‘Hyped Into Ignoring Basic Land Economics’
The Associated Press has this report on Las Vegas. “The Las Vegas housing market, the nation’s ninth largest, will be flat or slightly lower in 2006 because of a rising inventory of homes for sale, Merrill Lynch said Tuesday. ‘We do not expect selling conditions to improve until existing home listings approach their 2-year average of 18,800 units from their current level of 25,200,’ Kenneth Zener, an analyst at Merrill, wrote.”
“Affordability in the city reached a 22-year low in 2005. Homebuilders vastly expanded their work in the area since 2000, with the number of units built by MDC Holdings Inc. growing 45 percent and the number built by DR Horton Inc. growing 29 percent. Construction jobs represented 20 percent of total job growth in 2005, 29 percent in 2004 and 25 percent in 2003, Zener wrote.”
The Review Journal. “With as many as 185,000 homes now on the drawing board between Hoover Dam and Kingman, Ariz., Jim Holland, park planner for the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, warned that such development ‘could really change the character’ of the eastern part of the lake. Four of the eight master-planned communities now under consideration would fill the empty desert between U.S. 93 and the eastern end of the recreation area.”
“When Mardian Ranch and the Ranch at White Hills are finished, Mardian said, the combined developments will be twice the size of Summerlin. The nearby Rhodes Homes project, the Village at White Hills, would add another 20,000 homes to the mix.”
“Rhodes also has won the county’s preliminary approval for Golden Valley South, a 33,000-home, 5,750-acre development a few miles west of Kingman, and two proposed communities north of Kingman with about 59,000 homes spread over more than 9,200 acres.”
“Rhodes has opened four model homes and is now taking reservations from potential buyers at Golden Valley. ‘The question is, how much of this is real and how much is a mirage?’ said Kevin Davidson, a planner for Mohave County.”
“Davidson points to a census map that shows most of Mohave County, including much of the U.S. 93 corridor northwest of Kingman, as populated by fewer than six people per square mile or uninhabited altogether. ‘That tells me these developments are coming out of nowhere,’ he said. ‘It’s not like Henderson growing out of Vegas. It’s a different animal.’”
The Arizona Republic. “The drawdown of the housing bubble won’t stop this year, but the next few months may give an indication of its severity. ‘I think people are too optimistic about how quickly housing will recover,’ said developer Dennis Knight, a perceptive observer of industry trends and no doomsayer.”
“‘Most people you talk to have a vested interest in quick recovery,’ he continued. But the inventory of houses is high, and consumers are holding on to expectations about making handsome profits in selling their homes.”
“Knight also sees land as ‘vastly overspeculated.’ As happened on Central Avenue in the 1990 crash, landowners throughout the region are holding out for unrealistic prices. ‘People have been hyped into ignoring basic land economics,’ he said.”
“Meanwhile, the shakeout will affect not only the periphery of Pinal County and Buckeye, but also the central city, where every parcel lusts for a condo tower.”
“Arizona will add jobs at a healthy clip through 2007 but not at the gangbuster levels seen in 2005. Economists generally agree on that point. What they disagree on is how much the rate of job growth will slow during the next year and a half.”
“There are simply too many unknowns about the leaky housing bubble, shaky consumer confidence and fluctuating fuel prices. Workers in housing-related industries, such as construction and mortgage lending, would be hit particularly hard.”
“Rhodes also has won the county’s preliminary approval for Golden Valley South, a 33,000-home, 5,750-acre development a few miles west of Kingman, and two proposed communities north of Kingman with about 59,000 homes spread over more than 9,200 acres.”
That’s truly sick. The first is near 6 dwelling units/acre without infrastructure. The second a staggering 7 DU/ac. These are San Fernando Valley densities.
It’s actually worse than that. The acres include a golf course etc. The residential acreage is 3713.8 acres for 33264 homes with a maximum density of 25 per acre. They have approved him building 3 - one million gallon storage tanks. He is still awaiting approval to open his own water company, but because of Arizona law, he can still build the houses even without approval.
Oh, I know. I used the broad brush of sans infrastructure. High schools want 60 acres, middle 20, elementary 15. This place will need 2, 5 and 12 respectively. Then there’s roads and fire stations and golf courses and open space and cloverleafs and gas stations. 4/ac is dense, 6/ac is sick, what they plan here is child abuse.
Maybe he really should build a big prison and use windmill energy ,(I think it’s windy out there near Kingman ). He was just kidding , he really is going to build a prison .
>maximum density of 25 per acre.
That would *have* to be multifamily.
He should just build several hi-rise condos in the middle of the desert and be done with it.
Very high desnity, I believe 8 homes per an acre is the max that could fit. 25 per acre. would be a multi-story muilding, not including parking.
WTF is out there that this can’t be spread over a much larger area?
“Rhodes has opened four model homes and is now taking reservations from potential buyers at Golden Valley. ‘The question is, how much of this is real and how much is a mirage?’ said Kevin Davidson, a planner for Mohave County.”
Such Gluttany. I think I’ve mentioned all seven deadly sins in one week’s worth of article reading. It is sick, but it’s all a result of “phoney money” floating around for all this building without any speculative proof that there are enough real people left to fill them. Ah well, more pickens for us later on after the drastic price reduction.
- “With as many as 185,000 homes now on the drawing board between Hoover Dam and Kingman, Ariz.,
- Jim Holland, warned that such development ‘could really change the character’ of the eastern part of the lake.
******WHERE IS ALL THE WATER GOING TO COME FROM*****
The slurping sound is the lake.
Nope, all that water is spoken for. Colorado River Compact of 1922. Hell, we can’t even fill the share that Mexico was supposed to get. This guy was talking about pulling it from the underground aquifer. In an area that gets maybe 6 or 8 inches of rain a year. DOH!
where is all the LAND going to come from. Didn’t you hear, they ran out of land in AZ a few years ago.
It truly is astonishing the amount of building that is PLANNED. (who knows how much of this will actually ever break ground).
It just makes the “running out of land” argument even more rediculous.
Also, when will the US grow a brain, and stop building cities in uninhabitable places? What’s next, we’ll build a city on the Pacific Ocean? I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t these AZ plans area require HUGE investments of energy (to cool) and water and other natural resources to keep the desert from reclaiming the land?
it is astonishing how much we WASTE energy… from irrigating half of california, to colonizing the AZ and LV desert
unbelievable.
clouseau
It’s just that you hate western civilization so much, that….
Another funny thing about “running out of land” is that the biggest bubblers are CONDOs that don’t take any land! They can build zillions of them. You’re just buying the air between 6 walls.
Of course actual land prices (for large 60 acres + parcels) haven’t bubbled. Why? Because Harry Howmuchamonth can’t finance them.
House INspector, didn’t you hear? Someone wants to build a bridge from LA to Honolulu (kidding). On top of that wasn’t some guy going to build that stupid floating boat city or whatever where you could live at sea for ever or until the next big tsunami sunk the boat (true story)? Either way, it is amazing where developers are building. That place in Arizona has to be about 115 degress in the winter, let alone the summer. Idiotic!
Where are the jobs going to come from?
Homebuilding, of course
Laundry services.
there will be lots of soiled clothing to wash if the “bubble bursts!”
Escort services
If your not familiar with these pats..one might get the idea that From Kingman to Henderson is just a stones throw.
185,000 homes are going to be clustered near the Hoover Dam- IMO
Kingman is nearly a 100 mile drive from Vegas.
The banks or people that finance this pie in the sky project deserve to go broke!
With the Real Estae market collpsing because every body that can afford a home has at least one..And everyone that “wanted” a home or a piece of the action has taken theirs…..No body is left to close on this colosally bad idea.
Reminds me of the gold and silver boom towns in the 1800’s. Problem here is there isn’t any gold or silver to even temporarily get people to move to that area.
Don’t they have a road named “Hermit Road” or some such on that 100 mile stretch between Kingman and Hoover Dam? It’s just a few random trailers and gas stations between Kingman and Hoover Dam.
Kingman is a very windy armpit of a city. I believe the elevation is at least 3000 feet so it’s not 115 there in the summer but never the less, it sucks.
I sometimes drive I-40 from Albuquerque to Barstow, and although Kingman has some activity (and isn’t it a spring training city?), the fact is, it is in the middle of nowhere. Completely a product of the cheap oil age. When the cheap oil runs out, I really fear for places like Kingman, especially if those super large developments get built. It’s criminal and shows how the local leaders are in pockets of developers.
In 100 years they will be the ghost towns our great grandkids will visit, like we do now with old western mining towns.
“although Kingman has some activity (and isn’t it a spring training city?)”
Major league baseball spring training? No.
Cactus League is in Metro Phoenix, except for the Diamondbacks/White Sox/Rockies in Tucson. The rest. . . Grapefruit League in various Florida cities.
“There are simply too many unknowns about the leaky housing bubble, shaky consumer confidence and fluctuating fuel prices. Workers in housing-related industries, such as construction and mortgage lending, would be hit particularly hard.”
Yeah right…………good read see below
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HomePriceReport.aspx
“The market has turned in both of these areas nothing is moving unless you give it away.”
This what sellers just don’t get. They are not “giving it away”. You don’t have to “give it away”. They just need to offer it at a price that someone is willing to pay. That price may be more or less than the seller paid for it, but that’s life. Too bad all of these people bought into the “real estate never goes down” rhetoric.
Alongside that article is a sidebar: Cool Tools… among them, ” Tap your House for Extra Money”
flat to slightly lower ”
prices are already lower,dude
I think someone must have some left over granite:
http://www.slate.com/id/2149016/entry/0/
This whole freaken country is corrupt.
I’m embarrassed to be considered a Californian. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Sad thing is that the voters in Beverly Hills will probably approve this nonsense.
What next gold pavements? A slice of Heaven on Earth.
8 foot sections of polished, bull-nosed granite from China are selling at $7 sq. ft. Granite is now cheaper than tile.
Granite will soon be as unfashionable as avocado-green linoleum and mustard yellow refrigerators.
I resent that. I have a mustard yellow refrig in the garage that I keep my Bass and Bud Light in. Maybe a sixer of Heinekens as well. Extra worms and anchovies left over. Every guy should have one.
I never understood all the hate for Formica anyway
Mort posts “This whole freaken country is corrupt.”
I sadly agree. I am comming to the point, will all the rot, all the failed lessons unlearned. That America is less of a “Country” than a place to make money.
From all over the world they come, to beg, borrow, or steal. This may have less to do with the HB…… But it is a bussiness fact.
It seemes everybody wants to be, who they were in the “old Country’ and screw America. Folks when I saw what happened with the group of Brit born…. secound gen. would be bombers of 10-12 planes….. Wake up call.
Just say these rats did the deed? What would we be talking about now? DJ at 900 an S&P at 700? Housing prices lower than whale shit inside of one month?
Another terrorist attack will have a severe negative effect on the stock market (consumer confidence shaken, mass fear of flying or going to store, etc).
However, in my opinion, it may well have a net positive effect on fixed assets (housing)—-particularly if the FED repeats the drastic interest rate cuts of 2001/2002 again to avert another inevitable recession.
Any contrasting viewpoints?
Look forward to more fake terror alerts as we near the mid-term elections. The fearmongers will try to continue to scare Americans into believing the GOP is the only party that can protect us. The closer you look into the lies of the administration the less I believe anything that comes out of their mouth. There are at least 30% of Americans who haven’t figured this out yet (approval ratings). The rest of us are all Nazi symphothizers.
I know OT but we’ll see what strange tricks are pulled in the name of politics and not the free market. This is what scares me the most about the current economy. It has everything to do with govt manipulation and nothing to do with Adam Smith’s “invisible hand.”
I think the majority of these issues are being caused by born-and-bred Americans.
Where are all of the buyers going to come from for these new homes? And where are the buyers (assuming there are any) going to work?
They are probably looking at a closed economy.
There going to put bio domes over each tract and have self sustaining economies. It is the new economic model like in Florida, but with a dome and nobody can leave.
Don’t worry about FL, we have an endless influx of people with millions in the bank to buy up all those 5000 sq/ft homes, and condos in the middle of the city (where you can’t walk outside after dark).
Its a new economic model in FL, the fundamentals no longer apply. We are different.
Yeah, we sure are.. More fuxed then just about anywhere else in this coming collapse. Come on, median HH income of 50-60K (household, not personal), median home price of 400K. Sure, that makes sense.. Yeah, sure it does.
Naah, more like the Thunderdome of the Mad Max series. Two will enter, only one will leave.
If you build them, people/jobs/everything else will come. Don’t you get it by now?
For some reason builders throughout Mohave County just don’t get it. The real estate outlook on the national level is just plain bleak. They keep building like crazy in BHC & other River cities like there’s no tomorrow. Golden Valley! Give me a break.. I honestly don’t think they know whats going on across the country. I think come the 2nd qtr 07, they will be in a hurtlocker big time if not sooner..
Our country needs more kids like this:
http://www.smudailycampus.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2006/09/05/44fce53a48fb8
rock on!
And the SMU kid is a college freshman. Way to go, kid!
What is John Jose’s handled here?
Come on, speak up we don’t bite, unless you are a perma-bull.
This kid obviously was taught early on about finances. I applaud those who took the time to teach him some fundamentals. Maybe there is hope for the future of this country. Then again, maybe ….
smart kid hopefully the next spokesman for the nar
He sounds too smart and honest to be the next head of the NAR, but if he runs for political office, he’s got my vote.
Nice to see well-written work from such a bright young kid, for a change.
Damn…perhaps a position at the Fed!
” housing shock is a necessary evil that homeowners should reconcile themselves to and start preparing for immediately.”
not bad for a first year finance major….way to go go kid!
“Workers in housing-related industries, such as construction and mortgage lending, would be hit particularly hard.”
Housing related? That’s only 1/3 of Phoenix’s economy. That shouldn’t hurt too much.
OMG, that big empty blank piece of nothing is what is between hoover and Kingman (native american word for “ArmPit”).
For anyone who has not been through there, it is a vacant nothing, with a sumptuous small town called “Chloride” (native american word for “Anus Outhanging Object”). Half a dozen trailers and a few shacks.
My mind has officially shut down, I can’t comprehend who would but cracker boxes there.
My mind has officially shut down, I can’t comprehend who would but cracker boxes there.
Nobody “buys”…
It’s a bogus development deal where the principal developers rake off a few mil up front based on a bogus absorption analysis prepared by a crooked appraiser.
Fake pic’s are provided in the report, some Enron-type financial numbers are plugged into the build-up of a ficticious capitalization rate, and voila…”Chloride Estates…Gateway to the American Dream”.
The whole mess then gets packaged, marketed, and pre-sold to some foreign MBS wholesale goobers, domestic money launderers, junk-bond dealers, or a backwoods pension fund.
How else do you think all this shit-azz development in crappy location’s takes place???
The whole system is corrupt-from the politicos in DC right on down to the dirt-bag appraiser.
“The whole system is corrupt-from the politicos in DC right on down to the dirt-bag appraiser. ”
Now somebody is talking my language! You nailed it!
hd74man you are so correct. No one in there right mind is going to live there. Much of what passes throughout the 40 freeway in the smaller gas station towns is nothing but double wides. How on earth is anyone going to live in a place that is between Kingman and the Hoover Dam? When I saw that report on MSN last week I couldn’t believe it. Made me sick. Yeah, like they are ever going to get a college started there. For what, blooming realtwhores?
185,000 homes in Kingman AZ? Where are they going to work? Do they really expect 300,000+ wealthy baby boomers to want to retire there (if there are 300K wealthy boomers ready to retire)? I would like to know how many bottles of Jack Daniels were consumed, and by how many people, prior to this ludicrous idea and any such approval? A few folks had to have passed out drunk.
Unfortunately for all of us, not all of them did (pass out drunk).
McCain will take the money. Well call him the Kingman One.
4775 Sugarhill Drive, Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 $1,997,000*
Status: ACT Orig Price: $2,585,000
Check this out. nearly a 600K reduction. Rolling Hills estates a city on that hill you see flying into LAX on pilot side assuming you fly in from west.
Anyone with a better description of Palos Verdes Please suggest.
Calling PV Tom for the defense of PV.
Tell me again about the fairytale of how coastal RE is special and won’t bust.
Palos Verdes is a very special coastal fairy tale of a place which is why this will have such a dramatic and bloody impact there. By the time this is done with the tale of the $2.585 million dollar dream estate will read like a Brothers Grim horror yarn.
Except for the half of Palos Verdes that is sliding into the sea.
Portuguese Bend Landslide
Wikipedia on Portuguese Bend
Oh gee, I don’t know. Maybe their top rated school district? Really, are you fricking kinding me??? I won’t even start…
whereas texas is just plain hot, you could probably survive (meaning not die) without a/c.
the mojave otoh gets 120 all the friggen time. you will die if there is some major interruption to the power grid out there.
of course, one could theoretically jump in the hoover lake in a real emergency
My GF went on a roadtrip this summer to this area. She said the same thing about a power interruption. You’ll all die!
My brother bought a used RV that turned out to have coach roaches. It was summer and the RV was parked near Lake Mead. He turned the A/C off and that took care of the problem permanently, eggs and adults.
Whatever happened to a bale of hay, some water, chicken wire and a fan?
Evaporative cooling does work in that climate. Take the dew point and the ambient temperature and average them. That will be the approximate temperature out of the swamp cooler. Takes about one sixth of the electrical power of refrigeration cooling.
Between Kingman and the Hoover dam?!? Who is going to live there; where are you going to commute to? This has got to be exurban taken to its most extreme. Cote, please explain this, because I sure as hell don’t get it. There is literally nothing out there but cactus and dust. Eskimos have more common sense than any potential purchaser of these homes.
This is the new new urbanism. The old new urbanism having been a miserable failure. The “big idea” is to create a complete and integrated top down built urban environment on a sustainable model using advanced planning techniques and employing economies of scale to promote best practices in cenurban design. Ewwww, now I have to take a shower. These jerks at the top levels of the planning department in collusion with developers are purposefully jamming people together and deliberately limiting their choice in prefered development patterns. Don’t get me started.
These jerks at the top levels of the planning department in collusion with developers are purposefully jamming people together and deliberately limiting their choice in prefered development patterns.
I fight this on a daily basis. I’m losing.
I’ve been fighting this for DECADES and I am losing as well.
Sort of. There are real issues here, but the need genuine debate.
Planners, real ones anyway, put the growth and homes where the people are and are moving. Social engineers may employ planners to accomplish certain goals, and that seems what you are talking about.
People don’t like the realities of providing services, but it costs money to put down and keep up roads, to keep power and water flowing and so on. Most people don’t want to pay what it costs, so planners are anxious to create as much density as possible to mitigate these out of control costs. There are a bunch of ways it might be possible to deal with this, but blaming planners isn’t going to solve the underlying problem.
New Urbanism relates to a whole range of agendas from density issues to transportation. The ratio of big roads to small, how many lanes, exactly what signage and so on are a big part of this and many of the common changes that some planners might think of as being near the core of New Urbanism might not even be all that controversial for many. Are bulb outs to make life easier for pedestrians really all that radical, expensive, and intrusive? If you want to make a believable argument against some kind of planner conspiracy then you probably need to take more care with your terms.
Mole Man — no personal disrespect intended, but the planners I have seen and worked with have a personal agenda that doesn’t include one teardrop for the wishes of the people who will be living in their area. Their principal goal is to corral people into ever-smaller clusters, population zones, while they work with malleable politicianss to condemn or buy up (with the taxpayer’s own money) endless pieces of property that are pieces in their utopian no-humans-allowed green zones.
IMHO, whatever benefit planners may render is so much offset by their Orwellian passion for control and herding of the unwashed, that they should be ignored if they cannot be banished. 1880s in this country — they’d be tarred and feathered and if they came back, they’d be shot, hung or tied to a bull’s rear leg. Again IMO, the 1880s was a good time in this country.
BTW — if you hung all recalcitrant planners tomorrow, you’d have no problems other than landfill. Zoning/land usage decisions are properly the responsibility of your local elected politicians and they all know the rope is there for them, too. Except that you can get back at the politicians more readily — thus they love planners because they can shrug their shoulders and act as if the planners’ advice is divine writ. Get some balls before they get all of your land.
I have been to planning department meetings myself . They are rigged . I wonder who is paying who off .
“sustainable”!?!
This Golden Valley deal just ain’t going to happen. Hello? Infrastructure? There’s none. The existing “homes” in that area are primarily meth labs. And don’t even think about tapping AZ water…there’s about 2 zillion lawsuits now regarding water rights between Nevada, AZ, and CA.
This will be entertaining to watch, though.
These clowns will become delicious fodder for forums like this.
Viva Kingman!
Golden Valley had its purpose. People could buy an acre for a few thousand or a large parcel for a couple hundred an acre. They could build a small house or put a manufactured home on the lot and live relatively cheaply. A lot of them lived off the grid, with solar power and hauled water, most roads are still dirt. For retirees and low income families, it worked. Now the lots are 50,000 and up, 40 acre parcels that sold a couple of years ago for 1,000 per acre have resold for over 1 million. They still have no services and some don’t even have access roads of any sort. Houses that sold new for 80,000, 2 years ago, are selling for 200,000 and more.
Florida swampland except with drywashes and gilas instead of aligators.
shari,
it sounds like you know the area well…and I mean no offense to whomever lives there and loves it…but as a native, I tend to really get spitball mad at what has happened to our state. I can’t walk thru my hometown anymore and recognize anyone…the state is full of wannabe real estate moguls and while I’ll always love AZ, I cannot wait to get the hell out.
We moved to Kingman about a year and a half ago to retire. We had not been here for about 8 months prior to that time. We did not expect homes to have doubled and even tripled in price in that prior year. Even building is not an option as lots are at least 10 times what they were 2 years ago. Realtors are truly obnoxious in their mantra of “we’ve been discovered, prices will never be reasonable to the locals again.” We are renting and considering our options. If the prices don’t go down, we’ll have to move on.
The thing about Golden Valley, is it is considered the bottom rung on the ladder. Most local people would never live there if they could avoid it, but it was an option for those without a choice or those who liked to live off the grid with “no rules”. Now there is no where in the county for those “pioneers”.
Hint: When the place gets renamed from “cattle skull gulch” or “hangman’s canyon” or “gila bend” to “Golden anything” or Anything Estates” or “Anything Vistas” there’s trubble acomin’.
>live off the grid with “no rules”
Wonder Valley (east of 29 palms)…
Or if you *really* want to get away from it all, take National Trails Highway, and continue east from Amboy (visit the Amboy crater while you are there)…after you pass Cadiz, there is natural beauty, the railroad, and NOTHING. And there are *many* valleys similar to this in eastern Cali. If you want to be in the middle of nowhere, there are still places to get it.
I’ve lived in Az for fifteen years. Kingman has always been known as a place to stop for gas and water if you are driving from Phoenix to Las Vegas. Not to offend anyone who lives there, but I find it hard to believe it will ever be anything more than that.
I lived in Wonder Valley for two years. It’s part of 29 Palms and it was only a ten minute drive to town to “downtown” 29 Palms where there’s businesses and a library and post office and two supermarkets. We had a well and a swamp cooler that worked nicely. It’s not a bad place to live if you want to live cheaply in the desert. I sold my house to a friend who is really happy with it.
Those places out in the desert by Kingman, that’s another story. There’s no infrastructure out there and I sure wouldn’t rely on developers to put one in.
From there I moved to Downtown Toronto. Quite a change.
Sorry to break the news to you, Catherine, but things outside of Arizona aren’t any better than they are here.
Wow, and to think people are still buying in AZ, can you say “Florida 1929?” LOL
By 1929 things had been dead in Florida for a couple of years. The Florida land rush ended in 1926 when the Great Miami Hurricane slammed a thirty foot wall of water into the area destroying much of the speculative construction killing around 400 and leaving around 50,000 homeless. The possibility of a thirty foot wall of water destroying Kingman or any other town in Arizona is actually rather remote.
Was this gem from the MSM posted?
Five More Money Mistakes to Avoid
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/moneymatters/8931
1. Funding early retirement with a home equity line of credit.
Given the big run-up in real estate values over the past five years, many of you are sitting on sizeable home equity. That’s great. What isn’t so great is that some equity-rich homeowners are hell-bent on living off that equity.
This seems especially alluring to men, who use the equity as an escape hatch. They feel emboldened to quit their jobs and not work. Or quit their jobs and start their own business. Or keep their jobs and use the home equity to buy that $60,000 sports car they “deserve” for working so hard. Essentially, they view their home equity as an ATM waiting to be tapped.
2. Not paying off the mortgage early.
Men tend to hate this idea. They love leverage, especially when it comes with a nice tax break from Uncle Sam. At the same time, most women will tell you the one security blanket that would make them feel safest is knowing they would always have a home to live in.
An alarming 46 percent of women respondents to a recent survey sponsored by Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America said that the prospect of becoming a “bag lady” weighs heavily on them. Women view their home as shelter; men view it as a tax shelter. So who’s right?
i know someone that took a bath in blood in the nasdaq tub a few years back. he did make a mint on lucent stock and cashed out a bunch to buy an apartment in NYC for $75000 back in 1997. he sold it, took the cash and bought a townhome out west by the rockies last year and had $100,000 left over for a new RAV4. he lives on social security now which is enough to pay the taxes and utilities and a few other bills. Hasn’t worked in a year along with my mom. no need to. she is almost 60 and needs a break.
i read about all these complicated things for smart people about all these cool loans that give you a lot of money in exchange for your home, why bother?
If he paid $100K for a RAV4, tell him I have a nice Jeep Liberty he might be interested in.
it had so many options, even the dealer didn’t know about them
It is funny how Suzi Orman is now saying these things. Just 2 years ago she was pumping and dumping the housing market. Same thing she did back years ago by recommending to buy the QQQQ in september of 2000, just before the second Nasdaq meltdown.
Hi Guys,
I got to thinking about this the other day. When people know they have to sell because of the loan they got into a couple years ago. First they’ll get with a realtor. Once they see what their house is worth in todays market, and see the fees, They might try to sale it themselves.
Thinking this might be the case, I went onto one of those ( for sale by owner web sites ) I decided to look in Co, because it was leading the nation in defaults. Boy, what an eye opener!!!!!!!!
Here’s the site I logged into. Check this out for your selves. Scary!!!!!
http://www.forsalebyowner.com/
does anyone have that list that always used to be shown on here of the lenders that were most exposed to option arms. I think WaMu was first and maybe Wachovia second……cant remember. I want to buy some LEAPS (puts obviously) tomorrow and forgot which were the top 3-5 companies. Anywho on a related note LEO WANTA’s 4.5 trillion needs to be distrubted by thursday Sept 7th (2 days) or China will really slow the pace of bond buying, and you know what that means.
I just hope Paulson Is doing a good job over there stiring the pot……
Jasunny:
Where did you see a story on “LEO WANTA” recently?
When did this relate to China?
Ahhhhhh so you know the saga. Well as you may know he has been under lock and key the past …..well my whole lifetime prettymuch, but this guy interviews him and other officials at amerigroup (wanta’s trust). Thursday is the day so we’ll see and if it goes through Bond yields will shoot so high so fast, the housing bubble will pop fully by like aaaaa monday….lol
http://www.arcticbeacon.com/
This one has links to the Wisc. court records and everything else pertaining.
It related to China just recently I just found out about this date today. A few countries are supposed to be returned money, Greece 5 bill, France, 5 I think, China is to get 30 bill I think, and even Russia is to get 30 billion. Wierd I know I guess the Chineese and the Russians themselves are getting credit for killing the Ruble.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/wanta.htm
Well if this takes place the US economy will take place somewhere else…..and the housing market.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/wanta.htm
Ahhh so you know the saga. Poor guy has been locked up most my life. Well I guess a couple of countries are due a little for wrecking the Ruble. Greece is to get 5 bill, France 5 bill I think, China and Russia themselves!!!yeah i know Russia are to get 30 bill each. China demanded that they get paied by this thursday or they shut off the spigit of US debt Buying. You know what that means for yields and the housing market.
http://www.arcticbeacon.com/
This guy interviews Wanta frequently, and other officals from Amerigroup (Wanta’s trust). Wanta got 4.5 of the full 27.5 (70 with intrest)trill, but the feds are illegially blocking the funds to enter the treasury.
Thats in a nutshell.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/wanta.htm
If there was something big the Chinese were going to do in 2 days wouldn’t there be some kind of 1 paragraph story on it over on Xinhua?
I’ve been buying puts on the following banks over the last two weeks. NDE- Indymac Bank, WM- Washington Mutual, HBC-HSBC holdings (A London based bank, but is one of the top ARM holders in CA through other banks) CORS- Corus bank, FITB- Fifth Third Bank, WB- Wachovia (Just merged with Golden West Bank which has a large CA ARM exposure) All have a large option ARM portfolio, or most of their mortgage business in CA, FLA etc…
Who is the Merrill Lynch NUTCASE?
Real estate will turn around when the 2 yr, average avialbility returns to around 18000? This he claims is a 2 year average>?
Yes Vegas has over 25,000 MLS listings but Gee it had 2500 sales in July.
Yes in 2004 it had only 4000 listings then in 4/05 it zumed to 10,000…..
This 18,000 average is total Bull. These listings {18k} average sale when compared to average sale per month of 4000….tranlates to a 4 month supply…But sales @ 2500/mo. 25,000 MLS available ITS A 10 MONTH SUPPLY.
And just over the Hoover Dam they are planning another 185,000 units…Add another 7 yrs.
Let’s not forget the 40,000 Condos’ on the drawing board or on a crane down on the Strip!
That crane might have a wrecking ball hanging on the end of it soon.
Great..a 3 year housing supply with a 3 DAY WATER supply in the frigging DESERT…Make sense to the guys leaving town with the bags of money..Honest !
I’ve been watching some of those housing shows like “buy me” lately. A common theme seems to have emerged. The seller always starts out all arrogant with a high price for a pos house with a cracked foundation and rotten woodwork. They always act as if they are dealing from a position of strength and “they’re not giving it away”. Then they get an initial offer below asking and they come back with a counter somewhere in between asking and initial offering. The prospective buyer then responds by rescinding their offer altogether. Well, then the SHTF. The truth later comes out that the seller is broke and they have no wiggle room whatsoever on the price. They shout at their agent and cuss and get drunk, whatever. I’m like, hey a minute ago you were all cocky and telling the buyer to take his lowball offer and stick it where the sun don’t shine and then the very next minute you come crawling back, groveling for an offer just a few measly thou higher. People are so full of crap, it makes me want to puke. Yeah, you’re the big bad seller, huh? Well, better check yer spurs at the bar there cowboy.
So does anyone have that list ..
Thank you
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/wanta.htm
Ahhh so you know the saga. Poor guy has been locked up most my life. Well I guess a couple of countries are due a little for wrecking the Ruble. Greece is to get 5 bill, France 5 bill I think, China and Russia themselves!!!yeah i know Russia are to get 30 bill each. China demanded that they get paied by this thursday or they shut off the spigit of US debt Buying. You know what that means for yields and the housing market.
http://www.arcticbeacon.com/
This guy interviews Wanta frequently, and other officals from Amerigroup (Wanta’s trust). Wanta got 4.5 of the full 27.5 (70 with intrest)trill, but the feds are illegially blocking the funds to enter the treasury.
Thats in a nutshell.
The entire middle section of the country is depopulating. From Texas to Montana, towns are dying. Within a few decades, all that will remain on the Great Plains are the established metro areas. Party time for the bison and coyotes and prairie dogs.
It’s a mystery to me why people would rush off to live in the torrid desert when there are hundreds of pleasant small towns filled with $20,000 houses. Everything is already in place in these towns. The infrastructure, the utilities, the hospitals. But these towns are all doomed.
I’ve driven through Kingman before. I can see why people want to live in Flagstaff. But not Kingman. Is living in a place where having air conditioning is a life or death matter any better than living in a place like (take your pick… Scottsbluff, Nebraska) that requires heating in the winter?
There’s a disconnect and I am not picking up on it.
Great point. Some idealists have argued for a “Buffalo Commons:” returning the land to open prairie and reintroducing native species.
Fine with me as long as we can take away their senate seats as well.
The plan is for Kingman to become a bedroom community for Vegas. The new bridge over the canyon, bypassing Hoover Dam is already under construction. People will ‘commute’ to Vegas to work but live here.
And we all thought that living in Victorville and commuting to LA was nuts.
If any of you are in San Diego. Tune into FOX 6 News tonight at 10:00. I saw a commercial they did an undercover investigation on a realtor and the realtor EXPLODED and started to beat up the reporter. Right in front of the camera, like attacked him in broad daylight.
Hopefully someone can do a vid cap. The realtors are getting angry at the media. Yea, its the MEDIA’s fault.
Is that Fox6 news? I am going to look in the morning for a video clip.
Here is the reporter. I have just been watching clips. The realtor sucker punched him bad, he was REALLY bloody then the real fight began and they went to the ground. This guy was a mess, I couldn’t find a video on the Fox6 site right now but I emailed the reporter:
Here is the guy:
http://tinyurl.com/fwtnm
My neighbor said she saw it live over on Pearl and Draper across from Wahoo’s Fish Tacos. Four police cruisers on the scene and everything. I heard the story was about the guy being a slumlord (although you can’t rule out portfolio-related stress as an aggravating condition.)
Chris,
Thanks. I will watch it.
here’s the link … incredible
http://www.fox6.com/news/
probably see more of these stories in the coming months. Note the FBI is starting to crack down on mortgage fraud. a year or so ago, the FBI called this issue, an “epidemic” that it was putting more resources to investigate.
Yes, how you want to bet that the properties involved were majorly inflated in order to extract the HELOC money.
House way above in 90274 4775 Sugarhill, RPV, CA
Masongate’s best and most usable lot,4 bed, 4 bath, 4 car garage, 3 fireplaces lr,mb,kitchen. Pool,spa,barn with wash pad,within the last 5 yrs. New doors,windows, exterior stucco,paint, brick work,5 sets french doors to patio, within 1yr new roof, copper plumb. Circle drive plus parking for 16 + cars.Beatuiful grounds enterainers delight. Home needs interior paint and carpet.Property sold as is.
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 06/12/06 — $2,585,000 to $2,475,000
Price Reduced: 07/25/06 — $2,475,000 to $2,375,000
Price Reduced: 08/17/06 — $2,375,000 to $2,250,000
Price Reduced: 08/30/06 — $2,250,000 to $2,150,000
Price Reduced: 09/05/06 — $2,150,000 to $1,997,000
“Home Prices Fall in Nearly One-Fourth of Metropolitan Regions”
–
Yup, it is becoming more mainstream every day!
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/06/realestate/06home.html
OT:
Who needs a soft landing?
“Well, what if an “overheating” economy doesn’t automatically lead to runaway inflation? What if the Phillips Curve is broken? Doesn’t that mean that the Fed should stop plunging the economy into a recession or “soft landing” every time it looks like inflation might be stirring? “
From NYtimes article - “Ms. Chen noted that the index showed that prices were still rising in much of California, Arizona and Florida, states that experienced some of the biggest rises during the recent boom. But that may be in part a result of the fact that the government’s home price measure does not include homes with mortgages greater than $417,000.”
MAY BE in part????? UH, look at california home prices - you cant buy a single one in LA SF SD without a non conforming loan. It’s not maybe. Honestly, the news is so far behind reality on this it is truly scary.
I can see Hollywood at work already:
“Shootout at Condo Gulch”
Clint Eastwood, your agent is on the phone…
Having driven from Hoover Dam to Kingman before, this story may be the one I remember most as the point when the ridiculousness of the bubble when from fourth to fifth gear…I really almost don’t know what to say about it.