‘Now Is Not A Time To Speculate On Homes’
The Union Leader reports from New Hampshire. “State revenues were off by 6 percent in August, pulled down by a plummeting real estate transfer tax and sagging rooms and meals returns. The biggest disappointment to budget writers is the real estate transfer tax.”
“Department of Administrative Services Commissioner Don Hill said the real estate market has peaked and is now in decline. ‘The real estate bubble is broken. The high mortgage rates don’t help,’ he said.”
The Providence Journal from Rhode Island. “The real estate agent who finds a buyer for a $5.8-million house in Jamestown will receive a 2007 Mercedes CLK 350 convertible. The Mercedes is an extreme perk, but many sellers, at all levels of the market, are offering a little extra to help reel in buyers, and motivate their agents.”
“Often, the incentives come after several months on the market, and more than one price reduction, have failed to produce a buyer. For people who need to sell their houses and have a deadline, it’s a frustrating experience, said (realtor) Wendy Wagenbach.”
“‘They just feel like they’re just giving and giving and giving at this point,’ she said. ‘Buyers are just taking their time’ and ‘the people who are under the pressure [to sell] are really kind of frantic at this point.’”
“Janet Neff, a sales associate in North Kingstown, says she has not witnessed any unusual concessions by sellers other than ‘the willingness to reduce’ the price of their property. ‘I don’t perceive it as a bad market at all,’ even though ‘we’re flooded with inventory right now,’ she said.”
“Neff said it’s not necessarily a bad thing that buyers have the time to shop around and compare properties before making an offer. Neff said, sellers ‘are giving me longer listing times’ to sell their houses. ‘It’s really impossible to sell a house quickly without really dumping it,’ she said.”
“Wagenbach said motivated sellers, who have to move for a job or who have made a financial commitment to purchase another house or condo, are doing ‘whatever it takes’ to sell their property.”
The Ridgefield Press from Connecticut. “‘Real estate is a cyclical business,’ said Richard Walter, president of the Ridgefield Board of Realtors. He and fellow real estate agents in town ‘are finding that prices have leveled and are coming down somewhat.’”
“As of June 1,305 single-family homes were on the market, up from 203 as of the same date in 2005, Mr. Walter said. While not as drastic as the imploding real estate bubble predicted by some financial analysts, the dip in the housing market here means that now ‘is not a time to speculate’ on homes in town, Mr. Walter said.”
“As for selling, Mr. Walter was still upbeat, though somewhat less effusive. ‘Homes will sell as long as they’re priced right.’ When it comes to choosing an asking price, Mr. Walter said sellers should let themselves ‘be guided by their Realtor’s recommendation.’ Of course, Mr. Walter added, keeping an available ‘house looking good’ can’t hurt.’”
“‘They just feel like they’re just giving and giving and giving at this point,’ she said. ‘Buyers are just taking their time’ and ‘the people who are under the pressure [to sell] are really kind of frantic at this point.’”
In the summer of 2005, sellers were taking, taking, taking. That’s capitalism and free market economics working, right?
But when the sellers have to start giving, giving, giving, the market is broken. Am I understanding this right?
Good morning Craven,
I know that you are in Essex County, MA…correct?
I am in Boston proper, but spend most of my time on the N. Shore.
What is your take on the N. Shore market? Other than it being “slow”, do you see big selling price drops coming? I see listing prices dropping like a rock, but I don’t think selling prices have done much more than moderate….your thoughts?
I think the North Shore is still in the seller denial, buyer/seller stalemate phase. Inventory was increasing month by month, but I noticed it just took a little dive, probably listings expiring on September 1. We’ll see another surge over the next week as these listings reappear — probably with meaningless 2-5% reductions, if at all.
I personally know people trying to sell homes who are in complete denial about the current market situation. Example #1 is someone trying to sell a very average house for about 20% more than recent comps, against their Realtor’s advice that this was far too high of an asking price. They wonder why they’ve had no offers since it was listed - 120+ days ago.
Lots of Kool-Aid drinkers around here, too. Conversations typically go “yeah, it’s a little scary right now, but it won’t go down much, and will come right back”.
The city I live in is a very blue collar middle class city. The kind of place with lots of older people, cops, firefighters, teachers and so forth. These people cannot afford $500k houses, so I find it no coincidence that houses in this range just rot on the MLS. I believe my city, in particular, will have an extremely high foreclosure rate in the coming quarters as these sellers will prefer to give the keys to the bank rather than “give in” to buyers. There’s a kind of mentality around here that you just don’t compromise with people, or admit defeat. I think a lot of people would prefer to just go down with the ship.
The inside scoop on the drop in listings is that 1/2 went under agreement and the other 1/2 expired or withdrawn.
I kind of agree on the denial thing. The prices sure are “sticky”.
Do you mind me asking what city you live in?
Logically I can’t see how it makes sense to turn the keys over to the bank as they only care about getting the loan balance back.
Unless buyers are underwater.
I wasn’t aware of the stubborness thing
on the North Shore. That’s the sort of
thing that makes capitulation so violent
in the stock market. Though it’s easier to
ignore the dropping stock market. Just
don’t look at your statements. Housing is
harder as you have to make payments
every month.
Example #1 is someone trying to sell a very average house for about 20% more than recent comps…
-Perhaps there is a thin line between ‘Faith and Presumption’.
The homeowner ‘feels’ that their property is special. Because of this feeling they can’t discern between the two leading them down the road of denial. Sadly, this special feeling is a product of the media and greed … not economic soundness.
I saw this same situation happening in Costa Mesa, CA. Must be the modus operandi of sellers everywhere.
Rented in Costa Mesa while owning/living in North OC, CA (Fullerton). The price of the Fullerton house rose dramatically, but not as much as CM. Question is, are we “different?”
CM and Fullerton have no BLM to annex. The only building going on is infill at high prices. CM finally showing some houses at $650k. Hasn’t been that way for 2 years.
“‘They just feel like they’re just giving and giving and giving at this point,’ she said. ‘Buyers are just taking their time’ and ‘the people who are under the pressure [to sell] are really kind of frantic at this point.’”
The sellers are giving everything BUT price decreases, and that is the main thing that buyers want. And at 5.8 million, as a buyer I would certainly take my time about offering 2.8 million.
I finally understand the Ginzu Knives methodology of selling. More attention levied on properties by agents hoping to get the bonus gift of the Mercedes (on top of their ludicrous commission - at the 3% commission level, this would be $174K) with no special dispensation for the buyer. It’s all “what the deal will do for me.”
And if sellers are “kind of frantic” now - what chaos will ensue in 2007?
“The real estate agent who finds a buyer for a $5.8-million house in Jamestown will receive a 2007 Mercedes CLK 350 convertible.”
I hope to hell that the buyer’s agent discloses the “perk” to his buyers. Incentives like that are bound to blur the fiduciary relationship that the buyer’s agent is supposed to have with his clients. It’s getting borderline “payola” and “kickback”-appearing at that point. I wonder where the NAR is on this?
Unless the buyer is coming out of pocket to pay the agent. There is no fiduciary relationship between selling agent and buyer. The agent is a representative of the seller even though he is working with the buyer.
I would think NAR has no problem with this. However, I’m kind of curious whether this violates RESPA.
In reality someone buying a 5.8 million dollar house probably doesn’t care if the agent gets a Benz as a bonus.
Unless the buyer is coming out of pocket to pay the agent. There is no fiduciary relationship between selling agent and buyer. The agent is a representative of the seller even though he is working with the buyer.
——————
MIS, in my experience, very few (if any) buyers actually know this. Of course, most buyers (including myself) think the commission come out of their pockets, especially if everyone else (seller, listing & selling agent) is making money off the buyer — after all, it’s the buyer’s money that is being used to pay all these people.
IMO, this sort of kickback needs to be disclosed. I have no idea how anyone thinks this should be legal, much less ethical. It’s one of the reasons I hesitate to use a buyer’s (seller’s) agent. I want someone who will get me the best house at the best price, not someone who is driven by commission/kickbacks.
Exactly! The market’s fine. And if there was a way to “sell houses short”, it would be a great time to speculate on home.
Actually, I don’t think any professional investor ever tries to make money buying and selling houses. They make money building houses for suckers, or doing true renovations (not just adding granite countertops) of distressed housing.
I’m certain even Toll or KB knew their stock would burst. Their only real option was to talk it up well, make $$$ while they could, and try to out-survive their competition during the slump when they go back into the land acquisition business, etc.
“But when the sellers have to start giving, giving, giving, the market is broken. Am I understanding this right?”
Yes. Something similar happened during The Great Crash of 1929. This is a passage from Galbraith’s book on the subject:
“The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost.
The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a recorded 12,894,650 shares sold on 24 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruiness fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.”
It is usually darkest not before dawn, but rather just right before the lights go out entirely.
Yeah, but we have helicopters now.
Do American helicopters work better than the Japanese models?
Where is Godzilla?
‘Now Is Not A Time To Speculate On Homes’
I got to write this down.
“The biggest disappointment to budget writers is the real estate transfer tax.” ..Great! now State Gov is dependant on the bubble.
“The real estate bubble is broken. The high mortgage rates don’t help,”…WTF? How is a 30 yr fixed at 6.50% considered a high interest rate? It isn’t even high, when compared to the 5.50% of recent times.
“I don’t perceive it as a bad market at all,’ even though ‘we’re flooded with inventory right now,’ she said.” ….‘It’s really impossible to sell a house quickly without really dumping it,’ she said.”….WTF/HUH? Time for Nike jump suits and sneakers.
The Providence Journal from Rhode Island. “The real estate agent who finds a buyer for a $5.8-million house in Jamestown will receive a 2007 Mercedes CLK 350 convertible. The Mercedes is an extreme perk, but many sellers, at all levels of the market, are offering a little extra to help reel in buyers, and motivate their agents.”
Sorry folks, a $75,000 car on a $5.8 million dollar home is not extreme. Why not offer a Bently, Rolls, Ferrari, Lambo or some other really high vehicle?
now State Gov is dependant on the bubble.
And Fed: real estate agent income, construction worker income, home builder’s employee income, building materials employee income, etc.
And smaller revenues: R.E. licenses, appraisal license, inspection fees (at least the city/county/state code construction inspections).
And property taxes.
And all those municipal retirees (police, firefighters, school teachers, gov. office workers) who’s retirement money are dependent on REIT, MBS (mortgage backed securities), and other R.E. related income generators. How many of these retirees will be forced to go back to work again?!?!?
The city I work for has been spending like drunken sailors. The management and elected officials are all young and have never seen a serious, long-term decline in the economy, and certainly not of real estate. They honestly believe that tax revenue will always go up and they spend accordingly. Like the US gov, they’ve unknowingly or uncaringly committed to many long-term projects that I’m not sure they understand. Infrastructure is crumbling while they continue to pump quality of life projects. Either scenerio, inflation or deflation, will bring all this to an end I’m afraid.
Prop 13 made cities less dependent upon property taxes. Now they are dependent upon consumer retail sales taxes. Ohhh, smooth move.
…and the state more dependent upon income taxes. Yet another “smooth move”.
“And all those municipal retirees (police, firefighters, school teachers, gov. office workers) who’s retirement money are dependent on REIT, MBS (mortgage backed securities), and other R.E. related income generators. How many of these retirees will be forced to go back to work again?!?!?”
Municipal retirees will be sitting pretty …. Unlike private companies, which can jettison pension plans in bankruptcy (and foist them onto the PBGC), most states and municipalities cannot get out from under their pension obligations. I believe the New York state constitution, for example, explicitly protects state and local pension benefits for civil servants. The taxpayers will end up being screwed, as large and larger proportions of the government’s budget must go to pension and health care benefits to retired civil servants. Inevitably, taxes will need to rise to cover this rich benefits. The vast majority of people who work in the private sector (who, more and more, must rely on their own contributions to 401ks for retirement) will be expected to pay more and more taxes to support bloated pension and health care benefits for retired government employees. This has to cause a true taxpayer revolt at some stage!!
What happens if the municipality goes bankrupt, like O.C. did before?
Just as bankrupcies allowed private/public companies to “hand the keys” [of pension fund] back to the taxpayers, won’t the local government do the same [to the feds which means we taxpayers end up with the bill]? Whether the problem stays local to the state or to the Fed, we’ll all fell the pain.
And to think that
were started over a tea tax [among many other griefs, of course].
In the case of New York City, I remember reading that the teacher unions + some other union investment plans actually purchased city bonds to prevent the city from becoming insolvent ( and thus being unable to pay pensions to the retired union members ) after Pres Ford denied them funding.
Actual 1975 Daily News headline:
FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD
Oh, good. If those union investments are R.E. related [and they start down the spiral as MBS goes bust, REIT stops paying dividend, etc.], they won’t have the funds to buy out the city bonds…
I don’t know if the prez nor the congress will have the guts to say to the unknown number of cities, counties and even states, “drop dead.”
The level of taxes and/or service cuts necessary would be entirely unrealistic, and would truly lead to a taxpayer revolt. Any wagers on how fast all these constitutional protections will be amended out????
Note: The car goes to the real estate agent, not the buyer…
Dare I go out on a limb here and say that perhaps it was *never* “the time to speculate in homes”? Give me a break! It was a bad idea, start to finish.
Why? I’ll tell you why. I am the person who earns the national average wage. And I can tell you that I, and millions like myself, am hurt when housing becomes an investment.
Please don’t misunderstand. I don’t begrudge anyone the opportunity to invest, especially for retirement. Let’s face it. Most of us can’t count on a pensions these days, and I certainly don’t count on a penny from Social Security. So I say, more power to all of those who post here and know how to make money by investing. My hat is off to you.
But I just hate it that housing has become an “investment”…and a speculative one at that. Sheesh!
Specualte..true.
Invest..now that is a different story. I think buying rentals in a fairly valued marker, may make sense.
Buying a fixer-upper, renovating it, improving it, removing the neighborhood’s only “haunted house is a good thing. Making a fair profit as well, another good thing….
Now buying and flipping for big $$ with only minor improvements, or buying new construction to trade like stocks…that’s something different.
I guess that I think of someone who is buying rentals that are fairly priced as a landlord, not exactly the same thing as an investor. Same thing with fixing up a house. There, you are adding value. I have not problem with either of those types of purchases.
When I talk about “investors,” I’m talking about the people who thought they’d buy a house, sit on it, and sell it for a profit. That I have a big problem with.
But I fully admit that I may be using the incorrect terminology. I work in healthcare. What can I say?
Peggy,
Purchaser: Buy for their own use/consumption.
Investor: Buy with the intent of adding value and generating income; i.e. landlord or renovator
Speculator: Buy with the intent of riding a trend while doing nothing to add value.
Thanks! That helps.
hey ric, that’s what I was trying to get at with my comments, but you did a much better job of it.
Exactly! If housing were such a great investment, Warren Buffent would have bought Condos, not insurance and candy companies!
Housing is promoted to suckers as an investment the same way penny stocks are via “spam”. The entire industry colluded to
1. Make lots of credit available to stupid people with no money down or qualifications, and nasty terms (i/o!)
2. Make product to sell to these stupid people with their cheap (at first!) money.
I have no regrets that I saved up 20% for the downpayment on my first house, got a FIXED mortgage, and bought my second property with CASH. Even though I could have “afforded” something much bigger, according to the “howmuchamonth” people, I have no worries! (And enjoy laughing at the idiots.)
Funny the similarity thses days between modern real estate/banking practices and the car business. The “car guys” train their sales staff to “land” a customer on the monthly payment. Once they agree to that, they work backwards (whilst slipping in plenty of profit on the front and back-end for themselves). It drives the “car guys” crazy when some educated customer gets in their face and says: “I don’t care about the payment–what price are you selling me the car for?” And heaven help the “car guys” if the customer has their financing arranged already.
MBs are doing this to the unsophisticated home buyers. They overqualify/overextend their borrowers and then hand them over to the hungry-eyed realtor who can now show them all these “bright and shiny” properties. CHA-CHIIIINNNNGGGG!!
Maybe they are right when they say that some people weren’t owners for a REASON.
The proper landlord provides a service. I did rent and I appreciate that some company did the building, maintenance, repairs so that I had a place to live. They presumeably made a profit off of me renting but they provided me value.
“The high mortgage rates don’t help,’ he said.”
What high mortgage rates? Rates are still historically low, or does he think we should go back to giving away free money?
“What high mortgage rates? Rates are still historically low.”
I must be in a mood today, but boy would I like to see that tatoo’d on every FB’s forehead. If you cannot afford a house at today’s rate, you cannot afford a house, period.
And of course I mean, 20% down, 30- or 15-year mortgage, depending on your age.
Grrrrr….
I personally felt like I was being robbed when interest rates were dropping and dropping and
dropping to the point where money markets
were paying as little as 0.10%. I think that we’re in the average range on the low side. When we bought our house, 30-year rates were over 10%.
Regarding NH revenues: the state has had a lot of budget problems for the last decade due to educational funding and the lawsuits that drove the state to provide funding (local districts used to provide most of the funding until the Claremont suit).
The drop in real estate transfer tax is not surprising. The drip in tourism revenue may be due to unseasonably cool weather in August after a very hot July.
The drop in communications taxes may mean that folks are dropping cable tv or broadband internet or maybe even *gasp* cell phone usage though I wouldn’t think so given all the people I see on the road using them while driving.
And maybe the increase in tobacco and liquor reflect folks getting some small pleasures in life instead of big and expensive pleasures.
Summer’s over and last weekend wasn’t so good and this one is rain, rain, rain.
One bright picture in the revenue picture is the interest and dividends tax. Well, that’s what happens when rates go from 3% to over 5% and folks start socking money away in CDs and money markets. My guess is that the amount people sock away in savings is small compared to the transfer tax in the past few years.
And how much is NH [and local governments'] pension funds are invested in MBS, REIT and other RE “investments?”
This is a little bit OT, but I just spent three days in Denver. I’m kind of a regular guy, so I like to talk to the hotel workers whenever I can. They can usually give you a lot of good tips about where to eat and things to do. The shuttle driver told me business at the hotel has been down the last few months. He thinks people are beginning to cut back on travel a little bit. I noticed it in the attitude of everyone at the hotel and restaurants that work for tips. Seems everyone is being a little nicer. I know the room rates have come down a couple of dollars since the last time I stayed there. Declining, or stagnant, rates equals less tax revenue for the cities.
To follow your OT thread: I live in rural NAz and my anecdotal observation is that there seem to be noticeably fewer commercial jets flying over us lately. We are under several major jetways that cross the country (especially coast-to-coast). I am an aviation buff, so I tend to look up at every plane that flies over. Is there another unreported story here?
Very good analysis, Michael, as usual.
I know Ridgefield pretty well. It’s a small town of rich New York stockbrokers who face a horrible commute every day. 305 houses on the market there is probably a tenth of the entire housing stock.
The Joe Stockbrokers probably realized that leaving the house at 4:00 in the morning, driving to New Canaan, getting on the train to Stamford, taking another train to Grand Central, then getting on a subway to Downtown (and reversing this 9 hours later) is a really shitty commute.
There are some number of IBM execs that live there too…Somers and Armonk are quite a bit closer.
But yeah, it’s wildly inflated. OTOH, it is one of the nicer areas to live anywhere.
[quote] “As of June 1,305 single-family homes were on the market, up from 203 as of the same date in 2005, Mr. Walter said. While not as drastic as the imploding real estate bubble predicted by some financial analysts, the dip in the housing market here means that now ‘is not a time to speculate’ on homes in town, Mr. Walter said.”[/quote]
Wow, 6 times the supply in Ridgefield, CT as compared to the same time last year. Yeah, it’s just leveling out…
OT Is ‘John the Bruce’ an allusion to ‘Robert the Bruce’? I am Scottish.
It sure is. And, BTW - if it’s not Scottish, it’s crap.
LOL!
It’s not six times — it’s 305 homes as of June 1, not 1,305 as of June.
“Department of Administrative Services Commissioner Don Hill said the real estate market has peaked and is now in decline. ‘The real estate bubble is broken. The high mortgage rates don’t help,’ he said.”
What high mortgage rates? Certainly we are currently enjoying lower rates than at 90% of the rest of the past forty years?
“‘It’s really impossible to sell a house quickly without really dumping it,’ she said.”
Then why is it that financial institutions prefer to unload REO by auction, rather than hiring a Realtor (TM) to troll indefinitely for a buyer? I don’t believe that auction sales would be used by firms unless they were likely to result in a smaller loss. The problem with fishing when the market is going down is that the price trend is not your friend.
They just feel like they’re just giving and giving and giving at this point,’ she said.
Talk about DENSE! Just tell the speculators to lower their prices! And not by just $3k. I’m talking *at least* 30% off. (You know, like Office Depot!) duh!
If I found out that my agent was receiving a 55K car for “finding” me to buy a house, I would demand that the same amount be taken off the purchase price. If it were not, I’d back out of the deal. I’m not going to be the vehicle for some realtor to get a new car (all puns intended).
‘Now Is Not A Time To Speculate On Homes’
These days, nobody seems to be saying anymore that “it appears that housing prices have reached a permanently high plateau,” as prices are actually going down in many markets formerly known as frothy. But even in the event that prices levelled off to a permanently high level, it would not be a good time to speculate, because you only could make money if prices were going up quickly enough to cover the negative cash flow you would generate by financing a purchase and renting out the home for less than PITI.
NH’s problem is that it want to provide decent services with the lowest state and local taxes in the country. Works fine during temporary windfalls. Not so well otherwise.
Decent gov services at the lowest cost? Who thought up this dumb idea?
how about chopping some goldbrick gov workers- what have theay ever accomplished ?
doe-hud- doe (ED)
all useless
Our state legislators get paid $100 a year. The guys in
MA get six figures I think. If not six, then pretty close.
That’s why MA got the “Big Dig” and NH didn’t.
Well those salaries are for state legislators.
Massachusetts was a huge powerhouse in bringing home the bacon at the Federal level for many, many years. But the many
years of corruption have come back to haunt the state bigtime.
It’s added a cost to doing business in the state that can’t be shaken and business has just made the decision to go elsewhere.
Larry,
The problem is that newcomers to the state, who came in part because of the low taxes, also want the same level of services they got in their previous high-tax state.
Meanwhile, the state-funded portion of Medicare continues to rise …
When we moved here about 18 years ago,
it was very quiet and if you wanted services,
you paid for them yourselves.
A lot of folks from MA have moved over the
border to Southern NH for the lower housing prices and lower cost of living (as was mentioned) and they expect the services from MA. No such thing as a free lunch so our legislature spends a lot of time trying to tax the person behind the tree.
The increases in housing prices haven’t been friendly to the people that were here
two decades ago that don’t have the professional jobs that many that moved in do have and have had a much harder time paying the property taxes that keep going up. Which is why you see a tax revolt up here every once in a while. They only slow down spending for a little while.
If you have a nice place to live, don’t tell anyone else. Or they’ll move to your city or town for the nice things and bring along the things that cause them to move from where they came from.
Don’t forget NH also got the years of tax breaks with Pease AFB and Portsmouth Naval Shipyard one which is out of commission and one which is severely reduced and probably due for a final chop soon.
The big drag on growth for NH is going to be NIMBYism. The cost of living is simply too high for the local incomes and young people are leaving in droves. NIMBYism used to be confined to other New England states but it has spread like a terminal virus to New Hampshire. A lot of out of staters move in, fall in love with the state, and do everything they can (through zoning) to keep it exactly the way they want it. This is great for preserving “rural charm” but it is horrible for young people who would like to be able to afford to live where they grew up.
It seems that a lot of people in New England (along with many other parts of America) just don’t get it. Outsourcing is having a very real effect on business practices. The push is always to lower costs, including salaries. The states that are able to lower their business costs are the ones that will prosper. Those with high business costs had better have some excellent redeeming attributes (this is what Massachusetts is trying unsuccessfully to do at the moment).
“high mort rates ” ???
yo, they’re down big time on the 15/30 year
Those are real mortgages. Nobody uses those anymore, duh.
Additionial color on declining real estate tax transfer from the New Hampshire item:
Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword:
http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=russwinter&nextdate=9%2f3%2f2006+23%3a59%3a59.999
The next big tourist attraction in NH is foliage and it will be interesting to see how hotel prices go. Typically hotels book up pretty solid for the leaf-peepers. If that doesn’t happen, then the ski season may not be so good either. My indicator is a big sign on the highway for a Motel 6 as to what their prices are for a room.
(The problem is that newcomers to the state, who came in part because of the low taxes, also want the same level of services they got in their previous high-tax state. Meanwhile, the state-funded portion of Medicare continues to rise …)
Then they’ll have to pay. You can’t get something for nothing from the government without screwing the next generation. Of course the reverse can happen and does in NY, the opposite extreme on the tax situation from NH.