September 3, 2006

‘It’s Hard To Accept That Prices Are Going Down’

The LA Times reports on the condo market. “Buyers seeking condos have scads to choose from, but if it’s bargains they want, they should probably hang tight a bit longer. It’s unclear how long these high prices will last, but appreciation rates already have slowed dramatically.”

“If history is a guide, condo and single-family-home prices will ‘dance to the same tune,’ said John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick, meaning that the two types of housing will adjust together. Condos and single-family homes have historically declined in tandem the first 5% to 7% of a market slide. Condo prices then tend to drop slightly more.”

“Condos and single-family homes are sitting on the market longer than last year in part because sellers are holding out for top dollar and buyers aren’t jumping into purchases, waiting to see if prices will fall. ‘I had 50 buyers bidding on 25 condos a year ago,’ said Walt Tamulinas, an agent in Yorba Linda. ‘Now I have 75 condos with 25 bidders.’”

“In downtown Los Angeles, there is a glut of units, said Stephen May, a veteran broker. The broker’s sales count through June of this year is half that of the same period last year, he said. Today, seven condo units are listed for every one that sells.”

“May recently represented a seller who had bought a condo last November for $385,000. She listed it in early July for $485,000, with a warning from May that she should be prepared to reduce the price. She quickly did, to $450,000, then $419,000, the price of five others for sale in the building. May urged her to drop the price to $395,000, which would set her apart from the others, but she refused and the sales contract expired. The condo no longer is listed.”

“‘Her property isn’t worth what she wanted it to be,’ May said. ‘It’s hard to accept that prices are going down.’”

“Gary Schaffel in Van Nuys, a prolific San Fernando Valley builder of condos ranging from $500,000 to $1 million per unit, said he’s taking a more conservative approach about future deals. ‘We’re keeping the same pace for the projects that are already rolling,’ Schaffel said. ‘But I want to see the land prices dip more before I make future land purchases.’”

The Half Moon Bay Review. “Slipping home sales across the nation have left Coastside real estate professionals rethinking the local market. ‘One thing is for certain,’ said agent Jack Wagstaff. ‘It’s not a seller’s market anymore.’”

“John Gieseker, president of the San Mateo County Association of Realtors, attributed the slump to higher interest rates and a steady, but unsustainable period of growth that has occurred over previous years. ‘The kind of double-digit growth we’ve had can’t go on forever,’ he said. ‘Markets have to fluctuate.’”

“‘I’d say that demand is still there,’ said Cid Young, a Realtor in Moss Beach. ‘But the ‘wealth effect’ is dropping. People are having to suggest more realistic asking prices when they put their homes on the market. You just have to remember: it’s not last year’s market. Get over it,’ she said.’




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109 Comments »

Comment by Brad
2006-09-03 11:27:08

OT : Housing Casts a Shadow on Outlook for Banks

http://tinyurl.com/odbte

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 11:37:38

“‘I’d say that demand is still there,’ said Cid Young, a Realtor in Moss Beach. ‘But the ‘wealth effect’ is dropping. People are having to suggest more realistic asking prices when they put their homes on the market. You just have to remember: it’s not last year’s market. Get over it,’ she said.’

Last year’s demand was bloated by flippers, investors, second-home buyers, and subprime borrowers who were all happy to pay unaffordable prices because loans were easy to obtain and everyone knew real estate prices would keep going up into the indefinite future. Now that a receding tsunami tide has left falling prices in its wake, real US housing prices are just barely off their all-time record high levels in many markets, and the only kind of demand which makes sense is fundamental demand for a home as a place to live in. It will be very difficult to say what a rational buyer should be willing to pay before we learn the fates of all those caught swimming naked when the tide went out.

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 12:00:48

http://www.freecondobook.com (pdf)

(I post on CL as “lowcarb”)

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-09-03 12:20:04

That is a great looking book.

“Life is to be enjoyed to its fullest not just to be lived. It must be challenged daily.”

 
 
Comment by amoney
2006-09-03 20:23:00

It wasn’t just last year’s demand. More like the past 4 years or so. Those gains will be reversed and then some in the coming years.

Comment by CA renter
2006-09-04 01:40:19

With you on that, amoney!

 
 
Comment by peterbob
2006-09-04 15:31:36

The important question is “What is this house worth?” This is important because once buyers AND sellers have some idea of where real prices will ultimately be headed, prices can then be adjusted downward and then the market can get moving again.

My two cents is that prices must drop to historical price/rent ratios. This is because many important factors drive rents, such as population growth, wages, jobs, etc. So looking at the historical ratio or prices to rents is important. In many areas of the country, prices must fall by about 40% to about 2003 levels.

So I’d say that unless someone is willing to sell at 2003 prices, don’t even bother. Prices, IMO, will eventually get there, but we may need to wait some years for inflation (currently running at about 4%) to chip away at the real prices.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 11:40:15

“Condo prices then tend to drop slightly more.”

I think he inadvertently left the word “quickly” off the end of this sentence. Because 5% to 7% will just barely start the price correction needed to absorb record inventory of new and used homes for sale and to bring supply back into balance with demand.

 
Comment by looking4mee
2006-09-03 11:40:18

‘I had 50 buyers bidding on 25 condos a year ago,’ said Walt Tamulinas, an agent in Yorba Linda. ‘Now I have 75 condos with 25 bidders.’”

and

“…to $450,000, then $419,000, the price of five others for sale in the building.”

I think it is safe to say that there will now be yoy declines every month going forward. The above two statements from the LA times shows just how fast things have changed.

Comment by togoplease
2006-09-03 12:39:52

But But But… my realtor told me last year was going to be priced out.

 
Comment by david cee
2006-09-03 20:40:42

I don’t believe there are still 25 buyers bidding. BS

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2006-09-03 11:40:48

“‘Her property isn’t worth what she wanted it to be,’ May said. ‘It’s hard to accept that prices are going down.’”

- ‘It’s hard to accept

Yes it is hard to accept that you are going to be hosed. The owners think that they are in a Celebrity Poker game….and of course they are the star. They push their chips ‘All In’ - and somehow think that their weak hand will come out a winner. WTF!

Comment by Brad
2006-09-03 11:56:22

“Yes it is hard to accept that you are going to be hosed. The owners think that they are in a Celebrity Poker game….and of course they are the star. They push their chips ‘All In’ - and somehow think that their weak hand will come out a winner. WTF!”
————————————————————–
“If you’re in a poker game and you don’t know who’t the patsy, you’re it.”
-Warren Buffett

 
Comment by Brad
2006-09-03 11:57:48

“‘Her property isn’t worth what she wanted it to be,’ May said. ‘It’s hard to accept that prices are going down.’”
————————————————————
“Broke is the new Black.”
-txchick

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 12:12:05

Did txchick really say that? LOL! :)

Comment by Left LA Behind
2006-09-03 13:06:36

Before anyone actually starts thinking that TxChick was making a racist comment, which I am assuming you might have, “new black” is a fashion term. “XXXX is the new black” often refers to the latest fashion color - ex: pastels, white, or whatever.

Keep up the witicisms, Txchick.

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Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 13:09:38

I got it when she first posted it.

I think most ppl on the board knew what she meant. Some trolls and lurkers may have been offended, but who cares?
ps I hear gray is the new black this season…

 
Comment by saywhat?
2006-09-03 13:48:33

Vogue says Red is the new Black…..how apropo

 
Comment by Left LA Behind
2006-09-03 13:55:38

90% of my wardrobe is black. Just like the late great Johnny Cash. Forturnately, 90% of my portfolio (0% real estate) is >in the

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 13:59:56

how were you able to post the GREATER THAN sign? I did that in the last thread and it kept cutting off my post at that symbol!!!

 
Comment by Left LA Behind
2006-09-03 14:07:46

As it did mine… meant to say, 90% of my portfolio is “in the black”

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2006-09-03 14:29:14

how were you able to post the GREATER THAN sign?

>

Ampersand then “gt” then semicolon, with no spaces.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-04 04:12:45

excellent - now if I could just remember this..

 
 
 
Comment by manhattanite
2006-09-03 13:14:06

RENTING is the new black!

Comment by guess who
2006-09-03 14:22:34

Hell, I am black and new what she meant. I found it funny, not offending.

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Comment by guess who
2006-09-03 14:24:21

Sorry, meant to say KNEW..typing too fast after midnight here in Europe.

 
 
 
Comment by Sd renter
2006-09-03 18:07:42

You had me at “broke.”

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 11:42:23

“‘Her property isn’t worth what she wanted it to be,’ May said. ‘It’s hard to accept that prices are going down.’”

What’s worse, it sounds like her property isn’t worth what she paid for it. That must make it awfully hard to keep eating that negative cash flow. :-)

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-09-03 12:00:05

Wait til she gets hit with 6% sales commish to unload that “investment” in near future. She will have to come to escrow with about 30k at a minumum. That doesn’t count the holding cost of this gem. Time to bring out your dead!

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-09-03 12:27:58

Looking forward to this bitch-flipper getting her azz spackled by reality. Welcome to Reality 101, dummy! Nothing funnier than upside-down flipper realizing that future holds major azz-whacking for them. LMAO!! There are probably millions of these idiots heading down the same track. Still LMFAO!!
Bring on the pain!!

 
 
 
Comment by CrazyintheOC
2006-09-03 11:45:32

It is so funny, there are so many people in denial about this thing. If you are in the LA area and want an eye opener listen to a radio show called House Calls on 97.1 FM on saturdays at 10:00AM. It is hosted by a RE broker, a mortgage broker and a RE lawyer. I have listened to it for the last two years. 2 years a ago they were saying “buy a house in LA, you cant lose, you definately will make 10-15% in appreciation a year”, now finally they are changing thier tune,A LITTLE. They are saying the market is softening a little but still they are denying a bubble (they insist the market will only go up 5-8% this year) and they have they nerve to say they “predicted” this “slight slow down”. They are now encouageing people to buy out of state. So if you want to get a laugh and hear the worst RE hooligans and liars I have seen in LA , catch this show.

Also I watch CNBC some mornings and they seem to play down the RE bubble and try to give more exposure to guests that say RE is still a good investment, this is reminiscent of the dotcom boom and bust. Of course after the fallout they all said, “we knew it”(the worst offender was Jim Cramer who was rewarded for his imcompetence with a new show and surely a bigger salary). I wonder why no one ever call these people after it is proven that they are wrong.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 11:52:00

Widely anticipated calamities often turn out less severe than anticipated. It is the utter cluelessness of LA- and OC-area real estate market participants that will lead to an excessively hard landing.

Comment by Brad
2006-09-03 12:04:23

“Widely anticipated calamities often turn out less severe than anticipated. It is the utter cluelessness of LA- and OC-area real estate market participants that will lead to an excessively hard landing.”
———————————————————————–
cluelessness: people who say a particular house is “worth” x amount of dollars. What a houses is currently quoted as or the asking price is not what it is “worth.” Lots of sellers like this lady will be ruined by what their condo or house turns out to be actually “worth.”

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-03 12:27:07

Wait a second . This lady bought this codo about 8 months ago for 385k and she expected to get 485k in 6 months ,(a 100k profit in six months ,what is that about 25% in 1/2 year )
I bet she didn’t put any money down either .
This is just nuts. If she wants to sell it now she is going to sell it for what she bought it for minus costs or even lower .

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Comment by CA renter
2006-09-04 01:51:22

Wiz,

It was not uncommon in SD to see people buying houses and flipping them (no improvements) for $100K+ within 6 months during the runup (mostly 2002 through 2004). What’s surprising about this clueless idiot is that the market obviously slowed in late summer/early fall 2005 — and she still bought with the intention of flipping.

Talk about lack of market research. These are the people who, enabled by lax lending, drove prices up so high. Totally clueless.

 
 
 
 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 13:17:51

I was just talking to my friend and I told her that I thought she was crazy to pay 700 for a house in the valley (1 1/2 yrs ago) and she is completely gutting it - new kitchen and bath upgrades - new wallboard, etc….so add 150 in upgrades.

She said: 700 doesn’t get you anything in LA. We are talking VALLEY GLEN - I guess this is near the Woodman exit off the 101.

Now this person makes about 120 a year, give or take. I assume they are not in an ARM because they are not that stupid, but I am wondering how they are coping with that mortgage.

I happen to think that house is worth 500 3 years from now.

Anyone concur or do you think I am nuts?

Comment by AE Newman
2006-09-03 14:07:51

” Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 13:17:51
I was just talking to my friend and I told her that I thought she was crazy to pay 700 for a house in the valley (1 1/2 yrs ago) and she is completely gutting it - new kitchen and bath upgrades - new wallboard, etc….so add 150 in upgrades.

She said: 700 doesn’t get you anything in LA. We are talking VALLEY GLEN - I guess this is near the Woodman exit off the 101.

Now this person makes about 120 a year, give or take. I assume they are not in an ARM because they are not that stupid, but I am wondering how they are coping with that mortgage.

I happen to think that house is worth 500 3 years from now.

Anyone concur or do you think I am nuts? ”

You are not nuts. I know this area very well and think you have been too kind for your 3 year outlook. IMHO it will get cut in half.
With my trusty “Interest Amortization Table” book and some modest, very modest est. for taxes and ins. at 30 year fixed in the very high 6’s you are looking at 5400-5600 per month. Say 5500 X 12 =66,000 per year or 50% of stated gross income! So much for the rule of 28%!
Mighty haircuts ah’ commin’ big baldy will be here soon enough!!!! Sell now and get a ugly flat-top.
BTY Woodman and 101 is the flats of the Valley. Not much good to say about the area even though they did change the name from Van Nuys.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 14:12:35

Yes! You are correct - it IS Van Nuys and it is NORTH of the Fwy.

I fear you are correct and my friend is just yet another FB….she is really in for it if the house goes down to 350-400 when it was 700+ 100-150 in upgrades.

She did not listen to me!!!!!

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Comment by tj & the bear
2006-09-03 18:56:22

A few weeks ago a realtor did a cheerleader piece in a local rag and stated that the median Valley home was $173K in 2001. Since the median is now over 250% higher, it’ll fall a lot farther than half.

 
Comment by david cee
2006-09-03 20:50:09

Dear M.B.A. Hope you can handle the ‘bad news” She listened to somebody, it is just that she didn’t happen to listen to YOU! Now, here’s where it really get tricky. So she starts making here $5500 a month payments, and the comps start selling for less. She then tells everyone she bought the house to live in for the long haul, and doesn’t matter what is happening to prices. Then she loses her job, becuase real estate has effected the economy. Now she calls you to listen to her sob story.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-04 04:16:45

Honestly, I am not sure I could listen to too much of that. That is one pity party I have no interest in.

Something like this was so foreseeable that it makes me question the sanity of recent buyers…

 
Comment by chilidoggg
2006-09-04 12:07:15

“Then she loses her job, becuase real estate has effected the economy.”

Indeed, we are all due to realize that real estate has “effected” the economy…

 
 
 
Comment by Happy LA Renter
2006-09-04 08:56:56

AE Newman said: “I happen to think that house is worth 500 3 years from now.”

The house is worth that TODAY!
They were crazy to pay that amount.
I live in Encino but I know most of the Valley pretty well. When I go to the store during the weekend I can’t help but notice the dozens of sale signs in every street corner. I have several friends that are trying to sell their homes and
they’ve been sitting on the market for months already.

 
 
Comment by togoplease
2006-09-03 15:17:24

” CNBC some mornings and they seem to play down the RE bubble”

You must be talking about the Red Head Liz… she so arragont and stupid… it makes me puke. There are plenty quests one the show that state there will be a hard landing.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 11:49:32

“‘The kind of double-digit growth we’ve had can’t go on forever,’ he said. ‘Markets have to fluctuate.’”

US condo investors to the Asians whose MBS purchases pushed down our mortgage rates to levels that tempted flippers to buy too many condos: “Fluctuations.”

Asian savers to US condo flippers: “Fluctuamericans.”

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-09-03 12:44:50

‘US condo investors to the Asians whose MBS purchases pushed down our mortgage rates to levels that tempted flippers to buy too many condos: “Fluctuations.”

Asian savers to US condo flippers: “Fluctuamericans.”

Ha! Good one, and suble!

 
 
Comment by GH
2006-09-03 11:56:08

“It’s unclear how long these high prices will last, but appreciation rates already have slowed dramatically.”

So prices are still appreciating, just at a dramatically slower rate? Where in Southern California?

Comment by LARenter
2006-09-03 12:09:55

Don’t listen to that, prices are currently FALLING in SoCal. We are at the finish line of this statistical glitch. This Fall YOY prices will have fallen.

 
 
Comment by Huh?
2006-09-03 11:56:53

go fluc yourself

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 17:50:09

Beware of flipper rage, on blogs and roadways…

 
 
Comment by DAVID
2006-09-03 12:09:33

“If history is a guide, condo and single-family-home prices will ‘dance to the same tune,’ said John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick, meaning that the two types of housing will adjust together.”

DUH THE WHEELS ON THE BUS GO ROUND AND ROUND AND ROUND AND ROUND SO EARLY IN THE MORNING DUH THE HOUSING MARKET GOES DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN SO EARLY IN THE CYCLE.

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-09-03 12:11:35

OT:

I just got my hardcopy of the Businessweek toxic mortgage issue.

Did anyone else check out the picture of the couple that is levered up on option ARMs in Portland, OR hoping to retire early.

Their underlying business is tattoo and body-piercing.

The picture tells a thousand words, I think the article was poking fun at them.

The sob stories were are respectable people with respectable jobs and the people in love with the option ARM are a couple with 4 sleeves of tattoos, big dangly piercings of all of their ears.

Kinda funny!

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 12:16:46

I’m going to buy that issue when it is available at B&N next Wednesday. Have you seen the businessweek.com website? There are additional online graphs and articles on the Toxic Mortgage.

Thank you for bringing this cover story to the Board’s attention.

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-09-03 12:24:43

Misstrial:

The article already had its own solo post on Ben’s Blog. See link below.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1365

Nothing regarding the housing bubble gets missed on this blog.

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 12:45:12

OK, I missed that one. Can’t wait for that issue to become available. :)

Also: Vico’s “book” is a good read - I just finished my copy.

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Comment by Brad
2006-09-03 12:20:03

LOL. I am hugely enjoying the specter of this magazine cover on newsstands all over America. The house having the life squeezed out of it by a money python. I’ll have to buy the hardcopy to get the tattoo/piercings photos.

 
Comment by Sobay
2006-09-03 12:57:43

Their underlying business is tattoo and body-piercing.

- Hey, Tattoo’s and Body Piercing are huge in So Ca.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 13:10:55

so are you saying TATs = ARMs?

Comment by SeattleMoose
2006-09-03 13:55:30

“TATS=ARMS?”

I told a girl she had nice “TATS” and got slapped.

So no, I don’t think most people equate TATS to arms.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-03 14:15:09

I told a girl she had nice “TATS” and got slapped.

I guess that only works if the girl has obvious TATs and not much else….

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Comment by jckirlan
2006-09-03 14:06:36

“May recently represented a seller who had bought a condo last November for $385,000. She listed it in early July for $485,000, with a warning from May that she should be prepared to reduce the price. She quickly did, to $450,000, then $419,000, the price of five others for sale in the building. May urged her to drop the price to $395,000, which would set her apart from the others, but she refused and the sales contract expired. The condo no longer is listed.”

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA
extended Peter Griffin laugh. Yeah it’s schandenfreude, not sour grapes, and yes I feel immature about doing it but revenge and knowledge that you were right all along, are plates both enjoyed cold.
I hated when “friends” looked down there noses at us for being frugal.
LOLOLOL LMAO ROTFLMAO. Oh well, maybe we can go down to the soup kitchen in out used paid off car and serve them Thanksgiving dinner when the tax man and the banker come knocking. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHA

 
Comment by Geoff
2006-09-03 14:18:32

News flash - Lereah finally caves to reality - BUT, then goes right back to spin. AMAZING!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115712015145751767.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_most_pop

In case you cant get on the WSJ site, scumbag’s “argument” is basically that now he is hoping for a 5-10% decline in prices in CA, and I assume other similar overpriced spots. Somehow, his logic motor tells him that this is going to bring buyers back. Oh yeh, let’s see, prices go up 100+%, and then right as they start to fall, yes, oh, that’s it, a bottom already. Uh huh. What a fricking idiot. I think he sees his career flashing before his eyes and has become completely desparate.

Comment by Mike_in_Fl
2006-09-03 16:16:57

I personally like the nickname I came up with a while back: “Abby Joseph Lereah.” He was a huge cheerleader on the way up … just like Abby Joseph Cohen was for the Nasdaq in the late 1990s. He was always trotted out before the cameras to talk about how great the fundamentals are. Then things went “Poof!” And now, it’s all “Well, uh, maybe things aren’t too good, but we just need a gentle decline, there aren’t any big worries, keep holding those 10 cash-flow negative rentals you bought with option ARMs for the ‘long term’ and you’ll be fine … blah, blah, blah.”

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 17:52:57

100%+ up since 1998, 50%+ down before the market returns to normalcy…

Comment by tj & the bear
2006-09-03 19:00:33

Come on GS… don’t forget the overshoot to the downside.

Comment by amoney
2006-09-03 20:30:27

The big reason for the overshoot will be the huge amount of inventory added during the past 4 years to meet the phony demand of flippers. We never had an inventory problem in this country, otherwise you would see rents rise.

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Comment by CA renter
2006-09-04 01:59:04

Don’t forget the recession/depression.

 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2006-09-04 04:29:30

Arguably, since ‘97-’99 was the price nadir it WAS the overshoot from 90s bubble. The question is, will hyperappreciation make the bubble overshoot even further on the downside. The price of housing won’t decline much below the time-value of the equivalent rent. Once buying is cheaper than renting from year one of your mortgage, buyers will start comming out of the woodwork. Now the overbuilding which lead to an oversupply of housing will lower rents but by how much?

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Comment by tj & the bear
2006-09-04 08:23:00

Even when owning is cheaper than renting, people won’t buy because they’ll be afraid of losing money due to values declining further. It’s simply the psychological flip side of the boom, wherein people paid a fortune more to own than rent simply because they expected to make money. There’s no rational thought involved; it’s all emotion.

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2006-09-04 08:28:30

Another thing… I’d argue that 97 was not an overshoot. AG and the incipient tech bubble were already goosing the economy, thereby putting an artificial floor on prices. Won’t happen this time around.

 
 
 
 
Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-09-03 20:35:58

its in the bag yeh 40% drops biatch lareah

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-03 14:33:22

Gary, Gary, GGGGAAAARRRRYYYY? Paging Mr. Watts, Mr. Watts, Mr. Watts. Some now F&CKED BORROWERS (BUYERS) need some encouragement. Please assure them of your famous “15% is in the BAG”. This lady in downtown LA is in need of that now that she is trying to flip.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-03 14:35:39

This blog has no room for racist comments. Somebody’s ethnicity, color, etc is not anything we had control over. But we do have plenty of room to make snippy comments about floppers, RealWhores, FBs, etc. They made their individual choice, and now will get the medicine of their greed. (Auger-inn), order some ass-poundings.

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 15:47:10

Not sure what post you’re referring to, but if you’re you’re referring to “Broke is the New Black” - that phrase “…. is the new black” is a twist on a well-known fashion term.

Throughout most of the 90’s and through 2001, black was THE color to wear. Minimalism was in fashion. (Although please feel free to disagree with me!)

Additionally, there is a new book out titled, “Bitter is the New Black” which refers to a young professional woman’s struggle to find employment in the ‘new economy.’

Another poster referred to Vogue magazine (latest issue, I have it) declaration that “Red is the New Black” (on the cover). Many women (and some men) understand the meaning of this term.

Has nothing to do with racism.

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-09-03 15:51:13

Where is the racist comment? I am lost? If you are talking about the “new black”, please get a life. You raised the race card. I’m sick of people raising up the race card! I am proud to be politically incorrect.

Comment by robin
2006-09-03 22:32:04

Was it the capitalization of “Black”, which might be used in a headline, vs. “black”, which would be proper for both color and race in the context of a sentence?

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-04 09:52:11

Only for someone who “occupies the room of the unlearned.”
Capitalization makes no difference. The phrase is used and has been used correctly either way.

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Comment by Ozarkian from Saratoga, CA
2006-09-03 16:55:57

But misogyny seems to be perfectly acceptable here. I love this blog but I tire of the regular use of sexist terms — e.g. RealWhores, etc.

Comment by TheGuru
2006-09-03 17:34:52

Whore is not a sexist comments as I have known both female and male whores. Most whores whore out themselves but “Realtwhores” whore out their “johns” (buyers).

Comment by Sd renter
2006-09-03 18:21:11

My buddy in the radio advertising sales biz often refers to himself as a radio whore. He doesn’t “buy” stuff for his marketing of the station, he “trades” radio time for it.

Thus, he is whoring himself out to whoever will be his John.

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Comment by sfv_hopeful
2006-09-05 16:23:23

Wouldn’t that make them “RealiPimps”? Maybe someone should create a new reality TV series, “Pimp This House” or “Pimp My Condo”.

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Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-03 17:54:40

RealWhores is sexist? Didn’t you ever hear of male prostitutes?

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-09-03 20:52:31

I am a computer software consultant traveling from state to state, city to city for a year, 18 months, and currently 42 months at a time. The guys I meet and I refer to our recruiters (in job shops) as pimps. We refer to ourselves as SS - Software sluts. Occasionally I meet female consultants. So far the ones I met refuse to call themselves software sluts.

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Comment by chilidoggg
2006-09-04 12:15:32

yes, there are “man-whores” who ply their “he-pussy” Didn’t you see Deuce Bigalow?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-03 14:37:47

“‘I’d say that demand is still there,’ said Cid Young, a Realtor in Moss Beach.

Yes, everybody is still waiting in line to pay over a $1M for some piece of McCrackerbox shit in that out of the way place known as Moss Beach. Most of the time too foggy and cold. And Devil’s Slide is inaccessible so often that travelling out of HMB is an utter hell for anyone dumb enough to commute into San Francisco.

Comment by togoplease
2006-09-03 15:04:51

Lol … right on all points re: moss landing… forget any P&G services if that goes down.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-03 15:06:20

I know I am right on Moss Beach. One friend lives there. Went to go visit there. It is like, where on earth is this place.

 
Comment by togoplease
2006-09-03 15:38:28

Moss beach nice place to visit… would not want to live there…
I mean where to you go for gas, grocery, supplies etc … place for hermits.

 
Comment by togoplease
2006-09-03 15:38:32

Moss beach nice place to visit… would not want to live there…
I mean where to you go for gas, grocery, supplies etc … place for hermits.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-03 18:37:43

Moss Beach good for visiting in quiet solitude at the beach. Bad place for living/working.

 
Comment by larenter
2006-09-03 18:44:06

I had fun today… I wore my real estate repellant tee shirt it says Virginia Law in orange on a navy blue shirt. You should see how the agents act when they speak to me! Very funny!! We stopped by an overpriced Hovnanian site off of the 14 in Canyon Country where the sales person started to say something to rebut my comments about the market going down and then she saw my shirt. Priceless!! These people are trying to justify $800k for a POS with a Canyon Country address!! Funny!! She asked which one of the models we were interested in. I felt like telling her I am waiting to buy one of the houses second-hand at a HUGE discount, but I didn’t. I have to get more of these Virginia Law shirts to wear at open houses. Keep this in mind when going to open houses - wear a law school alumni shirt and the POS realtors will leave you alone. Fun!!

Comment by BM
2006-09-03 20:58:31

Hey Noelle. What’s the connection between Virginia Law and Realtors? Bryce

Comment by Misstrial
2006-09-03 21:37:49

When people know that one is an attorney, they tend to be much more careful with how and what they say. So, it can be funny to watch them try to say things cautiously when they ordinarily exagerate.

Same thing goes for license plate thing: the idea is that you wouldn’t want to tailgate someone with “UCLA Law ” on the license plate frame.

Comment by BM
2006-09-04 15:55:34

All right. I thought there was something extra afforded by the Virginia origin, as if they had a well-known REIC suit program.

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Comment by robert
2006-09-03 18:46:59

It wasn’t hard to accept prices going up 10% year or more—something that’s obviously not sustainable! Impossibly so!

So it should be MUCH easier to accept prices going down! Just common sense.,

 
Comment by ddinoc
2006-09-03 19:23:16

Here’s a sample of what’s going on in the high-end condo market in OC.

“Marquee Park Place” is a pair of new luxury condo towers (on Michelson near Jamboree) in Irvine. I think they were originally priced from the $500Ks to over $1M. HOA dues are $1K to $1.2K per month. All 232 units were sold before the towers were completed.

Now, it appears that 66 units are currently for sale and 47 are for lease - that’s nearly half the units! Even if there are some duplicate for-sale listings, and some overlap between the for-sale and the for-lease units, those are some eye-popping numbers.

If you go to homeseekers.com and search on condos in the 92612 zip code, you’ll find page after page of these places. Many obviously have never been lived in. Of couse, most of the asking prices are still laughably inflated.

Leasing information is here: http://www.kagill.com/marquee/lease.htm

The few owners who have managed to lease their places are likely losing money. Some of the units are leasing for as little as $2200 per month.

These owners are going to be in world of hurt.

Comment by jckirlan
2006-09-03 20:06:25

Just checked it out. LOL. I know I’m just a North Carolina cracker but some of them are renting for $7800/month. I am not quite sure who would rent for that much. Then again, I’m a minimalist. Wants and needs. Wants and needs.

Comment by ddinoc
2006-09-03 20:17:31

$7800 is what the owner wants, but I doubt they’ll get it. A comparable unit on a lower floor was leased for “only” $6000. Even at the lower amount, the folks who rent these must have money to burn.

Comment by ddinoc
2006-09-03 20:18:54

Oops. Should have been “a comparable unit on a higher floor”…

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Comment by ChillintheOC
2006-09-03 20:19:57

Marquee Park Place overlooks the 405 Freeway literally! Who wouldn’t want to experience the wonderful din of cars going by coupled with the beautiful view of the freeway all for a meer $ 1000a month in HOA plus mortgage or rent?

I believe this was the Irvine Company’’s first residential highrise? They screwed up!

Comment by ddinoc
2006-09-03 20:23:11

You’re sure right about that. I heard they were planning two more towers. Do you know if they’re going ahead with them?

 
Comment by Nell
2006-09-03 21:23:11

This weekend I went to an open house for some very high end condos in Pasadena that are going to be completed in late October (according to the agent at the open house, however the sign that was out front used to say spring of 2006). These units are 3bd/2ba and the asking price is 2.1M and we could feel the bus go down the freeway exit that was no more than 100 feet from the master bedroom. This master bedroom had to share a bathroom with a second bedroom and its only closets were two very small ones in the adjoining hallway. I simply cannot beleive that anyone will pay anything even close to 2.1M to live there.

Comment by ddinoc
2006-09-03 21:34:17

Amazing! Were they conversions? I can’t imagine anyone designing them that way deliberately. And I certainly can’t imagine who would buy one.

 
 
Comment by jckirlan
2006-09-03 23:29:44

Well it looks like they screwed up just at the right time since, I gather that all of them were sold. I am sure huberous will win out over good sense next time and they will sit empty for a while if they decide to build more in the same place. Man, I need to move to CA and get a new job if people can buy these condos without a serious pucker factor.

 
 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2006-09-03 20:41:54

I’m sure they will. Here in the OC, denial still runs strong. I’m kind of experiencing deja vue in that I was here back in the early 90’s when the market tanked. I remember then you had real estate agents (both residential and commercial) insisting that OC would never see price declines. The numbers kept getting spun “positive” all the way down until things bottomed out around ‘96. Of course this was at a time when conventional financing still ruled and a $ 200 k house required at least a 10% down payment.

Comment by oc-ed
2006-09-04 01:15:45

And eventually lending will tighten up again here as more of the ugly side of the “sophisticated” lending instruments becomes apparent. It is, IMHO, then that we will see an acceleration of price declines here. Until that time the RE will continue to try to influence buyers to use these toxic loans to support the inflated prices. Based on the Business Week Map of Misery, 32% of the new or refi loans here have payment options. I wonder what the percentage is for overall ARMs? The pucker factor is rising in the OC.

 
 
Comment by Ken Best
2006-09-03 23:39:49

Desperation is setting in, check out the latest drop, 15K.
Should have gone below 399K to get noticed.

In Sacramento, MLS 60011176

Price Reduced: 02/21/06 — $485,500 to $480,000
Price Increased: 03/06/06 — $480,000 to $499,900
Price Reduced: 03/15/06 — $499,900 to $495,500
Price Reduced: 04/03/06 — $495,500 to $489,000
Price Reduced: 04/20/06 — $489,000 to $480,500
Price Reduced: 05/01/06 — $480,500 to $475,900
Price Reduced: 05/03/06 — $475,900 to $472,500
Price Reduced: 05/17/06 — $472,500 to $470,500
Price Reduced: 05/23/06 — $470,500 to $465,900
Price Reduced: 06/01/06 — $465,900 to $465,000
Price Reduced: 06/06/06 — $465,000 to $462,000
Price Reduced: 06/15/06 — $462,000 to $459,999
Price Reduced: 06/24/06 — $459,999 to $459,000
Price Reduced: 07/18/06 — $459,000 to $452,000
Price Reduced: 07/23/06 — $452,000 to $437,500
Price Reduced: 08/15/06 — $437,500 to $434,900
Price Reduced: 08/29/06 — $434,900 to $430,000
Price Reduced: 09/01/06 — $430,000 to $415,000

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-04 16:13:21

This is the Chinese water torture version of the Dutch auction :-)

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-05 04:38:03

anyone know Corpus Christi TX ?
have a relative there I’m trying to get to wait a year

 
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