy, Mark Trahant, is the only public person who has stayed on track with his message. Thank God for people like him.
You can be sure that this WaMu news will be only lightly covered in Seattle media, even though there’s a WaMu on every corner in every town in the state.
Map of Misery
about exotic loans.
that’s an awesome map. contrary to popular opinion, i think california will hold up longer than most folks think due to their property tax rules. i think the bubble implodes in the east where tax considerations aren’t a huge deal, then spreads west.
WOW! Great map, great info. and great post!
We here in the greater So. Cal area are number one! We will be in a world of hurt very soon. Baldies for everyone, ugly haircuts, crooked flattops and Mohawks are on the way!
I drove through Big Bear Lake, CA [in the San Bernardino Forest] about 2 weeks ago, and was amazed to see so many homes for sale at this time of the year. I even saw few “reduced” signs, too.
I guess people sell their vacation home(s) before their primary home when they are in financial stress?
I saw an interesting sign today that said: “New Price.” That was the first time that I saw something besides “Reduced Price.” Of course, with 50 to 100 year old houses going for over $250,000+, I stay in my $540/month, south windowed, looking into a courtyard, all utilities paid, studio.
I noticed the same thin in lake tahoe when I was there a couple of months ago. It seemed like every other house was for sale.
Ditto in Idyllwild, everything for sale, prices ludicrous.
Neighbors of my curent project have been after me to stop by and give them a price for an addition. Finally find some time and stop over. Nice people but looking around they don’t seem to be the type that has the 50K they’re gonna need just sitting in the bank.
No problem. The plan is to refinance in the spring when they want to start. By then I guess their house will surely have appreciated by 50K.
New real estate channel on cable television, 24-7. They must really want to move some inventory.
Funny you mention this. Just today, I was trying to remember what sort of advertising RE agents did during the last downturn in CA. Remembered the RE channel and wondered if they would bring that back. Guess they did.
Richmond BC, adjacent to Vancouver.
Hundreds and hundreds of for sale signs are cropping up everywhere, some with Air Miles incentives on the sign and ballons for open houses, something almost unheard oflast year.
The psychology has definitely changed here in the last couple weeks and almost everyone I talk to suddenly knows that the market is turning and many expect an absolute crash in 2007.
Victoria BC…my realtor tells me not to buy now as the top is in and supply is growing and very little is selling with some listings as old as 8 months.
Reports from Whistler are that the market there has been dead for months and there are price reductions showing up.
Vancouver. I see a few price reduced signs now, never saw that in the past 3 years. Speaking of signs, one of my cleients owns a huge screen printing company there that specializes is real estate signs and he reports that some realtors are whinging.
Report from Nanaimo regarding all points north on Vancouver Island (Campbell River, Courtenay etc) ….prices tumbling now, buyers market.
I live just south of you on the Olimpic Penninsula & send most of the summer on my boat in BC. From what I have looked at you are about 6 months behind us and soon to catch up depending how fast we fall from here.
“Our inventory of available homes is huge as we shift into an era when no one wants to be the last person to buy a home at its most expensive price.”
Last one to buy is a rotten egg!
Here in Reno, the local RE parade of Homes is now running all day Saturday, in addition to nightly at 10:00. On their show yesterday, an agent interviewed a mortgage broker who said: “even if you work the graveyard shift, we can get you into a 100% financed loan, so that you can have the home of your dreams”!!
Wow, sounds good- let me go into debt forever, just so I can have that home I cant afford!
Here in Reno, the local RE parade of Homes is now running all day Saturday, in addition to nightly at 10:00. On their show yesterday, an agent interviewed a mortgage broker who said: “even if you work the graveyard shift, we can get you into a 100% financed loan, so that you can have the home of your dreams”!!
Wow, sounds good- let me go into debt forever, just so I can have that home I cant afford!
“Thus far layoffs among homebuilders have been minimal, and real estate agents say their numbers are still strong.”
Quick comment about the above comment via AZ Association of realtors….they are counting their members (the ones current with dues)…there is no way to count “layoffs” for agents. They pay their dues a year in advance, and they may not have sold a damn thing.
Those numbers will change as renewals are sent out, and not returned….these dues are pretty hefty for an agent who hasn’t made a sell…in my area is something like $750-800 per year.
I don’t know if this is common but today I saw for the first time a RE sign in a front yard with the price sitting above the FOR SALE sign.
Instead of a big “Price Reducted” on top, it said “$399,999.00″ for all to see. That was on a 4 bd/ 2 ba here in Natomas (Sacramento). I have witnessed first hand sellers chasing the prices down here. In Jan/Feb ‘06 the price would have been $460,000.00 easily but still not much is selling.
This seems like a change because some flyers either don’t even list the price or you have to get out a magnifying glass to find where it’s listed.
I’ve always loved that trick where they want you to waste your time asking about the price instead of simply posting it up front. Could you imagine shopping for most anything else like that? “So how much is this loaf of bread?” “Well, let’s talk about it and see if we can finance it for you…” or something.
The latest gag down here in Maryland is to list a monthly payment instead of the actual price. Of course, who knows what creative loans are used to generate that monthly payment! Argh!
I received an email from someone from Ziprealty. The subject was “TIME TO BUY”, of course!
“If you have been waiting for a Buyers Market, It is here! Home prices have come down significantly in our area.
Pick any house and you will see it is priced below the December, 2005, and my bet is that the Seller will take under the listing price.
I am selling homes every week. Buyers need to be concerned about the interest rates.
So the time to make your move is now.
If I can help you, and give you 20% of my commission, please let me know.”
I replied that a realtor always thinks it’s a good time to buy. When prices drop 40 or 50% and revert to the mean, then I’ll buy.
When I went to the website to check listings, I noticed she had removed my search criteria for that area.
bwahahahahaaa!! :O
Dont know if Went to some model homes up in Sommerset (Sonterra development)Very large,high end, homes here in Reno. The first home was 3700sq the salesgirl mentioned any home was availble without the second floor. As we walked up to the first mCMansion, a chalk board greeted us inside the entry which said: “Special - take 150K off the price of this home” No deadlines or anything else mentioned…thats a start anyway. I cant imagine the poor souls who bought their identical home recently, who now have lost that amount and more from this builder. Another model home had a 75K reduction on price. After leaving the last home, something odd we noticed was that a portion of the fencing that use to keep potential buyers on the grounds and made you walk back through the office after checking out the models was now actually torn out of the ground, with the posts still sticking up. Wow, Hallelujah, we had a clean break to our car without passing thriugh the sales office! Drove through the development - fewer than a quarter homes with cars in front, and a couple of realtor signs out front, this development is a long way to felling built or sold out. Area is at ground zero for the Verdi fire was right three weeks ago, charred gound up to the thoughfare streets. We went to another development and again, the posts for fencing was up, but not completed, could just walk right into the models, no salespeople to talk to and unfinished details throughout the homes.
MLS 26142194 sums up everything that is wrong with current Seattle area prices.
Ft2=1240
Bed=3
Bath=1.75
1) 1996 price=$177K
2) 2006 “Fair Price” assuming 4% per year=$262K
3) Improvements=$25K (a guess)
4) 2006 “Total Fair Price”=$262K+$25K=$287K
Zillow Zestimate=$590K (Overpriced by 51%)
MLS List Price=$749K (Overpriced by 62%)
What am I missing here? This is a small crappy 1950’s rambler!!!
Here in Maine, I was lucky enough to find a buyer (in May) for my one and only house. The closing is next week and she hasn’t shown any sign of trying to pull the plug. At the same time, my plans to return to CA went up in smoke and I decided to seek a rental here. Have rented a “spec” house where the asking price is 47 times the annual rent. (Get real.) Of course, the rent will go up as soon as the builder gets enough money to finish the work. Right now he has to work full time for others just to pay the interest.